1998 Annual Report - Melbourne Institute

MELBOURNE INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

Annual Report 1998 and Outlook 1999–2000

Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Level 7, Economics and Commerce Building The University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria 3052 Australia Phone: (03) 9344 5330 Fax: (03) 9344 5630 Email: melb.inst@iaesr.unimelb.edu.au WWW: http://www.ecom.unimelb.edu.au/iaesrwww/home.html

CONTENTS Some Highlights ........................................................................................................................................ 3 Introduction to the Melbourne Institute.................................................................................................... 4 Director’s Report....................................................................................................................................... 6 Staff, Associates and Research Students..................................................................................................... 8 Advisory Board ........................................................................................................................................ 10 Research Programs ................................................................................................................................. 12 Contributions to Policy Analysis and Debates.......................................................................................... 14 Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum ..................................................................................... 16 Conferences............................................................................................................................................. 18 Publications by Subscription ................................................................................................................... 20 Staff Publications, Seminars and Media Coverage.................................................................................... 25 Finance and Performance Indicators ....................................................................................................... 32 Outlook for 1999 and 2000..................................................................................................................... 34

©

1999 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research

COPYRIGHT: All rights reserved. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing of the Publisher.

ISSN 1441–1423 Desktop publishing by Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne (Nellie Lentini) Printed by Impact Printing

SOME HIGHLIGHTS • Vigorous contribution to analysis and debate

on tax reform.

• Important contribution to the prominent ‘Five

Economists’ plan to reduce unemployment.

• Economic forecasting performance continues

to be widely recognised.

• Major conference on the Asian crisis.

• Began to build the Melbourne Institute Tax and

Transfer Simulator (MITTS) in association with the Department of Family and Community Services.

Seated from left: Professor John Freebairn, Professor Peter Dawkins and Associate Professor David Johnson PRESS CONFERENCE ON TAX REFORM, 1 SEPTEMBER 1998

• Relationships maintained and extended with relevant private and public organisations and

community groups such as Westpac, William M. Mercer, IBIS, Reserve Bank of Australia, Department of Family and Community Services, Productivity Commission, Australian Taxation Office, Victorian Department of State Development, Committee for Economic Development of Australia and the Brotherhood of St Laurence.

• Launched the Innovation Scoreboard.

• Launched the Australian Social Monitor.

Performance Indicators Melbourne Institute performance indicators registered increases in: • national competitive research grants

• other research funding

• total external research income

• subscriptions to Melbourne Institute products

• articles in refereed journals (which more than doubled)

• total publications

• media references

• research higher degree students

Melbourne Institute staff published 34 articles in refereed journals including, for example, Economic Record, Australian Economic Review, Journal of Industrial Relations, Journal of Economic Studies, Manchester School, Australian Economic Papers, History of Economics Review, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, New Zealand Economic Papers, Economica, Bulletin of Economic Research, Economic Analysis and Policy, Journal of Management Development, and Asia Pacific Journal of Human Resource Management.

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INTRODUCTION TO THE MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Vision, Mission, Focus, History and Strategic Objectives Vision To help the world to see economic and social issues more clearly and to foster a hard-headed but soft-hearted approach to economic and social modelling, indicators and policy analysis.

Mission The Melbourne Institute seeks to build highly skilled and focused research teams to conduct nationally and internationally recognised, independent and impartial research on economic and social modelling, indicators and policy analysis. It aims to be important for government, business and community groups in Australia, as well as a leading academic centre of excellence, by producing high profile and high quality publications and reports, holding valuable conferences, seminars and briefings and contributing strongly to public policy analysis and discussion. It also seeks to develop distinctive world class intellectual property and to transfer some of that to other countries, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.

Focus Unifying Theme The unifying theme of the Melbourne Institute’s research agenda is to examine the determinants of both economic performance and social outcomes and to explore the mutual relationship between the two.

Expertise and Intellectual Property The Melbourne Institute’s expertise and intellectual property lie in: • economic and social modelling • economic and social surveys and indicators • economic and social policy analysis Research Programs Its expertise and intellectual property are especially focused on the following research programs: • Business Cycles, Forecasting and Economic Indicators • Innovation, Productivity and Enterprise Performance • Labour Markets and Human Resources • Fiscal Studies • Social Surveys and Indicators

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History The Melbourne Institute was formed in 1962 under the leadership of Professor Ronald Henderson. It was the first economics research institute in an Australian university. Ronald Henderson built up an organisation with about 40 staff by the early 1970s. It engaged in a wide range of research areas including macroeconomic forecasting, financial economics and social economics, and is best remembered for its work on poverty and the development of the Henderson Poverty Line.

After the Henderson era, Professor Peter Dixon was appointed Director and, after some restructuring, the new Melbourne Institute based its operation around Dixon’s ORANI model of the Australian economy. In the early 1990s Peter Dixon and a number of his senior colleagues left the Institute to join Monash University. This necessitated a second period of adjustment and restructuring initiated by Professor Richard Blandy who was Director from 1992 to 1994.

The current Director, Professor Peter Dawkins, took up his position in January 1996. In 1996 the Director and his senior management team, in association with the staff and the advisory board, developed a strategic plan with the unifying theme being the link between economic performance and social outcomes. The first version of this plan was for the period 1997–2001 and it is updated annually.

Strategic Objectives The Melbourne Institute has ten strategic objectives for the period 1998–2002: 1.

to be the central focus of applied economic and social research on economic performance and social outcomes in Australia (umbrella objective);

2.

to be an Australian leader in economic and social modelling;

3.

to be the best known and most highly regarded supplier of economic and social indicators in Australia;

4.

to contribute strongly to economic policy analysis, discussion and development in Australia;

5.

to be a centre of postgraduate training in applied economic and social research;

6.

to achieve outstanding academic standards for its research output, and to be a leader in Australia and the Asia-Pacific region in its specified research programs;

7.

to be widely regarded as one of the outstanding sources of applied economic and social research available under contract to business and government;

8.

to produce a range of high quality publications (eg. books, journals, bulletins, newsletters, working papers);

9.

to provide information, commentaries and advice to business and government clients; and

10. to expand the Melbourne Institute’s research activities into other countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

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DIRECTOR’S REPORT Introduction: Hard Heads, Soft Hearts In 1998 we refined our strategic plan, which now has the title of ‘Hard Heads, Soft Hearts’. Our vision is to help the world to see economic and social issues more clearly and to foster a hard-headed but soft-hearted approach to economic and social modelling, indicators and policy analysis.

The famous nineteenth century economist Alfred Marshall was the first to coin the phrase ‘hard heads, soft hearts’ to describe the way he thought about economics. He was making the point that it is very important to be hard-headed in the analysis, but to have soft-hearted objectives. The purpose of economic analysis was to assist our understanding of the determinants of social outcomes such as unemployment and poverty, and to discover how to promote social well-being.

In more recent times, US economist Alan Blinder used the same phrase as the Professor Peter Dawkins title of a book about economic policy in which he argued the case for ‘tough DIRECTOR AND RONALD HENDERSON PROFESSOR minded economics for a just society’. In other words, economic policy should be hard-headed (that is, rational and efficient) and soft-hearted (that is, socially compassionate).

This idea has been taken on board in shaping our research agenda at the Melbourne Institute, where we strive to undertake rigorous economic analysis which can help to shed light on the determinants of social outcomes. The unifying theme is the link between economic performance and social outcomes.

Our Five Research Programs We now have five research programs: • Business Cycles, Forecasting and Economic Indicators • Innovation, Productivity and Enterprise Performance • Labour Markets and Human Resources • Fiscal Studies • Social Surveys and Indicators In these five areas we aim to build highly skilled and focused research teams to conduct nationally and internationally recognised, independent and impartial research on economic and social modelling, indicators and policy analysis. We seek to contribute strongly to public policy analysis and discussion also.

In 1998 we were very active in each of the five program areas. Some highlights were noted at the beginning of this annual report and more details are provided in the following.

Staffing In the course of the year, a number of new staff joined the Melbourne Institute. These include two new Research Fellows, Dr Hyeon-seung Huh and Dr Rebecca Valenzuela, and a new Research Officer, Mr Simon Feeny. Dr Huh and Dr Valenzuela

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hold PhDs from the University of New South Wales and the University of New England respectively, and Mr Feeny holds a Masters degree from the University of Reading. Ms Kate Ringvall also joined the staff towards the end of the year as an Administrative Assistant.

Advisory Board in 1998 I would like to thank Dr Peter Jonson and the Advisory Board for their important contribution. New members in 1998 were Ms Stella Axarlis (Managing Director of Bilcon Engineering), Mr Bill Evans (General Manager, Economics, Westpac Banking Corporation), Mr Ian Little (Secretary of the Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance) and Dr David Rosalky (Secretary of the Department of Family and Community Services). Mr Gary Banks (Chairman of the Productivity Commission) joins the Board in 1999.

The Board plays a crucial role for the Melbourne Institute in providing high level advice and contact with the world of government, business and community groups. A subcommittee, chaired by Mr Phil Ruthven, assisted in the refining of the strategic plan, and the full Board’s three meetings in 1998 produced very helpful ideas and support.

A special mention again for Mr Tony Cole who, in addition to serving on the Board, chairs the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum and has also taken on the role of co-chairing the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra.

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STAFF, ASSOCIATES AND RESEARCH STUDENTS Staff in 1998 Director and Ronald Henderson Professor Professor Peter Dawkins BSc Lough, MSc (Eco) Lond, PhD Lough Deputy Director and Principal Research Fellow Associate Professor David Johnson DipAgrEc NE, BAgrSc, MCom, PhD Melb Assistant Director and Senior Research Fellow Mr Don Harding BEc, MEc ANU Truby Williams Professor of Economics Professor John Creedy BSc (Ec) Brist, BPhil (Eco) Oxf Professorial Associates Dr Ernst Boehm AUA MEc Adel, DPhil Oxf, MCom Melb Dr Jonathan Kelley BA Camb, MA, PhD Calif Professor Adrian Pagan BEc Qld, PhD ANU Research Fellows Mr Malcolm Anderson BA ANU Ms Sally Cowling BEc Newcastle Dr Mark Harris BA Econ Suss, GDipEc, PhD Monash Mr Michael Harris BEc ANU Mr Hyeon-seung Huh BEc Yonsei, GDip Ec, MEc Syd, PhD UNE Ms Nellie Lentini BA Monash Mr Woei Tian Liew BSc, MSc LaT, Dip Com Melb Ms Joanne Loundes BEc Murdoch Dr Mark Rogers BSc Eco Lond, MSc Eco Warw, PhD ANU Dr Peter Summers BA (Communic), MA (Urb & Reg Plan), MS (Math), PhD (Econ) Iowa Dr Rebecca Valenzuela BSc (Stat) Diliman, GDip (Econ), MEc, PhD UNE Dr Elizabeth Webster BEc, MEc Monash, PhD Camb Research Officers Mr Simon Feeny BA (Ec) Portsmouth, MSc (Ec Dev) Reading Mrs Glenys Harding BEc ANU Mr Ben Jensen BCom Melb Ms Rosanna Scutella BCom Melb Finance and Information Systems Manager Mr Jean-Luc Garlick BSc, Dip Hum, Dip Eco Com LaT Senior Administrative Officer Ms Karen Roe BA, MA LaT, PGDACS Melb

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Administrative Assistants Ms Rachel Derham BSc Melb Ms Rosy Qin Ms Kate Ringvall BA (Asia) Murdoch Postgraduate Students Mr Malcolm Anderson BA ANU Ms Sally Cowling BEc Newcastle Mr Patrick Foley BSW Melb, MA VUT Mr Stuart Kells BCom Melb Ms Joanne Loundes BEc Murdoch

New Staff in 1999 Dr Mariah Evans BA (Soc) Reed, MA (Soc) Illinois, PhD (Soc) Chicago Ms Yi-Ping Tseng BEc Taiwan

Promotions to Senior Research Fellow In 1999 the following staff have been promoted to Senior Research Fellow: Dr Mark Rogers, Coordinator, Innovation, Productivity and Enterprise Performance Dr Peter Summers, Deputy Director, Westpac – Melbourne Institute Centre for Business Cycle Analysis Dr Elizabeth Webster, Coordinator, Labour Markets Research Program

Dr Mark Rogers

Dr Peter Summers

Dr Elizabeth Webster

Research Fellows in 1999

Mr Woei Tian Liew

Dr Mark Harris

Mr Michael Harris

Dr Hyeon-seung Huh

Ms Nellie Lentini

Ms Joanne Loundes

Ms Rosanna Scutella

Ms Yi-Ping Tseng

Dr Rebecca Valenzuela

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ADVISORY BOARD Advisory Board in 1998 Chairperson Dr Peter Jonson, Managing Director, ANZ Funds Management Members Ms Stella Axarlis, Managing Director, Bilcon Engineering Bishop Michael Challen, Executive Director, Brotherhood of St Laurence Mr Tony Cole, Principal – National Practice Leader, Investment Consulting, William M. Mercer Mr Michael Costa, Secretary, Labour Council of NSW Professor Peter Dawkins, Director and Ronald Henderson Professor, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Dr Peter Jonson Melbourne CHAIRPERSON, ADVISORY BOARD Mr Bill Evans, General Manager Economics, Economic Research, Westpac Banking Corporation Professor John Freebairn, Head, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Mr Don Harding, Assistant Director, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne Associate Professor David Johnson, Deputy Director, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne Mr Ian Little, Secretary, Department of Treasury and Finance Victoria Professor Peter Lloyd, Ritchie Professor of Economics & Director, Asian Economics Centre, The University of Melbourne Dr David Rosalky, Department Secretary, National Administration, Department of Family and Community Services Mr Phil Ruthven, Executive Chairman, IBIS Business Information Professor Boris Schedvin, Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Academic Management), The University of Melbourne Mr Glenn Stevens, Assistant Governor (Economic), Reserve Bank of Australia Professor Ross Williams, Dean, Faculty of Economics and Commerce, The University of Melbourne Board Secretary Ms Karen Roe, Senior Administrative Officer, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne

Professor Peter Dawkins DIRECTOR

New Members in 1999 Mr Gary Banks, Chairman, Productivity Commission Mr Wayne Jackson, Deputy Secretary, Family and Strategic Policy, Department of Family and Community Services, will be sitting on the Board in place of Dr David Rosalky, who is unable to attend the 1999 meetings due to other commitments.

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Mr Gary Banks and Bishop Michael Challen

Ms Stella Axarlis

Mr Michael Costa

Professor John Freebairn and Mr Phil Ruthven

Mr Ian Little

Professor Peter Lloyd

Professor Boris Schedvin

Mr Glenn Stevens

The Advisory Board in progress

Mr Bill Evans and Mr Wayne Jackson

Dr David Rosalky

Mr Tony Cole and Mr Don Harding

Professor Ross Williams and Associate Professor David Johnson

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RESEARCH PROGRAMS Business Cycles, Forecasting and Economic Indicators This research program is conducted within the Westpac – Melbourne Institute Centre for Business Cycle Analysis, under the leadership of Don Harding. It was another very active year. The Centre continued to produce closely watched economic indicators. These include the Westpac – Melbourne Institute Leading and Coincident Indexes of Economic Activity, the Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, as well as the Survey of Inflationary Expectations (sponsored by the Reserve Bank) and the Savings Report.

In addition Peter Summers produced economic forecasts from the Melbourne Institute’s econometric forecasting model. Most economic forecasters in Australia were very gloomy in 1998, but the Melbourne Institute’s forecasts were by comparison very optimistic and turned out to be much closer to the mark.

The Centre’s research program on business cycles proceeded with support from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and with the involvement of our Professorial Associate, Adrian Pagan of the ANU. Adrian Pagan and Don Harding were invited to present a paper called ‘Knowing the Cycle’ at a conference held in Bergamo, Italy, on combining theory and evidence in macroeconomics. A Business Cycle Seminar Series was launched also.

Don Harding continued to assist the PECC technical working groups. He was the keynote speaker at the ADBI-PECC workshop on economic monitoring of financial systems in East and South East Asia which was held in Manila in June 1998.

Mr Don Harding

Dr Peter Summers

Professor Adrian Pagan

Innovation, Productivity and Enterprise Performance This was the first year of a major three-year ARC ‘SPIRT’ grant (strategic partnerships with industry in research and training) on ‘the Performance of Australian Enterprises’. The partner organisations were IBIS, the Productivity Commission, the Victorian Department of State Development, the Australian Taxation Office and the Office of Small Business. Good progress was made and several working papers were produced analysing innovation, productivity and profitability of large, medium and small enterprises in Australia.

Dr Mark Rogers Another new venture was the launching of the Innovation Scoreboard which ranks large Australian enterprises on their innovativeness. Some of the output of this scoreboard was featured in the Business Review Weekly, sponsored by the IR&D Board. Another substantial project on the profit and tax performance of large Australian enterprises began with sponsorship from the Australian Taxation Office.

Labour Markets and Human Resources Several projects were undertaken in this research program. Unemployment continued to be a major focus. This year Professors Peter Dawkins and John Freebairn drew on their research on this issue to contribute strongly to the policy

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debate. They were two of the five economists who wrote a letter to the Prime Minister with some suggestions about how to substantially reduce the unemployment rate. The letter was subsequently published in the Australian. (The full text of the letter is reprinted on page 15 of this annual report.) John Freebairn headed up the Melbourne Institute’s Full Employment Project also.

Beth Webster was responsible for a number of projects on labour market issues and Don Harding made contributions in this area also. Topics of papers included occupational labour markets, the job network, recruitment in labour markets, the effect of labour market programs, as well as the causes of unemployment-associated policy implications.

Fiscal Studies

Dr Elizabeth Webster

1998 was the second year of a major ARC ‘SPIRT’ grant project on ‘Tax Reform: Efficiency and Equity’, in association with the Brotherhood of St Laurence and CEDA. The project was led by Associate Professor David Johnson, Professors John Freebairn and John Creedy. Two major reports and many working papers were released. This was a year of extensive debate about tax reform. It was the major issue in the federal election in September, and the research findings of this project had significant input to the debate.

Two major research contracts began with the Department of Family and Community Services, and both connected with the labour market effects of tax and social security arrangements. Under one of these contracts, the Melbourne Institute is developing the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS), a behavioural microsimulation model of the Australian tax and social security system. Dr Alan Duncan from the UK’s University of York and the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) is a leading exponent of such modelling.

Associate Professor David Johnson

Professor John Creedy

Professor John Freebairn

Social Surveys and Indicators In association with Professorial Associate Jonathan Kelley (of the ANU) and Dr Mariah Evans who is joining the Melbourne Institute staff in 1999, we have taken responsibility for the International Social Science Survey, Australia, and associated household survey research. This is a very exciting development for the Melbourne Institute, because it extends our research agenda at the interface of economics and sociology, which is very much in keeping with our strategic plan.

As part of this process we launched the Australian Social Monitor in 1998. The journal aims to monitor and analyse important social trends and attitudes, using data from the household survey research undertaken in association with Drs Kelley and Evans. Topics covered in the 1998 issues included job security, fear of crime, immigration, superannuation, national pride, food and the GST, rewards to education, and gambling.

Dr Jonathan Kelley

Dr Mariah Evans

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CONTRIBUTIONS TO POLICY ANALYSIS AND DEBATES One of the Melbourne Institute’s strategic objectives is to contribute strongly to economic policy analysis, discussion and development on Australia. Examples in 1998 included: • a large research project on tax reform, producing two major reports (in association with CEDA and the Brotherhood of St Laurence); • frequent presentations at conferences, seminars and in the media as part of the tax reform debate, as well as many relevant papers and articles by David Johnson, John Freebairn, John Creedy and the Melbourne Institute’s Director, Peter Dawkins; • a conference on tax reform (see page 18); • an assessment of the Government’s and Opposition’s tax policies prior to the federal election, that was released at the conference on tax reform; • continuing strong contributions to public discussion about the course of the Australian economy and associated macroeconomic policy issues (see, for example, the article in the Australian Financial Review, 1 December 1998,

by Don Harding and Peter Summers); • several opinion page articles to the Australian Financial Review, the Age and the Australian on important policy issues (see page 31), by staff of the Melbourne Institute; • contributions to many public forums on issues associated with labour market policy and unemployment by Peter Dawkins (see page 29 for a list). This included, for example, a paper and presentation at an important conference on unemployment, organised by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the ANU; • published papers on the Job Network by Don Harding and Beth Webster—Harding’s analysis of some of the problems with the Job Network contributed significantly to the policy debate; • regular policy forums published in the Australian Economic Review that included discussion of ‘Fiscal Policy in Australia and Southeast Asia’, ‘Funding of Higher Education in Australia’, ‘The Interaction of Tax and Social Security’, and ‘Economic and Social Policy in Australia: Is There a Third Way?’; • a seminar based upon the Third Way forum, with presentations from Mark Latham MP, former senior public servant Mr Fred Argy, Dr Deborah Mitchell of the ANU, Dr Mike Nahan of the IPA, and Professor Peter Dawkins. Dr Clive Hamilton of the Australia Institute also contributed to the published forum; • a letter to the Prime Minister, with proposals for reducing the unemployment rate in Australia, by Professor Peter Dawkins and his colleague Professor John Freebairn, of the University’s Department of Economics, as two of the ‘Five Economists’ (along with Professor Ross Garnaut, Dr Michael Keating and Mr Chris Richardson). The letter is reproduced below.

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From left: Mr Chris Richardson, Professor Ross Garnaut, Professor Peter Dawkins, Professor John Freebairn and Dr Michael Keating THE ‘FIVE ECONOMISTS’

21 October 1998 Hon John Howard MP Prime Minister Dear Prime Minister This letter offers some ideas for policies that could complement your tax reform package, to help in substantially reducing unemployment over the next few years. We believe that the continued steadiness of fiscal and monetary policy of recent times and the continuation of microeconomic reform, of which tax reform forms part, are both important elements in a set of policies to reduce unemployment. Our specific additional proposal is to link industrial relations reform with reform of the tax and welfare system. This would complement your present policies and significantly enhance the chances of achieving large reductions in unemployment.

The growth in jobs necessary to substantially reduce unemployment will require higher economic growth and lower growth in wage costs. Tax reform will lead to a more robust economy and improve the chances of realising higher economic growth. Evidence suggests, however, that enhanced economic growth alone will not be sufficient to reduce unemployment much below 7 per cent in the long-run. Economic growth will need to be complemented by policies directed at improving the relationship between growth and unemployment, involving a linking of your industrial relations and tax and welfare reforms. The linkage would include an attempt to achieve a lower growth in real labour costs, alongside an integrated approach to reforming the social security system and labour market programs. The proposed reforms to family payments in your tax package are a solid start in the area of social security reform.

Recent research at the Reserve Bank of Australia, by Debelle and Vickery, suggests that a two per cent fall in the growth of real wages, for one year, could lead to a permanent reduction of unemployment of about one percentage point. Lower growth in wage costs leads directly to a higher demand for labour. It also results in lower inflationary pressure and enables the Reserve Bank to conduct a more expansionary monetary policy.

In the mid-1980s wage restraint made a big dent in unemployment. The more decentralised and deregulated wage setting system now, however, requires a different approach from that adopted under the Accord. We suggest that the Commonwealth Government should mount an argument in the Industrial Relations Commission for the replacement of Living Wage adjustments, at least for the time being, with compensation for those on low wages in low income families by providing tax credits to boost their incomes. This would be both more equitable and better for labour market efficiency than the established approach of relying on award wage interventions to secure equity. Unlike the Accord, there would be no expectation that unions or employees would be restrained from negotiating over-award increases.

While the number of employees who depend on award variations for wage increases has decreased substantially, it is still around 30 to 40 per cent, and many enterprise agreements are also affected by awards. If the “award wages safety net” were frozen for four years, this would reduce the growth in real award wages by about 10 to 12 per cent, due to inflation. Allowing for the coverage of awards and for the possibility of over-award increases, this should reduce the average growth in real wages by about 3 to 4 per cent. Based on Debelle and Vickery’s estimates, this should reduce the level of unemployment by 1.5 to 2 percentage points below the level that would otherwise be attainable, to about 5 to 5.5 per cent.

Earnings would be suppressed more for low skilled than for high skilled workers. It is likely that lower growth in wages for the low skilled will be more helpful than lower growth in wages of the high skilled, as the unemployed are disproportionately low skilled.

Why would this approach also be better for equity? First there is the reduction of unemployment. Second, the use of the tax–transfer system to improve the income for low income families which include wage earners, would be better than Living Wage adjustments. Recent research by Sue Richardson and Ann Harding has highlighted how those people receiving low wage rates are well spread throughout the distribution of family incomes. This makes Living Wage adjustments a very blunt equity device. Indeed, the proposed tax credits would be more valuable to many such low income families than “Living Wage adjustments”. For many low wage earners in low income families, especially those with children, an increase in their wage has little effect on their net income after the effect on tax and social security entitlements. This proposal would improve the position of low income families on low wages, in the spirit of the famous Harvester decision. This should prove to be a powerful argument in the Industrial Relations Commission.

Recent research at the OECD shows that no single policy can be expected to solve the unemployment problem. A range of policies will be required, acting on both the demand for and the supply of labour. As well as tax reform and the award rates freeze, this should include the upgrading of the education and training systems and a systematic approach to labour market programs. Instruments such as re-employment bonuses as well as the tax credits would increase the incentive for people to move from welfare to work. The tax credits should form part of a rationalisation of our complicated tax and social security system and a move towards a negative income tax system. Michael Keating has recently shown how such tax credits and your proposed rationalisation of family payments could be consolidated to achieve even lower effective marginal tax rates.

The government will need to commit funds to the “welfare to work” policies including tax credits and labour market programs. We believe, however that the costs would be quite modest, especially if compared with the medium to long-run benefits. In the long-run, the result of reaching around 5 to 5.5 per cent unemployment would mean substantial savings in unemployment benefits. There would be an added tax revenue dividend from these policies helping to maintain solid ongoing economic growth, and very importantly an equity dividend from the lower unemployment and enhanced assistance to low income families.

We hope that you find these suggestions helpful and would be very pleased to meet with you or any members of your government to discuss the proposals in more detail.

Yours sincerely Peter Dawkins, Professor and Director, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne John Freebairn, Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Ross Garnaut, Professor of Economics and Director, Asia Pacific School for Economics and Management, Australian National University Michael Keating, Visiting Fellow, Economics Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University Chris Richardson, Director, Access Economics

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MELBOURNE INSTITUTE BUSINESS ECONOMICS FORUM In 1998 the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum continued to generate considerable interest. The number of members grew and the four quarterly briefings attracted considerable interest.

Briefings were held on 24 March, 18 June, 22 September and 1 December at the Hotel Sofitel, Melbourne. At each briefing the Melbourne Institute’s forecasts were presented and discussed, and a number of special topics were also canvassed such as the innovativeness of Australian enterprises From left: Mr Don Harding, Mr Tony Cole, Professor Peter Dawkins, Dr Peter Summers and the efficiency and equity effects of tax PANEL DISCUSSING MELBOURNE INSTITUTE ECONOMIC FORECASTS AT INAUGURAL QUARTERLY BRIEFING reform.

As well as Melbourne Institute researchers, a number of external commentators were involved in the briefings. These included, for example, Bill Evans (Westpac), Saul Eslake (ANZ), Alan Oster (National Australia Bank), Peter Brain (NIEIR) and Vince Fitzgerald (Allen Consulting).

Members Gold and Full ANZ Banking Group Australia Post Australian Taxation Office BHP Co Business Council of Australia City of Melbourne Department of Industry, Science and Resources Department of Premier and Cabinet (new in 1998) Department of Treasury and Finance Faculty of Economics and Commerce, The University of Melbourne General Motors – Holdens Automotive Reserve Bank of Australia Urban Land Corporation Westpac Banking Corporation William M. Mercer Associate Brotherhood of St Laurence CEDA Coles Myer (new in 1998) Department of Family and Community Services Department of State Development

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IBIS Business Information Institute for Private Enterprise (new in 1998) Institute of Public Affairs PricewaterhouseCoopers (new in 1998) Productivity Commission Shell Australia Western Australian Business Economics Forum (joint venture with IRIC, Curtin University of Technology) Department of Resources Development Lotteries Western Australia Wesfarmers CSBP Western Power Corporation

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CONFERENCES Two major conferences were held in 1998, one on the Asian Crisis and one on Tax Reform.

The Asian Crisis: Economic Analysis and Market Intelligence, 8 May 1998 This was a conference organised jointly with the Faculty of Economics which provided some sponsorship as part of its strategic initiative to foster international collaboration in the Asia-Pacific region.

The conference explored the origins of the Asian Crisis, the experiences of a range of Asian economies such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, the effect on the Australian economy, and investment opportunities in the region.

The Vice-President of the World Bank for the East Asian and Pacific region, Mr Jean-Michel Severino, addressed the conference by video-link at the start of the Mr Jean-Michel Severino, Vice-President of the World Bank, addressing day, and Australia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, The the Asian Crisis conference via video-link from Washington DC Hon. Alexander Downer, addressed the Conference lunch. Speakers from overseas included Dr Mari Pangestu (Indonesia), Dr Mohd Piei (Malaysia), Dr Chalongphob Sussangkarn (Thailand) and Mr Bill Thomson (Philippines). Speakers from Australia included Mr Saul Eslake (ANZ), Mr Bill Evans (Westpac), Mr Chris Caton (BT Australia), Mr Phil Ruthven (IBIS), as well as several experts from the University of Melbourne including Associate Professor Malcolm Dowling (who was co-organiser with Professor Peter Dawkins), Dr Kim Sawyer and the Melbourne Institute’s Dr Peter Summers.

192 people attended and the proceedings were published as a special issue of the Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends.

Getting to Grips with the Tax Reform Debate, 1 September 1998 This conference occurred soon after the announcement of the Coalition Government’s and the Opposition’s respective Tax Reform proposals, and about one month before the federal election at which tax reform was the central issue.

The Melbourne Institute had been undertaking a major research program on the efficiency and equity effects of tax reform and contributing strongly to the tax reform debate. The conference was a significant event in showcasing some of that research by Associate Professor David Johnson and Professor John Freebairn.

At the conference, the Melbourne Institute released an assessment of the Government and Opposition’s Tax Reform proposals and concluded that both the Coalition

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From left: Mr Mark Paterson, Professor John Freebairn, Professor Peter Dawkins, Associate Professor David Johnson and Dr Vince Fitzgerald SPEAKERS AT THE CONFERENCE ON TAX REFORM

and Labor Parties’ tax packages could be improved by taking on board aspects of the other side’s package, but found the Coalition’s package more compelling because of the efficiency benefits of the GST. Topics at the conference included reform of indirect tax, direct tax, federal–state financial relations (where Dr Vince Fitzgerald of Allen Consulting was the lead speaker and Associate Professor David Collins of Macquarie University was the discussant), and the interface of the tax and social security system (with presentations by Ms Gillian Beer of NATSEM, Professor Peter Dawkins of the Melbourne Institute and Dr Michael Keating of the ANU).

Representatives of business and community groups also played major roles in the conference. These included Mr Mark Paterson (ACCI), Mr Michael Raper (ACOSS), Ms Alison McClelland (Brotherhood of St Laurence), Mr Peter Burn (Business Council of Australia), and Mr Peter McDonald (Australian Taxpayers Association). Dr Neville Norman (University of Melbourne) addressed the Conference lunch.

129 people attended. Several of the papers were subsequently published in the Australian Economic Review and the Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends.

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PUBLICATIONS BY SUBSCRIPTION Melbourne Institute Economic and Social Journals Australian Economic Review Articles and Submissions The format of the Australian Economic Review continued with the style developed over recent years. The ‘Contributed Articles’ section continued to attract a strong rate of submission. ‘Policy Forums’ were published in all four issues in 1998, and included ‘Fiscal Policy in Australia and Southeast Asia’, ‘Funding of Higher Education in Australia’, ‘The Interaction of Tax and Social Security’, and ‘Economic and Social Policy in Australia: The Australian Economic Review Is There a Third Way?’. Each issue contained ‘For the Student’: ‘Measuring Poverty: An Introduction’, ‘Microeconomic Evaluations of Australian Labour Market Programs’, ‘An Economic and Policy Analysis of Australian Export Concession Schemes’, and ‘Immigration and the Australian Macroeconomy: Perspective and Prospective’. Two issues included a ‘Data Survey’ article: ‘The ABS Survey of Employment and Unemployment Patterns’ and ‘Web-Based Resources for the Macroeconomist’.

In 1998 the Review published 41 articles, down from 1997 when 44 articles were published, but an increase from 1996 when 39 articles were published. The size of the Review remained much the same with a total of 444 pages. In Table 1, we show the distribution of articles by type for the past four years.

In 1998 we received 38 submissions in the ‘Contributed Articles’ section, considerably less than the previous year’s 58 submissions. Table 2 shows the number of submissions for the past four years. The acceptance rate for papers which have been published has been 36 per cent over the past four years (papers published as a percentage of submissions).

Table 1: Published Articles in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 Type of Article

1995

1996

1997

1998

Invited Articles Contributed Articles Policy Forum Data Surveys For the Student Pages

0 22 13 6 4 572

2 13 15 5 4 472

0 18 19 3 4 466

0 16 19 2 4 444

Table 2: Submissions in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 Papers Brought forward from previous year Submissions during year

Decisions made Accepted: Published Accepted: In queue Rejected/withdrawn Resubmit In process

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1995

1996

1997

1998

26 55

22 36

20 58

15 38

81

58

78

53

22 4 37 12 6

13 3 22 16 4

17 4 30 15 12

16 3 8 11 15

81

58

78

53

Australian Social Monitor The Australian Social Monitor was launched in September of 1998 with support from the International Social Science Surveys/Australia and ANUTECH at the Australian National University. The Australian Social Monitor aims to monitor and analyse important social trends and attitudes. Six issues will be published per annum.

Australian Social Monitor, Number 1: September 1998 Australian Social Monitor, Number 2: December 1998

Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends

Australian Social Monitor

The Quarterly Bulletin is sponsored by William M. Mercer and provides an authoritative analysis of international, national and state economic environments, with a particular focus on the state economies and on reading the business cycle. In addition, each issue covers a special topic considered to be of particular interest. The topics covered in 1998 included employment, innovation in large Australian enterprises, tax reform and the Job Network.

Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, nos 1–4.98.

Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Victorian Supplement, nos 1–4.98.

Melbourne Institute Economic and Social Indicators

Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends

Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity Published monthly, the Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity examines movements in leading, coincident and lagging indicators of economic activity in Australia, together with comparative data from overseas. It also includes a quarterly leading index of inflation. Indices of economic activity are designed to enhance the decision making process of financial and business managers by anticipating and identifying turning points in the economy. Each index blends several variables which reflect different aspects of the economy. Their combination is intended to give a more representative picture than any one indicator alone.

Westpac – Melbourne Institute State Indexes of Economic Activity Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity

In 1996, the Melbourne Institute introduced the state-based leading and coincident indexes, so that subscribers might keep track of the economic situation locally as well as nationwide.

Monthly reports were produced for each of the Australian states in 1998. These indexes are in the process of being upgraded in 1999 and will be reintroduced shortly.

Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment The Consumer Sentiment Index is the average of five responses on consumers’ evaluation of their household financial situation over the past year, the coming year and the next five years, anticipations of economic conditions over the coming

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year and the next five years, and a view on buying conditions for major household items. Assessments of future unemployment are recorded also. Each quarter, consumers are surveyed about their views on buying conditions for cars and dwellings, the wisest place to invest savings, and economic news recall. This report is produced monthly.

Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment (NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia) Each quarter we present similar consumer sentiment data as in the Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment (except news recall data), but relating specifically to consumer sentiment in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations The Melbourne Institute Consumer Inflationary Expectations measures were designed to represent the average householder’s expected rate of consumer price rises over the coming twelve months. The survey is a direct measure of inflationary expectations as consumers are surveyed on whether and by how much they believe prices will go up or down.

The report is produced monthly.

Melbourne Institute Savings Report The Household Savings Report contains data on householders’ current savings behaviour, reasons for saving, current household asset and debt structure and their assessment of the best ways to hold assets. The report is produced quarterly.

Melbourne Institute Wages Report The Wages Survey records employees’ (self-reported) wage changes over the previous twelve-month period. This survey is designed to capture the growth in wage rates. The report is produced quarterly.

Poverty Lines: Australia Poverty Lines: Australia is a quarterly newsletter that updates the Henderson Poverty Line as defined in the 1973 Commonwealth Commission of Inquiry into Poverty. The Poverty Lines are standard reference material for those concerned with social welfare policy in Australia. The income levels of various sized families are used to ascertain when and where an impoverished situation occurs.

Other Melbourne Institute Publications Tax Reform: Equity and Efficiency Series In 1998 two reports were produced in the research project on Equity and Efficiency in Taxation Reform. The first report, ‘A Stocktake of Taxation in Australia’, was released in August 1997. The second report, ‘Indirect Taxes: Evaluation and Options for Reform’, was released in March 1998. The reports informed public discussion by comparing the current tax system with several alternatives.

In July 1998 ‘Evaluation of Tax Reform with Producer and Consumer Responses’, the third report in the series, was released. This report estimated the consequences of producer and consumer responses to tax reform and examined the long-term effects of replacing a range on indirect taxes with a GST on different variables such as growth.

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In 1999 ‘Evaluation of the Government’s Tax Package’, the fourth and final report in the series, was released. It identified losers from reform and suggested ways of providing compensation.

Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series 1998 The working papers were indicative of current research projects being undertaken by the various research programs of the Melbourne Institute. The working papers produced in 1998 were: 1/98 Stromback, T., Dockery, M. and Ying, W. ‘Transitions in the Labour Market: Evidence from the Survey of Employment and Unemployment Patterns’.

2/98 Bosworth, D. and Rogers, M. ‘Research and Development, Intangible Assets and the Performance of Large Australian Companies’.

3/98 Bosworth, D. and Kells, S. ‘Measuring the Performance of Large Australian Firms’.

4/98 Webster, E. ‘Labour as an Asset: Can it Partition the Labour Market?’.

5/98 Harris, M. N. and Matyas, L. ‘The Econometrics of Gravity Models’.

6/98 Creedy, J. ‘The Welfare Effects of Indirect Taxes in Australia’.

7/98 Drummond Gow, I. and Kells, S. ‘The Theory and Measurement of Profitability’.

8/98 Harris, M. N. and Matyas, L. ‘Performance of the Operational Wansbeek-Bekker Estimator for Dynamic Panel Data Models’.

9/98 Rogers, M. ‘The Definition and Measurement of Productivity’.

10/98 Rogers, M. ‘The Definition and Measurement of Innovation’.

11/98 Rogers, M. ‘Management, Organisational and Technological Change in Australian Workplaces: Evidence from the AWIRS Data Sets’.

12/98 Creedy, J. ‘Indirect Tax Reform in Australia: The Welfare Effects on Different Demographic Groups’.

13/98 Freebairn, J. and Valenzuela, R. ‘A Progressive Direct Expenditure Tax’.

14/98 Stromback, T., Dockery, M. and Ying, W. ‘Labour Market Programs and Labour Market Outcomes’.

15/98 Cowling, S. ‘Understanding Behavioural Responses to Tax and Transfer Changes: A Survey of Low-Income Households’.

16/98 Freebairn, J. ‘Incentive and Distributional Effects of a Tax Mix Change: Some Simple Analytics’.

17/98 Creedy, J. ‘Non-Uniform Indirect Taxation, Horizontal Inequity and Re-ranking’.

18/98 Creedy, J. ‘Differential Consumption Taxes and Equity: The Limits to Redistribution’.

19/98 Rogers, M. ‘Innovation in Australian Enterprises: Evidence from the GAPS and IBIS Databases’.

20/98 Rogers, M. ‘Productivity in Australian Enterprises: Evidence from the ABS Growth and Performance Survey’.

21/98 Feeny, S. and Rogers, M. ‘Profitability in Australian Enterprises’.

22/98 Loundes, J. ‘Performance of Australian Government Trading Enterprises: An Overview’.

23/98 Brailsford, T. J. and Knights, S. ‘The Financial and Non-Financial Effects of Corporate Takeovers’.

24/98 Scutella, R. and Johnson, D. ‘The Melbourne Institute General Equilibrium Tax Model’.

25/98 Anderson, M. ‘Neoclassical Economics and the Australian Community: How Does the Public Arrange Economic Knowledge?’.

26/98 Boehm, E. A. ‘A Review of Some Methodological Issues in Identifying and Analysing Business Cycles’.

Ronald Frank Henderson 1917–1994: A Tribute Professor Ronald Frank Henderson was the foundation Director of the Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, and served in the post from 1962 to 1979. This tribute helped to highlight the life and valued contribution of Ronald Henderson. He contributed greatly to impressing on the Australian community the importance of measuring and trying to reduce poverty. This tribute was written by Jean and Davis McCaughey.

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The Innovation Scoreboard: An Analysis of the Innovative Activities of Large Australian Enterprises This report contained information on the innovativeness of the largest companies in Australia. Information was provided on the level and intensity of R&D expenditure, as well as the number and intensity of applications for patents, trade marks and designs. Rankings of firms by both absolute amount and intensity were provided. The information in this report was complied by using data from IBIS Information, AusIndustry and IP Australia.

The Innovation Scoreboard

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STAFF PUBLICATIONS, SEMINARS AND MEDIA COVERAGE Publications, 1998 Books, Monographs and Published Research Reports Anderson, M., Scutella, R., Harding, G. and Liew, W. T. (1998). Life After Graduation: Our 1996 Graduates in 1997.

Melbourne: The University of Melbourne, 109pp.

Creedy, J. (1998). Development of the Theory of Exchange. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, xv+205pp.

Creedy, J. (1998). The Dynamics of Inequality and Poverty: Comparing Income Distributions. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, xviii+303pp.

Creedy, J. (1998). The History of Economic Analysis: Selected Essays. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, viii+348pp.

Creedy, J. (1998). Measuring Welfare Changes and Tax Burdens. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, xiv+221pp.

Creedy, J. (1998). Pensions and Population Ageing: An Economic Analysis. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, xviii+239pp.

Creedy, J. and Alvarado, J. (1998). Population Ageing, Migration and Social Expenditure. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, xii+191pp.

Johnson, D., Freebairn, J., Creedy, J., Scutella, R., Cowling, S. and Harding, G. (1998). Evaluation of Tax Reform with Producer and Consumer Responses. Tax Reform: Equity and Efficiency Report no. 3. Melbourne: The University of Melbourne, viii+57pp.

Johnson, D., Freebairn, J., Creedy, J., Scutella, R., Cowling, S. and Harding, G. (1998). Indirect Taxes: Evaluation of Options for Reform. Tax Reform: Equity and Efficiency Report no. 2. Melbourne: The University of Melbourne, viii+43pp.

Contributions to Books Creedy, J. (1998). ‘F. Y. Edgeworth’. In Handbook of Economic Methodology, Davis J. B., Hands D. W. and Maki U. eds, Aldershot: Edward Elgar, pp. 153–156.

Creedy, J. and Cornwell, A. (1998). ‘Measuring the welfare effects of price changes using the LES, with an application to a carbon tax’. In Income, Inequality, Poverty and Economic Welfare, Slottje D. J. and Raj B. eds, New York: PhysicaVerlag, pp. 125–149.

Johnson, D. (1998). ‘Non-cash income and non-income indicators or inequality and poverty’. In Measuring Progress: Is Life Getting Better?, Eckersley R. ed., Melbourne: CSIRO Publishing, pp. 255–266.

Johnson, D. and Dawkins, P. (1998). ‘Poverty and the life cycle’. In Poverty Then and Now, Nieuwenhuysen J. and Fincher R. eds, Melbourne: Melbourne University Press, pp. 127–143.

Conference Proceedings Dawkins, P. (1998). ‘Solutions to unemployment and avoiding the “diabolical trade-off”: A discussion’. In Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Debelle G. and Borland J. eds, Sydney: Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian National University, pp. 309–328.

Dawkins, P. and Rogers, M. (1998). ‘A general review of productivity analyses in Australia’. In Microeconomic Reform and Productivity Growth, Gretton P. ed., Canberra: AusInfo, pp. 195–228.

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Harris, M. N. (1998). ‘Hicksian income in open economies with exhaustible resources’. In 25th General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Blunt D. ed., Cambridge: Office of National Statistics.

Journal Articles Creedy, J. (1998). ‘Are consumption taxes regressive?’. Australian Economic Review, 31(2): 107–116.

Creedy, J. (1998). ‘The development of the theory of exchange’. History of Economics Review, 28: 1–45.

Creedy, J. (1998). ‘Income taxation and the accounting period: a simulation analysis’. Journal of Economic Studies, 25(6): 468–485.

Creedy, J. (1998). ‘Means-tested versus universal transfers: alternative models and value judgements’. Manchester School, 66(1): 100–117.

Creedy, J. (1998). ‘Measuring poverty: an introduction’. Australian Economic Review, 31(1): 82–89.

Creedy, J. (1998). ‘Measuring the welfare effects of price changes: a convenient parametric approach’. Australian Economic Papers, 37(2): 137–151.

Creedy, J. (1998). ‘The optimal linear income tax: utility or equivalent income?’. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 45(1): 99–110.

Creedy, J. (1998). ‘Social expenditure projections: a stochastic approach’. Australian Economic Papers, 37(3): 203– 212.

Creedy, J. (1998). ‘The welfare effect on different income groups of indirect tax changes and inflation in New Zealand’.

Economic Record, 74(227): 373–383.

Creedy, J. and Bakker, A. (1998). ‘Estimating the exponential family using grouped data: an application to the New Zealand income distribution’. New Zealand Economic Papers, 32(1): 19–39.

Creedy, J. and Borooah, V. (1998). ‘Income mobility, temporary and permanent poverty’. Australian Economic Papers, 37(1): 36–44.

Creedy, J. and Dixon, R. (1998). ‘The relative burden of monopoly on households with different incomes’. Economica, 65: 285–293.

Creedy, J., Johnson, D. and Baker, M. (1998). ‘Overseas students in Australia: costs and revenues’. Economic Analysis and Policy, 28(2): 187–197.

Creedy, J. and Martin, V. (1998). ‘Nonlinear modelling using the generalised exponential distribution’. Bulletin of Economic Research, 50(3): 229–255.

Creedy, J., van de Ven, J. and McKenzie, K. (1998). ‘The demand for water by single-metered and group-metered households’. Australian Economic Review, 31(3): 203–210.

Dawkins, P. (1998). ‘The economic effects of deregulation and decentralisation of wage determination’, Journal of Industrial Relations, 40(4): 643–662.

Dawkins, P. (1998). ‘Towards a hard-headed but soft-hearted approach to economic and social policy: comments on the books by Fred Argy and Mark Latham’. Australian Economic Review, 31(4): 422–429.

Dawkins, P., Beer, G., Harding, A., Johnson, D. and Scutella, R. (1998). ‘Towards a negative income tax system for Australia’. Australian Economic Review, 31(3): 237–257.

Dawkins, P. and Johnson, D. (1998). ‘The interaction of tax and social security: introduction and overview’. Australian Economic Review, 31(3): 258–262.

Dowling, M. and Dawkins, P. (1998). ‘Editorial’. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, S: 1–10.

Dowling, M. and Summers, P. (1998). ‘Total factor productivity and economic growth—issues for Asia’. Economic Record, 74(225): 170–185.

Evans, M. and Kelley, J. (1998). ‘Australian attitudes to immigrants—a 24 nation comparison’. Australian Social Monitor, 1: 11–14.

Evans, M. and Kelley, J. (1998). ‘Why is education rewarded—necessary skills or arbitrary credentialism?’. Australian Social Monitor, 2: 35–40.

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Fry, T. and Harris, M. (1998). ‘Testing for independence of irrelevant alternatives: some empirical results’. Sociological Methods and Research, 26(3): 401–423.

Griffiths, W. and Valenzuela, R. (1998). ‘Missing data from infrequency of purchase: Bayesian estimation of a linear expenditure system’. Advances in Econometrics, no. 13.

Harding, D. (1998). ‘What incentives does Job Network create?’. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, 4: 40–46.

Harding, D. and Summers, P., Huh, H. and Loundes, J. (1998). ‘Economic update’. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Victorian Supplement, 2–4: 1.

Harding, D. and Summers, P., Huh, H. and Loundes, J. (1998). ‘Editorial’. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Victorian Supplement, 1–4: iii.

Harding, D. and Summers, P., Huh, H. and Loundes, J. (1998). ‘Industry analysis’. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Victorian Supplement, 1: 8–24.

Harding, D. and Summers, P., Huh, H. and Loundes, J. (1998). ‘Introduction’. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Victorian Supplement, 1: 1.

Harding, D. and Summers, P., Huh, H. and Loundes, J. (1998). ‘Long run trends’. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Victorian Supplement, 1: 1–3.

Harding, D. and Summers, P., Huh, H. and Loundes, J. (1998). ‘Reading the Victorian business cycle’. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Victorian Supplement, 2–4: 2–6.

Harding, D. and Summers, P., Huh, H. and Loundes, J. (1998). ‘The Victorian economy’. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Victorian Supplement, 1: 3–7.

Harris, M. and Jensen, B. (1998). ‘Fear of crime and perceptions of safety’. Australian Social Monitor, 1: 8–10.

Johnson, D. (1998). ‘Higher education: some key issues’. Australian Economic Review, 31(2): 145–147.

Johnson, D. (1998). ‘Shedding the wowser image: gambling in Victoria’. Australian Social Monitor, 2: 41–45.

Johnson, D. (1998). ‘Should there be limits to the number of electronic gaming machines in Victoria?’. Econochat, 9: 16–19.

Johnson, D., Baker, M. and Creedy, J. (1998). ‘The cost and benefit of international students’. Economic Papers, 16(3): 44–54.

Johnson, D., Manning, I. and Hellwig, O. (1998). ‘Trends in the distribution of income in Australia’. Australian Journal of Labour Economics, 2(1): 1–28.

Johnson, D. and Scutella, R., Cowling, S. and Harding, G. (1998). ‘The government’s tax reform package—equity and efficiency effects of indirect tax reform’. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, 3: 72–89.

Kelley, J. and Evans, M. (1998). ‘Sources of national pride in 24 nations’. Australian Social Monitor, 2: 23–30.

Kelley, J., Evans, M. and Dawkins, P. (1998). ‘Job security in the 1990s: how much is job security worth to employees?’.

Australian Social Monitor, 1: 1–7.

Lee, M., Longmire, R. and Harris, M. N. (1998). ‘Growth convergence: some panel data evidence’. Applied Economics, 30: 907–912.

Rogers, M. (1998). ‘Innovation in large Australian enterprises’. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, 2: 50–60.

Savery, L., Mazzarol, T. and Dawkins, P. (1998). ‘The quality of British management: Asia-Pacific perceptions’. Journal of Management Development, 17(9): 600–628.

Summers, P. (1998). ‘The Asian crisis: Australia’s exports, and GDP growth’. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, S: 154–160.

Valenzuela, R. and Webster, E. (1998). ‘Superannuation: whose responsibility?’. Australian Social Monitor, 1: 15–16.

Webster, E. (1998). ‘Microeconomic evaluations of Australian labour market programs’. Australian Economic Review, 31(2): 189–201.

Webster, E. (1998). ‘Review of an encyclopedia of Keynesian economics’. Economic Record, 74: 197.

Webster, E. (1998). ‘Unemployment’. EconDate, 12(1): 5–7.

Webster, E. (1998). ‘Unemployment in Australia’. Econochat, 9: 20–22.

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Webster, E. (1998). ‘What is the job network?’. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, 4: 33–39.

Webster, E., Johnson, D. and Dawkins, P. (1998). ‘Taxing food and the GST’. Australian Social Monitor, 2: 31–34.

Wooden, M. and Harding, D. (1998). ‘Recruitment practices in the private sector: results from a national survey’. Asia Pacific Journal of Human Resources, 36(2): 73–87.

Working Papers, Indicator Reports and Unpublished Reports Anderson, M. (1998). ‘Neoclassical economics and the Australian community: how does the public analyse economic knowledge?’. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 25:50pp.

Boehm, E. (1998). ‘A review of some methodological issues in identifying and analysing business cycles’. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 26:64pp.

Bosworth, D. and Rogers, M. (1998). ‘Research and development, intangible assets and the performance of large Australian companies’. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 2:40pp.

Dawkins, P., Summers, P. and Loundes, J. (1998). ‘Melbourne–Asia links: report for the City of Melbourne’, Report for the City of Melbourne, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 99pp.

Feeny, S. and Rogers, M. (1998). ‘Profitability in Australian enterprises’. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 21:35pp.

Feeny, S. and Rogers, M. (1998). ‘The use of intellectual property by large Australian enterprises’. Melbourne, IP Australia, 109pp.

Freebairn, J. and Valenzuela, R. (1998). ‘A progressive direct expenditure tax’. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 13:28pp.

Harris, M. N. (1998). Melbourne Institute survey of consumer inflationary expectations: monthly report, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 2pp.

Harris, M. S., Fraser, I. and Read, M. (1998). ‘Natural resource accounting in Victoria: catchment level resource management and priority setting’. Report for the Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Melbourne, University of Melbourne, 41pp.

Huh, H. (1998). Westpac – Melbourne Institute indexes of economic activity, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 151–162:13pp.

Huh, H. (1998). Westpac – Melbourne Institute state indexes of economic activity: New South Wales, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 11–23:6pp.

Huh, H. (1998). Westpac – Melbourne Institute state indexes of economic activity: Queensland, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 11–23:6pp.

Huh, H. (1998). Westpac – Melbourne Institute state indexes of economic activity: South Australia, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 11–23:6pp.

Huh, H. (1998). Westpac – Melbourne Institute state indexes of economic activity: Tasmania, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 11–23:6pp.

Huh, H. (1998). Westpac – Melbourne Institute state indexes of economic activity: Victoria, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 11–23:6pp.

Huh, H. (1998). Westpac – Melbourne Institute state indexes of economic activity: Western Australia, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 1–23:5pp.

Johnson, D. (1998). Review of modelling. Melbourne, Productivity Commission, pp. 73–84.

Johnson, D. and Feeny, S. (1998). Compliance costs and Victorian small business: retail, services and manufacturing, Report for the Department of State Development, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 50pp.

Johnson, D. and Scutella, R. (1998). Long term effects of the government’s tax package, Report for the Business Council of Australia, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 18pp.

Loundes, J. (1998). Melbourne Institute Wages Report, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 6pp.

Loundes, J. (1998). ‘Performance of Australian government trading enterprises: an overview’. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 22:19pp.

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Meagher, K. and Rogers, M. (1998). ‘Networks, spillovers and models of economic growth’. Discussion Papers, Sydney, The University of New South Wales, 1:34pp.

Rogers, M. (1998). ‘The definition and measurement of innovation’. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 10:27pp.

Rogers, M. (1998). ‘The definition and measurement of productivity’. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 9:27pp.

Rogers, M. (1998). ‘Innovation in Australian enterprises: evidence from the GAPS and IBIS databases’. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 19:30pp.

Rogers, M. (1998). ‘Management, organisational and technological change in Australian workplaces: evidence from the AWIRS data sets’. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 11:27pp.

Rogers, M. (1998). ‘Productivity in Australian enterprises: evidence from the ABS growth and performance survey’, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 20:31pp.

Rogers, M. and Feeny, S. (1998). ‘The innovation scoreboard: an analysis of the innovative activities of large Australian enterprises’, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 274pp.

Scutella, R. and Johnson, D. (1998). ‘The Melbourne Institute general equilibrium tax model’. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 24:43pp.

Valenzuela, R. and Webster, E. (1998). Melbourne Institute household savings report: quarterly report, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 7pp.

Webster, E., Harding, D.and Harding, G. (1998). The contestability of publicly funded employment and benefit services: the Australian experience, Report for the New Zealand Treasury, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 28pp.

Webster, E. and Scutella, R. (1998). Westpac – Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment: monthly report, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 3pp.

Webster, E. and Scutella, R. (1998). Westpac – Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia: quarterly report, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 9pp.

Thesis Anderson, M. (1998). ‘Neoclassical economics and the Australian community’, PhD thesis.

Seminars and Presentations, 1998 Anderson, M. ‘Neoclassical Economics and the Australian Community: How Does the Australian Public Arrange Economics Knowledge?’, SASE Annual Conference, Vienna, Austria, Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics, July 1998.

Boehm, E. ‘Business Cycle Methodology’, Business Cycle Seminar Series, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 17 August 1998.

Creedy, J., Harris, M. N. and Scutella, R. ‘MITTS model’, Melbourne Institute Monday Workshops, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 23 November 1998.

Dawkins, P. ‘Employer Feedback on University of Melbourne Graduates’, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 3 April 1998.

Dawkins, P. ‘Forecasting the Australian Economy in 1998’, Eminent Economists Forum, Melbourne, Australian Institute of Company Directors Luncheon, 28 January 1998.

Dawkins, P. ‘Labour market regulation and the interface between the labour market and the tax and social security system’, policy forum session of the Conference of Economists, Sydney, University of Sydney, 28–30 September 1998.

Dawkins, P. ‘Solutions to Unemployment and Avoiding the Diabolical Trade-Off’, Reserve Bank and ANU Conference on Unemployment, Kirribilli, 9–10 June 1998.

Dawkins, P. ‘Unemployment’, policy forum session of the Conference of Economists, Sydney, University of Sydney, 28– 30 September 1998.

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Dawkins, P., Harris, M. N. and Loundes, J. ‘State dependence, unemployment benefit and the employment and unemployment incidence of young people in Australia: an analysis of the Australian longitudinal survey’, Labour Economics Seminar Program, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 14 September 1998.

Dawkins, P., Harris, M. N. and Loundes, J. ‘State dependence, unemployment benefit and the employment and unemployment incidence of young people in Australia: an analysis of the Australian longitudinal survey’, Conference of Economists, Sydney, University of Sydney, 28–30 September 1998.

Dawkins, P. and Johnson, D. ‘The Interaction of Tax and Social Security’, Getting to Grips with the Tax Reform Debate conference, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 1 September 1998.

Dawkins, P. and Johnson, D. ‘Tax Reform’ video-link to the Western Australian Business Economics Forum, quarterly briefing 3’98, Perth, Parmelia Hilton Hotel, 1 October 1998.

Harding, D. ‘Policy Watch’, Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum, quarterly briefing 1’98, Melbourne, Hotel Sofitel, 24 March 1998.

Harding, D. ‘Surveillance of the East Asian Economies’, ADBI-PECC Workshop on Economic Monitoring of Financial Systems in East and South East Asia, Manila, 25–26 June 1998.

Harding, D. and Pagan, A. ‘Knowing the Cycle’, Combining Theory and Evidence in Macro Economics conference, Bergamo, Italy, October 1998.

Harris, M. N. and Summers, P. ‘Modelling International Trade Flows: Specification, Estimation and Hypothesis Testing’, Australian Meetings of the Econometric Society, Canberra, Australian National University, 8 July 1998.

Johnson, D. ‘Compensation and tax reform’, ForMAT conference, Sydney, University of Technology, 10 December.

Johnson, D. ‘Compensation and tax reform’, Canberra, Productivity Commission, 3 December.

Johnson, D. ‘Evaluation of tax reform with producer and consumer responses’, Melbourne Institute Advisory Board meeting, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 11 August 1998.

Johnson, D. ‘The government’s tax reform package: equity and efficiency effects of indirect tax reform’, discussion group, Melbourne, Institute of Chartered Accountants, 3 September 1998.

Johnson, D. ‘Income distribution’, VCE Economics Lectures, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 27 February 1998.

Johnson, D. ‘Incorporating producer responses in the evaluation of tax reform’, Economic Modelling Workshop, Melbourne, Monash University, 2 July 1998.

Johnson, D. ‘Modelling tax reform’, Evidence given to the Senate Select Committee, Canberra, Parliament House, 18 December 1998.

Johnson, D. ‘Reform on Indirect Taxation’, Getting to Grips with the Tax Reform Debate conference, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 1 September 1998.

Johnson, D. ‘Review of the Coalition and Labor party’s proposals for tax reform’, Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum, quarterly briefing 3’98, Melbourne, Hotel Sofitel, 22 September 1998.

Johnson, D. ‘Review of the Coalition and Labor party’s proposals for tax reform’, Western Australian Business Economics Forum, quarterly briefing 3’98, Perth, Parmelia Hilton Hotel, 1 October 1998.

Johnson, D. ‘The Tax Reform Debate’, Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum, quarterly briefing 3’98, Melbourne, Hotel Sofitel, 22 September 1998.

Johnson, D. ‘Tax Reform, Equity and Efficiency Report No. 2’, Workshop presentation, Melbourne, CEDA, 20 March 1998.

Johnson, D. and Dawkins, P. ‘Reforming the Interaction of Tax and Social Security: Alternative Approaches’, Getting to Grips with the Tax Reform Debate conference, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 1 September 1998.

Rogers, M. ‘The Melbourne Institute Innovation Scoreboard for Australia: Innovation in Australian Large Companies’, Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum, quarterly briefing 2’98, Melbourne, Hotel Sofitel, 18 June 1998.

Summers, P. ‘The Asian Crisis, Australia’s Exports, and GDP Growth’, The Asian Crisis: Economic Analysis and Market Intelligence conference, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 8 May 1998.

Summers, P. ‘Business Cycle Fluctuations in Australia and New Zealand: Global, Domestic and Trans-Tasman Influences’, 27th Conference of Economists, Economic Society of Australia, Sydney, University of Sydney, 28–30 September 1998.

Summers, P. ‘Economic Update’, Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum, quarterly briefings 1–4’98, Melbourne, Hotel Sofitel, 24 March, 18 June, 22 September, 1 December 1998.

Summers, P. ‘Economic Update’, Western Australian Business Economics Forum, quarterly briefings 2 & 4’98, Perth, Parmelia Hilton Hotel, 2 July, 9 December 1998.

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Summers, P. ‘Export-Led Growth in Asia: Long Run Relationships and Structural Change’, Creating an Internationally Competitive Economy, Perth, Curtin University of Technology, 27–28 August 1998.

Summers, P. ‘Forecasting the Impact of the Asian Crisis: Evidence from the Melbourne Institute Model’, Crisis in Asia – Impact on Australia conference, Canberra, Economic Bureau of Australia, 26 August 1998.

Summers, P. ‘Forecasting with the Melbourne Institute BVAR Model’, Workshop on Macroeconomic Forecasting, Sydney, University of Technology, 5 February 1998.

Summers, P. ‘Growth and Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region, Third Macroeconomics Workshop, Hobart, University of Tasmania, 16 March 1998, and the Econometric Society’s Australasian Meeting, Canberra, Australian National University, 8–10 July 1998.

Summers, P. ‘Productivity, Economic Growth, and Convergence: The Experience of Asia’, Third Biennial Pacific Rim Allied Economic Organisations Conference, Bangkok, Thailand, 14 January 1998.

Summers, P. ‘Trade and Growth in Settler Economies: Australian and Canadian Experiences’, Albany, N.Y., State University of New York, 19 February 1998.

Webster, E. ‘Labour as an asset. Can it partition the market?’, Conference of Economists, Sydney, University of Sydney, September 1998.

Webster, E. ‘Labour market programs and wage inflation’, Macroeconomics workshop, Hobart, University of Tasmania, April 1998.

Media Coverage, 1998 258 references to the Melbourne Institute were identified in the print media and radio/television in 1998. This was an increase of 73 on 1997. 8 of these references were to opinion page articles in the Australian Financial Review, the Australian and the Age. These were as follows: Dawkins, P. (1998). ‘GST winning voter favour’, Australian Financial Review, 17 September.

Dawkins, P. (1998). ‘Howard in for a taxing time’, Australian Financial Review, 12 August, p. 16.

Dawkins, P. (1998). ‘Negative tax a positive step’, Australian Financial Review, 18 August, p. 16.

Dawkins, P. (1998). ‘Why lower wages hold key’, The Age, 22 September, p. 15.

Dawkins, P., Freebairn, J., Garnaut, R., Keating, M., and Richardson, C. (1998). ‘Dear John: How to create more jobs’, The Australian, 26 October, p. 13, letter to the Prime Minister.

Harding, D. and Summers, P. (1998). ‘Easy on the doom and gloom’, Australian Financial Review, 24 September.

Harding, D. and Summers, P. (1998). ‘A major policy change the RBA can well afford’, Australian Financial Review, 1 December, p. 19.

Johnson, D. (1998). ‘Consumption tax will defy the doomsayers’, Australian Financial Review, 27 July, p. 15.

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FINANCE AND PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Income and Expenditure of the Melbourne Institute 1994–98 1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

$1,050,025

$1,273,289

$1,105,576

$1,366,062

$1,742,783

Subscription services

$372,315

$336,776

$211,828

$277,838

$326,978

Consultancies

$314,151

$559,915

$610,183

$736,501

$728,057

Grants

$363,559

$376,598

$283,565

$351,723

$687,748

$175,000

$175,000

$200,000

$175,000

$150,000

$69,310

$89,297

$224,499

$214,500

$218,390

$1,294,335

$1,537,586

$1,530,075

$1,755,562

$2,111,173

$1,028,101

$976,280

$1,080,257

$1,179,267

$1,423,132

$308,429

$449,805

$387,178

$571,472

$676,060

$1,336,530

$1,426,085

$1,467,435

$1,750,739

$2,099,192

($42,195)

$111,501

$62,640

$4,823

$11,981

Income Non-University funds made up of

Faculty of Economics and Commerce base grant Other University funds Total income Expenditure Salaries Other expenditure Total expenditure Surplus

Note: The figures for 1994–96 exclude the Asian Business Centre which has since been transferred to the Department of Economics.

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Performance Indicators for the Melbourne Institutea 1996

1997

1998

$207,400

$234,128 11%

$346,577 32%

$77,500

$199,316 61%

$341,171 42%

Industry and other research funds

$304,317

$503,475 40%

$550,857 9%

Total external research income

$589,217

$936,920 37%

$1,238,605 24%

Refereed journal articles

11

12 8%

34 183%

Total publications

47

95 51%

115 21%

Research higher degree students (full-time equivalent)

2.5

4.5 44%

5 10%

135

175 23%

258 32%

2. Value of subscriptions and sponsorship

$379,828

$448,338 15%

$504,178 11%

3. References to the Melbourne Institute in the media

116

193 40%

213 9%

$1,530,075

$1,755,562 13%

$2,111,173 17%

10.20

11.70 13%

14.07 17%

A. Research performance indexes 1. Research income

National competitive research grants Other public research grants

2. Publications

3. Higher degree students B. Indicators with respect to business, government and public policy debates 1. Subscriptions to Melbourne Institute products (excluding Australian Economic Review)

4. Contributions to public policy discussion and debate, see page 14 C. Financial performance 1. Total income 2. Ratio of total income to the Faculty’s base-line funding

Note: (a) The figures for 1996 exclude the Asian Business Centre that has since been transferred to the Department of Economics.

Percentage figures represent the increase/decrease between successive years.

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OUTLOOK FOR 1999 AND 2000 Introduction Our strategic plan includes a target of doubling our research output between 1997 and 2001, being a leader in economic and social modelling and in the production, analysis and commentary on economic and social indicators, and being an increasingly influential source of ideas for government, business and community groups.

Our planned activities in 1999–2000 include some new products, a number of conferences, new books and new projects. Some of these are outlined below.

Some New Activities and Special Events Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum In 1999 the Melbourne Institute is launching the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra. Co-chaired

by Tony Cole, Ted Evans and Michael Keating, the Forum will have quarterly lunchtime functions at which major public policy issues such as unemployment, the health system, the ageing population and tax reform will be discussed. Members of the Forum will receive invitations to attend these luncheons as well as copies of the Melbourne Institute’s publications and invitations to attend other Melbourne Institute conferences etc.

Conference and Book on the Ageing Population in Association with the Productivity Commission 1999 is the international year of the aged. The ageing population is an increasing focus of policy discussion, so the Productivity Commission and the Melbourne Institute have decided to make a major contribution to this discussion in Australia. This includes a conference of relevant experts in March, and a consequent book based upon the conference proceedings. The contents of this book will form the basis of the policy forum at the September Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra.

Conference on Economic Indicators and the Business Cycle In October the Melbourne Institute will host a conference focusing on the use and analysis of business cycle indicators.

Since our last conference on business cycles in 1997, substantial progress has been made in our research program in this area. This progress will be showcased and discussed with relevant experts.

Book Launch: How Big Business Performs: Private Performance and Public Policy In November 1999, we will launch the above named book, edited by Peter Dawkins, Michael Harris and Stephen King and published by Allen and Unwin. It will include chapters written by a range of University of Melbourne researchers and some researchers from other universities. The book was produced under the special relationship between the Melbourne Institute and IBIS, whereby the unique, IBIS, large enterprise database was analysed to shed light on the determinants of enterprise performance and associated public policy issues.

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Conferences on Big Issues for Big Business In November 1999 the Melbourne Institute will present a major trilogy of three consecutive half day conferences over a one and a half day period on: • How Big Business Performs • Downsizing and Restructuring in Australian Industry • Mergers: A Policy Forum At the conferences, the new book How Big Business Performs: Private Performance and Public Policy will be launched, as well as a report on Downsizing and Restructuring of Australian Industry, the second to result from a project in association with CEDA and the Myer Foundation. The Policy Forum on Mergers will be published in the Australian Economic Review in March 2000.

Research on the Economics and Reform of the Health-Care System The Melbourne Institute has identified this area as one of major importance for policy-based research in Australia.

Therefore, it is exploring ways in which it can make a major contribution. As a start the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra is focusing on this topic in June 1999 with associated articles in the Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends.

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