The Bulletin
Into the unknown Simon would normally be spending his days predicting the long-term future of the food industry, looking as far ahead as 2030. However, we are not living in ‘normal’ times, and by his own admission during a webinar for BFFF members in April, his report on the forecast through to 2030 is currently ‘completely irrelevant’ because it’s difficult to predict what the next few months hold. While the implications of the lock down are not yet fully clear, Simon outlined how the industry could re-emerge and what that involves.
With more than 30 years’ experience of working in, analysing and commentating on the UK foodservice and hospitality industry, Simon Stenning is the founder of www.futurefoodservice.com. At a time when the immediate future has never been more uncertain, Simon recently gave some insight into how the sector will re-emerge post-coronavirus.
Analysing the current figures, he said: “It is of course the largest channels that have been most dramatically affected through the lock down; we’ve lost so much of the eating out industry. And yet a quick check on Deliveroo for central London shows there are more than 400 operators working today. “There are even services delivering meals from Michelin starred restaurants, so there are some operators who have pivoted swiftly, reacting to the challenge of this new normal, and it’s fantastic to see.” He also highlighted that KFC, Burger King and Nandos are re-opening a handful of sites on the proviso that staff continue to work safely and not travel via public transport, something we’re seeing across Europe as certain sectors of the market start to re-emerge. These measures, he said, are also instrumental in helping get supply chains back into action. “Because everything has been turning off very quickly it’s going to take some time before it fully gets back up and running. Opening up small numbers of stores is going to be very helpful.” Simon also praised the commitment and hard work of many operators in supporting key workers, but also pointed out the business benefits of this approach: “By opening to serve key workers they’re going to be open for normal business as well. They’re also gaining credibility that will last for a long time once we get back to some form of normality.” He went on to accurately predict that around 15% of the fast food and takeaway market would be operating by the start of May with more opening as the lock down and social distancing are relaxed. But it is not just fast food sector continuing to operate. Pubs, Simon observed, are recognising their role in the heart of neighbourhoods.
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