2000 Annual Report - Melbourne Institute

MELBOURNE INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

Annual Report 2000 and Outlook 2001–2002

Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Level 6, Economics and Commerce Building The University of Melbourne Victoria 3010 Australia Phone: (03) 8344 5330 Fax: (03) 8344 5630 Email: melb.inst@iaesr.unimelb.edu.au WWW: http://www.melbourneinstitute.com

Š2001 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.

COPYRIGHT: All rights reserved. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing of the Publisher.

ISSN 1441-1423 Photos by Photonet, Adrian Hall Photography, ID Photographics and Tyson Sadlo.

Printed and bound by Impact Printing.

CONTENTS Some Highlights

4

Introduction to the Melbourne Institute

6

Director’s Report

8

Outlook for 2001 and 2002

10

Staff, Associates and Research Students

12

Advisory Board

16

Research Areas

18

Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Analysis

18

Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies

20

Enterprise Performance Research

25

Contributions to Policy Analysis and Debates

26

Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum

28

Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum

30

Two Day Conference on Welfare Reform

31

Publications by Subscription

33

Staff Publications, Seminars, Presentations and Media Coverage

36

Finance and Performance Indicators

44

SOME HIGHLIGHTS • McClure Report on welfare reform released (Director was one of the authors) and 380 attend Melbourne Institute/FaCS conference on welfare reform • Melbourne Institute commenced work on a major new longitudinal survey (HILDA) about living in Australia • Melbourne Institute’s economic indicators and forecasts continued to be closely watched and the Centre for Business Cycle Analysis was praised by a review

Professor Peter Dawkins, Ms Elizabeth Morgan, Mr Mark Paterson, Mr Ted Evans, Mr Michael Raper and Mr Patrick McClure talking about welfare reform at the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra in April 2000

• Melbourne Institute’s research and forums on innovation created considerable interest • Melbourne Institute planned a social policy research agenda under a major four year contract with the Department of Family and Community Services • Relationships maintained and extended Mr Peter Scherer of the OECD, Mr David Butler of the Manpower with relevant private and public Demonstration Research Corporation, Mr David Kalisch of the organisations and community groups such Department of Family and Community Services and Professor Bob Goodin of the Australian National University at the Welfare as Westpac, William M. Mercer, IBISWorld, Reform conference in November 2000 Mercantile Mutual (now ING), Reserve Bank of Australia, Department of Family and Community Services, Department of Employment, Workplace Relations and Small Business, Productivity Commission, Australian Taxation Office and the Committee for Economic Development of Australia

Mr Don Harding, Director of the Centre for Business Cycle Analysis, presenting the Melbourne Institute’s economic update at the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum

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Professor Peter Dawkins at the launch of the 2000 R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard

Performance Indicators Melbourne Institute performance indicators registered increases in: • National competitive research grants • Other research funding • Total external research income • Subscriptions to Melbourne Institute products Melbourne Institute staff published 30 articles in refereed journals including: Economic Papers, Australasian Journal on Ageing, Gender Issues, Economic Analysis and Policy, Journal of Macroeconomics, Applied Economics Letters, The Economic Record, The Australian Economic Review, Australian Bulletin of Labour, Information Economics and Policy, Journal of Industrial Relations, Industrial Relations: a Journal of Economy and Society, Hacienda Publica Espanola, Review, Australian Social Monitor, Queensland Economic Review.

Figure 1: Growth of External Research Income

External Research Income ($million)

5

4.35

4

projected

3

1.98

2 1

0.58

0.93

1.23

1.37

1998

1999

0

1996

1997

Year

2000

2001 projected

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INTRODUCTION TO THE MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Vision, Mission, Focus, History and Strategic Objectives Vision The Melbourne Institute aims to be a major institute of applied economic and social research that is nationally and internationally renowned in academia, government, business and community groups, and which • promotes a deeper understanding and discussion of economic and social issues of national significance; • fosters effective responses to these issues through research that identifies alternative policy responses and quantifies their likely effects; • combines rigorous economic and social analysis with a genuine attachment to the Australian community’s concern for the less well off.

Accordingly our vision is to be ‘hard-headed but soft-hearted’.

Mission In seeking to achieve this vision the Melbourne Institute’s central mission is • to undertake world-class independent and impartial applied economic and social research and policy analysis, on major issues relevant to Australia; produce highly valued products and services for business, government and community groups; and provide research training for emerging economic and social researchers.

• to use our research to foster informed discussion and debate amongst academics, policy makers, business and community groups, through publications, conferences, forums and the media.

In pursuing this mission, the Melbourne Institute will also undertake internationally collaborative research and will seek to develop intellectual property that may be transferred to other parts of the world.

Focus Unifying Theme The unifying theme of the Melbourne Institute’s research agenda is to examine the determinants of both economic performance and social outcomes, and to explore the mutual relationship between the two.

Research Programs Our current research programs are in the following areas: macroeconomics and business cycle analysis; labour, social and fiscal studies; and enterprise performance. While our core discipline is, and will remain, economics, we plan to engage with other disciplines including sociology, statistics, management, accounting, finance, demography, law and others.

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History The Melbourne Institute was formed in 1962 under the leadership of Professor Ronald Henderson. It was the first economics research institute in an Australian university. Henderson built up an organisation with over 40 staff by the early 1970s. It engaged in a wide range of research areas including macroeconomic forecasting, financial economics and social economics, and is best remembered for its work on poverty and the development of the "Henderson Poverty Line".

After the Henderson era, Professor Peter Dixon was appointed Director and, after some restructuring, the new Institute based its operation around Dixon’s ORANI model of the Australian economy. In the early 1990s, Peter Dixon and a number of his senior colleagues left the Institute to join Monash University. This necessitated a second period of adjustment and restructuring initiated by Professor Richard Blandy who was Director from 1992 to 1994.

The current Director, Professor Peter Dawkins, took his position in January 1996 and developed a five-year strategic plan to raise the Institute’s profile in academia, business, government and the community sector. The unifying theme of its research agenda was the link between economic performance and social outcomes. Since 1996 the Institute has more than doubled in size on a range of measures (staff, revenue, publications, media references etc.).

Peter Dawkins has been appointed for a second five-year period (2001 to 2005) and a new strategic plan developed. The Institute now operates in three research areas: macroeconomics and business cycle analysis; labour social and fiscal studies; and enterprise performance research. In the new strategic plan, the Institute aims to achieve a national and international reputation for excellence in its "hard headed but soft-hearted" economic and social research, and to continue contributing strongly to public policy discussion. In pursuing this agenda, it plans to continue growing in size. In 2001 its expected income is over $5m and it employs about 35 staff.

Strategic Objectives For the period 2001-2005 the Melbourne Institute aims: 1. to consolidate and build on our strength and reputation in quantitative macroeconomics and business cycle analysis, to be widely regarded as the major Australian centre in this field, and to produce world-class research output alongside highly respected economic indicators and forecasts; 2. to firmly establish our role in the closely related areas of labour, social and fiscal studies, with a view to being widely regarded as the major Australian centre in this field, with a primary focus on: • social policy research, especially about the link between the social security system and the labour market and economic and social policy issues relating to families and communities; • household survey research, especially the survey of Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA), but also with an interest in undertaking research on important policy issues on other related topics (such as immigration, education policy, health policy, industrial relations), and an interest in undertaking miscellaneous consultancies on a range of topics in applied economic and social research that utilise the skills of the researchers in this area; 3. to build upon the foundations laid in recent years in the area of enterprise performance and the related topic of intangible assets, intellectual property and innovation, and to establish a viable research team in this field that will become widely regarded as excellent and producing outstanding research output; 4. to take advantage of our strengths in all the fields in which we operate, to conduct collaborative research between the associated research teams to achieve insights that would not be possible if the teams operated only on an independent basis; 5. to explore other related fields in which we might choose to operate and to cautiously expand into such other areas that would add to the overall strength of the Melbourne Institute in applied economic and social research, without detracting from its existing strengths and cohesion; 6. to engage with policy makers, business and community groups, contributing strongly to economic and social debates and policy discussion and development in Australia, through publications, conferences, seminars, forums and other relevant means; 7. to be a significant centre of postgraduate study in economic and social research; 8. to be an enjoyable place to work and to promote the career development of staff of the Melbourne Institute; 9. to effectively manage the growth of the Melbourne Institute from a small into a medium-sized organisation, achieving the appropriate balance between spontaneity and efficient operation; 10. to make the best use of information technology in achieving greater internal efficiency and in providing services to clients.

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DIRECTOR’S REPORT Introduction: Hard Heads: Soft Hearts 2000 was my fifth year as Director and I am pleased to be embarking on my second five-year contract in 2001. I can report that targets set in our strategic plan for 19962000 were achieved. We have now developed a new strategic plan for 2001-2005.

Our vision is to be a major institute of applied economic and social research that is nationally and internationally renowned in academia, government, business and community groups, and to do so in a hard-headed but soft-hearted way. That is, we aim to combine rigorous economic and social analysis with a genuine attachment to the Australian community’s concern for the less well off.

Over the period from 1996 until now the Melbourne Institute has grown in size from having 18 to 33 staff. We have 13 outstanding academics as adjunct professors and associates also. Our revenue in 1996 was about $1.4m. In 2001 it is expected to be over $5m. Our range of publications has broadened and we have a very active Professor Peter Dawkins program of forums and conferences. We like to think that our research findings and DIRECTOR ideas have some influence in academia, government, business and community groups.

We believe this is a strong base upon which to further build and develop our contribution to Australian research and Australian policy debates, and to aim to develop an outstanding reputation internationally.

Welfare Reform Welfare Reform was a major issue in 2000 and one that occupied a considerable amount of my time as a member of the Reference Group that produced the McClure Report for the Commonwealth Government. During the welfare review by the Reference Group, the Melbourne Institute hosted two seminars for invited experts on the issue of possible reforms to the income support system. I think they were very helpful indeed.

A few months after the McClure Report was released, the Melbourne Institute hosted a major two-day conference on welfare reform which was attended by 380 people from a mixture of government, community groups, business and academia. This is more fully reported on pages 31-32.

The Research Agenda The Melbourne Institute’s three research programs are: • Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research Program • Enterprise Performance Research Program • Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies Research Program.

Each had a very active year in 2000. Their activities and outputs are outlined on pages 18-25.

The Melbourne Institute’s Centre for Business Cycle Analysis was reviewed by a panel chaired by the University’s Professor John Freebairn and joined by two external reviewers, Professor Alan Layton (QUT) and Mr Tony Cole of William M. Mercer. More details are provided on page 18, but it was a very pleasing report in which it was stated that “the Centre has been an impressive performer in recent years and especially since 1998”. It made a particular point of commenting on its economic forecasting performance.

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As well as having a very active year of research, the Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies Research Program won two large contracts with the Department of Family and Community Services. One is to conduct four years of social policy research and the other is to design and manage the new survey of Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA). These major developments are outlined on page 21.

The Enterprise Performance Research Program came towards the end of a major three-year ARC project, in collaboration with a number of government departments and agencies and IBISWorld, in which it has produced a large number of papers on the innovativeness, productivity and profitability of Australian business. In 2001 and 2002 it is moving on to a new ARC project in association with IBISWorld, the BCA and CEDA, in which the research agenda is enterprise performance.

Staffing and Adjunct Appointments In the course of 2000 several staff joined the Melbourne Institute. These were Professor Mark Wooden as Professorial Fellow, Mr Duy Tran and Mr Matt Hammill as Research Officers, and Ms Lara Hammond as Administrative Assistant.

Three adjunct appointments were also made in 2000: Professor Bruce Chapman of the ANU as Professorial Fellow, Professor Alan Duncan of the University of Nottingham as Professorial Fellow, and Professor John Freebairn of the Economics Department at the University of Melbourne as Adjunct Professor.

Congratulations to Mr Michael Harris, Research Fellow, who submitted his PhD in 2000, and left to take up a lectureship at La Trobe University. We wish him well in his new position. Dr Hyeon-seung Huh also left to take a position in Korea at the Hallym University. Mr Ben Jensen decided not to renew his contract as a Research Officer in 2001, but will still be working on his PhD in the Institute.

Professor Alan Duncan A number of new staff are joining us in 2001. This includes a new position of APPOINTED AS A PROFESSORIAL FELLOW IN 2000 Business Manager, Ms Fiona Zammit, to head our administrative and technical support team and work with the senior academics in our senior management group in the running of the Institute. Other appointments include Dr Guyonne Kalb and Mr Roger Wilkins as Research Fellows, Mr Michael Chua and Mr Hsien Kew as Research Officers, Mr Simon Freidin as HILDA Database Manager and Ms Penny Hope as Administrative Assistant.

Advisory Board I would like to thank Dr Peter Jonson and the Advisory Board for their important contribution. The Board plays a crucial role for the Melbourne Institute in the form of high level advice and contact with the world of government, business and community groups. In 2000/2001 it has been especially helpful in assisting with the development of our new strategic plan.

A special mention again for Mr Tony Cole, who in addition to serving on the Board, chairs the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Melbourne and has taken the role of co-chairing the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra and the new Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Sydney.

Administrative and Technical Support I would also like to take this opportunity to thank the administrative and technical support team that plays a very important role in ensuring the smooth operation of the Melbourne Institute.

Left to Right: Mr Jean-Luc Garlick, Ms Rachel Derham, Ms Lara Hammond, Ms Fiona Zammit, Ms Karen Roe and Ms Penny Hope

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OUTLOOK FOR 2001 AND 2002 Introduction Our strategic plan for 2001-2005 includes the aim of becoming internationally as well as nationally renowned in academia, business, government and community groups. We aim to approximately double our research output in this period and be an increasingly influential source of ideas for government, business and community groups.

Some of our planned activities in 2001-2002 are outlined below.

The Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator The Melbourne Institute’s new behavioural model of the Australian tax and transfer system, developed as joint intellectual property with the Department of Family and Community Services, is now operational. It is planned this model will be extensively used to assess the likely effects of a range of possible reforms to the tax and social security system. As well as a range of projects using the model and research to further develop the model, a number of seminars will be arranged in 2001.

Social Policy Research The Melbourne Institute has been selected as one of the preferred tenderers for the provision of social policy research to the Department of Family and Community Services (FaCS) for the period 2001-2004. A contract has been negotiated which involves funding from FaCS of $750,000 per year over this period. Professor Jeff Borland of the Economics Department at the University of Melbourne is joining the Melbourne Institute as an Adjunct Professor to lead one of the three research teams for this contract. The teams are to be put in place in the following areas: • Empirical Studies of the Interaction of the Labour Market and Social Security System (led

by Jeff Borland) • The Supply and Demand for Income Security (led by Peter Dawkins) • Economic and Social Research on Families and Communities (led by David Johnson).

Professor Jeff Borland will play a key role in the social policy research contract

HILDA Survey As outlined on page 21 of this report, the design and management of the survey of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) will be a major activity in 2001 and 2002.

Forthcoming Conferences The Melbourne Institute is planning two conferences in 2001 and at least one in 2002.

"Business Cycles", November 2001 The Melbourne Institute will host a two-day conference on international business cycles and their impact on Australia on 8-9 November 2001. A particular focus of the conference will be the role of domestic monetary policy in an

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international context. In addition, plenary sessions are planned for issues related to what academics and business economists can learn from each other; the dating of business cycles; and the use of "real-time" (that is, unrevised) data in forecasting and business cycle analysis. The conference will be of interest to academics, practitioners and policy makers alike.

"Creating Jobs: The Role of Government", September 2001 in conjunction with the Australian National University We will hold a major conference in conjunction with the Australian National University in September 2001 on unemployment in Australia. The aim of the conference will be to ascertain to what extent government can increase employment and reduce long term unemployment, which policies are likely to be most effective, and to what extent that effectiveness will be constrained or enhanced by macroeconomic factors and the international economy. The keynote speaker will be Dr Gary Burtless, Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution.

Economic and Social Outlook Conference, April 2002, in conjunction with The Australian We will hold the first of a proposed series of biennial Economic and Social Outlook Conferences, "Towards Opportunity and Prosperity" in conjunction with The Australian, in April 2002. The aim of the conference will be to explore the major economic and social trends in Australia and to debate associated policy issues.

Research on the Economics and Reform of the Health-Care System The Melbourne Institute has identified this area as one of major importance for policy based research in Australia.

The Institute is planning a number of working conferences (in collaboration with other organisations) and publications in this field over the next year.

Monograph on Innovation, Productivity and Profitability of Australian Enterprises In 2001, some of the research findings from a current ARC SPIRT Grant project on the Performance of Australian Enterprises are being brought together and summarised in a new monograph. This will provide a compendium of research evidence about the factors associated with innovativeness, productivity and profitability in small, medium and large enterprises.

Sydney Business Economics Forum We are very pleased with the success of the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Melbourne which has been in operation since 1997. The Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra is going well also. We are launching a Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Sydney in 2001.

Mr Glenn Stevens, Assistant Governor (Economic) of the Reserve Bank of Australia, speaking at the inaugural Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Sydney

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STAFF, ASSOCIATES AND RESEARCH STUDENTS Staff Members in 2000

Administrative and Technical Support Staff

Research Staff

Finance and Information Technology Manager Mr Jean-Luc Garlick BSc, Dip Hum, Dip Eco Com LaT

Director and Ronald Henderson Professor Professor Peter Dawkins BSc Lough, MSc (Eco) Lond, PhD Lough Professorial Research Fellow Professor Mark Wooden BEc Hons Flinders, MSc (Eco) Lond

Functions Manager Ms Karen Roe BA Hons, MA LaT, PGDACS Melb Senior Administrative Officer Ms Rachel Derham BSc Melb

Principal Research Fellow and Deputy Director Assoc Prof David Johnson DipAgrEc NE, BAgrSc, MCom, PhD Melb

Administrative Assistants Ms Lara Hammond Ms Rosy Qin (on leave)

Senior Research Fellow and Director, Centre for Business Cycle Analysis Mr Don Harding BEc, Dip Ec, MEc ANU

Postgraduate Students

Senior Research Fellow and Director, Enterprise Performance Research Program Dr Elizabeth Webster BEc Hons, MEc Monash, PhD Camb Senior Research Fellows Dr Mariah Evans BA (Soc) Reed, MA (Soc) Illinois, PhD (Soc) Chicago Dr Mark Harris BA (Eco) Suss, GDipEc, PhD Monash Dr Peter Summers BA (Commun), MA (Urb Reg Plng), MS (Math), PhD Iowa Research Fellows Mr Simon Feeny BA Hons Portsmouth, MSc Reading Mr Michael Harris BEc Hons ANU Dr Hyeon-seung Huh BEc Yonsei, GDipEc, MEc Syd, PhD UNSW Ms Anne Leahy BCom Melb Ms Nellie Lentini BA Monash Mr Woei Tian Liew BSc, MSc LaT, GDipEc Melb Ms Joanne Loundes BEc Hons Murdoch Ms Rosanna Scutella BCom Hons Melb Dr Yi-Ping Tseng BEc Taiwan, PhD ANU Ms Nicole Watson BSc Hons UWA, GradDipMgtSc Canberra Research Officers Mr Matt Hammill BEc Newcastle, BComm (Hons) Melb Mrs Glenys Harding BEc ANU Dr Joanna Sikora MA Wroclaw, PhD ANU

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Mr Yasar Gedik BEc Hons LaT MCom Melb Mr Matt Hammill BEc Newcastle BComm Hons Melb Mr Ben Jensen BComm Hons Melb Ms Joanne Loundes BEc Hons Murdoch Mr Andrew Parnell BEc ANU Ms Rosanna Scutella BCom Hons Melb Ms Penny Smith BEc Hons UWA

New Staff Members in 2001 New Research and Administrative Staff Research Fellows Mr Simon Freidin BSc Hons LaT, GradDipCompSci LaT Dr Guyonne Kalb MEc Erasmus, PhD Monash Dr Lei Lei Song MSc, MCom, PhD Melb Mr Duy Tien Tran BAgrEco Hons UNE Dr Roger Wilkins BCom Hons, MCom, MSci (Eco) Wisconsin Research Officers Mr Michael Chua BEc Hons UNE Mr Hsien Kew BCom Melb Business Manager Ms Fiona Zammit Dip Ed, BEd Deakin Administrative Assistant Ms Penny Hope BA LaT

Staff Members in 2000-2001

Mr Michael Chua

Professor Peter Dawkins

Ms Rachel Derham

Dr Mariah Evans

Mr Simon Feeny

Mr Simon Freidin

Mr Jean-Luc Garlick

Mr Matt Hammill

Ms Lara Hammond

Mr Don Harding

Mrs Glenys Harding

Dr Mark Harris

Mr Michael Harris

Ms Penny Hope

Dr Hyeon-seung Huh

Mr Ben Jensen

Associate Professor David Johnson

Dr Guyonne Kalb

Mr Hsien Kew

Ms Anne Leahy

Ms Nellie Lentini

Mr Woei Tian Liew

Ms Joanne Loundes

Ms Karen Roe

Ms Rosanna Scutella

Dr Joanna Sikora

Dr Lei Lei Song

Dr Peter Summers

Mr Duy Tien Tran

Dr Yi-Ping Tseng

Ms Nicole Watson

Dr Elizabeth Webster

Dr Roger Wilkins

Professor Mark Wooden

Ms Fiona Zammit

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Adjunct Professors and Associates in 2000 Adjunct Professors Professor John Creedy BSc (Eco) Brist, BPhil (Eco) Oxf Adjunct Professor, Melbourne Institute Truby Williams Chair of Economics, Department of Economics, the University of Melbourne Research interests include income distribution, public economics, labour economics and the history of economic analysis. Within the Institute, John has been joint Editor of the Australian Economic Review and contribute to tax and welfare research and the development of the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS).

Professor John Freebairn MAgrEcon NE, PhD Davis, FASSA Adjunct Professor, Melbourne Institute Head, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Research interests include taxation reform, labour economics, especially employment, infrastructure pricing and investment and microeconomic reform. Within the Institute, John has made substantial contributions to research on unemployment and the areas of tax reform, public finance and public policy.

Adjunct Associate Professor Professor Jeff Borland MA, PhD Yale Adjunct Associate Professor, Melbourne Institute Associate Professor, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Research interests include analysis of the operation of labour markets in Australia, applications of microeconomic theory to labour markets and the economics of sport. Within the Institute, Jeff is an associate editor of the Australian Economic Review and a key leader in our social policy research agenda.

Professorial Fellows Professor Bruce Chapman BEc Hons ANU, PhD Yale Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute Professor of Economics and Director of Centre for Economic Policy Research, RSSS, The Australian National University Research interests include labour economics, the economics of education, applied econometrics, industrial relations and economic policy issues. Within the Institute, Bruce is a key contributor to economic policy debate and is contributing to Melbourne Institute forums on higher education in 2001.

Professor Alan Duncan BA Hons (Eco) Manchester, DPhil (Eco) York Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute Professor of Microeconomics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham Research interests include welfare program evaluation, analysis of work incentives, static and behavioural tax microsimulation, econometric models of labour supply and labour market and welfare program participation. Within the Institute, Alan has led the development of the MITTS model in association with John Creedy.

Professor Jonathan Kelley BA Camb, PhD Berkeley Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute Director, International Survey Project, The Australian National University, and Director and Principal Investigator, International Social Science Survey and International Survey of Economic Attitudes Research interests include quantitative sociology and social economics. Within the Institute, Jonathan produces the International Social Science Survey in conjunction with the ANU. He has been a major contributor to the Australian Social Monitor and a key figure in the social policy research agenda.

Principal Fellow Dr Ernst Boehm AUA, BEc Hons, MEc Adel, DPhil Oxf, MCom Melb Principal Fellow, Melbourne Institute Research interests include the measurement and dating of the business cycle and the economic history of Australia. Within the Institute, Ernst developed the leading, coincident and lagging indexes of Australian economic activity as well as the leading index of inflation. He published the results of these indexes in the monthly Westpac – Melbourne Institute reports between 1985 and 1994.

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Senior Fellow Dr Mark Rogers BSc (Eco) Lond, MSc (Eco) Warw, PhD ANU Senior Fellow, Melbourne Institute Tutor in Economics and Management, Harris Manchester College, Oxford University Research interests include economic growth and industrial organisation with a particular focus being on firm-level performance using Australian data. Within the Institute Mark is involved in the creation and analysis of the Innovation Scoreboard and a major SPIRT project on the performance of Australian enterprises.

New Adjunct Professors and Associates in 2001 Professorial Fellows Professor Derek Bosworth BA Lancaster, MSc, PhD Warwick Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute Professor of Business Economics, Manchester School of Management, UMIST Research interests include economics of innovation and technical change, productivity and firm performance and intellectual property. Within the Institute, Derek is a principal investigator in an ARC SPIRT grant and is collaborating with the Enterprise Performance Research Program in the field of the economics of innovation. He was the instigator of the Innovation Scoreboard.

Professor Boris Schedvin BEc, PhD Syd Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute Research interests include economic history with particular interests in the transformation of the Australian economy and of Australian economic and scientific institutions during the course of the twentieth century. Within the Institute, Boris contributes to the research agenda in the areas of education policy, health policy research and intellectual property research.

Principal Fellow Associate Professor Bruce Headey BA Oxford, MA Wisc PhD Strath Principal Fellow, Melbourne Institute Formerly the Director of the Centre for Public Policy, the University of Melbourne.

Research interests include welfare and distributional issues and social welfare policies in Western Europe and North America. Within the Institute, Bruce is the editor of the Australian Social Monitor and involved in social policy research.

Adjunct Professor Professor Danny Samson BEc, PhD UNSW Adjunct Professor, Melbourne Institute Professor, Department of Management, The University of Melbourne Research interests include operations management, business competitiveness, strategy and e-commerce.

Within the Institute Danny contributes to the Enterprise Performance Research Program, is chief investigator of an ARC SPIRT Grant and is involved in collaboration on research on innovation.

Senior Fellow Dr Mardi Dungey BEc, UTas PhD ANU Senior Fellow, Melbourne Institute Fellow Research, School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Australian National University. Research interests include exchange rate volatility, macroeconomic modeling and time series econometrics. Within the Institute, Mardi contributes to the Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Analysis Program.

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ADVISORY BOARD Advisory Board Members in 2000 Chairperson Dr Peter Jonson, Professional Director

Members Ms Stella Axarlis AM, Managing Director, Bilcon Engineering Mr Gary Banks, Chairman, Productivity Commission Mr Tony Cole, Principal - National Practice Leader, William M. Mercer Mr Michael Costa, Secretary, Labor Council of NSW, who resigned in 2001 due to entering parliament Professor Peter Dawkins, Director and Ronald Henderson Professor, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne Mr Bill Evans, General Manager, Westpac Banking Corporation Father Nic Frances, Executive Director, Brotherhood of St Laurence Dr Peter Jonson Professor John Freebairn, Head, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Mr Don Harding, Assistant Director, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne Assoc Prof David Johnson, Deputy Director, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne Mr Ian Little, Secretary, Department of Treasury and Finance, Victoria Professor Peter Lloyd, Ritchie Professor of Economics and Director, Centre for Financial Studies, The University of Melbourne Assoc Prof Alison McClelland, Associate Professor, Department of Social Work and Social Policy, La Trobe University Dr David Rosalky, Secretary, Department of Family and Community Services Mr Phil Ruthven, Executive Chairman, IBIS Business Information Professor Boris Schedvin, Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Academic Management), The University of Melbourne Mr Glenn Stevens, Assistant Governor (Economic), Reserve Bank of Australia Dr Elizabeth Webster, Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne Professor Ross Williams FASSA, Dean, Faculty of Economics and Commerce, The University of Melbourne Professor Mark Wooden, Professorial Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne

Professor Peter Dawkins and Dr Peter Jonson

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A meeting of the Advisory Board

Mr Michael Costa

Ms Stella Axarlis AM

Mr Tony Cole

Professor Ross Williams and Associate Professor David Johnson

Mr Bill Evans

Mr Don Harding

Professor Peter Lloyd

Professor John Freebairn and Associate Professor David Johnson

Mr Glenn Stevens

Mr Gary Banks

Professor Boris Schedvin

Dr David Rosalky and Mr Ian Little

Dr Elizabeth Webster

Mr Phil Ruthven and Associate Professor Alison McClelland

Father Nic Frances

Professor Mark Wooden

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RESEARCH AREAS Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Analysis Introduction In 2000 the Centre for Business Cycle Analysis was engaged in a major program of research on business cycles as well as continuing to produce its regular publications on economic indicators and forecasting etc. These publications include the Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity, Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment, Melbourne Institute Survey of Inflationary Expectations and the ING Melbourne Institute Savings Report.

Research Staff The Melbourne Institute Centre for Business Cycle Analysis is led by Mr Don Harding (Director) and Dr Peter Summers (Deputy Director).

The year 2000 saw big changes in staffing of the Centre. Dr Hyeon-Seung Huh returned to Korea, Ms Joanne Loundes moved to Enterprise Performance and Ms Rosanna Scutella moved fully into the Labour Social and Fiscal Studies Program. Ms Penelope Smith joined the Centre as a postgraduate student and Mr Matt Hammill joined the Centre as a Research Officer early in 2000. Several new staff were appointed in the second half of 2000, these included Ms Anne Leahy to manage our indicators, Dr Lei Lei Song and Mr Duy Tran who joined as a Research Fellows and Mr Michael Chua as a Research Officer.

Mr Don Harding

Review of the Centre The Centre was reviewed in 2000 and found to be “an impressive performer in recent years and especially since 1998”. The review also found that: In terms of output, the Centre has been especially successful with its macroeconomic forecasts and with its research projects on business cycles. The Centre was one of very Dr Peter Summers few economic forecasters to forecast the robust performance of the Australian economy during the period of the Asian economic meltdown and subsequently. In part, this was an outcome of the development and use of recently developed econometric techniques in conjunction with the use of the previous tools of leading and coincident indicators.

In 2000 Dr Peter Summers presented research from the forecasting program at the 20th International Symposium held in Lisbon, Portugal.

Research team: Ms Anne Leahy, Ms Penny Smith, Mr Duy Tien Tran, Mr Don Harding, Mr Matt Hammill and Dr Peter Summers

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The review further observed that: The Centre has embarked on state-of-the-art analysis of business cycles. In part this has been at the initiative of the full time staff and in part it has been facilitated by the input of Adrian Pagan. Analysis of business cycles, including the use of recent developments in econometrics, has become an important and, of recent times, more popular topic of economic analysis. The Centre clearly is at the forefront of Australian analysis.

In 2000 Don Harding presented work from this research at the 20th International Symposium held in Lisbon, Portugal, the Centre for Growth and International Business Cycle Research Conference held in Manchester, UK, and the World Congress of the Econometric Society held in Seattle, Washington, USA. Professor Adrian Pagan, who is an investigator, presented the research at Oxford and a number of European universities. As a result the business cycles research program is gaining international recognition.

The Centre has an important role to play both commercially and in contributing to public policy discussions. In this regard the review committee found that: Activities of the Centre have had a strong commercial focus and there have been useful inputs into public policy discussions. Given the quality and credibility of the research of recent years, the Centre has established a strong foundation for greater commercial, policy and media contributions in the future.

Unemployment: Modelling and Policy Analysis 2000 was also the first year of a major two-year ARC project on unemployment, in association with the Department of Family and Community Services, the Department of Employment, Workplace Relations and Small Business and the Productivity Commission. This project is being conducted by the Centre for Business Cycle Analysis in association with the Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies Program and also involves researchers from the Economics Department at the University of Melbourne. In 2000 a number of papers were produced which reviewed the state of knowledge about unemployment, and work commenced in the development of a range of modelling tools to be used in 2001.

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Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies The Relationship Between the Labour Market and Tax, Social Security and Workers Compensation A number of projects undertaken in 2000 related to the relationship between the labour market, the tax and social security system and workers compensation.

Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling of the Tax/Transfer System A major research partnership started in 1999 with the Department of Family and Community Services (DFACS) to develop the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS). MITTS is a behavioural microsimulation model of the Australian tax and social security system.

Professor John Creedy coordinated the project and Professor Alan Professor John Creedy and Professor Alan Duncan, a leading exponent of such modelling from the UK’s University Duncan. Leaders in the development of the MITTS of Nottingham and the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), has visited the model Melbourne Institute several times to lead the programming of the model.

Rosanna Scutella and Mark Harris provided valuable contributions.

MITTS examines the effects of income tax and transfer payments policy changes on individuals and households in Australia. A distinguishing feature of MITTS is that it models labour supply responses to changes in taxes and benefits. The simulator consists of two closely integrated models. A ‘static’ model, MITTS-A, examines the effects of a specified change in the direct tax and transfer system, assuming that labour supply, and hence pre-tax and transfer income, of each individual remains fixed. A ‘behavioural’ model, Three members of the MITTS research team: MITTS-B, allows for the effects of labour supply variations in response to Mr Hsien Kew, Ms Rosanna Scutella and changes in the tax and transfer system.

Dr Guyonne Kalb As well as completing the construction of the first version of the MITTS-A and MITTS-B, work was commenced on an ARC project to use the model to examine the efficiency and equity implications of a major reform of the tax/transfer system, i.e. to move to a basic income/flat tax system or other variants of negative income tax.

Analysis of the FaCS Longitudinal Administrative Data Base In 2000 four papers were produced in a project involving the analysis of the Department of Family and Community Services longitudinal administrative data base. These were “Means-tested benefits, incentives and earnings distributions”, “Participation and employment status of persons on more than minimum family payments”, “Repeated spells on benefits: an analysis of ‘churning’ using the FaCS longitudinal administrative data set” and “The relationship between the ‘frequency and length of spells on unemployment benefits’”.

Factors Affecting Return to Work After Injury, A Study for the Victorian WorkCover Authority The factors affecting the nature of claim behaviour and the opportunities for return to work among workers compensation claimants are examined in this project, using a sample of the Victorian WorkCover Authority’s administrative database. The work was undertaken by David Johnson and Tim Fry from Monash University. The administrative database provides a record of claimants and the circumstances of their claims over a period of 15 years. A multivariate analysis of the data was undertaken to isolate the independent effect of factors of interest. The multivariate Associate Professor analysis involved the construction of models in which first the probability of a claim occurring is David Johnson determined and then its likely duration or cost.

Household Survey Research Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey A major development during 2000 was the commencement of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey (HILDA). A comprehensive report on this project can be found on the following page.

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Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey Most industrial nations now conduct large-scale, representative household-based panel surveys collecting information about a wide range of social and economic topics (such as income, employment, family formation and health).

Australia, however, has been a notable exception. While longitudinal data collections do exist, they typically focus on relatively small sub-groups of the population, such as youth and immigrants. Moreover, these surveys typically follow sample members for relatively short periods.

Australian policy-makers and researchers thus do not have access to data that is both representative of the Australian population and provide information on the dynamic nature of events and how they interact in influencing the changing behaviour and fortunes of Australian households, families and individuals.

This is all about to change. In the second half of 2001 the first wave of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey will be conducted. Funded and initiated by the Department of Family and Community Services, the management and design of the HILDA Survey was awarded, following a public tender process, to a consortium led by the Melbourne Institute.

The project commenced in August 2000 with the first year devoted to the development and testing of a survey design. Key features of that design have been finalised. Most obviously, and following other international household panel studies, such as the British Household Panel Study and the German Socio-Economic Panel, the HILDA thus begins with a random sample of households and then tracks the members of those households over time. The initial sample at Wave 1 is expected to comprise somewhere upwards of 11,000 households.

The fieldwork has been sub-contracted to the market research organisation, ACNielsen. The first wave data collection will commence in late August 2001 and will continue until Christmas. Respondents will then be re-surveyed at similar times in 2002 and in 2003. While funding ceases with the third wave, it is hoped that further funding will be obtained to allow the annual survey process to continue indefinitely.

The importance of the data to both research and policy-making cannot be understated. There are, for example, a great many social and economic issues that can only be properly understood with panel data. Some of the phenomena that overseas household panel studies have helped illuminate include the dynamics of poverty and welfare dependence; growth in income inequality; impact of income support arrangements on work incentives; incidence, determinants and consequences of job mobility; consequences of family dissolution; and intergenerational transmission of socio-economic status.

It is thus expected the HILDA will become an increasingly important tool for both research and policy formation in Australia.

HILDA core research team: Ms Nicole Watson, Professor Mark Wooden and Mr Simon Freidin

Cover of the HILDA questionnaire

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International Social Science Survey and Research Database Facility In collaboration with Jonathan Kelley of the ANU, the Melbourne Institute continued its involvement with the International Social Science Survey, Australia, and associated household survey research. Mariah Evans was the main Institute employee associated with this venture.

A major development has been the construction of a research database facility using data from the past surveys.

Funded primarily by the ARC, Jonathan Kelley and Mariah Evans of the Melbourne Institute have coordinated this work in partnership with the Australian National University, Victoria University of Technology and La Trobe University. The project establishes a database of national social science surveys of household unit record files of data undertaken between 1984 and 1998 on economic, social and political variables with emphasis on the labour market and on attitudes, starting from a base of existing efforts within the collaborating institutions. It pools ten large, nationally representative samples of Australians (over 22,000 cases) from the International Social Science Surveys/Australia with over 300 variables.

The resulting database will enable the development of more effective comparisons through time and over household types by establishing concordances of classifications of economic, social and political variables, again, starting from existing work in the collaborating institutions.

Also funded primarily by the ARC, work commenced on the development of an International Economic and Social Unit-Record Database (IESUD). This is also a University of Melbourne project with support from the University of Tasmania, Victoria University of Technology, La Trobe University, Monash University, Curtin University, Swinburne University and the ARC. This project enhances the database described above by adding exactly comparable data from large, representative national samples of Britain and the USA (over 25,000 cases for both Britain Dr Jonathan Kelley and the USA). They include variables corresponding to the great majority of those available in the Australian data. Second the project adds exactly comparable data for Bulgaria, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Poland from the International Survey of Economic Attitudes.

Australian Social Monitor Four issues of the Australian Social Monitor were released in 2000. The journal monitors and analyses important social trends and attitudes, using data from various household surveys.

International Reform Monitor The Melbourne Institute is the Australian partner in an international forum for the discussion of interesting and current reforms in the fields of social policy, labour market policy and industrial relations. The forum is run by the Bertelsmann Foundation and provides the opportunity for Dr Mariah Evans international comparisons of experience and knowledge in social policy.

There are fifteen members of the forum, all from developed countries in Western Europe and the Pacific rim. Each country details current reforms in the areas above twice a year. The reforms are compiled into a non-technical monograph aimed at a broad audience of policy makers, academics, public servants, business people and other interested persons. The publication is distributed within the member countries and is also available on the web at www.reform-monitor.org. It has proved to be a valuable means of comparing social policy in the member countries with over 50,000 visits to the web site.

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Members provide two reports each year on policy reforms within their country. The group meets each year in to discuss the development of the project and to present findings on particular issues. David Johnson attended the 2000 meeting held in Berlin. In 2000 the Reform Monitor members also provided information on an additional topic, retirement funding. The issue was discussed at the annual meeting of the group.

Economics of Education

Associate Professor David Johnson

Returns to Investment in Higher Education A major project that continued in 2000 was an investigation of the returns to higher education. David Johnson and Peter Dawkins of the Melbourne Institute worked with Jeff Borland of the Economics Department and Ross Williams, Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Commerce to measure private social and government returns from investment in higher education. The project was sponsored by the Vice-Chancellor at the University of Melbourne.

The report found that higher education remains a good investment with the average Australian graduate earning almost $300,000 more over their lifetime than people who finish their education at the end of Year 12. The added income for graduates is calculated after costs such as lost income from being out of the workforce, HECS, and direct charges for books, have been taken out. This is equivalent to a 15% rate of return, making it a very good investment.

The Melbourne Institute report, “Returns to Investment in Higher Education”, also found the introduction of the HECS scheme, plus the taxation revenue on graduates’ higher incomes, means the government now makes a ‘profit’ on its university investment. That profit is currently around $2.7 billion annually – heading toward $4 billion by the end of the decade.

Economic Analysis in Relation to the Development of Higher Education Services in the Shepparton Area David Johnson and Anne Leahy undertook this report for the Development Office of the University of Melbourne. In the first part the role of economics in helping define regional policy was reviewed. The review suggested that many economic tools might be relevant but that care was required in their interpretation. The second part of the study provided a contemporary picture of the Goulburn region, its industries and people. The material on industrial structure defined an economy with a strong focus on agricultural and its immediate downstream industries, processing and manufacturing plants. Finally the study suggested a range of ways of estimating demand for prospective new higher education courses in the Shepparton area focussing particularly on demand from local students and including the undertaking of surveys of prospective students and the setting up of focus groups and interviews with prospective employers of graduates of the proposed courses.

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Other Labour Market Research Wage Flexibility Yi-Ping Tseng and Elizabeth Webster completed a paper estimating major determinants of change to an individuals earnings. Data was based on a survey of over 4000 individual householders across Australia. The relative importance of four types of factors: outside incomes, demand for labour, workers’ relative bargaining strength and category of wage contract are compared. Basic individual demographic characteristics (partial substitute variables for outside incomes) and some indicators of workers’ bargaining power provided most of the explanation for wage changes. Proxy variables for labour demand, while significant and correctly signed, were small in magnitude. Information on workplace characteristics and the individual’s work history were not available.

Dr Yi-Ping Tseng

Training for the Skilled Trades in Australia This project by Elizabeth Webster and collaborators at the Centre for Labour Market Research examined trends in occupational mismatch in the metal, building, vehicle and electrical trades and questioned whether the process of award restructuring which began in the late 1980s has created incentives for unskilled blue collar workers to pursue skill based career paths in the trades. In so doing, it also examined the reasons for high attrition rates by qualified workers from their trade, as well as the motives behind employers’ decisions to hire unqualified workers to do trade work. The study found that despite the general level of dissatisfaction with trade employment, training pathways for semi-and unskilled adults have become more prevalent since the early 1990s when the award restructuring process began. However, the numbers of people involved are small. There is reasonable evidence the structure and mode of operation of the trade training system has not been appropriate for the occupations it serves.

The Labour Market Effects of the Working Holiday Maker Scheme This current research topic aims to estimate the effects on the Australian labour market of the existing Working Holiday Maker Scheme and to make some estimates of the effects of unilaterally extending the scheme to other countries. Specifically, the issue of whether the scheme aggravates Australia’s unemployment problem, especially with respect to youth, will be addressed.

The Equity Effects of Labour Market Programs David Johnson and Elizabeth Webster presented comparative information on the types of people who benefit and lose from the provision of labour market programs. They found that expenditure on labour market programs, as they were constructed under Working Nation, favours people with more disadvantaged work histories and lower household incomes compared with an alternative of government spending on health and education.

Changes in Gender Wage Differentials in Taiwan This study by Yi-Ping Tseng addresses the possible bias in the cross-sectional comparison of gender wage differential over time. The approach based on cohort analysis is introduced to overcome the common problem in previous studies. Using pseudo panel data constructed from 22 consecutive cross-sections, the study shows that cohort analysis provides very different results from the results obtained by conventional methods.

Value of Fire Services A report was undertaken for the Melbourne Fire and Emergency Services Board by David Johnson. This report was concerned with the valuation of the services provided by fire and emergency services in metropolitan Melbourne. In particular, it included interviewed studies of fire brigades and similar organisations in Australia and overseas; developed a framework for the evaluation of the roles, functions, and outcomes of the fire brigade; and inspected data and assessed the feasibility of undertaking a quantitative evaluation of the costs and benefits of the fire brigade.

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Enterprise Performance Research In 2000, research in this part of the Institute was undertaken in three substantial projects, all built around the core theme of enterprise performance.

The Performance of Australian Enterprises: ARC SPIRT Project The performance of enterprises is a fundamantal determinant of living standards.

Dr Elizabeth Webster, The project examines the determinants of DIRECTOR OF THE innovation, productivity and profitability of ENTERPRISE Australian enterprises. Benchmark PERFORMANCE RESEARCH PROGRAM performance measures are also being produced against which Australian enterprises can be assessed. Most of the anlaysis is based upon data from two major databases: the IBISWorld panel data set and the ABS Business Longitudinal Survey.

This ARC project has been in collaboration with IBISWorld, Research team: Professor Peter Dawkins, Mr Michael the Victorian Department of State and Regional Development, Harris, Dr Mark Harris, Professor Mark Wooden, Mr Simon Productivity Commission, Australian Taxation Office and the Feeny, Dr Elizabeth Webster and Dr Yi-Ping Tseng Office of Small Business, DEWRSB. Research staff have included Mark Rogers, Simon Feeny, Peter Dawkins, Joanne Loundes, Yi-Ping Tseng, Mark Harris, Harry Bloch, Ted McDonald, Derek Bosworth and Michael Harris. By the end of 2000, 20 working papers had been produced and a further 11 were in production. Almost all of the working papers have been, or will be, published as chapters in books or as journal articles.

Research into Company Profit and Tax Performance Simon Feeny, Mark Harris, and Joanne Loundes undertook company level ‘risk analysis’ for the Australian Taxation Office. Their analysis identifies companies that are paying too much, or too little; tax given their other observed characteristics. Four research reports were completed during 2000: Modelling and Benchmarking Profitability: An ATO-Melbourne Institute Project; Modelling the Dollar Profits of Australian Tax Entities: An ATO-Melbourne Institute Project; Modelling the Ms Joanne Loundes Effective Tax Rates of Australian Tax Entities: An ATO-Melbourne Institute Project ANOTHER MEMBER OF THE and Modelling Reconciliation Items: An ATO-Melbourne Institute Project.

TEAM

Innovation in Large Companies The Innovation Scoreboard continued to analyse the links between innovation and firm performance using R&D expenditure and intellectual property data; that is, patents, trademarks and designs. The R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard 2000 was able to present data on the innovative activities of large Australian firms over the last three years.

Our research showed that investment in R&D and intellectual property had strong links with the share market value of firms. The techniques used also enabled the compilation of an innovation index for companies. This index was a weighted sum of R&D, patent, trademark and design activity where the weights were given by statistical analysis between the activities and market value. The index, therefore, provided a method of assessing overall innovative effort. The innovation index appeared in the Melbourne Institute’s R&D R&D and Intellectual and Intellectual Property Scoreboard 2000. The Scoreboard is produced in Property Scoreboard 2000 collaboration with IP Australia and IBISWorld and was released during a Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in November 2000.

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CONTRIBUTIONS TO POLICY ANALYSIS AND DEBATES One of the Melbourne Institute’s strategic objectives was to contribute strongly to economic policy analysis, discussion and development in Australia. Examples of these contributions in 2000 included: • The Institute was contracted by the Department of Family and Community Services to provide social policy research services over the next four years to the value of approximately $750,000 per year.

• Peter Dawkins was a member of the Welfare Reform Reference Group that released its final report in August.

• The Melbourne Institute hosted two seminars in February and May that were an official part of the Welfare Review process.

• The Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum and Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in April focused on the Welfare Review and were very well attended. In June, the focus of the forums was on the macroeconomic outlook and, in October, on industrial relations reform. The Federal Minister and Shadow Minister for Industrial Relations were speakers as well as Professor Mark Wooden and Professor Ross Garnaut. The last forums for the year in December were on the topic of innovation policy.

• David Johnson was a member of the Reference Group for the Review of the 8% Limit on Liquor Licence Holdings.

• Peter Dawkins presented a paper at the Reserve Bank’s annual conference in July on labour market developments in the 1990s.

• Mark Wooden contributed a chapter on industrial relations reform to a book edited by Peter Lloyd, John Nieuwenhuysen and Margaret Mead, Creating an Environment for Australia’s Growth.

• Mark Wooden presented his inaugural lecture on industrial relations reform.

• Peter Dawkins contributed a chapter to the book, Welfare Reform in Australia, edited by Peter Saunders (AIFS).

• Peter Dawkins was part of a committee formed to run a conference on the economics of health and health policy with the aim of fostering a dialogue between health economists and mainstream economists.

• David Johnson is the Australian representative of the International Reform Monitor, sponsored by Bertelsmann, which is an international policy focussed research group concerned with economic and social reforms. In 2000, he attended the annual meeting in Berlin that dealt specifically with pension arrangements.

• Mark Wooden was a member of the External Reference Group for the Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs / CSIRO Future Scenarios Project.

• Mark Wooden appeared as an expert witness before both the Australian Industrial Relations on the casual employment test case and the NSW Industrial Relations Commission in the Equal Remuneration Principle Test Case.

• The “Policy Forum” section of the Australian Economic Review provides a major avenue for contribution to policy debate on economic matters. In 2000 there were three policy forums on “Merger Policy in Australia”, “Population Policy” and “Welfare for Indigenous Australians”.

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The Australian, 26 January 2000

Family must be at the heart of the welfare policy On Rosanna Scutella’s research into the economic influences on married women who return to the workforce The Sunday Age, 31 January 2000

Is ‘big’ good for a nation?

On the results of How Big Business Performs: Private Performance and Public Policy, edited by Peter Dawkins, Michael Harris and Stephen King The Australian Financial Review, 26 April 2000

Participation can pay in welfare reform Peter Dawkins on the Welfare Reform Interim Report The Australian Financial Review, 15 December 2000

Slower growth expected to curb inflation On the findings of Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Inflationary Expectations The Australian, 26 July 2000

Degrees earn top rewards all around Peter Dawkins on the higher education report UniNews, 7 August 2000

Hard head, soft heart, win FaCS contract On the Institute’s selection to conduct strategic social policy research for the Department of Family and Community Services The Age, 13 August 2000

Consumers surprise with positive mind-set Results of Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment after the introduction of the GST The Australian Financial Review, 15 August 2000

To press on with IR reform may be safer Extracts of Mark Wooden’s inaugural lecture on industrial relations reform The Australian Financial Review, 22 November 2000

Reform aims for greater benefit Peter Dawkins on increasing work benefits to assist unemployed back to work

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MELBOURNE INSTITUTE BUSINESS ECONOMICS FORUM In 2000, the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Melbourne continued to generate considerable interest. Membership held steady at 25 members.

The four quarterly forums were well attended. Mr Tony Cole was the Chairman of all but for one forum when Mr Phil Ruthven, another member of the Institute’s Advisory Board, was the Guest Chairman. Breakfasts were held on 6 April, 15 June and 13 October, as well as a luncheon on 21 November, at the Hotel Sofitel, Grand Hyatt or Le Meridien at Rialto in Melbourne. At each forum, the Melbourne Institute’s forecasts were presented and discussed, and special topics were canvassed such as welfare reform, macroeconomic outlook, industrial relations, innovation and R&D. As well as Melbourne Institute researchers, a number of external commentators were involved in the forums. These included Professor Dr Peter Summers delivering the Derek Bosworth (Manchester School of Management), Mr Paul Braddick (ANZ), quarterly forecasts Mr Bill Evans (Westpac), Professor Ross Garnaut AO (ANU), Mr Rick Gould (IP Australia), Dr Rod Maddock (Business Council of Australia) Ms Elizabeth Morgan (Morgan, Disney and Associates), Mr Michael Raper (ACOSS) and The Hon Peter Reith MP.

Mr Don Harding speaking about retail sales at quarterly breakfast 2/00 on the macroeconomic outlook

Mr Tony Cole, Chairman

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Mr Phil Ruthven, Guest Chairman

Members of the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum Gold

Associate

Australia Post Business Council of Australia City of Melbourne Department of Premier and Cabinet Department of State and Regional Development Department of Treasury and Finance General Motors - Holdens Automotive Mercantile Mutual Reserve Bank of Australia Faculty of Economics and Commerce, The University of Melbourne Victorian Workcover Authority Westpac Banking Corporation William M. Mercer

ANZ Banking Group CEDA IBIS Business Information National Competition Council National Institute of Accountants Productivity Commission Shell Australia Urban Land Corporation

Individual Ansett Australia Childrens’ Welfare Association of Victoria County Investment Management CPA Australia Institute for Private Enterprise

In 2001, as outlined in the above section "Outlook for 2001 and 2002", we will commence the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Sydney.

Professor Peter Dawkins, Ms Elizabeth Morgan and Mr Michael Raper at quarterly breakfast 1/00 on welfare reform

Western Australian Business Economics Forum in Perth (joint venture with IRIC, Curtin University of Technology) Australia Post BankWest CCD Australia City of Perth Curtin Business School, Curtin University of Technology Department of Land Administration Department of Productivity and Labour Relations Department of Resources and Development Evans and Tate Graduate School of Business John Coombes and Co

Landcorp Leader of the Opposition, West Australian Parliament Lotteries Western Australia Office Gas Access Regulation Reserve Bank of Australia WA Treasury Department Western Power Corporation Westralia Airports Corporation Woodside Energy

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MELBOURNE INSTITUTE PUBLIC ECONOMICS FORUM

Mr Tony Cole, CO-CHAIRMAN

Mr Ted Evans AC, CO-CHAIRMAN UNTIL HIS RETIREMENT AS SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY

Dr Michael Keating AC, CO-CHAIRMAN

In 2000 the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra continued into its second year and generated considerable interest. Membership increased from 9 members in 1999 to 17 members in 2000.

The four quarterly forums were well attended. Mr Ted Evans chaired these forums until his retirement as Secretary of the Treasury in 2001 when the new Secretary of the Treasury, Dr Ken Henry, took the chair. Luncheons were held on 11 April, 13 June, 10 October and 28 November at Parliament House, Old Parliament House and the Hyatt Hotel Canberra. At each luncheon, the Melbourne Institute’s news was presented, and special topics were canvassed such as welfare reform, macroeconomic outlook, industrial relations, innovation and R&D. In addition to Melbourne Institute researchers, guest speakers included Mr Gary Banks (Productivity Commission), The Hon Arch Bevis MP, Mr Bill Evans (Westpac), Professor Ross Garnaut AO (ANU), Mr Ian Heath (IP Australia), Dr Rod Maddock (Business Council of Australia), Mr Patrick McClure (Mission Australia), Ms Elizabeth Morgan (Morgan, Disney and Associates), Dr Mike Nahan (Institute of Public Affairs), Mr Mark Paterson (Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry), Mr Michael Raper (ACOSS) and Mr Chris Richardson (Access Economics).

Members Gold Australian Taxation Office Department of Family and Community Services Department of Health and Aged Care Department of Industry, Science and Resources Department of the Parliamentary Library Medibank Private

Associate Australian Bureau of Statistics Bureau of Transport Economics Department of Finance and Administration Productivity Commission Public Service and Merit Protection Commission

Professor Peter Dawkins, Dr Mike Nahan, Dr Rod Maddock, Mr Michael Keating AC, Mr Gary Banks and Mr Ian Heath at quarterly luncheon 4/00 on innovation policy

Individual Australian Bureau of Statistics Department of Employment, Workplace Relations and Small Business Department of the Parliamentary Reporting Department of Treasury and Infrastructure New Zealand High Commission Queensland Investment Corporation 30

Quarterly luncheon 3/00 on industrial relations reform

TWO DAY CONFERENCE ON WELFARE REFORM In 2000, Peter Dawkins was appointed a member of the Reference Group on Welfare Reform, established by the Minister for Family and Community Services, Senator Jocelyn Newman MP. In the course of the work of the Reference Group, the Melbourne Institute hosted two seminars to discuss relevant issues with a range of academics as well as experts from government, business and the community sector, and featured the topic of welfare reform in its Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forums and Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forums. On Thursday 9 – Friday 10 November 2000, the work culminated in a major, two day conference jointly hosted with the Department of Family and Community Services.

The aims of the conference were to: • Facilitate participants’ understanding of the reforms proposed by the report; • Provide a US, UK, NZ and OECD perspective on welfare reform and the subsequent lessons for Australia; Conference proceedings in progress • Provide interested parties with a forum to discuss and debate both the findings and recommendations of the report and issues surrounding welfare reform more generally.

The sessions of the conference covered the following topics: • The Welfare Reform Reference Group’s Final Report • Welfare Reform: International Evidence • Welfare to Work: Evidence on Policies Aiming to Increase Work Incentives in Britain and New Zealand • Panel Discussion of Day One with Special Reference to the Implications for Australia International speakers: Mr Peter Scherer of the OECD, Mr David Butler of the Manpower • Welfare to Work: Options for Demonstration Research Corporation, Mr David Kalisch of the Department of Family and Reforming the Income Support Community Services and Professor Bob Goodin of the Australian National University System in Australia • Mutual Obligation • Outlook of The Minister for Family and Community Services • Service Delivery Issues and Social Partnerships • Outlook of The Shadow Minister for Family and Community Services The second day concluded with a panel discussion of the future directions for welfare reform.

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The Melbourne Institute’s researchers were joined by members of the Reference Group on Welfare Reform and other international experts on welfare reform from the OECD, the US, UK and New Zealand and a number of prominent Australian academics and representatives of business and the community sector. Speakers and discussants included: Dr Bruce Bradbury (UNSW) Mr David Butler (Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation) Professor Peter Dawkins (The University of Melbourne) Professor Alan Duncan (University of Nottingham) Father Nic Frances (Brotherhood of St Laurence) Professor Bob Goodin (ANU) Professor Bob Gregory (ANU) Mr David Kalisch (Department of Family and Community Services) Senator Meg Lees MP (Leader of the Australian Democrats) Professor Mark Lyons (University of Technology, Sydney) Dr Rod Maddock (Business Council of Australia) Associate Professor Tim Maloney (University of Auckland) Associate Professor Alison McClelland (La Trobe University) Mr Patrick McClure (Mission Australia) Ms Elizabeth Morgan (Morgan, Disney and Associates) Senator Jocelyn Newman MP (Minister for Family and Community Services) Mr Michael Raper (ACOSS) Professor Peter Saunders (UNSW) Mr Peter Scherer (OECD) Professor Judith Sloan (Productivity Commission) Senator Jocelyn Newman MP speaking at the welfare Mr Ian Spicer (National Disability Advisory Council) reform conference as the Minister for Family and Ms Dahle Suggett (Allen Consulting Group) Community Services Mr Wayne Swan MP (Shadow Minister for Family and Community Services) Mr David Thompson (Jobs Australia) Professor Anna Yeatman (Macquarie University) A large delegation of 380 people attended at the conference, representing various interested organisations from non-profit, government and business sectors. The papers presented at the conference were placed on the Melbourne Institute’s website and the topic was further addressed in a “Policy Forum” of the Australian Economic Review in 2001.

Mr Wayne Swan MP, Shadow Minister for Family and Community Services, was a speaker at the conference also

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PUBLICATIONS BY SUBSCRIPTION Melbourne Institute Economic and Social Journals Australian Economic Review in 2000 Articles and Submissions The format of the Australian Economic Review continued with the style that has been developed over recent years: the ‘Contributed Articles’ section continued to attract a strong rate of submission; ‘Policy Forums’ were published in three issues in 2000, and included ‘Merger Policy in Australia’, ‘Population Policy’, and ‘Welfare for Indigenous Australians’.

Each issue contained a ‘For the Student’ article: ‘Property Rights and the Impact on Resource Allocation and Welfare: A Diagrammatic Exposition’, ‘Lessons from the Market Place for Health and Human Services’, ‘Movements over Time in the Unemployment Rate in Australia’, and ‘Basic Game Theory’. Each issue included a ‘Data Survey’ article: ‘The Business Longitudinal Survey’, ‘Regional Capital Stock Data for Australia’, ‘Dating Changes in Monetary Policy in Australia’, and ‘The Papua New Guinea Household Survey’.

The Australian Economic In 2000, the Review published 39 articles; 41 articles were published in 1999. The size of Review the Review remained much the same with a total of 387 pages, similar to the 422 pages in 1999. In Table 1 we show the distribution of articles by type for the last five years.

In 2000 we received 40 submissions in the Contributed Articles section, less than the previous year’s 54 submissions. Table 2 shows the number of submissions for the last five years. The acceptance rate for papers that have been published has been 35 per cent over the past five years (papers published as a percentage of submissions).

Table 1: Published Articles in 1996, 1997, 1998 1999 and 2000 Type of Article

1996

1997

Invited Articles Contributed Articles Policy Forum Data Surveys For the Student Pages

2 13 15 5 4 472

0 18 19 3 4 466

1998

0 16 19 2 4 444

1999

2000

1 15 19 2 4 422

1 17 13 4 4 387

Table 2: Submissions in 1996, 1997, 1998 1999 and 2000* Papers

Brought forward from previous year** Submissions during year Decisions made Accepted: Published Accepted: In queue Rejected/withdrawn Resubmit In process

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

22 36 58

23 58 81

31 38 69

29 54 83

37 40 77

13 3 22 16 4 58

18 4 32 15 12 81

16 3 24 11 15 69

15 3 31 12 22 83

17 2 30 11 17 77

*Contributed articles only **Sum of acceptances in queue, resubmissions and articles in process

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Australian Social Monitor The Australian Social Monitor aims to monitor and analyse important social trends and attitudes. The Australian Social Monitor is published with support from the International Social Science Surveys/Australia and ANUTECH at the Australian National University.

Between us several important social and economic surveys are conducted. These include the IsssA which is Australia’s leading academic survey and co-founder of the 34-nation International Social Survey Programme.

Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends The Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends is sponsored

by William M. Mercer Pty Ltd and provides an authoritative analysis of international, national and state economic environments with a particular focus on the state economies and on reading the business cycle. In addition, each issue covers a special topic considered to be of particular interest. The special topics covered in 2000 included labour market issues in welfare reform, international economic indicators, industrial relations reform and innovations in Australian enterprises.

Australian Social Monitor

Melbourne Institute Economic and Social Indicators Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity Published monthly the Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity examines movements in leading, coincident and lagging indicators of economic activity in Australian, together with comparative data from overseas. It also includes a quarterly leading index of inflation. Indices of economic activity are designed to enhance the decision making process of financial and business managers by anticipating and identifying turning points in the economy. Each index blends several variables that reflect different aspects of the economy; their combination is intended to give a more representative picture than any one indicator would by itself.

Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends

Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment The Consumer Sentiment Index is the average of five responses on consumers' evaluation of their household financial situation over the past year, the coming year and the next five years, anticipations of economic conditions over the coming year and the next five years and a view on buying conditions for major household items, assessments of future unemployment are also recorded. Each quarter, consumers are also surveyed on their views on buying conditions for cars and dwellings, the wisest place for savings and economic news recall. This report is produced monthly.

Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity

Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment (NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia) Each quarter we present the same consumer sentiment data as in the Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment (except news recall data) on consumer sentiment for NSW, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment

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Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations The Melbourne Institute Consumer Inflationary Expectations measures are designed to represent the average householder’s expected rate of consumer price rises over the coming twelve months. The survey is a direct measure of inflationary expectations as consumers are surveyed on whether and by how much they believe prices will go up or down. The report is produced monthly.

Poverty Lines: Australia Poverty Lines: Australia is a quarterly newsletter that updates the "Henderson Poverty Line" as defined in the 1973 Commonwealth Commission of Inquiry into Poverty. The Poverty Lines are standard reference material for those concerned with social welfare policy in Australia. The income levels of various sized families are used to ascertain when and where a poverty situation occurs.

Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations

Melbourne Institute Wages Report The Wages Survey records employees (self-reported) wage changes over the previous twelve-month period. This survey has been designed to capture the growth in wage rates.

The report is produced quarterly.

Other Melbourne Institute Publications produced in 2000 The R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard 2000: Benchmarking Innovation Melbourne Institute Wages in Australian Enterprises Report This publication is the most comprehensive to date on the innovative activities of large Australian enterprises. It provides an invaluable information source for benchmarking and competitor analysis. The innovative activities covered by the report contain the latest available information on the level of R&D and applications for intellectual property (patents, trademarks and designs). The report includes an innovation index, ranking Australia’s most innovative firms, R&D expenditure and intensity for parent companies, the level and intensity of intellectual property applications (patents, trademarks and designs) for parent companies, and industry rankings (all measures combined). This is the third report produced in this series.

R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard 2000

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STAFF PUBLICATIONS, SEMINARS, PRESENTATIONS AND MEDIA COVERAGE Staff Publications Books, Monographs and Published Research Reports Blandy, R., Dockery, M., Hawke, A. and Webster, E., “Does Training Pay? Evidence from Australian Enterprise”, Leabrook, National Centre for Vocational Education Research, 2000, 57pp.

Borland, J., Dawkins, P., Johnson, D.T. and Williams, R., “Returns to Investment in Higher Education”, The Melbourne Economics of Higher Education Research Program, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 1: 56pp.

Feeny, S. and Rogers, M., “Recent Trends in the Innovative Activities of Large Australian Firms”, R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 2000): 32pp.

Harding, G., “Life After Graduation: Our 1998 Graduates in 1999”, Life After Graduation, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (April): 84pp.

Harding, G., “Employer Feedback on Quality of University Graduates: Report for External Use and for Survey Participants”, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (March): 58pp.

Harding, G., “Employer Feedback on Quality of University Graduates: Executive Summary”, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (March): 6pp.

Johnson, D.J., Harris, M.N. and Scutella, R., “Participation and Employment Status of Persons of More Than Minimum Family Payments”, Canberra, Department of Family and Community Services, 2000, 40pp.

Wooden, M., The Transformation of Australian Industrial Relations, Sydney, Federation Press, 2000, 238+xvpp.

Contributions to Books Dawkins, P., “Is a Five Per Cent Unemployment Rate Target Achievable for Australia and How?” in J. Mangan ed., Understanding and Reducing Unemployment, Brisbane, Queensland Treasury, 2000, pp159-174.

Dawkins, P., “Labour Market Issues in Welfare Reform”, in P. Saunders ed., Reforming the Australian Welfare State, Melbourne, Australian Institute of Family Studies, 2000, pp224-249.

Harding, D. and Pagan, A., “Knowing the Cycle”, in R.E. Backhouse and Salanti, A. ed., Macroeconomics and the Real World, New York, Oxford University Press, 2000, pp23-41.

Johnson, D.T., “Australia - Has it Weathered the Crisis?”, in T. Van Hoa ed., The Social Impact of the Asian Financial Crisis, London, Palgrave, 2000, pp123-137.

Summers, P.M., “The Asian Crisis and Australia’s Export Sector”, in T. Van Hoa ed., The Social Impact of the Asian Financial Crisis, London, Palgrave, 2000, pp139-155.

Webster, E., “What Role for Labour Market Programs?”, in S. Bell ed., The Unemployment Crisis in Australia. Which Way Out?, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2000, pp234-251.

Wooden, M. and VandenHervel, A., “Diversity in Employment Arrangements”, in J. Mangan ed., Understanding and Reducing Employment: a National and State Perspective, Brisbane, Queensland Government Press, 2000, pp69-84.

36

Refereed Journal Articles Bakker, A. and Creedy, J., “Macroeconomic Variables and Income Distribution Conditional Modelling with the Generalised Exponential”, Journal of Income Distribution, North Holland, Elsevier Science, 2000, 9: 183-197.

Creedy, J., “Measuring Welfare Changes and the Excess Burden of Taxation”, Bulletin of Economic Research, Oxford, Blackwell, 2000, 52(1): 1-47.

Creedy, J., “Evaluating Income Tax Changes Using Cross-Sectional and Lifetime Income”, Hacienda Publica Espanola, Madrid, Institute of Financial Studies, 2000, 152(1): 29-38.

Creedy, J., “The Growth of Social Expenditure and Population Ageing”, Economic Papers, Melbourne, Economic Society of Australia, 2000, 19(4): 15-32.

Creedy, J. and Dixon, R., “Relative Welfare Losses and Imperfect Competition in New Zealand”, New Zealand Economic Papers, New Zealand, The New Zealand Association of Economists, 2000, 34(2): 269-286.

Creedy, J. and Martin, C., “Carbon Taxation, Fuel Substitution and Welfare in Australia”, The Australian Economic Review, Oxford, Blackwell, 2000, 33(1): 32-48.

Creedy, J. and Van de ven, J., “Retirement Incomes: Private Savings Versus Social Transfers”, The Manchester School, Oxford, Blackwell, 2000, 68(5): 539-551.

Cully, M., VandenHeuvel, A., Curtain, R. and Wooden, M., “Participation in, and Barriers to, Training: the Experience of Older Australians”, Australasian Journal on Ageing, Melbourne, Council on Ageing, 2000, 19(4): 172-179.

Evans, M.D.R., “Danger on the Job?”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 2(6): 147.

Evans, M.D.R., “Informal Job Training: How Many Take Courses and Who Are They?”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 3(2): 58-60.

Evans, M.D.R., “Smoking, Sex and Class”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 2(6): 125-133.

Evans, M.D.R., “Women’s Participation in the Labour Force: Ideals and Behaviour”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 3(2): 49-57.

Evans, M.D.R. and Kelley, J., “Charity Work: International Differences and Australian Trends”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 1(3): 15-23.

Evans, M.D.R. and Kelley, J., “Cultural Resources and Educational Success: the Beaux Arts Versus Scholarly Culture”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 3(2): 41-48.

Evans, M.D.R. and Kelley, J., “Does Mothers’ Employment Affect Children’s Education?”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 1(3): 6-14.

Evans, M.D.R., Kelley, J. and Hayes, B.C., “Family Values and Labor Force Participation: Ireland in International Perspective”, Gender Issues, 2000, 18(1): 51-87.

Feeny, S. and Rogers, M., “Market Share and Concentration in Firm Profitability: Implications for Competition Policy”, Economic Analysis and Policy, St Lucia, Economic Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2000, 30(2): 115-132.

Fisher, L.A., Huh, H. and Summers, P.M., “Structural Identification of Permanent Shocks in VEC Models: a Generalization”, Journal of Macroeconomics, Louisiana, Louisiana State University Press, 2000, 22(1): 53-68.

Harris, M.N. and Matyas, L., “Performance of the Operational Wansbeek-Bekker Estimator for Dynamic Panel Data Models”, Applied Economics Letters, London, Routledge, 2000, 7(3): 149-153.

Henry, O.T. and Summers, P.M., “Australian Economic Growth: Nonlinearities and International Influences”, The Economic Record, Melbourne, Economic Society of Australia, 2000, 76(235): 365-373.

Jensen, B. and Littler, C., “Downsizing in Australia”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 2(6): 134-138.

Jensen, B. and Seltzer, A., “Neighbourhood and Family Effects in Educational Progress”, The Australian Economic Review, Oxford, Blackwell, 2000, 33(1): 17-31.

Johnson, D.T., “GST: the Give Some Time Tax”, Australian Quarterly, Balmain, The Australian Institute of Political Science, 2000, 72(3): 10-11.

37

Kelley, J., “Equal Opportunities or Equal Outcomes?”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 3(2): 36-40.

Kelley, J. and Evans, M.D.R., “Changing Attitudes Towards Trade Unions in Australia: 1984-1999”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 3(1): 1-5.

Kelley, J. and Evans, M.D.R., “Attitudes Towards Trade Unions: Sources of Support and Opposition in Australia”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 3(2): 29-35.

VandenHeuvel, A. and Wooden, M., “Immigrants’ Labour Market Experience in the Early Settlement Years”, Australian Bulletin of Labour, Adelaide, National Institute of Labour Studies, 2000, 26(1): 59-69.

Webster, E., “The Growth of Intangible Enterprise Investment in Australia”, Information Economics and Policy, Amsterdam, Elsevier, 2000, 12(1): 1-25.

Webster, E. and Summers, P.M., “The Effect of Labour Market Programs on Wage Inflation”, Journal of Industrial Relations, Sydney, University of Sydney, 2000, 42(3): 383-397.

Wooden, M., “Diversity in Employment Arrangements”, Queensland Economic Review, Brisbane, Queensland Treasury, 2000, (3): 16-19.

Wooden, M., “The Changing Skill Composition of Labour Demand”, Australian Bulletin of Labour, Adelaide, National Institute of Labour Studies, 2000, 26(3): 191-198.

Wooden, M. and Hawke, A., “Unions and Employment Growth: Panel Data Evidence”, Industrial Relations: a Journal of Economy and Society, Malden, Blackwell, 2000, 39(1): 88-107.

Other Journal Articles Dawkins, P., “Special Topic: Labour Market Issues in Welfare Reform”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(1): 14-27.

Feeny, S., “The R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard 2000: Benchmarking Innovation in Australian Enterprises”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(4): 15-16.

Harding, D., “Editorial”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): iii-iv.

Harding, D., “Evaluation of Melbourne Institute Forecasts”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): 15-17.

Harding, D., “Spotlight on Exchange Rates”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(3): 21-28.

Harding, D. and Huh, H., “Australia: Outcomes and Outlook”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): 1-12.

Harding, D. and Huh, H., “Forecasts for the States and Territories”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(1): 10-12.

Harding, D. and Huh, H., “Forecasts for the States and Territories”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): 18-22.

Harding, D. and Huh, H., “International Economic Indicators”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(1): 7-9.

Harding, D. and Huh, H., “United States”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): 13-14.

Harding, D. and Summers, P., “Australia: Outcomes and Outlook”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(3): 1-6.

Harding, D. and Summers, P.M., “Editorial”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(1): iii-iv.

Harding, D. and Summers, P.M., “Editorial”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(3): iii-iv.

Huh, H., “International Economic Indicators”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): 23-26.

38

Leahy, A. and Summers, P.M., “Australia: Outcomes and Outlook”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(4): 1-5.

Leahy, A. and Summers, P.M., “Forecasts for the States and Territories”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(4): 8-14.

Leahy, A. and Summers, P.M., “United States”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(4): 6-7.

Summers, P.M., “Editorial”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(4): iii-iv.

Summers, P.M., “Forecasts for the States and Territories”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(3): 7-13.

Summers, P.M., “Potential Effects of the GST and their Implications for Monetary Policy”, Econochat, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (14): 5-9.

Summers, P.M., Harding, D. and Huh, H., “Australia and the United States: Outcomes and Outlook”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(1): 1-6.

Wooden, M., “How Healthy is the Labour Market?”, CEDA Bulletin, Melbourne, CEDA, 2000, (October): 72.

Wooden, M., “Industrial Relations Reform: Do the Critics Have a Case?”, Review, Melbourne, The Institute of Public Affairs, 2000, 52(3): 14-15.

Wooden, M., “The Labour Market in 1999: the Year in Review”, Australian Bulletin of Labour, Adelaide, National Institute of Labour Studies, 2000, 26(1): 3-10.

Wooden, M., “Special Topic: Industrial Relations Reform - the Unfinished Agenda”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(3): 14-20.

Conference Proceedings Creedy, J. and Duncan, A., “Behavioural Microsimulation Methods for Policy Analysis”, paper presented at “Taxes, Transfers and Labour Market Responses: What Can Microsimulation Tell Us?” Conference, Dublin, 14 December 1998, in T. Callan ed., Taxes, Transfers and Labour Market Responses: What Can Microsimulation Tell Us?, Dublin, The Economic and Social Research Institute, 2000, pp23-58.

Dawkins, P., “The Australian Labour Market in the 1990s”, in D. Gruen and Shrestha, S. ed., The Australian Economy in the 1990s, Sydney, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2000, pp316-360.

Johnson, D.T., “Discussant”, paper presented at “Achieving Better Regulation of Services” Conference, Canberra, 2627 June 2000, in G. Banks and Findlay, C. ed., Achieving Better Regulation of Services, Canberra, AusInfo, 2000, pp278-284.

Working Papers, Indicator Reports and Unpublished Reports Alexander, G., Nix, T., Dawkins, P., Summers, P. and Loundes, J., “Retail Probe”, Sydney, Idea Works, 2000, (February, May, August, November): 42pp.

Chotikapanich, D. and Creedy, J., “Bayesian estimation of social welfare and tax progressivity measures”, The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (751), 21pp.

Chotikapanich, D. and Creedy, J., “Bayesian estimation of Atkinson inequality measures”, The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (766), 21pp.

Creedy, J., “Starting research”, The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (757), 16pp.

Creedy, J., “TaxTrans: computer assisted learning software for the analysis of taxes and transfers in general and partial equilibrium”, The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (762), 37pp.

39

Creedy, J., “Exact Welfare Measurement Using Mashallian Demand Functions”, The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (756): 22pp.

Creedy, J., “Labour Supply and Welfare with Piecewise Linear Budget Constraints: an Introduction”, The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (755): 28pp.

Creedy, J., “Tax Models and Their Uses”, The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (747): 30pp.

Creedy, J., Duncan, A., Harris, M.N. and Scutella, R., “Wage Functions: Australian Estimates Using the Income Distribution Survey”, The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (761): 24pp.

Creedy, J. and Scutella, R., “Means-Tested Benefits, Incentives and Earnings Distribution”, The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (752): 26pp.

Creedy, J. and Wurzbacher, A.D., “The economic value of a forested catchment with timber, water and carbon sequestration benefits” The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (753), 27pp.

Dawkins, P., Lambert, S., Dixon, P. and Rimmer, M., “A Wage-Tax Trade-Off to Reduce Employment”, New Directions, Melbourne, Business Council of Australia, 2000, (4): 66pp.

Feeny, S., “Determinants of Profitability: An Empirical Investigation Using Australian Tax Entities”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(1): 32pp.

Feeny, S., Harris, M.N. and Loundes, J., “A Dynamic Panel Analysis of the Profitability of Australian Tax Entities”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(22): 26pp.

Fry, T.R.L. and Harris, M.N., “A Model for Ordered Data with Clustering of Observations”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): 30pp.

Harding, D., “Mercantile Mutual - Melbourne Institute Household Saving Report”, Melbourne, Mercantile Mutual, 2000, (March): 15pp.

Harding, D., “Monitoring the GST”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, (September, October): 34pp.

Harding, D. and Hammill, M., “Mercantile Mutual - Melbourne Institute Household Saving Report”, Melbourne, Mercantile Mutual, 2000, (June, September, December): 16pp.

Harding, D. and Hammill, M., “Monitoring the GST”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, (May, June, July, August): 32pp.

Harding, D. and Leahy, A., “Westpac - Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, (184-186): 15pp.

Harris, M.N. and Feeny, S., “Habit Persistence in Effective Tax Rates: Evidence Using Australian Tax Entities”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(13): 23pp.

Harris, M.N., Koonya, L. and Matyas, L., “Modelling the Impact of Environmental Regulations on Bilateral Trade Flows: OECD, 1990-1996”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(11): 22pp.

Harris, M.N., Macquarie, L.R. and Siecles, A.J., “A Comparison of Alternative Estimators for Binary Panel Probity Models”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(3): 28pp.

Huh, H., “Westpac - Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, (175-183): 28pp.

Johnson, D.J., “Poverty Lines: Australia”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, (March, June, September, December): 4pp.

Knights, S., Harris, M.N. and Loundes, J., “Dynamic Relationships in the Australian Labour Market: Heterogeneity and State Dependence”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(6): 28pp.

40

Leahy, A., “Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, (January-December): 3pp.

Leahy, A., “Westpac - Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, (March, June, September, December): 11pp.

Leahy, A., “Westpac - Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, (January-December): 4pp.

Lofts, C. and Loundes, J., “Foreign Ownership, Foreign Competition and Innovation in Australian Enterprises”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(20): 17pp.

Loundes, J., “Management and Industrial Relations Practices and Outcomes in Australian Workplaces”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(12): 26pp.

Loundes, J. and Scutella, R., “Consumer Sentiment and Australian Consumer Spending”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(21): 18pp.

Matyas, L., Koonya, L. and Harris, M.N., “Modelling Export Activity of Eleven APEC Countries”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(5): 18pp.

Rogers, M. and Tseng, Y., “Analysing Firm-Level Labour Productivity Using Survey Data”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(10): 22pp.

Summers, P.M., “Labour Market Analysis with VAR Models”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(19): 19pp.

Tseng, Y., “Melbourne Institute Wages Report: Quarterly Report”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, (February, May, August, November): 8pp.

Webster, E., “The Effects of Wages on Aggregate Employment: A Brief Summary of Empirical Studies”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(14): 20pp.

Webster, E. and Harding, G., “Outsourcing Public Employment Services: The Australian Experience”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(4): 36pp.

Webster, E. and Tseng, Y., “The Determinants of Relative Wage Change in Australia”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(23): 36pp.

Staff Seminars and Presentations Dawkins, P., “Options for Reforming the Income Support System in Australia”, paper presented at the “Welfare Reform” conference, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 10 November 2000.

Dawkins, P., “Repeated Spells on Benefits: An Analysis of ‘Churning’ Using the FaCS Longitudinal Administrative Data Set”, paper presented at the "Panel Data and Policy" conference, Canberra, Department of Family and Community Services, 3 May 2000.

Dawkins, P., “The Australian Labour Market in the 1990s”, paper presented at “the Australian Economy in the 1990s” conference, Sydney, Reserve Bank of Australia, 24-25 July 2000.

Dawkins, P., “Measuring the Success of Social Policy the Case of Welfare Reform”, paper presented at Social Policy seminar, Melbourne, Institute of Public Administration (Victorian Division), 18 October 2000.

Duncan, A., “Employment Incentives and In-Work Benefits in the United Kingdom”, paper presented at the “Welfare Reform” conference, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 9 November 2000.

Feeny, S., “The Effective Tax Rate of Entities in the Motor Vehicle Industry”, project seminar for the Australian Taxation Office, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 2 November 2000.

41

Harding, D., “Synchronization of Cycles”, paper presented at the “Growth and Business Cycles in Theory and Practice” conference, Manchester, University of Manchester, 7 July 2000.

Harding, D., “Synchronization of Cycles”, paper presented at the “Macroeconomic Workshop”, Brisbane, University of Queensland, 27 April 2000.

Harding, D., “Synchronization of Cycles”, paper presented at the “The Twentieth International Symposium on Forecasting” conference, Lisbon, ISF, 22 June 2000.

Harding, D., “Dissecting the Cycle”, paper presented at the “World Congress of the Econometric Society” conference, Washington, Econometric Society, 11 August 2000.

Harris, M.N., “A Model for Ordered Data with Clustering of Observations”, paper presented at the Economics Seminar Series, Bundoora, La Trobe University, 1 September 2000.

Harris, M.N., “A Model for Ordered Data with Clustering of Observations”, paper presented at the Economic Seminar Series, Budapest, Hungary, Central European University, 13 October 2000.

Harris, M.N., “The Econometrics of Gravity Models”, paper presented at the Ninth International Conference on Panel Data, Geneva, University of Geneva, 23 June 2000.

Johnson, D.T., “Participation and Claimant Status of Persons on More Than Minimum Family Payment”, paper presented at the Labour Market Research Workshop, Canberra, Department of Family and Community Services, 7 March 2000.

Johnson, D.T., “Discussant of ‘Regulating Gambling: a ‘Market Friendly’ Approach to the Social Impacts’ by Gary Banks”, response paper presented at the Regulation of Services Conference by the Productivity Commission, Canberra, Australian National University, 26-27 June 2000.

Sikora, J., “Are Perceptions of Efficiency Important Sources of Attitudes to Government Ownership? Evidence from Australia, Finland, Poland and Bulgaria 1994/1997”, presented at the “State and Society in Transition” Conference of the Australian Association for Study of Communist and Post-Communist Societies, Canberra, Australian National University, 17 November 2000.

Tseng, Y., “Changes in the Gender Wage Differentials: Cross-sectional versus Cohort Analyses”, paper presented at the Third Labour Econometric Workshop, Hobart, University of Tasmania.

Webster, E., paper presented at the “Australian Labour Market Research Workshop 2000”, Sydney, University of Sydney, 7-8 December 2000.

Wooden, M., “The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey: an Overview”, paper presented at the “Annual Conference of the Australian Sociological Association”, Adelaide, The Flinders University of South Australia, 6 December 2000.

Wooden, M., “The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey: an Overview”, paper presented at the “Australian Labour Market Research Workshop”, Sydney, University of Sydney, 7-8 December 2000.

Wooden, M., “‘Unpaid’ Working Time and Labour Market Reform”, paper presented at the “ACCI Labour Market Reform Conference”, Melbourne, Hotel Sofitel, 3 March 2000.

Wooden, M., “Industrial Relations Reform in Australia: Causes, Consequences and Prospects”, inaugural professorial lecture, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 14 August 2000.

Wooden, M., “Unpaid Working Time: Trends and Consequences”, presentation at the training program of the Australasian Faculty of Occupational Medicine, Adelaide, 1 May 2000.

Wooden, M., “The Changing Labour Market and its Impact on Work and Employment Relations”, paper presented at the Academy of Social Sciences of Australia Workshop on the Future of Work and Employment Relations, University of Sydney, 30 November-1 December 2000.

Wooden, M., Chairman of “Pattern Bargaining: The Case For and Against”, seminar of the Industrial Relations Society of Victoria, Monash Conference Centre, Melbourne, 17 May 2000.

Wooden, M., member of panel at “Welfare Reform” seminar, The University of Melbourne, 16 May 2000.

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Media Coverage 188 references to the Melbourne Institute were identified in the print media and radio/television in 2000. Melbourne Institute staff were reported or products cited in The Australian, The Australian Financial Review, The Age, The Sunday Age, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Daily Telegraph, The West Australian, Illawarra Mercury and various radio and television stations.

43

FINANCE AND PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Table 3: Income and Expenditure of the Melbourne Institute 1996-2000 1996

1998

1999

2000

$1,366,062 $277,838 $736,501 $351,723

$1,742,783 $326,978 $728,057 $687,748

$2,032,641 $376,613 $1,068,191 $587,837

$2,299,358 $312,420 $1,282,342 $704,596

$175,000 $214,500 $1,755,562

$150,000 $218,390 $2,111,173

$150,000 $125,125 $2,307,766

$150,000 $188,426 $2,637,784

$1,080,257 $387,178 $1,467,435

$1,179,267 $571,472 $1,750,739

$1,423,132 $676,060 $2,099,192

$1,482,567 $824,817 $2,307,384

$1,721,936 $885,090 $2,607,026

$62,640

$4,823

$11,981

$383

$30,758

Income Non-University Funds made up of $1,105,576 Subscription Services $211,828 Research Consultancies $610,183 Grants $283,565 Faculty of Economics Base Grant $200,000 Other University Funds $224,499 Total Income $1,530,075 Expenditure Salaries Other Expenditure Total Expenditure Surplus

1997

Table 4: Performance Indicators1 1996 Research Performance Research Income National Competitive Research Grants Other Public Research Grants

Publications

Higher Degree Students

1997

1998

1999

-

$234,128 13% $199,316 157% $503,475 65% $936,921 59% 12 9% 71 42% 4.5 80% -

$346,577 48% $341,171 71% $550,857 9% $1,238,605 32% 34 183% 115 61% 5 11% 1

$380,952 10% $361,938 6% $630,050 14% $1,372,940 11% 41 20% 156 35% 3 -40% 1

$506,508 30% $625,200 73% $855,230 36% $1,986,938 45% 34 -18% 115 -26% 4 33% 0

135

175

258

505

550

30%

47%

96%

9%

$379,828

$448,338

$504,178

$528,472

$500,620

116

18% 193

12% 213

5% 303

-5% 188

66%

10%

42%

-38%

$1,755,562 15%

$2,111,173 20%

$2,307,766 9%

$2,637,784 14%

11.70 15%

14.07 20%

15.91 13%

17.59 14%

$207,400 $77,500

Industry and Other Research Funds

$304,317

Total External Research Income

$589,217

Refereed Journal Articles

11

Total Publications

50

Research Higher Degree Students (Full Time Equivalent) Research Higher Degree Completions

2.5

2000

Business, Government and Public Policy Debates Subscriptions to Melbourne Institute Products (Excluding Australian Economic Review) Value of Subscriptions and Sponsorships References to the Melbourne Institute in the Media Financial Performance Total Income Financial Reserve Multiplier Effect for the University (Ratio of total income to the Faculty’s base-line funding)

$1,530,075 Work in Progress 10.20

1Figures in italics represent the percentage increase/decrease each year. The figures are provisional. In particular the measures of research output need to be confirmed.

44