AUKUS announcement signals rise of the Indo Pacific

The Afghanistan withdrawal and AUKUS announcement signal a sharpened US focus on the Indo Pacific. This has implications for New Zealand, writes Dr Wayne Mapp, not least in terms of future maritime capability decisions.

The end game in Afghanistan proved to be as traumatic as was ever feared. The sight of thousands of panicked Afghans at Kabul airport, with the ultimate denouement of ISIS-K terror bombings seemed a stark illustration of the impotence of the west. It was an ignominious end to the 20 years year’s intervention by the US led coalition, which at its peak involved more than 50 nations.

Naturally there were many commentators, both left and right, who saw this as the end of American leadership of the west. That hereafter the nations of the west would be aimlessly absorbed in their own internal morass while more capable and confident nations would assume the mantle of the true dispensers of power. These nations, China and Russia, would be able to impose their authoritarian approach across the world, most particularly in Asia.

Does the final failure in Afghanistan presage this outcome? That the west is in inevitable decline and the world has become a more dangerous and uncertain world for all who believe in a more liberal world order.

It is worth restating that the fundamental facts of great power relativities remain. The United States is the most powerful economic and military actor in the world. It is a continent spanning nation with nearly 400 million people.

Political discourse and government competence will be a variable factor changing from administration to administration, perhaps more evident in recent years. Nevertheless, it is not immediately obvious that the United States is suffering such a fundamental loss of confidence that marks the current era apart from previous times of political disturbance as existed two generations ago in the 1960s and 1970s.

Most pertinent for New Zealand is the fact the United States has sovereign territory right across the Pacific. In this regard, World War Two, and in particular, the Pacific War casts a long shadow.

Even if the United States reduces its global footprint, the last place this would occur is in the Pacific. In fact, it is likely that the United States presence in the Pacific will increase as resources are shifted into this region. There is a deep consensus in the United States, right across the entire body politic, that the United States must be the preeminent power within the Pacific.

The recent announcement of the Australia, United Kingdom and United States alliance (AUKUS) reaffirmed United States’ commitment to lead within the Pacific. For Australia this is the most significant defence arrangement since the formation of ANZUS.

It’s not just the nature of the membership, but also what is being proposed. Australia would be moving into the top rank of middle powers, with the acquisition of at least eight nuclear powered submarines. These new submarines will be based on either the British Astute class or the American Virginia class.

The arrangement is also the first major foreign policy outcome of Brexit. No longer will Britain view its international relations through the lens of the EU. Britain will make its own assessment of a changing world.

As it happens, Britain is rebuilding its traditional relationships, with the added benefit that this is taking place in the most dynamic part of the world, the HMNZS Aotearoa. Image: NZDF. Indo Pacific. When contrasted to the prior concept of the Asia Pacific, the Indo Pacific has a distinctly more maritime flavor. The Asian continent is dominated by China; the Indo Pacific is not.

The idea of the Indo Pacific rests on securing the maritime routes of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The four nations of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) India, Australia, Japan and the United States, have an extensive maritime heritage. It now seems certain that Britain will also join the Quad as a core member. The Quad nations have also developed broader connections with the Quad Plus group, which includes New Zealand.

The Quad nations have been active in organising naval exercises as their preeminent defence activity. AUKUS will be a substantial boost to the naval combat power of the Quad. It will mean three of the four nations of the Quad will have nuclear submarines, with the Harpoon cruise missile providing long range attack capability.

Although there is speculation that the combination of the Quad and AUKUS will be the nucleus of an emerging NATO type organisation, this is unlikely. The Quad nations will not act in concert in the manner of NATO. Their interests are too diverse for that. There are many potential flash points in the Indo Pacific that would only engage the interests of two or three of the Quad nations.

The complicating point for China is that it will not be able to definitively determine on any particular issue how many Quad nations would choose to be engaged. Depending on the location of the conflict and the specific issues in play, it is also quite possible that other nations may join the Quad nations. Some of these, notably Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam, as well as other ASEAN nations, have sufficient naval capability to be able to make a real difference.

The announcement of AUKUS has significant implications for New Zealand. One of the AUKUS members, Australia, is New Zealand’s only formal defence ally. As a result, the strategic pressure upon New Zealand has just increased.

New Zealand will have to quickly decide the extent to which it wants to be engaged with both AUKUS and the Quad. The dominant nation within these two groupings, the United States, remains an extremely important partner for New Zealand. It is inevitable there will be an expectation that New Zealand has a proper level of engagement and the ablity to contribute meaningful military capability.

Looking to the future means assessing the nature of the military capabilities that will be useful in the maritime domain. The P8 Poseidon aircraft, the ANZAC frigates, and the new sustainment ship, HMNZS Aotearoa stand out. As the NZDF notes, the Aotearoa is a “technologically enhanced asset that can add real value to combat operations.”

As readers will have noted with the UK Carrier Strike Group, led by HMS Queen Elizabeth, two of the nine ships in the group were RFA tankers, Tidespring and Fort Victoria. The Aotearoa would have comfortably fitted within such a carrier group. More pertinently the Aotearoa is one third of the tanker capability of the Australian and New Zealand navies.

The critical issue now facing New Zealand is the replacement of the ANZAC frigates, which are more than midway through their life, notwithstanding the recent major upgrade of their combat systems. While both ships are likely to remain in service to the mid 2030s, that means planning for the replacement needs to start now.

I have been arguing in this publication that it would be credible for New Zealand to move to an all patrol fleet. However, I now believe that AUKUS makes that a moot argument. New Zealand will be expected to make a more meaningful contribution than patrol vessels.

New Zealand will need to replace the ANZAC frigates with ships with at least a similar level of combat capability. Being in a military alliance, as we are with Australia, has obligations as well as advantages. In this instance the obligation is to provide maritime naval capability with real combat power.

It is noteworthy that Australia, Britain and Canada already have a joint programme to replace their aging frigates with the British designed Type 26 frigate. These ships cost around $4 billion each, which would almost certainly be regarded as too expensive by any likely New Zealand government.

However, Britain is also building the Type 31 frigate, which is similar in size to the ANZAC ships. They have been designed as having either high or low end combat capability, and cost between $1 and $2 billion, depending on their level of capability. In real terms this is comparable to the cost of the ANZAC ships that came into service a quarter of a century ago. There is an opportunity to replace both the two ANZAC frigates and the two OPVs with a high low mix of ships based on a common platform, as is possible with the Type 31 frigate.

The Labour New Zealand First coalition had the foresight to replace both the P3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft and the C130 Hercules. The announcement of AUKUS makes it imperative that the current Labour majority government get on with replacing the ANZAC frigates. With the changed strategic environment, this is not a decision that can be put off beyond the next election. New Zealand’s principal strategic partner, Australia, can reasonably expect that we will carry our fair share of alliance obligations.

Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO was New Zealand’s Minister of Defence and Minister of Science and Innovation from 2008 to 2011.