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CAPITALWATCH VOL. 5 NO. 10
INSIDE Pension reform might affect current employees PAGE 3 ‘Lazy people shouldn’t be able to vote’ says legislator PAGE 4
OCTOBER 2012
Judge Simpson’s injunction extends ‘soft rollout’ of Voter ID law
PPP Survey says undecided voters like clean air standards PAGE 6 Candidates commit to not seeking another office while holding post PAGE 8 Rendell says Romney needs first-debate win PAGE 10 EDITORIALS: Payday loan legislation: a very bad idea We need coal; we need gas; we need common sense approach PAGE 12
Voters can be asked for a photo ID in the coming statewide election Nov. 6, but they can vote even if they don’t have one, Commonwealth Court Judge Robin Simpson ruled today. The state’s Voter ID law was partially enjoined by Simpson so that, essentially, the “soft rollout” of the law will be extended until after the Nov. 6 general election. “I will enjoin enforcement of those provisions of Act 18 which amend the provisional ballot procedures of the Election Code and cause disenfranchisement based on failure to present photo ID for in-person voting,” Simpson wrote in his opinion. “The injunction will have the effect of extending the express transition provisions of Act 18 through the general election,” he wrote. Simpson also commanded the state to give those seeking state photo ID access to the free Department of State ID even if they have not tried to get
other ID with more demanding requirements. The ruling is more sweeping than the idea Simpson floated during last week’s hearing when he suggested suspending only the photo ID proving requirement for those who cast provisional ballots. In his opinion, Simpson rejected a suggestion from state attorneys to require those without ID to sign an affirmation if they don’t have a photo ID and need to cast a provisional ballot. “Respondents [the commonwealth] suggest that a qualified elector be asked to produce proof of identification, but be allowed to cast a provisional ballot. This argument fails to acknowledge the General Assembly’s express intent that during the transition into full implementation of Act 18, an otherwise qualified elector need not cast a provisional ballot.” Simpson also said the new procedures rolled out last week by the Department of State and
PennDOT, to liberalize access to photo IDs for voting, would not “cure the deficiency in liberal access identified by the Supreme Court.” But he said the testimony from two state officials about the procedural changes “are extensive, surpassing predictions made in the earlier hearing.” Pennsylvania GOP chairman Rob Gleason said in a statement: “I am disappointed by today’s ruling to postpone the full implementation of a commonsense reform that helps protect the sanctity of our electoral process. “We shouldn’t have to wait for this commonsense reform to be enacted. With that being said, Voter ID is still Pennsylvania law, was found to be constitutional and we will work to encourage voters to bring their photo identification with them to the polls. “Poll after poll has shown that Pennsylvanians from both political parties overwhelmingly support Voter ID legisla-
tion because, despite the empty rhetoric to the contrary, this legislation is still about ensuring one person, one vote. Our Party remains committed to the citizens of the Commonwealth and we will do all that we can to ensure free and fair elections.” House Democratic Leader Frank Dermody said the injunction was “a victory for voting rights.” “The court order ensures that no citizen will be deprived of the constitutional right to vote as a result of the voter suppression law pushed through by Gov. Corbett and Republican legislators, at least not this year,” he said in a statement. The law is popular among voters in Pennsylvania, according to recent polling. A Quinnipiac University poll from last week showed 62 percent support the law while 35 percent do not. A Franklin and Marshall College poll showed 59 percent favor the law while 39 percent do not. CW
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Zogby says pension reforms might touch current employees BY PETER L. DECOURSEY, CAPITOLWIRE
Budget Secretary Charles Zogby, heading the team which is reviewing pension reform efforts for Gov. Tom Corbett, says those efforts “might touch current employees” in terms of reduced benefits. In an interview with Capitolwire, Zogby said: “A lot of the plans that have been proposed or put forward in the General Assembly, for instance, only deal with future employees. I think we’re looking beyond that and looking at [pension] reforms that might touch current employees as well.” Those reforms are meant to supplement Senate Bill 1540, which would put new state employees on a 401-K style plan, a concept for which Corbett voiced potential support as a candidate for governor. But the governor wants to go further than that, as he has said since at least 2010. But Senate GOP spokesman Erik Arneson said the administration will have to prove to them and eventually the courts that it is legal to reduce the future benefits of current state or school district employees.
And conservative pension analyst Rick Dreyfuss said no “budget savings” are likely since the state, even under the ramped-up schedule Corbett is following, mandated by law in 2010, is now only putting in about half of what it needs to fully fund its pension plan. So even further savings from current employees should result only in still-higher contributions to the state employees’ and teacher’s retirement plans, Dreyfuss contends. Why is this issue heating up now? Because Corbett will include it in his budget proposal, Zogby said in testimony before a pension reform hearing last week, to argue that other things can be funded more if pension reforms beyond the Senate bill are enacted. That will be the public part of this process. The private part is a continuing series of discussions within the governor’s office to see what can be done, legally and politically, about this issue as part of the budget talk. The fruits of their labor will be sown in the February budget proposal, and harvested, Corbett hopes, in June 2013.
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Corbett says these talks have budget implications, especially looking at another $400 million or more they could add to next year’s budget. In the first two Corbett budgets, their $600 million total has tallied with the state cut in basic education spending. Zogby explained: “To the extent we can deliver on [pension] reform, that is going to mean relief for not only the General Fund budget, but those savings will be shared by school districts across the state. Suffice it to say, the governor’s talked about it as the tapeworm that’s eating the budget. It’s very clear that pension funding, has been for the last couple of years, crowding out the rest of the General Fund.” That is an attempt to sell the assembly on a simple trade: if you cut pensions, you can afford to spend more on basic public education or other things you like. Even if the Legislature buys that argument, the administration has to show all sides it can negotiate the daunting legal maze to reducing the future benefits of current employees. Arneson wrote in an e-mail: “We understand the critical need to make changes to Pennsylvania’s pension system for government employees, which is why Senate Bill 1540 was introduced. We anticipate that it will be difficult to make the simple, easy-to-understand change of moving new employees to a defined contribution plan that SB 1540 envisions. “I don’t believe anyone disagrees that it’s impossible to retroactively change the accrued benefits of current employees.” So what can be done about the future year benefits of current employees? Corbett’s team is working on various ideas, and none yet have made it to the governor in what is expected to be a final menu option presented to him. Options include: • Changing the system for unvested employees, whose years of service have not yet qualified them for pension benefits, or reducing their annual rate of accrued benefit; • Doing the same for employees who have not met a seniority threshold. Under this plan, benefits would be cut for those whose age or years of combined service was not at some number yet to be set, such as 70, or perhaps 65. Proposing cuts to folks in those groups, or perhaps at even lower seniority levels, is an invitation to hemorrhage key senior staff, the administration believes. • Ending the system where retirees can claim a lump-sum payout and a pension upon retirement. This has been done for future employees already in the 2010 law. CW
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OCTOBER 2012 CAPITAL WATCH
Daley introduces bill to repeal changes to Small Games of Chance law State Representative Daryl Metcalfe, R-Butler, responding to an outcry from fire departments and social and veterans’ organizations in his district, has introduced legislation to repeal changes to Pennsylvania’s Small Games of Chance law that were enacted earlier this year. “Since I circulated a memo explaining my intentions to introduce this legislation, I’ve heard from individuals on both sides of the debate. On one side, our local departments and clubs continue to say that the changes will spell financial problems that possibly could lead to closing their doors,” Daley said. “On the other side of the coin, I’m being told that without these changes,
Pennsylvania clubs would simply ignore reporting requirements and that higher prize limits make these changes worth it for the clubs. Even the side that supports maintaining the new law, however, say changes need to be made. “As I said when I announced that I would work toward repealing this law, there are quite a few issues with the language, no matter which side of the debate you find yourself on. And, given the abbreviated legislative session ahead of us through November, I doubt there is enough time to bring in all of the impacted stakeholders to fix the issues. The fact that the new law needs to be fixed is a good indicator that not
everyone was at the table when the language was drafted. “Just this week, the owner of a Pennsylvania company that produces small games of chance stopped by my office to talk about his suggestion for remedying the law. Over the course of our conversation, he told me that one of the largest Legions in the state likely will not survive under the new law. That should be a real eye opener for everyone.” Daley’s bill (H.B. 2649) will repeal all of the changes made to the Small Games of Chance Act by House Bill 169. According to Daley, he is not alone in hearing from constituents on the issue. “I’ve heard from many of my colleagues
from both sides of the aisle, who are getting calls from their fire departments, social clubs and veterans’ organizations in opposition to the language. Just after I circulated my memo, a colleague on the other side of the aisle circulated something similar. Still other members are trying to address concerns one issue at a time. “Whatever legislation on this issue moves this fall will at least open debate, which needs to happen in Harrisburg. Our communities rely on these organizations and clubs for a variety of needs and programs. Our intent with passing the new law was not to do harm, but to help these organizations. If the new law isn’t going to work, then let’s fix it now.” CW
Rep. Metcalfe says ‘lazy’ people shouldn’t be able to vote State Representative Daryl Metcalfe (R-), co-sponsor of Pennsylvania’s Voter ID law, told Pennsylvanians what he really thinks of them--in explicit detail on Sept. 18.
During an interview with KDKA Radio, Metcalfe claimed that the new Voter ID law would only stop “lazy” people from voting, referring to the kinds of people Mitt
Romney was talking about in the leaked “47 percent” video from a private fundraiser. When asked about the voter ID law’s disenfranchisement of the 750,000 Daryl Metcalfe
Pennsylvanians who cannot get IDs, Metcalfe cited Romney’s offhand dismissal of the 47 percent of the country who will never “take personal responsibility and care for their lives” as proof that those people don’t deserve the right to vote. Transcript of Metcalf ’s interview is as follows: HOST: Are you absolutely convinced… that the methods to implement this law are effective and will in fact make sure no legitimate voter will be disenfranchised? METCALFE: I don’t believe any legitimate voter that actually wants to exercise that right and takes on the according responsibility that goes with that right to secure their photo ID will be disenfranchised. As Mitt Romney said, 47 percent of the people that are living off the public dole, living off their neighbors’ hard work, and we have a lot of people out there that are too lazy to get up and get out there and get the ID they need. If individuals are too lazy, the state can’t fix that. Though Romney has claimed his remark was simply “inelegant,” the message seemed to hit home with Metcalfe. Metcalfe’s colleague, Turzai, R-Allegheny, admitted earlier this year that Pennsylvania’s voter ID law would “allow Governor Romney to win.” Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s DMVs and Social Security offices have been overrun with so-called “lazy” people navigating a maze of bureaucracy in order to get the ID that will allow them to cast their vote. CW
NEWS 5 5 NEWS
OCTOBER 2012 CAPITAL WATCH
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CW: When was PMA formed and what services does it provide?
Frederick W. Anton
President & CEO Pennsylvania Manufacturers Association Frederick W. Anton III is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers’ Association (PMA), a statewide business organization representing the interests of manufacturers in Pennsylvania's public policy process since 1909. Since joining PMA in 1962, Mr. Anton has continued the association’s long tradition of political action, which was begun by its founder, U.S. Senator Joseph Grundy. Beginning in 1981, Mr. Anton has been the host for a bipartisan seminar and luncheon at the Metropolitan Club in New York City on the Saturday of The Pennsylvania Society’s annual dinner. Pennsylvania governors, U.S. senators, and other leading political figures from both major parties attend the event each year. In recent years, U.S. Senators Arlen Specter and Rick Santorum appointed Mr. Anton as Chairman of the Federal Judicial Nominating Commission of Pennsylvania. A native of Philadelphia, Mr. Anton has lived in southeastern Pennsylvania all his life. He is a graduate of Haverford High School, Villanova University, and the Villanova School of Law, and is a veteran of the United States Marine Corps.
FWA: PMA was formed in 1909 by United States Senator Joseph Grundy as an association. The organization now is different in many respects than it ever has been throughout the organizations’ history. I have been the President and Chairman of PMA since 1975. But, a dramatic change occurred in 2004. From 1915 until 2004, PMA was affiliated with an insurance company that wrote workers’ compensation and other types of causality insurance claims. In 2004 I retired as Chairman of the insurance company and board, staff, and leadership of the association and the insurance company was separated and effectively, there is no further affiliation. Today, PMA is an advocacy association that advocates pro-manufacturing and pro-business policies. Additionally, PMA also supports and contributes significant funds to several organizations that have compatible missions to PMA. This began with Pennsylvanians for Right to Work and the Commonwealth Foundation. Through these groups we worked to establish a strong conservative movement in Pennsylvania. Another initiative that furthered this movement was the formation of the Pennsylvania Leadership Council which hosts the annual Pennsylvania Leadership Conference. The President of this group is Lowman Henry who also heads the Lincoln Institute. Another major initiative and mission of PMA is creating education alternatives to public school, particularly charter schools and public financing for alternatives. This initiative has been spearheaded by the REACH Alliance which is a group I am a board member of. Many of these organizations utilize PMA’s headquarters that were built in 1988, just steps from the Capitol building. CW: What are your short-term and long-term goals for PMA? FWA: Our short term and long term goals have significantly shifted since 2004. When PMA was affiliated with the insurance company, we had to weigh the legislative and bureaucratic interests of the insurance company. We had to be careful to not antagonize regulators or members of state government so they would not take any hostile actions against the insurance company. So, that is a very different posture today than it was prior to 2004. One paramount goal for moving forward is to continue to nurture alliances with
Pennsylvania’s business groups. We value our relationships with the PA Business Council, the PA Chamber of Business and Industry, and the PA Chapter of NFIB. Through our Executive Director, David N. Taylor, we have had a much more productive relationship with these organizations to enact pro-business reforms. The leaders of all these organizations work together better than they have in my history with PMA. While we tend to advocate with a focus on manufacturing production, we often work with the aforementioned organizations to increase our overall economic competitiveness. We have three fundamental areas of advocacy. The first and most important is pro-manufacturing/pro-business. The second, of less importance than our economic policy advocacy, is traditional social policy. Third, we believe that we must enact school choice. CW: How does Pennsylvania stack-up against other states as a place for manufacturers to do business? FWA: Poorly. Pennsylvania ranks somewhere between 40th and 50th, but there is nothing I have read or seen in the past few years that dramatically cites Pennsylvania as growing. During the Shapp administration, Pennsylvania was the site of the first location of a plant for a foreign automobile maker - Volkswagen. Since then, numerous plants have appeared in other states – most notably Tennessee and Alabama; but none in Pennsylvania. If I were to draw one line of demarcation that makes Pennsylvania fall behind these states it’s right-to-work. Referencing the location of these manufacturing plants will indicate where the best states are to do business. We must use the discovery and development of our natural gas to entice business to locate in Pennsylvania. Manufacturing will benefit from natural gas production, but we must make Pennsylvania more competitive economically to gain the benefits. CW: What public policy changes are you advocating to make Pennsylvania more competitive for manufacturers? FWA: PMA continues to fight for our members in the effort to build a more competitive and prosperous Pennsylvania. We are committed to assisting
manufacturers meet the growing challenges of a global economy by lowering business taxes, reforming our judicial system to end lawsuit abuse, establishing a more highly skilled workforce, and addressing onerous regulatory and tax burdens. To this end, we will fight for policies and programs that will grow manufacturing here in the commonwealth. We are also in favor of charter school and vouchers or scholarships for students to escape failing public schools. We did see some key victories in the past legislative session by: enacting unemployment compensation reform; continuing to phase out the capital stock and franchise tax; moving to the single sales factor; passing joint and several legal reform; and by enacting the Governor’s Manufacturing Tax Credit to incentivize Shell to locate their petrochemical plant in Pennsylvania. However, there is still much more to do to make Pennsylvania more competitive. CW: What are your expectations/ hopes for election 2012? FWA: My hopes are that Romney will be elected President. In other major elections in Pennsylvania, we must elect Republicans - particularly, in the Attorney General’s race. The Attorney General’s race is a bellwether for the future of the Republican Party in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. The other situation that requires close evaluation is the Congressional races. Since Pennsylvania has been losing population, we are down from a historical high of 36 to 18 seats. In statewide elections, there are more registered Democrats; but in 12 of the Congressional districts there is a Republican majority. The major question of this election is, what will be the results in these districts? The loss of any incumbent Republicans in the U.S. House may threaten the majority. It is imperative that Republicans hold the majority in at least one chamber of Congress.
6 NEWS
OCTOBER 2012 CAPITAL WATCH
PPP Survey says undecided voters favor clean air standards, policies Undecided voters in Pennsylvania decisively favor candidates for president and Congress who support clean air and clean energy policies over candidates who don’t, a new poll shows. The Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey conducted for the NRDC Action Fund of likely voters in Pennsylvania finds undecided voters side with President Barack Obama’s position as a candidate who “supports EPA standards to reduce dangerous carbon pollution” over the position of Republican challenger Mitt Romney, presented as a candidate who “says that these limits would be bad for business and EPA should not limit carbon pollution,” by a wide margin (55 percent versus 26 percent). Among all likely voters in Pennsylvania, the margin on the same question is still wide, at 64 percent to 26 percent. The survey also finds that undecided voters favor congressional candidates who, like Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, support “standards to reduce toxic mercury pollution from power plants” over those who oppose them (59 percent versus 21 percent.) Among all likely voters in Pennsylvania, the margin on the same question is 64 percent to 23 percent. Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy
Polling, said: “Mitt Romney is running behind in Pennsylvania and he’ll need to win over most of the remaining undecided voters to win this critical state. But his stances on environment and energy issues could hurt his ability to do that – Pennsylvania voters who are still making up their minds decisively favor candidates who support standards to reduce carbon pollution and mercury pollution. Romney’s views are at odds with the very centrist voters he needs. And, clearly Obama’s and Senator Casey’s shared views on clean air and energy can only help them with these undecided voters.” Similar support among Pennsylvania voters for clean air and clean energy are seen across the board on such issues as curbing tax breaks for oil and gas companies, increasing federal fuel efficiency standards for vehicles, reducing toxic mercury pollution, and boosting incentives for wind and solar energy according to the NRDC Action Fund survey. NRDC Action Fund director Heather Taylor-Miesle said: “These results clearly show that undecided and likely Pennsylvania voters strongly prefer the positions that Senator Casey has
taken when it comes to protecting our health from air pollution and fracking. His opponent Tom Smith seems to be inclined to let polluters off the hook, judging from his website’s statement of opposition to mercury pollution cleanup and safety standards on fracking.” The PPP survey in Pennsylvania was conducted Sept.17-18, among 2,051 likely voters (with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percent), including an oversample of 294 undecided voters (with a margin of error of +/-5.7 percent). The survey found 52 percent of Pennsylvania voters favoring Obama, 40 percent favoring Mitt Romney and 8 percent undecided.
• By a margin of 60 percent to 24 percent, undecided voters support a presidential candidate who favors higher fuel efficiency standards for vehicles. Among likely voters, the margin is 66 percent to 25 percent in support of such a presidential candidate.
Among the key findings regarding the Presidential candidates’ positions:
Among the key findings regarding positions held by candidates for Congress:
MERCURY POLLUTION FROM POWER PLANTS: • By a margin of 63 percent to 18 percent, undecided voters support a presidential candidate who backs reducing toxic mercury pollution from power plants. Among likely voters, the margin is 64 percent to 22 percent in support of such a presidential candidate. FUEL EFFICIENCY STANDARDS:
CARBON POLLUTION FROM POWER PLANTS: • By a margin of 57 percent to 25 percent, undecided voters support Congressional candidates who back reducing dangerous carbon pollution from power plants. Among likely voters, the margin is 63 percent to 26 percent in support of such Congressional candidates.
CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENTS: • By a margin of 51 percent to 27 percent, undecided voters support a presidential candidate who backs increased incentives for wind power. Among likely voters, the margin is 64 percent to 28 percent in support of such a presidential candidate.
CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENTS: • By a margin of 50 percent to 30 percent, undecided voters support Congressional candidates who back increased incentives for wind power. Among likely voters, the margin is 61 percent to 29 percent in support of such Congressional candidates. The survey also tested voter views on the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) role and on hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking.” US EPA ROLE • By a margin of 75 percent to 13 percent, undecided voters agree that the EPA should protect “the air we breathe and water we drink” with “safeguards that hold corporate polluters accountable.” Among likely voters, the margin is 81 percent to 13 percent in favor of EPA’s role.
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FRACKING • By a margin of 74 percent to 14 percent, undecided voters support disclosure of chemicals used in fracking. Among likely voters the margin is 78 percent to 14 percent in favor of disclosure. Full survey findings and detailed methodology are online at www. nrdcactionfund.org/undecidedvoters. The NRDC Action Fund’s mission is to achieve the passage of legislation that jump-starts the clean energy economy, reduces pollution, and sustains vibrant communities for all Americans. The NRDC Action Fund is an affiliated but separate organization from the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). CW
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OCTOBER 2012 CAPITAL WATCH
Candidates commit to not seeking another office while holding the post of auditor general BY KEVIN ZWICK, CAPITOLWIRE
The three candidates running for state auditor general have committed to not seeking another office as long as they are in the post, which has produced a U.S. Senator and gubernatorial candidates. Both father and son Bob Casey’s won higher office - the governorship and a U.S. Senate seat, respectively - after holding the post of auditor general, and Republican and Democratic auditors general in the past have tried to use the office as a springboard to the governorship. But Democrat Eugene De Pasquale, who was named as a possible contender against Gov. Tom Corbett in 2016, Republican John Maher and Libertarian Betsy Summers, said they would not seek another office while holding the two-term-limited office. All three are vying to replace Auditor General Jack Wagner, whose second term expires in January. The candidates debated a range of issues concerning the office dubbed “the state’s fiscal watchdog” at the Widener
University School of Law. The debate was sponsored by the Pennsylvania Legislative Correspondents Association and the Pennsylvania Cable Network. Maher, of Allegheny County, pivoted to his private sector experience as a certified public accountant throughout much of the debate.
“They aren’t and can’t be independent watchdogs,” Summer said of Maher and DePasquale, both state representatives currently seeking re-election to their seats in the state House. Both said they were urged by their constituents to run for both the state House and the auditor general post.
“They aren’t and can’t be independent watchdogs,” Summer said of Maher and DePasquale… “I’m an auditor. I’m running for auditor general. My opponents are nice folks, they mean well,” he said, “but I believe Pennsylvania deserves an auditor for auditor general.” DePasquale touted his reform-minded actions as a lawmaker, being the first to post his expenses online and buying his district office furniture at a yard sale, he said. Summers slammed both major party candidates saying they can’t be independent.
Both Maher and DePasquale said party loyalty wouldn’t prevent them from looking with a critical eye at the executive branch. All three candidates said they would run an aggressive auditor general office and use the power of the office to audit state government agencies as they saw fit. Maher, acknowledged that past auditors Wagner, Casey, and Barbara Hafer weren’t certified public accountants, said he would like to apply
his private sector experience to how the office operates. The debate got a bit personal, as both Maher and DePasquale were put on the defensive regarding past legislative scandals. Summer questioned Maher about his vote for the legislative pay raise in 2005. “I’ve got 10 years of my expense reports on the web,” he said. “I have paid for expenses out of my own pocket. I have refused the pay raise and voted to repeal it.” Summer responded later that Maher voted to repeal the pay raise only after voter outrage. Maher later said he took a pay cut when he gave up his private sector CPA practice to run for legislative office in the first place. DePasquale was also questioned about his campaign employing a consultant who was a former Bonusgate defendant. DePasquale, who said his father, an elected official, served time in prison, believes in second chances for those who have paid their debt. CW
Voter ID author calls ruling a ‘judicial activist decision’ A state lawmaker says a Commonwealth Court judge’s ruling on Voter ID was “skewed in favor of the lazy.” Rep. Daryl Metcalfe, R-Butler, author of the state’s controversial Voter ID law, criticized Commonwealth Court Judge Robert “Robin” Simpson’s ruling as a “judicial activist decision.” “…Rather than making a ruling based on the constitution and the law, this judicial activist decision is skewed in favor of the lazy who refuse to exercise the necessary work ethic to meet the commonsense requirements to obtain an acceptable photo ID,” said Metcalfe, who chairs the House State Government Committee. Democrats, who charged the law was aimed at suppressing votes among their supporters for the 2012 presidential election, praised the ruling from Simpson, a Republican. Pennsylvania GOP chairman Rob Gleason said he was “disappointed” by Simpson’s ruling, saying it will postpone “a commonsense reform.” He also said the GOP will continue to encourage voters to bring ID to the polls. “Why should they bring their ID if they don’t need their ID? You don’t need ID. That should be the message for the election,” said Sen. Daylin Leach, D-Montgomery, who chairs the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee. “I think the state, Democrats and Republicans, should all get on board.” CW
Texas
South Carolina South Carolina
Colorado
OCTOBER 2012 CAPITAL WATCH
1,490
3
1,451 1,451
Colorado
1,271
Kentucky
1,189
10 10 11
1,271
Kentucky
1,189
7
Alabama
1,059
4
Georgia
Alabama
1,059 658
2
New Mexico
633
3
Illinois
594
6
Oklahoma Minnesota
473 393
Georgia
New Mexico
658 633
11 7
NEWS 9
4 2 3
Analysis shows state stands to lose big time under EPA regs Illinois Oklahoma
Results of a new analysis show that more than 200 coal-based electric generating units are scheduled to be shut down due, at least in part, to regulations issued by the Environmental Protection Agency. The new analysis released by the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity shows the 204 closing coal units are spread across 25 states and represent 31,000 megawatts of electric generating capacity. This is equivalent to shutting down the entire electricity supply of Ohio. So far, the total number of retirements nationwide is triple the amount of retirements that the EPA had predicted would be caused by its regulations. “This is further evidence that EPA is waging a war on coal, and a war on
594 473
1 6
6 1
Minnesota 393 Iowa 374 17 6 Announced retirements of coal units as of September 2012 due to EPA regulations2 Iowa 374 Massachusetts 330 3 17 Key battleground states are highlighted in red3 New Jersey 299 2 3 Massachusetts 330 NewWisconsin Jersey
Utah Wisconsin
State
Michigan Utah
Maryland Ohio Michigan Wyoming Pennsylvania Maryland
South Dakota
WestWyoming Virginia SouthVirginia Dakota
States North25 Carolina Indiana
25 States
Texas
287 299 189 MW Retiring or 287 Converting 121 189 110 6,623 121 57 3,588 110
4 2 2 4Retiring or # of Units Converting 1 2 2 30 1 4
22 2 18 4
25
1
31,111 MW 2,286
204 units 17
2,943 57 2,518 25 2,150
31,111 MW 1,490
16 1 12
204 units 3
South Carolina Most of the coal units listed in the table are 1,451 retiring; a few are converting to either 10 biomass or natural gas. Colorado 1,271 11 3 These are states that, according to CNN’s electoral map on September 14, are toss-up, leaning Romney Most the coal units listed in the table are 1,189 retiring; a few are converting to either or of leaning Obama. Kentucky 7 biomass or natural 2
2
gas. Alabama 1,059 4 3 These are states that, according to CNN’s electoral map on September 14, are toss-up, leaning Romney Georgia 658 2 or leaning Obama.
New Mexico
633
3
Illinois
594
6
Oklahoma
473
1
Minnesota
393
affordable electricity prices and jobs. EPA continues to ignore the damage that its new regulations are causing to the U.S. economy and to states that depend on coal for jobs and affordable electricity,” said Mike Duncan, president and CEO of ACCCE. According to the analysis, the states with the most coal-electric generating capacity being prematurely closed are Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. These five states combined have 103 coal units scheduled to shutter, representing almost 18,000 megawatts. Other hard hit states include Indiana, Colorado and Iowa. CW
Sen. Leach reacts to stay of execution ruling in murder case State Sen. Daylin Leach, D-Montgomery/ Delaware, has issued a statement reacting to a Common Pleas Court’s decision to stay the execution of a convicted Philadelphia man. That man, Terrance Williams, was found guilty in a 1986 murder case and sentenced to death. Citing withheld evidence that had “undermined confidence in the fairness of Williams’ 1986 death sentence,” Judge M. Teresa Sarmina ruled to uphold the guilty verdict but suspend the death penalty sentence. Leach, a member of a task force studying Pennsylvania’s capital punishment system, released the following statement regarding the ruling: “I am aware that Judge Sarmina ruled to stay the execution in this particular case. A bipartisan capital punishment task force and advisory committee are currently studying the effectiveness and value of capital punishment in Pennsylvania. Now that the immediacy of a pending execution is not looming over the process, I would once again urge the governor to impose a temporary moratorium on all executions until the task force can complete its work and issue its findings.” Earlier this month, Leach and other members of the task force sent a letter to Gov. Corbett requesting the aforementioned moratorium. The task force and advisory committee are required under Senate Resolution 6 to issue a report by December 2013. In that letter, Leach stated: “While we are aware of cases with pending execution warrants, we do not write specifically on behalf of or in reference to any individual currently sentenced to death in Pennsylvania. We are also not requesting an indefinite moratorium on the death penalty. However, we do believe that carrying out an execution before our work is completed over the next fifteen months would greatly undermine the
legislative intent of Senate Resolution 6374 – Iowa a comprehensive study of the effectiveness Massachusetts 330 of capital punishment in Pennsylvania, as New Jersey 299 it pertains to cost, fairness, proportionality, Wisconsin 287 impact, and many other factors.” 189 The task force isUtah comprised of four Michigan 121 appointed senators and the advisory committee includes 30 members who Maryland 110 have expertise Wyoming in the state’s criminal 57 South Dakota
25
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justice system. To complete the study, 17 the task force and advisory committee 3 will receive assistance from the Justice 2 Center for Research at Penn State, the 4 Pennsylvania Interbranch Commission on Gender, Racial and2 Ethnic Fairness 1 and the Pennsylvania Joint State Government Commission. 2 The study, currently4 in progress, will
address issues that could impact the effectiveness of the capital punishment system including cost, bias and unfairness, proportionality of crime to sentence, impact on and services for family members, mental illness and mental retardation, fairness of juries, the quality of counsel provided to capital defendants, alternatives, public opinion and other concerns. CW
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10
OCTOBER 2012 CAPITAL WATCH
NEWS
Rendell says Romney needs first-debate win
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Former Gov. Ed Rendell said the presidential election could come down to how well both candidates perform in the debates, something he said gives Republican contender Mitt Romney the advantage. “Romney was a good strong debater. He’s disciplined. He follows suggestions. He can compartmentalize things in 90-120-second answers. It’s a good format for him. Then of course he really gets the benefit of looking and sounding presidential,” Rendell said during an appearance at the Pennsylvania Press Club luncheon September 24. “President Obama is obviously one of the great public orators of our lifetime, (but) is not quite as good at debates,” said Rendell, now an MSNBC political commentator who touts Obama. “President Obama has a tougher time getting his thoughts into those 90 or 120 second bites. So I think there’s a chance Gov. Romney will do well, maybe even have a game-changer and make this a tight race down the road.” The first debate is slated for Oct. 3 at the University of Denver. If the first debate is a Romney loss or draw, his campaign could be abandoned like Kansas Sen. Bob Dole’s presidential campaign was in 1996, when President Bill Clinton widened his lead after the first debate, Rendell said. “I think there’s a chance Gov. Romney will do well, maybe even have a gamechanger and make this a tight race down the road. If he doesn’t, it will snowball rapidly, because the Republican powersthat-be will give up the ship,” he said. “…They will abandon the presidential candidate and move to try to hold the House and regain the Senate.” Rendell also pointed to the first debate between Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale in 1984, as well as between John Kerry and George W. Bush in 2004. In both instances, the Democratic challengers closed the gap after the first debate by out-performing the incumbents, but the advantages gained didn’t last in each case. Last week, Republican strategist Karl Rove, the architect of President George W. Bush’s presidential elections, placed Pennsylvania in the “safe Obama” column. But recently Rove’s analysis listed Pennsylvania “lean Obama.” Rendell said it’s “highly unlikely” Obama will enjoy the double-digit lead he had in 2008, and implored Democrats to not be overconfident in high poll numbers. “Pennsylvania candidates would hope this race stays a little tighter. We’ve gotta worry about turnout,” he noted. CW
OPINION 11
OCTOBER 2012 CAPITAL WATCH
Welcome to the G-Zero World BY JACQUELINE G. GOODWIN, ED.D.
In Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World, Ian Bremmer, president of the political-risk consultancy firm Eurasia Group, maps the present and future of G-Zero—a “world order in which no single country or durable alliance of countries can meet the challenges of global leadership.” A self-proclaimed non-partisan presence in the world of commentary, Bremmer, who was in Harrisburg Sept. 20 to address Pennsylvania’s business community (a dinner event made possible by Derek C. Hathaway, retired Chairman and CEO of Harsco Corporation) about a G-Zero world, writes, “For the first time in seven decades, we live in a world without global leadership.” So welcome to the G-Zero era, a world of every nation for itself, one in which Bremmer believes the United States will remain the sole superpower for the foreseeable future, but war-weary, under-employed, debt-plagued voters will reject an activist foreign policy. For the first time in seven decades, there is no single power or alliance of powers ready to take on the challenges of global leadership Bremmer argues. “A generation ago, the United States, Europe, and Japan were the world’s powerhouses, the free-market democracies that propelled the global economy forward. Today, they struggle just to find their footing.” Bremmer believes that Europeans won’t fill the global leadership vacuum because they’re busy fighting over how best to save the Eurozone. He also thinks China and other emerging powers won’t be much help. “They face too many complex challenges at home to accept new risks and burdens abroad. This leadership void won’t last forever, but the problem won’t be solved this year or next,” he states. Yet, Bremmer writes that some countries are better positioned than others to prosper in this decentralized global order. “Options, the ability to ‘pivot’ among multiple political and commercial partners, can ensure that a country is blessed with resilience as well as growth. In an increasingly crisis-prone world, resilience will be a crucial advantage,” he adds. “We’re living in a crisis-prone moment. In just the past four years, the United States has endured a financial crisis and the deepest recession in 75 years. Europe still faces a fundamental threat to the single currency and to the broader
Pay Less with Ian Bremmer
European idea. Upheaval continues in North Africa and the Middle East. In a world in transition and turmoil, it helps to have as many partners as possible. That’s the power of the pivot,” he writes. Bremmer is betting on countries and corporations that maintain the widest range of potential allies, including “pivot states”—Turkey, Mongolia, Brazil, and so on—that have maintained relations with a range of big powers. Losers, we’re told, will be those who depend too heavily on American protection—so long, Japan and Taiwan!—and “shadow states,” such as Mexico and Ukraine, “which cling, suckerfish-like, to the fortunes of larger neighbors.” “Winners accept the world as it is,” he writes, and predicts that “banks, hedge funds, and private equity funds will shift their operations toward emerging-market states to avoid global and Western regulatory reforms.” If China’s new dominance in Africa arouses protests, there is “no reason why Western-based companies can’t exploit these vulnerabilities and compete more effectively with Chinese companies.” In a G-Zero world, he concludes, “it is economic muscle, not military might, that determines the international balance of power.” But as he describes a “world without leaders,” Bremmer’s last chapter pays homage to America’s advantages—mainly, military might and democratic, entrepreneurial values—but his more persuasive point is simply that power is relative: “if the world descends into a barroom brawl, the United States will still be the largest, strongest drunk in the joint.” An interesting read, Every Nation for Itself offers essential insights for anyone attempting to navigate the new global playing field. CW
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12 OPINION
OCTOBER 2012 CAPITAL WATCH
Editorial
Payday loan legislation: a very bad idea Need a quick $500? How about $1,000? Bad credit? No credit? No problem. As fast as you can say, “Jack Rabbit,” you will be approved if you go to a payday loan company. The only catch: If some state legislators have their way, you’ll be charged an extremely high annual interest which must be repaid in full within a few weeks. Up to now, Pennsylvania has had the good sense to keep payday loan companies out. However, should House Bill 2191 pass, it will legalize high-cost loans at more than 300 percent annual interest that will be available all over the state and on the Internet . Supporters say the loans help people deal with unanticipated expenses when they don’t have access to traditional forms of credit; critics say the easy-toobtain loans push people with financial problems into deeper holes. The stats bear it out, as evidenced in a recent study by the Pew Charitable Trust. The study found that most people use the loans not for an extravagance, but for “rent, utilities and other basic life expenses.” Typically, people can’t fully repay the
loans and must renew them in some form, further falling victim to the cycle. According to Pew, payday loan borrowers nationally “spend $7.4 billion a year at 20,000 storefront lenders and websites.” It’s big bucks for the lenders. Bad news for the borrowers. But proponents of the Pennsylvania law say they would add protections for those already making loans with out-ofstate lenders. Under the legislation, a two-week loan of $300 would cost $42.50 with fees and charges, or the equivalent of 369 percent annual interest. The loan can’t exceed $1,000 or 25 percent of a borrower’s gross monthly income, and loans can’t be directly rolled over, according to the bill. The lender would have to set up an extended repayment schedule. Still, the downside is obvious. Those who are living from paycheck to paycheck may not be able to repay the loan and have enough left over to cover their expenses in the short term. Unfortunately, grim statistics also show that it once people resort to the first payday loan it becomes harder and harder for those borrowers to
break the cycle. As a result, they’re more likely to take out another payday loan soon after paying off the first one. In fact, in states where payday loans are legal, the average payday loan customer takes out more than seven a year. As the Keystone Research Center explains in a new policy brief, Bankrupt by Design: Payday Lenders Target Pennsylvania Working Families: Research and experience in other states shows that payday loans with triple-digit APRs and quick due dates lead to the accumulation of long-term debt for working families, rather than serving as timely financial aid, as the industry often claims.
Many borrowers cannot afford to pay back the principal, let alone the principal plus high interest and fees, two weeks or less after borrowing. When borrowers do pay back the loan, they often need an additional loan to meet their already established bills and obligations. The structure of the payday product itself exploits the already stretched budgets of low- and moderate-income families by luring them into a debt trap. We think HB 2191 is a very bad idea because it traps mostly poorly paid working people and seniors into a cycle of poverty. HB 2191 would do more harm to Pennsylvania than good. CW
Editorial
We need coal; we need gas; we need common sense approach Whether you want to brand it as the outcome of an outright “war on coal” or consider it simply “collateral damage” in the on-going struggle to reduce air pollution, it’s clear that coal-fired electric generation in Pennsylvania is on the decline with likely negative cost consequences for in-state power consumers. As of September this year, power companies have announced the planned retirement of an unprecedented 22 coal-fired turbine units which account for more than 3,500 megawatts of generating capacity in Pennsylvania. By and large, these are among the oldest generating stations in the state with facilities that would be too costly to bring into compliance with newer and stricter air quality regulations. On the plus side, air quality should improve marginally if the power provided by these plants is replaced by more efficient and less polluting gasfired units or electricity “wheeled in”
from power plants in other states. On the downside, power from these older plants was less costly to produce, coming from facilities where the capital investment was amortized years ago. Also on the downside, the switch away from these old plants means less demand for Pennsylvania-mined coal – and fewer jobs in this legacy industry. It’s not clear at this point whether the loss of 3,500 megawatts of generating capacity will put undue strain on the PJM power grid which interconnects electric consumers in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware. What is clearer is that in a competitive market like electric generation, reduced capacity puts upward pressure on pricing for both residential and commercial consumers. We’d like to believe that President Obama means it when he talks about an “all of the above” national energy strategy – meaning that all sources of
energy should be supported an encouraged including what the President likes to call “clean coal technology.” We’d feel better about it, though, if we saw substance behind the rhetoric. Yes, pollution needs to be mitigated. But it can’t happen overnight and, in this tight economy, the kinds of investments needed to clean up old power plant technology needs some kind of subsidy or forbearance. And energy should be supported and encouraged. Clearly, natural gas development – on balance – has been a boon to Pennsylvania. But it should not come at the expense of decimating the value and utility of our coal resources. Over the past three decades, enhanced technologies have helped entrepreneurs reduce old mountains of waste coal into usable power plant fuel. A huge dent has been made into unsightly culm banks and waste coal piles. But much more needs to be done.
We cannot, though, engineer and invest our way to a more beautiful countryside without a long-term market for the product from these reclamation projects. It’s our hope that once the General Election is behind us that thoughtful leaders in both political parties – at both the state and national level – will turn their attention to structuring a rational and balanced energy policy which enables the private sector to continue long-established clean up efforts in the coal regions while encouraging the implementation of new technologies to reduce both air and water pollution – and conserve precious water resources. This would apply to both coal and natural gas. It would also include rational development of new wind energy and purification and recycling of acid mine drainage to reduce pressures on existing surface water impoundments to provide fracking fluids to the natural gas industry. CW
13
OCTOBER 2012 CAPITAL WATCH
OPINION
If re-elected, Obama should end FCC threat to restrict TV news, press President Obama spent much of his recent ‘address to the United Nations General Assembly discussing free speech in an era of global instant communication. “I know that not all countries in this body share this particular understanding of the protection of free speech,” he said. Meanwhile, under his administration the FCC is holding a plan for a new balance, diversity and localism rule that would enable the U.S. government to suppress television news and restrict speech. The new rule is similar to the old Fairness Doctrine, which the FCC and courts revoked in 1987 when they found it was against the public interest. FCC investigations had deterred and suppressed television news, restricted speech, and prevented criticism of incumbent administrations. As my book reveals, the new localism rule would have similar results or worse. One new member of the FCC staff who helped draft the localism rule has written that freedom of speech and press is not his “objective,” and that free speech “is warped to protect global corporations and block rules that would promote democratic governance.” He also concludes the new localism rule could be used to take away licenses in place of the “misnamed Fairness Doctrine.” Another wrote that television is a “powerful source of homogenization and pabulum,” and recommended using burdensome FCC regulations to “hasten the demise of broadcasting” (later reworded.) That writer applauded a rule which would make broadcasting local events more difficult so “local viewers are less likely to watch the local broadcasters.” A special report recommended in June 2011 that the localism proceeding be ended because of its destructive burdens. Over opposition from other commissioners, the FCC chairman appointed by President Obama continued it and, after the November election, the FCC could move to adopt it. The Chief of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, a fellow law professor of President Obama, has long urged that the government should take control of news to achieve its political and social purposes. Another former law professor, since appointed by President Obama to the Supreme Court, wrote an article also urging the government to manage news, saying this would be constitutional if news coverage were not “ideal” at a particular time, and government was changing news to that end. The great historian Gordon S. Wood writes, “Remember that the United States has always been to ourselves and to the world primarily an idea.” Ending this country’s free press and free speech traditions would certainly destroy that idea. Corydon Dunham is a former TV network executive and general counsel, and author of Government Control of News. CW
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14 OPINION
OCTOBER 2012 CAPITAL WATCH
Debt limit authorization on fast-track, but RACP reform bill faces uphill climb BY PETER L. DECOURSEY, CAPITOLWIRE
When a bill to hike the state’s overall debt cap stalled in the summer, House Majority Leader Mike Turzai, R-Allegheny, said it would not move until his RACP reform bill moved in the Senate. Senate President Pro Tem Joe Scarnati, R-Jefferson, said the RACP bill would not move and if Turzai therefore would not move a debt cap bill, so be it. He said RACP, the state’s economic development loan program, was a vital tool to create and sustain jobs, and that Turzai’s bill would remove important tools policymakers may need to use to respond to statewide or regional economic issues. Now the battle continues along those same lines. Turzai is hopeful negotiations among the leaders and Gov. Tom Corbett, who has generally backed Turzai on this issue, will be fruitful, said Turzai’s spokesman, Steve Miskin. Turzai and Miskin declined further com-
ment despite repeated requests. Scarnati also is discussing a compromise that will allow both bills to move, but adds: “I am not going to allow a program that has served the whole state to become a Pittsburgh- and Philadelphiaonly development program. I think in trying to make a bill so that our former governor, who did abuse RACP and economic development borrowing and other programs, could not do it, this bill will tie the hands of the most fiscallyresponsible governor we have had. “Ed Rendell isn’t governor anymore. We don’t need to pass a law to stop his spending and borrowing anymore. Especially now that we have a governor who is responsible with the state’s money, and we can now lower our debt cap, responsibly.” Scarnati has said for months that Turzai’s RACP reform bill gave him several specific reasons for concerns. Firstly, Scarnati opposes Turzai’s plan
to increase the amount of match that private sources must provide for a project from 1-1 to a higher level. Scarnati says that would discriminate against smaller counties and rural areas where projects could not secure enough funding; Another concern relates to Turzai’s proposal to immediately roll back the RACP debt limit from $4.05 billion to $3.5 billion, then swiftly to $3 billion, and over 20 years to $1.5 billion. The cap was $1.45 billion when Rendell took office in 2003. “That proposed reduction may be too quick, and may hurt us dealing with a future crisis,” Scarnati said in June. Budget Secretary Charles Zogby said that schedule was the right goal, but may require some revision: “With the releases that were done under Gov. Rendell, we’ve cautioned that we just can’t go too quickly” in reducing the RACP debt cap, “or else we’re going to run into a place where the cap hits the releases, so we
can’t fund everything. … We’re hopeful to get to an agreement there.” Turzai also has steadfastly advocated to limit the program to $125 million annually, about a quarter of what Rendell allocated each year for the program, and about half of what Govs. Tom Ridge and Mark Schweiker tallied annually in the eight years preceding Rendell. Scarnati said: “That is not enough. We can reduce the cap and have hearings for the larger projects and borrow less, and we should do all that. And we should reach a compromise so we can. “But right now this state has a jobs problem and this state has a problem with banks loaning money to businesses. And we have this program to jump-start economic development. We should use it. And we need to put more than $125 million a year into it in the current economic situation.” Zogby initially said the administration would like to have the ability to regard the $125 million a year as a goal. CW
Alternative investments: a silver lining in a violent storm?
SCOTT C. WEAVER, CFP, CFS, CAS
The stock market has gone from amazing growth in the 1980’s and 1990’s, up over 2,029 percent, to unthinkable volatility and poor performance in the 21st Century. Traditional asset allocations consisting of stock, bonds and cash worked in traditional times, but there is nothing traditional about the current market cycle. Traditional aset allocation has for the most part failed the average investor. Top institutions such as Yale Endowment have shifted away from the traditional asset allocation model. They have increased their holdings in Alternative Investments to over 70 percent.* In fact, the average Endowment funds with assets over One Billion Dollars now have roughly 62 percent of their assets in Alternative Investments.* Why, and what do they know that you don’t know? What are the expectations and characteristics of the market moving forward? To answer these questions, you must first understand several factors: • Impact of Interest Rates: Interest Rates have steadily been declining since 1980. As rates fall, bond values increase, resulting in a very robust and profitable time for bonds. Rates are now at historical lows and cannot move much lower. Looking forward, total return expectations from bonds and bond funds have been reduced. Rates may stay low for a while longer, but eventually will rise and diminish returns. Coupon payments will have to carry the bulk of the total return equation. Looking back over the last decade, bonds, not stocks have generated the greatest portion of return in the traditional assets allocation model. This strength will no longer exist. • Consumer and Corporate Spending: The cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve has helped consumers and corporations refinance their debt obligation. This activity has helped stimulate economic activity. Economic cycles will be more severe without the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower rates in the future. • Stock Returns: Returns will be more dependent on earnings than market cycles. Also, large company stocks, small company stocks, mid company stocks and internationals stocks now correlate or move in the same direction over
80 percent of the time. Birds of a feather were flocking together. During the “Great Recession” 2007-2009, these stocks offered almost no market protection and moved together 90 percent of the time. Bonds also saw greater volatility due to liquidity risk. Traditional diversification failed the investor just when they needed it the most.
Scott C. Weaver, CFP, CFS, CAS
• Alternative Investments: Alternative Investments have demonstrated an opposite correlation to traditional asset allocation and particularly stocks. Using the efficient frontier model, Alternative Investments have demonstrated an attractive risk reward ratio compared to traditional investing. The next question everyone asks is, what exactly are alternative investments and how can I invest in them? Once available only for the largest Endowment funds and the super wealthy, the market is bringing Alternative Investments to Main Street. Alternative Investments can be a style of investing such as: Private Equity, Covered Calls, Managed Futures, Convertible Arbitrage, Merger Arbitrage, Global Infrastructure or Market Neutral to name a few. Or it can be an individual investment such as: Real Estate, Natural Resources, Commodities and Oil and Gas. Selecting these investments can all be overwhelming and intimidating, but I highly recommend taking the time to learn and listen. The world is changing and the markets are no different. Traditional means of investing are being challenged. Aging populations, large deficits, higher long term interest rates will be a detractor for growth and prosperity and demand a new approach to enhanced diversification. The market has created numerous ways to gain access to Alternative Investments. In the upcoming months, look for an Alternative Investments seminar to be hosted by me. Happy investing! CW
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NEWS 15
OCTOBER 2012 CAPITAL WATCH
Obama widens lead in Pennsylvania, poll shows Pennsylvania just might not be a “swing” state afterall. A Quinnipiac University/CBS News/ New York Times poll released Sept. 26 finds President Obama leading in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania by wide margins over Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The lead is widest in Pennsylvania, where the Quinnipiac poll had Obama with 54 percent and Romney 42 percent of likely voters. Women are the deciding factor in Pennsylvania. They’re backing Obama 58 percent to 37 percent in this most recent poll. The voting in Pennsylvania is essentially a tossup between men and independent voters. The Quinnipiac poll found that men favor Romney, 49 percent to 48 percent and independents are split at 48 percent each for Romney and Obama. “The president’s strength results from the fact that, for the first time in the entire campaign, he is seen as better able to fix the economy than is Romney, the issue that has been the Republican’s calling card since the general election campaign began,” said Quinnipiac Polling Institute assistant director Peter A. Brown in a prepared statement. “And the economy remains the overwhelming choice as the most important issue to voters’ presidential choice.”
Other findings of the poll in Pennsylvania: • The economy is the most important issue for 48 percent of Pennsylvania voters, while 20 percent list health care; 11 percent list the budget deficit and 7 percent list national security. • The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 54 - 41 percent and do a better job on Medicare, voters say 55 - 39 percent. Voters over 55 say Obama would do a better job on Medicare 52 - 43 percent and back the president 50 - 46 percent. • Romney would do a better job on the budget deficit, voters say 48 - 45. • A total of 57 percent of Pennsylvania voters are “very confident” or “somewhat confident” in Obama’s ability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East, compared to 44 percent for Romney.
cent say he would favor the middle class; 26 percent say he would favor the poor and 9 percent say he would favor the rich; Romney policies would favor the rich, 59 percent of voters say; 29 percent say he would treat all the same, while 9 percent say he would favor the middle class and less than 1 percent say he would favor the poor.
• In Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Robert Casey Jr. leads businessman Tom Smith, the Republican challenger, 49 - 43 percent. • Pennsylvania voters disapprove 47 - 36 percent of the job Gov. Tom Corbett is doing.
“While judges and politicians debate Pennsylvania’s voter ID measure, voters are solidly in support of the measure, 62 - 35 percent,” Brown said. And 99 percent of voters say they believe they have the necessary documents to cast a ballot.” The Quinnipiac Poll surveyed 1,180 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent. CW
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