INSIGHT
SEPTEMBER 2014
Sweden’s Social Democrats have emerged as the largest party following parliamentary elections in Sweden, but are likely to have to form a minority administration. Although the Social Democrats, led by Stefan Löfven (pictured left) gained only one seat, the governing centreright Alliance lost more than 30 seats, mainly to the Sweden Democrats, an anti-immigration party, which more than double its number of representatives in parliament. Following his party’s defeat, the Prime Minister, Fredrik Reinfeldt, announced that he would stand down as PM and, in 2015, as leader of the Moderate Party, the biggest member of the four-party Alliance.
Photo: Magnus Länje
A new minority government, and a surge in support for the nationalist Sweden Democrats After eight years in government, the centre-right coalition, known as the ‘Alliance’, was defeated in Sunday’s election. The Social Democrats, who were already the largest party in the Swedish parliament, now look set to take control of the government under their leader, Stefan Löfven, with another minority administration (albeit one with fewer seats than the previous minority government headed by Moderate Party leader Fredrik Reinfeldt). The Social Democrats took 113 seats in the new Parliament, gaining only one seat, while the Moderates lost 23 seats, leaving them with 84 deputies. The three other parties in the Alliance - the Christian Democrats, the Liberal People’s Party, and the Centre Party also lost seats. While the Social Democrats are set to take office, there was only really one
winner in the election: the nationalist anti-immigration Sweden Democrats (SD), who established themselves as the third largest party in the Swedish parliament. The SD won 12.9% of the vote and won 49 seats, an increase of 29 on their performance in 2010.
invited to be part of the government, much to the dissatisfaction of the Left Party leadership. The most likely outcome at this stage seems to be a minority Social Democrat / Green coalition that looks both to the left and to the right for support in different policy areas. Some Swedish political commentators have expressed doubts over whether such an arrangement is workable, especially over the four years of a parliamentary term.
The increase in support for the SD gives the party a pivotal role in the new parliament, with neither the traditional centre-left or centre-right pacts able to form a majority. Two options: a cross-block coalition, or parliamentary instability
The dumping of the Left Party from a potential coalition is seen as an overture to the two centrist parties the Centre Party (C) and the Liberal People’s Party (FP), which fought the election as part of the Alliance.
The results make the parliamentary situation challenging for the main parties. Stefan Löfven, as the most likely candidate to become Prime Minister-, has promised to open talks with both the left and the right, but has already stated that he will not work with the Sweden Democrats. Mr Löfven also announced on Monday that the Left Party - which had been part of a centre-left pact with the Social Democrats and the Greens in the 2010 election - would not be
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of Swedes turned out to vote in the elections
Mr Löfven will have to use all his negotiation experience from his time as President of one of the major industrial trade unions, Metall, as he tries to end ten years of a united centre-right Alliance. His principal goal will be to gain enough support to prevent the Sweden Democrats from gaining influence.
Social Democratic Party (S)
113 (+1)
31.2%
Moderate Party (M)
84 (-23)
23.2%
Left Party (V)
21 (+2)
5.7%
Christian Democrats (KD)
17 (-2)
4.6%
Green Party (MP)
24 (-1)
6.8%
Liberal People’s Party (FP)
19 (-5)
5.4%
Centre Party (C)
21 (-1)
6.1%
Sweden Democrats (SD)
49 (+29)
12.9%
Feminist Initiative (F!)
0 (-)
3.1%
All other parties
0 (-)
0.9%
Political impact of the results The election saw a major shift from the Moderates to the Sweden Democrats, with dissatisfied voters from Fredrik Reinfeldt’s party making up 29 per cent of the vote for the SD. Mr Reinfeldt resigned as Prime Minister, and announced that he will also be leaving his post as leader of the Moderates in 2015. Like the Moderates, the Liberal People’s Party saw its number of seats cut by around one fifth, while the Christian Democrats - despite losing only two of their 19 seats - only just managed to enter parliament (it scored 4.6 per cent, 0.6 percentage points above the threshold). The Social Democrats themselves performed poorly, only just improving on their 2010 score (which was the party’s worst performance since the Second World War). Their ‘victory’ was far from resounding. The Left Party also gained seats, while the Greens - thought to have been the main challenger for third spot - scored only 6.8 per cent of the vote, and was roundly defeated for third position by the Sweden Democrats - the only real winner.
For more information please contact: Karen Massin Chair, EMEA Public Affairs Practice karen.massin@bm.com
Feminist Initiative - which won a seat in the European Parliament at the election in May, was unable to repeat its success at national level, gaining only 3.1 per cent of the vote (and no seats). It did win representation at a local level in county and municipal elections held on the same day. The overall picture was one of dissatisfaction with the main parties, greater fragmentation of the political scene, and a difficult situation for the parties to manage.
Stable state finances did not grant the outgoing Alliance government a victory. Instead, the Social Democrats are likely to enter government and increase public spending through higher taxes, specifically income tax. However, the Social Democrats have also expressed support for industryfriendly initiatives aimed at furthering innovation and trade. In many areas there is still uncertainty over the direction of policy, as it will depend on whether the government looks to the left or right to build a parliamentary majority on an issue.
David O’Leary Director, Government Relations, Brussels david.oleary@bm.com
Fredrik Reinfeldt (pictured right) had been Swedish PM for eight years
One of the most challenging areas is the deregulation of the welfare sector, education, healthcare and elderly care, and the extent to which private investors should be allowed to continue to perform publicly-financed services. The left and right are heavily divided on these issues. Other policy areas that may prove challenging include: Energy policy, mainly with regard to the future of nuclear power Infrastructure initiatives, especially regarding investments in public transport and road infrastructure in Stockholm. The future of Sweden’s defence Immigration and policies relating to refugees Original text by Mia Öhrn, BursonMarsteller Sweden burson-marsteller.se
Mia Öhrn Manager, Public Affairs, Stockholm mia.ohrn@bm.com