François Hollande (pictured right with his partner, Valérie Trierweiler) has been elected as the seventh President of France’s Fifth Republic. Mr Hollande won 51.63% of the vote in the second-round run-off with the incumbent President, Nicolas Sarkozy, to become the first Socialist elected as French head of state since François Mitterrand won a second term in 1988. Mr Sarkozy conceded defeat less than 30 minutes after the announcement of the exit polls. He wished good luck to the new President and told supporters that he took “full responsibility” for the defeat. Mr Hollande will take over the presidency on 15 May, with his first task being to form a government that can win the confidence of the people in parliamentary elections next month. Both the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the President of the United States, Barack Obama, spoke to Mr Hollande on Sunday night to offer their congratulations. Mr Hollande’s first foreign trip is likely to be to Berlin, probably next week, confirming his commitment to the European Union and the partnership with Germany. However, Mr Hollande’s promise to renegotiate the EU’s Fiscal Compact will be a subject of hard discussions, as Mrs Merkel has already said renegotiation would be “impossible”.
More than four in five members of the French electorate turned out for the second round vote on Sunday, but slightly down from the 84% who participated in the second round of the presidential election five years ago. François Hollande’s victory makes Nicolas Sarkozy the eleventh eurozone leader to be swept away in the tide of the economic crisis. While thanking Mr Sarkozy for his service to France, Mr Hollande told a victory rally in Paris on Sunday: “Too many divisions, too many wounds, too many ruptures, too many cuts have separated our fellow citizens from one another. That’s all finished”. He told the thousands of people standing in Place de la Bastille: “I am the president of the youth of France. […] You are a movement that is rising up throughout Europe”. Many European leaders congratulated Mr Hollande on Sunday night. The President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, said that he counted on François Hollande “to give a boost to the European economy”. Mr Hollande also spoke to Angela Merkel and the British prime minister, David Cameron. The Italian prime minister, Mario Monti, said he hoped for close cooperation with Mr Hollande aimed at “at an increasingly efficient and growth-oriented union”.
Trailing after the first round vote, Nicolas Sarkozy tried to pick up the sizeable vote obtained by the National Front leader, Marine Le Pen, two weeks earlier. Mr Sarkozy was criticised by left-wing and centrist leaders for having shifted too far to the right, such as by trying to make immigration issues pivotal in the campaign. This strategy was successful up to a point - Mr Sarkozy won the votes of about 50% of those who had voted for Mrs Le Pen in the first round (although the National Front leader said that she would cast a blank ballot). Crucially, Mr Sarkozy lost some of the centre ground, failing to gain the support of centrist leader François Bayrou, who scored slightly under ten per cent in the first round. Mr Bayrou announced last week that he would vote for François Hollande, considering some of the ideas promoted by Mr Sarkozy as not compatible with “humanist values”. As for Mr Hollande, he decided not to change his strategy
between the two rounds. He campaigned on ‘change’ and a more traditional presidency, where he would define the main course of policy but not manage ‘day-to-day affairs’, as Mr Sarkozy did. Education and the renegotiation of the EU Fiscal Compact remained at the heart of his programme.
François Hollande Born in 1954 Attended the Ecole nationale d’administration (ENA),
where he met Ségolène Royal (the Socialist candidate in the 2007 presidential election and mother of Mr Hollande’s four children) Was an economic adviser to President François Mitterrand Elected as a Member of Parliament in 1988 Succeeded Lionel Jospin as Leader of the Socialist Party in 1997 (a position he held until 2008) Won the presidential primary elections in November 2011 against the Leader of the Socialist Party, Martine Aubry Elected as French President on 6 May 2012
There was one televised debate, held on Wednesday 2 May. The eagerly-awaited debate was seen by many commentators as an evenly-matched contest. The debate quickly turned into a verbal sparring match that exposed differences in style (Mr Sarkozy even suggested that Mr Hollande was ‘too normal’ to be President). Mr Sarkozy defended his achievements and the austerity programme he had agreed with Angela Merkel. Mr Hollande confirmed his intention to support growth in Europe. Opinion polls showed that François Hollande was viewed as “more convincing” than Nicolas Sarkozy. In the end, the debate seems not to have had a significant impact on the result.
After the transfer of power from Nicolas Sarkozy to François Hollande on 15 May, the new President will appoint a prime minister and a government. Among the challengers to become PM is Martine Aubry, the Leader of the Socialist Party (and daughter of Jacques Delors, a former President of the European Commission). Ms Aubry is very popular, and was Mr Hollande’s
main opponent during the Socialists’ presidential primary elections. The Leader of the Socialists in the National Assembly, Jean-Marc Ayrault, is another contender. It is likely that the government will have an equal number of men and women.
between the two candidates. Mr Hollande wants to restore retirement at 60 for people who began working at the age of 18. In his term in office, Mr Sarkozy raised the retirement age to 62 years and proposed to increase it further.
A few days after taking office, Mr Hollande will go to Berlin at the invitation of Angela Merkel. Mr Hollande’s campaign director said that Mrs Merkel and Mr Hollande had agreed to work together on a “strong Franco-German relationship in the interest of Europe”. Mr Hollande will then participate in a G8 meeting at Camp David on 18-19 May and a Nato summit. He is likely to announce the withdrawal of French troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2012 (Mr Sarkozy planned to begin withdrawal in 2013). The new President is also likely to meet Barack Obama at the White House.
Education and employment were pillars of Mr Hollande’s manifesto. He pledged to create 60,000 new civil service jobs in education during his five-year term - and this will be a key test of his success in 2017. Mr Hollande believes that investment is needed in order to create jobs and get the economy moving.
Parliamentary elections will be held on 10 and 17 June. Together with the Greens and Far Left, the new Socialist government should get a majority. It is also possible that National Front candidates will enter Parliament, which reconvenes on 25 June.
Budgetary ‘golden rule’: Unlike Nicolas Sarkozy and François Bayrou, François Hollande is opposed to the constitutionalisation of the ‘golden rule’ on balanced budgets (as set out in the EU’s Fiscal Compact). The President-elect has said that France would always respect its budgetary commitments. Minimum wage: Contrary to far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Mr Hollande is against an artificial increase of the minimum wage. He proposed to base increases on growth: “For one per cent growth, we will increase the minimum wage by 0.5%”, he said. Tax framework: The President-elect differed radically from Mr Sarkozy on the issue of tax. He proposed to create a new (and controversial) tax bracket of 75% for individuals earning more than €1m per year. Mr Sarkozy said he would not create new tax brackets. However, the two candidates agreed on the creation of a tax on financial transactions. They both said they hoped that other European countries would also implement such a tax. Working hours: The socialist government of 1997-2002 introduced a 35-hour working week. Still much criticised, this law was softened by Mr Sarkozy, who created a tax exemption on additional working hours. Mr Hollande has pledged to abolish this exemption for companies with more than 20 employees. Retirement: The retirement age was also a point of disagreement
Presidential election, 2nd round
Before the first round of the presidential election, most candidates agreed on the need to improve France’s industrial base. Mr Hollande said that “economic patriotism aimed at encouraging the purchase of French products” could be an acceptable solution, but it is unclear what legal mechanisms could be enacted without falling foul of EU single market rules.
The Socialist Party is bound to an agreement with the Greens, which plans to bring the share of nuclear power in the French energy mix to 50% by 2025 (instead of 75% today). This agreement was weakened by the Greens’ poor score in the first round of the presidential election (their candidate, Eva Joly, scored only 2.3%). As a result, Mr Hollande has been cautious, and this is likely to remain the case during his presidency. He said that the decision to shut the Fessenheim plant, commissioned in 1978 and built in an area in eastern France that is vulnerable to seismic activity, was still valid. It means that the vast majority of the 58 French nuclear reactors will be kept during the next five years.
Mr Hollande’s focus on measures to increase growth - and to combat the negative impact of austerity - means that he will seek to renegotiate the EU’s Fiscal Compact. This will be Mr Hollande’s biggest challenge, given the painstaking preparations of the Compact and the fact that ratification is already underway. Despite the opposition of the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, to such a renegotiation, Mr Hollande said he will have a “firm and friendly discussion” with his German partner. He also wants to involve other European countries into the discussion, so that France and Germany do not make all the decisions alone. This week, Mr Hollande will send a “memorandum” to all European leaders, including some proposals to improve the Compact. His objective is to put greater emphasis on growth, as well as to create Eurobonds to fund future industrial and infrastructure projects. The memorandum is likely to suggest extending the role of the European Investment Bank, the introduction of a tax on financial transactions, and a more efficient use of structural development funds. Although dominated by centre-right politicians, there does seem to be a growing feeling among European leaders that more needs to be done to encourage growth. Mr Hollande’s more consensual style may also be appreciated by EU leaders who were previously cowed by Mr Sarkozy’s sometimes abrasive approach and his reliance on the Franco-German tandem rather than discussions among a wider group of EU leaders.