From the AHA National President

A Fractured ‘Body Politic’ Makes Your AHA More Important Than Ever

SCOTT LEACH - AHA NATIONAL PRESIDENT

AHA|SA President David Basheer is currently on leave.

“…democracy is the worst form of government – except for all the others that have been tried…” Winston Churchill

The famous British Prime Minister would know the truth of those words. In July 1945 the great wartime leader was unceremoniously booted from office after leading Britain to victory over Nazi Germany that same year.

Proving once again the public usually won’t thank you for what you’ve done – but are more interested in what you are going to do.

Churchill’s words and his fate sprang to mind as I watched the election results roll in on the night of Saturday, 21 May from behind the bar at The Rose of Australia.

It soon became clear our former PM Scott Morrison was to share Churchill’s fate – despite steering Australia through the choppy waters of the pandemic relatively unscathed.

What also became rapidly clear on election night was the fracturing of our body politic – perhaps permanently.

Labor won the election with a majority – just (and congratulations to Anthony Albanese for proving a boy from a housing commission in the backblocks of the Inner West can make it to the top office in the land).

In fact, we are lucky to have a man of Albanese’s character in the top job at this time. As the manager of house business in the Gillard era he was able to use his considerable negotiating skills to steer more than 300 pieces of legislation through Parliament. This made her Government one of the most productive in our history despite being in minority.

Those skills will be needed yet again as election night saw Labor return to power with less than 33 percent of the vote, with one in three voters turning to independents or minor parties.

The rise of the teals and a new crossbench of 16 in the lower house (and my congratulations to them all) marks the fracturing of our Parliamentary system.

For good or ill - depending on your views - I believe it is here to stay.

The voting figures speak for themselves.

In 1951 almost 98% of the vote went to the two major parties – in 2022 that figure was at an all-time low of 68.5%.

And once elected, Independents have a way of increasing their majorities.

Just have a look at that great friend of our industry (yes I’m being sarcastic) Andrew Willkie. In the 2010 Federal election, Wilkie, in the Tasmanian seat of Denison, was elected on a primary vote of 21.3 per cent, following strong preference flows from the Greens (19%) and Labor (35.8%). By the 2019 election he had turned that into a primary vote of 50%! In May he still managed 45.54 % of the primary despite strong challenges from Labor (18.76%), Liberal (15.85%) and Greens (13.45%) candidates.

In North Sydney, Independent Kylee Tink won the formerly blueribbon seat from the Liberals Trent Zimmerman with a primary vote of 25.20 % compared with Zimmerman’s 38.05 %.

The seat of former Liberal Minister Julie Bishop (Curtin, WA) was taken by independent candidate Kate Chaney, on a primary vote of 29.46% despite the Liberals receiving 41.33% of first preferences.

In the Western Sydney seat of Fowler, Independent candidate Dai Le was elected with a primary vote of 29.51 compared to Labor’s Kristina Keneally’s 36.06%.

Minor parties benefited from the fracturing of the body politic too.

In the Queensland seat of Ryan, Greens candidate Elizabeth Watson- Brown was declared elected on a primary vote of 30.21% - the LNP incumbent received 38.5%. In nearby Brisbane, the Greens candidate was again successful with a primary vote of 27.24, in comparison to the LNP’s 37.71%.

I could go on…

My point is this: fracturing of the body politic means the Government now has to deal with a block of crossbenchers and minor parties in the lower house (many with differing agendas, views and motives) as well as a Senate in which they do not have a majority (and probably never will).

It also means organisations like the Australian Hotels Association have never been more important.

For more than 100 years the Federal Parliament has had a stable lower house with most Governments having a comfortable majority. The AHA dealt with Labor or the Coalition on policies beneficial to our members, their workers and the millions of Australians who use our venues.

We have been the voice of reason and common-sense and while we might not win every battle, we are always heard.

That dynamic has shifted. We are now dealing with a range of elected lower house MPs with a wide range of views and perspectives who are keen to make a mark.

A single publican – already working around the clock on his or her business – does not have the time or resources to cope with the political structure as well.

Never has having a strong voice on the ground in Canberra been more important and we are very lucky to have our CEO Stephen Ferguson down there telling it like it is.

Never has having the proper resources in place in Canberra been more important - and it has one of the reasons the AHA NSW head of Communications and Media Jason Bartlett has been tapped to also work at the national level (given his strong background in media and politics).

Never has having properly resourced strong state and territory branches been more important.

We need stability and certainty to run our businesses and employ our staff – to do this securely we need the shield of the AHA family representing us at the highest levels in Canberra, in Sydney, in Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin and Brisbane and the regions.

I am proud of the teams we have in place at the state and federal levels and the job they all do, so we can do ours.

Federal issues affect each and every one of us – from immigration rules to health edicts and, of course, the ceaseless lobbying of the anti-alcohol, anti-gaming, anti-fun brigades. Rest assured they are already beating down the doors of new MPS pushing their agendas.

With elections in Victoria towards the end of this year and in NSW in March next year it will be interesting to see what happens – particularly if the ‘Teal Independents” can replicate their extraordinary success at the state level and we see an increasing fragmentation of state politics.

After all – anything can happen in politics… even Churchill was voted back into office in 1951 at the age of 77.