An Analysis of Eastern and Western Foreign Investment with a Focus on the Balkans; The Stall and the Lack of Transparency of the Modern European Union
Theo Chitkushev
Senior Thesis | 2024
An Analysis of Eastern and Western Foreign Investment with a Focus on the Balkans; The Stall and the Lack of
Transparency of the Modern European Union
Theo Chitkushev
Boston University Academy 12 April 2024
Abstract
In regions that are actively accepting foreign investment, there is typically a choice to be made by smaller countries, a choice of alignment. In the Balkans, every country has its own strategy dictated by historical factors and modern political will. Few commit fully to one side. Serbia remains very closely aligned with Russia and China while also officially maintaining her EU candidate status and, therefore, keeping her doors open to free trade and investment from the EU.1 Others, like Croatia, have a similar strategy that leans slightly westward. Croatia is integrated into Western Europe as a full EU, NATO, and Schengen member state. However, Croatia still maintains exceptionally close ties with Russia, something that it can get away with given her small size and relative insignificance.2 Given their internal politics, other
1 “ŠTOKINGER: Samo je Srbija istinski neutralna u Evropi”. Novosti (online). March 23, 2024 Saturday.
2 “Krsticevic na forumu Pojas i put: Hrvatska i Kina otvorile novu stranicu u odnosima”. HINA Daily News Service. April 26, 2019 Friday.
countries, such as North Macedonia, are more committed to maintaining human rights. As the only integrated multinational state in the Balkans, North Macedonia uniquely must confront her nationalistic issues head-on. In doing so, it finds a greater Europe unempathetic to her unique struggles.3 The majority of Europe faces ethnoreligious issues from an influx of migrants rather than conflicting groups pertaining to an ancestral homeland due to successful campaigns of ethnic cleansing and relocation in the past centuries. This complicates the issue of what effective Western foreign policy is as Western powers fundamentally fail to understand the struggles faced by the rest of the world.4 This paper will analyze these questions and explore a path forward for further Western integration of these ideas.
3 “Ванковска: На Македонија
војни”. A1on. April 6, 2024 Saturday.
4 “Azbej: Hungary and Italy support a Europe of sovereign, strong nation-states”. Hungarian News Digest. April 10, 2024 Wednesday.
The dynamics and goals of foreign investment vary from state to state, but they are fundamentally never altruistic. The countries that engage in the investment benefit in various ways. However, there are two main types: return-on-investment-oriented loans and soft power-oriented aid. A government trying to achieve a return on its investment would donate to a promising or rapidly developing country to benefit its citizens with infrastructure and get that debt paid back. An example is the Chinese investment in Eastern Europe, initiated by the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC+China).
Chinese investment typically provides immediate necessary infrastructure, such as highways or railways, with an expectation that debt will be resolved later. Land is also often used as collateral for these loans. China, of course, also extends its soft power through these initiatives.5 The other main type of investment, 5 Georgi Gotev. “Lithuania quits 'divisive' China 17+1 group”. EurActiv.com. May 24, 2021 Monday.
focusing on soft power, is most notably done by the US. Many US grants or initiatives (such as the notable Marshall Plan) included aid that did not need to be paid back. However, the US did not give these grants out of the goodness of her heart. It proved potentially advantageous to improve the economic standing of US allies after the Second World War in order to establish a tight web of globally significant US allies.6 Similar ideas govern the policy behind funding many of America’s foreign wars.
Israel, historically a US money sink, proves a critical ally both because of its dependence on America to fund its apartheid regime and its location of great strategic import. American bases and military strongholds are easiest to establish in areas where US influence was a product of war since military presence can be quite reasonably defended.7 Following the 1999 NATO bombing
6 Jean Lemierre. “Rebuilding the Balkans, brick by brick ; Investing in stability”. The International Herald Tribune. May 23, 2005 Monday.
7 John Bacon. “At UN court, Palestinians say Israel has enforced ‘colonialism and apartheid’”. USA Today. February 20, 2024 Tuesday.
campaign, camp Bondsteel was established in southern Kosovo. At this point, Kosovo had not yet declared its independence and was doubtless an autonomous province of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (then consisting of only Serbia and Montenegro).
Bondsteel represented a demonstration of American influence and soft power in the region that could only be achieved with the justification of “continuing to protect the Kosovar people.”8 While the result is debatable, America’s motives are not. The only motivation for these actions is to further the reaches of the American sphere of influence.
The EU is a curious actor. The EU acts both as a state and not as one. However, it fundamentally always acts for its own benefit. The EU has various policies in different parts of the world. Notably, the EU has a policy of equals when dealing with the West (NATO, Australia, and EFTA countries, etc.) and an unclear and
8 States News Service. “A QUARTER CENTURY AFTER LIBERATION, KOSOVO SUFFERS FROM AMERICA'S TIGHT EMBRACE”. States News Service. March 8, 2024.
often dishonest policy with its immediate “neighborhood” and candidate countries. With the West Balkans, the EU made commitments towards integration with the 2003 Thessaloniki summit but has tacitly been walking back on those commitments and moving the goalpost to EU accession for Balkan states. With Africa, Asia, and other post-colonial nations, the EU distinctly uses language that elevates its status and further holds an unequal relationship with these countries.9 This change in the role of the EU is notable because when initially dreamt up, the EU was merely an economic union of European countries. Today’s EU is doubtless far removed from that initial idea.
The EU has positioned itself as a normative power outside of its borders. When dealing with candidate countries, the EU increasingly holds lofty requirements for accession.
9 Register of Commission documents: Free trade or geo-economics ? Trends in world trade Document date: 2019-09-27 EXPO_IDA(2019)639306 In-Depth Analysis. Impact News Service. September 28, 2019 Saturday.
In the early 2000s, during the largest waves of EU expansion, these commitments made by candidate countries were expected to be honored throughout the EU membership process so accession would be achieved regardless of completion status. Today, many countries, such as Montenegro and North Macedonia, are stalled in the EU accession process without a clear path forward. Various reasons are given for their continued outsider status. Still, fundamentally, they are not EU members because the EU does not want them to be members: If Germany or France believed that West Balkans integration would benefit the EU, West Balkans accession would occur tomorrow. The EU also maintains a hypocrisy within its borders. Specific EU states such as Hungary, Poland, and Malta do not “uphold the values of the European Union” quite like a member state should. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been in power for fourteen consecutive years. Poland is actively bringing religion back into government and cracking down on same-sex marriage. Malta occasionally
car-bombs journalists that are exposing people in power. Ministers from these very governments are sent to the West Balkans to enforce the EU expectations onto candidate countries. Often, candidates uphold these very rules far better than certain countries that have already entered the union.10
EU enlargement policy has also significantly been affected by the migrant crisis. In an attempt to keep migrants out of EU borders, the EU has expected candidate countries on the outskirts of Europe and the main migrant roads into the EU to detain and hold the migrants back from entering and gaining the right to seek asylum.11 Many larger EU countries, such as France and Germany, believe that EU law must be deepened before it is widened. This means enforcement for poorly behaving EU members and a system of consequences before any new EU members that may potentially
10 “Parliament calls for action against the erosion of EU values in member states”. Baltic Legal Updates. February 29, 2024 Thursday.
11 Selman Aksünger |. “Hundreds gather in Amsterdam to protest against EU migrant policies”. Anadolu Agency (AA). June 19, 2023 Monday.
misbehave are allowed in. Such sentiments typically only focus on the negative cases of recently admitted EU states such as Poland and Hungary.
There have been many success stories in recent years as well. Slovenia has prospered economically since joining the EU in 2004 and continues to cement itself as an integral part of the understanding of “civilized” Europe. This language is intentionally colonialist.
Slovenia is considered "one of the good'' South Slavic/Balkan countries. Though it was part of Yugoslavia until 1991, a mere 13 years before joining the EU, it was always economically advanced for a Balkan country, and it was considered more Western-oriented than neighboring Croatia and much more than anywhere farther south.12 Croatia’s accession in
12 “Europe facing its refoundation”. CE Noticias Financieras English. March 18, 2024 Monday.
2013 proved valuable to the EU since Croatia has recently become a trendy tourist destination and it being within the EU’s borders is a good look. Croatia has, however, also been bending the EU norms. Notably in her close collaboration with Russia in recent years and the abolition of same-sex marriage immediately after receiving EU membership.13
The central powers of the EU that would prefer the union not expand further are behind the halt in expansion, though they offload this responsibility onto smaller countries. Seeing the benefits of EU membership, many candidate countries invest large amounts of resources to realize it. North Macedonia, for example, has essentially gone all-in on Western orientation and EU accession. They never saw this benefit in terms of EU membership, though. Nevertheless, the idea of EU membership was held over North Macedonia’s head as collateral to encourage it to behave.
13 “Sour grapes embitter historic Greece-N.Macedonia deal”. Agence France Presse English. June 17, 2022 Friday.
Initially, the process was slowed by Greek Ethnonationalism attempting to force a name change. At this point, EU leaders came out and condemned Greece’s actions in blocking North Macedonia for hateful reasons. Following the 2018 Prespa agreement, North Macedonia was met with a different EU. At this point, no relevant European actors desired enlargement. Before they could hide behind Bulgarian nationalism for the halting of accession talks, Macron personally vetoed negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia.14 This was a brutal blow at the end of a three-decadespanning brutal process. These hypocritical actions make the EU seem dishonest and unreasonable to many countries most committed to acceding.
Following this, North Macedonian accession talks were blocked by Bulgaria. This was another crushing blow, considering both countries signed the friendship treaty in 2017, attempting to 14 “Sour grapes embitter historic Greece-N.Macedonia deal”. Agence France Presse English. June 17, 2022 Friday.
improve their relations. This treaty had a notable difference in wording between NATO accession and EU accession:
“The Bulgarian side will share its experience in order to assist the Republic of Macedonia in fulfilling the necessary criteria for membership in the European Union and will support the Republic of Macedonia in receiving an invitation for NATO membership in accordance with the relevant decisions of the NATO summits.”15
The wording of the treaty is ambiguous. It is unclear whether Bulgaria will assist North Macedonia in fulfilling the criteria set by the EU for all prospective EU member states or if Bulgaria claims her support in assisting North Macedonia in meeting the ultimata Bulgaria has set. Regardless, the treaty only holds Bulgaria accountable for a little in the way of North Macedonian EU accession. However, the treaty mandates that Bulgaria support North Macedonia in receiving an invitation for NATO membership, implying an expectation of a proactive 15 “Bulgaria, Republic of North Macedonia Sign Protocol under Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighbourliness and Cooperation”. Ghana News Agency (GNA). July 17, 2022 Sunday.
stance from within NATO on North Macedonian accession. This crucial difference in phrasing: “share its experience to assist” as opposed to “support,” likely contributes to Bulgaria’s lack of a veto on the matter of NATO accession but the presence of a veto mere months later on the issue of EU accession.
By contrast, Chinese investment is non-ideological. While EU investment hinges on adopting EU norms and ways of governance for further integration, all China looks for is a return on that which it has invested and an improvement of relations between countries. Countries like Serbia that have elected to focus more on Chinese investment than waiting for the EU to come around have already seen tangible benefits. Belgrade has seen widespread investment and development in recent years, especially with the Belgrade Waterfront project. Serbia has true 200km/h high-speed rail between Belgrade and Novi Sad. The A1
North-South Highway is up to modern standards and has especially seen improvement in its southernmost portion, the newest part of it opening in 2019.16
For countries that struggle with corruption, the lack of transparency of Chinese investment also opens the door to money laundering. While this is bad for a country in the long run, in the immediate future, the citizens receive the infrastructure they desperately need. China mainly sees economic potential in the Balkans and intends to capitalize on it before others can. Eastern European countries in CEEC+China also feel more dignity when dealing with China than the EU. While the EU is patronizing and demanding and sends its lowest and most peripheral ministers to Eastern Europe, China is more willing to do business and frequently sends President Jinping himself.17
16 “Greece becomes partner in Budapest-Belgrade-Skopje-Athens high-speed rail project”. Intellinews - Serbia This Week. February 14, 2024.
17 “Xi Jinping Meets with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán”. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China - News (English). October 17, 2023 Tuesday.
When it comes to power dynamics within the Balkans, there exists an understanding of realpolitik, which focuses exclusively on local powers and their whims. There is also an understanding of egalitarian interdependent cooperation. While moralistic institutions like the EU must claim they have the latter in mind, China is not bogged down with such bogus. China, therefore, focuses its investment on Serbia and, to a lesser extent, Albania and Croatia and promotes cooperation between these three countries. While a challenging goal, it is probable that a united front of Serbia, Albania, and Croatia would extend their reach to the entire Balkans, thereby aiding China with her investments and her stretching of soft power into the region. Occasionally, when giving out loans, China requests land as collateral with the threat of building a Chinese military base in the country if it defaults on its debt. This sort of agreement was made with Montenegro, and Montenegro defaulted on its loans. However, as a NATO member state, the West was not ever going
to allow a Chinese military base on its soil. So once Montenegro defaulted on her loans, Western banks bailed her out.18 This represents an often successful albeit risky way to get more effective foreign investment from the West. By playing both sides, countries can leverage their unique global status and maximize the benefits they receive.
A belief in realpolitik benefits Balkan regional powers who seek to realize their perceived greater extents. By receiving more than and thereby being more influential in the region than Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia can extend its perceived rightful borders in Republika Srpska. While the Bosnian government is very complicated and essentially no on-the-ground politicians have real power, It seems that due to regional politics, Republika Srpska
President Milorad Dodik is more influential in Bosnia and
18 Targeted News Service. “University of Mississippi: CISS Students Publish Intelligence on Montenegro Debt Traps”. Targeted News Service. August 9, 2023 Wednesday.
Herzegovina than the current official holder of the rotation presidency, Željko Komšić. This also increases Croatia’s reach into
Federacija Bosna i Herzegovina, given the large Croat populations there. A strong Croatia means a stronger representation of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Croatian minority and, unfortunately, a weaker Bosnian representation. Albania also sees a better realization and influence over Albanian-majority provinces in North Macedonia and a more realistic future of an independent Kosovo. These factors lead to the remaining countries, or the followers, to be at a disadvantage.19 They have little incentive to follow the dominant
Realpolitik narrative since it disadvantages them. And following EU norms in an attempt to increase Euro-Atlantic integration proves futile since the EU is no longer an honest broker. The economic disparity between the dominant and non-dominant countries increases as infrastructural disparity increases. This type 19 “EU pursues ‘positive realpolitik’ in the Balkans, says Hahn”. Intellinews - Bosnia and Herzegovina Today. June 12, 2017 Monday.
of foreign investment proves short-sighted and exploitative, especially to countries that are not regional powers.
Seemingly, every Balkan nation has some idea somewhere in discourse of their greater extent. The Greek Megali Idea contains much of the western parts of Anatolia. A greater Bulgaria involves eastern Thrace, North Macedonia, and sometimes Constantinople. Greater Serbia also includes all of North Macedonia, Slavonia, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Dalmatia, and Montenegro. And a greater Macedonia consists of all historic places that have once been called “Macedonia.”20 Since every country’s version of their greatest extent overlaps. Balkan politics and sentiments are plagued by feelings that everybody got shortchanged somewhere.
Certain countries masterfully play both sides to their individual benefit. This does, however, come at a detriment to 20 “Tabak pojasnio kakvo to moćno oružje Srbija ima: ‘To je jedan od hitova vojne industrije’”. Dnevno.hr (online). December 19, 2023 Tuesday.
others and institutions since trust is often lost in these practices. Croatia and Hungary are full Schengen and EU member states. However, they have closer ties to China and Russia than other EU countries. This proves troubling because such foreign policy orientations also lead to questionable internal policies. Both countries are implicated in various human rights violations, most notably against the LGBTQ and non-catholic communities. However, Croatia and Hungary are thriving compared to if they were not EU members. Serbia and North Macedonia are also opposites in this sense. Though they are incomparable given Serbia’s status as the most prominent West Balkans regional power, Serbia centered her foreign policy around Russia and China. In contrast, North Macedonia centered hers around the EU and Euro-Atlantic integration. Serbia has seen major development and economic growth in the immediate aftermath of this alignment with Russia and China and the subsequent investment she received. At the same time, North Macedonia continues to hold out hope for
the EU and play by its rules. North Macedonia has seen economic stagnation and unmet promises.21 Abandoning the European idea of continental cooperation and a complete regression to transactionality is not the best option. However, the Western great powers must restructure their foreign policies to avoid forgetting their “insignificant” allies.
The EU project’s unrealistic checkpoints became evident upon designating Moldova and Ukraine as official candidate countries in 2022. Official candidacy was formerly a process that all but guaranteed membership. The typical time from candidate status to membership was, on average, 3.5 years, while it took four years on average to accede to the EU after that. However, some candidate countries like North Macedonia had been candidates for 18 years before starting negotiations, and Serbia and Montenegro have already been in negotiations for 12 and 10 years, respectively, 21 “Бајден и бае на Србија”. Faktor (online). January 23, 2024 Tuesday.
without much headway. Despite this stall, Ukraine and Moldova were granted candidate status just three months after application.22 To most other candidates, this seems like a final abandonment of the importance of candidate status. There is no delusion in anyone’s mind that, despite the war, Ukraine and Moldova have no chance of EU membership anytime soon. Their democratic institutions are not where they need to be, and they have massive territorial disputes over Crimea, the War in Ukraine, and Transnistria. It seems that the EU is using this as a “bargaining chip” to virtue-signal its political allegiances.23 These actions further frustrate EU candidates.
Similarly, Croatia joined the Schengen area in 2023 after just under ten years of membership. Romania and Bulgaria have only partially joined the Schengen area by air and sea as of 31
22 22Carl Bildt. “The return of EU enlargement”. Newstex Blogs The ASPI Strategist. July 20, 2023 Thursday. 23 “Supporting Ukraine's European destiny”. Impact Financial News. March 19, 2024 Tuesday.
March 2024, despite being EU members a full five years longer than Croatia.
The causes for this favoritism are mainly geographical, notably that Croatia has a more valuable Adriatic coastline than the Bulgarian and Romanian Black Sea coastlines. Also, as recent trends of vacationing and travel to Croatia increase, Croatian Schengen membership proves beneficial to all EU citizens.24 Additionally, far fewer migrants enter Europe through Croatia as its coastline is “protected” by Greece and Italy, both farther south on its sea. These factors indicate that, once again, a unified Europe is on the back burner of EU policy and that it is up to third countries to fend for themselves.
Brexit is yet another reason the EU finds itself weary of expansion. In the 1960s, the UK was barred from EU accession twice by Charles de Gaulle, who believed that the UK didn’t share
24 “Romania/Bulgaria: Romania, Bulgaria partially join Europe's Schengen travel zone”. Thai News Service. April 3, 2024 Wednesday.
the continental vision for a unified Europe. De Gaulle thought the UK would leave the EU when its economy improved. While the UK did join the EU in 1973 following de Gaulle’s resignation, he proved to be right.25 The 2016 Brexit vote further opened the eyes of the EU’s critical actors to disingenuous accession goals of some countries. The EU still maintains an exceptionalist narrative from all of this, however. The EU wants to prevent countries from joining who only see the benefit pragmatically rather than ideologically. For this reason, as well as the EU’s general dislike of migrants, investing in non-EU countries on the EU’s periphery was preferable to granting full membership. This way, the EU could shift its perceived borders farther away from the center and better focus its investment on keeping migrants away. This is not
25 George Friedman. “Brexit and Charles de Gaulle's last laugh”. AFR Online. April 4, 2019 Thursday.
beneficial to the citizens of the third countries, but it does help the EU appear to have great cooperation with these third countries.
The Open Balkans Initiative is another initiative that certain countries have set up because the EU has proved ineffective.
Founded by Serbia, Albania, and North Macedonia with aspirations to join from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Kosovo, it represents a historic normalization of relations between, most notably, Serbia and Albania. In addition to normalized political relations, the initiative's primary goal is to loosen the borders between the participating countries. The initiative had often been called a “Mini-Schengen” due to its similar aspirations to the actual Schengen area. Similar advancements in decreasing roaming costs and preventing them entirely across the Western Balkans were made, which saw widespread support in the participating countries. These policies were created because trust in the EU had fallen in these regions. The end goal of the Open Balkans Initiative is to supplement a border-free zone in the
Balkans.26 This presents a curious situation in which there is a potential for a collective bargaining agreement if the West Balkans can successfully mobilize and act as a single entity. This could generate an EFTA or EEA-style arrangement with West Balkans and a second Swiss-style border arrangement.
Given the politicized nature of the EU accession process, candidate countries’ only unvarnished criterium for joining is whether the European Union views it as having strategic importance. For instance, the economic, judicial, and anticorruption reforms needed to join the EU benefit North Macedonia. They are effective in bettering the lives of its citizens. The political ultimata, however, exclusively increase division in an already divided country. It is challenging to justify alternatives to the European Union for the long term. Any non-integrative proposal seems to only function as an intermediate state between
26 “Balcans: FT reports region to launch mini-Schengen; Initiative proposed awaiting unblocking of EU accession process”. ANSA English Media Service. July 28, 2021.
the current state of play and membership. Another distinction to be made in modern North Macedonian foreign policy is between relations with Russia and China. Further partnership and integration with Russia, especially after the start of the war in Ukraine, is both impossible due to North Macedonia’s status as a NATO member state and directly anti-European Union accession.
However, China has a unique business relationship with the Western Balkans and, therefore, North Macedonia. Chinese loans and investments benefit the people more directly than those from the European Union. This causes citizens to have more faith in China than in the European Union, which has done nothing but stall Macedonia’s prospects for integration. The fear of defaulting on Chinese loans is a noted concern with reliance on China. These agreements between China and the Western Balkans tend to have dire consequences for failure to pay. Being a NATO member, North Macedonia has some safety from defaulting on these loans. Through improved infrastructure from Chinese and EU loans, North
Macedonia must reform for itself. The European Union looks increasingly less reliable as a saving grace for North Macedonia’s domestic problems.
While EU membership should not leave the table and the reforms made thus far should not be repealed, North Macedonia must consider viewing alternate avenues for its future. Macedonia does not have an effective way to make itself appealing to the European Union and even meeting all criteria that it is subjected to will not guarantee EU accession. North Macedonia must demand transparency from the European Union. North Macedonia must also view its accession processes and prospects soberly and objectively. It is difficult to objectively view the politicized accession process and convince an already discouraged public of its validity. North Macedonia must assert that a failure of integration is not only a Macedonian failure but equal parts
European Union failure. As a country with quantifiably less power and leverage than European Union member states, it is difficult for
Macedonia to hold the European Union accountable for its commitments in the Thessaloniki Agreement.
The most satisfactory, however least reasonable, path forward is for North Macedonia to call the European Union out.
North Macedonia can release a statement that it sees the European Union as an unfair actor to them. North Macedonia sees the ignoring of recommendations from the European Commission on the matter of accession negotiations. It considers the ever-changing goalpost and politicization of a supposedly merit-driven process.
North Macedonia refuses to be dragged along under the influence of the EU without seeing any benefit from its arrangement. North Macedonia condemns the European Union's hypocrisy and failure to hold itself accountable for commitments it has made.
It will end traditional accession negotiations with an organization more corrupt than itself unless they are amended to be more equitable.
As for policy that global powers should pursue, it is up to the US and EU to create more fair and egalitarian relations with the countries with which they engage in trade. This way, by promoting mutual benefit and not solely focusing on the interests of the Western powers, their global influence will increase as there will be less need for Eastern investment to supplement where the West fails. It is of utmost importance that transparency in trade be prioritized among these countries and that equal agreements be created because closer cooperation with countries in the Balkans, for example, is a critical national security issue for Western Europe. Serbia now acts as a Chinese and Russian stronghold on the European continent, which is a very dangerous reality for NATO and the West’s interests as a whole. If nothing changes, there is a risk that more countries will get economically close to China, which is a practically correct choice on the individual country’s part. Many of these countries, though, especially the NATO members, are unacceptable to fall into the grips of the East
as far as the US is concerned. This leaves a complicated stalemate that only an amendment to foreign policy that treats other countries like people can solve.
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