BURSON-MARSTELLER INSIGHT
The Polish presidential elections Komorowski wins narrow election to take Presidency for centre-right 6 July 2010
Bronislaw Komorowski, the candidate of the ruling centre-right Civic Platform (PO) party, has narrowly won the Polish presidential election. Mr Komorowski beat Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of the conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, in the second round of voting, polling 53.01% to Mr Kaczynski’s 46.99%. The presidential election, initially scheduled for autumn this year, had been brought forward following the death of the previous president, Lech Kaczynski, in the Smolensk air crash in April. Policy impact President to focus on foreign policy and EU relations The main impact of Mr Komorowski’s will be in foreign policy, where he will work hard to maintain a common front with Mr Tusk as Poland approaches 2011, and its first-ever presidency of the EU (from July to December 2011). Whereas Lech Kaczynski was universally seen as more Atlanticist, Eurosceptic, and wary of Russia, Mr Komorowski made it clear in his campaign that his focus will be elsewhere, specifically Brussels and Poland’s immediate Western neighbours, Germany and France. Mr Komorowski, Mr Tusk, and Civic Platform (PO) in general, hold great store in these relationships, believing them to be the key to Poland maintaining influence at the heart of Europe. We are therefore likely to see a more emollient approach to European issues from the new leadership in the months to come, leading into the country’s presidency of the EU. In particular, Mr Komorowski will work hard to create an alliance in Europe around Poland’s priorities for the 20142020 financial perspectives (including regional development support), and over such issues as the development of a common European Defence and Security Identity. The most evident shift will be over Russia, which could also have an important impact on the EU’s relations with the Kremlin. Mr Komorowski, as acting president, led an effort by the Tusk government to deepen relations with Poland’s eastern neighbour, taking advantage of the rapprochement following the Smolensk air disaster. It remains to be seen how longlasting this coming together will be, particularly given the range of genuine conflicts of interest between Poland and Russia.
Impact on the government A new foreign minister? Personnel issues also need to be addressed. As Mr Komorowski formally moves from being Speaker of Parliament to Polish President, Civic Platform (PO) will need
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to nominate a Speaker that can command a majority in parliament. This might not be easy, as it will need to rely on the votes of the Polish Peasant Party (PSL), the junior coalition partner, which may not be minded to be as cooperative as in the past, following the heavy defeat of its candidate in the first round of the presidential election. Names being floated include the health minister, Ewa Kopacz, who could become Poland’s first female Speaker. There may also be changes in two key ministries – foreign affairs and defence. It is by no means certain that Radoslaw Sikorski is secure in his position as foreign minister following the victory of Mr Komorowski (Mr Sikorski had run against the new President in the primary election for the PO
nomination, and although he supported Mr Komorowski during the campaign, the President may not feel comfortable in keeping him as foreign minister, especially as the EU presidency approaches). Mr Sikorski return as defence minister, to take over from the much-criticised Bogdan Klich, and his job as foreign minister may be taken by Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz, a former left-wing Prime Minister and foreign minister who demonstrably supported Mr Komorowski early in the campaign. Giving that job to Mr Cimoszewicz will be a reward, as well as a tactic, putting him in a crucial role in the
PO electoral strategy of expanding its voter base to the left in an attempt to maintain popular support.
Impact on PO A victory, but a dilemma lies ahead The result ends a period of ‘cohabitation’ between the Civic Platform (PO) government, led by the Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, and the Law and Justice (PiS) presidency, and opens up a new chapter in Polish politics – a chapter that may not, however, be to the advantage of the ruling party and Mr Tusk. Although Mr Komorowski will now be sworn in as President in early August, his victory does not necessarily presage a bright future for PO. The very fact that Jaroslaw Kaczynski (who was catapulted into the election race only three months ago as a result of the death of his twin brother) almost managed to win the election will be a signal to PO that not all is well in how they are perceived by the Polish people. (Furthermore, Jaroslaw Kaczynski has long been portrayed by the media as the less electable of the twins, and would supposedly trigger a strong national vote in favour of any opponent – something that did not arise.) Most of Mr Komorowski’s campaign was centred on reform, and the role of Lech Kaczynski in blocking key legislative proposals. Now Mr Komorowski and Mr Tusk have to deliver that reform – a major challenge, particularly for the Prime Minister, and one that may result in genuine social pain in the short term, just one year before parliamentary elections and six months before local elections. Few really believe that Mr Tusk will risk electoral popularity, even if it damages the reforming credentials of him and his government. It is a Catch-22 situation that PiS, buoyed by the closeness of the election, are keen to profit from. Indeed, one option being floated by some PO leaders is to hold a snap general election in the autumn of this year in order to try to avoid this dilemma. The way forward for PO is not easy, since the campaign victory has brought them more problems than solutions. During the campaign, the hitherto isolated ex-communist SLD party regained both popular support and general political legitimacy, and relations with the PO’s junior coalition partner, the PSL (Polish Peasant Party), have been much damaged. Above all, the dynamics of the campaign caused Mr Komorowski to make promises that the government may not be able to deliver – to the long-term advantage of PiS.
Impact on the PiS Law and Justice takes heart from a narrow defeat Law and Justice (PiS) has achieved great success in laying a credible claim to winning the next parliamentary elections in
2011. The party has rocketed from a 28% rating in the national opinion polls to its leader taking almost 50% of the vote in a large national turnout – at a time when many observers felt that the party itself is more popular than its leader. PiS will be hugely emboldened by this result, as will its supporters – it is they who have the momentum, while Civic Platform (PO) – having long seemingly claimed sole ownership of the hearts and minds of the Polish people – will be regarded as having fallen short of expectations. Jaroslaw Kaczynski now has the best of both worlds – a strong electoral base, and the luxury of being able to watch PO tackle the pitfalls of governing Poland over the next 18 months in an increasingly hostile international economic environment. He has also cemented his own leadership of the PiS party, at a time when many were coming to believe that, firstly, he was unelectable, and secondly, that the trauma of having lost his brother had made him lose his appetite for politics altogether. Instead, the result seems likely to energise Mr Kaczynski and drive him forward in galvanising his party to face the next two elections as a united force. Many of the putative successors to Mr Kaczynski will have to wait their turn – for another couple of years at least. Another important impact of the result on the PiS is that it is likely to make the party more moderate; the party has achieved its relative success precisely by toning down some of its more radical messages of the past. That tactic has brought dividends and will likely be replicated in future campaigns.
Conclusion Unity Builds? Bronislaw Komorowski ran his campaign on the slogan of ‘Unity Builds’. Now that Poland is as politically divided as ever, he will have a crucial role to play in determining whether the government does seek to take account of the views of the nearly 50% of the electorate which rejected it, or whether instead the elections are interpreted as a signal that just one more push against the PiS opposition is needed to defeat it completely in the upcoming set of elections. If Mr Komorowski fails to disarm the opposition, in just over a year’s time he may well find himself in the position of his predecessor – possessing a popular mandate, but facing a hostile government and with no real influence over the realities of day-to-day politics in Poland.
Original text by Marek Matraszek, CEC Government Relations, Warsaw. CEC Government Relations is BursonMarsteller’s exclusive public affairs affiliate in Poland. For more information, please contact us or visit cecgr.com.
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