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BUSINESSVANCOUVER
March 23–29, 2020
finance
H
ousing starts bounced higher in February following a weatherinduced January drop. Urban B.C. housing starts came in at an annualized rate of 38,286 units, up 55% from the 24,561 units the previous month. In comparison, national housing starts edged lower by 2%. As is often the case, the large monthly swing owed to an increase in multi-family starts, although the number of singledetached starts also rebounded. Nevertheless, single-family starts declined through 2019, while multi-family starts have eased after robust gains in the first half of the year. Despite February’s gains, starts over the first two months fell 18% from same-period 2019. Metro Vancouver-area starts fell 35%, while Victoria construction declined 8%. In contrast, starts in Kelowna (up 29%) and Abbotsford-Mission (up 165%) were well ahead of a year ago. Detached starts fell 12% to 784 units and multifamily starts declined 20% to 4,113 units through the first two months. The outlook for new-home construction remains mixed. A tightening resale market, lower interest rate environment and population growth will support demand for new ownership housing. High rent, low
Large monthly swings occur in part because most housing starts are multi-family Seasonally adjusted annual rate and trend
Bryan Yu
Starts bounced higher in February following a sluggish January 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2010
2012
2014
2016
Single-detached
Trend
2018
Multi-family
2020
Trend
Sources: CMHC, Central 1 Credit Union. Latest: February 2020
Rising number of homes under construction buoy sector But COVID-19 outbreak may stall work on many projects 60,000 Units under construction
Data Points
vacancy rates and government support contribute to new rental supply. That said, condominium starts are expected to slow this year following weaker presale activity in 2018 and 2019, which is expected to dampen the pace of starts. Current economic fears stemming from the spread of COVID-19 are also a threat. Housing starts, inclusive of rural B.C., are forecast to decline more than 15% to 37,000 units this year. While housing starts decline, B.C. construction will remain elevated. Record housing starts in 2019, extended construction times and labour market constraints have maintained a near-record level of units under construction. Units under construction in B.C.’s four largest metro areas reached 54,974 in February. While completions whittled it down from yearend highs, the number was 6% above year-ago levels. Work will continue through 2020, although lower starts and project completions will contribute to a downward trend. In a sign of ongoing retail softness in 2020, new-vehicle sales remained in an earlyyear slump. Sales in the B.C. and territories region came in at 12,681 vehicles in January, down 14% year-over-year. While sales managed to rebound slightly from December by 2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, a negative trend extending back to mid-2017 continued. Sales are trending at the lowest level since mid-2014 despite a period of stronger employment and population growth. •
housing starts rebound, trend down
50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
Sources: CMHC, Central 1 Credit Union. Latest: February 2020
new-vehicle sales slowdown continues Early-year slump is a sign of ongoing retail-sector softness Sales are trending at the lowest level since mid-2014 25,000 20,000 Units
Home construction heats up after winter freeze
15,000 10,000 5,000 2010
2012
2014
2016
Seasonally adjusted
Bryan Yu is deputy chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
2018
2020
Actual
SourceS: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union. Latest: January 2020
INSIDERTRADING The following is a list of stock trades made by corporate executives, directors and other company insiders of B.C.’s public companies filed in the week ended March 18, 2020. The information comes from a compilation of required reports filed with the BC Securities Commission obtained from DisclosureNet.com.
Company: Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (TSX:IVN) Shares owned: 460,986 Trade date: March 15 Trade total: $554,016 Trade: Acquisition of 237,000 shares at prices ranging between $2.29 and $2.40 per share
Insider: James A. Pattison, 10% owner Company: West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (TSX:WFT) Shares owned: 175,000 Trade date: March 11 Trade total: $2,806,500 Trade: Acquisition of 75,000 shares at a price of $37.42 per share
Insider: John Lee, director Company: Silver Elephant Mining Corp. (TSX:PCY) Shares owned: 10,448,901 Trade date: March 12, 15, 17 Trade total: $309,400 Trade: Sale of 2,745,000 shares at prices ranging between $0.11 and $0.12 per share
Insider: Tadeu Carneiro, director
Insider: Brian Alexander
Paes-Braga, 10% owner Company: Thunderbird Entertainment Group Inc. (TSXV:TBRD) Shares owned: 3,423,310 Trade date: March 13 Trade total: $273,750 Trade: Acquisition of 375,000 shares at a price of $0.73 per share Insider: Scott Thomson, officer Company: Finning International Inc. (TSX:FTT) Shares owned: 197,108 Trade date: March 11 Trade total: $234,300 Trade: Acquisition of 16,500 shares at a price of $14.20 per share Insider: Todd Olson Anthony,
officer Company: First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSX:FR) Shares owned: 15,000 Trade date: March 16 Trade total: $216,750 Trade: Sale of 25,000 shares at a price of $8.67 per share
(TSX:MMX) Shares owned: 3,180,517 Trade date: March 11, 12 Trade total: $187,899 Trade: Acquisition of 47,100 shares at prices ranging between $3.51 and $4.15 per share
Insider: Harold N. Kvisle, director Company: Finning International Inc. (TSX:FTT) Shares owned: 35,000 Trade date: March 12 Trade total: $197,100 Trade: Acquisition of 15,000 shares at a price of $13.14 per share
Insider: Andrew William Bowering, officer Company: Prime Mining Corp. (TSXV:PRYM) Shares owned: 3,883,668 Trade date: March 11, 15 Trade total: $180,625 Trade: Acquisition of 552,500 shares at prices ranging between $0.25 and $0.34 per share •
Insider: Daniel O’Flaherty, officer Company: Maverix Metals Inc.
