NEW JERSEY M A R K E T U P D AT E NOVEMBER 2023
Welcome to Berkadia’s ‘NJ Market Update’ newsletter, your go-to source for the latest developments, trends, and insights in the dynamic world of commercial real estate. In this newsletter, we aim to provide you with a comprehensive overview of the most significant happenings in the industry, keeping you well-informed and up to date.
Bright Spots Amid Commercial Real Estate Struggles Kiplinger, October 23, 2023 “The landscape for commercial real estate may look dismal from afar with high interest rates and an office space market still in shakeout mode, but pockets of opportunity remain for investors with the right approach and strategy. Some — but by no means all — commercial real estate segments (particularly the office market) bore the brunt of the post-COVID upheaval. Even prime properties have seen ratings downgrades. Community and regional banks have been reluctant to enter the space as bank regulators and rating agencies keep a keen eye on exposure to deals on shaky footing. But in spite of those developments, there are categories that look attractive for investors, including the retail, industrial and hotel sectors.”
Trustco Bank Launches A New Mortgage Program That Offers Below-Market Rates To Existing Borrowers Forbes, October 24, 2023 “With mortgage rates currently above 8%, many buyers are postponing buying a home until market conditions improve. One bank is trying to entice home buyers back into the market with a unique mortgage offer for its customers. Trustco Bank, a New Yorkbased bank with 147 branches, unveiled its new “Split-the-Difference” mortgage rate in October. This approach provides existing Trustco mortgage customers looking to move into a new home with an opportunity to secure new mortgages at lower-than-market rates.”
Mortgage Rates Drop For First Time in Seven Weeks CNN, November 2, 2023 “Mortgage rates ticked down this week, snapping a seven-week streak of increases.The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to an average of 7.76% in the week ending November 2, down from 7.79% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 6.95%. The news comes a day after the Federal Reserve said in a widely anticipated move that it would leave its benchmark lending rate at the highest level in 22 years.”
Berkadia New Jersery Team
Market Update November 2023 |
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Global Investors to Move From U.S. Office to Residential Says AFIRE Globe St, October 17, 2023 “Trustco Bank, a New York-based bank with 147 branches, unveiled its new “Split-the-Difference” mortgage rate in October. This approach provides existing Trustco mortgage customers looking to move into a new home with an opportunity to secure new mortgages at lower-than-market rates.”
Tenants Score Major Victory After Jersey City’s Portside Towers Deemed to be Under Rent Control NJ.com, October 20, 2023 “The 6-0 board vote Thursday night means that tenants at the 527-unit Portside Towers, at 155 Washington Street and 100 Warren Street, some whose rent rose as much as 50% last year, could see their leases roll back to 2016 rental rates.”
The Next Chapter: Inside 601W’s Plan to Reposition Jersey City’s Iconic Harborside Office Complex Real Estate NJ, September 30, 2023 “Jersey City is a growth market,” Karasick said, speaking through a company representative. “Its population is growing higher and higher and higher. … So we see a lot of pluses behind the noise and behind the numbers. And I think, at the end of the day, if you have a unique product of great distinction, there’s a great demand for it.”
Deficit Doubling as US Economy Grows Shows Why Yields Are at 5% Yahoo Finance, October 24, 2023 “The government ran a $2.02 trillion deficit for the fiscal year through September, after adjustments to remove the impact of President Joe Biden’s student-loan forgiveness program, which was scotched by the Supreme Court. The gap is $1.02 trillion more than the prior year. The surge is a powerful illustration of a fiscal path that’s triggered warnings from economists, politicians and credit rating agencies. It also helps explain why yields on longer-term US Treasuries are reaching highs unseen since before the global financial crisis, with the government needing to issue ever more debt to cover the shortfall of revenues relative to spending. Ten-year yields surpassed 5% on Monday.”
Berkadia New Jersery Team
Market Update November 2023 |
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Biden Administration Focuses on Converting Commercial Properties to Residential Use in New Affordable Housing Steps CNN, September 19, 2023 “The Biden administration announced new steps Friday to ensure access to affordable housing, launching a slew of resources to convert high-vacancy commercial buildings to residential use. The effort is an attempt to address what the administration says is a dearth of much-needed, affordably priced, conveniently located and energy-efficient homes. Last week, CNN reported that – with mortgage rates nearing 8%, steadily rising home prices and historically low inventory of homes for sale – the housing market has been getting consistently worse for two years, and there appears to be no end in sight.”
David defeats Goliath!’: South Jersey Officials Celebrate End of Ørsted Offshore Wind Projects The Press of Atlantic City, November 1, 2023 “From anger in Trenton to disappointment in Atlantic City to celebration in Cape May County, Ørsted’s decision to end development of its Ocean Wind 1 and 2 projects off the Jersey Shore delivered a mix of emotions. In announcing the move Tuesday evening, executives with the Danish energy company cited high inflation, rising interest rates and supply chain issues.”
A New Newark Penn? $59M From Feds Will Go Long Way Toward That Aim ROINJ, November 7, 2023 “The better news: The $59 million appropriated for Newark Penn Station out of what officials are calling a historic $4.5 billion package of federal funding in public transportation for New Jersey and the region may be enough to modernize a station that has long needed a facelift. Newark Mayor Ras Baraka told reporters at the media event that the benefits go way beyond the cosmetics. “This Penn Station here changes and when it changes, people’s lives change throughout the region and the state but also in the city of Newark,” he said.”
Berkadia New Jersery Team
Market Update November 2023 |
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NOVEMBER FEATURE MULTIFAMILY Cap Rates vs Interest Rates CAP RATE INVERSION JULY 2022
7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Interest Rates Cap Rates
Source: RCA
Historically, cap rates have been higher than interest rates. Over the last decade, that spread has been an average of 100bps. The recent increases in the 10-Year Treasury have reversed this trend, with interest rates now around 50bps higher than cap rates. This atypical inversion between cap rates and interest rates begs the question, where do we go from here?
Berkadia New Jersery Team
Market Update November 2023 |
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NEW JERSEY Investment Sales
Berkadia New Jersey Investment Sales, led by Nat Gambuzza, provides a depth of advisory and transaction services for income generating properties that is unparalleled in the industry. Their clients include private investors, partnerships, lenders and institutions of various net worth. The team has specialized expertise and excels in the most complex transactions, including portfolio sales, distressed property sales, note sales and time-sensitive 1031 tax exchange transactions. Prior to joining Berkadia in 2022, the team worked at two otherwise national real estate investment services firms
Nat Gambuzza
Spencer Beriont
Trevor Fiebel
Tim Blashford
Senior Managing Director
Senior Director
Senior Director
Director
973.809.1755
908.328.4494
908.285.6921
201.396.6253
862.309.5619
nat.gambuzza@berkadia.com
spencer.beriont@berkadia.com
trevor.fiebel@berkadia.com
tim.blashford@berkadia.com
mike.o’reilly@berkadia.com
Brian Antognini
Nick Balancia
Senior Transaction Manager
Associate Director
862.309.5618
908.642.1905
brian.antognini@berkadia.com
nick.balancia@berkadia.com
Mike O’Reilly Senior Financial Analyst
NEW JERSEY Mortgage Banking
Josh Lipsey Senior Director 201.577.1909 josh.lipsey@berkadia.com
Berkadia New Jersery Team
Market Update November 2023 |
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