Bulgaria’s early parliamentary elections have seen no clear winner and acrimonious disputes over the results. Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), the party of the outgoing Prime Minister, Boyko Borisov (pictured right), emerged as the biggest party, but does not have a majority and lost seats. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), led by the President of the Party of European Socialists, Sergey Stanishev (pictured far right), more than doubled its number of MPs. The BSP may form a parliamentary pact with the centrist Movement for Rights and Freedom and the far-right Attack (Ataka) party to support a technocratic government. New elections may also be necessary. Around a quarter of votes cast went to parties that did not meet the threshold to enter parliament, and turnout only just topped 50%.
The beginning of the year saw an eruption of public dissatisfaction - and even rage - triggered by a sharp rise in electricity bills. Anger quickly turned on the government. As a result of huge national protests the right-wing government of the Prime Minister, Boyko Borisov (from the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria party - GERB) resigned at the end of February. This move was seen as an attempt to extinguish widespread national unrest as well as a canny political manoeuvre: Mr Borisov calculated that early elections would give little time to the opposition to secure support and would also weaken attempts by smaller parties to mobilise and win of at least four per cent of the vote (the threshold to win seats in Parliament). The President of Bulgaria, Rosen Plevneliev (GERB), established a caretaker government and scheduled the elections for 12 May.
The election campaign was marred by a scandal about illegal wiretapping, which became a hot issue not only in the country but abroad too, as the ‘Bulgarian Watergate’. The scandal concerned possible illegal eavesdropping in the Chief Directorate Combating Organised Crime (CDCOC) and became a major topic in the election after the leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), Sergey Stanishev, accused a former interior minister, Tsvetan Tsvetanov, of giving orders to carry out illegal wiretapping. Further controversy came on the ever of the vote, when prosecutors announced that, following a raid, they had found 350,000 illegallyprinted ballots in a printing house owned by a GERB official.
Boyko Borisov’s GERB party won the elections, taking 30.7% of the vote. It won 97 seats - down 20 on its previous showing and falling 24 seats short of an overall majority. However, it seems
Parliamentary elections
unlikely that it will be able to form a government as none of the other three parties that won seats in parliament want to enter into a coalition with GERB. The BSP finished second, doubling its number of seats (from 40 to 84) and taking 27.1% of the popular vote. The Movement for Rights and Freedom (DPS - a centrist party that principally stands for the interests of Turks and Muslims in Bulgaria) won 10.5% of the vote and took 37 seats. The far-right nationalist Attack party (Ataka) won 7.4% of the vote and will have 23 deputies.
Mr Borisov denied any wrong-doing on the part of GERB in the printing house affair and claimed that his party's electoral hopes had been hurt by other parties’ news conferences following the raid on Saturday (when, by law, campaigning must end) GERB says that it will seek to annul the vote and, if it fails, it will seek to propose a minority government. However, it is unlikely to be able to secure approval in parliament as the other parties have already stated their refusal to work with Mr Borisov and his party. In that case, the BSP, DPS and Ataka could form a parliamentary alliance to back a technocratic government of experts and nonaligned figures - all with the aim of restoring stability in the country. Mr Stanishev, has already said that he does not seek the role of PM and wishes to focus on his role as PES President . A second scenario - if one of the three parties refuses to join a coalition or parliamentary alliance - is that there will be new elections. This outcome could favour the BSP and DPS, who would seem set to fare well in a new poll. A third scenario is a right-wing alliance of GERB and Ataka. This seems unlikely - not least because it would still not lead to a majority government. It seems unlikely that the public would support such a pact and it could lead to further instability. Overall, there is significant uncertainty about what happens next, which will damage Bulgaria’s (already somewhat shaky) standing among its EU partners at a key time for the country (the next government will need to negotiate EU funding for the next seven years as well as address popular anger over living conditions). International observers said the vote was generally well run but that scandals and fraud allegations had eroded trust in state institutions - probably as much among EU leaders as among ordinary Bulgarians. Original text by Chapter 4, Burson-Marsteller’s affiliate in Central and Eastern Europe // chapter4.at Photos: CC/Flickr EPP - European People’s Party; primeministergr