BETTING QUOTES
BY XPERTBET
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“Mathematics is a Divine Science”
“Most always it is the best to bet in singles”
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GAMBLING CODEX AND QUOTES - Gamble to win but don’t expect win. - Do not be superstitious. - Caution should come from winning not from losing. - Do not believe in luck. - Manage betting budget carefully. - It is better to win 1$ then to might have won 1000$. - Do not look at odd; look at outcome, potential and probability. - Caution is your ally only fools play courage on odds. - 99% of gamblers lose then they win be in 1% that win more then they lose. - Don’t play all your cash, split stakes many times. - If you have to choose between hope, faith, luck and mathematics chose mathematics because is most certain most of the times. - To upgrade stake is safer then to double it but none the less it s not about odd. - Split stake if you re to win and cover bet all if you are fool. - If once you win split stake or split win. You shall need it when you lose. - Despise people hating gamblers with their prejudices. Yes, with smile on your face. - Don’t bet machines unless you think their owners are stupid. - Prove that you are winning not that you might have won. - Win some each hour rather then even each second.
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GAMBLING SAYINGS Money won is twice as sweet as money earned. ~From the movie The Color of Money. This is probably why we all do gamble it s always sweeter then working for cash. If you must play, decide upon three things at the start: the rules of the game, the stakes, and the quitting time. ~Chinese Proverb. The rules you should be aware to understand margins of the game odds alone won’t tell you much. Understand the stakes because if you lose the less is better if you win the more is better but it s never to risk way too much or to lose more then could be avoided. Quitting time is metaphor rather understand losing margin, if you intend to quit don’t even start… Luck never gives; it only lends. ~Swedish Proverb. Even blind chicken catch seed sometimes. Based on your research put into matter you will be more or less successful but it s imperative not to take anything for granted, statistics will only get you so far as statistics is like bikini it uncovers a lot it shows little if any. At the gambling table, there are no fathers and sons. ~Chinese Proverb This proverb shows that fortune luck and alike trivial is for the sake of arguments and stories. In eyes of system everything is equal. Lottery: A tax on people who are bad at math. ~Author Unknown If you have 50% chance to win then think twice and be sure to quad cover stake in case chance didn’t work. If you have 0.0000000001% chance to win like in lottery and bet gamble then you don’t know shit about math. The better the gambler, the worse the man.
~Publius Syrus The worse the
gambler, the unhappier the man. 5 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
The gambling known as business looks with austere disfavor upon the business known as gambling. ~Ambrose Bierce Do all and cover everything and enjoy it. Be booker, gambler researcher and professional gambler and do arbitrage. "A gambler with a system must be, to a greater or lesser extent, insane." -George Augustus Sala (1828-95) English writer and journalist Gambler without system must be lotto player. I don’t do lotto. Gambler without system is like man in labyrinth without long rope. System everything cover then double cover then triple cover then cover even margin for possible lose of margin. Think on everything and you will score most of times first time. "Don't gamble the rent money or you'll land up sleeping on the park bench." -Capt. Summer Fun, Ret. Very important is to understand what your stake is. You can stretch your legs only as far your bed goes. Never try to win on luck counting on luck is riskier then counting on love which is risky enough. "Gambling is the future on the internet. You can only look at so many dirty pictures." -Simon Noble, an Austrian-based internet bookmaker I do gamble everywhere even in own family. I am gambler. Internet gambling is great. You can do arbitrage find better odds and do research while gambling. Just beware of scam sites. "If I had the money and the drinking capacity, I'd probably live at roulette table and let my life go to hell." -Michael Ventura Not only roulette. "If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun." -Chico Marx Cover potential lose before it happens and split win right after it happens. Save white cash for black days. "He had the calm confidence of a Christian with four aces." -Mark Twain Once you know you win and you remain calm even when not playing poker and no one reads 6 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
your body language then you have turn pro. Accept wins and loss like nothing happen and nothing did it s only a game. "My advice to the unborn is, don't be born with a gambling instinct unless you have a good sense of probabilities." Jack Dreyfus of Dreyfus Mutual on plain numbers you can win every time neat stake at small odd with probability and you cashed around 10% over stake. If you have stake covered for many times then even don’t will lead to did. I do. But I cover my probabilities like I play woman which is devil which hates me. It is imperative to win three times before losing margin. And if losing margin occurs for sometimes it will be sure you have that plenty covered with your other stakes. It is all about MULTIBET. "It can be argued that man's instinct to gamble is the only reason he is still not a monkey up in the trees." -Mario Puzo, Inside Las Vegas If you want more it will drive you dead tired through life with smile on your face. Just beware that more doesn’t always point to double everything by all means. That’s path to doom never count on luck. "I've learned the lesson that the worst thing that can happen to a gambler is to let his recent losses or wins knock him off keel emotionally." -Andrew Beyer Be pro in room full of people don’t let anyone knows what you re after how big your stake is and in the end don’t let them enough material to even guess have you won or lost. Pro don’t take gambling emotional only people that play on luck tie emotions with gambling. "Even as I approach the gambling hall, as soon as I hear, two rooms away, the jingle of money poured out on the table, I almost go into convulsions." -Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Gambler (1867) It s more addictive then heroin smoked with nicotine. If you can’t stomach it and cant control your stakes and do fine math then don’t do it. 7 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
"Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy." -Dr. G It s only system. The more bulletproof the better the faster payout in system even better the bigger profit margin even better but beware of losing or not having next turns to cover. "The smarter you play, the luckier you'll be." -Mark Pilarski Research statistics math covering stakes splitting. This is game of many charms for wanderer’s mafia and accountants. "Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect." -Ralph Waldo Emerson. Put luck aside. If you have less luck then the others you can make even more cash in covering and stakes splitting. Abandon luck. You need to cover causes effects to make your fast paying bulletproof box and do winning and losing covered with winning. Luck and hope are for afterlife and religion. "The only difference between a winner and a loser is character." - Nick the Greek Those people getting lotto reward then catching heart attack are fine example of loser character. They played against very huge impossible to beat probability only losers do that. Then they got lucky because they counted to get lucky only losers count on luck actually math paradox threw them out. Then they got dead when won because they gamble emotionally. Triple losers they are. Gambling character of a pro is the one that plays horse race with poker face. "Nobody is always a winner, and anybody who says he is, is either a liar or doesn't play poker." -Amarillo Slim Not just poker everything tends to have not favorable outcome. Virtue is have losing covered and wins boxed. "Luck sometimes visits a fool, but it never sits down with him." - German Proverb I won, double, I won, double, I lost. Sure you are sucker you thought to continue 8 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
indefinitely? All are random occurrences with more or less probability and with small or better odds. It s all about winning even if lost through coverage or just win and have coverage risk free. "Luck never made a man wise." – Seneca Very true! As long you count on good luck or bad luck you will be dumb ass lotto player. "Men of action are favored by the Goddess of luck." - George S. Clason Do your research and have your system prepared for worse then with or without luck you will be steady winner. "Diligence is the mother of good luck." - Benjamin Franklin Research research think think! "Men have made an idol of luck as an excuse for their own thoughtlessness." – Democritus It is not bad luck when lose or good one when you win. Either you re think tank on win and lose either you re lotto player. "Work and acquire, and thou hast chained the wheel of Chance." - Ralph Waldo Emerson Raise stake when you can cover them. Spilt stake on profits. Acquire accumulate and put to action. "The champion makes his own luck." - Red Blaik Once you know how to lose smart you shall know how to win big. "A little government and a little luck are necessary in life; but only a fool trusts either of them." - P.J. O'Rourke If you re pro gambler who don’t believe in luck people will call your shots lucky when you win. Would you trust that? "Nobody gets justice. People only get good luck or bad luck." - Orson Welles They get randomness sometimes in trail sometimes out. 9 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
"Luck is not something you can mention in the presence of self-made men." - E.B. White Or pro gambler. "Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more you sweat, the luckier you get." - Ray Kroc Research research research! Make your best box calculate it to win faster to win more and better then upgrade it. Once your box is your place your sweat paid of. "All of us have bad luck and good luck. The man who persists through the bad luck -- who keeps right on going -- is the man who is there when the good luck comes -- and is ready to receive it." - Robert Collier Box box box! Count on lose to calculate win. Cover everything split stakes. "There is no such thing as luck." - from "Star Wars" It s only a game. Those that play blind sometimes catch luck or hope those training hard turn pro. "Luck's always to blame." - Jean de la Fontaine Most gamblers that play on luck all lotto suckers and alike will say they knew it if they survive heart attack and they would say bad luck if they bust which is more likely. "Depend on the rabbit's foot if you will, but remember it didn't work for the rabbit." - R. E. Shay Superstitious left aside with all the luck bad luck and all the hopes and feelings. Pro is because is - not because of this or that. "The only sure thing about luck is that it will change." - Wilson Mizner Bet on will change in some boxes. Occurrences will occur as they do only that. "Luck is not a factor." - Lindsay Brigman from "The Abyss" (1989) As long you count on luck count on bad luck. Once you have independent box watch it reveals. "Fortune favors the bold." - Terence 190-159 BC Fortune favors the smart. "Good luck needs no explanation." - Shirley Temple Black Neither bad does. No luck only was that or other. 10 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
"Luck is not chance - It's Toil - Fortune's expensive smile - Is earned" - Emily Dickinson The better you do the faster you shall grow. Luck will only make you go broke. "Fortune always will confer an aura - Of worth, unworthily; and in this world The lucky person passes for a genius." – Euripedes Lucky person can glorify moment. Genius will be mentioned as a reference for centuries. "A gambler never makes the same mistake twice. It's usually three or more times." -VP Pappy Even more but it s only game. Once you profit from mistake you will want to do them all the time. "Gambling is not about how well you play the games, it's really about how well you handle your money." -VP Pappy Stakes stakes stakes. Split move the boxes split handle manage low risk a bit higher split split split. ‘Many receive advice, few profits by it.’ – Publilius Syrus, 42BC; Syrian-born writer of Latin maxims Decide weather you follow or lead and when you consume digest first. ‘The problem for most punters is that they just don’t know enough.’ Tipster Henry Rix is one of the few who makes it his business to know everything it is possible to ascertain – and helping you know it all is what this book is all about. Realize that no one knows everything. Statistics and hunch will only get you so far as anything can and will happen. ‘To succeed you must not be easily swayed by the opinions of others. You have to work out your own ideas and stand by them.’ – noted pro punter Alan Potts You can start up from my systems and then beat me do it even better. By time you do upgrades I will 11 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
change it to. There is no certainty only thing that put panties on hairy back part in cold is adaptation. ‘If I were you, I would not bet, but if you must bet – BET!’ – William I’Anson; as true now as when this Derby-winning trainer (Blink Bonny, 1857; Blair Athol, 1864) dispensed it. No one can assure you of winning odds most often are just market movement. It is your box to revels as truthfully and as profitably as possible. ‘The question “Can a system beat the races?” can surely be answered in the affirmative.’ – doyen of system originators Nick Mordin, 2002 Nothing wrong with system it s only people to follow it blindly not following as should put it in play without research or stretching to fit without margins or coverage. ‘Would have won is the same as losing.’ – Dave Nevison, February 2008 Idea is to win. Win win win. 90% of bets, more welcome less can be handled and put coverage bet of losing in first or worst second try. Have all in circle leading to profit! ‘A tip is an opinion. It might be a strong opinion – one stated with some conviction – but it’s still an opinion, and if all of them were bang on target then there wouldn’t be such things as horse races.’– Jeffrey Bernard, 1991 No bet is sure thing that’s why is called bet and gamble. Even pro lose at times. Only difference is pro ass is covered. ‘The “gambler’s fallacy” is the belief that the probability of an event is decreased when the event has occurred recently, even though the probability of the event is objectively known to be independent across trials.’ – Dek Terrell, Kansas State University, 1994, with an observation which can affect many types of betting from casino numbers to lotteries to horse racing. Low odds, highs odd are market movement. It s bookies that try to cover their players stakes with adjusting odds to fit demands. All the numbers are turbulent, it s research that makes higher odds win and lower go bust. That 12 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
tied with uncertainty is to show blind and high wont work, but research and gut can improve. ‘You would be amazed at how many people turn down great value bets on the grounds that the price was too big to be true.’ – Paul Kealy, Definitive Guide to Betting Exchanges Consult odds both dropping and rising but never decide bet upon the odd. Marker price of odd generated upon market movement and bookies covering their hot are to confuse not to reassure. ‘Following gambles is a sure way to the poorhouse and always has been.’ – Matt Williams, Racing Post exchange betting guru, 2005 When I m talking covering, I m not saying following. If you follow because wasn’t might easily will not be again. All trials are independent and different to themselves and one another. ‘Taking advantage of other people’s over-reactions is one of the easiest ways to make money out of any sport.’ – Paul Kealy, 2005 If you look at the market movement you can easily see dropping or rising odds. Then you can chose either to follow on it or to avoid it to bet with market or against it. ‘What is one man’s idea of buying money is another’s idea of an unbelievable lay.’ Paul Kealy of the Racing Post reminding punters to ask for any price they fancy. Bet early on favorite bet late on rising odd. By doing this you can do even arbitrage at same bookie. Get sure bet and win fair percentage no matter what happens in match. ‘If you are betting in-running on a televised event, and are pretty clued-up about that sport, you will often be able to profit by remaining uninfluenced by a biased or inexpert commentator who may well be pointing less experienced viewers and gamblers towards the least likely outcome.’ – Graham Sharpe Hear but think. Watch but do not follow blindly. There s huge difference between heard said and sure outcome. 13 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
‘I can see that they – exchanges – sometimes offer great value if you’re a punter but you’ve always got to ask yourself if you could be betting against someone who knows a bit more than you.’ – racecourse bookie Andy Smith Odd is to be taken with precaution. There is no sure thing but also at times higher might come like through cheese while lower might happen to be difficult to profit from. Odd and price on bet should be taken as pointer never as decider. ‘For a potentially rumbustious fixture you are never going to be offered a spread which represents value for money to buy.’ – Under the heading Always look up for safe harbors. Events that are not needle eye in news and bookies charts. Look for events that are low profile and not so much market turbulent among gamblers. ‘There is never any value in buying cards in derbies’, Kevin Pullein considers bookings index betting (Racing Post, 13 January 2008). Avoid no go games. Too unpredictable odds with any outcome possible can go either ways too often leading you to loss. ‘Don’t be afraid to go against the crowd. Prices will move in accordance with the volume of money, meaning that if you are able to identify a bet which goes against the obvious, you will normally obtain better value.’– BetMessenger.com Never take odd for granted. Occurrence can go either way. You re up to identify your call not your odds. ‘Keep records of your bets so that you can see where your strengths and weaknesses lie.’ Advice which could be applied to most gambling disciplines from BetMessenger.com. Having fat robust statistics of thoughts outcomes and ideas, systems and anything else related to your calls can be of huge matter in sharpening your future hunch and percentage of wins. 14 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
‘It is imperative to open accounts with all firms and to shop around, without exception, for the best possible price.’ – Karim Fatih, Racing Post, 4 February 2008 The better the odd on occurrence the more you win on win. ‘Much money is made in spread betting by swimming against the tide of popular opinion. Just because a card contains a bunch of small fields on soft ground it does not mean that winning distances will be enormous. Similarly, ultra-competitive contests run on fast ground don’t always lead to photo-finishes.’ – Karim Fatih, Racing Post, 18 February 2008 Just beware of losing. Never go just on odd being low or high. ‘Put the same thought into closing bets that you do into opening bets. Consider each bet on its merits – even (especially) closing bets – and only close if you are confident that the price is wrong and that you are getting a value trade.’ – Karim Fatih, Racing Post, 17 March 2008 Analyze analyze analyze. Always look at prices you wouldn’t like to be on before you look at prices you do want to be on. If you know what will not come you know what will in two ways bet or might in three ways. Choose an involatile market for your first bets; for example, total goals in a football match, bowlers’ wickets in a Test match or indeed total tries in a rugby game. Have a small bet on a few games of your choice and see how you get on. Worst case scenario, a £2 play in any of these markets should not cost you much. Good system has witnessed many statistics challenges. Do your research. With the internet and the endless written material available to all it is very easy to make some statistical based assumptions about a game. For example, if you are playing the time of the first goal in a game between Manchester United and Arsenal, your research might indicate that the first goal in the game over the last ten 15 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
years on average comes in the fiftieth minute of the match. The spread betting price will be around 37–40, and therefore you would surmise a buy is appropriate. This can be done for pretty much any market and then you can ascertain if your gut feeling is right. Research research research. People who understand sport but not betting, or in particular spread betting, dismiss the value of betting by gut. More times than I care to remember I have heard a person who is knowledgeable on sport say, ‘I feel that…’. This is loose talk but should not be dispelled when making your bet. If the bet doesn’t feel right it will more often than not be a loser for you. This “gut” combined with staking factor can make you either go rich or go broke depending on how good or bad you do it. Staking is a key factor in any betting and in particular spread betting. The issue is as follows: In fixed odds betting if a horse is 10/1 and you believe it to be a 9/1 shot to win the race you would stake £10. If it’s a 10/1 shot and you believe it to be an 8/1 shot you would stake £20, and so on. In spread betting this rule does not necessarily apply. Yes, grade your bets in a linear fashion depending on how far wrong the price is away from what you perceive it to be; however, always build in a ‘blow-up’ factor. By this I mean always ask yourself, does this bet have a possibility of going horribly wrong on me? It is never good to lose. It is always risky to cover. It is never nice to get to losing margin. Keep your shoes tie and win big when risk is low not might have won only won. For example, you might surmise that the total shirt numbers in a Chelsea v. Blackburn game is far too high at 32–35. If you made an aggressive sell at 32 you could of course be striking a brilliant bet. However, any number of scenarios beyond your control can occur; for example, a low numbered shirt is substituted/sent off/injured and replaced by a very high number shirt. This can happen for several players and then you 16 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
are staring down the barrel of a huge loss even though you made a sensible bet. These are the joys of unlimited liability betting but they are also the catalyst for higher rewards and high-adrenaline betting. Remember, the more right you are, the more you win. Nowadays spread betting traders have to price up a vast array of markets on a vast range of events. With the advent of Sky TV and the explosion of sports channels, twinned with the volume of live sport and ways to bet on it, demand on traders is huge. Therefore, not every price can now be right. In a football match if Aston Villa are 5/6 to beat Newcastle then that is the price. However, more of the exotic markets on the spreads are sometimes going to be plain wrong. If you spend the time looking on the sites you will find a long price. It’s just that it might be ‘How many players will be wearing gloves in the Premiership this weekend?’! You now have to offer clients as many markets as you possibly can to trade on. However, especially on the more specialist markets, we tend to get turned over on a market we thought might just see a few small trades but ends up being a huge company position. This is the game we play and over time we hope we can win, but often we do not. On a similar note a golf or tennis spread trader might have to price up two tournaments over a weekend. That’s a lot of games to mark up. Not all prices can be correct. Fact! Not much depends upon price and bet on odd but everything hangs on outcome and win. Try to look through fixtures, not to look to fixtures, try to find low risk win and win not to odd, not to market turbulence but to real outcome. The more you up percentage of wins on better odds the more you upgrade your betting cash. Finally, we come to betting in-running. This is a doubleedged sword. On the one hand, if a bet is going well you want to take your profit and leave with some cash. However, there is always the issue that you are paying the spread to get out of the bet. 17 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
The same, of course, is true in fixed odds punting. For example, say you buy the time of the first try in a rugby game at 22–25. After 20 minutes and no try the price is 40–43; you close your bet for a 15- point profit. Profit is always good but you have had to pay a three-point spread to get out of the bet. Unless you are convinced there is an imminent try there is a stronger case for staying in the bet. This is true in more cases than not. Yes, it’s annoying if a guaranteed profit turns into a loss, but over time you will make more using this strategy. Of course, there are exceptions to this rule, but be brave… fortune favours it. Be brave not dumb. ‘Building up a database of how players have fared when winning or losing sets at various stages of matches is an invaluable in-running tool.’ – James Pyman of the Racing Post on tennis betting Your books can beat bookies. Caution and fact and be on your own tide. ‘There is a considerable body of evidence which says that, contrary to the general perception, winning the toss has very little effect on the eventual result in the one day game and none whatsoever in first-class games of three or more days.’ – cricket betting expert John Ize Start from assumption that all occurrences are independent among themselves and be sure they are. Patterns are not necessarily clear from anomalies. ‘Cover yourself if backing a boxer traveling to a foreign country, by having a saver on the draw. Biased judges can often be reluctant to allow the home fighter to be beaten in front of his own fans. There are often more ways than one for a fight to be drawn, and a draw gives promoters the chance to stage a lucrative repeat performance.’ – Graham Sharpe, who profited at 40/1 from Lennox Lewis’s scandalous failure to be given the verdict against Evander Holyfield If you know more then bookie you will beat him if you fairly account your knowledge and put it to action. 18 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
‘In ante-post horse racing betting the rule is usually “all in, run or not”. Try asking your bookie to offer you “all in, drugged or not” when betting on athletics or cycling.’ – Graham Sharpe Build your position don’t be shy if you don’t ask you won’t get it. ‘We must get used to the fact that most of the sport we watch on TV is not as live as it is often claimed to be. And with American golf it is often not even close to being live.’ – This cautionary warning, which must be heeded by inrunning punters, is from Paul Kealy of the Racing Post. He pointed out that ad breaks often mean that shots are later shown ‘as live’. Also, of course, you only need watch two TVs showing different coverage of the same event to see for yourself the inherent delays in transmission methods, which can make a huge difference if you are trading whilst watching the slower version against other punters using the faster. Your information source must be as flawless as possible. ‘The best advantage a punter can secure is if they take a stance against a bookmaker who has taken a stand on any given event.’ – Malcolm Boyle, betting expert, 2006 Just don’t do it faith blinded. Bookies would do something else if they aren’t profiting. Avoid the big name clubs, who are invariably bad value because of their public following.’ – racing bets guru Mark Coton on football Market tide should rarely be your tide. Market kills profit, market drop odds; market is mob of lotto players misleading a pro. ‘A proven winning player who has a long, winless run because of injury, illness or a change of clubs will tend to show vastly improved form once he gets on the comeback trail.’ Your statistical data can be invaluable to your future betting success. 19 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
‘From my experience a good number of the lines are compiled by the office junior who doesn’t have a clue what they are doing, and even if you spend an hour working out what the lines should be from the stats then you should make a decent profit.’ William G Nevin, US sports expert and former head of sport for BetUSA.com, prior to the 2008 Superbowl, on why specials (or prop bets, as American punters know them), can offer value. Combined with market turbulence in movement, masking and skimming from bookers there will always be passages for those seeking them. ‘I’ve won all my life and what I do is very simple. I am a contrarian. I take the team that nobody wants to back and that way I always get value. The team I am backing have been losing, they’re angry, they’ve got a big target on the opposition’s chest and they’re going for them.’ Top US sports betting handicapper (tipster) Wayne Allyn Root in February 2008, who insists, ‘I have never had inside information. I don’t want information.’ He also believes, ‘Early money is smart, late money is the guy on the street looking to get a bet on before kick-off.’ There is no sure bet. If you can calculate potential risk with stakes and losing margin, of you can manage your money well your success will depend on all that contrarian or not. ‘The best point-spread in a [American] football game may fluctuate during the days leading up to the game. Pros bet early in the week, because that’s when the betting lines are weakest. As the lines move in response to the pros’ bets, the lines become harder to beat because they more closely reflect the direction in which the money is moving, or being bet.’ – The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Gambling Like a Pro, 1996 Your choice should not be dependent upon odd price. The bigger the price on selected event, the better is amount on the win. 20 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
‘Oppose favourites that performed much better than expected in the previous week. The average bettor thinks such teams are at the start of a hot streak. This is a classic case of what psychologists and economists call the “winner’s blessing” effect. On average, these punters are just plain wrong. Still, the money goes down in support of their misguided beliefs, and shortens the odds of the “hot” team below what they should be.’ Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams points up a theory supported by a prestigious study into this phenomenon in US sports (Betting To Win, 2002). Never base your bet solely upon recent history. This combined with don’t expect to win will lower your stakes and your risks to affordable. ‘Don’t be drawn into backing teams solely because they have a big-name quarterback…look for teams who improved towards the end of the previous season, as the momentum can often be carried over’… – Phil Agius of The Post with NFL advice. Don’t go crazy about names. That is sure way to big lose over small odds. ‘If the perfect betting system existed, bookmakers wouldn’t.’ – Graham Sharpe Nothing is perfect. But being unperfected system still gives a way much space for profitability. ‘Systems? Bookmakers love them.’ – jockey-turned-author Jack Leach Loved them or not you play your game let bookies play theirs. ‘Ignore my tips.’ – Racing Post star writer Jon Lees Don’t be too sure of anything protect your bets, your stakes your everything. ‘Ignore tips. The nearer to the horse’s mouth, the worse they are.’ – Jeffrey Bernard, 1991 Utter tosh can be anything of an asset in predicting but do not neglect just don’t go crazy about it. 21 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
‘Never take the official going description for granted because as often as not it will be wrong.’ Mel Collier gives Cheltenham Festival advice to Racing Post readers in February 2008. There is only one way for every winner his own way. ‘Find this year’s most ridiculously underpriced runner, whose odds owe considerably more to hyperbole than to its exploits on the track, and lay it all for all you’re worth.’ – Pietro Innocenzi, Racing Post, 1 March 2008 If planned to cover losing expecting to win beware it s game of nerves. ‘Always remember that finding winners at Cheltenham is very hard, as the track is tricky and the competition fierce, so don’t beat yourself up about it if things go pearshaped.’ – Tom Segal, 2 March 2008 When I m in choice I can not decide no matter how juicy odds look like I chose not to decide, not to bet. Better with buck in pocket then one more lose I need to cover. ‘If you have the discipline to wait for the ground, to trust your own eyes, to plunge on the each-way bankers in small fields and keep the stakes small for the big handicaps, you are onto a winner.’ – Stuart Barnes, Sunday Times, 9 March 2008 Not going hasty or emotional is what separates gambler emo loser from professional player. ‘There is a world of difference between intelligent betting and stupid gambling. The very word “gambling” suggests recklessness and folly, but if you are putting money on horses without some definite plan you are gambling – and a gambler cannot win consistently.’ – RW Wood Box your system well and box it like it is not going according to plan then you shall have it clean and profit on least occurrence that world will give you. ‘Try not to think you’re better than you are.’ – top player Erik Seidel, 2005 Certainty is not sheltered in gambling and betting, but none the less system can give it. 22 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
‘You will have more money not betting on bad hands than you will win betting on good hands.’ – Russel Crouse, 1941 Don’t be too eager to cover potential loss be eager to gain sure win. ‘Don’t lend money to another player. The money you lend will often help break you.’ – expert US card player John Scarne, 1961 Never invest to bookie. Take their cash not lending them yours. ‘If you’re afraid to lose your money, you can’t play to win.’ – Johnny Moss, 1981 Compare – stakes, risks, odds, potentials and box them, double box them, triple box them, then win win win.
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