Future Perspective - August 2009

Page 1

August 2009


CONSUMER/TECH: Virtual Tourism

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Is Virtual Tourism the way of the future or is Home set to be the new Abroad?

➔ The European Union's Emergence Project found that by 2010, 27 million Europeans will work from home at least part of their work week, with employees in the United Kingdom leading the trend. The number of jobs filled by telecommuters could grow nearly fourfold to 19 million by 2012.

Insurance/Legal Issues

➔ Annually over 700 million people engage in international

➔ Companies will need increasingly sophisticated insurance,

travel. Tourism’s contribution to national economies goes way beyond foreign exchange earnings and revenue from taxes and employment.

healthcare and legal liability policies to deal with an absent – home-based – and ageing workforce. http://photoskml.googlepages.com/gallery.htm#sftour

➔ From being very beach-orientated, tourism has become more sophisticated and fragmented; particularly with the advent of low cost airlines offering a gateway to previously inaccessible destinations.

➔ Technology presents both an opportunity and a threat to tourism as increasingly savvy travelers cut out travel agents and trawl the net for information on destinations, climate, ratings and the best deals.

HR: Survival of the Eldest An ageing workforce will bring employers a multitude of issues to deal with, not least ensuring that brain power matches staying power.

➔ This is already changing the whole competitive framework but imagine a time where tourists choose NOT to visit a country with a bad ecological record or where the damage caused by long haul flights completely transforms our travel options. When it is no longer possible to hop on a plane and be on another continent 9 or 12 hours later because the environmental fall-out can no longer be countenanced.

➔ To save the planet we may even need to limit our tourism to the virtual world. This could provide opportunities for Second Life, GoogleEarth or any number of new start ups able to offer experiential products and services.

➔ On the other hand, that would decimate travel operators, airlines and the hotel industry. And Home would have to become the new Abroad.

➔ The world's 65 and older population is expected to reach 1.53 billion by the year 2050, three times more than the 516 million alive today. By mid-century, 16 percent of the world's population is expected to be 65 or older.

➔ The 85-and-older group will increase from 40 million in 2009 in the world to 219 million by mid-century.

➔ By 2050, 100 countries will have an older population

➔ For the most part, it will be about adapting existing policy types to the many specific life situations that older adults find themselves in. After all, a 70-year old man married to 40-year old woman needs just as much insurance as a 40-year old man.

➔ Laws about age discrimination will become more robust. Mental Agility/Memory Protection

➔ The elderly, being the most resistant to change, will have to cope with radically and rapidly evolving technologies and environments.

➔ There will be an increased need for cognitive training and tools that will ensure that the silver workforce maintains its mental fitness as well as keeps up to date with technologies that will be evolving exponentially.

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accounting for 20 percent or more of their country, with Europe remaining the world's oldest region.

Flexibility/Human Rights

➔ As the workforce ages, employers will have to build flexibility into working hours to allow workers to build in more rest, as well as the possibility of absences for care giving to their own even more elderly parents.

http://games.lumosity.com/chimp.html


HEALTHCARE: Age shall not wither them The elderly population will also shape healthcare the world over.

➔ 65% of health care costs are spent on over 65 yr olds.

➔ Increased longevity is a triumph for public health and the result of social and economic development. Nevertheless, many individuals will face, as they age, the risk of having at least one chronic disease, such as diabetes, hypertension or osteo-muscular conditions.

➔ On a positive note, looming on the horizon are some very promising drug discoveries. The biotech industry is developing new therapies that can cure such diseases as Alzheimer’s — treatments that are bound to lead to the world’s first “lifestyle” drugs that deal with forgetfulness.

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people and yet you would be forgiven for not realising this.

inappropriate medication, malnutrition and a lack of dignity, privacy and confidentiality.

The reality is that:

• Treatment for minor strokes is often covertly rationed for people over 80 years of age.

have tests if they are over 65.

• Priorities for health and social care restrict targets for reducing heart disease, strokes and cancer to people under 75.

• Invitations to breast screening stop for women over 70. • Older people tend to be excluded from drug trials.

http://tiny.cc/LywZo

➔ Cause-related marketing can increase sales as much as 74 percent in certain consumer-goods categories, and consumers spend twice as long looking at cause-related ads than generic corporate ones.

➔ In 2009 Tesco announced staff and customers had raised

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CSR: It’s good to give As consumers come to grips with the new world order post the global banking crisis and world recession, they are increasingly looking to organisations that share their concerns and reflect that in their marketing.

➔ In addition, the majority of older people will be living in developing countries that are often the least prepared to confront the challenges of rapidly ageing societies.

associated with a good cause every second.

over £6.1 million for their Charity of the Year, Marie Curie Cancer Care. This total was the result of 14 months of fundraising in stores, distribution centres and offices across the UK. The amount raised breaks all previous fundraising records for a Tesco Charity of the Year partnership and – significantly – comes despite the recent economic downturn.

➔ Media headlines shriek of abuse, neglect or carelessness,

• Angina sufferers are less likely to see a specialist or to

business basics, consumer engagement and bottom line benefits, while also benefiting the health and prosperity of the wider community.

➔ Consumers in the UK are now purchasing a product

➔ 75% of pharma shares are owned by the over 65s. ➔ The pharma industry is owned by older people for older

➔ It has the potential to form a link between business ethics,

➔ Cause Related Marketing is not philanthropy, nor is it altruism; it is consumer-led and market driven. Used correctly and efficiently, Cause Related Marketing can also impact directly on the bottom line.

http://tiny.cc/ejc3C


ENERGY/LOGISTICS: Oil terrorism

➔ These issues are just one part of the complex issue of energy security. Beyond the threat of terrorism, energy security is becoming an issue of increasing importance to the United States and its European allies, as some energy producers are showing a tendency to use oil and gas as political leverage.

The possibility of energy terrorism - attacks on the world’s energy infrastructure - may not generate the same attention as potential chemical or biological or nuclear terrorism. But the economic implications of such attacks are potentially enormous.

➔ The world’s vulnerability to supply disruptions will increase

➔ Many believe that there is a ‘‘terror premium’’ factored into

➔ Flourishing trade will strengthen the mutual dependence

the price of a barrel of oil and that oil terrorism is emerging as a major threat to the global economy.

➔ The vulnerability of Saudi Arabia to energy terrorism is a particular concern. Saudi Arabia is the world’s most important oil-producing country, being the largest exporter and the only country with significant excess production capacity. Over the last few years there have been several deadly attacks on Western oil workers. These have disrupted oil markets and had the effect of driving up insurance premiums.

as international trade expands. Recent geopolitical developments and surging energy prices have brought that message dramatically home.

among exporting and importing countries. But it will also exacerbate the risks that wells or pipelines could be closed or tankers blocked by piracy, terrorist attacks or accidents.

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➔ Pipelines, which carry one-half the world’s oil and most of its natural gas, are generally built above ground, making them common targets for terrorists and insurgents. There is concern that insurgents, having gained expertise from attacking Iraqi pipelines, will transfer their skills elsewhere.

➔ Global shipping “chokepoints” [such as the Strait of Malacca] are vulnerabilities in the world’s energy system. Various troubling scenarios are possible, including a terrorist hijacking of an oil tanker, to be turned into a floating bomb that could be detonated in a busy seaport.

http://tiny.cc/eNsBh

CONTACT: Elaine Cameron Manager Strategic Research & Innovation EMEA elaine.cameron@bm.com Stéphanie Bonnet Managing Director Strategic Research & Innovation EMEA stephanie.bonnet@bm.com http://www.burson-marsteller.eu


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