The Kenyan general election, held on 4 March, saw Uhuru Kenyatta of The National Alliance (TNA - part of the Jubilee Coalition) declared winner, defeating Raila Odinga of the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD). However, his victory be short-lived if a petition filed with the Supreme Court to nullify his victory stands. Mr Odinga challenged the election of Mr Kenyatta as the fourth president of the Republic of Kenya, deeming the vote to be ‘tainted’. This may delay the swearing in of the President-elect. support. Uhuru Kenyatta won 6,173,433 votes, with Raila Odinga taking 5,340,546 votes. In doing so, Mr Kenyatta narrowly achieved the constitutional requirement of obtaining than 50% of the vote (his share was 50.07% - 4,100 votes above the 50% mark - against Mr Odinga’s 43.31%).
However, this approach may not be so practical. Kenya’s relations with China are not built on grants and donations, but on hard business contracts, and China is not a major consumer of Kenya’s foreign exchange earners - tea, coffee, tourism and horticulture.
The voting patterns clearly show a country highly polarised along ethnic lines - and in urgent need of healing. The Jubilee Coalition’s voters were mainly from Central Kenya and the Rift Valley while voters for the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) were comparatively well spread across the country.
Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto face the possibility of travel bans and diplomatic sanctions if they fail to co-operate with the ICC and Kenya risks becoming a pariah state.
Civil society groups, through the Africa Centre for Open Governance (Africacog), have also indicated that they will move to court to challenge the election result. In addition to this domestic challenge both Mr Kenyatta and his deputy president-elect, William Ruto, face charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
Mr Kenyatta says Kenya will continue to value its Western allies but adds that the country needs new friends. Its choice - perhaps China, Korea and Russia - will be determined by its own development needs.
Both Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto made it known from the outset that the election would be a referendum on the ICC process. Despite various challenges regarding their eligibility to run for public office (on the grounds that they do not meet the ‘integrity’ requirements in the Kenyan Constitution) both maintained their innocence and said that Kenyans had a right to elect leaders of their choice. Indeed, warnings by the international community that electing the two ICC indictees might attract trade and diplomatic sanctions seemed to galvanise and reinforce support for Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto. They argued that they were sacrificial lambs and that it is the incumbent President, Mwai Kibaki, and Mr Odinga who should have been on trial as the two main protagonists in the 2007-08 postelection violence . The European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom only congratulated Kenyans for keeping peace during the elections, maintaining their earlier stance that they will maintain minimal contacts with Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto should they be elected. Mr Kenyatta will now have to juggle his domestic responsibilities and his ICC trial, due to begin in the Spring. His Jubilee coalition will have problems pushing its agenda as it faces a hung Parliament and Senate. Like CORD, the Jubilee Alliance is a heterogeneous coalition and this may lead to a dysfunctional and divided legislature. In the Senate, CORD bagged 23 out of the 47 seats whereas in Parliament Jubilee secured 159 seats compared to CORD’s 139.
The Kenyatta-Ruto duo has publicly proclaimed that it will continue cooperating with the ICC but their victory may encourage them to defy further summons. The latter approach risks the imposition of sanctions, although the two are on record saying that they no longer need the West, with China and other nations able to fill the gap in trade and development
Some diplomatic missions have highlighted the right of Kenyans to elect the leaders of their choice but others - including the British High Commission - have indicated that their policy does not allow for formal relations with ICC indictees.
The Kenyatta government has promised to waive all primary healthcare fees, to ensured government-sponsored education until the age of 18 years, and provide solar-powered laptops for all school children, including at nursery level. Mr Kenyatta’s coalition also promised interest-free start-up capital for all youth enterprises.
Kenya’s ranking in the World Bank’s ‘Doing Business Index 2013’ has declined in recent years, partly due to high costs and cumbersome business regulations. The report indicates that Kenya has dropped to 121st position out of 185 countries. Mr Kenyatta faces an array of demands from the business community including an urgent review of costly inputs such as energy, labour and transport in order for Kenyan goods to compete in key markets. Other areas he will be asked to review include improved infrastructure, technology, review of regulations, the cost of devolution and improved revenue collection.
The legal challenge could lead to this being the longest presidential contest in the country’s history. It could go either way: if the challenge succeeds in the Supreme Court, new elections will be called for in June. If the case is dismissed, Mr Kenyatta will be sworn soon, possibly after 26 March. In the meantime, there is a risk to economic growth and a general sense of anxiety at the outcome. Original text by Desiree Gomes. For further information, contact Robyn de Villiers, Founder and Chairman, Arcay Burson-Marsteller (robyn.dv@arcaybm.com) arcay.com