FINAN CE

finance

Home construction heats up after winter freeze

Data Points Bryan Yu H ousing starts bounced higher in February following a weatherinduced January drop.

Urban B.C. housing starts came in at an annualized rate of 38,286 units, up 55% from the 24,561 units the previous month. In comparison, national housing starts edged lower by 2%. As is often the case, the large monthly swing owed to an increase in multi-family starts, although the number of singledetached starts also rebounded. Nevertheless, single-family starts declined through 2019, while multi-family starts have eased after robust gains in the first half of the year.

Despite February’s gains, starts over the first two months fell 18% from same-period 2019. Metro Vancouver-area starts fell 35%, while Victoria construction declined 8%. In contrast, starts in Kelowna (up 29%) and Abbotsford-Mission (up 165%) were well ahead of a year ago. Detached starts fell 12% to 784 units and multifamily starts declined 20% to 4,113 units through the first two months.

The outlook for new-home construction remains mixed. A tightening resale market, lower interest rate environment and population growth will sup port demand for new ownership housing. High rent, low

va cancy rates and government support contribute to new rental supply. That said, condominium starts are expected to slow t his year following weaker presale activity in 2018 and 2019, which is expected to dampen the pace of starts. Current eco nomic fears stemming from the s pread of COVID-19 are also a threat. Housing starts, inclu sive of rural B.C., are forecast t o decline more than 15% to 37,000 units this year.

While housing starts decline, B.C. construction will remain elevated. Record housing starts in 2019, extended construc tion times and labour market c onstraints have maintained a near-record level of units under construction. Units under con struction in B.C.’s four largest m etro areas reached 54,974 in February. While completions whittled it down from yearend highs, the number was 6% above year-ago levels. Work will continue through 2020, al though lower starts and project c ompletions will contribute to a downward trend.

In a sign of ongoing retail softness in 2020, new-vehicle sales remained in an earlyyear slump. Sales in the B.C. and territories region came in at 12,681 vehicles in Janu ary, down 14% year-over-year. W hile sales managed to rebound slightly from December b y 2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, a negative trend ex tending back to mid-2017 continued. Sales are trending at t he lowest level since mid-2014 despite a period of stronger employment and population growth. •

Bryan Yu is deputy chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.

housing starts rebound, trend down

Starts bounced higher in February following a sluggish January Large monthly swings occur in part because most housing starts are multi-family

Seasonally adjusted annual rate and trend 60,000

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Single-detached Trend Multi-family Trend Sourc es: CMHC, Centr al 1 Cr edit Uni on. Latest : Febru ary 2020

Rising number of homes under construction buoy sector But COVID-19 outbreak may stall work on many projects

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Units under construction 50,000

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1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Sourc es: CMHC, Centr al 1 Cr edit Uni on. Latest : Febru ary 2020

new-vehicle sales slowdowncontinues

Early-year slump is a sign of ongoing retail-sector softness Sales are trending at the lowest level since mid-2014

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2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 5,000

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Sourc eS: Statistics Canada, Centr al 1 Cr edit Uni on. Latest : Janu ary 2020

INSIDERTRADING

The following is a list of stock trades made by corporate executives, directors and other company insiders of B.C.’s public companies filed in the week ended March 18, 2020. The information comes from a compilation of required reports filed with the BC Securities Commission obtained from DisclosureNet.com.

Ins der: James A. Pattison, 10% owner Company: W est Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (TSX:WFT) Shares owned: 175,000 Trade date: March 11 Trade total: $2,806,500 Trade: Acquisition of 75,000 shares a t a price of $37.42 per share

Ins der: Tadeu Carneiro, director Company: I vanhoe Mines Ltd. (TSX:IVN) Shares owned: 460,986 Trade date: March 15 Trade total: $554,016 Trade: Acquisition of 237,000 shares a t prices ranging between $2.29 and $2.40 per share

Ins der: John Lee, director Company: S ilver Elephant Mining Corp. (TSX:PCY) Shares owned: 10,448,901 Trade date: March 12, 15, 17 Trade total: $309,400 Trade: Sale of 2,745,000 shares at p rices ranging between $0.11 and $0.12 per share

Ins der: Brian Alexander Paes-Braga, 10% owner Company: Th underbird Entertainment Group Inc. (TSXV:TBRD) Shares owned: 3,423,310 Trade date: March 13 Trade total: $273,750 Trade: Acquisition of 375,000 shares a t a price of $0.73 per share

Ins der: Scott Thomson, officer Company: F inning International Inc. (TSX:FTT) Shares owned: 197,108 Trade date: March 11 Trade total: $234,300 Trade: Acquisition of 16,500 shares a t a price of $14.20 per share

Ins der: Todd Olson Anthony, officer Company: F irst Majestic Silver Corp. (TSX:FR) Shares owned: 15,000 Trade date: March 16 Trade total: $216,750 Trade: Sale of 25,000 shares at a p rice of $8.67 per share

Ins der: Harold N. Kvisle, director Company: F inning International Inc. (TSX:FTT) Shares owned: 35,000 Trade date: March 12 Trade total: $197,100 Trade: Acquisition of 15,000 shares a t a price of $13.14 per share

Ins der: Daniel O’Flaherty, officer Company: M averix Metals Inc. (TSX:MMX) Shares owned: 3,180,517 Trade date: March 11, 12 Trade total: $187,899 Trade: Acquisition of 47,100 shares a t prices ranging between $3.51 and $4.15 per share

Ins der: Andrew William Bowering, officer Company: P rime Mining Corp. (TSXV:PRYM) Shares owned: 3,883,668 Trade date: March 11, 15 Trade total: $180,625 Trade: Acquisition of 552,500 shares a t prices ranging between $0.25 and $0.34 per share •