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The British Chambers of Commerce Quarterly Economic Forecast (QEF) has revised down growth expectations for 2025, as firms deal with a raft of rising cost pressures.

Business investment and exports are likely to suffer this year because of the impact of the National Insurance rise and global uncertainties. Inflation and interest rates are also expected to stay higher for longer.

UK economic outlook

The QEF, winner of the 2024 FocusEconomics award for best GDP forecast, expects the UK economy to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2025, revised down from the previous forecast (1.3 per cent). This year’s limited growth will be driven largely by increased day-to-day government spending. GDP is expected to rise in 2026 to 1.4 per cent, but that is also slightly down from the last forecast (1.5 per cent).