Global Stocktake ahead at COP 28

Tthe 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, 30 November – 12 December , comes at an inopportune moment in the history of the temperature of the world. The 28th meeting of the conference of the parties, or ‘COP 28’, marks the conclusion of the first ‘Global Stocktake’ of how well the Paris Agreement on climate change is being implemented8 – at a time when the Paris Agreement’s key 1.5 degrees threshold looks significantly challenged.

In May, the World Meteorological Organization warned of a 98% likelihood the next five years will be the warmest on record, and a strong chance the world’s annual average near-surface temperature will spend a year above the key level of more than 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels.9 While that won’t mean permanently breaching the 1.5 degrees level specified in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warning over many years, it would mean breaching that level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency, the WMO said.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned in 2022 that the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) declared under the Paris Agreement – each participating nation’s plan to cut emissions to limit global heating – would not limit warming to 1.5 degrees even though many countries had strengthened their NDCs in 2020/2021.10 There was also a gap in the outcome suggested by NDCs and those suggested by the actual policies implemented.11 Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees was “beyond reach”, it said.12

New Zealand’s own NDC was last updated in October 2021 to set a target of 50 per cent reduction of net emissions below its gross 2005 level by 2030.13 However, the Climate Action Tracker (an independent scientific project that tracks government action against the Paris Agreement) rated New Zealand’s climate policies and action as “highly insufficient”14 indicating they were “not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5° by 2030.”

Parties must report transparently on their actions on climate change under the enhanced transparency framework established through the Paris Agreement,15 however, there are no hard enforcement mechanisms under the agreement. That means that parties who fail to achieve their NDC commitments will not have any direct consequences. That said, the impact of not meeting the NDCs will be borne by all. There is the likelihood of more extreme weather events, occurring more frequently, which will have its impact in more tangible ways such as impacts on agricultural productivity and damage to infrastructure. If New Zealand isn’t able to meet its NDC, this will also likely cause reputational damage which will affect New Zealand’s credibility in future negotiations.

COP 28 has its own challenges as a forum for critical assessment, attracting criticism from the outset for the decision to hold the conference in the major oil producing country of Abu Dhabi and to appoint oil company CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber to lead it. Looking past the controversy of the conference’s location and leadership, climate financing, loss and damage funding and food systems are among other key issues to watch for at the conference.16

Investment in climate efforts generally will be a particularly important focus considering the need for adaptation funding for high income countries, investment in the transition from nonrenewable to green energy for low- income countries and the reformation of international financial institutions to understand the value of investing in climate efforts generally. Advancing the loss and damage agreement for low-income countries is another focus, given the agreement to set up a transitional committee at COP 27, with an eye on how the fund will evolve from being transitional to operational. Additionally, COP 28 will provide an opportunity to see the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s first plan to reduce emissions from food and agriculture systems in an attempt to keep temperatures from increasing above 1.5 degrees.

Overall, there will be a lot to watch for as the international developments on climate action move into an operational rather than transitional stage of achieving the commitments countries have made.