Willamette Industries, Inc.

ALAN OAKES publisher

What Now? Stay The Gourse

All of us at Cutler Publishing sincerely hope that you and your loved ones are safe and sound. The events of the past two months have helped us all focus on what is most important in our lives-from our families and friends to the world at large. Our lives may have been altered forever, but we as a nation have taken this opportunity to become stronger as we go forward. Our job is to continue to keep ourselves, our families and our economy strong.

While the capital markets have always been vulnerable to major surprises, the current degree of uncertainty has added exponentially to concern over where our economy and our industry are heading in both the short and long term. However, with that said, the short-term uncertainties should not cloud our long-term outlook.

I think everyone would agree that before September 1 l, the economy was in trouble. Our industry, while benefiting from a reasonably strong housing market, had been suffering from continued declines in lumber pricing. It was generally felt that the economy was in a gradual saucer shape curve with expansion expected late 2001 through first quarter 2002, with a sharper rebound at the end of 2002. While difficult to predict the short term, we have seen in the last weeks, a stabilization and gradual climb back to pre-September I I levels.

I believe there is further good news on the horizon. While economic activity might be weak over the next several months, all the indicators and growth characteristics of the U.S. economy remain intact. What this tragic event has accomplished is the enactment of a national stimulus package of upwards of $70 billion that might otherwise not have been taken. With the impact of the reduced interest rates since January still feeding through the system, including low mortgage rates and business loans, pressure on price increases suggests low inflation for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, unemployment will likely to rise to

6-'l%o in the short-term, encouraging c.e.o.s to invest in technology and equipment that will in turn lead to productivity gains that will create new jobs once again. In our industry, hopefully in the next month or so, the Canadian issue will be equitably resolved in a way all vested parties can support. The uncertainty of this situation has gone on for too long whatever side ofthe fence you sit.

So, how should we operate in such an environment? In my opinion, we should take the pragmatic view that in any environment there is business being won and lost. The question is: which company is going to win it? In a down economy there is opportunity to gain market share, but in challenging times, many companies large and small are not equipped or willing to make the changes necessary to operate in a different environment. Any time the economy takes a downturn, the need to cut costs leads to hasty decisions like cutting sales and marketing budgets. There are line items to cut, but this is not one of them. Any number of recessions has proven that cutting marketing and sales budgets causes both immediate and long-term decreases in profit levels and company and brand awareness. Maintaining promotional spending gives the opportunity to increase market share and seize the moment. In a less cluttered environment messages stand out as never before. By default you are top of mind, and you will be seen by customers as a winner, and will gain market share and sales.

Companies that prosper in a downturn have been shown to more likely prosper in the upturn, and for companies that cut their marketing spend, unfortunately, to rebuild later may be too costly or even impossible. In order to survive a downturn, you must do the right things, and this market and any other market, will always support those companies and individuals that do the right things.

Life marches on. Staying the course is what we should all do.