BURSON-MARSTELLER INSIGHT
The Estonian general election Estonia keeps it course as the Right is re-elected 7 March 2011
Despite an economic downturn and severe public spending cuts, Estonians have returned the ruling right-wing coalition to power. Voters backed the sitting government, led by Andrus Ansip of the Reform Party (Reformierakond), and its controversial cuts. These have resulted in a high unemployment rate, but also helped Estonia to join the eurozone at the beginning of this year. The election, which took place on 6 March, saw the highest turnout for many years, with 62.9 per cent of the electorate voting. Nearly one in six voters submitted an ‘e-vote’: 15.4% of votes were made via internet or Mobile Phone, confirming Estonia’s reputation as a leader in the digitisation of democracy. The government The ruling coalition returned Preliminary results showed that the ruling right-wing coalition of the liberal Reform Party and conservative Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (Isamaa ja Res Publica Liit) was supported by nearly 50% of the voters. The coalition gained 56 seats in the 101-member parliament. The Reform Party gained two seats compared to the previous Parliament; the Pro Patria and Res Publica Union were up four. The result forms a good base for Mr Ansip to continue in his role as prime minister, a position he has held for almost six years. The Reform Party has been in power since 1999. The success of Reform Party brought a seat in parliament for Kaja Kallas, an attorney and the daughter of the European Commissioner for Transport, Siim Kallas. She obtained 7,157 votes, an astonishing personal mandate that accounted for more than 4% of all the Reform Party’s votes. This is even more remarkable considering that she joined the party only in November 2010.
The Social Democrats had the biggest gain, almost doubling its number of MPs (from ten to 19). Led by a new and ambitious chairman, Sven Mikser, the party aims to lead the government by the time of the 2015 elections. Another major shift in the parliamentary landscape took place, as only four parties will sit in parliament. The Estonian Green Party and the Estonian People’s Party did not meet the 5% threshold for entry into parlament, winning only 3.8% and 2.1% of the vote respectively.
EU impact Re-negotiating the bailout Estonia is expected to keep its current course, and no drastic changes in domestic or foreign policy are expected.
The results in detail Party
Seats
+/-
Share (%)
Reform Party (affiliated to ELDR)
33
+2
28.6
Central Party (ELDR)
26
-3
23.3
Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (EPP)
23
+4
20.5
Social Democrats
19
+9
17.1
Green Party
0
-6
3.8
People’s Party
0
-6
2.1
The opposition Bitter-sweet fortunes Despite economic recession and a high unemployment rate, centrist and left-wing parties did not win over enough voters to form a government.
Contact Robert Mack Chair, EMEA Public Affairs Practice
The biggest opposition party, the Central Party (Keskerakond), lost three seats. Led by the controversial and charismatic Mayor of Tallinn, Edgar Savisaar, the party suffered amidst a scandal of alleged funding from Russia. However, Edgar Savisaar did score an all-time record of 23,012 personal votes. This victory was achieved principally through the mobilisation of Russianspeaking voters in the capital.
Harry Tuul Hamburg & Partners
Burson-Marsteller EMEA Public Affairs Practice 37 Square de Meeûs, 1000 Brussels • Tel +32 2 743 66 11 • Fax +32 2 733 66 11 robert.mack@bm.com • www.burson-marsteller.eu
Mr Ansip, and conservative Pro Patria and Res Publica Union leader Mart Laar, have already publicly pledged to form a new right-wing government. The main challenges are social, as the unemployment rate in Estonia is still one of the highest in the EU. However, the economy has returned to growth in the last two quarters – albeit with one of the highest inflation rates in EU. The new government will have its first electoral test in the autumn, when the presidential election will take place.
Original text by Harry Tuul, analyst and consultant for Hamburg & Partners communication bureau, Tallinn. Hamburg & Partners is Burson-Marsteller’s exclusive public relations and public affairs affiliate agency in Estonia. For more information, please contact harry.tuul@hamburg.ee.