There is no quick fixthe real problem is uncertainty

flunnc MY MANY cnlls, I try to assess the heartbeat of the industry, and of late the best Lf that most can say is that business is better than last year. In certain parts of the country, improvement is marginal.In areas initially reporting strong sales, I sense that business has taken a step back in the last month or so. While I certainly hear from individual companies that are doing well, many are still bobbing along.

But the housing and remodeling industry cannot really change until there is a vast improvement in business outlook nationwide, and individuals and businesses are confident that they can spend and invest and not regret it later. High uncertainty creates a vicious circle or standstill and paralysis. There are so many factors outside of our control today that we live in a perpetual state of waiting for the other shoe to drop. We lack confidence-and with good reason. Economic growth appears to be slowing again, we are burdened by unemployment, the euro debt crisis, the China slowdown, and the looming fiscal-cliff crisis at the turn of the year. Businesses are reporting that they are putting capital and human investments on hold until there is more clarity. On an individual basis, if we look at our investments, many of us have fled the market and not for any other good reason than we have not made a buck in many a year. We keep getting sold on the notion of investing for the long run, but continue to see that as soon as we show any gains they get wiped out by the next catastrophe. I read recently that Boomers like me cannot take risk. Gen X and Gen Y believe in Facebook but not its stock, and Gen Z has no money.

The job crisis in this country needs to get to a healthier state. It may be true that we are nolongerattheofficial lU%olevel of unemploymentof recentyears,butthectnentS.2Vo figure is a joke, as it does not include the millions who cannot get a job and have given up. What many do not know is that the unemployment jobless rate is based on a survey of 60000 households. So my question is, who selects these 60000? With such a small sample, I am not sure how real the number is. I know a handful ofpeople who have been laid off and not one of them have found a real job yet-some even after a year and all highly qualified. Many of us could replicate this example with our own friends, meaning true unemployment is probably over l5Va.

So how do we get an improved situation, when our job creation engine is at a crawl? Frankly, we as a nation must first realize that this is our No. I critical need and that decades of kowtow-ment to other nations and allowing our industries to be decimated by unfair business practices must change. Our seeming willingness to bash big business (actually, all business) will not allow this counhy to get out of this crisis.

We have hovered around 8.17o to 8.3Va unemployment for a year or so, and it does not seem to change. (And that doesn't take into account that most people, even when reemployed, end up with substantially less pay than in their previous employment.) The fact is that we have accepted losing our industries and allowing our average wages to decline. We need to grow our economy, as we only average 151,000 jobs a month to date this year. Add this to the fact that 50Va of families are not earning enough to pay taxes and the scope of the issue is very clear. Forget the theory of taxing the rich more-you cannot tax them enough to get out of this mess. We need not only to create new industries, but also to find a way to bring back and re-tool some of our old industries. We need to encourage R&D, and we have to take advantage of the energy at our disposal.

Our regulations absolutely put us as at a disadvantage compared to our intemational competitors. We have serious structural issues that only seem to get worse, not better. Our country's long-term solutions are pushed aside by politicians determined to maintain their comfy lifestyle and stay in power. Regulations, taxation and energy are all issues that never change for the better. With Administration after Administration and Congress having tantrums, nothing changes and we continue to watch our economy sink even further. It scares me. I hope it scares all of you, too-and especially those in Congress and the White House, whomever they may be in 2013. What we want now is true leadership through this black hole!

Alan Oakes, Publisher aioakes@aol.com www. b u i ldi n g-prod ucts. com

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