DEFENCE
Does New Zealand spend enough on Defence? Dr Wayne Mapp writes that if New Zealand is to provide its Defence Force with modern platforms capable of interoperability with partners, it will need to maintain defence expenditure at 1.5 percent of GDP over the next decade.
Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO was New Zealand’s Minister of Defence and Minister of Science and Innovation from 2008 to 2011.
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The new AUKUS security pact raises the question of whether New Zealand spends enough on defence. AUKUS proposes major new defence expenditure, particularly by Australia on the proposed fleet of eight nuclear powered submarines. The United Kingdom will also have to spend more to build up its naval fleet, if it is to have a serious presence in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The proposed Royal Navy fleet of eight Type 26 frigates and five Type 31 frigates is not nearly enough for such global aspirations. Similarly, with the seven Astute submarines, which is actually one less than the eight submarines Australia intends to acquire. The Defence Assessment released on 8 December reinforces the point. AUKUS was the signal that Australia recognises that it needs new capabilities for the Pacific. The Defence Assessment, which specifically states that China is driving a more competitive strategic environment in the Pacific, should serve the same purpose for New Zealand. The Defence Assessment reinforces that New Zealand must replace the ANZAC frigates no later than the early to mid 2030s. Australia and the United Kingdom have been increasing their defence expenditure for a number of years. In Australia’s case, defence expenditure has substantially increased from 1.6 percent of GDP in 2014 to 2.0 percent in 2020. The increase in the United Kingdom has come off a higher base, rising from 1.9 percent of GDP in 2017 to 2.2 percent in 2020. In both countries there has been a real increase in capability, particularly in air and naval assets. Both countries
have acquired the F35 fighter aircraft. The United Kingdom has two new aircraft carriers and Australia has three air warfare destroyers with some limited ABM capability. Australia and the United Kingdom are also in the middle of replacing their 25 year old frigates with new and much more capable Type 26 frigates. For many western countries, particularly in Europe, the last major expenditure programmes were toward the end of the Cold War. The major assets bought during this period are now thirty years old. As a consequence, most NATO nations are in the middle of acquiring major new equipment. The F35 aircraft is perhaps the most striking of these platforms, but it can also be seen in the push to renew naval fleets, both in submarines and new naval combat ships. Defence expenditure can be calculated in a number of ways. The usual international standard, used by NATO, combines both operational expenditure and capital expenditure. Therefore, a major capital spending plan will drive up expenditure, even if operating expenditure and personnel numbers remain the same. Major equipment programmes take decades to fulfil, and their capital cost is typically spread over many years. The standard NATO approach of assessing defence expenditure is to include capital expenditure as it is actually made. A period of substantial capital expenditure will drive up defence spending. Conversely when few capital items are purchased, overall defence expenditure will decrease. The New Zealand approach to assessing defence expenditure has modified over time. From 1992 to 2018,
Line of Defence
