July 2012
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Beyond Green Developments Ltd (July 2012)
North Sprowston & Old Catton– Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
QA North Sprowston & Old Catton – Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment
Issue/Revision:
V2
Final
Date:
21 July 2012
29 August 2012
Elizabeth Milimuka
Elizabeth Milimuka
Dr Steven Norris
Dr Steven Norris
101104
101104
Comments:
Prepared by:
Signature:
Authorised by:
Signature:
File Reference:
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Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
CONTENTS 1.0
2.0
3.0
INTRODUCTION
1
THE PROPOSAL
1
REPORT STRUCTURE
4
POLICY FRAMEWORK
6
NATIONAL PLANNING POLICY FRAMEWORK
6
‘Main Town Centre’ Uses
7
JOINT CORE STRATEGY
7
(REPLACEMENT) LOCAL PLAN SAVED POLICIES
9
EMERGING DEVELOPMENT PLAN
9
IMPACT ASSESSMENT
11
ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
11
Primary Catchment Area
11
Population Forecasts
11
Expenditure Forecasts
13
Total Available Expenditure
14
Estimated Turnover of Proposed Floorspace
15
Market Share from Total Expenditure
16
Higher Occupancy Rate: Sensitivity Testing
16
Summary
17
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON PLANNED AND COMMITTED PRIVATE INVESTMENT 17 POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TOWN CENTRE VITALITY, VIABILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE AND TRADE
18
Old Catton – The Paddocks
19
Spixworth Village Centre
20
Sprowston Local Centre
21
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
Anglia Square
21
Blue Boar Lane, Sprowston
21
NORWICH CITY CENTRE
22
SUMMARY
23
4.0
SEQUENTIAL ASSESSMENT
25
5.0
THE QUALITATIVE NEED FOR NEW SHOPPING FACILITIES
28
6.0
CONCLUSION
30
7.0
GLOSSARY & ABBREVIATIONS
32
APPENDIX 1: PRIMARY CATCHMENT AREA APPENDIX 2: CONVENIENCE GOODS RETAIL CAPACITY ASSESSMENT APPENDIX 3: COMPARISON GOODS RETAIL CAPACITY ASSESSMENT APPENDIX 4: HIGHER OCCUPANCY RATE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 5: EXPERIAN POPULATION AND EXPENDITURE REPORTS FOR PRIMARY CATCHMENT AREA
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Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1
This impact assessment has been prepared by Planning Perspectives LLP for Beyond Green Developments Ltd. to support an application for a new residential and mixed use sustainable urban extension in Broadland District, on the north-east edge of Norwich, known as North Sprowston & Old Catton (NS&OC).
1.2
The study considers the main town centre uses proposed in light of relevant policy tests and guidance provided by the NPPF, Joint Core Strategy, ‘saved’ policies of the Local Plan and other relevant material considerations to be taken account of in the determination of this application.
THE PROPOSAL 1.3
NS&OC is conceived as a sustainable new community structured as an urban extension to the north east of Norwich. The applicant’s vision is for a series of new and extended neighbourhoods north of Sprowston that will offer the highest quality of life and lowest environmental footprint in Europe.
The overarching aim is to create a sustainable
mixed-use environment that enables more people to work, shop and access day-to-day services close to where they live. 1.4
The proposal consists of: • •
•
• • •
• • • • 1.5
Up to 3,520 residential dwellings, of which up to 33% will be affordable housing; Up to 16,800 sqm (GIA) of B1 and B2 commercial development comprising a mix of larger office buildings, smaller offices, studios and workshops that will generate some 800 jobs on-site; Up to 8,800 sqm (GIA) of flexible A1-A5 retail, service and leisure development including a foodstore of up to 1,500 sqm (net), small scale non-food retailing and a variety of complementary cafes, restaurants, pubs and other facilities up to two small hotels of up to 1,000 sqm (GIA) combined; Up to 5,000 sqm (NIA) of education uses comprising two new primary schools; Up to 2,000 sqm (NIA) of other community facilities including two multi-use community spaces, a library, a primary care centre and 4-5 nurseries and creches; An energy centre; New formal and informal open space including lay and recreational areas; New and retained natural and semi-natural space; and Four accesses to the highway network.
A fundamental design premise of the proposed development is the “walkable neighbourhood,” encouraging residents and visitors to live sustainably by providing a range of necessary facilities and amenities within easy distance of their homes and places of work.
1.6
To serve the neighbourhoods proposed as part of this urban extension, five “activity centres” are proposed which incorporate a concentration of various mixed-use activities and facilities to serve the everyday needs of proposed residents, such as shopping, socialising and accessing public services. These consist of one main local
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Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
centre around the proposed Main Square, a secondary local activity centre closest to Wroxham Road serving the neighbourhood to the west of the scheme, the addition of new retail linkages to Old Catton District Centre, a small scale parade at Church lane South and a cluster of rurally-based business activities at Red Hall Farm which will incorporate a parade-level of retail. 1.7
The main town centre uses proposed (including office, retail, service and office space) are distributed amongst these proposed “activity centres” according to Table 1.1. Table 1.1 Proposed mix of uses across “activity centres” (sqm GIA) “Activity Centre”
Employment
Retail/Service (A1-A5)
Community Uses
Hotel
Education
Main Square
Up to 9,000
Up to 7,500
Up to 1,500
Up to 1,000
Up to 2,500
Wroxham Road Square
Up to 9,000
Up to 1,000
Up to 500
Up to 1,000
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Church Lane South
Up to 500 (with no more than 100 sqm each allocated for use as either pub or retail space)
Red Hall Farm
Up to 1,000
Up to 500
n/a
Old Catton
n/a
Up to 500 (with no unit larger than 100 sqm)
n/a
Up to 2,500
Total
Up to 16,800
Up to 8,800
Up to 1,000
Up to 5,000
Up to 2,000
Source: Beyond Green Social and Economic Development Statement.
1.8
With respect to retail, it is envisaged that the Main Square will take the form of a traditional ‘High Street’ shopping experience as the focus for new retail, service and community facilities to serve the local population’s day-to-day needs. The proposed Main Square will be anchored by a foodstore of circa 1,500 sqm (net) which will provide the critical mass and product offer to draw food shopping trips and activity from the proposed development. This will help to generate the necessary level of dayto-day trips, expenditure and linked trips to other shops and facilities to help underpin the overall vitality and viability of this “activity centre”.
1.9
The anchor foodstore will represent the key component of the first phase of the proposed High Street, as it will help to underpin the commercial and economic viability of the whole mixed use development.
It will help to attract other operators and
businesses needed to create a successful and viable centre at the heart of the local community.
In terms of location, it will be in a prominent position that is well
connected to other shops, businesses and facilities in order to maximise the potential for linked trips and footfall, probably in either block MS07 or MS08.
The store will
have a highly visible frontage onto the High Street.
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1.10
The remainder of proposed retail and service floorspace proposed in the Main Square will be comprised of up to 6,000sqm of smaller units (ranging from 50sqm – 250sqm GIA each) which are flexibly earmarked for A1 non-food and other complementary A2A5 uses such as would be found in a vital mixed-use centre.
1.11
A secondary shopping street is proposed off Wroxham Road to the east, around Wroxham Square, along with smaller neighbourhood shops and stores at Church Lane South and Red Hall Farm. Floorspace here will be of a smaller scale and will support the top-up facilities required to support an active community and to serve the day to day needs of the local population and daytime employment population.
1.12
For the purpose of this assessment, and to be robust, we have assumed that the proposal will contain a maximum of 2,840 sqm (GIA) of convenience floorspace and 2,000 sqm (GIA) of comparison goods floorspace.
However, it is important to note
that a key element of the scheme is the development of adaptable buildings such as townhouses in and around the central areas of the scheme to allow change of use over time, and the retention of ownership and/or use of short leases to preserve flexibility and allow the amount of retail/commercial uses to flex according to demand. This physical framework will help prevent the scheme being locked into a “predict-andprovide” approach to retail and simulate the gradual change over time characteristic of successful traditional high streets. At the same time, the need to apply for change of use consents will ensure there is appropriate planning control of that evolutionary process. This will also enable the Main Square area to grow and evolve into a district centre if so designated in the proposed Broadland Growth Triangle Area Action Plan or a later policy framework. 1.13
Forty five per cent of the total proposed retail offer (circa 3,960 sqm GIA) is proposed within the development for additional service and leisure facilities (Class A2-A5) to complement and support the role and function of the proposed activity centres. This is informed by the ‘benchmark’ average floorspace mix of all UK retail centres audited by Experian Goad. These proposed uses will be concentrated primarily in the Main Square and Wroxham Road and will help to diversify the range of activities in the activity centres and help contribute to a vital and healthy mix of uses.
1.14
Overall a maximum of 8,800 sqm (GIA) of retail and service floorspace is proposed. Table 1.2 shows the proposed split between convenience, comparison and service floorspace.
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
Table 1.2 Maximum Floorspace Proposals by 2030 (sqm, GIA) Convenience
Proposal
1.15
2,840 (32%)
Comparison
2,000 (23%)
Professional and Leisure Services
TOTAL RETAIL & SERVICE FLOORSPACE
(A2 – A5)
(A1 – A5)
3,960 (45%)
8,800
With respect to office floorspace, the proposal will have a particular focus on nurturing small and distinctive enterprises and providing premises for businesses in the heart of the community, differentiating the offer from the business-park-type condition of strategic employment sites. The proposed floorspace will consist of a mix of adaptable and sub-divisible commercial buildings, smaller office and studio units in ‘converted’ townhouses, and homeworking units. It is proposed that the Main Square will accommodate a more substantial, larger-floorplate office and/or civic building designed to bring an element of grandeur to the square and contribute to a sense of place and community. Due to its highly accessible location and proximity to large-scale land uses such as the proposed energy centre, up to 9,000 sqm of office-based employment is proposed at Wroxham Road Square.
1.16
This level of office floorspace will provide an opportunity for local employment, contribute to a healthy mix of uses and ensure that there is a footfall around the centre throughout the daytime period. Business space will be marketed to potential occupiers in sectors where there is a good fit between the underlying business activity and the ethos of the development. The focus is on the SME sector and where there is an ethical and brand affinity with the purpose of the development to create a high quality of life and low environmental footprint, including a willingness to work with local supply chain initiatives, workplace travel planning and sustainable sourcing and waste management.
1.17
The job opportunities will be of interest to people living in both the new development and existing locals living in parts of Old Catton and Sprowston.
REPORT STRUCTURE 1.18
4
This assessment is structured as follows: •
Section 2.0 reviews the policy framework to be taken into consideration when determining the main town centre uses proposed as part of the development;
•
Section 3.0 considers the potential impact of relevant main town centre uses proposed in light of our assessment of the forecast residual retail (convenience and comparison) expenditure capacity available to support new retail floorspace within the scheme;
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Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
•
Section 4.0 assesses whether there are any sequentially preferable sites for the proposed main town centre uses; and
•
Section 5.0 assesses the proposal in light of the qualitative need for new retail, service and office floorspace to meet the needs of the local resident population for day-to-day shopping, financial, service and other requirements.
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
2.0 POLICY FRAMEWORK NATIONAL PLANNING POLICY FRAMEWORK 2.1
The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published on 27th March 2012 and is a material consideration in the determination of planning applications. It sets out the planning policies for England and how these are expected to be applied.
2.2
At the heart of the NPPF is a presumption in favour of sustainable development, which should be seen as “a golden thread running through both plan-making and decisiontaking” (paragraph 14).
2.3
The policies in the NPPF constitute the Government’s view of what sustainable development in England means in practice for the planning system. There are “three dimensions” to sustainable development – economic, social and environmental. To achieve sustainable development, economic, social and environmental gains should be sought jointly and simultaneously through the planning system. The planning system therefore has to perform a number of roles to support sustainable development: •
•
•
2.4
an economic role – contributing to building a strong, responsive and competitive economy, by ensuring that sufficient land of the right type is available in the right places and at the right time to support growth and innovation; a social role – supporting strong, vibrant and healthy communities, by providing the supply of housing required to meet the needs of present and future generations; and by creating a high quality built environment, with accessible local services that reflect the community’s needs and support its health, social and cultural well-being; and an environmental role – contributing to protecting and enhancing our natural, built and historic environment; and, as part of this, helping to improve biodiversity, use natural resources prudently, minimise waste and pollution, and mitigate and adapt to climate change including moving to a low carbon economy.
Within the overarching roles that the planning system ought to play, the NPPF sets out 12 core land-use planning principles should underpin both plan-making and decisiontaking (paragraph 17). These principles state that planning should, inter alia: • • • • •
•
•
6
proactively drive and support sustainable economic development; always seek to secure high quality design and a good standard of amenity for all existing and future occupants of land and buildings; support the transition to a low carbon future in a changing climate; contribute to conserving and enhancing the natural environment and reducing pollution; promote mixed use developments, and encourage multiple benefits from the use of land in urban and rural areas, recognising that some open land can perform many functions; actively manage patterns of growth to make the fullest possible use of public transport, walking and cycling, and focus significant development in locations which are or can be made sustainable; and take account of and support local strategies to improve health, social and cultural wellbeing for all, and deliver sufficient community and cultural facilities and services to meet local needs.
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2.5
In order to deliver a strong and competitive economy, the NPPF states that planning should operate “…to encourage and not act as an impediment to sustainable growth” and “…significant weight should be placed on the need to support economic growth through the planning system” (paragraph 19). To help achieve economic growth, LPAs should “…plan proactively to meet the development needs of business and support an economy fit for the 21st century” (paragraph 20).
‘Main Town Centre’ Uses 2.6
The NPPF defines ‘main town centre uses’ as including retail development; leisure and entertainment facilities (including restaurants, bars, pubs and health and fitness centres);
offices
and
culture
and
tourism development (including
hotels
and
conference facilities). 2.7
When considering applications for main town centre uses that are not in an existing centre and not in accordance with an up-to-date Local Plan, the NPPF states that LPAs should: •
•
2.8
require an impact assessment – if the development is over a proportionate, floorspace threshold (2,500 sqm if not set lower by the Local Authority). This should include assessment of: o the impact of the proposal on existing, committed and planned public and private investment in a centre or centres in the catchment area of the proposal; and o the impact of the proposal on town centre vitality and viability, including local consumer choice and trade in the town centre and wider area. For major schemes where the full impact will not be realised in five years, the impact should be assessed at five and ten years from the time the application is made. apply a sequential test - LPAs should require applications for main town centre uses to be located in town centres, then in edge-of-centre locations and only if suitable sites are not available should out-of-centre sites be considered. When considering edge of centre and out of centre proposals, “…preference should be given to accessible sites that are well connected to the town centre” (paragraph 24). Applicants and LPAs should demonstrate flexibility on issues such as format and scale.
Where an application fails to satisfy the sequential test or is likely to have a “significant adverse impact” on one or more of the above factors, it should be refused (paragraph 27).
JOINT CORE STRATEGY 2.9
The adopted Development Plan consists of the Joint Core Strategy (JCS), which was undertaken on behalf of the Greater Norwich Development Partnership (GNDP) and covers the administrative areas of Broadland, Norwich, South Norwich and the Broads. The NPPF states that for 12 months from the day of publication, decision-takers may continue to give full weight to relevant policies adopted since 2004, even if there is a limited degree of conflict with this Framework (paragraph 214). adopted in March 2011, full weight must be given to its policies.
As the JCS was
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2.10
Policy 9 of the JCS states that the Norwich Policy Area (NPA) is the focus for major growth and development and identifies a housing requirement for 21,000 new dwellings over the development plan period. The JCS identifies locations for the distribution of a proportion of this need (12,000 dwellings) across the GNDP area. However, the distribution of the remaining requirement for 9,000 new dwellings has not yet been identified. This application will deliver a significant proportion (circa 40%) of this remaining requirement and play an important role in delivering housing targets for the area.
2.11
The retail hierarchy is set by Policy 19 which identifies Norwich City Centre at the highest level of the hierarchy, followed by 6 town and large district centres (including Anglia Square/Magdalen Street), 18 large village and district centres (of which 11 are District Centres within the Norwich Urban area, including Old Catton) and a number of local centres including new and enhanced local centres servicing major growth locations.
2.12
The JCS recognises that Greater Norwich has the region’s largest economy and is the highest ranking retail centre. The vision for Norwich is to continue to build on its importance for key economic sectors and, in particular, expand its comparison retail floorspace. The Main Towns, Key Service Centres and Service Villages will continue to be focal points for communities to have better access to quality jobs, healthcare, education and community facilities and shops.
2.13
Importantly, the JCS also recognises that “proposed large-scale housing areas will provide for shops and services to meet local needs where they are not able to benefit from existing centres” (paragraph 6.77).
2.14
With respect to retail capacity, the JCS recognises that the 2007 Sub-Regional Retail and Town Centre Study (NSRTCS) forecasts significant capacity for new comparison goods floorspace (up to 39,395 sqm net by 2016 in the Norwich Urban Area, growing to 70,361 sqm net by 2021). However, due to uncertainty in the economic market, the JCS takes a cautious approach and sets out a lower requirement for 20,000 sqm (net) of comparison goods floorspace to be provided by 2016, with future need subject to monitoring. Over and above this identified capacity requirement, the JCS roles forward the recommendation for an additional 15% (circa 3,000sqm) of new floorspace for new service related developments such as new cafes, restaurants and bars. With respect to convenience floorspace, the JCS references a modest requirement for new convenience goods floorspace which it states will largely be accommodated for by the proposed redevelopment of Anglia Square.
2.15
The JCS also identifies a significant need for new office floorspace (250,000 sqm) across the GNDP area, which is directed to Norwich city centre (100,000 sqm), Norwich Research Park and Broadland Business Park (paragraph 6.10).
This
requirement is carried forward from the Greater Norwich Employment Growth Study
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(September 2008), which identified more than 370,000 sqm (circa 4 million sqft) of office stock in Norwich and a “significant latent demand for city centre space.”
(REPLACEMENT) LOCAL PLAN SAVED POLICIES 2.16
The Broadland District Local Plan (Replacement) was adopted in May 2006. Although the intention is for the emerging Development Framework to replace the Local Plan, a number of policies that were ‘saved’ by the Secretary of State in 2009 remain in force and are therefore a material consideration in the determination of planning applications.
2.17
Of particular relevance to the present application, Policy SH02 sets out the retail hierarchy within Broadland District. Within the Norwich Policy Area, Old Catton and Thorpe St Andrew are defined as District Centres which function as “the providers of goods and services that meet people’s day to day needs.”
2.18
Policy SH03 defines local and village centres in the District. In the north of Norwich Urban Area, identified centres include Spixworth Village Centre and Sprowston Centre.
2.19
Policy SH04 states that no specific provision is made for additional major convenience goods floorspace. Proposals for additional floorspace will only be permitted if they demonstrate a qualitative and quantitative need, are consistent with the sequential approach, do not undermine any plans for new investment, can be accessed by a range of transport, will not significantly harm the vitality or viability of existing shopping centres, and do not involve the loss of employment land.
2.20
Policy SPR10 identifies a site of approximately 12 ha to the north and north east of the existing Tesco on Blue Boar Lane for comprehensive development including residential, recreational open space, up to 1.2 ha of business use, small scale local shopping facilities and a community centre, communal parking, landscaping and vehicular access. The site was allocated for a mix of land uses in the previous Local Plan. Outline planning permission was granted in 2006. Policy SH02 included the promotion of the area to District Centre upon implementation of the proposal, however the permission has now lapsed and there has been no further progress here.
EMERGING DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2.21
The Joint Core Strategy is the only development plan document which applies jointly to other authorities. Broadland District Council is preparing supporting Development Plan Documents which will need to be in conformity with the JCS and will help direct new development in the District.
2.22
The Council consulted on the Issues and Options stage of its Development Management DPD between September and December 2011.
Progression of this
document is currently on hold, with the Preferred Option timetabled for consultation in
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
June 2013, followed by publication of the pre-submission draft in February 2014 and adoption in late 2014. 2.23
The Council is also currently consulting on Alternative Sites for Potential Development as part of their emerging Site Allocations DPD. Consultation closes in August 2012 and no dates are yet set for further consultation.
2.24
Broadland had also previously undertaken work towards preparation of a Growth Triangle Area Action Plan, which would have managed the accommodation of 7,000 new homes in the north east of Norwich by 2026, rising to 10,000 thereafter. However, a successful legal challenge in February 2012 has subsequently required remittance of all references to the growth triangle in the JCS. It is important to note that the judge did not challenge the scale of growth required in the Greater Norwich area and considered that the preferred option was properly assessed. Rather, the judge concluded that the Strategic Environmental Assessment carried out did not properly explain the alternatives to the North East Growth Triangle or examine the alternatives to the same extent as the preferred option.
We understand a new
Sustainability Appraisal is being prepared (more detail is set out in the Planning Support Statement accompanying the planning application).
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3.0 IMPACT ASSESSMENT 3.1
Although, as described above, the scale and mix of main town centre uses proposed are designed to contribute to “walkable neighbourhoods� and will therefore primarily serve residents of the development and local area, the site is located outside of a designated centre. The proposed retail and office elements of the proposal are also above the nationally set threshold of 2,500 sqm (net). Therefore, to be strictly in accordance with the NPPF and adopted local policy, this assessment considers the potential impact of the proposal on existing, committed and planned public and private investment in centres in the catchment area of the proposal and the potential impact on town centre vitality and viability, including on local consumer choice and trade.
3.2
As described above, the development In accordance with the NPPF and related Good Practice Guidance relating to main town centre uses, the assessment considers the baseline position (2012), design year (2015), as well as five (2020), ten (2025) and fifteen (2030) after years after implementation of the scheme in order to assess the impact of the proposal over time.
ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Primary Catchment Area 3.3
The first step towards assessing the potential impact of the proposed floorspace is to understand the realistic catchment area for the new development. The proposal will primarily serve the residents of the proposed urban extension. However, it is recognised that the proposed shops and services will also be accessible to existing households within the wider local area. The Primary Catchment Area (PCA) proposed has therefore been informed by the accessibility and proximity of existing residences and facilities to the proposed development. Although the PCA is not based strictly on drive-times, the majority of the area is within five minutes of the proposal site.
3.4
Whilst it is clear that the scheme’s proposed shops and services would only draw a proportion of trips and expenditure from the PCA, there are parts of this area for which the new centre will be a more sustainable destination. As such, we consider that the PCA represents a realistic and appropriate assessment area in the consideration of proposed new retail and service facilities.
3.5
The extent of the PCA is shown on Plan 1 (Appendix 1).
Population Forecasts 3.6
The proposal consists of up to 3,520 dwellings. The average household size and derived forecast population rate is shown in Table 3.1.
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
Table 3.1 Type & Size of Proposed Dwellings, Average Household Size and Population Forecasts Number of Units
Average Household Size
Forecast Population
1-bed flat
279
1.2
338
2-bed flat
298
1.3
393
3-bed flat
66
1.8
117
2-bed house
840
1.8
1,493
3-bed house
1,240
2.5
3,089
798
2.8
2,225
3,520
2.2
7,655
4+ bed house TOTAL:
Source: Social and Economic Development Study Please note that figures may not sum due to rounding.
3.7
The table shows that, based on 3,520 new dwellings and a conservative estimate of household of circa 2.2 persons per household, the proposal area could have a total resident population of around 7,655 people. Adopting a higher average household size would further increase the proposed population and amount of available expenditure as a result of the proposal. To demonstrate this, Appendix 4 shows the additional expenditure which could be generated by the proposal if we assume there will be an average of 2.4 persons per household, all other assumptions being equal.
3.8
For the purpose of our retail assessment we have assumed a 15-20 year build out, with half of new dwellings occupied by 2020, three quarters occupied by 2025 and the remainder by 2030. However, it is a requirement for the new retail floorspace to be developed as part of the first phase of the residential development in order to support overall delivery of the scheme. As a result, the 2030 scenario should be the primary consideration when assessing the potential impact of the proposal.
3.9
It must be stated that the proposed main town centre uses would not have a disproportionately more significant impact on existing centres and stores outside of the proposal prior to the occupation of all proposed residential dwellings because the share of expenditure “diverted” to the proposal from the PCA is not linked to occupation of the residential units. Rather, it is normal for first phase retail uses to trade below company benchmarks until such time as the development is fully completed and able to sustain expected trading levels. This is acknowledged by the Practice Guidance on Need, Impact and the Sequential Approach, which recognises that “a retailer may be content with accepting a lower turnover level for a new store than their company average in order to gain representation in an area” (paragraph D.14).
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Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
3.10
Table 1 (Appendices 2 and 3) shows the total forecast population for the proposal and the wider PCA based on the Experian ‘Retail Expenditure and Population Report’ (see Appendix 5). This is reproduced in Table 3.2 below.
Table 3.2 Population Projections for the Beyond Green scheme and PCA Year
Proposal
Wider PCA
Total
2012
0
17,948
17,948
2015
1,914
18,505
20,419
2020
3,828
19,444
23,272
2025
5,741
20,481
26,222
2030
7,655
21,444
29.099
Source: see Table 1 (Appendices 2 & 3) and Appendix 5.
Expenditure Forecasts 3.11
The assessment of the average retail (convenience and comparison goods) expenditure per capital levels for the forecast population of the scheme and the wider PCA has *
been informed by the latest Experian ‘Retail Expenditure and Population Reports’ . Within the scheme, the average (yearly) expenditure is taken to be equivalent of the 2012 UK average (in 2010 prices), which is £1,912 for convenience goods and £2,989 for comparison goods. This is considered to be a robust and conservative estimate, bearing in mind the quality and type of the residential units included in the proposal. Within the PCA, the Experian per capita expenditure levels in 2012 (in 2010 prices) are slightly lower at £1,871 for convenience goods and £3,002 for comparison goods. 3.12
Our estimates of the potential growth in expenditure up to 2030 are informed by the latest forecasts produced by Experian Business Strategies (EBS) and Pitney Bowes (PB), which are widely used for retail studies and retail planning assessments. In this case we have assumed an average convenience growth rate of 0.5% between 2012 and 2018, growing slightly to 0.6% up to 2030. For comparison goods, we have assumed a growth rate of 3.0% between 2012 and 2018, growing to 4.0% up to 2030.
3.13
In accordance with standard approaches, we have made an allowance for ‘special forms of trading’ (SFT refers to non-store purchases, such as mail order and internet shopping) over the forecast period. We have assumed that SFT accounts for 2.3% of average convenience goods expenditure per capita levels in 2012, increasing to 3.3% by 2025 and 3.5% by 2030.
For comparison goods expenditure, we have assumed
* These are standard reports used for retail planning assessments and have been produced by Planning Perspectives using our in-house Experian MMG3 Geographic Information System (GIS). All expenditure and monetary figures are expressed in 2010 prices.
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
SFT accounts for 5.5% of average expenditure in 2012, plateauing at 6% between 2025 and 2030. 3.14
The table below summarises the total available convenience and comparison goods expenditure generated by the forecast population in the proposal area only (i.e. excluding expenditure in the wider PCA and from outside of the assessment area).
Table 3.3 Beyond Green scheme - Expenditure (£m) Year
Convenience Expenditure
Comparison Expenditure
2015
3.7
6.1
2020
7.5
14.7
2025
11.6
27.0
2030
15.9
43.8
Source: Appendices 2 and 3 (Table 3).
3.15
In addition to the above, Table 3 of Appendices 2 and 3 also demonstrate that there is a substantial amount of convenience (£43.6) and comparison goods expenditure (£123.1m) in the wider PCA by 2030, albeit only a proportion of this is expected to be drawn to the proposed retail floorspace.
3.16
There is therefore a substantial quantum of local expenditure that could be available to support new shops and stores within the development.
Total Available Expenditure 3.17
The following analysis draws on the population and expenditure growth forecasts to provide a high level assessment of the proportion (‘market share’) of available convenience and comparison goods expenditure within the proposed development and wider PCA that new retail floorspace could reasonably draw.
3.18
For convenience goods we have assumed that the scale, type and mix of food and convenience stores proposed for the scheme has the potential to retain approximately 60% of the expenditure generated by the new population. This is in accordance with the “walkable neighbourhood” principle, however still allows for a reasonable 40% ‘leakage’ of shopping trips and expenditure to nearby centres and larger foodstores in the wider catchment area. We have also assumed that food and convenience stores within the scheme could achieve a 10% share of convenience goods expenditure from the wider PCA.
3.19
For comparison goods we have assumed that the proposal will have a more limited role and attraction. We have assumed that the non-food retailing will achieve a 25% market share of available comparison goods expenditure from residents of the
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proposed urban extension. Only 5% of total comparison goods expenditure from the PCA is expected to be drawn to the proposal. 3.20
Due to the location of the proposed development along a major arterial route into Norwich, it is estimated that a proportion of convenience and comparison expenditure will come from drive-by traffic outside of the PCA. In order to capture this potential expenditure, we have assumed that an additional 20% of total available convenience and comparison expenditure will be derived from this source.
3.21
We consider that these are reasonable market share estimates and reflect the objective to provide sustainable and convenient facilities to serve the day-to-day needs of the local community whilst still respecting the attraction of existing retail provision in the area.
3.22
The total estimated available convenience and comparison goods expenditure derived from these assumptions is set out in Table 4 of Appendix 2 for convenience goods and Table 4 of Appendix 3 for comparison goods. Based on these robust and conservative assumptions, we conclude that by 2030 there will be approximately £16.7m of available expenditure to support convenience goods floorspace in the proposed development and £20.5m of available expenditure for comparison goods.
Estimated Turnover of Proposed Floorspace 3.23
For convenience goods, it is estimated that the turnover of all proposed new floorspace will be circa £5,000/sqm in 2012, growing to 5,152/sqm by 2030. This is higher than the estimated turnovers of new smaller foodstores (£4,122/sqm by 2016) estimated by the 2007 NSRTCS (Appendix 9, Table 36). Applying these estimates, the total convenience goods elements of the proposal would result in a turnover of £13.2m by 2030.
3.24
In order to be robust, we have also tested the proposed foodstore element of the proposal using a higher proposed average turnover (Table 6, Appendix 2). Assuming this element of the proposal trades 30% higher (at circa £6,500/sqm in 2012), the total turnover of all proposed convenience floorspace would be £15.5m by 2030. Even assuming this higher turnover, there would be a surplus of £1.2m of available convenience goods expenditure in 2030 to support all convenience floorspace proposed.
3.25
For comparison goods, it is estimated that the proposed turnover of new floorspace will be circa £5,000/sqm in 2012, growing to £6,886/sqm by 2030. Applying these estimates, the total turnover of the comparison goods element of the proposal would be £9.3m in 2015, growing to £12.4m in 2030.
3.26
Please note the sales density applied is lower than the £6,704/sqm estimated for new comparison goods floorspace by the 2007 NSRTCS (Appendix 8, Table 16), however it
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
is considered appropriate bearing in mind the minimal scale and overall amount of comparison goods floorspace proposed. 3.27
Notwithstanding this, in order to be robust we have undertaken a sensitivity assessment assuming that the proposed floorspace operates 20% above estimated turnover levels (circa £6,000/sqm in 2012). Even assuming this higher floorspace figure, by 2030 there would be a surplus of £5.6m of available expenditure to support the maximum amount of comparison goods floorspace proposed.
3.28
Again, it must be reiterated that proposed main town centre uses would not have a disproportionately more significant impact on existing centres and stores outside of the proposal prior to the occupation of all proposed residential dwellings because the share of expenditure “diverted” to the proposal from the PCA is not linked to occupation of the residential units. Rather, it is normal for first phase retail uses to trade below company benchmarks until such time as the development is fully completed and able to sustain expected trading levels.
Market Share from Total Expenditure 3.29
Tables 5 of Appendices 2 and 3 also show the total market share the proposed convenience and comparison goods elements of the proposal will have in the context of total expenditure from the proposal and wider PCA.
3.30
The convenience goods element of the proposal could account for circa 21% of total convenience goods expenditure within the proposal and wider PCA by 2030. Assuming the higher sales density assessed as part of the sensitivity analysis, this could be up to circa 25%.
3.31
The comparison goods element of the proposal could account for 7% of total comparison goods expenditure within the proposal and wider PCA by 2030. This would rise to circa 9% assuming the higher turnover level (used during the sensitivity analysis) for proposed floorspace.
3.32
Even assuming high (sensitivity) turnover levels, it is considered that the amount of floorspace proposed would not result in an inappropriate market share of convenience or comparison goods expenditure in the proposal or wider area.
Higher Occupancy Rate: Sensitivity Testing 3.33
As shown in Appendix 4, adopting a slightly higher estimated occupancy rate of 2.4 persons per household would result in approximately £2.6m of additional available expenditure to support new development here by 2030, all other assumptions being equal.
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Summary 3.34
Based on the population and expenditure growth forecasts, and our robust market share assumptions, we conclude that there will be sufficient population and expenditure growth within the proposed development to support 4,840 sqm (GIA) of Class A1 convenience and comparison floorspace.
3.35
We anticipate that approximately £7m of the total turnover of the proposed convenience retail units could come from outside of the proposed development. This impact would be spread across the main and out-of-centre foodstore destinations within the Primary Catchment Area and across the wider as a whole and would not have a significant impact on any existing centres. Most importantly, this figure must be considered in the context of the £6.5m of additional convenience goods expenditure and nearly £33m of additional comparison goods expenditure which we have estimated will not be accommodated by the proposal. This additional expenditure represents a net increase which could be attracted by nearby centres that may represent a more sustainable shopping destination for new residents (such as, in the case of comparison goods particularly, Norwich City Centre).
3.36
Furthermore, this application must be considered in the context of an overall stated requirement for an additional 6,981 – 20,942 sqm (net) new convenience goods floorspace and 67,918 sqm (net) for new comparison goods floorspace in the Norwich urban area by 2021 according to the results of the 2007 NSRTCS, even without considering this additional expenditure generated as a result of major housing growth.
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON PLANNED AND COMMITTED INVESTMENT 3.37
Anglia Square falls within the northern edge of Norwich City Centre and is designated as a Large District Centre by the Joint Core Strategy. The area has been earmarked by the previous Local Plan and Joint Core Strategy for major mixed-use redevelopment of employment, shopping (including a replacement anchor foodstore) and leisure uses and services with an element of residential.
3.38
In June 2011, Norwich City Council supported plans for a £100m revamp of Anglia Square Shopping Centre, including widespread demolition of the existing shopping centre and the seven-storey Sovereign House office block at Anglia Square/Magdalen Street. The plans include a larger shopping centre comprising 16,433 sqm (net) A1-A4 floorspace (including a foodstore of 7,792 sqm (net), a gym and more than 100 new residential units.
3.39
The proposed urban extension to the north east of Norwich serves a different function and purpose than the plans for Anglia Square. With respect to convenience goods floorspace, due to the naturally constrained distance people will reasonably travel to undertake this type of shopping, there is currently very limited scope for existing or
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
proposed expenditure to be attracted to existing or new floorspace in Anglia Square. With respect to comparison goods expenditure generated by the proposal, we anticipate only a small proportion will be retained by proposed comparison goods floorspace in the proposal. This will effectively create an overall net increase in available comparison goods expenditure in the area, which could be reasonably attracted to Anglia Square. 3.40
In addition, and as stated elsewhere in this assessment, there is a significant overall net requirement for convenience (6,981 – 20,942 sqm net), comparison (67,918 sqm net) and office (100,000 sqm) floorspace in Norwich Urban Area by 2016, not taking into account additional expenditure generated by the proposed urban extension. Upon implementation of Anglia Square, there will continue to be a significant need across these categories.
3.41
The proposed floorspace is appropriate in terms of its scale, uses and offer to principally meet the day-to-day needs of the new local community and catchment. It will not therefore have the critical mass of retailing or turnover to jeopardise any planned investment in the City Centre or other centres, and it will not harm their overall vitality and viability.
3.42
We are not aware of any other planned or committed public or private investment in either the Norwich centre or any of District or Local Centre in the Primary Catchment Area of the proposal.
3.43
We therefore conclude that the proposal will not have a significant adverse impact on planning or committed private or public investment.
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TOWN CENTRE VITALITY, VIABILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE AND TRADE 3.44
As the application is for retail, leisure and office development outside of a defined town centre and elements of the proposal are above the default threshold of 2,500 sqm, this assessment considers the potential impact of the proposed development on town centre vitality, viability and consumer choice and trade in the catchment area of the proposal.
3.45
Only a limited amount of trade is expected to be drawn from the Primary Catchment Area of the proposal. However, the PCA includes the following adopted centres which will be considered here in terms of potential impact: Old Catton District Centre and Spixworth Village Centre.
3.46
Although outside of the reasonable catchment area of the proposal, in order to be robust we have also considered any potential impact on the Large District Centre of Sprowston Local Centre, Anglia Square/Magdalen Street, and Norwich City Centre. In addition, the assessment considers potential impact on Blue Boar Lane even though it is not a defined District Centre.
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Old Catton – The Paddocks 3.47
Old Catton is located on the edge of Norwich’s urban area to the north of the A1042 ring road. It is defined as a District Centre in the Broadland (Replacement) Local Plan and JCS and serves a predominantly suburban residential population. It is purposebuilt and opened in the 1960s. It has an extensive surface car park adjacent to the centre, part of which has been developed for new residential use.
3.48
The table below shows the retail composition of the centre, based on the findings of the 2007 Norwich Sub-Region Retail and Town Centre Study (2007 NSRTCS). Table 3.4 Old Catton Retail Profile in 2007/08 Retail Category
Number of Units
% of Units
National Average %
Floorspace (m2 net)
% of Floorspace
2007/08 National Average %
Convenience
1
14
9.1
1,421
76
16.6
Comparison
3
43
46.4
286
16
51.6
Service
3
43
32.6
127
7
21.5
Vacant
0
0
10.5
0
0
8.9
Total
7
100%
100%
1,833
100%
100%
Source: Norwich Sub-Region Retail & Town Centre Study 2007
3.49
The centre’s food and convenience offer consists of a Morrison’s supermarket (formerly Somerfield).
According to company averages, it had an average turnover of circa
£6.8m at the time of the 2007 NSRTCS. The household survey commissioned to inform the 2007 NSRTCS pre-dated the opening of the Co-op, but it identified that the majority of people using the (Somerfield) supermarket in Old Catton lived in Zone 6, from where it achieved a market share of 6.1% for ‘main’ food shopping trips and 21.7% for ‘top-up’ food shopping.
It also drew shoppers from Zone 11, with 6.3%
using Somerfield for their main food shopping and 13.6% for their top-up food †
shopping .
According to the results of the survey, the store had a turnover of
approximately £6m in 2006 and was therefore trading slightly below the company average. 3.50
There is an adjoining parade of local shops, which in 2007 included a hardware shop, a Sue Ryder charity shop, a Lloyds pharmacy, two hairdressers and a Chinese takeaway. Significantly, there were no vacant units in the centre in 2007.
3.51
The 2007 NSRTCS concluded that the centre was vital and viable, as indicated by the lack of vacancies. It also concluded that the centre “...would benefit from investment
† Please note that we have not been able to obtain a copy of a plan showing the household survey zones at this stage.
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in its environment and public realm. There could also be potential to introduce living above shops”. 3.52
As of April 2012, other than the Morrisons, there have been no changes in occupiers. Significantly, there continue to be no vacancies. The introduction of the Morrisons appears to have improved attraction of the centre, particularly as it is the one of only two Morrisons in Norwich Urban Area, and the only Morrisons in the northern half of the GNDP.
3.53
Overall, Old Catton continues to provide essential convenience and service offer to its local population and is easily accessible from neighbouring residential areas by a range of transport modes.
The supermarket is an important and well used anchor to the
centre. The centre continues to appear vital and viable. 3.54
Although there may be some diversion of trade as a result of the proposal, this will be minimal and offset by additional available expenditure derived from the new housing here which may look to Old Catton (and in particular, the Morrisons) to supplement their local needs. This “leakage” of trade from the proposal area is taken into account in the economic assessment, which assumes that 40% of total convenience trade will not be “captured” by proposed convenience floorspace.
3.55
The application also includes plans for a walkable retail link to Old Catton Centre. This would result in up to an additional 300 sqm of retail floorspace located on the new frontages to the Spixworth/Buxton Road created by the development which will extend the reach of the retail area northwards and thus directly link to and support the position of Old Catton as a District Centre in the retail hierarchy.
3.56
We therefore consider that the proposal will have a significant positive improvement in Old Catton.
Spixworth Village Centre 3.57
Spixworth is located to the north of the Norwich Urban Area and is allocated as a Village Centre by the (Replacement) Local Plan. It consists of a small Co-Op foodstore of circa 450 sqm (net), off licence, pharmacy, two takeaways and taxi rank. There is one vacancy (a former Bakers). The small size of the centre is such that it was not assessed as part of the 2007 NSRTCS.
3.58
It is anticipated that the proposal will likely attract an element of expenditure from residents of Spixworth, as it may become a more convenient and sustainable destination for accessing necessary facilities. However, the centre’s primary role is as a local-top up shopping destination for immediate residents. This role would not change as a result of the proposal.
3.59
There is therefore no evidence that the proposal will result in a significant negative impact on Spixworth Village.
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Sprowston Local Centre 3.60
Sprowston Local Centre is allocated in the (Replacement) Local Plan Proposals Map and is located along Corbet Avenue. Like Spixworth, due to its minimal size it was not assessed as part of the 2007 NSRTCS.
3.61
As of April 2012 the centre consisted of and convenience store, butchers, garden centre, beauty parlour, insurance agents, funeral parlour and garden centre. There was one vacancy (a former office). However, the centre’s primary role is as a local-top up shopping destination for immediate residents. This role would not change as a result of the proposal.
3.62
There is therefore no evidence that the proposal will result in a significant negative impact on Sprowston Local Centre.
Anglia Square 3.63
Anglia Square is allocated as a Large District Centre by the JCS. It is located 3 miles south of the proposal site and is outside of the PCA. As such, it is considered too far away and inaccessible to serve the local needs of the new development.
3.64
The shopping centre consists of a dated shopping centre which is primarily branded as a “discount” destination. Current occupiers include Poundstretcher, QD Super Centre, Savers PLC, Discount Shoe Zone, Barnardos Charity Store and Iceland. The current mix is therefore qualitatively different than that proposed in the proposal site.
3.65
There are plans for redevelopment of the centre to provide a new mixed use development
including
a
larger
replacement
foodstore.
However,
these
have
temporarily stalled due to the impact of the economic recession. 3.66
The proposed development will not have a negative impact on the existing centre nor plans for the future the regeneration of the wider area for mixed use development. Indeed, the proposal will create additional comparison goods expenditure which could be attracted to the area and help support new and proposed floorspace.
Blue Boar Lane, Sprowston 3.67
Blue Boar Lane is located on the northern edge of the Norwich Urban Area on the A1151 Wroxham Road. It does not currently fulfil the role of a District Centre and is instead identified as a “potential district centre” in the Broadland Local Plan.
3.68
Its retail offer essentially consists of a Tesco Extra superstore, which opened in 1988 and originally comprised 4,674m2 net of floorspace. The store was extended and now comprises some 6,182m2 net of retail floorspace of which approximately 35% (1,234 sqm net) is for non-food goods. The household survey carried out to inform the 2007 NSRTCS indicated that Tesco Extra draws main and top-up food shopping trips from across the survey area, particularly from Zones 1-10. The zones with the highest
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markets shares for main food shopping are Zone 3 (23.7%), Zone 7 (44.4%), Zone 8 (36.4%), and Zone 10 (36.2%). The store also has a good market share for top-up food shopping in Zone 7 (25%). 3.69
The estimated average turnover of the store according to the 2007 NSRTCS was circa £50m. As of 2007, the store was trading well above company averages (at circa £60m in 2006) and this was expected to increase (to £63m by 2011). The store continues to be well used and we consider that it still trades above benchmark.
3.70
Complementary retail units are located within the Tesco store. As of April 2012, these consist of a Timpsons, Thomas Cook, Dry cleaners and Estate Agents. There is also a café, petrol station and a large car park.
3.71
We expect that a proportion of existing convenience trade to the Tesco will be diverted to the proposal, as it will represent a more sustainable option for proposed and existing local residents for undertaking their convenience goods shopping. However, the store is currently significantly overtrading and any trade diverted would be minimal both overall and in comparison to the total turnover of the store.
3.72
Furthermore, notwithstanding the primary goal of creating walkable communities which provide for the day to day needs of residents, we anticipate that there will be a proportion of trade which will “leak” from the proposal. This could be in the form of more “bulky” convenience goods shopping, which we could be directed to the Tesco Extra at Blue Boar Lane.
3.73
There is therefore no evidence that the proposal will result in a significant negative impact on the vitality or viability of the proposed centre.
NORWICH CITY CENTRE 3.74
As described above, Norwich City Centre is too far away to be accessible to serve the local, day to day needs of the local population. However, it remains the primary comparison goods retail destination in the area and as such is expected to attract the majority of non-food purchases from the proposal. This is reflected in the capacity tables which estimate that only 25% of comparison goods expenditure will retained by the proposal, with the £34m by 2030 unaccounted for. The proposal therefore represents a net increase in comparison goods expenditure available to support new floorspace in the town centre.
3.75
With respect to offices, the scale of floorspace proposed as part of the development is only a fraction of overall existing and required office floorspace in the Norwich Urban Area.
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Table 3.5 Greater Norwich Office Stock, 2001 - 2011
Sqm
‘01
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07/08
‘08/09
‘09/10
‘10/11
100,893
105,910
107,489
112,134
119,380
119,009
(+6,276)
(+13,205)
(+657)
(+2,404)
125,285
138,490
139,147
141,551
Source: Data from 2001 to 2006 taken from Economic Assessment of Greater Norwich (August 2009). Data from 2007/2008 to present taken from GNDP Annual Monitoring Report 2010-2011. Please note AMR figures show completions only.
3.76
Table 3.5 above shows the total amount of office floorspace in Norwich according to the results of the Economic Assessment of Greater Norwich (August 2009) and the results of the most recent GNDP Annual Monitoring Report.
3.77
More importantly, it is relevant to note that the JCS identifies a significant need for new office floorspace (250,000 sqm) across the GNDP area up to 2026, which is directed to Norwich city centre (100,000 sqm), Norwich Research Park and Broadland Business Park (paragraph 6.10). This requirement is carried forward from the Greater Norwich Employment Growth Study (September 2008), which identified more than 370,000 sqm (circa 4 million sqft) of office stock in Norwich and a “significant latent demand for city centre space.”
3.78
Taking into account existing office stock at 2011 and planned growth in office floorspace as directed by the JCS between 2011 and 2026, the total amount of office floorspace in the GNDP area by 2026 will be circa 391,500 sqm. The proposed floorspace envisioned for the NS&OC Urban Extension would represent less than 5% of existing stock. The proposal will primarily serve the surrounding residents and will not compete with existing or proposed floorspace in the city centre. We therefore judge that there will be no significant negative impact of the proposal.
SUMMARY 3.79
The proposed retail floorspace is strategically located and designed to promote a significant proportion of walk-in trips from the local residential areas, as well as attracting trips by public transport and other modes of travel. It will therefore function as highly sustainable development in accordance with policy objectives.
3.80
The proposal will support a commercially viable anchor supermarket to meet the dayto-day needs of the new and existing local population, as well as generate the necessary critical mass of linked trips, footfall and expenditure to support other shops, services and facilities on the proposed High Street.
3.81
Overall, we estimate that circa 20% of the turnover of the proposed convenience floorspace could come from outside of the proposal. Of this, a large proportion of this would be from drive-by traffic, the impact of which would be diversified across a wide geographical area. The remainder of this would be diverted from areas to which the
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proposal would represent a more sustainable destination for shopping (such as the Tesco at Blue Boar Lane, which is significantly overtrading). 3.82
The proposal should also be considered in the context of the significant overall requirement for new convenience, comparison and office floorspace in Norwich Urban Area. This is without taking into account the additional expenditure and job requirements as a result of new residential floorspace proposed.
3.83
Furthermore, proposed floorspace will provide local choice and sustainable access to important services for proposed and existing residents in the local area, in accordance with the overall vision of the NPPF.
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4.0 SEQUENTIAL ASSESSMENT 4.1
As described elsewhere in this report, the level, mix and location of proposed main town centre floorspace is to support and encourage the creation of walkable neighbourhoods which provide for the day to day shopping, business, and leisure needs of the proposed population and nearby local residents. It is therefore considered inappropriate to locate these facilities elsewhere.
4.2
Furthermore, following a judicial review raised by Tesco Ltd against the decision of Dundee City Council to grant Asda a planning permission for a new store in the west of Dundee, a recent Supreme Court judgement has set out further detail with respect to the application of the sequential test. Specifically, the judgement provides clarification that the test of suitability must be “whether an alternative site is suitable for the proposed development, not whether the proposed development can be altered or reduced so that it can be made to fit an alternative site.”
In addition, “criteria are
designed for use in the real world in which developers wish to operate, not some artificial world in which they have no interest in doing so.” In the case of the present application, the purpose of the main town centre uses proposed is to provide for a range of necessary facilities for the proposed urban extension. The disaggregation of the individual components of this application as part of the sequential test would be contrary to the overall purpose of the proposed development. 4.3
Notwithstanding this, to be strictly in accordance with the sequential, test, this study has reviewed opportunity sites identified by the 2007 NSRTCS as being potentially suitable for main town centre uses. However, as the primary function and purpose of proposed floorspace is to serve the day to day needs of the local population, these sites are considered too far, inaccessible to serve the day to day needs of the proposed development, and therefore unsuitable to accommodate the main town centre floorspace proposed: •
•
•
•
Chantry Car Park: is approximately 0.24ha and located within Norwich City Centre, but outside the primary shopping area. It is currently used as a surface car park and the adopted Local Plan specifies that redevelopment of the site should be for a mixture of retail, leisure and/or restaurant uses with residential uses above and replacement car parking. The site is considered slightly off the retail pitch and was identified by the 2007 study as being more suitable for commercial leisure uses. We are not aware of any interest in developing the site since the 2007 NSRTCS. The site is unsuitable due to its location. Norwich Union Offices: is located on the southern edge of the city centre boundary. Furthermore, the site has recently benefited from a £69m refurbishment. The site is therefore not available for alternative development. Westlegate: is a circa 0.13ha site located with the Norwich Primary Retail Area and currently comprises a vacant office block. The Council has recently granted permission for conversion into 14 flats. The site is therefore both unsuitable and unavailable. Furthermore, the permission has reduced office stock. Ber Street/Rouen Road: is located to the south of Norwich, within the city centre boundary. It is currently used as Eastern Evening News Offices, The Woolpack Public House and several smaller units. It has been identified in the
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•
•
•
•
•
•
4.4
2007 NSRTCS as having the potential for a mix of residential, retail, office and/or leisure uses, potentially including a 4/5 star hotel. We are not of any further discussion on this or of any interest from Eastern Evening News Offices for relocation. The site is therefore both unsuitable and unavailable to accommodate the proposed development. Fire Station: is a small, Grade II listed building located to the rear of Norwich City Hall. It ceased operation for fire services in 2011 and has been granted planning permission for residential flats and offices. In addition to being unsuitable due to its location, it is also unavailable for the proposed development. Anglia Square: is identified in the JCS as being suitable for the delivery of a new (replacement) foodstore significantly larger than that proposed on the proposal site. As described above, it is considered that the site would be suitable for a mixed use development including residential, retail, leisure, open space, car parking and office uses. The Planning Committee approved plans in June 2011, however these have stalled due to economic uncertainty surrounding the recession. There is more than sufficient capacity to accommodate redevelopment of Anglia Square and capacity for comparison goods floorspace in particular will increase as a result of the proposal. The site remains unsuitable to accommodate the proposed development due to its inaccessible location. Barn Road Car Park: is a 0.42ha site located within the western edge of Norwich City Centre. It is currently used as a Council owned car park, which would require re-provision should the site come forward for alternative development. The NSRTCS considers there is potential for the site to come forward either alone or in conjunction with adjacent Cathedral Retail Park for larger and more modern retail units. The site is unsuitable to accommodate the proposed development. Barn Road/Timber Yard: is located outside of the city centre boundary, nearby the Barn Road Car Park site. It is currently used for light industrial purposes and owned by Cushions Timber Merchants. It is identified for potential for retail warehousing by the 2007 RS, however it is currently unavailable and no discussions have taken place for redevelopment. Hall Road Retail Warehouse Park: the site is located to the south of Norwich near Old Lakenham and is therefore considered too far to be considered accessible. Hall Road District Centre: is located to the south of Norwich City Centre and is allocated in the Local Plan as a New District Centre. It is allocated by Policy SH013 of the Replacement local Plan for a foodstore of no more than 1,300 sqm (net) with at least three local shops of no more than 500 sqm (net) each, residential or office use on upper floorspace and appropriate service uses. The site is also unsuitable due to its location.
In addition to the above, the NSRTCS identifies the potential for future expansion of Aylsham Road District Centre, to the north west of Norwich City Centre. The Norwich Local Plan sets out proposals for the future expansion, which could take the form of development along Aylsham Road to link the existing centre with a (currently) out of centre Lidl store. The site is outside of the PCA of the proposal and is therefore inaccessible for local day to day needs. As a result, it is unsuitable to accommodate the proposed development.
4.5
Although it is not allocated as a District Centre and is therefore, strictly speaking, not a “centre” for the purposes of the Sequential Assessment, the area of land around Blue Boar Lane is set aside for the future extension and expansion of this area. A Development Brief was approved in 2007 and sets out broad guidance on the location and connections between proposed new development. The centre is currently considered insufficient to be allocated a “district centre” due to the predominance of
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the retail (in the form of the Tesco store) and a lack of suitable supplementary facilities. It therefore stands to reason that the majority of new development will be required for services and facilities other than retail. This site is considered unavailable to contain the proposed development and unsuitable due to its location outside a reasonable walking distance from the proposed development. 4.6
In conclusion, the above sites are considered fundamentally unsuitable to contain the proposed development. The retail, services, leisure and office floorspace proposed are of a small scale and are considered important to support and encourage the creation of walkable neighbourhoods, a fundamental design tenant of the sustainable urban extension proposed here. There are therefore no sites in or at the edge of existing centres which are considered suitable to accommodate the proposed development.
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5.0 THE QUALITATIVE NEED FOR NEW SHOPPING FACILITIES 5.1
This section identifies the qualitative need for new shopping provision to be provided as an integral part of the proposed residential development.
It describes the broad
characteristics, uses and facilities that are typical of smaller shopping facilities. 5.2
The smaller centres in the Norwich urban area primarily meet the day-to-day shopping, service business, health and community needs of their local residential catchment populations. Each centre’s retail offer is anchored by a food store. These stores are vital to the overall attraction, performance, vitality and viability of the centres as they generate frequent trips for main food and ‘top-up’ (basket) shopping, as well as linked trips and ‘spin-off’ expenditure to other shops, service businesses and facilities.
5.3
New shopping and community facilities proposed as part of Beyond Green’s scheme will meet the day-to-day needs of the new population in an easily accessible and highly sustainable location. In order to generate trips, footfall and expenditure, the proposal will provide a ‘critical mass’ of facilities and services. This in turn will help to underpin the commercial viability and sustainability of complementary main town centre floorspace proposed.
5.4
The centre’s vitality and viability will depend on it being able to attract a food store operator as a priority to anchor the overall retail and service offer. The anchor store will help to generate the critical number and frequency of trips by different modes of travel, which will in turn benefit other shops, businesses and facilities through linked trips and expenditure.
5.5
If trips are to be minimised than the main town centre uses proposed must be of sufficient scale, quantity and quality to be attractive to residents.
5.6
Research has shown that smaller shopping schemes need to provide a number of other ‘core’ shops, services and facilities to be viable. These can include, inter alia, banks and building societies; cafes, restaurants and at least one public house; a library; a post office; a newsagents; chemists/pharmacy; and health facilities (such as a doctor’s surgery, dentist, opticians, etc).
5.7
The ‘Urban Design Compendium’ is produced by the Homes and Communities Agency and sets out best practice guidance how to deliver high quality and sustainable places. One of the key principles covered in the UDC is the benefits of mixed-use centres and how design principles can lay the foundation for the creation of healthy and vital communities.
The UDC recognises the importance of providing sufficient facilities
within a close distance of residential dwellings, stating that “residential areas can support a significant floor area of convenience goods and services. Every effort should be made to retain as many of these uses as possible within the neighbourhood. This
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Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
can be aided by ensuring that densities are company, the quality of the services, and both quality and convenience of the built environment area right (paragraph 2.3.2). 5.8
The UDC also recognises that the range of facilities promoted in a new neighbourhood is unlikely to be viable in the early phases of the project. However “increasing the number of facilities or opportunities available and accessible to potential occupiers or users in a new development will increase how they perceive the quality of life that the place offers” (2.3.2).
5.9
Another study, ‘Shaping Neighbourhoods’ (2003), provides further evidence as to the services and facilities most likely to be used if they are provided locally, based on selected case study estates in the Bristol sub-region. As Table 3.2 below shows, the most frequented local services include supermarkets, secondary schools, newsagents, post offices and health centres. Table 5.1 Percentage of Trips to Facilities Service
5.10
% of trips to local facilities when provided locally
Service
% of trips to local facilities when provided locally
Supermarket
70 – 80
Secondary School
60 - 70
Play Area
40 – 50
Newsagent
60 – 70
Community Centre
40 – 50
Post Office
60 – 70
Public House
40 – 50
Health Centre
60 – 70
Open Space
30 – 40
Doctor
50 – 60
Church
20 – 30
Food Shop
50 – 60
Library
10 – 20
Chemist
40 - 50
Dentist
10 – 20
Primary School
40 - 50
Leisure Facility
0 – 10
It is widely recognised that the creation of successful places is dependent upon providing a mix of uses which link to and feed into each other, providing an opportunity for residents and visitors to access required services and facilities in a central space which also provides the opportunity interaction and the creation of a community spirit.
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
6.0 CONCLUSION 6.1
Based on the population and expenditure growth forecasts, and our robust market share assumptions, we conclude that there will be sufficient population and expenditure growth within the proposed development to support 4,840 sqm (GIA) of Class A1 convenience and comparison floorspace by the expected completion of the proposal in 2030.
6.2
The scale and mix of retail, leisure and office space proposed is considered appropriate to support the creation of a sustainable and vibrant mixed use community. However, in line with best practice, the proposed townhouses in and around the central areas of the activity centres of the scheme are adaptable in order to allow the scheme to adapt to and respond to changes over time. Part of the scheme includes the retention of ownership and/or use of short leases to preserve flexibility and allow the amount of retail/commercial uses to flex and contract according to demand.
This physical
framework will help prevent the scheme being locked into a “predict-and-provide” approach to retail and simulate the gradual change over time characteristic of successful traditional high streets. At the same time, the need to apply for change of use consents will ensure there is appropriate planning control of that evolutionary process. 6.3
With respect to the NPPF impact tests, we have reviewed committed or planned public and private investment in the area and concluded that none will be prejudiced by the proposal. Indeed, the proposal will have a positive impact by generating additional available expenditure to support the demand for the delivery of new committed floorspace in the City Centre.
6.4
The results of our economic model demonstrate that only a small proportion of trade is likely to be drawn to the proposal area from the wider catchment area. Furthermore, this potential trade “draw” (of circa £7m) is significantly less than the estimated £6.5m of new convenience expenditure and £33m of new comparison goods expenditure which is not expected to be retained by the new proposal. This results in a net increase in the amount of available expenditure which could be drawn to existing nearby centres which may be a more sustainable destination for facilities or services (such as, for comparison goods shopping in particular, Norwich City Centre). We have also reviewed the health and role of existing centres within and adjacent to the PCA of the proposal and there is no evidence that any centre will have a significant negative impact as a result of the proposal.
6.5
With respect to the NPPF sequential test, the purpose of the proposed main town centre uses is to enable the creation of sustainable “walking neighbourhoods” which provide access to necessary facilities and services within close proximity of proposed and existing residents. Therefore, the location of these proposed uses elsewhere in the
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Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
Norwich Urban Area would be contrary to the fundamental principle of the development. Notwithstanding this, the study reviewed a list of opportunity sites identified by the 2007 NSRTCS and concluded that the sites were not sequentially preferable to accommodate the retail, leisure and office uses proposed. 6.6
We therefore conclude that the scale and extent of proposed town centre uses are appropriate, necessary and meet the relevant tests of the NPPF.
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
7.0 GLOSSARY & ABBREVIATIONS DISTRICT CENTRE (PPS4 DEFINITION)
LOCAL CENTRE (PPS4 DEFINITION)
TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARY (PPS4 DEFINITION) PRIMARY SHOPPING AREA (PSA) (PPS4 DEFINITION)
32
Usually comprise groups of shops often containing at least one supermarket or superstore, and a range of non-retail services, such as banks, building societies and restaurants, as well as local public facilities, such as a library. Include a range of small shops of a local nature, serving a small catchment. Typically, local centres might include, amongst other shops a small supermarket, a newsagent, a sub-post office and a pharmacy. Other facilities could include a hot-food takeaway and launderette. In rural areas large villages may perform the role of a local centre. Defined area, including the primary shopping area and areas of predominantly leisure, business and other main town centre uses within or adjacent to the primary shopping area. The extent of the town centre should be defined on a proposals map. Defined area where retail development is concentrated (generally comprising the primary and those secondary frontages which are contiguous and closely related to the primary shopping frontage). The extent of the primary shopping area should be defined on the proposals map. Smaller centres may not have areas of predominantly leisure, business and other main town centre uses adjacent to the primary shopping area, therefore the town centre may not extend beyond the primary shopping area.
PRIMARY / SECONDARY FRONTAGES
Primary frontages are likely to include a high proportion of retail uses. Secondary frontages provide greater opportunities for a diversity of uses.
EDGE-OF-CENTRE
For retail purposes, a location that is well connected to and within easy walking distance (i.e. up to 300 metres) of the primary shopping area. For all other main town centre uses, this is likely to be within 300 metres of a town centre boundary. In determining whether a site falls within the definition of edge-ofcentre, account should be taken of local circumstances. For example, local topography will affect pedestrians’ perceptions of easy walking distance from the centre. Other considerations include barriers, such as crossing major roads and car parks, the attractiveness and perceived safety of the route and the strength of attraction and size of the town centre. A site will not be well connected to a centre where it is physically separated from it by a barrier such as a major road, railway line or river and there is no existing or proposed pedestrian route which provides safe and convenient access to the centre.
OUT-OF-CENTRE
A location which is not in or on the edge of a centre but not necessarily outside the urban area.
OUT-OF-TOWN
An out-of-centre development outside the existing urban area.
CONVENIENCE SHOPPING
Convenience retailing is the provision of everyday essential items, including food, drinks, newspapers/magazines and confectionery.
MARKET SHARE
Market share or retention level is the proportion of consumer expenditure within a given area taken by a particular town centre or shopping facility.
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Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
SUPERMARKETS
Self-service stores selling mainly food, with a trading floorspace less than 2,500 square metres, often with car parking.
SUPERSTORES
Self-service stores selling mainly food, or food and non-food goods, usually with more than 2,500 square metres trading floorspace, with supporting car parking.
COMPARISON SHOPPING
Comparison retailing is the provision of items not obtained on a frequent basis. These include clothing, footwear, household and recreational goods.
RETAIL WAREHOUSES
Large stores specialising in the sale of household goods (such as carpets, furniture and electrical goods), DIY items and other ranges of goods, catering mainly for car-borne customers.
RETAIL PARKS
An agglomeration of at least 3 retail warehouses.
CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE
Expenditure (including VAT as applicable) on goods in COICOP categories: Food and non-alcoholic beverages/ Tobacco/ Alcoholic beverages (off-trade)/ Newspapers and periodicals/ Non-durable household goods.
COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE
Expenditure (including VAT as applicable) on goods in COICOP Categories: Clothing materials & garments/ Shoes & other footwear/ Materials for maintenance & repair of dwellings/ Furniture & furnishings/ carpets & other floor coverings/ Household textiles/ Major household appliances, whether electric or not/ Small electric household appliances/ Tools & miscellaneous accessories/ Glassware, tableware & household utensils/ Medical goods & other pharmaceutical products/ Therapeutic appliances & equipment, Bicycles/ Recording media, Games, toys & hobbies/ sport & camping equipment/ musical instruments/ Gardens, plants & flowers/ Pets & related products/ Books & stationery/ Audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment/ Appliances for personal care/ Jewellery, watches & clocks/ Other personal effects.
SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING
All retail sales not in shops and stores; including sales via the internet, mail order, TV shopping, party plan, vending machines, door-to-door and market stalls.
GROSS GROUND FLOOR FOOTPRINT FLOORSPACE
The area shown on the Ordnance Survey map or other plans as being occupied by buildings and covered areas measured externally.
GROSS RETAIL FLOORSPACE
The total built floor area measured externally which is occupied exclusively by a retailer or retailers; excluding open areas used for the storage, display or sale of goods.
NET RETAIL SALES AREA
The sales area within a building (i.e. all internal areas accessible to the customer), but excluding checkouts, lobbies, concessions, restaurants, customer toilets and walkways behind the checkouts.
RETAIL SALES DENSITY
Convenience goods, comparison goods or all goods retail sales (stated as including or excluding VAT) for a specified year on the price basis indicated, divided by the net retail sales area generating those sales.
FLOORSPACE EFFICIENCY FACTOR
The percentage by which a retail sales density is assumed to increase annually in real terms over a stated period.
– END –
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
APPENDIX 1: PRIMARY CATCHMENT AREA
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Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
APPENDIX 2: CONVENIENCE GOODS RETAIL CAPACITY ASSESSMENT
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
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APPENDIX 3: COMPARISON GOODS RETAIL CAPACITY ASSESSMENT
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
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APPENDIX 4: HIGHER OCCUPANCY RATE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
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Sustainable Urban Extension North of Norwich Town Centre Impact and Sequential Assessment Beyond Green Developments Ltd
APPENDIX 5: EXPERIAN POPULATION AND EXPENDITURE REPORTS FOR PRIMARY CATCHMENT AREA
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Area Profile Report Target Area(s):
Layers;
Base Area(s):
Standard Geography; United Kingdom
Sorted On:
Default (Ascending)
Date:
11/06/2012
Retail Planner
Consumer Retail Expenditure (Coarse) 2010 Total Expenditure (in 2010 prices) Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Total Retail Total Comparison
52,637,624
60.94 182,308,788,482
59.98
0.029
Total Convenience
33,739,746
39.06 121,651,861,724
40.02
0.028
Total Retail
86,377,370
100.00 303,960,650,206
100.00
0.028
2010 Total Expenditure (in 2010 prices) Comparison Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
130,955
0.25
447,296,656
0.25
0.029
Total Comparison 10% of Non-Durable household goods Appliances for personal care
4,872,067
9.26 17,636,569,103
9.67
0.028
Audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment
3,910,333
7.43 16,401,561,880
9.00
0.024
892,177
1.69
1,440,619,318
0.79
0.062
1,861,563
3.54
7,568,798,589
4.15
0.025
10,474,017
19.90 40,198,955,905
22.05
0.026
Furniture and furnishings; carpets and other floor coverings
5,111,177
9.71 16,275,871,519
8.93
0.031
Games, toys and hobbies; sport and camping; musical instruments
6,313,277
11.99 19,742,928,822
10.83
0.032
Gardens, plants and flowers
1,048,471
1.99
3,838,999,859
2.11
0.027
Glassware, tableware and household utensils
1,167,214
2.22
3,915,978,152
2.15
0.030
Household textiles
1,488,172
2.83
5,911,626,383
3.24
0.025
Jewellery, clocks and watches
1,259,508
2.39
5,751,950,313
3.16
0.022
Major household appliances (electric or not)
2,125,550
4.04
5,271,245,426
2.89
0.040
170,192
0.32
451,462,488
0.25
0.038
Materials for maintenance and repair of the dwelling
2,469,935
4.69
7,167,626,086
3.93
0.035
Medical goods and other pharmaceutical products
1,648,840
3.13
4,876,949,733
2.68
0.034
697,483
1.33
2,559,992,980
1.40
0.027
Bicycles Books and stationery Clothing materials and garments
Major tools and equipment
Other personal effects
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
970,581
1.84
3,350,999,791
1.84
0.029
Recording media
1,620,080
3.08
5,348,057,628
2.93
0.030
Shoes and other footwear
1,693,156
3.22
6,776,838,421
3.72
0.025
Small electrical household appliances
284,613
0.54
765,928,568
0.42
0.037
Small tools and miscellaneous accessories
1,272,345
2.42
3,753,530,748
2.06
0.034
Therapeutic appliances and equipment
1,155,917
2.20
2,855,000,114
1.57
0.041
100.00 182,308,788,482
100.00
0.029
Total Comparison Pets and related products
Total Comparison
52,637,624
2010 Total Expenditure (in 2010 prices) Convenience Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
90% of Non-Durable household goods
1,178,514
3.49
4,025,565,531
3.31
0.029
Alcohol (off-trade)
4,242,772
12.58 15,043,724,606
12.37
0.028
24,664,074
73.10 87,042,667,241
71.55
0.028
Total Convenience
Food and non-alcoholic beverages Newspapers and periodicals
1,205,163
3.57
4,135,115,631
3.40
0.029
Tobacco
2,449,222
7.26 11,404,788,715
9.37
0.022
33,739,746
100.00 121,651,861,724
100.00
0.028
Total Convenience
2010 Total Expenditure (in 2010 prices) Other Aggregations Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Core bulky goods Core DIY Goods excluding gardening
4,554,551
28.05 13,447,516,370
25.09
0.034
Gardens, plants and flowers
1,048,471
6.46 3,838,999,859
7.16
0.027
Other Bulky Goods
10,635,937
65.50 36,321,078,433
67.75
0.029
Core bulky goods
16,238,959
100.00 53,607,594,662
100.00
0.030
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 12,167,230,434
0.00
0.028
Target
Target %
2010 Total Expenditure (in 2010 prices) Prescription Costs Prescription costs
3,448,480
2010 Total Expenditure per HH (in 2010 prices) Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Total Comparison per HH
6,915
60.94
6,788
59.98
101.871
Total Convenience per HH
4,432
39.06
4,530
40.02
97.856
11,348
100.00
11,318
100.00
100.264
Total Retail per HH
Total Retail per HH
2010 Total Expenditure per HH (in 2010 prices) Comparison Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
17
0.25
17
0.25
103.297
Appliances for personal care per HH
640
9.26
657
9.67
97.468
Audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment per HH
514
7.43
611
9.00
84.119
Bicycles per HH
117
1.69
54
0.79
218.507
Books and stationery per HH
245
3.54
282
4.15
86.779
1,376
19.90
1,497
22.05
91.931
Furniture and furnishings; carpets and other floor coverings per HH
671
9.71
606
8.93
110.800
Games, toys and hobbies; sport and camping; musical instruments per HH
829
11.99
735
10.83
112.825
Gardens, plants and flowers per HH
138
1.99
143
2.11
96.361
Glassware, tableware and household utensils per HH
153
2.22
146
2.15
105.166
Household textiles per HH
196
2.83
220
3.24
88.820
Jewellery, clocks and watches per HH
165
2.39
214
3.16
77.259
Major household appliances (electric or not) per HH
279
4.04
196
2.89
142.273
Major tools and equipment per HH
22
0.32
17
0.25
133.009
Materials for maintenance and repair of the dwelling per HH
324
4.69
267
3.93
121.583
Medical goods and other pharmaceutical products per HH
217
3.13
182
2.68
119.287
Other personal effects per HH
92
1.33
95
1.40
96.130
Pets and related products per HH
128
1.84
125
1.84
102.193
Recording media per HH
213
3.08
199
2.93
106.882
Shoes and other footwear per HH
222
3.22
252
3.72
88.152
Small electrical household appliances per HH
37
0.54
29
0.42
131.108
Small tools and miscellaneous accessories per HH
167
2.42
140
2.06
119.599
Therapeutic appliances and equipment per HH
152
2.20
106
1.57
142.851
6,915
100.00
6,788
100.00
101.871
Total Comparison per HH 10% of Non-Durable household goods per HH
Clothing materials and garments per HH
Total Comparison per HH
2010 Total Expenditure per HH (in 2010 prices) Convenience
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
90% of Non-Durable household goods per HH
155
3.49
150
3.31
103.293
Alcohol (off-trade) per HH
557
12.58
560
12.37
99.508
3,240
73.10
3,241
71.55
99.976
Newspapers and periodicals per HH
158
3.57
154
3.40
102.831
Tobacco per HH
322
7.26
425
9.37
75.771
4,432
100.00
4,530
100.00
97.856
Total Convenience per HH
Food and non-alcoholic beverages per HH
Total Convenience per HH
2010 Total Expenditure per HH (in 2010 prices) Other Aggregations Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Core DIY Goods excluding gardening per HH
598
28.05
501
25.09
119.500
Gardens, plants and flowers per HH
138
6.46
143
7.16
96.361
Other Bulky Goods per HH
1,397
65.50
1,352
67.75
103.319
Core bulky goods per HH
2,133
100.00
1,996
100.00
106.880
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
453
0.00
100.000
Core bulky goods per HH
2010 Total Expenditure per HH (in 2010 prices) Prescription Costs Prescription costs per HH
453
0.00
2010 Total Expenditure per Person (in 2010 prices) Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Total Comparison per Person
2,940
60.94
2,927
59.98
100.418
Total Convenience per Person
1,884
39.06
1,953
40.02
96.460
Total Retail per Person
4,824
100.00
4,881
100.00
98.834
Total Retail per Person
2010 Total Expenditure per Person (in 2010 prices) Comparison Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
10% of Non-Durable household goods per Person
7
0.25
7
0.25
101.824
Appliances for personal care per Person
272
9.26
283
9.67
96.078
Audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment per Person
218
7.43
263
9.00
82.919
50
1.69
23
0.79
215.390
Total Comparison per Person
Bicycles per Person
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Books and stationery per Person
104
3.54
122
4.15
85.541
Clothing materials and garments per Person
585
19.90
645
22.05
90.620
Furniture and furnishings; carpets and other floor coverings per Person
285
9.71
261
8.93
109.220
Games, toys and hobbies; sport and camping; musical instruments per Person
353
11.99
317
10.83
111.216
Gardens, plants and flowers per Person
59
1.99
62
2.11
94.987
Glassware, tableware and household utensils per Person
65
2.22
63
2.15
103.666
Household textiles per Person
83
2.83
95
3.24
87.553
Jewellery, clocks and watches per Person
70
2.39
92
3.16
76.157
119
4.04
85
2.89
140.243
Major tools and equipment per Person
10
0.32
7
0.25
131.112
Materials for maintenance and repair of the dwelling per Person
138
4.69
115
3.93
119.849
Medical goods and other pharmaceutical products per Person
92
3.13
78
2.68
117.586
Other personal effects per Person
39
1.33
41
1.40
94.759
Pets and related products per Person
54
1.84
54
1.84
100.735
Recording media per Person
90
3.08
86
2.93
105.357
Shoes and other footwear per Person
95
3.22
109
3.72
86.895
Small electrical household appliances per Person
16
0.54
12
0.42
129.238
Small tools and miscellaneous accessories per Person
71
2.42
60
2.06
117.893
Therapeutic appliances and equipment per Person
65
2.20
46
1.57
140.814
2,940
100.00
2,927
100.00
100.418
Total Comparison per Person
Major household appliances (electric or not) per Person
Total Comparison per Person
2010 Total Expenditure per Person (in 2010 prices) Convenience Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
66
3.49
65
3.31
101.820
237
12.58
242
12.37
98.089
Total Convenience per Person 90% of Non-Durable household goods per Person Alcohol (off-trade) per Person
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
1,377
73.10
1,398
71.55
98.550
67
3.57
66
3.40
101.364
137
7.26
183
9.37
74.690
1,884
100.00
1,953
100.00
96.460
Total Convenience per Person Food and non-alcoholic beverages per Person Newspapers and periodicals per Person Tobacco per Person Total Convenience per Person
2010 Total Expenditure per Person (in 2010 prices) Other Aggregations Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
254
28.05
216
25.09
117.795
59
6.46
62
7.16
94.987
Other Bulky Goods per Person
594
65.50
583
67.75
101.845
Core bulky goods per Person
907
100.00
861
100.00
105.355
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00
98.574
Core bulky goods per Person Core DIY Goods excluding gardening per Person Gardens, plants and flowers per Person
2010 Total Expenditure per Person (in 2010 prices) Prescription Costs Prescription costs per Person
193
0.00
195
Summary Demographics - Household and Population Estimates 2010 Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Household and Population Estimates 2010: Totals Population estimate 2010
17,907
0.00 62,279,718
0.00
0.029
Household estimate 2010
7,612
0.00 26,857,270
0.00
0.028
Population estimate 2010 Population Estimates 2010 - Summary Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Males 0-15
1,579
8.82
5,934,567
9.53
0.027
Females 0-15
1,549
8.65
5,658,149
9.09
0.027
100.00 62,279,718
100.00
0.029
Children and infants 0-15
Population estimate 2010
17,907
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Adults of Working Age Males 16-64
5,547
30.98 20,179,265
32.40
0.028
Females 16-59
4,922
27.48 18,293,704
29.37
0.027
17,907
100.00 62,279,718
100.00
0.029
Population estimate 2010
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Males 65+
1,637
9.14
4,534,684
7.28
0.036
Females 60+
2,674
14.93
7,679,349
12.33
0.035
100.00 62,279,718
100.00
0.029
Base
Base %
Penetration
48.94 30,648,516
49.21
0.029
Adults of Retirement Age
Population estimate 2010
17,907
Target
Target %
Population Estimates 2010 - Gender Males Females Population estimate 2010
8,763 9,144
51.06 31,631,202
50.79
0.029
17,907
100.00 62,279,718
100.00
0.029
Base %
Penetration
Target
Target %
Base
Population Estimates 2010 - Age Age 0-4
907
5.07
3,847,965
6.18
0.024
Age 5-14
1,986
11.09
7,007,698
11.25
0.028
Age 15-24
1,983
11.08
8,221,480
13.20
0.024
Age 25-34
1,841
10.28
8,205,254
13.17
0.022
Age 35-44
2,476
13.83
8,854,143
14.22
0.028
Age 45-54
2,591
14.47
8,536,833
13.71
0.030
Age 55-64
2,499
13.96
7,313,036
11.74
0.034
Age 65-74
2,016
11.26
5,394,015
8.66
0.037
Age 75-84
1,210
6.76
3,493,044
5.61
0.035
397
2.22
1,406,250
2.26
0.028
100.00 62,279,718
100.00
0.029
Age 85+ Population estimate 2010
17,907
Summary Demographics - Household and Population Projections Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Household Projections Household Projection 2030
9,941
0.00 32,704,685
0.00
0.030
Household Projection 2029
9,821
0.00 32,437,301
0.00
0.030
Household Projection 2028
9,715
0.00 32,164,731
0.00
0.030
Household Projection 2027
9,610
0.00 31,884,289
0.00
0.030
Household Projection 2026
9,495
0.00 31,606,965
0.00
0.030
Household Projection 2025
9,370
0.00 31,328,189
0.00
0.030
Household Projection 2024
9,261
0.00 31,046,013
0.00
0.030
Household Projection 2023
9,110
0.00 30,758,854
0.00
0.030
Household Projection 2022
9,020
0.00 30,465,752
0.00
0.030
Household Projection 2021
8,908
0.00 30,168,846
0.00
0.030
Household Projection 2020
8,760
0.00 29,872,869
0.00
0.029
Household Projection 2019
8,669
0.00 29,573,343
0.00
0.029
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Household Projections Household Projection 2018
8,557
0.00 29,270,717
0.00
0.029
Household Projection 2017
8,403
0.00 28,965,244
0.00
0.029
Household Projection 2016
8,305
0.00 28,660,608
0.00
0.029
Household Projection 2015
8,191
0.00 28,354,352
0.00
0.029
Household Projection 2014
8,078
0.00 28,046,710
0.00
0.029
Household Projection 2013
7,956
0.00 27,740,347
0.00
0.029
Household Projection 2012
7,799
0.00 27,441,875
0.00
0.028
Household Projection 2011
7,682
0.00 27,144,542
0.00
0.028
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 62,705,265
0.00
0.029
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 63,128,950
0.00
0.029
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 63,551,922
0.00
0.029
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 63,976,424
0.00
0.029
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2011 - Total Total Resident Population (2011)
18,005
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2012 - Total Total Resident Population (2012)
18,189
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2013 - Total Total Resident Population (2013)
18,408
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2014 - Total Total Resident Population (2014)
18,575
Population Projections 2015 Total Resident Population (2015) Population Projections 2015 - Summary
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Males 0-15 (2015)
1,588
8.47
6,084,524
9.45
0.026
Females 0-15 (2015)
1,545
8.24
5,805,048
9.01
0.027
100.00 64,401,348
100.00
0.029
Children and infants 0-15 (2015)
Total Resident Population (2015)
18,748
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Adults of Working Age (2015) Males 16-64 (2015)
5,648
30.12 20,455,244
31.76
0.028
Females 16-59 (2015)
5,071
27.05 18,643,664
28.95
0.027
18,748
100.00 64,401,348
100.00
0.029
Total Resident Population (2015)
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Males 65+ (2015)
1,969
10.50
5,257,199
8.16
0.038
Females 60+ (2015)
2,928
15.62
8,155,669
12.66
0.036
100.00 64,401,348
100.00
0.029
Base
Base %
Penetration
Adults of Retirement Age (2015)
Total Resident Population (2015)
18,748
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2015 - Gender Males (2015)
9,204
49.09 31,796,967
49.37
0.029
Females (2015)
9,544
50.91 32,604,381
50.63
0.029
18,748
100.00 64,401,348
100.00
0.029
Base %
Penetration
Total Resident Population (2015)
Target
Target %
Base
Population Projections 2015 - Age Age 0-4 (2015)
955
5.09
3,896,262
6.05
0.025
Age 5-14 (2015)
1,976
10.54
7,306,171
11.34
0.027
Age 15-24 (2015)
1,906
10.17
7,880,291
12.24
0.024
Age 25-34 (2015)
2,213
11.81
9,144,106
14.20
0.024
Age 35-44 (2015)
2,253
12.02
8,140,780
12.64
0.028
Age 45-54 (2015)
2,758
14.71
9,078,796
14.10
0.030
Age 55-64 (2015)
2,408
12.84
7,302,985
11.34
0.033
Age 65-74 (2015)
2,338
12.47
6,233,575
9.68
0.038
Age 75-84 (2015)
1,414
7.54
3,793,636
5.89
0.037
527
2.81
1,624,746
2.52
0.032
100.00 64,401,348
100.00
0.029
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 64,832,029
0.00
0.029
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 65,267,320
0.00
0.029
Age 85+ (2015) Total Resident Population (2015)
18,748
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2016 - Total Total Resident Population (2016)
18,914
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2017 - Total Total Resident Population (2017)
19,072
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 65,706,394
0.00
0.029
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 66,146,797
0.00
0.030
Population Projections 2018 - Total Total Resident Population (2018)
19,326
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2019 - Total Total Resident Population (2019)
19,517
Population Projections 2020 Total Resident Population (2020) Population Projections 2020 - Summary
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Males 0-15 (2020)
1,679
8.54
6,352,023
9.54
0.026
Females 0-15 (2020)
1,630
8.29
6,065,195
9.11
0.027
100.00 66,586,753
100.00
0.030
Base
Base %
Penetration
Children and infants 0-15 (2020)
Total Resident Population (2020)
19,669
Target
Target %
Adults of Working Age (2020) Males 16-64 (2020)
5,843
29.71 20,803,583
31.24
0.028
Females 16-59 (2020)
5,176
26.32 18,750,574
28.16
0.028
19,669
100.00 66,586,753
100.00
0.030
Total Resident Population (2020)
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Males 65+ (2020)
2,171
11.04
5,794,417
8.70
0.038
Females 60+ (2020)
3,170
16.12
8,820,961
13.25
0.036
100.00 66,586,753
100.00
0.030
Base
Base %
Penetration
Adults of Retirement Age (2020)
Total Resident Population (2020)
19,669
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2020 - Gender Males (2020)
9,693
49.28 32,950,023
49.48
0.029
Females (2020)
9,976
50.72 33,636,730
50.52
0.030
19,669
100.00 66,586,753
100.00
0.030
Total Resident Population (2020)
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Age 0-4 (2020)
1,025
5.21
3,987,739
5.99
0.026
Age 5-14 (2020)
2,090
10.63
7,764,278
11.66
0.027
Population Projections 2020 - Age
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Age 15-24 (2020)
1,804
9.17
7,487,793
11.25
0.024
Age 25-34 (2020)
2,362
12.01
9,467,424
14.22
0.025
Age 35-44 (2020)
2,398
12.19
8,380,268
12.59
0.029
Age 45-54 (2020)
2,666
13.56
8,678,919
13.03
0.031
Age 55-64 (2020)
2,623
13.34
8,125,360
12.20
0.032
Age 65-74 (2020)
2,419
12.30
6,534,870
9.81
0.037
Age 75-84 (2020)
1,607
8.17
4,241,541
6.37
0.038
675
3.43
1,918,561
2.88
0.035
100.00 66,586,753
100.00
0.030
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 67,023,974
0.00
0.030
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 67,456,331
0.00
0.030
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 67,883,315
0.00
0.030
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 68,299,888
0.00
0.030
Population Projections 2020 - Age
Age 85+ (2020) Total Resident Population (2020)
19,669
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2021 - Total Total Resident Population (2021)
19,894
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2022 - Total Total Resident Population (2022)
20,114
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2023 - Total Total Resident Population (2023)
20,274
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2024 - Total Total Resident Population (2024)
20,502
Population Projections 2025 Total Resident Population (2025) Population Projections 2025 - Summary
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Males 0-15 (2025)
1,770
8.55
6,474,686
9.42
0.027
Females 0-15 (2025)
1,715
8.28
6,184,151
9.00
0.028
100.00 68,708,445
100.00
0.030
Children and infants 0-15 (2025)
Total Resident Population (2025)
20,712
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Adults of Working Age (2025) Males 16-64 (2025)
6,100
29.45 21,166,269
30.81
0.029
Females 16-59 (2025)
5,271
25.45 18,743,054
27.28
0.028
20,712
100.00 68,708,445
100.00
0.030
Total Resident Population (2025)
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Males 65+ (2025)
2,383
11.51
6,404,833
9.32
0.037
Females 60+ (2025)
3,474
16.77
9,735,452
14.17
0.036
100.00 68,708,445
100.00
0.030
Base
Base %
Penetration
Adults of Retirement Age (2025)
Total Resident Population (2025)
20,712
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2025 - Gender Males (2025)
10,253
49.50 34,045,788
49.55
0.030
Females (2025)
10,459
50.50 34,662,657
50.45
0.030
Total Resident Population (2025)
20,712
100.00 68,708,445
100.00
0.030
Base %
Penetration
Target
Target %
Base
Population Projections 2025 - Age Age 0-4 (2025)
1,068
5.16
4,011,980
5.84
0.027
Age 5-14 (2025)
2,210
10.67
7,904,978
11.51
0.028
Age 15-24 (2025)
1,839
8.88
7,776,417
11.32
0.024
Age 25-34 (2025)
2,302
11.12
9,115,545
13.27
0.025
Age 35-44 (2025)
2,843
13.73
9,301,501
13.54
0.031
Age 45-54 (2025)
2,480
11.97
7,984,093
11.62
0.031
Age 55-64 (2025)
2,823
13.63
8,665,244
12.61
0.033
Age 65-74 (2025)
2,332
11.26
6,583,752
9.58
0.035
Age 75-84 (2025)
1,951
9.42
5,023,672
7.31
0.039
863
4.17
2,341,263
3.41
0.037
100.00 68,708,445
100.00
0.030
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 69,108,421
0.00
0.030
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 69,498,895
0.00
0.030
Age 85+ (2025) Total Resident Population (2025)
20,712
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2026 - Total Total Resident Population (2026)
20,929
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2027 - Total Total Resident Population (2027)
21,109
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 69,880,764
0.00
0.031
Base
Base %
Penetration
0.00 70,253,403
0.00
0.031
Population Projections 2028 - Total Total Resident Population (2028)
21,294
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2029 - Total Total Resident Population (2029)
21,477
Population Projections 2030 Total Resident Population (2030) Population Projections 2030 - Summary
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Males 0-15 (2030)
1,842
8.50
6,524,837
9.24
0.028
Females 0-15 (2030)
1,769
8.16
6,232,236
8.83
0.028
100.00 70,616,382
100.00
0.031
Base
Base %
Penetration
Children and infants 0-15 (2030)
Total Resident Population (2030)
21,674
Target
Target %
Adults of Working Age (2030) Males 16-64 (2030)
6,276
28.95 21,369,375
30.26
0.029
Females 16-59 (2030)
5,368
24.77 18,794,328
26.61
0.029
21,674
100.00 70,616,382
100.00
0.031
Total Resident Population (2030)
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Males 65+ (2030)
2,661
12.28
7,122,381
10.09
0.037
Females 60+ (2030)
3,758
17.34 10,573,225
14.97
0.036
21,674
100.00 70,616,382
100.00
0.031
Base
Base %
Penetration
Adults of Retirement Age (2030)
Total Resident Population (2030)
Target
Target %
Population Projections 2030 - Gender Males (2030)
10,778
49.73 35,016,593
49.59
0.031
Females (2030)
10,895
50.27 35,599,789
50.41
0.031
Total Resident Population (2030)
21,674
100.00 70,616,382
100.00
0.031
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Age 0-4 (2030)
1,066
4.92
3,981,449
5.64
0.027
Age 5-14 (2030)
2,325
10.73
8,025,895
11.37
0.029
Population Projections 2030 - Age
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Age 15-24 (2030)
1,964
9.06
8,218,665
11.64
0.024
Age 25-34 (2030)
2,204
10.17
8,734,740
12.37
0.025
Age 35-44 (2030)
3,010
13.89
9,637,141
13.65
0.031
Age 45-54 (2030)
2,652
12.24
8,215,089
11.63
0.032
Age 55-64 (2030)
2,764
12.75
8,309,374
11.77
0.033
Age 65-74 (2030)
2,596
11.98
7,359,762
10.42
0.035
Age 75-84 (2030)
2,019
9.32
5,301,212
7.51
0.038
Age 85+ (2030)
1,075
4.96
2,833,055
4.01
0.038
100.00 70,616,382
100.00
0.031
Base %
Penetration
Population Projections 2030 - Age
Total Resident Population (2030)
21,674
Target
Target %
Base
Summary Demographics - Experian Revised Household and Population Estimates 2010 Experian Revised Households
7,498
0.00 26,844,138
0.00
0.028
Experian Revised Population
17,680
0.00 62,266,570
0.00
0.028
Experian Revised Adults 15+
14,792
0.00 51,392,550
0.00
0.029
Experian Revised Adults 16+
14,562
0.00 50,657,368
0.00
0.029
Experian Revised Adults 18+
14,149
0.00 49,125,393
0.00
0.029
Base %
Penetration
Target
Target %
Base
Summary Demographics - Experian Revised Population Projections Experian Revised Population Projection 2011
17,774
0.00 62,695,436
0.00
0.028
Experian Revised Population Projection 2012
17,948
0.00 63,120,988
0.00
0.028
Experian Revised Population Projection 2013
18,174
0.00 63,545,518
0.00
0.029
Experian Revised Population Projection 2014
18,340
0.00 63,970,334
0.00
0.029
Experian Revised Population Projection 2015
18,505
0.00 64,395,474
0.00
0.029
Experian Revised Population Projection 2016
18,673
0.00 64,826,041
0.00
0.029
Experian Revised Population Projection 2017
18,830
0.00 65,260,988
0.00
0.029
Experian Revised Population Projection 2018
19,094
0.00 65,700,474
0.00
0.029
Experian Revised Population Projection 2019
19,283
0.00 66,139,540
0.00
0.029
Experian Revised Population Projection 2020
19,444
0.00 66,579,193
0.00
0.029
Experian Revised Population Projection 2021
19,662
0.00 67,014,839
0.00
0.029
Experian Revised Population Projection 2022
19,888
0.00 67,447,250
0.00
0.030
Experian Revised Population Projection 2023
20,049
0.00 67,875,852
0.00
0.030
Experian Revised Population Projection 2024
20,275
0.00 68,300,013
0.00
0.030
Experian Revised Population Projection 2025
20,481
0.00 68,715,690
0.00
0.030
Target
Target %
Base
Base %
Penetration
Summary Demographics - Experian Revised Population Projections Experian Revised Population Projection 2026
20,697
0.00 69,126,577
0.00
0.030
Experian Revised Population Projection 2027
20,880
0.00 69,527,778
0.00
0.030
Experian Revised Population Projection 2028
21,069
0.00 69,919,589
0.00
0.030
Experian Revised Population Projection 2029
21,248
0.00 70,303,172
0.00
0.030
Experian Revised Population Projection 2030
21,444
0.00 70,676,133
0.00
0.030
2011 Experian Ltd 2011 Experian Ltd, Data from the Living Costs and Food Survey 2008 and Living Costs and Food Survey 2009 has been made available by the Office for National Statistics and has been used by permission. The ONS do not bear any responsibility for the analysis. Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland
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