BETTING QUOTES II

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BETTING QUOTES II

BY XPERTBET


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“Mathematics is a Divine Science”

“Most always it is the best to bet in singles”

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The faster payout higher stake it gets. Gambling exists for desire of winning not losing to cover. The more you win the better it s not about risk and potential gain, it s about low risk at the higher the better odd or fine tuned box to cover ongoing stakes raise on betting turnover. If you are afraid to lose then don’t gamble. You just need to manage for better win to lose with margins and things will go up. I make fortune with gambling online but you have to make steps to it. This book and methods will help you see big picture and golden pot under tree in fog. Do not allow the price of a horse to affect the size of your stake. Winners at 33/1 pay for a large number of losers. Do not back a horse trained by the first person you see at the track. There is no statistical reason to do so. Pay huge attention to the trainer’s cold list in the Racing Post. Even the top stables have blank periods and they cannot explain why this happens when they continue with the same tried and trusted training methods, food stuffs and placing of horses. Take note of significant jockey bookings. AP has got a good percentage of winners on Charlie Egerton-trained horses and has formed a profitable partnership with Tor Sturgis. Take note when smaller yards target the same races each year. An up-and-coming apprentice can be a very useful ally to profitable betting. Their allowance can be a vital tool in keeping one step in front of the handicapper.

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JIM’S JOLLIES ‘You can analyse all the other factors – jockey, trainer, trip etc – but if the ground is wrong, none of it really matters.’ ‘Try to leave placing your bet as late as possible. It’s diffi cult to keep an eye on movements in the betting ring AND get a good look at the horses but if you’re at the course you can gain a good impression of a horse’s well being by studying him in the pre-parade ring and then, if you like what you see, nip off to the ring to get on.’ ‘Keep an eye out for horses moving up in distance if they have been noted as running on well towards the end of a shorter race.’ ‘If a horse runs badly, and there is a good excuse, give it another chance. But if you don’t know why it ran badly, leave it alone.’ ‘Don’t take the form in two-mile “bumpers”, National Hunt Flat Races, as an indication of equal merit with form over two miles on the Flat.’ ‘A major (betting) move at a big meeting is much more significant than at a small meeting, where crowds are sparse.’ ‘Be wary of first-time blinkers when fitted to stayers. With sprinters they often give a horse an edge.’ ‘If a small trainer sends a horse on a very long journey to run, that could be the opportunity for a value bet.’

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FRANCOME’S PADDOCK POINTERS Ignore horses who are edgy and not cool, calm and collected – unless you are aware that this is their usual demeanour. Forget about paddock inspection for jumpers, who spend too much time wrapped up in rugs. Study horses with the light behind you and your head held still. Never only look at the horses you fancy – check out the whole field. Look for a coat with ‘real lustre’. Sprinters must have broad chests, be well muscled and look powerful, from front, sideways and behind. Try to listen out for the horse’s breathing – ‘You don’t want something you can hear coming a mile off.’ Big feet are an asset on soft ground. Two year olds – the bigger and taller, the better. Horses displaying evidence of sexual excitement – ‘You’re better off leaving them alone until they’ve had their knackers removed.’

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PALEY’S PONDERINGS 1. The first question to ask when you want a bet is: How will this race be run? And the second: Will it suit the horse I am interested in backing? 2. Watch as many horse races as possible, even if the over-excitable Mark Johnson or the terminally bored Graham Goode is commentating. 3. Look at every horse in the race, not just the one you’ve backed. 4. Concentrate virtually wholly on the better class of animals in the higher-grade races. 5. Cram as much form study in as time will allow. 6. When you find a horse ‘coming to the boil’ and running into form back on a winnable rating, stick with it. It will almost certainly pay its way in time. 7. The going and the draw are the two most important variables in determining the outcome of any horse race. 8. If there are doubts about the going, draw bias, the price or any other highly important variable, wait till the very last minute until having a bet. 9. Keep your pockets sewn up when the ground is offi cially heavy. 10. The influence of weight is vastly overrated. In the majority of cases horses will not reverse the form despite being better off at the weights. 11. Only forgive a horse an unlucky-in-running run once. The vast majority who repeat the offence will repeatedly find trouble. 12. Follow horses that travel well in races and/or have demonstrated a turn of foot in a truly run race. 7 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com


13. Look, look and look again at the stats history of the big races but use them intelligently. Buffoons on television telling us that no horse above draw nine can win the John Smith’s Cup should remember that that is only true when the ground isn’t on the soft side of good. And that’s a fact. 14. It’s the Cheltenham Festival, Royal Ascot, the Derby, the Grand National. You don’t HAVE to have a bet. 15. Concentrate at specialist courses like Brighton or Goodwood on horses that have demonstrated an ability to act at those tracks or have so much in hand their relative inability to do so won’t matter. 16. Study courses until you can study them no longer. Take on board that Ascot’s short straight requires different qualities in a horse than York or Newbury’s galloping terrains. 17. In sprints concentrate solely on horses in form. 18. The number of race meetings is set to continue growing at an alarming rate. Have an area you can specialise in, whether it be group races, sprints or middle-distance handicaps. 19. Think like a bookmaker. Compile your own betting forecast, but above all be honest with yourself. Ask yourself if you would really offer those odds if you were a layer. 20. Must-have books for any serious punters library: Nick Mordin, Betting For A Living; Alan Potts, Against the Crowd; Mark Coton, Value Betting. The best to start with is the Racing Post’s Definitive Guide to Betting on Horses. 21. Go to the paddock. Learn the different types of physique and the good and bad signs displayed by horses before the race. Nick Mordin’s book The Winning Look covers all the bases. 8 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com


22. Never underestimate the psychology and emotion involved in gambling. If your mood swings are extreme you’ll find it difficult to survive the inevitable losing runs. 23. Put a bank together, one you’re comfortable with, and have a staking plan sorted out, one that suits your particular style of betting.

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MAC’S CRACKERS 1. Back the horse that won the same race last year. 2. Back horses blinkered or visored for the first time. 3. Back the outsider of three. 4. If a top jockey is riding at his absolute minimum weight back his horse. 5. In handicaps restrict yourself to horses running off their old mark when their new rating will be higher. 6. In amateur and apprentice races, go for the most experienced and best jockey, whatever he or she is riding. 7. Consider the effect of the draw sensibly. 8. When studying a maiden race, find out whether any of the runners are engaged in big races later in the season; those that are must be highly rated. 9. Back the animal whose stable has sent it the longest distance for the race. 10. If the stable has more than one runner, go for the outsider. 11. Totally illogically, support horses with the same initials in forecasts. 12. Go for any horse whose racecard number is the same as its starting stall position.

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NO BULLSHIT! 1. Seek where thou wilt for winners, but bet only when thou seest value; deliver thyself from the temptation to bet in every race. 2. Put not thy faith in luck, nor the law of averages, nor thy trust in staking systems, for these are delusions. 3. Let thy stake be related to the depth of thy pocket and to what thou regardest as the true chance of the horse; that which hath the greater chance deserveth the greater stake. 4. Thou shalt not bet each-way in big fields unless thou art well satisfied as to the value of the place bet. 5. Bet with book or Tote according to the judgement: thus shalt thou endeavour to get the best of both worlds. 6. Thou shalt not bet ante-post except upon horses that are known to be definite runners. 7. Beware the man who would sell thee a system; if thou knowest a profitable one, preserve it to thyself in silence. 8. Double and treble if you must; but bet not upon objections, for thou hast not the evidence and the stewards know not what they do. 9. Let thy betting be informed by wisdom and diligence, and tempered by patience and caution, and leavened but a little with boldness. 10. Let thy bets be well within thy means: he that maketh his fortune in a week loseth his ducats in a day.

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WHAT NOT TO DO Those who have a bet on every race, on every day of the week Those who back horses because they like their names Those who back jockeys’ tips Those who double up on the selections of a racing journalist when he is out of luck Those who plunge on a horse because they know somebody who knows somebody else whose kitchen maid is walking out with a lad in the stable where the certainty is sheltered

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RACING POST ROYAL ASCOT RULES Respect horses with previous course form – Paul Kealy Concentrate on unravelling two or at most three - races per day – Mel Cullinan Don’t rely on horses coming into their own with, or being found out by, the stiff finish. It isn’t there any more – Richard Austin Pile in again if your selection drifts – Pietro Innocenzi

1. Provided that nine or more run in the Derby back the second and third each time they run the same season. 2. In the City & Suburban and Great Metropolitan, if 16 or 17 run, follow the winner until it wins again, and the second until it wins or loses twice. If more than 17 run, follow both the winner and second until they win again or until the end of the season. 3. Follow the next season, twice only, all that start at less than 20/1 in the Atlantic Stakes at the Liverpool July meeting. 4. In the Wokingham Stakes back the first five in the betting next time out only, provided at least 12 ran. 5. Follow the next season, twice only, the winner of any race at Epsom, provided that there were 17 or more runners. 6. Also follow twice only, the next season, any horse that ran second in a field of 19 or more in any race at Epsom.

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7. Back the two horses that are second and fourth in the betting forecast of your mid-day paper. If you want to bet in one race a day take the principal race only, but always keep to the principal race. No bet if there are less than seven runners. 8. Any horse which runs first, second or third, and runs again within eight days (excluding Sundays), is to be backed each-way. Should it lose, but get placed, back it once more. 9. Back every horse that has run second the last time out. If it wins never make it a loser till it does lose [I didn’t invent this system! GS] then do not back it again until it gets second. 10. Back the most tipped horse in the fourth race of the day up to August 1. After August 1, back the most tipped horse in the last race of the day up to November. During November you back the second most tipped horse in the last race of the day. 11. [Those who remember serial losers, Amrullah and Quixall Crossett should look away now! – GS] When a horse has run ten times without winning, and is still in the same stable, follow it with a small stake each time it runs. If there are more than one in a race, back the lot, as the prices are always big. You can afford to follow each and increase slightly after each failure, as you missed them during their long run of ten losing races. 12. Back the favourite of the second and last race at the Principal Meeting each day. Commence with a stake of £1 then double up on both races until a winner. Each race must be worked separately. 13. The world’s simplest system – and certainly one of the best – is to support nonhandicap favourites, especially in the second half of the fl at racing season.

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14. Select the non-handicap race with the smallest field, provided that the forecast favourite is at odds against and there are six or more runners. The system bet is two points on the favourite and one point on the second favourite. 15. There are several ways of picking out likely horses for trebles. SP favourites will appeal to the majority. One suggestion is that the SP favourites in three non-handicap races be chosen daily. 16. Pay special attention to the favourites in two-yearold non-sellers. 17. This system operates on the Classics only and can claim 17 winning seasons in the last 21 (as of 1950). The plan is as follows: Back the (named) favourite in the 2000 Guineas. If this does not win, back the favourite in the 1000 Guineas. If this fails to win, back the favourite in the Derby, and so on until a winner turns up. Use the following simple plan: one point First Classic; two points Second Classic; four points Third Classic; six points Fourth Classic; nine points Fifth Classic. 18. The winners of important or very open handicaps are often fourth or fifth quotations (newspaper SP forecasts). 19. The system horse in any five furlong race is the highest-weighted winner last time out. If there are no runners which won last time out, the highest-weighted second is chosen. If there are no qualifying seconds, the highest-weighted third is supported. Never more than one horse per race is backed, for in the event of there being two horses that won or were placed last time out and both are equally weighted, the race is void. 20. From all horses in the race (handicap) who were placed second or third last time they ran, take the one carrying the most weight and the one carrying the least. Of these two back the one with the more recent placing, PROVIDED there is a horse in the race who won on his previous outing and who is not carrying LESS weight than the TOP WEIGHT 15 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com


[still following here? GS] of your seconds and thirds. It does not matter if there are other previous winners carrying LESS weight than the top weight [keep up now, GS] of your seconds and thirds, provided at least ONE previous winner is carrying equal or more weight. If there are two or more horses carrying most or least weight, take the one with most recent placing. If still a tie, decide on a second over a third. If still a tie, nothing is done on the race. Operate on only one meeting a day. [Simple, what? GS] 21. From the beginning of November, backers should support the SP favourites in chases of all lengths that are not handicap chases. These favourites do best in the period before Christmas. 22. Take the selection of a reliable correspondent or paper catering entirely for racing enthusiasts and back the first selection. If a loser, the next selection is backed and so on, until a winner is found. The betting stops at the first winner. 23. They say that January is a bad month for the backing of favourites. The system I have used in January (and later) with excellent results well deserves to be called a ‘Certainty’ system, yet the one rule is absurdly simple. It is this: Back the favourite in any type of race that has six runners or less. 24. Following a stable during the jumping season can be profitable. Small stables are better to follow than large ones for the reason that the smaller trainers, whose very living depends on getting winners for their clients, do not throw away entry fees or incur travelling expenses on horses that have not outstanding chances of winning. Choose a small one – or two – and stick to the stable entries. You will be on the jobs that are readied. 25. Best races for favourites ‘over the sticks’… Cheltenham: Hawling Hurdle; Cirencester Chase; Tewkesbury Chase; Gotherington Novices Hurdle. Liverpool: 16 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com


Champion Chase; Valentine Chase; Liverpool Foxhunters’ Chase. Sandown: Chertsey Chase; Lilac Open Chase; Warren Chase; Withington Chase; Grand Military Hunters’ Chase. 26. Follow all those that start at 20/1 or less in the Stewards’ Cup; the first in the betting back next time out only. The others, back until they win, or lose five times. 27. Keep a list of the naps given by any number of newspaper informants. After, say, six days, look over your records and back the nap of the informant who has lost most in succession. 28. Select a six-furlong event, choose the most valuable. The selection is the latest WINNER last time out, providing it has not missed any engagements since winning. If no winner, turn to SECONDS; and if no seconds, to THIRDS; if nothing discovered, pass over the day’s racing. 29. On course method: Back all horses in twoyear-old non selling races and three-yearold Maiden Races which start odds on, for Place only, providing there are at least five runners, with Minimum Stake. 30. Back any horse for the next two outings that has been the medium of a ‘Job’ and been beaten, providing it runs second or third. Only take horses that ‘fall’ at least six points from the price quoted in betting forecasts. 31. Back all horses which won the previous day at any meeting. Should two system horses run in the same race the bet should be worded to back either if only one runs, but if both run NO bet. 32. During the months of March, April and May take the first horse down which won on either of its last two outings in the first five-furlong race down the programme, if no race 17 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com


of this distance take the six furlong, then the seven furlong. Should there be two races or more which qualify take the one with most runners. 33. For June take the selling race and if more than one take the most valuable, if of same value take shortest distance. To find the horse take the one which was second in either of its last three outings, working upwards from the bottom of the race. 34. For July take the first horse down in the first race which won on either of its last two outings, but preference is given to the horse which won last time out. If no horse qualifies in that race take the sixth race, then the fifth and so on until a horse qualifies. 35. For the month of August take the fifth horse down which won the last time out in the first race. Should one fail to qualify take the first horse down which won last time out in the last race. No race to be taken with less than seven runners and if more than one meeting, take the most important. 36. For September take the first horse down the programme which won either of its last three outings previous to the last time out, and if more than one meeting, take the most important. 37. For the months of October and November take the first horse down which won either of its last three outings in the last race at the most important meeting. If no horse won take the first horse which was second in either of its last three outings; failing that, take the horse which was third in the last three outings. 38. Back the horse carrying the most weight of those placed last time out this year, but which is receiving NOT LESS THAN five pounds FROM THE TOP WEIGHT – but if only one horse is so placed, three pounds qualifies. 39. From the runners in each race select those finishing first or second last time out. Take away from these any quoted in the betting forecast of the early morning papers at less 18 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com


than 2/1. This will probably leave a sole selection to be backed each way. If two or more remain back the one best placed last time out or invest to win only on each. 40. Back the first and second favourites in every race. Each horse should be backed with a level stake but after a losing week [Just the one? – GS] the stakes for the following week should be increased by one quarter, coming back to the original stakes when a profit is shown. 41. List all horses that win races of six or more runners of from one mile to one mile and a quarter by four lengths or more. If two or more run in the same race back the one that won by the greatest number of lengths. 42. Select a two-year-old race and if the first horse mentioned in the betting forecast is more than 3/1, the horse to qualify is the second. 43. List two-year-olds beaten a neck or head in a field of ten or more. Follow all horses with a level stake the next time out until the animal in question is beaten. If two horses to be backed run in the same race back the one with most recent form. 44. Have three bets per week and stake as follows: £1 to win, the treble; £1 to win, three cross doubles; £1 to win, each horse singly. The choice of the horses rests with the backer. 45. Take six reputable [That’s the end of that system! – GS] sporting journalists attached to daily papers. Make a note of their daily naps and do not begin to bet until six consecutive losers have been given by one tipster. Then follow him until a winner turns up or four consecutive losers are backed. If more than three tipsters nap the same horse, ignore it, as the price is likely to be short.

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46. List all first favourites placed second in fields of eight or more and beaten by not more than one and a half lengths. Back these next time out irrespective of the date when listed, provided they give six pounds or over away. 47. List all winners of £1,000 races or over [suggest rather heftier value these days, GS]. Back them next time out, also the time after, provided the weight is not increased by more than three pounds for every length the horse won by. 48. Choose two races in each of which the issue seems fairly clearly to rest with three horses. Suppose horses are A, B, C in one race and D, E, F in the other. Double them as follows – A.D., A.E., A.F., B.D., B.E., B.F., C.D., C.F. Try this, the WINS will surprise you. 49. Note the ‘most tipped’ horse of the day from the summary of any mid-day sporting paper. When the indicated horse has lost twice consecutively back the horse indicated on the third and fourth days only. If the horse wins on third day, ignore the fourth day’s indication and wait for two more ‘most tipped’ horses. 50. The last system Wood recommended in his legendary 100 World Famous Racing Systems (price 20 shillings – or, to you, a quid) is presumably his least favourite, or perhaps his most favourite, thus signing off with a fl ourish. Decide for yourself – and use it at your peril… ‘Horses backed are the ‘most tipped’ in each race obtained from newspaper summaries. The prices in the papers are halved, say Campanula is 9/2 you call this 9/4 [with him so far? GS]. To win £1 you would put 9 shillings [45 pence] on, and if this loses you back the next horse to win £1 and your 9 shilling loss. Each time you lose you add your loss to the amount you desire to win. When you get a winner, start again. Do not bet on the Flat for first three weeks of the season. Start at commencement of the 20 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com


Hurdle season. For one bet per day the most tipped horse in the last race, if absent, the next most tipped and carry on until a winning balance.’ [See you in the Poor House!! GS]

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MODERN METHODS Keep an eye out for bookie incentives for opening accounts – particularly when big meetings are on. Free bets, concessions, match-bets, special offers abound. Check the small print of your credit card – some providers have begun charging a fee for online betting transactions. If you do fall foul of the above ‘take on’, ring the customer service line and plead ignorance – you’ll probably get the fee refunded (I did!) – but only once. Use close family members who never bet and have no interest in it to get more than one go at concession offers. Consult websites like freebets.co.uk to keep tabs on special offers. Don’t be afraid to follow your heart as well as your head. The idea of backing a horse because you want it to win rather than because you think it will win is derided by “serious” punters. But when you do win there is an extra lustre. Your soul is replenished, as well as your pocket. I backed Uncle Ernie, 20-1 winner of the 1997 Grand Annual at Cheltenham, because he was one of my favourite chasers, and because a few weeks earlier he had licked me when I visited Jimmy Fitzgerald’s Malton yard to pay my respects. If you think you might back a horse but are in two minds about whether to have the bet or not, make the bet. I have never got over changing my mind about I Cried For You, just before the 2001 Cambridgeshire. As I waited for the bookmaker to answer the phone I overheard the Channel 4 Racing pundits sowing seeds of doubt regarding whether James Given’s gelding, a proven sevenfurlong horse, would stay the nine-furlong trip. I put 22 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com


down the phone without making the bet, and the form book tells how I Cried For You “was travelling embarrassingly easily entering the Dip and found plenty under pressure” before running out the easy winner at 33-1. Sheer agony. I decided there and then that the pain of backing a loser is as nothing to the torture of missing a good winner. Read the Damon Runyon story “A Nice Price”, in which the gambler Sam the Gonoph learns that one bookmaker is quoting Yale at 1-3 to win the annual rowing race against Harvard: “I do not know anything about boat races,” Sam says, “and the Yales may figure as you say, but nothing between human beings is one to three. In fact,” Sam the Gonoph says, “I long ago come to the conclusion that all life is six to five against.” Sam’s observation that all life is 6-5 against is one of the most famous of betting quotes (right up there with the psychiatrist friend of Jeffrey Bernard who described betting as “collecting injustices”), but for a punter the insight that nothing between human beings is 1-3 can prove profitable when scanning the sports betting pages. Liverpool v. Barnsley and Barnsley v. Chelsea in the 2008 F.A. Cup come readily to mind as examples. Politics can prove a wonderful betting medium – not because rank outsiders often win a political contest, but because by their very nature political fortunes flip-flop, and you can regularly manoeuvre yourself into the joyous position of having backed each of two at odds against. The trick is being able to detect a change in the political weather and strike at the optimum time. A week before the 1992 general election one bookmaker had Neil Kinnock-led Labour at 1-4, with John Major’s Conservatives on 5-2. With two days to go a Kinnock victory looked even more certain, and the same firm went 1-6 Labour, 72 Conservatives. Those with their ears to the ground sensed a late swing to the Tories in the wake of Labour’s notorious Sheffield rally, and many political savants made a killing by lumping on before the bookmakers got the message. 23 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com


When betting on a horse race, always check the Tote price of your fancy before making the bet. Cases abound where the joy of backing a long-priced winner is shattered by the realization that a simple glance at the Tote odds might have brought a much bigger return. Imagine this: you’re at Cheltenham in March 2008 and you fancy a small flutter on Mister McGoldrick for the Racing Post Plate; you have a tenner with a course bookmaker at 66-1, which turns out to be Mister McGoldrick’s starting price; he wins unchallenged; you’re on Cloud Nine as you trouser the £670 – then plummet through the cloud when you see that the Tote win return is £147, or 146-1, fully 80 points – 80 points! – better than SP. Always give due consideration to a horse which has won the race in question before, whatever his recent form – and especially if the race has an unusual feature. For example, the Gold Cup at Ascot is the only top-flight contest of the Flat season in Britain run over 2½ miles, and given its extreme long distance it is no surprise that the race has produced plenty of dual winners and, in the great Sagaro and Yeats, two triple winners. Royal Rebel, 8-1 winner of the Gold Cup in 2001, seemed to have lost his form on the runup to the following year’s renewal, but there was obviously something about this eccentric contest which brought out the best in him, and he beat the great Vinnie Roe a neck at 16-1.

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