2023 HOUSING INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

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Housing starts below trend in 2023 and 2024

The affordability challenge is expected to keep single-family starts in the neighborhood of 850,000 units in 2023 and 2024, down from one million units in 2022. Given the first quarter multifamily starts rate of 555,000 units, and falling throughout the year, multifamily starts are projected to total 510,000 units in 2023 and fall to 450,000 units in 2024. The sum of these two equals 1.36 million and 1.3 million starts in 2023 and 2024, respectively. (See chart at right.)

At the start of this discussion, it was said that trend demand for new housing units is 1.6 million. Assuming mobile home shipments of 100,000, additional new units added to the housing stock will run below trend. This means no progress has been made in alleviating the estimated shortage of housing units. This suggests there is an upside to the outlook for residential construction if, and it is a big if, there are changes in zoning laws and

Market For Mass Timber Quickens

(Continued from page 40) projects built or under construction, and WoodWorks is assisting on more than 200 projects at that scale.

Education and Support

These trends are positive, but the opportunity is still significant. Every year, about 17,000 buildings could be built with wood by code, but are built in other materials. In most cases, it costs about the same to build with wood, and yet the environmental benefits are significant. This underscores the need for continued education and outreach to help people understand where wood is permitted by code and assist designers with the more demanding requirements of larger projects. WoodWorks has provided technical support on over 75% of the mass timber projects constructed in the U.S. to date.

Through the development of education and resources, WoodWorks bridges knowledge gaps on topics critical to project success. We also have programs that tackle specific areas of need—such as mass timber insurance, construction management, and installation training. To demonstrate how mass timber meets pro forma expectations across various project subtypes, we collaborate with developers to create business case studies that other policies implemented that lower the cost of building homes and apartments. BP share transparent financial data.

– Joe K. Elling is the director of market research for APA – The Engineered Wood Association.

Research developed by the USDA Forest Service Forest Products Lab and others is also contributing to innovative building design. An example is the 10-story mass timber structure being tested on the world’s largest outdoor shake table at the University of California – San Diego. WoodWorks has and will continue providing education that allows the results to be used by engineers designing buildings in high-seismic areas.

The WoodWorks Innovation Network (WIN) is another resource, a user-driven, online network of projects and professionals created to facilitate collaboration among companies and individuals using innovative wood building systems and technologies. WIN’s searchable map can be used to research hundreds of projects and their teams, while its directory can be used to identify companies and individuals with specific types of experience, including manufacturers.

Historically, the U.S. single-family housing market has represented one of the world’s most robust markets for wood. With design teams turning to larger light-frame and mass timber buildings, supported by the strategic combination of education and project assistance, the U.S. is poised to develop equally robust markets for these products in the multifamily, commercial and institutional sectors. BP

APA RELEASES 2023 STRUCTURAL PANEL & ENGINEERED WOOD YEARBOOK

The 2023 Structural Panel & Engineered Wood Yearbook has been released by APA – The Engineered Wood Association. The Yearbook includes an analysis of the U.S., Canadian and global economies, focusing on factors that impact demand for engineered wood products across several market segments as a basis for forecasting expected production of engineered wood products. In addition to the analysis and forecast, it also includes historical data on engineered wood production. Topics examined include:

• Outlook and production statistics for structural panels (OSB and plywood), including historical data

• North American imports and exports

• Residential construction in the U.S. and Canada (new and repair/remodel)

• Nonresidential and industrial markets

• EWP demand and production (glued laminated timber, I-joists and laminated veneer lumber)

Included is a full 2023 market forecast, including all market segments, production outlook, and statistical data.