BURSON-MARSTELLER INSIGHT
The Polish parliamentary election Civic Platform wins an historic second term 11 October 2011 The centrist Civic Platform (PO) party has won Poland’s general election, giving it a historic second term in government. In the elections to the lower house of the Polish parliament (the Sejm) on Sunday 9 October, PO won 39.2% of the vote, clearly defeating the right-wing opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, which received only 29.9% of the vote, despite having closed the gap on PO in many pre-election opinion polls. The result will be generally welcomed by Poland’s European partners, not only because they feared a return to the unpredictable and fractious European policy of the previous PiS government, but also because there will be minimal impact on the running of Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU, which holds office until the end of 2011. While the win for PO was expected, the strong showing for Palikot’s Movement (RP) – a radical liberal group formed earlier this year by former PO deputy Janusz Palikot – did surprise many commentators. RP won 10.2% of the vote, ahead of the junior coalition partner, the Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL), which won 8.4%. The Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) won 8.2%. Turnout was low, at 48.92%, down five percentage points on the last parliamentary election in 2007. Results overview The PO-PSL coalition likely to remain in place With the final official results now in, the Civic Platform (PO) is likely to form a government with its current coalition partner, with PO and the Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL) together holding 237 seats in the 460-seat parliament (see table). An alternative coalition - between PO and Palikot’s Movement (RP) – seems unlikely due to the strong opposition of the Speaker of the Sejm and leading PO politician Grzegorz Schetyna. Instead, the PO-PSL alliance will probably seek out support from individual Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) MPs to further strengthen its parliamentary position. In elections to the Senate, PO won an equally impressive victory, taking 63 out of 100 seats. 31 seats went to Law and Justice (PiS), two to PSL, and the rest to independents. The Senate results come under the firstpast-the-post electoral system, introduced for the first time in the Senate elections, and the results dispelled fears that maverick candidates would exploit the new system.
Analysis Economic growth and opposition weakness The current Civic Platform / Peasant Party government has become the first government to be successfully re-elected in a parliamentary election in Poland since the collapse of communism in 1989. In this sense, the result is a double victory for Prime Minister Tusk (pictured, right), who stepped up his personal engagement in the campaign two weeks prior to polling day, reflecting concerns about lacklustre progress. He toured the country in an election ‘battle bus’ and mobilised the Civic Platform (PO) vote; his victory will entrench his position not only as Polish PM but also as PO leader, giving him the upper hand in party rivalries with Mr Schetyna. The result reflects the relatively strong economic position in Poland. Over the last few years Poland has seen continued economic growth while the rest of Europe grappled with huge economic problems. With an average growth rate of four percent, EU funds financing infrastructure investment, and strong consumer spending, the ‘feelgood factor’ clearly led many Poles to believe that changing the
government made little sense. PO also played on the strengths of their current economic team, establishing them in the minds of voters as the safest hands in the current global economic crisis and difficult times ahead. Conversely, PO also played on the weaknesses of the Law and Justice (PiS) team, and in the last week of the campaign played on the memories of the chaotic and inefficient PiS government of 2005-2007. Questions raised about Kaczynski’s tactics: The result is the sixth successive election defeat suffered by PiS at the hands of PO since 2007 (taking into account local, presidential and European elections). The margin of the defeat suggests that Mr Tusk had some justification in saying, just a few months ago, that “PO had no-one to lose an election to”. The perennial political tactic of PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski shoring up his radical political base between elections while attempting to move to the centre during the campaign itself - will now be under intense scrutiny, as will his plan of regrouping in opposition for ‘one last push’ for the 2015 presidential and parliamentary elections. Mr Kaczynski hopes that external and internal economic conditions over the next four years will have deteriorated to the extent that electoral fatigue will give him victory over PO, and he is counting on his loyal party base having the patience to wait yet again for political success. Despite this defeat, it is doubtful that Mr Kaczynski’s leadership of the party will be seriously questioned. Although putative successor Zbigniew Ziobro may be encouraged to make moves to oust him, the party’s internal statutes make this a difficult task and there remain enough loyalists to Mr Kaczynski in the parliamentary party to ensure his survival. Palikot celebrates his success: Other than PO, the other clear winner of the elections is Janusz Palikot, leader of his eponymous party ‘Palikot’s Movement’, which obtained ten percent of the vote. Having started his party from scratch less than a year ago after leaving PO, Mr Palikot has positioned himself as a pro-economic reform, anti-clerical politician. He appeals to a section of the electorate that is hostile to the Catholic Church – mainly the young, who are moving away from the PO – as well as to former supporters of the populist Self-Defence party who, seeing themselves as disenfranchised and ignored by Warsaw, are attracted to Mr Palikot’s anti-establishment outsider image. Mr Palikot’s relative success is all the sweeter as it was combined with pushing the postcommunist Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), hitherto the standardbearer of the Polish Left, into last place. For Mr Palikot, entering parliament with a strong representation, and staying in opposition as
Contact Robert Mack Chair, EMEA Public Affairs Practice
Marek Matraszek Founding Partner, CEC Government Relations
Burson-Marsteller EMEA Public Affairs Practice 37 Square de Meeûs, 1000 Brussels • Tel +32 2 743 66 11 • Fax +32 2 733 66 11 robert.mack@bm.com • www.burson-marsteller.eu
David O’Leary Director, Burson-Marsteller Brussels
the troubles of the government will surely mount, is his best-case scenario. In the future he will aim to garner supported from disaffected PO and SLD voters in order to position himself as the main centre-left opposition to both PO and PiS.
The results in detail Party
Abbrev.
EU party
Seats
+/-
Share (%)
Civic Platform
PO
EPP
207
-2
39.2
Law and Justice
PiS
AECR
156
-10
29.9
Palikot’s Movement
RP
None
40
+40
10.2
Polish Peasant Party
PSL
EPP
28
-3
8.4
Democratic Left Alliance
SLD
PES
27
-26
8.2
Poland Comes First
PJN
AECR
0
-15
2.2
PSL guarantees itself another four years in government: The Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL) leader, Deputy Prime Minister Waldemar Pawlak, can be satisfied with the result, which is much higher than predicted by most polls. In a renewed government coalition between PO and PSL, Mr Pawlak can expect to take two or three ministries – although probably not the job of Speaker of the Sejm, likely to remain in the hands of Mr Schetyna. Mr Pawlak will be looking to take over the proposed new joint Ministry for Energy and the Environment, or failing that, the proposed new Ministry for the Digital Economy. The SLD looks to a bleak future: The obvious loser of the campaign is the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), which had hoped to build on the relative success of its leader, Grzegorz Napieralski, in last year’s presidential elections. Instead, a leaden campaign, plus Mr Napieralski’s decision to ease out candidates who might have broadened the party’s left-wing appeal, resulted in a disastrous result that will open the way to a challenge to his leadership. Riven by internal conflicts, out of government and facing a challenge from Palikot’s Movement (RP) as the champion of Poland’s anticlerical Left, the SLD looks set for another four years on the fringes of Polish politics. Any new leader will face an uphill task of rebuilding a party whose electorate has been disassembled by PiS, PO and RP, and whose only public faces are the ex-communist dinosaurs of yesteryear, such as former PM Leszek Miller. Next steps Tusk and Komorowski to form government quickly The next few days will see discussions open between the Civic Platform and the Peasants’ Party over the division of government responsibilities, and the President of the Republic, Bronislaw Komorowski, should be informed relatively quickly about Mr Tusk’s ability to secure a majority in parliament. President Komorowski will reappoint Mr Tusk as Prime Minister together with the new ministers, pending a formal vote of confidence by the beginning of November at the latest. President Komorowski has hinted that he will accelerate this process, given that the victors and main players are already known, and it is possible that the first session of parliament and confirmation of the new government will happen before the end of October. An alternative scenario floated by Mr Tusk is that the current government ministers remain in place until the end of Poland’s EU Presidency in December 2011. Which option wins out will become clearer in the next few days. Attention on personalities and policy: Attention now shifts to the make-up of the new government. Mr Tusk has stated that only a handful of ministers can be sure of their jobs in the new cabinet, and these are expected to be the current Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, the Finance Minister, Jacek Rostowski, the Regional
Development Minister, Elzbieta Bienkowska, and one or two others. Some ministers may alter departments – creating for example, a separate Ministry of the Interior from the current Ministry of Internal and Administrative Affairs – and also create new departments, such as a Ministry for the Digital Economy. Whatever the make-up of the new government, it will be very much the government of Mr Tusk and his closest advisors, including the head of his Economic Council, Jan Krzysztof Bielecki, and the Minister without Portfolio, Michal Boni. In terms of policy, Mr Tusk is aware that the future of the government and Civic Platform (PO) rests very much on maintaining the pace of reform, especially as economic conditions deteriorate. On election night he announced a much more robust approach to reform, referring back to the radical reform roots of PO. With the party completely under his control, a stable majority in parliament, a friendly President, and an opposition in disarray, there is little excuse for Mr Tusk not to push forward with more ambitious policies. In addition, the arrival of Palikot’s Movement (RP) in parliament has brought with it a political force perhaps even more committed than Mr Tusk to the free market, and their votes will be a useful buttress for policies that might be resisted by the more conservative Peasants’ Party (PSL). Normally, an election that generates no change might presage an uninteresting political future, but in the case of these elections, the new PO-PSL coalition and the rise of RP brings new personalities, new parties and a new dynamic that should ensure that the next four years of Polish politics are even more absorbing than the last. EU impact All calm at the eye of the storm The victory for Mr Tusk – and the fact that Civic Platform (PO) is likely to join a coalition with the Peasants’ Party (PSL) again – will be greeted with relief by most European leaders. While an economic storm rages in Europe, the Polish Presidency should remain relatively unaffected by the election, and it seems to be ‘business as usual’. Furthermore, there is relief that there will be no return to a Law and Justice (PiS) government, which led a turbulent EU policy from 2005 to 2007. In terms of personnel, there are unlikely to be changes in the ministerial team until the end of October or early November, and some of the key players – such as Mr Rostowski, who has been one of the key voices in the debate on the financial crisis – seem set to remain in post. The continued PO-PSL government will also ensure that the priorities of the Presidency will remain unchanged and allow Polish ministers to continue to lead discussions on issues such as the EU’s multi-annual financial framework, enlargement and reform of the Schengen Area, the Single Market and the Durban climate change talks. Beyond the Presidency, PO will be expected to live up to its campaign promises – such as securing continued EU investment in Poland. In addition, Mr Tusk’s victory will also be seen by many outside Poland as vindication of his pro-EU policies and reinforcement of Poland’s role as a major and constructive player in EU debates. With the roles of President of the European Commission or President of the European Council becoming vacant in 2014, Mr Tusk may well be a good bet to be in Brussels before the end of his second term in government. Original text by Marek Matraszek, CEC Government Relations. CEC Government Relations is Burson-Marsteller’s public affairs affiliate in Poland. For further information please contact mm@cecgr.com or visit cecgr.com. Disclaimer: Burson-Marsteller regularly publishes elction insights after key elections in the EMEA region. This document reflects only the views of Burson-Marsteller and notably its affiliate in Warsaw, and not those of any client. In Brussels, Burson-Marsteller currently works for the Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU, via the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This work does not include support to any political party.
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