MQ-9B SeaGuardian and Tonga’s Natural Disaster Situation

Situation Readiness and flexibility aren’t only critical in the event of human-caused crises or conflicts.

On 15 January this year, the Hunga Tonga Huga Ha’apai volcano erupted. Tsunami waves of up to 15 m caused death, injury and significant damage across the Tongan island chain. The undersea cable providing Tonga’s external communication, including Internet, was severed, directly affecting commercial and private communications. Tonga’s main airport runway was out of action due to significant ash fall until 20 January. More than 80 percent of the Tongan population was reportedly affected.

New Zealand’s response to the disaster was rapid and involved a whole-of-government approach, including with use of Defence assets. RNZAF P-3K2 aircraft flying from New Zealand conducted surveillance from 17 January – earlier surveillance was not possible due to the ash cloud and ash on the runway. The onstation period for the P-3K2 would have been around 3 hours if operating from Ohakea or about 5-6 hours if recovering to Fiji. Royal Australian Air Force P-8s from Amberley conducted surveillance starting 17 January but would have been limited to around 2 hours on-station with recovery to Amberley or up to 5 hours on-station if recovering to Fiji. The first RNZN support vessel arrived within several days of the disaster.

When responding to such disasters, drawing on the force-inbeing is necessary. However, when analyzing how such a response may have been improved, it’s worth considering the potential use of

The undersea eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano on 15 January 2022. Image: Tonga Meteorological Services / EyePress via AFP other assets. This article assesses how the MQ-9B SeaGuardian Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS), if operated by New Zealand, could have provided vital situational awareness and utility to first responders in the wake of the disaster, particularly during the critical first few days and weeks. MQ-9B Capabilities The MQ-9B SeaGuardian is a long-range, long-endurance RPAS, capable of carrying a range of powerful payloads on missions exceeding 30 hours, based on a 6,000 lb/2,700 kg fuel load. It can operate in an auto take-off and landing mode from 4,000-foot airstrips,

with a small-deployed footprint and a maintenance turnaround time between sorties not exceeding 2 hours. It exhibits very high reliability, availability and cost effectiveness.

In the context of missions to support Tonga’s volcano and tsunami disaster, the MQ-9B SkyGuardian could be configured with its standard fit of a Lynx multi-mode radar capable of highresolution Synthetic Aperture Radar imaging and a 20+ inch EO/IR sensor for day/night imaging. A SkyTower pod to provide broadband communication services to high-priority users could also be carried. In this configuration, the maximum practical sortie duration would be 32 hours. Communications would be conducted via SATCOM for control, sensor data and video. Realtime video transmission to tactical platforms (ships and land support forces) could also be affected through a line-of sight data link.

SeaGuardian’s transit speed to and from the search area would be 180 knots, with an on-station speed of 150 knots. The transit altitude would be 25,000-35,000 feet, with the on-station altitude varying between 5,000 and 25,000 feet, depending on environmental conditions and the intelligence sought.

The Ground Control Station for the SeaGuardian would consist of three personnel per shift (pilot, sensor operator, Mission Commander/extra payload operator), with 24-hour operations requiring two crews. For 24-hour operations involving two aircraft, a total of six support (mech and tech) personnel would be required. Satellite communication enables the crew to work from anywhere – at a home airbase, a national military headquarters, or integrated with an incident response command center, if necessary. Time of Task Should the SeaGuardian operate on a Ohakea-Tonga-Ohakea mission, the transit distance each way would be 1,240nmi/2,300km requiring an 8-hour transit each way, providing 10 hours of time on-station in Tonga for surveillance and reporting. For operations from Auckland/ Whenuapai in place of Ohakea, the transit time would be reduced by one hour each way to achieve 12 hours on-station.

If, on the other hand, the first mission departed Ohakea, conducted its surveillance over Tonga and then

Aircraft Time On Time On Time On Station from Station with Station with Ohakea recovery to operations Fiji from Fiji MQ-9B SeaGuardian 10 hours 15 hours 20 hours P-3 Orion 4 hours 6 hours 8 hours

recovered to Fiji, the total transit time would be 11 hours with 15 hours on-station. If subsequent mission were flown out of Fiji, the total time on-station over Tonga would be 20 hours.

When comparing SeaGuardian performance to that of the P-3K2 Orion, the latter transits at around twice the speed, offering a faster response: for a transit from Ohakea to Tonga, the P-3 would take around 3.5 hours while the SeaGuardian would require 7 hours. However, for the important time on-station, the Orion would achieve a maximum of 4 hours while the SeaGuardian around 10 hours. When comparing the operating costs for the two platforms, the single engine turbo-prop cost-effectiveness of the SeaGuardian becomes even more evident. When comparing the P-8A Poseidon (due to enter RNZAF service in 2023) and the SeaGuardian in this context, it’s important to note that while the P-8A will transit faster, it will have a slightly reduced time on-station compared to the Orion; hence, the cost-effectiveness of the SeaGuardian would remain high.

In considering tasking opportunities for a SeaGuardian in the Tongan volcano/tsunami disaster, and utilizing the SeaGuardian’s long endurance and multi-sensor fit, the following options would be available: • Pre-disaster monitoring and infrastructure mapping by using high-resolution Synthetic

Aperture Radar, followed by post-disaster mapping and the use of coherent change detection (CCD) algorithms to rapidly

identify areas of damage. Volcano wall monitoring is feasible and has been demonstrated previously by MQ-9 RPAS, with CCD mapping following disasters involving earthquakes, fires, and hurricanes all previously employed by government authorities. • Visual (EO/IR) and Radar search for survivors and those requiring immediate assistance, including those washed out to sea; • Real-time imagery for infrastructure damage assessment, particularly for the arrival of other emergency personnel, platforms and equipment; • Stores drops to survivors and isolated communities for items such as small quantities of emergency supplies, radios and equipment; • Communication relay facilities for a range of terrestrial communication devices; • Broadband communications utilising a SkyTower pod to provide services in the absence of terrestrial capabilities.

This capability is ideal where earthquakes/tsunamis and hurricanes, for example, destroy or badly damage the normal communications infrastructure; • A laser depth sounder pod could be carried to provide assessments for shipping channels and ports; and • The conduct of fisheries surveillance to guard against opportunistic poaching could be undertaken while the Tongan

Navy’s focused on emergency recovery activity.

Relative surveillance challenges During the Tongan natural disaster, all aviation assets suffered limitations initially due to the presence of the ash cloud and ash on Tonga’s main airfield. And operations from Tonga, once the

ash threat was eliminated, were restricted by the fear of visiting personnel introducing COVID to the islands. Hence, airborne surveillance and other support missions needed to stage from outside of Tonga, thereby limiting time on-station available.

For the SeaGuardian, one unique challenge if operators chose to operate from Fiji would be the need to acquire approval from Fiji’s Civil Aviation Authority. This challenge could be mitigated by establishing operating approvals from nations across New Zealand’s area of interest well prior to potential employment. But what makes the MQ-9B unique among its class of aircraft is its certifiable Detect and Avoid System, which enables the aircraft to pass through civil airspace in ways just like human-piloted aircraft do, with no need for any special accommodations by aviation authorities or air traffic controllers. Just last summer, GA-ASI, the Royal Air Force and the Royal Netherlands Air Force flew an MQ-9B through civil airspace over the North Sea, which required coordination between the UK’s and Netherlands’ airspace authorities, just like a manned flight.

Another challenge in operating from any forward operating base is the footprint for the aircraft, in terms of personnel, support equipment and fuel. In these respects, the SeaGuardian shines when compared to an aircraft like the P-3 Orion, which requires a fuel load of around 25,000 kg, a long, strong airstrip and a sizeable support crew for extended operations. With a deployed footprint of just six personnel for two aircraft over an extended period, a single pallet of support equipment and 6,000 lb/2,700 kg of fuel per mission, and a 4,000 ft runway, the SeaGuardian requirements at a forward operating base are relatively modest and a lowcarbon footprint alternative.

Summary For regular military or civilian overland, littoral or maritime surveillance and communication support roles, the MQ-9B SeaGuardian has flexible and proven capabilities. With this capability comes the ability to provide rapid and flexible response options in a wide range of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief scenarios. When assessed against the ability to contribute to disasters like the recent Tongan volcano/ tsunami, the SeaGuardian could provide valuable and cost-effective surveillance and communications support in the lead-up to any disaster and in the initial days and weeks following. SeaGuardian’s ability to provide lengthy time on-station, even if operating from New Zealand, contrasts it to other large, manned platforms which are less costeffective in this role. Accordingly, SeaGuardian’s value to New Zealand and across the broader South Pacific warrants’ close consideration through acquisition or lease.