Much of Europe and the world held its breath as the Greeks voted on 17 June. This was an election that was widely perceived as determining Greece’s future in the eurozone. In the end, New Democracy, a proEuropean and pro-bailout party won a mandate to form a coalition government, taking nearly 30% of the vote. Antonis Samaras, the ND leader (pictured), has now been sworn in as prime minister. SYRIZA, the radical left party that came second in the inconclusive election in May, won more than a quarter of the vote - up from an already impressive (and record) score of 16.78% a month ago. With such a large proportion of the Greek population voting for a party that wants to renegotiate the terms of the bailout agreement, and others voting for parties that would quit the eurozone altogether, the Greek and European political and economic landscape remain fragile.
The Greek elections in May marked the collapse of the two-party dominance of the centre-right New Democracy (ND) and the Socialists (PASOK) as well as the emergence of more radical forces - the Radical Left (SYRIZA) and the extreme right (Golden Dawn). The outcome of the election was paralyzing fragmentation. The latest elections revealed a shift in electoral attitudes. Under the pressure of a looming currency default and the failure of the May elections, parties and voters became more risk-averse and half-heartedly regrouped. While May’s election was seen as a punishment vote against established parties, who are considered responsible for the current crisis and a brutal austerity programme, the June results could be seen as reflecting an overall expression of fear.
which was led by ND, considered Greece’s participation in the eurozone to be an absolute priority, and warned against the disastrous consequences of a potential withdrawal from the single currency area. The other major political discourse was championed by SYRIZA, and focused on messages of change in the Greek political landscape and the need to rebalance Greece’s relationship with its European partners. In essence, the election - even more clearly than the May poll presented a choice between a ‘pro-Memorandum’ direction and an ‘anti-Memorandum’ direction; it was a question of whether to stay in the euro at all costs - or not. The majority of Greeks see the eurozone as a protective shield and were therefore reluctant to take the risk of potentially going back to an immensely devaluated drachma. The June election putched the people’s fear of an unknown future outside the eurozone and their anger at the deteriorating standards of living. Fear of the unknown was a decisive factor.
The numbers speak for themselves: both ND and SYRIZA increased their share of the vote by more than ten percentage points, and there was a clear dwindling of support for the centreleft and extreme left (for example, the Communists dropped from the fifth-largest representation in parliament to the smallest, going from 26 to 12 seats.
This electoral preference was reflected in parties’ rhetoric. SYRIZA attempted to shift from its unilateral denouncement of the memorandum towards a more moderate strategy focused on renegotiations while also trying to stay in the euro.
This polarisation is indicative of the June electoral discourse, which was represented by two arguments. The first argument,
This shift, along with wide popular support for SYRIZA, led the other parties to mitigate their positions and to declare that they
Parliamentary elections
would also seek a renegotiation of the Memorandum, in effect dampening the discourse and the divide on this issue.
Votes
The New Democracy (ND) leader, Antonis Samaras, initiated discussions to form a coalition government. In his victory speech he said that he would pursue the establishment of a ‘national salvation’ government with all political forces willing to work towards this direction, and pledged to meet the country’s international obligations. The SYRIZA leader, Alexis Tsipras, immediately turned down Samaras’s proposal to join a coalition government, stating that SYRIZA would remain the main opposition party.
Composition of Parliament
A third round of elections was out of the question, and against the backdrop of domestic and international pressure to form a government without further delay, negotiations were successfully concluded between ND, the Socialists (PASOK), and the Democratic Left (DIMAR). Talks focused on defining the policy framework for the new administration and the cabinet line-up. Mr Samaras was sworn into office late on Wednesday 20 June and his cabinet is to be named the following day. Although neither PASOK nor DIMAR will provide any frontline members for the cabinet, they have asked for ideologicallyaligned figures to join the new government. PASOK in particular requested the creation of a ‘national negotiation team’, to lead the renegotiation of bailout terms. DIMAR focused on policy proposals, such as the extension of the fiscal adjustment programme and the revocation of certain exceptionally tough austerity measures.
Electoral attitudes Exit polls following the elections have provided important insights on electoral attitudes:
42.4% of voters cast their ballots to express their opposition to the Memorandum.
37.9% voted in order to ensure Greece’s position in the eurozone.
45.4% of those who cast an ‘anti-Memorandum’ vote made a positive choice to support their party.
45.9% of those who cast a ‘pro-eurozone’ vote supported a party mainly out of necessity to support the country’s European course.
83.4% of ‘pro-eurozone’ voters were mainly interested in the formation of a strong government. They wanted the government to implement further reforms deriving from the EU/IMF bailout programme so that political and financial stability can be restored.
Renegotiating the terms of the Memorandum, while respecting the country’s commitments to its creditors, is going to be the top priority of the new government. Further priorities include boosting market liquidity and putting in place growth policies, supporting the unemployed and lower income groups, enacting a structural public administration reform, proceeding with privatisation, and making optimal use of EU funds to finance major infrastructure projects. Due to anticipated intra-coalition frictions and fierce opposition from anti-Memorandum parties, the coalition is expected to be a rather fragile government of limited duration, probably until the European elections of 2014.
Election facts
The extreme-right Golden Dawn party retained its share of the vote, a score that is largely seen as reflecting an antisystem vote of anger, even though this time party representatives were exposed to the media, and voters had the chance to get acquainted with their rhetoric and practices. In one TV debate, a Golden Dawn member hit a female MP.
Parties failing to overcome the three per cent threshold to enter Parliament accounted for only 5.98% of the total vote, compared to 19.03% in May.
DIMAR will take part in the coalition government to prevent further elections and as a result has turned it into a key player. Its participation will provide the coalition government with a broader popular mandate and wider legitimacy.
Original text by the team at Advocate/Burson-Marsteller, BursonMarsteller’s affiliate in Greece. Visit www.advocate-bm.gr