WORKSHOPS
Are changes ahead for China’s trade lanes because of the perceived trend toward isolationism under the presidency of Donald Trump?”
ASK AN EXPERT
Mac Sullivan, Trade Lane Manager GREC – Transpacific TOLL GLOBAL FORWARDING Mac Sullivan is currently the Greater China Trade Lane Manager (Transpacific) for Toll Global Forwarding. His primary focus is to lead and drive the overall budgeted volume and gross profit on one of Toll’s most important bilateral trade lanes: China-U.S. Mac works closely with Greater China and USA product and commercial teams.
Based on Trump’s policy rhetoric post-election, it is my personal opinion that he will very much lean towards whatever is the popular opinion in the U.S. at the moment, which makes this a hard question to answer. While I believe some Americans perceive China as threatening American jobs, the facts don’t support this argument. Chinese investment and imports into the U.S. have had more positive aspects than negative, such as increased jobs and access to cheap goods. Also, let’s not forget that China is America’s third-largest export trade partner. According to Seabury, U.S. to China trade is up 6%, while it was down 2% on Trans-Pacific eastbound from January to September during the pre-election period this year. I doubt Trump the businessman would want to
mess with this U.S.-advantaged trend supporting its GDP. U.S. multinationals and farmers have a lot at stake if he were to incite a trade war with China. You know, while Trump has threatened a 45% tariff on Chinese goods, I personally don’t believe that he will even implement the 15% increase that he is allotted as president in the first 150 days. Breakbulk and project cargo on the TP trade lane have bigger problems to worry about, such as the slumping commodity markets, unclear direction of the global markets and the instability of the shipping industry. In summary, if TPP does get nixed by Trump, and the U.S. public gets access to more information about the potential price hikes, they will face the fact that the jobs that were lost to China in the past two decades aren’t coming back. BB
Mac is an American and has been in Shanghai, China since 2010. He is one of six instructors for Breakbulk China’s Education Day and will provide an overview of land transportation. Here we ask him a question that has been on our minds since Donald Trump was elected president of the United States.
RELATED WORKSHOP Tuesday, 14 March, 09:00 – 16:00
EDUCATION DAY For information email Elizabeth Wetzel, Education Manager, at ewetzel@breakbulk.com CH14 BREAKBULK CHINA PREVIEW www.breakbulk.com/china
ISSUE 6 / 2016