INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AUKUS announcement signals rise of the Indo Pacific
The Afghanistan withdrawal and AUKUS announcement signal a sharpened US focus on the Indo Pacific. This has implications for New Zealand, writes Dr Wayne Mapp, not least in terms of future maritime capability decisions.
Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO was New Zealand’s Minister of Defence and Minister of Science and Innovation from 2008 to 2011.
38
The end game in Afghanistan proved to be as traumatic as was ever feared. The sight of thousands of panicked Afghans at Kabul airport, with the ultimate denouement of ISIS-K terror bombings seemed a stark illustration of the impotence of the west. It was an ignominious end to the 20 years year’s intervention by the US led coalition, which at its peak involved more than 50 nations. Naturally there were many commentators, both left and right, who saw this as the end of American leadership of the west. That hereafter the nations of the west would be aimlessly absorbed in their own internal morass while more capable and confident nations would assume the mantle of the true dispensers of power. These nations, China and Russia, would be able to impose their authoritarian approach across the world, most particularly in Asia. Does the final failure in Afghanistan presage this outcome? That the west is in inevitable decline and the world has become a more dangerous and uncertain world for all who believe in a more liberal world order. It is worth restating that the fundamental facts of great power relativities remain. The United States is the most powerful economic and military actor in the world. It is a continent spanning nation with nearly 400 million people. Political discourse and government competence will be a variable factor changing from administration to administration, perhaps more evident in recent years. Nevertheless, it is not immediately obvious that the United States is suffering such a fundamental loss of confidence that marks the
current era apart from previous times of political disturbance as existed two generations ago in the 1960s and 1970s. Most pertinent for New Zealand is the fact the United States has sovereign territory right across the Pacific. In this regard, World War Two, and in particular, the Pacific War casts a long shadow. Even if the United States reduces its global footprint, the last place this would occur is in the Pacific. In fact, it is likely that the United States presence in the Pacific will increase as resources are shifted into this region. There is a deep consensus in the United States, right across the entire body politic, that the United States must be the preeminent power within the Pacific. The recent announcement of the Australia, United Kingdom and United States alliance (AUKUS) reaffirmed United States’ commitment to lead within the Pacific. For Australia this is the most significant defence arrangement since the formation of ANZUS. It’s not just the nature of the membership, but also what is being proposed. Australia would be moving into the top rank of middle powers, with the acquisition of at least eight nuclear powered submarines. These new submarines will be based on either the British Astute class or the American Virginia class. The arrangement is also the first major foreign policy outcome of Brexit. No longer will Britain view its international relations through the lens of the EU. Britain will make its own assessment of a changing world. As it happens, Britain is rebuilding its traditional relationships, with the added benefit that this is taking place in the most dynamic part of the world, the
Line of Defence
