Belfer Center Newsletter Fall/Winter 2018 by Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Fall/Winter 2018–2019

20 61 54 6E 20 65 72 74 AF 5F 75 65 33 22 20 6E 65 65 67 69 20 20 79 79

www.belfercenter.org

6D 75 73 74 20 6D 61 6E 61 67 65 20 69 74 2E 20 54 6F 20 63 72 65 74 65 20 61 20 66 75 74 75 72 65 20 77 68 65 72 65 20 74 65 63 68 65 63 68 6E 6F 6C 6F 67 69 63 61 6C E2 80 AF INEQUALITY 63 68 61 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 67 65 20 68 61 73 20 62 72 6F 75 67 68 74 69 6D 6D 65 61 73 75 72 61 62 ETHICS 6C 65 20 62 PRIVACY 65 6E 66 69 74 73 20 TRADE 74 6F 20 62 69 6C 6C 69 6F 6E 73 20 74 68 6F 75 67 68 20 69 6D 70 SINGULARITY 72 6F 76 65 64 20 68 65 61 6C GENOMIC EDITING 68 2C 20 70 72 6F 64 75 63 74 69 76 69 74 79 2C 20 61 6E 64 E2 80 AF 63 6F 6E 76 65 6E 69 65 6E 63 65 2E 20 59 65 74 20 61 73 20 72 65 63 65 6E 74 E2 80 AF 65 76 65 6E 74 73 E2 80 68 61 76 65 20 73 68 6F 77 6E 2C 20 75 6E 6C 65 73 73 E2 80 AF 77 20 61 63 74 69 76 65 6C 79 20 6D 61 6E 61 67 65 20 74 68 65 69 72 20 72 69 73 6B 73 20 74 6F 20 73 6F 63 69 65 74 79 2C 20 6E 65 77 20 74 65 63 68 6E 6F 6C 6F 67 69 65 73 20 6D 61 79 20 61 6C 73 6F 62 72 69 6E 67 20 75 6E 66 6F 72 ROBOTICS 65 73 65 PROPAGANDA 65 20 64 65 73 TRANSPORTATION 74 72 75 63 74 69 76 65 20 63 6F 6E 73 71 75 65 6E 63 65 73 2E 20 4D 61 6B 69 6E UNEMPLOYMENT 67 20 74 63 68 6E 6F 6C 6F 67 SOCIAL NETWORKING 69 63 61 6C 20 63 68 61 6E 65 20 AF 70 6F 73 69 74 69 76 65 20 66 6F 72 20 61 CHINA 6C 6C 20 PERSONALIZED MEDICINE 74 20 74 68 65 20 63 72 69 74 69 63 61 6C 63 68 61 6C 6C 65 6E 67 65 20 6F 66 20 6F 75 72 20 74 69 6D 65 2E 57 65 20 6F 75 72 73 65 6C 76 65 73 20 2D 20 6E 6F 74 20 6F 6E 6C 20 68 Center’s 65 20 6C 6F 67 69 63 20 6F 66 20 64 69 73 63 6F 76 65 72 The74 Belfer 20 61 6E 64 20 6D 61 72 6B 65 74 20 66 6F 72 63 65 73 20 2D 20 6D

Technology and Public Purpose Project

Encouraging a new approach to technological change that prioritizes public good

Technological change has brought immeasurable benefits to billions through improved health, productivity, and convenience. Yet as recent events have shown, unless we actively manage their risks to society, new technologies may also bring unforeseen destructive consequences. CONTINUED ON PAGE 4 »

INSIDE: Arctic & Climate Change · Protecting Elections · Decarbonizing China

From the Director A

s one of few scientist professors at Harvard Kennedy School in the 1980s, I sometimes gave a lecture on climate change in the School’s only survey course on technology. At the time, the issue struck many of my students as exotic and somewhat obscure. But with the arrival of fellow physicist John Holdren in the 1990s to head the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology, and Public Policy project, climate change became a Center focal point. Today, the Kennedy School offers a diverse array of climate-related courses and research.

with his colleagues Bill Clark, David Keith, Henry Lee, Halla Hrund Logadóttir, Venky Narayanamurti, Dan Schrag, and Rob Stavins, John is leveraging Harvard’s unmatched convening power to confront this urgent challenge. Just last month, he co-led a delegation including 24 Harvard students to Iceland as part of the Arctic Circle Assembly. Far beyond taking notes, these students met with the president of Iceland and the interior minister for Arctic affairs and presented ideas to 2,000 government officials, scientific leaders, and NGOs from all over the Northern Hemisphere.

Aditi Kumar Named Center’s New Executive Director Eric and I are very pleased to welcome Aditi Kumar, who has joined us as Executive Director of the Belfer Center. From her public service at the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury to her work with

John Holdren speaks at the Arctic Circle Assembly 2018 in Reykjavík. See page 6 for more.

“John has brought lasting impact to virtually the entire range of technology and public purpose.”

senior business and public-sector leaders at Oliver Wyman and at the World Economic Forum, Aditi brings a rich set of experiences and talents to help lead the Belfer Center. In particular, her remarkable record of managing complex projects and high-performing teams, along with her scholarship on international affairs and financial and economic policy, gives her that rare blend of skills to excel as both a senior administrator and thought leader. Aditi has conducted extensive research

The harmful effects of unchecked carbon emissions are now well integrated into public policy and debate, in large part because of the tireless work by John who took a leave from the Kennedy School from 2009–2016 to serve as President Obama’s Science Advisor. From the control of nuclear fissile material and energy policy to R&D, economic competitiveness, and climate change, John has brought lasting impact to virtually the entire range of technology and public purpose. Government service in Washington is exhausting, but John served as Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and as Science Advisor for eight years. In doing so, he helped set in motion some of the most consequential environmental initiatives in history. Decades hence, we’ll all thank him for his unstinting commitment to far-sighted policies. Today, we’re mindful that progress is not assured. Political winds shift; agreements can be broken. Since the best remedy for anxiety is action, John has redoubled his efforts since his return to the School and the Belfer Center in 2016. Together

In Iceland, these students saw firsthand what John has long known: climate change isn’t a theory, prediction, or trend—it’s a dramatic reality caused by carbon and other changes that is disrupting everything from navigation and trade to national security, indigenous communities, and resource management. Thanks to John, we still have a chance to make a difference before it’s too late.

and spoken about topics related to financial

* * * The Belfer Center is growing, and I want to extend a few special welcomes to people and programs that have recently joined our family:

Born in India, Aditi moved to Missouri at age

• Aditi Kumar is our new Executive Director.

regulation, macroeconomic policy, fintech, and blockchain, and we expect she’ll contribute substantially to the Center’s world-class research. An alumna of Harvard, Aditi earned dual degrees from Harvard’s Kennedy School and Business School with Masters in Public Policy and Business Administration, respectively. 10 and began quickly to distinguish herself. She holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics and a Bachelor of Arts in International Studies from the University of Pennsylvania’s Huntsman Program.

• digital HKS, led by David Eaves, strengthens

“I’m thrilled to have this opportunity to

our already formidable research in this area.

return to the Kennedy School and work closely

• The esteemed National Security Fellows

with the professors and mentors who shaped

program, run by Gen. Bill Rapp, is now

my time here,” Aditi said. “The Belfer Center

officially part of the Belfer Center.

is an influential contributor to the dialogue on

• The Korea Project, led by John Park, deepens our security work in northeast Asia. • Laura Manley is the inaugural Director of the Technology and Public Purpose Project. (See pages 4-5.)

Newsletter | Fall–Winter 2018–2019

global and international affairs, and I’m looking forward to working with the team to further develop and showcase the Center’s innovative ideas and research.” —Ash Carter

Observing the Midterms to Fortify

Election Security by Mari Dugas

s millions of Americans voted in the midterm elections on November 6, 25 students working with the Center’s Defending Digital Democracy Project (D3P) observed the elections unfolding in five states across the country. The team, comprised of students from Harvard Kennedy School, MIT, and Tufts, spent the last three months learning about election systems and processes in the United States. Armed with information from D3P’s “State and Local Election Playbook” and its Tabletop Exercise (TTX) training for 120 election officials from 38 different states in early 2018, this year’s student team was eager to engage with election officials and continue providing support to the men and women who are at the frontlines of protecting our democracy. The student team spent election day in Virginia, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Idaho, and Oregon in order to learn about their election processes. In 2019, D3P students will provide support to these five states in conducting their own TTXs. Following are observations from the D3P teams and comments from some of the officials with whom they worked.

COURTESY D3P

Idaho Secretary of State Lawerence Denney (on right), joins D3P team members Irfan Hemani and Gabe Cederberg (back row center) and Irene Solaiman (front row, 2nd from right) along with Boise State University student volunteers during the midterms in Idaho.

IDAHO The D3P team in Idaho observed election processes at the state, county, and precinct levels. Idaho actively combats misinformation, ensures voter accessibility, and operates a paper-based election.

point across agencies and departments for election security. The team also answered calls on the state’s election hotline, learning first hand about some of the issues that voters faced on election day.

“D3P has proven to be a significant value-adding partner in our efforts to improve our cyber-resiliency. Their insight and training methods have allowed us to cover significant ground quickly and effectively.” —Chad Houck, Deputy Secretary of State

“I enjoyed meeting the D3P team on election day and having them participate in our process. I look forward to working with them in developing the New Jersey Election TTX, scheduled for next year.” —Tahesha Way, Secretary of State

MASSACHUSETTS The Massachusetts D3P team observed elections at six polling places throughout the Commonwealth. The team traveled to polls in Boston, Burlington, and Woburn in order to understand the differing needs of urban and suburban polling places. Team members expressed appreciation to Commonwealth officials for their warm welcome.

NEW JERSEY D3P team members visited New Jersey’s Regional Operations Intelligence Center (ROIC) to see the state’s cybersecurity fusion cell that monitors malicious cyber activity on election day and serves as the coordination

“D3P takes the time to learn our processes and procedures so that we can work together to make things better.”

infrastructure. County clerks identified steps their offices have been taking to improve security and public trust. “I welcome D3P’s involvement in Oregon elections every opportunity I have. It is great to have smart people with an interest in public service work with us to find solutions. Too often I am offered “fixes” to my security challenges without the knowledge of how elections work in Oregon. D3P takes the time to learn our processes and procedures so that we can work together to make things better.” —Steve Trout, Director of Elections

VIRGINIA

OREGON

Members of D3P were able to observe the benefits and challenges of electronic voting systems up close in the highly competitive race in Virginia’s 7th District. Virginia’s move to implement a 100 percent paper backup for every vote cast gives voters confidence that the election is insulated from outside interference.

The D3P team had conversations with election officials at the state capital and in three counties to identify areas where Oregon has focused on improving its election security and cybersecurity posture. The three counties were a representative sample of the three primary vendors used in Oregon’s election

“The D3P crew’s insightful views on conducting elections help election administrators everywhere prepare for and plan to mitigate emerging issues in election administration in a measured and purposeful way.” —Dave Nichols, Election Services Director

—Steve Trout, Oregon Director of Elections

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

54 65 63 68 6E 6F 6C 6F 67 69 63 61 6C E2 80 AF 63 68 61 6E 67 65 20 68 61 73 65 66 69 74 73 20 74 6F 20 62 69 6C 6C 69 6F 6E 73 20 74 68 72 6F 75 67 68 20 76 69 74 79 2C 20 61 6E 64 E2 80 AF 63 6F 6E 76 65 6E 69 65 6E 63 65 2E 20 59 61 76 65 20 73 68 6F 77 6E 2C 20 75 6E 6C 65 73 73 E2 80 AF 77 65 20 61 63 74 74 6F 20 73 6F 63 69 65 74 79 2C 20 6E 65 77 20 74 65 63 68 6E 6F 6C 6F 67 69 65 65 6E 20 64 65 73 74 72 75 63 74 69 76 65 20 63 6F 6E 73 65 71 75 65 6E 63 63 68 61 6E 67 65 20 70 6F 73 69 74 69 76 65 20 66 6F 72 20 61 6C 6C 20 69 74 66 20 6F 75 72 20 74 69 6D 65 2E 20 57 65 20 6F 75 72 73 65 6C 76 65 73 20 2D 73 63 6F 76 65 72 79 20 61 6E 64 20 6D 61 72 6B 65 74 20 66 6F 72 63 65 73 20 74 65 20 61 20 66 75 74 75 72 65 20 77 68 65 72 65 20 74 65 63 68 6E 6F 6C 6F 68 6F 6C 65 2C 20 77 65 20 6E 65 65 64 20 61 20 6E 65 77 20 61 70 70 72 6F 61 61 72 64 20 4B 65 6E 6E 65 64 79 20 53 63 68 6F 6F 6C E2 80 99 73 E2 80 AF 42 61 6E 64 20 49 6E 74 65 72 6E 61 74 69 6F 6E 61 6C 20 41 66 66 61 69 72 73 20 6F 72 2C 20 74 68 65 E2 80 AF 54 65 63 68 6E 6F 6C 6F 67 79 20 61 6E 64 20 50 65 63 74 2E 20 44 69 72 65 63 74 65 64 20 62 79 20 42 65 6C 66 65 72 20 43 65 74 69 6F 6E 20 46 65 6C 6C 6F 77 2C 20 61 6E 64 20 66 6F 72 6D 65 72 20 53 65 72 74 65 72 2C 20 61 6E 64 20 6C 65 64 20 6F 6E 20 74 68 65 20 57 65 73 74 20 Center Director Carter61 speaks72 on technological good during “We the 46 6F 75 6E 64 65 72 20 61Belfer 6E 64 20Ash50 74 6Echange 65for 72 20 a HUBweek 61 74201820 52 69 63 Future” event at Harvard Innovation Lab in October.

50 20 50 72 6F 6A 65 63 74 20 77 6F 72 6B 73 20 74 6F 20 65 6E 73 75 72 65 20 73 20 61 72 65 20 64 65 76 65 6C 6F 70 65 64 20 61 6E 64 20 6D 61 6E 61 67 65

» The arc of innovative progress has reached an inflection point.

6F 76 65 72 61 6C 6C 20 70 75 62 6C 69 63 20 67 6F 6F 64 2E E2 80 AF E2 80 AF 66 20 74 68 65 20 50 72 6F 67 72 65 73 73 69 76 65 20 6D 6F 76 65 6D 65 6E 74 65 20 66 61 72 6D 2D 74 6F 2D 66 61 63 74 6F 72 79 20 6D 69 67 72 61 74 69 6F 6F 20 63 72 65 61 74 65 20 61 20 73 65 74 20 6F 66 20 63 6F 6E 64 69 74 69 6F farm-to-factory migration. ultimately it took6F de- 73 73 20 63 68 6E 6F 6C 6F 67 69 63“Take 61the 6C 20 63 68 Though 61 it6E 67improved 65 standards 20 61for millions, 63 72

69 6F 74 65 63 68 2C 20 74 77 6F 72 6B 20 6F 66

cades to sort out and created ugly side effects, including communism and urban ghettos. Only through reforms compulsory boards of public 61progressive 6E 64 20including 74 child 68labor 65laws,20 66 public 75 education, 74 75 72 65 health, 20 the Sherman Antitrust Act, muckraking journalism, and labor unions were we able to sand this period’s 20roughest 65 edges. 78 Our 70charge 65today72 73 66 72 6Dchange 20so 48 is to 74 revive an effort20 that leavens today’s6F disruptive we get the good with less of the bad.”

6F 66 20 61 72 76

53 74 61 6E 66 6F 72 64 2C 20 61 6C 6F 6E 67 20 77 69 74 68 20 6C 65 61 64 65 —Ash Carter (from “Why Big Tech and the Government Need to Work Together,” WIRED)

65 6E 74 2C 20 61 6E 64 20 62 75 73 69 6E 65 73 73 20 74 6F 20 77 6F 72 6B 20 JESSICA SCRANTON

COURTESY OF ANJA MANUEL

65 73 3A 20 0D 0A 0D 0A 52 65 73 70 6F 6E 73 69 62 6C 65 20 49 6E 6E 6F 76 61 74 68 20 69 6E 6E 6F 76 61 74 6F 72 73 20 61 6E 64 20 65 6E 74 72 65 70 72 65 64 65 76 65 6C 6F 70 6D 65 6E 74 20 61 6E 64 20 63 6F 6D 6D 65 72 63 69 61 6C 6F 6C 6F 67 69 65 73 2E 0D 0A 0D 0A 54 65 63 68 20 50 6F 6C 69 63 79 20 E2 80 72 61 69 6E 69 6E 67 20 61 6E 64 20 74 6F 6F 6C 73 20 74 6F 20 69 6E 63 72 65 73 74 61 6E 64 69 6E 67 20 6F 66 20 65 6D 65 72 67 69 6E 67 20 74 65 63 68 6E 61 6E 63 65 20 E2 80 93 20 41 64 76 61 6E 63 69 6E 67 20 69 6E 74 65 72 6E 61 20 66 72 chats 61with6D 65following 77 his6F 72 6B 73 Jeantine 20 Lunshof 61 6E 64during20 62 65 74leader 20Anja70 61 in63 74 Ash Carter students HKS class, MIT Ethicist comments a TAPP TAPP’s73 West Coast Manuel72 participates a “Practical Solutions For Technology’s Public Dilemmas.”

Faculty Working Group. Harvard’s Jim Waldo listens.

discussion at the Swell conference in San Francisco.

69 73 6B 20 74 65 63 68 6E 6F 6C 6F 67 69 65 73 0D 0A 0D 0A 47 65 6E 65 72 61 64 20 69 6E 73 70 69 72 69 6E 67 20 61 20 6E 65 77 20 67 65 6E 65 72 61 74 69 Newsletter Fall–Winter 744 6F 20 6D 61 6B 65 20 61 64 76 61 |6E 63 2018–2019 69 6E 67 20 70 75 62 6C 69 63 20 70

20 62 72 6F 75 67 68 74 20 69 6D 6D 65 61 73 75 72 61 62 6C 65 20 62 65 6E

Managing Technology’s Risks to Society

69 6D 70 72 6F 76 65 64 20 68 65 61 6C 74 68 2C 20 70 72 6F 64 75 63 74 69 65 74 20 61 73 20 72 65 63 65 6E 74 E2 80 AF 65 76 65 6E 74 73 E2 80 AF 68 69 76 65 6C 79 20 6D 61 6E 61 67 65 20 74 68 65 69 72 20 72 69 73 6B 73 20 CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1

65 73 20 6D 61 79 20 61 6C 73 6F 20 62 72 69 6E 67 20 75 6E 66 6F 72 65 73 65 73 Making 2E 20 4D 61change 6B positive 69 6E drivers 67 20 74 tech 65environment 63 68 and 6Ethe6F 6C 6F 67 69 63 61 6C 20 technological of today’s for all is the critical challenge of our time. We

resulting outcomes. Accelerationist culture, for

TAPP Priorities:

20 74 68 65 20 63 72 69 74 instance, 69 63has 61 6C 20 63 68 61 6C 6C 65 6E 67 65 20 6F ourselves—not only the logic of discovery and benefited broad swaths of society Responsible Innovation market forces—must it. To create a by 20 6E 6F 74 20manage 6F 6E 6C 79 20rapidly 74bringing 68 useful 65 goods 20 and 6Cservices 6F to67 69 63 20 6F 66 20 64 69

future where technology serves humanity as

market. Yet following principles such as “move

• Collaborating with innovators and

2D 20 6D 75 73 74 20 6D 61 fast 6Eand61 67 65 20 69 74 2E 20 entrepreneurs 54 6F 20 72 65 61 on the63 responsible a whole, we need a new approach. break things” or “everything that is not development and commercialization

this end, Belfer72 Center has launched allowed” often 6E deprioritized 67 79 To20 73the65 76 65 73 forbidden 20 68is 75 6Dhas61 69 74 79 of20 61 technologies. 73 20 61 20 77 emerging a new endeavor, the Technology and Public

the values and mission that serve society bene-

63 68 2E 20 0D 0A 0D 0A 54 ficially 6F 20 74 68 69 73 20 65 6E 64 2C 20 48 61 72 76 Purpose (TAPP) Project. Established and led and broadly. Tech Policy by Ash 65 6C 66Carter, 65 and 72headed 20 43 65 6E 74 65 72 20 66 6F 72 20 53 63 69 65 6E 63 65 20 • Providing educational training and

on the West Coast by Anja

68 61 73 20 6C 61 75 6E 63 68 65is 64 20 61 20 6E 65 77 tools 20 to65 6Epolicymakers’ 64 65 61 76 increase “Society in need of practical, Manuel, the TAPP Project understanding of emerging

leverages 75 62 6Cexperts 69 from 63Harvard, 20 50 75analytically 72 70 6Fdriven 73 65 20 28to54 50 29 20 50 72 6F 6A solutions the41 50 technologies. MIT, and Stanford, along with

6E 74 65 72 20 44 69 72 65 63 74 6F 72 2C 20 4D 49 54 20 49 6E 6E 6F 76 61 leaders in technology, govern- problems that arise in connection with ment,65 and business, to ensure 63 72 74 61 72 79 20 6F 66 20 44 65 66 65 6E 73 65 20 41 73 68 20 43 61 Global Governance that emerging technologies

fast-paced technological change.”

• Advancing international efforts

43 6F 61 73 74 20 62 79 20 41 6E 6A 61 20 4D 61 6E 75 to65 6Cframeworks 2C 20and43 develop best 6F 2D are developed and managed in for governing high-risk ways that overall public across a world 65 48 61serve 64the6C 65 79good47 61 74In65 73where 20technological 4C 4C change 43 2C 20 practices 74 68 65 20 54 41 50 technologies.

three domains: digital, biotech, and jobs and

cannot be stopped and generally brings with

74 68 61 74 20 65 6D 65 72 it67 69 6E 67 20 74 65 63 68 6E 6F 6C 6F 67 69 65 training. The TAPP Director, Laura Manley, much progress, it is our obligation to forecoordinates it creates 64 20 69 the 6Erange 20of team 77 efforts 61 from 79 her73 see 20dilemmas 74 68 61 and 74invent 20solutions 73 65 72 76 65 Generation Next 20 74 68 65 20 Belfer Center base.

that are technically informed and inclusive.

• Training and inspiring a new

0D 0A In0D 0A 4D 75 63 68 20 The 61TAPP 73 project 20 seeks 74 to68 65 20 72 65 generation 66 6Fof 72 6D leaders 73 20 6F technology to the past several decades, numerous encourage a new technological advances—including expochange. 20 73 6F 66 74 65 6E the65 64 approach 20 74to technological 68 65 20 65 64 67 65 make 73 advancing 20 6Fpublic 66purpose 20 a74 68 part of their life calling. nential increase of data, widespread access to

“Society is in need of practical, analytically

6E 20 61 20 63 65 6E 74 75 driven 72 79 20 61 67 6F 2C 20 77 65 20 61 69 6D 20 74 computing power, and the growing potential of solutions to the problems that arise artificial a rapid with65 fast-paced 6E 73 20intelligence—have 74 68 61supported 74 20 6C in 65connection 61 76 6E technological 20 74 6F 64 61 79 27 73 20 74 65 innovation ecosystem. These advances have,

change,” Carter said.

74 68 72contributed 65 65 20 that 64define 6F the6D 61“Such 69 solutions 6E 73will3Aemerge 20 only 64 if69 67 69 74 61 6C 2C 20 62 in turn, to norms behaviors our current tech culture. 77 6F 72 of6B 2E 20 54 41 50 technologists, 50 20 6Cpolicymakers, 65 76 and 65 the72new61 67 65 73 20 61 Learn 20 more 6Eat 65 While the technological advances of today

generation are encouraged and inspired to

belfercenter.org/TAPP »

61 72 64remarkable 20 55 6E 69 76these65 assume 72 73 69responsibilities 74 79 that 2Ccome 20with4D 49 54 2C 20 61 6E 64 20 are quite in and of themselves, the civic norms20 are of equal6E consequence. TAPP changes great consequence. 72 73 69 20 74The65 63 creating 68 6E 6Fof 6C 6F 67 ”79 2C 20 67 6F 76 65 72 6E 6D Project has been exploring the fundamental

6F 6E 20 74 68 65 20 66 6F 6C 6C 6F 77 69 6E 67 20 70 72 69 6F 72 69 74 69 74 69 6F 6E 20 E2 80 93 20 43 6F 6C 6C 61 62 6F 72 61 74 69 6E 67 20 77 69 6E 65 75 72 73 20 6F 6E 20 74 68 65 20 72 65 73 70 6F 6E 73 69 62 6C 65 20 69 7A 61 74 69 6F 6E 20 6F 66 20 65 6D 65 72 67 69 6E 67 20 74 65 63 68 6E 93 20 50 72 6F 76 69 64 69 6E 67 20 65 64 75 63 61 74 69 6F 6E 61 6C 20 74 61 73 65 20 70 6F 6C 69 63 79 6D 61 6B 65 72 73 E2 80 99 20 75 6E 64 65 72 6F 6C 6F 67 69 65 73 2E 0D 0A 0D 0A 47 6C 6F 62 61 6C 20 47 6F 76 65 72 6E 74 69 6F 6E 61 6C 20 65 66 66 6F 72 74 73 20 74 6F 20 64 65 76 65 6C 6F 70 69 63 65 73 20 66 6F 72 20 67 6F 76 65 72 6E 69 6E 67 20 68 69 67 68 2D 72 74 69 6F 6E 20 4E 65 78 74 20 E2 80 93 20 54 72 61 69 6E 69 6E 67 20 61 6E TAPP Director Laura Manley makes a point about emerging technologies during a HUBweek event in October. Panelists included

David 6E Eaves, 6F Kyruus’s Steve6F Strassmann, and Defense Chris Lynch. 6F 6E 20 6F 66 20 (left 74to right) 65 Harvard’s 63 68 6C 67 79 20 Digital 6C Service’s 65 61 64 65 72 73 20 International Affairs20 74 68 65 69 72 20 6C 695 75 72 70 6F 73 65 20 61 20 Belfer 70 Center 61 for 72Science 74and20 6F 66

Arctic Innovation Lab participants meet with Kennedy School students following their presentations on climate-related ideas and solutions.

Arctic Initiative Takes Innovation and Expertise to Reykjavík

wenty-four Harvard Kennedy School students recently returned from the Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavík—the world’s largest annual gathering on Arctic issues—where each presented her or his innovative and interdisciplinary solution to an Arctic challenge. These “Arctic Innovators” are part of Harvard Kennedy School’s Arctic Initiative, which is co-led at the Belfer Center by John P. Holdren, Henry Lee, and Halla Logadóttir. Focused on policy responses to the challenges posed by rapid climate change in the Arctic, the Initiative has recently secured new outside funding totaling $3 million to cover programs over the next three years. The Initiative’s Arctic Innovators program was established three years ago with the goal of bringing creative young scholars into the expanding international discussion of Arctic issues, both to educate them about this fast-changing region and its impacts on the rest of the globe and to assist them in learning to develop and implement sustainable solutions. This year the program included a Kennedy School class titled, “Policy and Social Innovations for the Changing Arctic,” which was co-taught by Logadóttir and Holdren. The 24 students admitted to the limited-enrollment module came from HKS, the wider Harvard campus, MIT, and the Fletcher School at Tufts.

Each student in the class developed an idea for tackling a pressing Arctic challenge, drawing on class lectures and discussions and meetings with policymakers. As the culmination of their work, they pitched their ideas at the “Innovation Lab” hosted by the Arctic Circle Assembly. During their field study in Reykjavík, students also had the opportunity to network and discuss their ideas with Arctic leaders, including the President of Iceland, H.E. Guðni Th. Jóhannesson. Upon their return to the U.S., they met with former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who underscored the urgency

of the climate change challenge and encouraged the students to sustain their interest in addressing it. The leaders of the Arctic Initiative are optimistic about its future in research, policy, and training around the challenges posed by climate change. “The Arctic region is changing rapidly, with impacts from local to global. Innovation is needed in government policies on all levels and in the actions of businesses and individuals in order to find enduring solutions for all,” Logadóttir said.

Students visited Gullfoss Waterfall and some of Iceland’s other natural attractions after presenting their ideas at the Arctic Circle Assembly.

Newsletter | Fall–Winter 2018–2019

Winning Partnership Works to Prevent City Flooding

New Haven City Engineer Giovanni Zinn describes the need for bioswales which reduce intense flooding in the city.

ew Haven, Connecticut is a city of about 130,000 people—a typical American city in terms of size and challenges. One of the major and growing challenges facing New Haven and other cities is flooding. Increasingly extreme rainstorms and rising sea levels, both caused by climate change, are taxing local drainage systems and destroying vulnerable neighborhoods. An innovative partnership in New Haven is responding by building bioswales, landscaped areas adjacent to the roadway designed to capture and infiltrate stormwater runoff from the street before it can enter a piped sewer system. Bioswales are a cost-effective green infrastructure that reduces pollution and urban flooding in a major rainstorm. The Advancing Green Infrastructure Program is the winner of the 2018 Roy Family Award for Environmental Partnership, presented every two years to an exceptional public-private partnership that benefits the environment. Representatives of the partners—the Urban Resources Initiative at the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, EMERGE Connecticut, Inc., the City of New Haven Department of Engineering, the Greater New Haven Water Pollution Control Authority, and Common Ground High School—gathered at Harvard Kennedy School on November 5 for a Roy Family Award ceremony and dinner. Prior to the ceremony, the Belfer Center’s Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP), which administers the award under the leadership of Amanda Sardonis, organized a panel discussion inspired by the winning project’s commitment to simultaneously

addressing the environmental and social justice issues in New Haven through a community-driven approach that delivers the benefits of climate adaptation to the city’s most vulnerable residents.

» Bioswales are landscaped areas adjacent to the roadway designed to capture stormwater before it can enter a sewer system. ENRP Director Henry Lee moderated the panel discussion, titled “Cities on the Edge,” with two of the winning partners from New Haven and climate mitigation experts from Boston. Former Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy emphasized the importance of grassroots initiatives in terms of climate change action: “Good things always start at the bottom and work their way up,” said McCarthy, who is leading a major climate-related

initiative at Harvard’s School of Public Health. A robust climate change program, she said, is about “climate, health and equity.” Boston’s Chief of Environment, Energy, and Open Space Chris Cook showed a map of Boston in 2070, displaying much of the city under water if nothing is done regarding severe storms and sea-level rise. New Haven City Engineer Giovanni Zinn described the bioswales project as a green infrastructure engagement tool that enables people to see where the stormwater goes and feel the positive impact in their communities. Colleen Murphy-Dunning, Director of the Urban Resources Initiative, said the partnership also brings diverse parts of the the population together to work on a common problem.

Roy Award winners—partners in the Advancing Green Infrastructure Program—gather following the awards ceremony at Harvard Kennedy School in November.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Q&A: Wendy Sherman Q

What have you learned about the relationship women have to power?

“Women, it must be said, have a strange relationship with power. We aren’t afraid of it necessarily, but we seem more comfortable with informal power than institutional power. I once did a study with another social work student, looking at the evolution of leadership in neighborhood organizations. Most often those organizations were started by women who, in order to protect their children, wanted the city to install a traffic light at a busy intersection, or worried about safe drinking water for their families. Women got busy and got the job done, without asking whether they could do so, when they could do something for someone else. As soon as their efforts had attracted the backing of grants and donors—that is, at the point that advocacy became an organization—men invariably stepped in. Whether elected or self-appointed, men became the head of the organization once the women had built it.

“It’s an open question precisely why women continue to deny their own capabilities, despite the past century of feminist activism.” Guys rarely question whether they can do the next job up. A widely cited internal study done by Hewlett-Packard in 2017 showed that men will apply for a job when they have 60 percent of the qualifications for the post; women will do so only when they can show that they have all of them. It’s an open question precisely why women continue to deny their own capabilities, despite the past century of feminist activism. We know that women are still told to be quiet, and that we are still interrupted when we don’t comply. We know that men are told to push themselves

MARTHA STEWART

Ambassador and Belfer Center Senior Fellow Wendy R. Sherman, the former U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, will lead HKS’s Center for Public Leadership and become a professor of the practice of public leadership in January. Sherman, who negotiated with the North Koreans and the Iranians on nuclear issues, is the author of Not for the Faint of Heart: Lessons in Courage, Power, and Persistence. She spoke with us while traveling in sunny California—and having second thoughts about relocating to icy Cambridge.

Wendy Sherman, Belfer Center Senior Fellow and forthcoming Director of the Kennedy School’s Center for Public Leadership, answers a question from a student during a JFK Jr. Forum focusing on Sherman’s career as a diplomat and negotiator.

forward while women are told to hang back. We worry when we are given more responsibility or more power, and too often we still believe that we don’t know enough, aren’t skilled enough, aren’t substantive enough, to do what the job we are applying for requires. When I became the Assistant Secretary for Legislative Affairs at the State Department, I’d already run a congressional representative’s office and a Senate campaign and served as Executive Director of both EMILY’s List and the Democratic National Committee during a national presidential campaign (Mike Dukakis’). My résumé was among the most accomplished in Washington. Yet when the job was offered to me, I was completely overwhelmed by what I didn’t know.”

What are some of the leading challenges and opportunities for mentoring the next generation of leaders at Harvard?

“What I think is so extraordinary about young people today is they have a renewed sense of passion, activism, and engagement. We’ve seen that in the last election, which featured more young people voting. HKS has long had a mission of supporting, mentoring, and encouraging the leaders that we’ll need tomorrow. From cyber security to artificial intelligence, the future policy challenges are enormous. Both Newsletter | Fall–Winter 2018–2019

CPL and Belfer must make sure that the leaders we’re preparing for tomorrow understand these issues, plan for these issues, and understand how they’re going to affect our day-to-day lives. David Gergen has done a phenomenal job as CPL director, ensuring that we have a diverse range of fellows. And I know that President Larry Bacow and Dean Doug Elmendorf are committed to a Harvard that really reflects the diversity of our country. We have to reach out beyond Cambridge to understand day-to-day lives. We can’t just be the 1% for the 1%. It’s going to take concrete effort by all of us, and it’s going to be tough. But look at this incoming Congress. It looks more like America and America’s future.”

What excites you most about teaching, serving, and leading at Harvard?

“The people who come to HKS come with a lot of hope, optimism, and ambition, but also a commitment to provide great public service here in the U.S. and around the world. I’m really looking forward to being energized by that vision. And I’m looking forward to bringing some of my real-world experience to deepen their capabilities to meet today’s diverse challenges.”

Spotlight: Dara Kay Cohen Dara Kay Cohen is a Ford Foundation Associate Professor of Public Policy at HKS. Her research spans international relations, including international security, civil war and the dynamics of violence, and gender and conflict. Her first book, Rape During Civil War, received several awards, including the 2017 Theodore J. Lowi First Book Award from the American Political Science Association. Cohen is also the recipient of the 2019 Emerging Scholar Award from the International Security Studies Section (ISSS) of the International Studies Association. Her current project is focused on the intersection of political violence, public opinion, and gender in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. by Josh Burek

At the heart of Cohen’s book is the effort to understand a puzzling phenomenon about the forms sexual violence takes during wartime. has also helped to inform policymakers about how to better prevent and respond to it. In her extensive interviews with both former combatants and survivors in three post-conflict countries, Cohen was struck by the lasting nature of sexual violence. Among the perpetrators she interviewed, some wept and even asked for forgiveness. But what surprised Cohen was the extent to which many ex-combatants—sometimes interviewed years after the end of the war—still associated their participation in gang rape with a powerful moment of bonding with fellow soldiers. Many of the survivors Cohen has interviewed, meanwhile, must contend with longterm consequences, including the social stigma of having been gang-raped. Cohen recalls one memorable interview with a brave young woman who had been raped in Freetown, Sierra Leone, in front of her family. Considered unmarriageable, the young woman was devastated that she was unlikely to become a wife or a mother, the life she had dreamed of. Although the available data can paint a grim picture that sexual violence in wartime remains a severe problem in several ongoing wars, Cohen is optimistic that the world’s

greater focus on this challenge is beginning to make a difference. Rape in wartime has reached the agenda of high politics; the United Nations Security Council now passes resolutions on these and related topics. Part of the progress has come from broadening our understanding. For example, a common misconception is that all victims are women. Observers are increasingly recognizing the number of male victims of sexual violence in wartime. “We’ve ignored these victims in the past,” Cohen says, “because we’ve called them cases of abuse or torture, not rape.” Cohen touches on these themes in the courses she teaches at the Kennedy School, including a course on civil wars and insurgency, and one on gender and conflict. Both courses have received the Kennedy School’s teaching excellence award, Dinner on the Dean. Cohen also coordinates a seminar series focused on issues of gender and security at the Belfer Center. Norms on wartime tactics have shifted before. After all, a century ago, the use of chemical weapons in wartime was common. Today, it is largely taboo. Cohen is cautiously hopeful that someday wartime rape will similarly result in immediate global censure and action.

COURTESY OF DARA KAY COHEN

or Dara Kay Cohen, research on gender and violence began as a personal commitment to issues of violence against women. As an undergraduate at Brown, she started volunteering as a hotline advocate for the Rhode Island Rape Crisis Center. She also volunteered at a domestic violence shelter in Providence. But she hadn’t considered a career in academia until 9/11. Thinking she’d become a lawyer, Cohen joined the Outstanding Scholars Program of the Department of Justice, a program designed for recent college graduates to serve as paralegals. She ended up working in the Terrorism and Violence Crime Section of the DOJ’s criminal division. She started in July 2001. Two months later, 9/11 struck—and suddenly her section shifted into high gear focusing on global political violence and international terrorism. That shift, she says, “changed my whole career trajectory.” After two more years at DOJ, she decided to pursue a PhD in political science at Stanford to deepen her understanding of political violence. As she began work on her dissertation, she noticed a significant gap in the literature regarding the experiences of women amid violent conflict. That dissertation went on to become Cohen’s first book, Rape During Civil War, which has received major awards from the American Political Science Association and the International Studies Association. At the heart of Cohen’s book is the effort to understand a puzzling phenomenon about the forms sexual violence takes during wartime. While gang rape is relatively rare in peacetime, it accounts for a surprisingly large proportion— upwards of 70 to 80 percent—of reported rapes in wartime. Why the dramatic increase? Cohen hypothesizes that gang rape serves as a perversely effective form of bonding for combatants, particularly for armed groups with poor internal cohesion. She finds that armed groups that have recruited their fighters by force are more likely to perpetrate rape than groups that recruited their fighters voluntarily. Her “combatant socialization” thesis has advanced not only our scholarly understanding of the causes of wartime rape but

Dara Kay Cohen (right) during fieldwork in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, in May 2017 with Danielle Jung of Emory University, coauthor with Cohen of a book project about gang violence in Haiti.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

MARTHA STEWART

Belfer Cent

Negotiating Peace: Former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, a Belfer Center Future of Diplomacy Senior Fellow, discusses “Negotiating for Peace and Security on the Korean Peninsula” during a JFK Jr. Forum with former acting Assistant Secretary of State Susan Thornton and moderator Nicholas Burns.

Leadership and Life: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs and Belfer Center Future of Diplomacy Senior Fellow, speaks with students and staff about her personal career trajectory and key decision points.

Flights into the Future: LTG Raymond P. Palumbo, Former Deputy Secretary of Defense (Intelligence) for Warfighter Support, speaks on the future of military drone use during the “Taking Flight: Exploring Innovative Uses of Drone Technology” conference sponsored by the Center’s Intelligence Project.

Leader in Law: Loretta Lynch, former Attorney General of the United States (2015-2017), speaks at a Belfer Center-sponsored session with students and fellows about the range of issues and challenges she faced while leading the Department of Justice.

Displacement Decisions: Shaden Khallaf, Senior Policy Advisor for the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees MENA Bureau, discusses the complexities of displacement in the Middle East and North Africa during a Middle East Initiative seminar hosted by MEI Faculty Director Tarek Masoud.

Fortifying Elections: Student members of the 2017-18 Defending Digital Democracy team gathered during a wrap-up event in May. D3P Director Eric Rosenbach (with flag) recognized the team’s success in working with officials across the country to develop recommendations for more secure elections.

Newsletter | Fall–Winter 2018–2019

MARTHA STEWART

ter in Action

Madame Prime Minister: Aminata Touré, the first female Prime Minister of Senegal, converses with students about gender, foreign affairs, and leadership in an event sponsored by Women in Defense, Diplomacy, and Development (W3D) and the Future of Diplomacy Project.

Diplomacy under Siege? Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter (right) and French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian speak on the topic “Is Diplomacy Still Alive?” during a public conversation sponsored by the Belfer Center and its Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship.

From Experience: General James Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence and Belfer Center Intelligence Project Senior Fellow, answers questions about his book Facts and Fears: Hard Truths from a Life in Intelligence, during an Intelligence Project seminar moderated by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen.

Homeland Security Implications: Lisa Monaco, former Chief Counterterrorism Advisor to President Obama, speaks on Russia’s role in the 2016 election, the FBI investigation, and implications looking forward during a Homeland Security Project seminar.

Speculating on Disaster: Jeffrey Lewis, author of The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States, discusses his book during a Project on Managing the Atom seminar. Lewis is founding publisher of the Arms Control Wonk blog.

Politics and Energy: Meghan O’Sullivan, Director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project, and Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, hosts an event titled “Rising Political Risk and Its Impact on Energy Markets: A Close Look at Politics and Energy in Northeast Asia, the Middle East, and Venezuela.”

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

SHEN CHUNCHEN / AP

Decarbonizatio Wei Peng

China’s Smog: Danger and Opportunity

Aiming for Zero Carbon Emissions in China

s the single largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world and the source of almost 30 percent

of the CO2 released into our atmosphere, China faces an enormous challenge in reaching its goal of zero or negative emissions—known as deep decarbonization. Henry Lee, Director of the Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP), and Dan Schrag, Co-Director of the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, head a team of researchers from the U.S. and China who have been examining China’s work in achieving deep decarbonization in the People’s Republic. The team plans to publish its findings in a book to be released in 2019. China has pledged to stabalize its carbon emissions by 2030 and has rolled out an ambitious program to reduce emssions of conventional pollutants. The book will focus on actions China can take now that will position the country to significantly reduce its carbon emissions in the post-2030 period. China’s government has offered incentives and adopted policies geared toward lowering emissions. Ambitious renewable installation targets and the introduction of a tradable performance program in the electricity sector implemented in 2018 are among the most salient of these measures. At the core of ENRP's research is an examination of how China can implement possible frameworks for deep decarbonization, even if the relevant technology has not yet reached its full potential. “This project is not looking at the next five years, but rather the next 30 to 50 years,” Lee says. The ENRP team’s upcoming book, with sections written by Lee and Schrag and by research fellows Wei Peng, Qinyu Qiao, and Michael Davidson— along with former research fellows Zhimin Mao and Pu Wang and Professor Matthew Bunn—will offer a broad analysis, focusing on policy questions and also offering some insight into sustainable technologies.

by Jonathan Edel

To research fellow Wei Peng—and to China’s government—a major air pollution crisis in 2013 came as a call to arms against China’s toxic air quality—with profound implications for its energy use and carbon footprint. “Driven by pollution concerns, China has started to curb its coal consumption and emissions,” Peng believes. “It’s a golden age for China’s environmental policymaking.” The thickening smog in China, she believes, represented danger but also opportunity. China’s reaction to the crisis could be seen as an initial step down a path to more comprehensive decarbonization. When she was an undergraduate “If China’s studying environmental science at Peking government wants University of Beijing, Peng recognized that in researching pollution, she was to do something, examining the symptoms of policy but they can get it not the underlying causes: “Air pollution is an end problem; government policy is done quickly.” what can actually make change happen.” “We’re not choosing tech options,” Peng says of her ENRP team’s research into China’s decarbonization challenges and opportunities. “We are thinking about high level strategies as foundations of change. It’s not the marginal CO2 emissions that matter, it’s the cumulative emissions—from now to 2030, 2050, and beyond.” From infrastructure placement to balancing power costs with industrial stability, China has some sizable hurdles to overcome in the near and long term. In this context, an understanding of location is paramount. “How policy is formed and implemented is very different in the U.S. as compared to China,” Peng says. “If China’s government wants to do something, they can get it done quickly. This is why for China we need to understand the synergies and tradeoffs between different policies.” Along with the pragmatic desire to reduce pollution, the crisis has shifted a cultural paradigm, Peng notes. As rapid development has continued to lift people out of poverty, millions have been able to look beyond survival and see the value of protecting their air, water, and land. “It’s not like China wasn’t polluted before,” Peng adds. “But as people get richer, they realize that there are other important things in their life, such as clear air and cleaner water.” Newsletter | Fall–Winter 2018–2019

on Initiatives in China Michael Davidson

Qinyu Qiao

by Christian Gibbons

by Celia Carbone

For a Greener China, Its Growth Model Must Change Since Michael Davidson’s first visit to China 10 years ago as a Fulbright Scholar, the Middle Kingdom has continued to fascinate him. China’s reliance on a centrally planned economy has served it well up to this point, Davidson says, but it is beginning to provide diminished returns. Now, from his position as a post-doctoral research fellow with the Belfer Center’s Environment and National Resources Program, Davidson is exploring the complications and tensions inherent in one of China’s current challenges: its attempts to decarbonize. “With decarbonization, every place is unique. Because it’s such a complex phenomenon, every country is going to do it differently,” he explains. “China has actually one of the biggest challenges in decarbonization and scaling up renewable energy.” “Climate change is consistently mentioned in [China’s] policy documents,” he says. “There is no denier community in the Chinese government.” This is reflected in the rapid, substantial effort that the Chinese government has made to increase usage of renewable energy—an effort that, according to Davidson, has already produced results in excess of their expectations. At the same time, however, the inflexibilities of China’s centrally planned economy are showing more and more. “They need to move toward less energy-intensive production, “What are the to reduce waste, to reduce costs, institutions for growing and to support the labor force that they have,” Davidson says. “There renewable energy— is a strong need to increase effinot from 0 to 2% but ciency in the economy, because from 2 to 20%?” China’s traditional growth model just won’t work going forward.” China will probably have to significantly readjust its approach if it wants to continue to cut emissions, Davidson believes. For this reason, China’s experience can provide important lessons for other societies seeking to rely more heavily on clean energy sources. “A key challenge now is to make sure that other countries looking at the Chinese success in developing its wind and solar industries think about this question: What are the institutions for growing renewable energy—not for going from 0 to 2 percent, but from 2 to 20 percent?”

The Role of New Energy Vehicles in China Along with Henry Lee, research fellow Qinyu Qiao researches and analyzes the foundations for decarbonizing China’s transport sector. Qiao focuses on the use of “zero” carbon energy sources in passenger electric vehicles. In China, Qiao says, it is best to look at decarbonization as a long-term transition yielding results in the next 50 years. For instance, of the 27 million vehicles produced in China in 2017, only about 500,000 were electric, and most of these were extremely small vehicles. While this fraction of new energy vehicles has little impact at this time, he says, the popularity of electric vehicles is on the rise in China. China’s changing policies will also increase this number. “Electric vehicles are 35 percent cleaner than “35 percent internal combustion engine vehicles, but 35 percent is still not enough,” Qiao adds. is still not According to China’s EV100, the leading conenough.” ference of the new energy vehicle industry, there will be eight million electric vehicles on the road in 2030, therefore GHG emissions will be reduced by 830 million tons. This is based on the assumption that the emissions factor (life cycle GHG emissions per unit of energy consumption) will not change. Qiao’s research, however, shows that the reduction will likely be even greater due to decreasing emissions factors from renewable energies. Electric vehicles are perceived as zero-emission vehicles because they do not emit during the use stage. However, Qiao notes, that perception is “unfair” because power generation is not zero-emission. Electric vehicles do not provide as many environmental benefits when manufacturing and recycling stages are also considered, he explains, since significant emissions are released in the process of manufacturing the battery. So those factors must also be considered and confronted in China’s attempts to decarbonize. “China is encouraging the use and manufacturing of new energy vehicles,” Qiao says. That fact can be seen in new policies that include a dual credit regulation requiring vehicles to meet new fuel consumption standards either by altering traditional vehicles or producing new energy vehicles. These new standards, Qiao says, will force the manufacturers in China to produce more new energy vehicles and that will increase progress toward decarbonization.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Global Relations

New Korea Project Advances Research and Analysis of Korean Peninsula Affairs

he Belfer Center officially launched the Korea Project in September 2018. The Korea Project is committed to advancing research and analysis, policy engagement, and mentorship of next-generation specialists at Harvard. Building on the work of the late Ambassador Stephen Bosworth—Senior Fellow and former U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy—the Korea Project continues to deepen the connection between practitioner and research communities focused on Korean Peninsula affairs. Gary Samore, the Belfer Center’s former Executive Director for Research, and Korea Project Director John Park led recent efforts to successfully expand Korea initiatives. With the support of the SBS Foundation and the Korea Foundation, the Korea Project conducts major research initiatives, including Track 1.5 policy dialogues, and convenes the Korea Working Group Speaker Series that brings senior practitioners to the Belfer Center. Recent speakers include former UN

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, former U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman, former South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs Yoon Young-kwan, current South Korean First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Lim Sung-nam, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Russel, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Christopher Hill, and Samore, a former White House WMD Coordinator. In early 2019, the Korea Project will convene the inaugural Harvard Korean Security Summit, which will bring together senior South Korean and U.S. policymakers, as well as leading researchers and next generation scholars. Eric Rosenbach is the project’s Principal Investigator and William Tobey and Samore co-chair its senior study group on Korean security. Dong-hyeon Kim coordinates the project.

Ambassadors Christopher Hill (center) and Daniel Russel, and First Vice Foreign Minister Lim Sung-nam (not pictured) discuss the current cycle of negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea in a Korea Working Group event moderated by John Park (right) in June.

The Korea Project is committed to advancing research and analysis, policy engagement, and mentorship of next-generation specialists at Harvard.

Keeping Communications Open Despite U.S.-Russia Friction

or the past eight years, a group of high-level American and Russian retired military and intelligence officials has met annually to discuss sensitive issues of U.S.-Russian relations. The purpose of the Elbe Group, launched by the Belfer Center in 2008, is to keep open an important channel of communications between the two countries that have the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world. In early November, U.S. members of the Elbe Group met at the Belfer Center to discuss the current tensions between the U.S. and Russia and to plan for their March meeting with Russian colleagues. When asked how best to work with an adversary, one panelist emphasised the importance of understanding the other’s viewpoint. They also agreed their decade-long professional and personal relationships provide a good basis for working to find common ground.

The significance of a strong U.S.-Russia connection was highlighted in October when the Trump administration announced withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range and ShorterRange Missiles Treaty (INF) with Russia. A number of Belfer Center nuclear experts commented on the impact the withdrawal would Elbe Group members Douglas Lute, Kevin Ryan, Rolf have on international security. Mowatt-Larssen, and Dan Hoffman discuss the current state of U.S.-Russia relations at a seminar in October. The comments are available at belfercenter.org/INF. In an effort to improve understanding of For more on the Elbe Group, visit Russia and all aspects of the U.S.-Russia relationbelfercenter.org/elbe-group ship, the website Russia Matters was launched by the Belfer Center in 2016 with support from the For more from Russia Matters, visit Carnegie Corporation of New York to provide russiamatters.org top-notch analysis, factual data, and news. Newsletter | Fall–Winter 2018–2019

U.S.-Asia Policy and China’s Rise Ash Carter on U.S. Grand Strategy in Asia Reflections on American Grand Strategy in Asia

excerpt from Carter’s new report, “Reflections on American Grand

Ash Carter

Strategy in Asia,” available at belfercenter.org/ S P EC I A L R E P O RT O CTO B E R 20 1 8

GrandStrategyAsia

“F

or more than two decades, I worked to strengthen military and diplomatic ties with China, alongside scores of other U.S. and allied officials, all of us sincere in our belief that China could be encouraged to join the principled, inclusive network that has served as the backbone of regional security since the end of World War II—and thus the Asian miracle. It is easy for me to imagine having used my time as Secretary of Defense to solidify those ties and bring China into closer partnership with the United States and the other participants in the network.

“The Asian security network has served our interests well.” That was not to be. It is difficult to look back over China’s actions in recent decades and continue to argue that China accepts the principled, inclusive network. The domineering, unilateral strain in its policies appears, time after time, to have triumphed over the strain that values partnership and integration. In the Taiwan Strait, on the Korean Peninsula, in cyberspace, in global trade—at nearly every turn, China’s leaders have chosen isolation over integration and confrontation over inclusion. China appears to have concluded that the United States dominated Asia for 70 years, and now it’s China’s turn. This badly misunderstands our role in the postwar Asian security network, and ignores a golden opportunity for China to become a full participant and enjoy the same benefits that we and a growing number of Asian allies, partners, and friends have enjoyed. What does China’s choice mean for U.S. policy? First, it means the rebalance begun under President Obama should continue, especially the military aspects of the rebalance.

We must continue to invest in the innovative systems and ideas required to counter China’s military capabilities. We must have the quality and quantity of forces necessary to prevent Chinese aggression if we can, and counter it if we must. We must also continue to build stronger military partnerships in the region, with established allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, as well as newer partners such as Vietnam and India, but also including China (as the Belfer Center and I have done for decades). Partnership is at the heart of the principled, inclusive network, and the stronger the ties among the United States and its partners, the better off we all are. If China has chosen self-isolation over partnership, the United States, too, has a choice. The Asian security network has served our interests well, and it can continue—but only if the United States continues to believe in it. Even though it is a communist dictatorship, our strategy should not be containment. I fear our nation has lost confidence in the network approach. Over the last three presidential administrations, including the current one, we have struggled economically, diplomatically, and militarily, to muster coherent support for the principled, inclusive network that long enjoyed bipartisan support. Without U.S. leadership and support, the network will be replaced by another, parallel network China is seeking to erect. The parallel network proposed by China would serve China’s interests, replacing principle with brute force and inclusion with dominion.”

ouglas Dillon Professor of Government Graham Allison took the stage at TED World Theater in New York in September to discuss the question: How will the U.S. respond to the rise of China? Allison’s TED Talk was part of TED’s “We the Future” event that explored some of the world’s most daunting challenges along with possible solutions. Allison discussed the friction between the U.S. and China over trade and defense as a current example of a centuries-long pattern. He emphasized the importance of Thucydides’ Trap, “the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power.”

To sidestep war, [we need] “imagination, common sense, and courage.” “Are Americans and Chinese going to let the forces of history draw us into a war that would be catastrophic to both?” Allison asked. War between the U.S. and China is not inevitable, he said, but both countries must actively work to prevent it. To sidestep war, Allison said, “A combination of imagination, common sense, and courage” are needed. “A long peace” will also help, he said, noting that Athens and Sparta agreed at one point to a 30-year peace so each could tend to domestic affairs. Allison’s TED Talk has received more than 900,000 views since it was posted online at the beginning of November.

TED / SCREENSHOT

The following article is an adapted

BELFER CENTER REPORT

Graham Allison: U.S., China Must Work to Prevent War

Graham Allison delivers a TED Talk on the stresses in U.S.-China relations.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Featured Fellows

Belfer Center International and Global Affairs Student Fellow

Managing the Atom / Iran Project Research Fellow

Bo Julie Crowley

Sahar Nowrouzzadeh

by Maya Pontone

by Isha Marathe

Contributing to Cybersecurity, Pursuing Secure Elections o Julie Crowley didn’t initially plan to pursue a career in cybersecurity. A 2015 Georgetown graduate with a B.A. in Government, her current focus on cyber issues is a pivot from her undergraduate studies in counterterrorism and Arabic. But after an internship experience at a University of Maryland homeland security research center, she developed an interest in how cybersecurity would play a role in national security. She later worked as a cybersecurity consultant for PricewaterhouseCoopers, where she gained additional knowledge and experience in the field. After the 2016 presidential election, she decided to make the switch from the private to the public sector of cybersecurity research. Now, Crowley is a Master in Public Policy 2020 candidate at Harvard Kennedy School. As a student fellow at the Belfer Center, she is involved in a number of cybersecurity research initiatives, including the Defending Digital Democracy (D3P) Project that works to secure elections. She traveled with a D3P team to Richmond, Virginia over the November midterms to observe the processes used by state election officials to ensure a secure election. Additionally, in early November, Crowley and other students went to New York City to participate in the Cyber 9/12 Student Challenge, a competition designed to engage participants with cyber policy through various potential “There’s a lot that cyberattack simulations. Although her team didn’t win, she says she enjoyed we’re still figuring out the experience and liked the oppor- [about cybersecurity] tunity to expand her perspective on right now.” how to deal with different cyber issues. One of the most exciting aspects about working in cyber, Crowley says, is the opportunity in the field for expansion and also innovation. “There’s a lot that we’re still figuring out right now,” she says, “so it’s a cool time to be working on it.”

The Importance of Science in Negotiating and Policymaking hen it comes to U.S.-Iran relations, Iran’s nuclear program, and all of its implications, think tanks like the Belfer Center are at times of vital importance in assisting policymakers in conducting thorough investigations of key issues, Sahar Nowrouzzadeh says. A former Director for Iran and Iran Nuclear Implementation on the White House “The [Iran nuclear] National Security Council staff, Nowrouzzadeh deal was based also highlights the role of science in U.S. policyon an incredibly making. “The most significant example I expestrong scientific rienced first-hand was during the negotiations leading up to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive foundation.” Plan of Action or ‘Iran nuclear deal’ reached between the P5+1, EU and Iran. It’s not often part of the discourse— unfortunately—but the deal was based on an incredibly strong scientific foundation when it came to crafting not just the limitations on Iran’s nuclear program but also the relevant verification and monitoring mechanisms.” Such nuclear negotiations are extensive and complex, Nowrouzzadeh says, involving U.S. diplomats and a slew of scientists and researchers from national laboratories and nuclear security sites who produce analysis in support of policy decisions that shape foreign relations and national security. Current Belfer Center nuclear experts contributed significantly to that base of information. A long-time foreign policy analyst, Nowrouzzadeh has served the U.S. government under three consecutive administrations. Even before pursuing education focused on international relations and the Middle East at George Washington University and the University of Maryland, she had a deep interest in foreign languages and cultures and knows several languages, including Persian, Spanish and Arabic. A few weeks into her undergraduate studies, the catastrophic events of 9/11 took place and shaped her education and psyche around foreign policy and public service. Her brother was then deployed to Iraq, further piquing her interest in the Middle East and “in trying to help make a positive difference on critical issues that impact the lives of so many.”

Newsletter | Fall–Winter 2018–2019

New at the Belfer Center

digital HKS Offers Leaders Tools to Understand How Digital Applications Transform Government

igital HKS is an independent project committed to understanding the relationship between digital technology, open data, and digital rights as they relate to the public interest. Newly based at the Belfer Center, digital HKS achieves this by developing research, curriculum, and events as well as serving as a steward for the government digital services and public interest technology practitioner communities— two groups at the forefront of this work. In June, digital HKS hosted its inaugural digital services event to bring together digital service groups from around the globe to share, learn, and problem-solve. This invitationonly event brought together participants from the U.S., UK, Estonia, Argentina, Mexico, Peru, New Zealand, and Canada to discuss building teams, scaling services, and achieving sustainability. The meeting culminated in an annual Digital Transformation Report available at belfercenter.org/DigitalTransform. Digital technologies, data, and agile methodologies offer tremendous opportunity for governments to address difficult social problems. These opportunities include

providing core services (e.g. Login.gov) more efficiently and reimagining how governments can be structured around core government platforms (e.g. GOV.uk). It is essential that public leaders possess the knowledge and tools to enable them to make decisions relating to these areas and their constituents. Lecturer in Public Policy and Faculty Director of digital HKS David Eaves focuses on the groundwork for why digital centric curriculum matters to all public policy schools. He is building a foundational approach at the Kennedy School in his series, Teaching Digital at HKS: A Roadmap, found at belfercenter.org/digitalHKS. digital HKS is home to a rich community of students and research fellows along with adjunct lecturers that include Dana Chisnell, Kathy Pham, Nick Sinai, Bruce Schneier, and Jim Waldo. Fellows’ research covers domestic and international topics such as exploring the future of government work, assessing human rights considerations applied to Internet protocols, and analyzing the ethical considerations of identity and indigenous populations in the global south.

MARTHA STEWART

by Vanessa Rhinesmith

David Eaves listens to Vanita Gupta, President and CEO of the Leadership Conference, during a John F. Kennedy Forum Event on “Crossing the Chasm: Why Now Is the Time for Public Interest Technology.”

belfercenter.org/digitalHKS

Follow digital HKS on Twitter at

@hks_digital

Center Welcomes National Security Fellows

arvard Kennedy School’s National Security Fellows Program made the official transition in June from its base within the School’s Executive Education division to the Belfer Center. “For a quarter century, the National Security Fellows Program (NSF) has been one of Harvard Kennedy School’s crown jewels,” said Belfer Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach. “The men and women who enroll in this rigorous program greatly enrich our learning environment, and we’ve been proud to help strengthen their capacities to serve the public good.” Led by William Rapp, the NSF Program is a 10-month postgraduate fellowship for military officers and civilian officials who show

the potential of rising to the top leadership in security-related and other critical areas of positions in their organizations. U.S. military national and international affairs. officers from all the uniformed services and During the 2018-2019 academic year, 18 civilian officials from the intelligence comNational Security Fellows are taking part in munity and the federal government come to the program. Harvard for their “senior service college” year. While the Belfer Center has always worked closely with Executive Education to support the National Security Fellows, transitioning them to the Center will facilitate interactions with an expanded community of Belfer Center-based Gen. John Hyten (right), Commander of the United States Strategic Command, speaks with the National Security Fellows. practitioners and scholars Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Hot off the Presses

Keeping at It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government

The Hell of Good Intentions: America’s Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy

Not for the Faint of Heart: Lessons in Courage, Power, and Persistence

Preventing BlackMarket Trade in Nuclear Technology

by Wendy R. Sherman, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Edited by Matthew Bunn, Prof. of Practice, HKS, Martin B. Malin, Exec. Director, Project on Managing the Atom, William C. Potter, and Leonard S. Spector

by Paul A. Volcker, International Council Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, with Christine Harper

by Stephen M. Walt, Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs, HKS

Public Affairs (October 2018)

Farrar, Straus and Giroux (October 2018)

Triple Axis: Iran’s Relations with Russia and China

The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage, and Fear in the Cyber Age

Facts and Fears: Hard Truths from a Life in Intelligence

My Country, My Life: Fighting for Israel, Searching for Peace

by Dina Esfandiary, Research Fellow, International Security Program and Ariane Tabatabai, former Research Fellow, International Security Program

by David E. Sanger, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

by James R. Clapper, Senior Fellow, Intelligence Project, and Trey Brown

by Ehud Barak, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Penguin Random House (July 2018)

MacMillan (May 2018)

I.B. Tauris (July 2018)

Public Affairs (September 2018)

Cambridge University Press (June 2018)

Compiled by Susan Lynch, ISP/STPP

Newsletter | Fall–Winter 2018–2019

KEVIN ALLEN/NAE

Newsmakers Venky Narayanamurti, former Dean of Harvard’s School of Engineering and Applied Science and former Belfer Center Science, Technology, and Public Policy Director, has received the National Academy of Engineering’s prestigious Arthur M. Bueche Award. Narayanamurti was honored for “seminal contributions to condensed matter physics and visionary leadership of multidisciplinary research in industry, academia, and national labs that generated research and engineering advances.” Belfer Center International Council member and Executive Vice President and CIO for Liberty Mutual Neeti Bhalla has been named an Aspen Institute Finance Leaders Fellow for 2018. She is one of 22 senior leaders who will participate in a two-year fellowship and “chart the course for the global finance industry’s future in a way that builds a more prosperous and just world for all.” Belfer Center Senior Fellow Paula Dobriansky was the 2018 Australian American Leadership Dialogue Honoree for 26 years of dedication to the AALD mission—a forum for Australian and American leaders “to confront the compelling issues of the day and in the process build lasting relationships.” Science, Technology, and Public Policy Co-Director and former Science Advisor to President Obama John P. Holdren has been honored by the President of Tsinghua University as a Tsinghua Visiting Distinguished Professor. Holdren, who has led collaborative research projects between the Belfer Center and Tsinghua for a number of years, will take part in activities at the University several times a year. Harvard Distinguished Service Professor Joseph Nye and former Ambassador Richard Armitage concluded their fourth bi-partisan study on the future of the U.S.-Japan alliance and released their report through the Center for Strategic and International Studies in October. Titled “More Important than Ever,” the study found that the U.S. has “no better ally than Japan,” but that renewing the alliance will require “tough decisions and sustained implementation.” Professor Sheila Jasanoff has been awarded the Albert O. Hirschman Prize, the Social Science Research Council’s highest honor. Council President Alondra Nelson said, “Illuminating the pathways between law, science, and policy in modern democracies has been Jasanoff ’s life’s work. She is an intellectual leader who has made singular contributions to building the empirical groundwork for a new field, and also to cultivating its theoretical and institutional frameworks.” Senior Fellow Susan Rice, former National Security Advisor and Ambassador to the United Nations, is the recipient of the 2018 Cyrus A. Ansary Medal for her “lifelong commitment to leadership and service.” This top honor for members of the American University community was presented at AU’s 37th Annual President’s Circle Celebration in October.

Vol. 43 No. 2 Fall 2018

The Power of Nations: Measuring What Matters Michael Beckley Current gross indicators such as population and GDP are misleading in terms of a country’s relative power. Power can be calculated more accurately by subtracting a country’s liabilities from its assets.

What Explains Counterterrorism Effectiveness? Evidence from the U.S. Drone War in Pakistan Asfandyar Mir What makes U.S. counterterrorism campaigns succeed? In the conflict in Pakistan’s border areas, using drones and local partners and then taking swift action made the difference in the decadelong conflict against al-Qaida and the Pakistani Taliban.

Conflict and Chaos on the Korean Peninsula: Can China’s Military Help Secure North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons? Oriana Skylar Mastro North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is one of the most vexing security challenges facing the United States. What would happen to Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons if the North Korean regime collapsed? China’s military could play a vital role in securing or destroying nuclear weapons in North Korea.

Nationalism, Collaboration, and Resistance: France under Nazi Occupation Matthew Adam Kocher, Adria K. Lawrence, and Nuno P. Monteiro Many scholars and analysts suggest that nationalism produces resistance against foreign powers, but a reconsideration of the German occupation of France in World War II reveals how a population might instead choose acquiescence or active collaboration. Domestic political competition and the international context prevented French nationalism from being translated into wholesale resistance.

Would U.S. Leaders Push the Button? Wargames and the Sources of Nuclear Restraint Reid B.C. Pauly Declassified U.S. wargame records reveal that nuclear nonuse is partly a result of deterrence, but also because participants worried about their reputations or thought conventional weapons would be effective.

International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. The International Security journal is edited at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press. Questions may be directed to IS@harvard.edu. Follow us on Twitter @journal_is Compiled by International Security staff

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Nonprofit Org. U.S. Postage PAID Nashua, NH Permit No. 375

The Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Ash Carter, Director Eric Rosenbach, Co-Director 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, Massachusetts www.belfercenter.org

Belfer Center Newsletter Fall/Winter 2018-2019 EDITOR: Sharon Wilke Associate Director of Communications sharon_wilke@hks.harvard.edu DESIGNER: Andrew Facini Publications and Design Coordinator andrew_facini@hks.harvard.edu

Josh Burek Director of Global Communications and Strategy josh_burek@hks.harvard.edu Bennett Craig Photographer / Multimedia Producer bennett_craig@hks.harvard.edu

The Belfer Center has a dual mission: (1) to provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge about

The Communications Office was assisted in the production of this newsletter by Bogdan Belei, Mari Dugas, Jonathan Edel, Christian Gibbons, Rex Horner, Halla Logadóttir, Susan Lynch, Isha Marathe, John Park, Maya Pontone, Amanda Sardonis, and Vanessa Rhinesmith. All photos by Belfer Center unless otherwise noted.

the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, technology, environmental policy, and international affairs intersect, and (2) to prepare future generations of leaders for these arenas. Subscribe to Belfer Center publications at belfercenter.org/subscribe

@BelferCenter

Belfer in Brief

Center’s First Soccer Team Makes Playoffs

The recipients of this year’s coveted Harvard Global Institute grants for interdisciplinary, cross-collaborative research on critical global issues include four Belfer Centeraffiliated faculty members: Center Director Ash Carter, Middle East Initiative Faculty Chair Tarek Masoud, HKS Professor Arne Westad, and Director of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements Robert Stavins. Three other Harvard Kennedy School faculty are also recipients of the grants: Rema Hanna, Timothy Colton, and Tony Saich. The awards that range from $100,000 to $1 million will enable the faculty and their students to partner with scholars outside the U.S. to exchange ideas and search for solutions to worldwide issues such as climate change, migration, health, and cybersecurity. Stavins’ project will identify and compare innovative approaches to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions in states,

“Real Belfer C.F.,” the Belfer Center’s first-ever soccer team, reached the playoffs in their inaugural season. The co-ed team, consisting of Center staff and fellows, was established and captained by Laura Manley, director of the Technology and Public Purpose project. After a few post-work practices, the team played on Wednesday nights in Cambridge and earned a 1-2-2 record before losing in the first round of the playoffs to the eventual champions. Next up for the team: a one-day holiday-themed kickball tournament in December. Go Belfer!

provinces, and cities in China, India, and North America. Professors Masoud and Westad, along with their HKS colleague Colton and Harvard Business School’s Meg Rithmire, will study global neighborhoods to better understand the shape and logic of their roles, how solutions to global issues vary by region, and what roles regional actors may play. Carter’s project will explore how China and the U.S. can jointly promote greater international stability in cyberspace by identifying the options and resources available to the two governments that could lead to or reduce cyberspace conflict. Saich will look into how China can work collaboratively with the five other countries through which the Mekong River flows.

Newsletter | Fall–Winter 2018–2019

MARK WILKE

Belfer Center, HKS Researchers Receive Global Awards for Collaborative Work

PRINTED ON 100% RECYCLED PAPER