The right-wing Liberals of Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Diederik Samsom’s Labour Party made strong gains in the Dutch general election on 12 September. It now seems likely that these two parties, from opposite ends of the political spectrum, will come together to form a coalition, with negotiations already underway. Mr Rutte's VVD party won 41 seats and Mr Samsom’s PvdA 38 in the 150-seat Lower House. The anti-islam and anti-EU Freedom Party (PVV), headed by Geert Wilders, came joint third, although it lost nine seats in Parliament, falling from 24 to 15 MPs. The far-left Socialist Party (SP), which had long been ahead of the PvdA in the opinion polls, also won 15 seats after its support fell away in recent weeks. The Christian Democrats (CDA), traditionally one of the major parties in Dutch politics, declined still further, from 21 to just 13 seats. The proEuropean Social Liberals (D66) gained two seats, winning a total of 12. Five smaller parties - including a party representing older people - won the rest of the seats.
The outcome shows that the antiEurope message of the far-left and farright parties did not get much traction with voters. The fall in support for Geert Wilders’ far -right PVV – which campaigned on a strongly nationalist platform, advocating withdrawal from the European Union and the return of the Netherlands’ former currency, the guilder – is a clear signal that the Dutch do not want to turn their backs on Europe. The electorate also seemed to punish Mr Wilders (above, right) for his decision to withdraw from the previous administration and force a general election. Although Dutch people remain generally critical of the Greek bailout packages and financial troubles in Southern Europe, they supported parties that have broadly pro-Europe standpoints.
This is the first time since 1994 that just two parties - in this case the Liberals (VVD) and Labour (PvdA) - are able to form a majority in the Lower House. The VVD and PvdA do not, however, have a majority in the Senate, and so may look for a third or fourth party to form a more stable administration, such as the Social Liberals (D66) or the Christian Democrats (CDA). It seems likely that the current Prime Minister, Mark Rutte (below - top), will continue to head the government when it is formed. Mr Samsom (below - bottom), a former Greenpeace activist who excelled in the debates and subsequently saw his party’s poll ratings soar, will nonetheless have a strong hand in the negotiations given the close nature of the result and his own personal popularity. The Netherlands is a country where coalitions are almost inevitable, and where very detailed agreements are made before a new government takes office.
“populism is finally in decline”. In March 2012, the Lower House of Parliament decided that the Queen would no longer coordinate the process of forming a government - including the ‘information’ stage, during which possible coalitions are explored. Now, the Lower House itself will take charge of the process. The Lower House has already appointed an ‘explorer’, Henk Kamp, a VVD member who was Minister of Social Affairs and Employment in the outgoing Rutte cabinet. He will talk to party leaders and draft advice for the Speaker of the Lower House. The Speaker will then, in turn, appoint one or more ‘informateurs’, who will aim to find out which combinations of political parties can form a new coalition. These informateurs will report their findings to the Lower House. The talks will lead to a draft government programme, outlining the goals of the government for the next four years. The informateur will recommend the appointment of a ‘formateur’. The Lower House will ask the formateur - usually the Prime Minister-designate - to form a government, once the likely coalition partners have reached an agreement on a draft government programme. The formateur – together with the negotiation partners from the government coalition partners – will put together a team of ministers and state secretaries (junior ministers). Ministries and positions are assigned on the basis of the size of the participating parties in the Lower House. When the team is complete, the cabinet will meet to sign the government programme and will report to the Lower House. The Queen will then officially appoint the ministers and state secretaries and the new government is in place. Given the involvement of several parties and the lengthy procedure for forming a government, negotiations are likely to continue for the rest of this year, perhaps even running into 2013. The VVD and PvdA have some major policy differences in important areas - something that became clear during the campaign and which they will now have to seek to overcome. Mark Rutte put forward a ‘stay the course’ message (with tough austerity measures and a smaller government) while the PvdA leader, Diederik Samsom advocated changing course (slower deficit reduction and protection of people’s incomes). Mr Rutte identifies with the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel; Mr Samsom with the French President, François Hollande. The key point of the government negotiations is set to be the measures necessary to stay within a maximum budget deficit of three per cent. Rapidly growing healthcare expenses and solutions to keep the budget under control also are high on the agenda. The housing market is another key issue to tackle, with issues in both the buying and rental markets.
Business groups VNO-NCW, MKB-Nederland and LTO Nederland, which represent businesses and employers in the Netherlands, stated their satisfaction with the outcome of the elections, highlighting that “the Netherlands has chosen the centre” and that
The business groups believe the outcome of the election will favour pro-European policies and that it should help bring about a stable coalition government, adding that this outcome is “good for Dutch entrepreneurs and for our international position, on which our economy so strongly depends.” Business in the Netherlands is keen to see entrepreneurship as a key government priority, to help lead the country to growth and recovery. Business groups also highlight the need for an ambitious and innovation-based growth agenda that focuses on the key strength of the Netherlands – people and knowledge – as well as a strong and professional export strategy to conquer Dutch market share in growth markets. Business will look to the government to cut spending, reform the job and housing markets, and address the issue of pensions. The euro crisis is also high on the agenda, but business has made it clear that even in the middle of the crisis the Netherlands still accrues a net benefit from its membership of the European Union.
The defeat of the Freedom Party (PVV), the clear support for Europe, and the likelihood of a stable coalition are all welcome outcomes of the election for European Union leaders. However, there is also a signal in the results that the Dutch will tolerate bailouts - but not without conditions. Austerity will remain a key part of the Dutch approach to the euro-crisis, especially if Mark Rutte remains Prime Minister (as seems likely). The recipients of bailout funding will have to show that they are making reforms and feeling the pain. This ‘conditional support’ applies to the Dutch approach to Europe as a whole. While voters backed parties that will support the euro and the Netherlands’ place in the EU, polling data showed that voters are hostile to greater European integration that could entail the transfer of more Dutch powers to EU institutions - including the mutualisation of debt. It seems highly unlikely that the Dutch will support the idea of greater political union, as set out by the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, in his State of the European Union speech on the same day as the Dutch election. Geert Wilders’ party may have suffered in the polls, but some of the Eurosceptic elements of his political philosophy are now firmly in the political mainstream in the Netherlands.