BURSON-MARSTELLER INSIGHT

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Thursday 3 May was a good day for the Labour Party and its leader, Ed Miliband (right), as it gained 823 local council seats across the UK, and took control of 32 additional councils. There were elections in 128 English councils, all 32 Scottish councils, 21 Welsh councils and in the Greater London Authority. Aside from the London mayoral election, which was largely a contest of personalities who eclipse their own parties, the day belonged to Labour. The Westminster coalition government was left battered by a loss of more than 400 council seats for the Conservatives and of 330 for their junior partner in the UK government, the Liberal Democrats. General mid-term election blues were compounded by a backlash against the Government by voters angry at the bite of austerity as the UK enters a double-dip recession. The saving grace for the Conservative Party was that it kept hold of the keys to London’s City Hall, with the re-election of Boris Johnson as Mayor. The turnout, at just 32%, was one of the lowest in local elections for more than a decade. The Liberal Democrat candidate, Brian Paddick, secured less than half the votes he received in 2008, and fell into fourth position, behind the Green Party's Jenny Jones. In London, the Conservative candidate, Boris Johnson, beat Labour’s Ken Livingstone to win a second term as mayor. The final margin of victory was just three percentage points (after adding the ’second preference’ votes of supporters of the other candidates who were eliminated after the first round of counting). It seems that the Conservative Party dragged down the vote of the popular Mr Johnson (simply known as ‘Boris’) and the Labour Party pushed up the vote of the unpopular Mr Livingstone (also universally known by his first name). These dynamics made for a close (if unusual) contest. Mr Livingstone struggled in his battle to create a contest that was about policy rather than personality. Mr Johnson’s campaign was more polished than it was four years ago, yet he continues to be loved by many Londoners for his personality and charisma. Boris generated headlines by swearing in a television interview, but this unbrushed approach helped secure his image as a maverick. His fiercely independent political style as Mayor has also helped to distance him from the wider Conservative Party and the government. Mr Livingstone also made several gaffes - weeping at his own election video did not help overturn the perception that he takes himself too seriously. His decision to go after Boris on the issue of tax evasion ultimately backfired. Ken’s flagship ‘Fare Deal’ policy (which promised to cut transport fares by seven per cent, saving some Londoners £1,000 a year) came under fire for not being properly costed - a charge leveled and several other pledges too. Ultimately, Mr Livingstone was seen by many as a tired candidate and was punished at the ballot box - not least by Labour supporters, who abandoned him in droves.

The uniqueness of the mayoral contest was confirmed by the elections to the London Assembly (the body that scrutinises the work of the Mayor). Labour won 12 of the 25 seats, making gains from the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and the far-right British National Party.

Across the rest of England the Labour Party gained 22 councils and held the 39 councils they already controlled. The result is a boost for the Labour leader, Ed Miliband, who has faced criticism that he has failed to make an impact as Leader of the Opposition. His welcome of the results was measured. He said, "We are a party winning back people's trust, regaining ground, but there is more work to do.” The Conservatives lost control of ten councils, many of them to Labour or to ‘no overall control’ (with no single party having a majority). The Liberal Democrats were further punished for their role in the coalition government at Westminster: the number of LibDem councillors has fallen below 3,000 for the first time in the party's history. Respect, a left-wing party formed in the wake of the invasion of Iraq in 2003, unseated the Labour leader of Bradford City Council, and took five seats. The far right did badly. The British National Party losing all of its


six seats whilst the Greens party secured five additional councillors.

UK local elections London Mayoral election

The local elections were also paired with a series of referenda in the UK’s largest cities. Voters were asked if they wanted a London -style directly-elected mayor, as part of the Westminster government’s ’localism agenda’. Most of the big cities said no. Birmingham, Sheffield, Nottingham, Manchester, Bradford, Coventry, Wakefield, Leeds and Newcastleupon-Tyne all voted against the creation of a directly-elected mayor. Only Bristol voted in favour of having an elected mayor although turnout was just 24.1%. Doncaster voted to retain its mayor, having been one of the earliest authorities to adopt the mayoral system in 2001.

In Wales, Labour had its best results since 1996, retaking control of former strongholds that it had lost in 2008 (including Cardiff, Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, Newport and Swansea). The Welsh Conservatives lost 61 seats in Wales, and lost control of councils in Monmouthshire and the Vale of Glamorgan. The Liberal Democrats were punished even harder, losing 66 seats. The Welsh nationalist party, Plaid Cymru, also had a bad election. It lost 41 council seats across Wales, and also lost control of one council.

In Scotland, the picture was somewhat different. The Scottish National Party (SNP), which has a majority in the Scottish Parliament and runs the Scottish Government, won the most seats across the 32 authorities, increasing its number of councillors by 57 and winning their first majorities on two councils, Dundee and Angus. Labour also gained control of two additional councils in Scotland, including Scotland’s largest city, Glasgow, where is denied the SNP one of its top targets. Labour gained 58 councillors to bring its total to 394. The other winners in Scotland were the Greens, who boosted their tally by six councillors, to bring them to a total of 14. The losers were, once again, the coalition parties, with the Conservatives losing 16 seats and the Liberal Democrats more than 80 - half of the party’s representation in local government in Scotland. Losers included the LibDem leader of Edinburgh Council, Jenny Dawe.

With the exception of London, the fallout from these elections does not bode well for the coalition government of David Cameron’s Conservatives and Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats. This week, the pair is attempting to 'relaunch’ the coalition with a joint event and the Queen's Speech, which unveils the government’s legislative programme for the next year.

Local elections

Privately, most of the losses for the Conservatives will be dismissed as inevitable mid-term blues. The overall share of the vote – 38% for Labour and 31% for the Conservatives - was more favourable to the Conservatives than the pre-election opinion polls had suggested and not as crushing as Labour’s mid-term election defeat under Gordon Brown in 2008. Mr Cameron does face some internal problems, with some of his parliamentary party calling on him to move further to the right, with an even tougher line on cuts and on the UK’s role in the European Union. The Prime Minister is unlikely to move too far, as it could risk the pact with the Liberal Democrats. One measure in the Queen’s Speech - reform of the upper house of Parliament, the House of Lords, to make it democratically elected - is dear to the Liberal Democrats but opposed by many Conservatives. Mr Cameron will need to steer a steady course. The Liberal Democrats – who polled at 16% - appear to be suffering a far deeper crisis that will quite possibly see them decimated as a UK political force by the next general election in 2015 without a significant change of tack. At a time when the election results of other EU member states supposedly point to economic cataclysm and the end of the euro, Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg insist that the UK must stay on the path of austerity. Companies remain confident despite the British economy entering a double-dip recession, possibly because there is certainty about the economic course. The prime minister will say that, with the eurozone in extreme trouble, it is more important than ever for Britain to stick to the government’s plan to tackle the deficit. For Ed Milliband this election has been the lifeline he needs but questions will remain over whether he has what it takes to return the Labour Party to power in the next General Election.


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