Belfer Center Newsletter Spring 2019

Spring 2019

www.belfercenter.org

BLUEPRINTS

FOR TACKLING GLOBAL CHALLENGES

Revitalizing Nuclear Security

ssess, a s t r o w rep l Two ne , globa y l e v i t 019 respec ty in 2 i r u c e rs es nuclea alleng h c r o j a offer d n and m a NATO— n both. e facing rength t s o t steps

Combating Complacency Strengthening Implementation Bolstering Cooperation

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Sustaining Leadership

The Future of NATO Reviving American Leadership

page 5

Restoring European Defense Strength Competing with China Upholding NATO's Democratic Values

PLUS: Student Impact · Hanoi Summit Reactions · New Members of Congress

From the Director S

eeing a U.S. aircraft carrier up close is an unforgettable experience. Movies convey some sense of scale. But only aboard a nuclearpowered, Nimitz-class carrier do you understand that this craft—longer than three football fields— is essentially a 4.5-acre floating fortress home to 3,000 American men and women who do everything from counter-piracy operations to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

Here at the Belfer Center, we produce dozens of research papers, publish hundreds of opinion pieces, and sponsor hundreds of seminars and other events. We host scores of fellows, conduct field work around the world, and teach thousands of students. That doesn’t just happen on its own. Finance specialists keep our budgets sharp. Program and operations staff organize stimulating events, some-

Staff Spotlight: Sharon Wilke Sharon Wilke’s fingerprints are hard to miss. You can see her professional touch In the politely persistent way she pitches scholarly work to national media, in the diverse range of content in this newsletter, and in her respon-

Belfer Center faculty, fellows, and staff, September 2018.

“Our scholars do critically important work. But they couldn’t do it without a great team working with them.”

siveness to communications needs across Center programs.

As Associate Director for Communications, Sharon has a hand in the team’s outreach strategy and in virtually every piece of public-facing content the Center produces—from op-eds and television interviews to books and event materials. Her colleagues have noticed her gracious attitude that drives this work, calling her “indispensable” and “relentlessly positive.”

Sharon, who recently marked 15 years of service to Harvard Kennedy School, is also known for the strong intern program she runs.

Many of her “graduates” have gone on to rewarding careers in journalism and academia.

Above deck, it’s common to greet and thank the pilots and officers. In conflict, they face the toughest choices and the highest stakes.

In my tours of various vessels as Secretary of Defense, I made it a point also to engage servicemembers who worked below deck. The phrase “it takes a village” is literally true for operating at sea. Technicians, mechanics, engineers; cooks, bakers, dishwashers; weapons and navigational specialists; and myriad other roles—all vital to a carrier’s mission.

As at sea, so on campus. Let’s be honest: Harvard isn’t known for its modesty. And it’s true: we are immensely proud of the worldclass scholars who advance knowledge and training at the intersection of science, technology, and global affairs. They do critically important work. But they couldn’t do it without a great team working with them.

times more than five a day. Project coordinators and faculty assistants keep our research efforts humming. Our communications team publishes and disseminates a wide range of research and marketing materials, including this newsletter. And so on.

It’s fitting to profile our scholars, and we will continue doing so. But beginning with this issue, we’d also like to call attention to the many staff who make the Center run. The adjacent article about Sharon Wilke is a great way to start. Among a thousand other things she does, Sharon edits the Center’s newsletter; in typical fashion, she resisted having the spotlight turned on her.

On behalf of the Center’s leadership team, we thank Sharon and all members of our Center’s productive and valued team.

“I can’t think of a more dynamic and engaging place to work,” Sharon said. “The Belfer Center attracts brilliant, insightful thinkers and creative doers who challenge each other regularly as they work to find solutions to some of our most serious problems.”

Outside the Belfer Center, you might find Sharon hiking conservation trails, kayaking in area waters, shopping at the Arlington Farmer’s Market, and working for local diversity and national climate change efforts. With her twin sons, she is currently planning a family trip to New Orleans where they’ll see firsthand the post-Katrina recovery of the Broadmoor community with which the Belfer Center was instrumental.

“Sharon is the ultimate team player,” said Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach. “Her intellectual curiosity and passion for science, technology, and global affairs makes us all better.”

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Newsletter | Spring 2019

Experts Offer Training, Mentorship to New Members of Congress I

Emerging Technologies and Public Good,” while Juliette Kayyem, Director of the Center’s Homeland Security Project and former Assistant Secretary of Intergovernmental Affairs with the Department of Homeland Security, and Robert Stavins, Director of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, participated in a panel on “Managing Catastrophes and Disaster Relief: Congress’ Role.”

In a session on “America vs. Hackers: Preventing and Responding to Cyber and Information Attacks,” Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach, who heads the Center’s Defending Digital Democracy Project (D3P) and was

previously DoD’s “Cyber Czar,” joined D3P Senior Fellow and former Presidential Campaign Manager Robby Mook in discussing efforts to increase election security. Former UN Ambassador Samantha Power, the Anna Lindh Professor of the Practice of Global Leadership and Public Policy, and Stephen Walt, the Robert and Renée Professor of International Affairs, engaged with members in a lively discussion of “America’s Role in the World,” while Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy Jason Furman, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, focused in his panel on “Continuing Economic Growth: Policies, Challenges, and Politics.”

MARTHA STEWART

n early December, several of the Belfer Center faculty and senior staff took part in the Institute of Politics’ annual Bipartisan Program for Newly Elected Members of Congress. In collaboration with the American Enterprise Institute, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Congressional Institute, the program brought together more than 60 new members for three days of briefings and discussions with Harvard and other experts about issues important to policymakers.

Belfer Center Director and former Secretary of Defense (DoD) Ash Carter spoke about “Technology and Public Purpose:

Samantha Power (right) greets newly elected Representative Ayanna Pressley, who represents Massachusetts’s 7th Congressional District.

Ash Carter greets Representative Dan Crenshaw, who represents Texas’s 2nd Congressional District.

Juliette Kayyem offers tips on Congress’ role in managing catastrophes and disaster relief during a panel discussion with new members.

Eric Rosenbach chats with Representative Elissa Slotkin, who represents Michigan’s 8th Congressional District.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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BLUEPRINTS FOR TACKLING 2019 A Vision for Nuclear Security

by Jacob Carozza

I SEAN KELLY / HUDSON INST.

nternational efforts to prevent nuclear terrorism have entered a new era of uncertainty. Terrorist threats are evolving, and it is increasingly unclear if nuclear security protections against them will keep pace. If improvements to nuclear security do not adapt to these threats, the risk of nuclear terrorism will grow.

the report states. “But important weaknesses remain, and the evolution of the threat remains unpredictable. The danger that terrorists could get and use a nuclear bomb, or sabotage a major nuclear facility, or spread dangerous radioactive material in a ‘dirty bomb,’ remains too high.”

The authors—Managing the Atom’s Professor of Practice Matthew Bunn, Senior Research Associate Nickolas Roth, and Senior Fellow William H. Tobey—presented their findings and recommendations at a Hudson Institute event in Washington, D.C. on January 29.

Writing in The Hill, the authors urged 2020 presidential Nickolas Roth joined co-authors William Tobey (left) and Matthew candidates to develop a plan for Bunn at a Hudson Institute event to launch their report, Revitalizing reducing nuclear terrorism risks Nuclear Security in an Era of Uncertainty on January 29. and offered a reminder that the Revitalizing Nuclear Security in an Era of issue should transcend partisan politics. “Every Uncertainty, a new report from the Project on president for more than two decades, including Managing the Atom (MTA), highlights this Donald Trump, has described nuclear terrorism alarming reality and outlines steps the global as one of the gravest dangers the United States community must take to improve security for faces,” they write. weapons-usable nuclear material.

The report is the latest in a long-standing “Nuclear security around the world has series on nuclear security from MTA, and the improved dramatically over the last three first since the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit. decades—which demonstrates that with In that time, countries have continued to take focused leadership, major progress is possible,” measurable steps to improve nuclear security, P R O J E C T O N M A N A G I N G T H E AT O M

R E A D T H E F U L L R E P O RT:

Revitalizing Nuclear Security in an Era of Uncertainty

“Revitalizing Nuclear Security in an Era of Uncertainty”

Matthew Bunn Nickolas Roth William H. Tobey

REPORT JANUARY 2019

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belfercenter.org/NuclearSecurity2019

Newsletter | Spring 2019

“The danger that terrorists could get and use a nuclear bomb, or sabotage a major nuclear facility, or spread dangerous radioactive material in a ‘dirty bomb,’ remains too high.” from requiring protections against cyber attacks to launching programs to strengthen security culture in nuclear organizations. But momentum is slowing, the report notes.

“High-level political attention to nuclear security and overcoming obstacles has largely faded, international mechanisms for fostering nuclear security action and cooperation have not managed to fill the gap created by the absence of nuclear security summits, and political disputes continue to impede efforts to sustain or expand cooperation in crucial areas,” the report says.

The authors recommend action to regain the momentum in four key areas: combating complacency; strengthening nuclear security implementation on the ground; bolstering frameworks for international nuclear security cooperation; and sustaining nuclear security leadership.

MTA has released two policy briefs summarizing major aspects of the report, and more will be released in the coming months. Bunn, Roth, and Tobey also continue to discuss the report’s findings and recommendations with government officials.

CHALLENGES NATO in Crisis

by Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook

A

s the 70th anniversary of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) approaches in early April, the world’s oldest and most successful military alliance of democratic nations faces serious and complex challenges to its purpose, effectiveness, and unity.

Burns addressed the report’s findings in conRestoring U.S. leadership within NATO versation with former U.S. Vice President Joe is paramount, Burns and Lute argue in the Biden in a mainstage event. The authors also disreport, recommending that Congress act to cussed their conclusions with the NATO Deputy protect NATO by passing legislation this year, Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller in a Town requiring Congressional approval should Hall discussion at the Security Conference.

President Trump attempt to alter U.S. treaty “NATO is facing one of its most difficult crises in seven decades,” said Burns, Harvard Kennedy School professor and Faculty Chair of the Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship.

“While NATO has strate—Nicholas Burns gic challenges to meet, the single greatest threat is the Former U.S. Ambassadors to NATO Nicholas Burns (left) and Douglas Lute In a Belfer Center report released at the absence of strong, princispeak about their recent report, NATO at Seventy: An Alliance in Crisis during a Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship event on February 26.

Munich Security Conference in February, pled American presidential based on six months of extensive discussions leadership for the first time with European and North American leaders, in its history.” commitments to NATO allies or seek to take former U.S. Ambassadors to NATO Douglas Biden agreed the Trump administration the U.S. out of the Alliance altogether. They also Lute and Nicholas Burns underscored 10 major had needlessly weakened U.S. ties to Europe. offer recommendations on how NATO should challenges and offered recommendations to bolLute, now a non-resident Senior Fellow address low European defense spending and ster this critically important alliance. Published with the Europe Project, said, “Our goal with anti-democratic governments within the orgadays after it was learned that President Trump this report is to prompt attention to tough, nization, which are a “cancer” on the Alliance, had considered unilaterally withdrawing from strategic challenges and deep introspection Burns and Lute said.

NATO, the report was widely discussed among among the allies. NATO should move revitalThey make practical recommendations on European and U.S. Congressional leadership ized and retooled into the decades ahead, and how to contain Russian aggression in Ukraine gathered in Munich and found broad resonance again demonstrate its ability to adapt.” and beyond, and how to emerge from the war in the international press. At the conference, in Afghanistan. They also highlight NATO’s strengths in competing with the expanding international agenda of China. While they recNATO at ommend keeping the door open to new NATO Seventy R E A D T H E F U L L R E P O RT: members, Burns and Lute emphasize the neces“NATO at 70: An Alliance in Crisis” sity of internal reforms, including a stronger role for the NATO Secretary General. belfercenter.org/nato70

“The single greatest threat [to NATO] is the absence of strong, principled American presidential leadership.”

P R O J E C T O N E U R O P E A N D T H E T R A N S AT L A N T I C R E L AT I O N S H I P

An Alliance in Crisis Ambassador Douglas Lute

Ambassador Nicholas Burns

REPORT • • • • • • • • •• • • •

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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HAMID FOROUTAN / ISNA / AP

Global Relations

In this Jan. 15, 2011 photo, Iran’s heavy water nuclear facility is backdropped by mountains near the central city of Arak, Iran.

Iran’s Secret Nuclear Documents

by William Tobey and Matthew Bunn

I

n mid-January, a team of scholars from the Belfer Center’s Intelligence and Managing the Atom Projects traveled to Tel Aviv, Israel to examine samples of, and receive briefings on, an archive of documents related to Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The large cache includes some 55,000 pages of documents and a further 55,000 files on CDs that include photos and videos. A clandestine Israeli intelligence operation spirited the materials out of Iran in early 2018.

Although they represent only 20 percent of the documents collected and secretly stored by Iranian officials in a warehouse outside of Tehran, these materials permit a detailed examination of Iran’s nuclear activities in the period from 1999 to 2003, when Iranian authorities issued a “halt order” that curtailed the full-blown nuclear weapons program known as Project AMAD. In April 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made public many of

A forthcoming report will explore both the conclusions that can be drawn and the mysteries that remain. the key revelations and documents in the Iran nuclear archive. Subsequently, the entire collection was shared with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United States, and other relevant governments, while additional governments and media were briefed on the contents. Some materials were made available to researchers and analysts, including Belfer Center scholars Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Aaron Arnold, Matthew Bunn, Steven Miller, William Tobey, and Intelligence Project Coordinator Caitlin

Chase. The group represented diverse views regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the Iran nuclear deal, but reached unanimous conclusions on the archive.

The documents that the Belfer group were shown confirm that senior Iranian officials had decided in the late 1990s to actually manufacture nuclear weapons and carry out an underground nuclear test; that Iran’s program to do so made more technical progress than had previously been understood; and that Iran had help from quite a number of foreign scientists, and access to several foreign nuclear weapon designs. The archive also leaves open a wide range of questions, including what plan, if any, Iran has had with respect to nuclear weapons in the nearly 16 years since Iran’s government ordered a halt to most of the program in late 2003.

The Belfer team’s forthcoming report will explore both the conclusions that can be drawn and the mysteries that remain.

Resetting Relations with Russia Ten years ago, then Secretary of State Hillary

According to these experts, the Kremlin’s

after the Ukraine crisis; and relegating relations

Clinton followed up on Vice President Joe Biden’s

poor choices included: “unacceptable aggression

with Moscow to a “secondary” status on the U.S.

proposed “reset” in relations with Moscow by

against Ukraine;” “repressive measures” against

foreign policy agenda.

giving her Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, a

its own citizens; and giving asylum to Edward

symbolic red button marked “RESET.” However,

Snowden, which led then President Obama to

» Read Russia Matters’ full article on resetting

within a few years, the “reset” had already failed.

cancel a summit with his Russian counterpart,

U.S.-Russia relations with more insights from

Vladimir Putin.

Graham Allison, Fiona Hill, Thomas Graham,

Russia Matters, a Belfer Center project sup-

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ported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York,

The list of counterproductive Washington

Nikolas Gvosdev, Henry Kissinger, Andrew

recently compiled insights from 11 Russia experts

actions included: insisting that Russia accept U.S.

Kuchins, Robert Legvold, Anatol Lieven, Michael

on the various reasons that the reset didn’t last

primacy and the rules of a U.S.-led world order;

McFaul, Angela Stent, and Dmitri Trenin at

and what might be done now to improve relations

treating Russia as a foe and “demonizing” Putin;

RussiaMatters.org

between the U.S. and Russia.

“cutting off all communication and cooperation” Newsletter | Spring 2019

Impacts of the Hanoi Summit “Because of how the Hanoi Summit ended, Kim Jong Un lost face,” said John Park, Director of the Belfer Center’s Korea Project.

“Rather than the expected launch of a process in which the working groups were to begin complex negotiations, we’re currently seeing advanced preparations of a different kind of launch—this one in North Korea at the Sohae satellite launch facility.” The key question now, Park said, is how Kim will regain face, “a paramount task for a leader who is only 35 years of age. The upside of his youth may be a calculation that he can resume testing, restore face, and then wait out the Trump Administration.”

EVAN VUCCI / AP

Following the breakdown of February’s Trump-Kim Summit in Hanoi, Belfer Center experts discussed the impact of the shortened summit.

President Donald Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Thursday, February 28, 2019 in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Excerpts from additional insights and reactions to the Hanoi Summit: Graham Allison

Nicholas Burns

Martin Malin

Susan Rice

Wendy Sherman

Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, HKS

Faculty Chair, Future of Diplomacy Project; Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations

Executive Director, Project on Managing the Atom

Senior Fellow, Belfer Center

Senior Fellow, Belfer Center; Director, Center for Public Leadership, HKS

“Putting the summit into a broader context, I am reminded of a Chinese maxim that says ‘a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.’ Although the road to denuclearization is long, my bet is that history will remember the Hanoi Summit as a significant step along the way.”

(The National Interest, March 1, 2019)

“Trump should end the buddy diplomacy with Kim and empower his first-rate negotiator Steve Biegun.

They should refashion the coalition against Kim with South Korea, Japan and China, return to sanctions pressure, and renew military exercises with South Korea.”

“The question is whether the working level diplomats will be empowered to meet and move the process forward. The focus should…be on what is still achievable: a continuing de-escalation of tension, and an expanding bilateral diplomatic process aimed at peace, denuclearization, and economic development on the Korean peninsula.”

“[W]hen the leaders fail, under the spotlight, to reach a deal, it’s harder to put Humpty Dumpty back together. If there remains a moratorium on testing of nuclear weapons as well as ballistic missiles, that’s certainly better than the alternative. But people shouldn’t confuse a moratorium on testing with a freeze of their nuclear program.”

(NPR Morning Edition, February 28, 2019)

Matthew Bunn

Ash Carter

Joseph S. Nye

Gary Samore

William Tobey

Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom; Professor of Practice, HKS

Director, Belfer Center

Member of the Board, Belfer Center; Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor

Senior Fellow, Belfer Center Korea Project; Associate, Project on Managing the Atom

Senior Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom

“North Korea is not likely to give up all its nuclear weapons any time soon. But it might very well be willing to reduce nuclear dangers step-by-step in return for parallel steps to lift sanctions, improve relations, and provide benefits.”

“The only way to succeed is coercive diplomacy….

Kim Jong Un will have to rethink what he’s willing to do to take concrete steps forward. In return we should gradually take concrete steps in his direction—but only gradually and only reciprocally.”

(CNBC, February 28, 2019)

“Give credit where credit is due. Trump was played by Kim at their first meeting in Singapore, but avoided that fate in Hanoi. Now negotiations should continue at lower levels and properly prepare the ground.”

“The failure of the Hanoi Summit may be a blessing in disguise.

For both President Trump and Chairman Kim, it is a teachable moment that personal chemistry cannot substitute for preparation in dealing with the complex and difficult issues of denuclearization.”

“[If] the meeting had been well prepared, it’s likely the president wouldn’t have found himself in the position of a dramatic flameout….Real leadership requires a serious, disciplined negotiation involving the full diplomatic force of the U.S. and our allies, an approach necessary to even imagine getting back on a pathway.”

"In some ways, this was a better outcome than the Singapore Summit. President Trump reversed the North’s perception that it is better to deal with him because he offers unilateral concessions, e.g. the cessation of U.S.-ROK military exercises, and because they can then avoid discussion of thorny verification details.”

Read full comments at

belfercenter.org/HanoiSummit Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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Q&A: Erica Chenoweth Q

Your research has shown that nonviolent mass campaigns can be twice as effective as their armed equivalents.

But are activists themselves increasingly turning to civil resistance?

LARA KREUGER / HDS

Erica Chenoweth is Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and a Susan S. and Kenneth L. Wallach Professor at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study. Her research focuses on political violence and its alternatives. Foreign Policy magazine ranked her among the Top 100 Global Thinkers of 2013. Her forthcoming book, Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know explores what civil resistance is, how it works, why it sometimes fails, how violence and repression affect it, and the long-term impacts of such resistance.

Chenoweth: It seems that way. According to the data that my research team is collecting, we live in the decade in which there have been more mass nonviolent movements around the world than at any time in recorded history.

“There is a lot to learn from historical cases about the ways that terrorism affects political life (and vice versa).”

What’s a common misconception HKS students have about terrorism?

A lot of people—not just HKS students—think that terrorism was essentially “invented” on 9/11. But terrorism is a tactic whose use extends back centuries, and there is a lot to learn from historical cases about the ways that terrorism affects political life (and vice versa).

It’s Sept. 12, 2001 and President Bush is asking for your advice on how to fight back against terrorism. What do you tell him?

Proportionality is everything. The strategy of terrorism is to provoke an overreaction and polarize a population at an exceedingly low cost. Resisting the urge to respond with overwhelming strength and resources can be difficult politically, but a counterterrorism strategy that focuses on proportional responses will be effective and much less costly.

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Erica Chenoweth speaks on nonviolent, civil resistance at Harvard Divinity School.

Social media was once thought to be a great amplifier of nonviolent change movements.

Now it’s seen as aiding authoritarian control.

Taking the long view, how does disruptive media technology tend to influence civil resistance?

Well, Gandhi organized the Salt March in 1930 by walking town to town and gathering thousands of marchers over 240 miles. So clearly civil resistance predates Facebook. There was certainly a time when social media seemed to benefit organizers and activists in terms of coordination and communication. But just like any communications technology, social media is a tool that anyone can use—including governments wanting to surveil or control people power movements. In general, I think it’s useful to see disruptive media technologies as characteristics rather than causes of civil resistance over time.

You love fly-fishing. Which rivers are on your bucket list?

The River Dee in Scotland, and any number of salmon fisheries in the Pacific Northwest.

Newsletter | Spring 2019

What else do you like to do outside work that might surprise readers?

I am not sure there is anything surprising, but my top activities outside of work are reading, hiking, volunteering, and spending time with friends and family. I also have pretty eclectic musical tastes. In the past year, I’ve seen Nas at Red Rocks, Madame Butterfly at the Santa Fe Opera, and lots in between.

What are you seeing and hearing from this generation of students at HKS that gives you hope for the world?

I find HKS students incredibly motivated, smart, and curious. Our students have really unique life experiences and impressive backgrounds. But most of all, I appreciate the drive to better understand how to solve big problems and make the world a better place. It’s a total joy to be part of the HKS community with such amazing students.

Is there a current nonviolent resistance movement the media should be watching?

Yes—everyone should be watching Algeria and Sudan.

Q&A: Zoe Marks Zoe Marks is a Lecturer in Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School. Her research and teaching interests focus on the intersections of conflict and political violence; race, gender and inequality; peacebuilding; and African politics. Her current book project examines the internal dynamics of rebellion in Sierra Leone to understand how and why rebel groups can sustain a viable threat to the state without widespread support.

What led you to focus your academic work on African Studies?

Marks: I’ve always been committed to racial justice and to understanding systems of violence and inequality. As I got older, I became increasingly interested in studying these issues on a global scale. Repairing my lack of knowledge about African politics was an obvious starting point.

What’s a leading misconception Westerners (even those at HKS) have about Africa?

There’s this pervasive idea that Africa is on the “margins” or that the continent has been left behind in the march of history. But African countries have long been central to the formation of the contemporary nation-state system and the global capitalist order. Now that globalization is happening at an exponential rate, African states foreshadow the challenges the rest of the world will soon be facing.

What do you wish more people understood about conflict and political violence?

Once war begins, it fundamentally changes the calculus and constraints of all actors. Instead of predicting why conflicts break out, I have studied how wars persist and why rebellion can be so resilient. Survival is a powerful motivator. Armed groups keep fighting if there are no exit pathways. That’s why finding ways to make “losing” today look better than losing tomorrow is so important for peacebuilding efforts.

What are you telling HKS students about their role in bringing about fuller gender equality?

This is such an important issue. Three concrete things spring to mind: First, I share my experiences as candidly as possible with women students in particular. Second, intersectional feminism teaches us that gender equality is only secure if everyone has equality. I try to make room for these conversations in my classroom

by asking students to seek out missing voices, and I invite guest speakers who have been historically excluded or underrepresented at the Kennedy School. Finally, I am totally fortunate to have amazing women colleagues who I learn from and with whom I collaborate.

“Instead of predicting why conflicts break out, I have studied how wars persist and why rebellion can be so resilient.”

What are some of the most encouraging yet under-reported African trends you’re seeing?

Right now, the fastest-growing economies in Africa are not exporting oil and minerals, but rather are building diversified agrarian-led economies with high levels of intentional value-chain investment. Another exciting trend is the growing political voice of young people through digital communication and through mass mobilization. Finally, African women have always been hugely inspiring because of their ability to advocate powerfully for themselves.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s gender-balanced cabinet is a powerful signal for people across the continent that women’s inclusion strengthens democracy and legitimacy.

What job did you want to have when you were 10?

I think by 10 I wanted to be president and a basketball star and maybe a lawyer (my back-up plan); but when I was younger, at 7, I was much more focused—I founded an Earth Club with my sister and best friend. We had only two meetings, but we had a flag.

Any stories you can share from your field work in Sierra Leone?

I think my favorite is the string of stories I collected while learning to cook Sierra Leonean food with the former wives of the rebel leader, Foday Sankoh. A lot of my work has focused on the essential roles women play in making war and rebellion possible. Cooking with women from the Revolutionary United Front was an incredible privilege, because in spending that time together they not only told me about their lives during the war, they taught me heaps about their present-day experiences, and educated me in local cuisine and cooking techniques.

COURTESY ZOE MARKS

Q

Zoe Marks with her translator Patricia Turay and her family in Makeni, Sierra Leone, where Marks was researching impacts of civil war and its aftermath.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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MARTHA STEWART

Belfer Center in Action

AI Accountability: Joi Ito, Director of the MIT Media Lab, discusses “Responsible AI: A Guide to the Future” during a Technology and Public Purpose Project (TAPP) event. TAPP works to ensure that emerging technologies are developed and managed in ways to serve the public good.

Data and Truth: Jill Lepore, the David Woods Kemper ‘41 Professor of American History at Harvard University, presents her thoughts on “How Data Killed Facts” at a Belfer Center Board Lunch. She is the author of These Truths: A History of the United States.

African Impact: Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, discusses at a Future of Diplomacy Project event how Africa’s future will impact all of us and why it must be a priority for U.S. policymakers.

Conversation with Malala: Nobel Laureate Malala Yousafzai speaks about her experiences and her goals in a conversation with HKS Professor and former Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power during a JFK Jr. Forum honoring Yousafzai as the Kennedy School’s 2018 Gleitsman Activist Award recipient.

Congressional Challenges: Congressman Joe Kennedy III (Massachusetts) speaks about the intersection between domestic and foreign policy in a conversation during a Future of Diplomacy Project seminar at Harvard Kennedy School for students, faculty, and fellows.

TOM FITZSIMMONS

Distancing Dilemma: “The Future of BREXIT” was the focus of a JFK, Jr. Forum moderated by the Europe Project’s Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook (left). Panelists were (from left) Harriet Cross, British Consul General to New England, Ed Balls, former UK Shadow Chancellor, and Amanda Sloat, Europe Project Fellow.

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Newsletter | Spring 2019

MARTHA STEWART

Robotland: Harvard Berkman Center’s Mary L. Gray (center) makes a point during a JFK Jr. Forum on “The Future of Labor Policy and Work in an Artificial Intelligence World.” The event was moderated by digital HKS Director David Eaves (left) and included Brandeis Heller School’s David Weil and HKS’s Jason Furman (not pictured).

Climate Leadership: Fran Ulmer (standing), former Chair of the U.S. Arctic Research Commission, and longtime Arctic journalist Elizabeth Arnold, present a case study titled “Can Women Tip the Balance for Climate Action?” at an Arctic Initiative seminar for students, fellows, and faculty. Ulmer is a former Lt. Governor of Alaska.

Digital Africa: Nanjala Nyabola, author of Digital Democracy, Analogue Politics, speaks on “Digital Democracy in Africa” during a Defending Digital Democracy (D3P) seminar at the Belfer Center. Nyabola, a writer and political analyst, discussed the impact of the Internet on Kenyan politics.

Commanding Presence: Gen. Joseph Votel, Commander of United States Central Command, shares his views on the role of the U.S. military with students and fellows during a visit to the Center hosted by the National Security Fellows Program. He also took part in a brainstorming session with faculty.

Combating Climate Change: Robert Stavins (center), Director of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, speaks during a panel discussion titled “Elaborating and Implementing Article 6 of the Paris Agreement,” during a Harvard Project official side event at the COP24 Climate Conference in Poland in December.

JASON CHAPMAN

Critical Connections: Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs, discusses the challenges and opportunities that exist for the future of the European Union during a Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship Project hosted by Professor Nicholas Burns.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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Featured Fellows

Water-Energy Nexus

Middle East Initiative

Masahiko Haraguchi

Lihi Ben Shitrit

by Christian Gibbons

by Hannah Ebanks

W

L

The Borders of Science, Society, and Environment hat makes a person interested in the relationship between science, society, and the environment? For Masahiko Haraguchi, it was the paradox of sustainable development. While working with a timber company in Thailand, where the government suddenly outlawed deforestation, he first became aware that sustainability can have negative consequences, like job losses, especially in developing countries.

His interest in this problem led him to study climate policy as a World Bank Graduate Scholar—and eventually to a job with the World Bank itself. While there, Haraguchi designed programs that would help cities adapt to climate change. His understanding of environmental adaptation deepened even further as a doctoral student at Columbia University, where he conducted research and fieldwork on disaster risk management and catastrophe recovery.

As a postdoctoral research fellow at the Belfer Center, Haraguchi studies how waste can be converted into usable energy and nutrients.

Haraguchi believes his experiences have helped him become a better global citizen, both professionally and personally. “To be a global citizen, one of the important skills is to be able to cross borders,” he says. “And that doesn’t just mean geographical “To be a global citizen, borders, but borders between cultures one of the important and ways of thinking.”

Haraguchi experienced the imporskills is to be able to tance of seeking out various views about cross borders.” issues while participating in an international fellowship program where he and others made recommendations on the governance of geoengineering. He doesn’t think any part of society should move forward on such vital decisions without first dialoguing with others.

For critical issues like this, he says, “it’s really important to have consensus among multiple stakeholders.”

Haraguchi also credits his time in the U.S. with making him a better global citizen. “One of the best ways to get this kind of mindset is to become a minority,” he explains. “For example, I’m from Japan, and in Japan, I’m part of a majority.” But his first nine months here—in Arkansas, where he was a minority—convinced him to return to the U.S. for study. “And I really like Southern culture,” he laughs. “People are so friendly.”

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Preventing Self-Identity from Interfering with Research ihi Ben Shitrit was conducting ethnographic research in Hebron, Palestine when she found herself being photographed by tourists— not because she looked out of place, but because she blended in with the Jewish settlers she was interviewing. She wondered if she would be identified as “a militant settler in Hebron.”

Born and raised in Israel, Ben Shitrit The challenge is describes “identity” experiences like this as “to understand “powerful and good” because they compelled women who her to ensure that her own beliefs not interfere with her research. During two years of field- are my political work in Israel and the West Bank, she focused opponents.” on the Jewish settler movement, the ultra-Orthodox Shas, the Islamic Movement in Israel, and the Palestinian Hamas.

Her resulting book was Righteous Transgressions: Women’s Activism on the Israeli and Palestinian Religious Right.

“Women are doing 60 to 70 percent of the work” in their respective conservative movements, from protesting to occupying leadership positions, Ben Shitrit says. The label she uses to describe this behavior is “frames of exception” where it is considered acceptable for women to step out of their traditional roles because of the “exceptional circumstances” of the time.

A challenge for Ben Shitrit has been preventing her self-identity as a feminist scholar from interfering with her research on women who are activists in movements that promote highly conservative and patriarchal gender ideologies.

In order to be more receptive to what the women are saying, she developed a method called “acting as if.” The challenge, she says, is “to be able to listen, to be able to hear, to be able to maybe even understand women who are, in fact, my political opponents.” The goal of her research is to highlight these under-recognized women by discovering how they contribute to a movement’s success.

As a Middle East Initiative Research Fellow at the Belfer Center, Ben Shitrit is currently researching the relationships among gender, religion, and sacred spaces like Temple Mount/Al-Haram al-Sharif and the Western Wall in Jerusalem.

Newsletter | Spring 2019

Preparing Students for Impact I

n the fall, Harvard Kennedy School students and Belfer student fellows Bo Julie Crowley and Raina Davis represented the Belfer Center’s Defending Digital Democracy Project at a London conference on disinformation.

Inspired, they joined with Casey Corcoran, another Belfer International and Global Affairs Student Fellow, and submitted a proposal to the Center to do a study of disinformation in Taiwan and South Korea, both of which have a long legacy of disinformation. With Center support, they spent January interviewing Taiwanese and South Korean officials and are completing a report to be published this spring.

This academic year, the Center greatly expanded opportunities for students.

Encouraging student research initiatives is one of many ways the Belfer Center helps prepare the next generation of leaders in science and international affairs, an essential component of the Belfer Center’s mission. Central to those future leaders are Kennedy School students as well as pre-and post-doctoral research fellows.

A number of Center programs and projects provide research opportunities for students both in the U.S. and abroad. This fall, for example, students traveled with Arctic Initiative staff and faculty to Iceland to participate in the Arctic Circle Assembly. These Arctic Innovators proposed new ideas for tackling critical climate issues faced by Arctic nations.

Harvard Kennedy School students and staff listen to Cassandra Favart, Project Coordinator for the Geopolitics of Energy Project, speak at a student event hosted by the Belfer Center.

Students working with the Defending Digital Democracy Project (D3P) interface directly with state and local election leaders, most recently at a conference hosted by D3P with over 50 election officials and government leaders discussing takeaways from the 2018 midterms. In addition, a team of current D3P students and alumni hosted a tabletop exercise (TTX) this fall at the RSA Conference in San Francisco for cybersecurity professionals.

The Center’s Middle East Initiative (MEI) provides opportunities throughout the year for students to deeply engage with pressing policy issues in the MENA region and shape their future policy careers. This past January term, MEI awarded funding to seven students for internships or research related to their academic focus on the region. These students will produce policy briefs and recommendations for leading institutions, contributing to a growing body of research that informs public policy in the region. In addition, MEI supported two for-credit field study courses and a policy field visit, sending a total of 63 students and fellows to the Middle East in January.

(See more on page 16.)

The Center’s newest initiative is Belfer Policy Chats, a series of gatherings that enable students to join Center research fellows in chats about issues at the forefront of global policy. The aim is to provide a forum to engage informally on a range of critical topics. A recent chat included Middle East Initiative/ Cyber Project fellow James Shires, digital HKS Associate Director Vanessa Rhinesmith, and Center Executive Director Aditi Kumar in a discussion titled “Can we write Human Rights into the Internet?”

The Center supports the Women in Defense, Diplomacy and Development (W3D) student group in events like their new series The Future (of Foreign Affairs) is Female and the Female Faculty Lunch Series. Among recent guests and speakers: Sen. Claire McCaskill, former Democratic U.S. Senator (Missouri), and Meghan O’Sullivan, Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs at the Kennedy School.

The Center also hosts For the Common Defense, a weekly speaker series, and co-hosts various activities with The Future Society and the Black Student Union.

Other Opportunities for Students Belfer IGA Student Fellows: Each year, 10-15 Belfer International

Funding Support: The Center encourages proposals from

and Global Affairs student fellows are selected from among a

students and student organizations for research, publications,

number of HKS applicants. These student fellows receive research

and events related to the Center’s core interests.

funding and are paired with a Center program or project where they observe and participate in policy research and work directly

Research and Internships: A full list of programs and projects

with leading faculty and researchers.

that offer internships and research opportunities is available at belfercenter.org/students.

Browse our new page on student resources at

belfercenter.org/ students

Career Talks: Several times each semester, the Belfer Center invites students and fellows to meet informally with visiting current or former government and other officials to discuss career questions.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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Hot off the Presses

Economics of the Environment: Selected Readings, 7th Edition

By Robert N. Stavins, A.J. Meyer Professor of Energy & Economic Development, HKS Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc. 2019

Alan Brinkley: A Life in History Edited by David Greenberg; Moshik Temkin, Associate Professor of History and Public Policy, HKS; and Mason B. Williams Columbia University Press January 2019

How We Win:

How Cutting-Edge Entrepreneurs, Political Visionaries, Enlightened Business Leaders, and Social Media Mavens Can Defeat the Extremist Threat

Double Jeopardy: Combating Nuclear Terror and Climate Change

India and Nuclear Asia: Forces, Doctrine, and Danger

By Farah Pandith, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Future of Diplomacy Project

By Daniel Poneman, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

By Yogesh Joshi and Frank O’Donnell, former Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow, International Security Program/ Project on Managing the Atom

HarperCollins March 2019

Belfer Center Studies in International Security MIT Press Forthcoming June 2019

Georgetown University Press September 2018

Engineering a Better Future:

Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower

Why Alliances Fail: Islamist and Leftist Coalitions in North Africa

Edited by Eswaran Subrahmanian; Tolu Odumosu, Associate, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program (STPP); Jeff Y. Tsao, Research Fellow, STPP

By Michael Beckley, Associate, International Security Program

By Matt Buehler, former Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Middle East Initiative

Interplay between Engineering, Social Sciences, and Innovation

Springer Nature 2018

Cornell Studies in Security Affairs Cornell University Press September 2018

Syracuse University Press November 2018

Compiled by Susan Lynch, ISP/STPP

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Newsletter | Spring 2019

Newsmakers

Vol. 43 No. 3 Winter 2018/19

Halla Hrund Logadóttir, Co-Director of the Center’s Arctic Initiative, has been named one of the top 29 Young Global Leaders in North America by the World Economic Forum.

Membership in this class of young leaders will include five years of activities aimed at

India’s Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine, and Capabilities Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang Since 2003, India has been building its nuclear arsenal beyond what is necessary for a purely retaliatory or minimum deterrence capability. India’s actions could lead to a regional arms race or even the use of nuclear weapons in a war with Pakistan.

creating “transformative experiences for next-generation leaders that enhance their skills, broaden their world view, and lead to groundbreaking initiatives.” With this Honor, Logadóttir hopes to increase attention to Arctic issues and initiatives.

Former United Nations Ambassador Samantha Power, Anna Lindh Professor of the Practice of Global Leadership and Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, based at the Belfer Center, will receive the prestigious 2019 Moynihan Prize in Social Science and Public Policy from the

The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful Deborah Jordan Brooks, Stephen G. Brooks, Brian D. Greenhill, and Mark L. Haas Many states with young populations are growing old fast. If states with older populations engage in violent conflict less frequently than states with large numbers of young people, the implications for the international order could be significant.

American Academy of Political and Social Science (AAPSS). The award, which will be presented at

Bad World: The Negativity Bias in International Politics

a ceremony in Washington, D.C. in October. The 2018 recipient was the Center’s John P. Holdren.

Dominic D.P. Johnson and Dominic Tierney

Washington Post Columnist David Ignatius received the Special George Polk Award for his writing on the murder of Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi. Ignatius was presented the award—

Negative phenomena more strongly influence leaders’ judgments and decisionmaking than do positive phenomena. This so-called negativity bias helps explain state behavior that contributes to the security dilemma, threat inflation, and the persistence of war.

along with the Post’s Karen Attiah—for “their eloquence and resolve in demanding accountability from the Saudi Arabian government and candor from the Trump Administration in the wake of the gruesome murder of their colleague and friend, Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.” One of the most prestigious prizes in journalism, the Polk Awards memorialize George Polk, a CBS correspondent who was killed while covering the civil war in Greece.

Evan A. Feigenbaum, former International Security Program/Managing the Atom Research Fellow who worked on China-related issues at the Kennedy School, has been named Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In his new role,

Nationalism, Collaboration, and Resistance: France under Nazi Occupation Matthew Adam Kocher, Adria K. Lawrence, and Nuno P. Monteiro Many scholars and analysts suggest that nationalism produces resistance against foreign powers, but a reconsideration of the German occupation of France in World War II reveals how a population might instead choose acquiescence or active collaboration. Domestic political competition and the international context prevented French nationalism from being translated into wholesale resistance.

Feigenbaum will oversee work on a dynamic region encompassing both East Asia and South Asia, including the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing and Carnegie India in New Delhi. He is

RUSI

a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs.

Grand Strategy, Security, and Statecraft Research Fellow William James was awarded second prize in the Royal United Services Institute’s Trench Gascoigne essay competition for his entry, “Salvaging Grand Strategy.”

Why China Has Not Caught Up Yet: MilitaryTechnological Superiority, Systems Integration, and the Challenges of Imitation, Reverse Engineering, and Cyber-Espionage Andrea Gilli and Mauro Gilli The extraordinary complexity of today’s advanced weapons systems has significantly reduced the ability of states to imitate other states’ military technology.

Consequently, U.S. rivals such as China will continue to struggle to develop indigenous capabilities that can match those of the United States.

The award was presented by the UK Chief of Defence Staff General Sir Nick Carter and former British Foreign Secretary Lord William Hague. The Trench Gascoigne Essay Prize, which dates back to 1874, is awarded for original writing on contemporary issues of national and international defense and security.

The International Security journal is edited at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press. Questions may be directed to IS@harvard.edu.

Follow us on Twitter @journal_is Compiled by International Security staff

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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The Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Ash Carter, Director Eric Rosenbach, Co-Director 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, Massachusetts www.belfercenter.org

Belfer Center Newsletter Spring 2019 EDITOR: Sharon Wilke Associate Director of Communications sharon_wilke@hks.harvard.edu DESIGNER: Andrew Facini Publishing Manager andrew_facini@hks.harvard.edu PHOTOGRAPHER: Benn Craig Multimedia Producer bennett_craig@hks.harvard.edu

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The Belfer Center has a dual mission: (1) to provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge about

The Communications Office was assisted in the production of this newsletter by Hannah Ebanks, Karen Ejiofor, Christian Gibbons, Rex Horner, Susan Lynch, John Park, and William Tobey.

All photos by Belfer Center unless otherwise noted.

the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, technology, environmental policy, and international affairs intersect, and (2) to prepare future generations of leaders for these arenas. Subscribe to Belfer Center publications at belfercenter.org/subscribe

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Belfer in Brief Belfer Center Ranked World’s Top University Think Tank

Remembering Marie Besançon

For the sixth year in a row, the Belfer Center was named the best universityaffiliated research center in the world. The rankings, released in February, appear in the 2018 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report.

“The Belfer Center exists to build a more secure, peaceful world,” said Center Director Ash Carter. “Through active engagement with leaders in government, business, and media around the globe, our community of scholars, students, and staff go beyond intellectual advancement to lasting policy impact that serves the public good.”

Students Conduct Research in Gulf Region More than 60 students from seven Harvard graduate schools traveled to the Middle East over the January term to take part in three different Middle East Initiative (MEI) internships and research programs. As the Emirates Leadership Initiative celebrated its five year anniversary, 20 Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) students and fellows embarked on a weeklong field visit on gender inclusion policy in the United Arab Emirates. Fourteen students and one Nieman fellow joined Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) Prof. Claude

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Bruderlein in Lebanon for the sixth year of a joint HKS-HSPH course on humanitarian negotiations in the Middle East, examining dilemmas around safe return for Syrian refugees. And MEI’s Hilary Rantisi joined Harvard Divinity School’s (HDS) Diane Moore and 16 students for a new HDS course entitled “Narratives of Displacement and Belonging in Israel and the West Bank.”

For more information on MEI’s research, events, and student programs, visit belfercenter.org/MEI.

Newsletter | Spring 2019

Marie Besançon, affectionately known by her Sudanese team as “Doc,” signals V for victory for the team’s accomplishments in her last blog.

The Belfer Center fondly remembers Marie Besançon, a Center research fellow from 2002– 2008, most recently with the International Security Program (ISP). Besançon, who was killed in a car accident in late fall, was the founder and continuing director of Homes for Sudan, an organization focused on education for entrepreneurship and building superadobe earth homes. “Marie was a wonderful colleague,” said ISP Director Steven Miller, “and she was particularly admirable for combining her scholarly pursuits with serious efforts to improve the lives of people in Sudan who were trapped by conflict and poverty.”

See http://homesforsudan.blogspot.com/

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