2001 Annual Report - Melbourne Institute by The Faculty of Business and Economics, The University of Melbourne

MELBOURNE INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

Annual Report 2001 and Outlook 2002â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2003

Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Level 6, Economics and Commerce Building The University of Melbourne Victoria 3010 Australia Phone: +61 3 8344 5330 Fax: +61 3 8344 5630 Email: melb-inst@unimelb.edu.au WWW: http://www.melbourneinstitute.com

ÂŠ2002 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research. COPYRIGHT: All rights reserved. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing of the Publisher. ISSN 1441-1423 Photos by The University of Melbourne, Irene Lorsbergs Photography, Adrian Hall Photography, Department of Family and Community Services and The Australian. Printed and bound by Impact Printing.

CONTENTS Some Highlights

Introduction to the Melbourne Institute

Directorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Report

Outlook for 2002 and 2003

Staff, Associates and Research Students

Advisory Board

Research Areas

Towards Opportunity and Prosperity Conference

Contributions to Policy Analysis and Debates

Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Melbourne

Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Sydney

Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra

International Business Cycles and the Impact on Australia Conference

Roundtable on Health Policy

Publications by Subscription

Staff Publications, Seminars, Presentations and Media Coverage

Finance and Performance Indicators

SOME HIGHLIGHTS • First wave of data collected in major new longitudinal survey (HILDA) about living in Australia • Major social policy research agenda commences under a four-year contract with the Department of Family and Community Services (FaCS) • Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS model) launched in association with the Department of Family Mr James Jordan (FaCS), Professor Alan Duncan (University of and Community Services Nottingham), Dr David Rosalky (FaCS) and Professor Peter Dawkins (Melbourne Institute) at launch of the Melbourne • Melbourne Institute is successful as part of Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator in Canberra, August 2001 a University consortium in securing major funding for research on intellectual property issues • Melbourne Institute’s economic indicators and forecasts continue to be closely watched • Conference on International Business Cycles and the Impact on Australia • Joint conference with the ANU on Creating Jobs: The Role of Government • Melbourne Institute’s forums on the Job Mr Mike Moore, Director General of the World Trade Network create considerable interest Organisation, speaking to the Towards Opportunity and Prosperity Conference by video link from Geneva, Switzerland, • 2002 Towards Opportunity and Prosperity April 2002 Conference with The Australian • Relationships maintained and extended with relevant private and public organisations and community groups such as Westpac, Mercer Investment Consulting, IBISWorld, Mercantile Mutual (now ING), Reserve Bank of Australia, Department of Family and Community Services, Department of Employment, Workplace Relations and Small Business, Productivity Commission, Australian Taxation Office and Committee for Economic Development of Australia • Director elected as a Fellow of the Academy of Social Professor Peter Dawkins (centre) receiving his testamur as a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences, and a Fellow of the Institute of Public Sciences from Professor Faye Gale and Professor Administration (Victoria) Leon Mann, the President of the Academy

Performance Indicators – External Research Income Melbourne Institute performance indicators registered increases in: • Public research grants • Subscriptions and sponsorship • Total external research income • Total publications Melbourne Institute staff published 37 articles in refereed journals including: The Economic Record, The Australian Economic Review, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, The Asia Pacific Journal of Economics and Business, International Journal of Forecasting, Australian Journal of Labour Economics, Economic Papers, Australian Bulletin of Labour, Journal of Sociology, Work, Employment and Society, Indian Economic Review, People and Place and Australian Social Monitor.

Figure 1: Growth of External Research Income

External Research Income ($million)

4.5

4.61

4 3

1.98

2 1

0.58

0.93

1.23

1.37

1998

1999

0 1996

1997

Year

2000

2001

2002 projected

INTRODUCTION TO THE MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Vision, Mission, Focus, History and Strategic Objectives Vision The Melbourne Institute aims to be a major institute of applied economic and social research that is nationally and internationally renowned in academia, government, business and community groups, and which: • promotes a deeper understanding and discussion of economic and social issues of national significance; • fosters effective responses to these issues through research that identifies alternative policy responses and quantifies their likely effects; • combines rigorous economic and social analysis with a genuine attachment to the Australian community’s concern for the less well off. Accordingly our vision is to be ‘hard-headed but soft-hearted’.

Mission In seeking to achieve this vision the Melbourne Institute’s central mission is: • to undertake world-class independent and impartial applied economic and social research and policy analysis, on major issues relevant to Australia; provide highly valued products and services for business, government and community groups; and provide research training for emerging economic and social researchers. • to use our research to foster informed discussion and debate amongst academics, policy makers, business and community groups, through publications, conferences, forums and the media. In pursuing this mission the Melbourne Institute will also undertake internationally collaborative research and will seek to develop intellectual property that may be transferred to other parts of the world.

Focus Unifying Theme The unifying theme of the Melbourne Institute’s research agenda is to examine the determinants of both economic performance and social outcomes, and to explore the mutual relationship between the two. Expertise and Intellectual Property The Melbourne Institute’s expertise and intellectual property lie in: • economic and social modelling; • economic and social surveys and indicators; and • economic and social policy analysis. Research Programs Our current research programs are in the following areas: • quantitative macroeconomics and business cycle analysis; • labour, social and fiscal studies; and • innovation and enterprise performance. While our core discipline is, and will remain, economics, we plan to engage with other disciplines including sociology, statistics, management, accounting, finance, demography and others. 6

History The Melbourne Institute was formed in 1962 under the leadership of Professor Ronald Henderson. It was the first economics research institute in an Australian university. Henderson built up an organisation with over 40 staff by the early 1970s. It engaged in a wide range of research areas including macroeconomic forecasting, financial economics and social economics, and is best remembered for its work on poverty and the development of the ‘Henderson Poverty Line’. After the Henderson era, Professor Peter Dixon was appointed Director and after some restructuring, the new Institute based its operation around Dixon’s ORANI model of the Australian economy. In the early 1990s, Peter Dixon and a number of his senior colleagues left the Institute to join Monash University. This necessitated a second period of adjustment and restructuring initiated by Professor Richard Blandy who was Director from 1992 to 1994. The current Director, Professor Peter Dawkins, commenced in January 1996 and a five-year strategic plan was developed to raise the Institute’s profile in academia, business, government and the community sector. The unifying theme of its research agenda was the link between economic performance and social outcomes. Since 1996 the Institute has more than doubled in size on a range of measures (staff, revenue, publications, media references etc.). Peter Dawkins has been appointed for a second five-year period (2001 to 2005) and a new strategic plan developed. The Institute now operates in three research areas: quantitative macroeconomics and business cycle analysis; labour social and fiscal studies; and enterprise performance research. In the new strategic plan the Institute aims to achieve a national and international reputation for excellence in its ‘hard-headed but soft-hearted’ economic and social research, and to continue contributing strongly to public policy discussion. In pursuing this agenda, it plans to continue growing in size. In 2001 its income was over $5 million and it employed about thirty-five staff.

Strategic Objectives For the period 2001–2005 the Melbourne Institute aims: 1. to consolidate and build on our strength and reputation in quantitative macroeconomics and business cycle analysis, to be widely regarded as the major Australian centre in this field, and to be producing world-class research output alongside highly respected economic indicators and forecasts; 2. to firmly establish our role in the closely related areas of labour, social and fiscal studies, with a view to being widely regarded as the major Australian centre in this field, with a primary focus on: • social policy research, especially about the link between the social security system and the labour market and economic and social policy issues relating to families and communities, • household survey research, especially the survey of Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA), • but also with an interest in undertaking research on important policy issues on other related topics (such as immigration, education policy, health policy, industrial relations), and an interest in undertaking miscellaneous consultancies on a range of topics in applied economic and social research that utilise the skills of the researchers in this area; 3. to build upon the foundations laid in recent years in the area of enterprise performance and the related topic of intangible assets, intellectual property and innovation, and to establish a viable research team in this field that will become widely regarded as excellent and producing outstanding research output; 4. to take advantage of our strengths in all the fields in which we operate, to conduct collaborative research between the associated research teams to achieve insights that would not be possible if the teams operated only on an independent basis; 5. to explore other related fields in which we might choose to operate and to cautiously expand into such other areas that would add to the overall strength of the Melbourne Institute in applied economic and social research, without detracting from its existing strengths and cohesion; 6. to engage with policy makers, business and community groups, contributing strongly to economic and social debates and policy discussion and development in Australia, through publications, conferences, seminars, forums and other relevant means; 7. to be a significant centre of postgraduate study in economic and social research; 8. to be an enjoyable place to work and to promote the career development of staff of the Melbourne Institute; 9. to effectively manage the growth of the Melbourne Institute from a small into a medium-sized organisation, achieving the appropriate balance between spontaneity and efficient operation; 10. to make the best use of information technology in achieving greater internal efficiency and in providing services to clients. 7

DIRECTOR’S REPORT Introduction: Hard Heads, Soft Hearts 2001 was a year of expansion for the Melbourne Institute. The annual income more than doubled to go over $5 million and the staffing was increased from 25 to 32 as well. This was largely due to the commencement of two major new contracts with the Commonwealth Department of Family and Community Services. One of these contracts is to design and manage the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Longitudinal survey. The other is to undertake a major research program on various aspects of social policy, especially social policy issues that relate to interaction of the labour market and the income support system. Our vision is to be a major institute of applied economic and social research that is nationally and internationally renowned in academia, government, business and community groups, and to do so in a hard-headed but soft-hearted way. That is, we Professor Peter Dawkins aim to combine rigorous economic and social analysis with a genuine attachment to DIRECTOR the Australian community’s concern for the less well off. Our expanded activities, which will involve some hard-headed analysis of the behaviour and experience of Australian households, especially many who are ‘less well off’, will further enhance our ability to do this.

The Three Research Areas The Melbourne Institute’s three research areas are: • Centre for Business Cycle Analysis • Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies Research Program • Enterprise Performance Research Program Each had very active years in 2001. Their activities and outputs are outlined on pages 18 to 26.

Towards Opportunity and Prosperity Conference with The Australian A major activity for me in 2001 was the planning of the April 2002 Economic and Social Outlook Conference, Towards Opportunity and Prosperity. This was a joint project with The Australian newspaper. At the time of writing this conference has taken place. It focused on many of the big policy issues of the day, such as sustaining productivity growth, reducing unemployment, higher education reform and the ageing population. The conference was attended by about 400 people and was covered extensively in The Australian and other media. Speakers included the Governor of the Reserve Bank, the Secretary of the Treasury, a number of leading politicians and business people, as well as leading experts from academia in Australia and overseas. It is covered more fully in the 2002 Annual Report, but as it was a major event prior to the publication of this report, we give a brief report on page 27. We are now planning our second Economic and Social Outlook Conference with The Australian, to be held on 6–7 November 2003.

40th Anniversary of the Melbourne Institute 2002 is the 40th year of the Melbourne Institute. To mark this milestone, we will be inviting all current and previous staff of the Institute to a Christmas function in December. Then in February 2003, a dinner will be held at Ormond College, to which many of our major clients, sponsors and staff will join some leading figures in the Australian economy and society to celebrate the achievements of the Institute and look forward to the next ten years.

Staffing and Adjunct Appointments We welcomed a considerable number of new staff to the Melbourne Institute in 2001. Dr Guyonne Kalb, Dr Lei Lei Song, Dr Roger Wilkins and Mr Simon Freidin were appointed as Research Fellows and Mr Michael Chua and Mr Hsein Kew as Research Officers. Ms Penny Hope joined the administrative team in 2001. In 2002 Associate Professor Tim Fry and Dr Jong-Say Yong will join as Principal Fellow and Research Fellow respectively and Ben Jensen will return to the Institute as a Research Fellow after a period of teaching in New York and Kelly Jarvis as a Research Officer. The Melbourne Institute was pleased to make the following new adjunct and associate appointments in 2001: Professor Derek Bosworth from the Manchester School of Management and Professor Boris Schedvin from the University of Melbourne as Professorial Fellows; Associate Professor Bruce Headey, formerly the Director of the Centre for Public Policy at the University of Melbourne, as a Principal Fellow; Professor Danny Samson of the University of Melbourne as an Adjunct Professor; and Dr Mardi Dungey of the Australian National University as a Senior Fellow. Additional honorary appointments in 2002 will include Dr John Nieuwenhuysen, former Chief Executive of the Committee for Economic Development of Australia, as a Principal Fellow; and Dr Denise Doiron from the University of New South and Dr Mike Shields from the University of Melbourne as Senior Fellows. With the expansion of the budget and staffing of the Melbourne Institute, we appointed Ms Fiona Zammit as Business Manager, to join our Senior Management Group and lead our administrative and technical support team. This has taken a great deal of the administrative burden from the Directorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s shoulders. We have also increasingly delegated a range of management and leadership responsibilities, particularly with respect to the operation of the three research areas, to the various members of the Senior Management Group, which now comprises David Johnson, Don Harding, Mark Wooden, Elizabeth Webster and Tim Fry, along with Fiona Zammit and myself. I would like to take this opportunity of thanking the Senior Management Group for taking on their delegated responsibilities so effectively.

Advisory Board I would like to thank Dr Peter Jonson and the Advisory Board for their important contribution. The Board plays a crucial role for the Melbourne Institute in the form of high level advice and contact with the world of government, business and community groups. With the growth of the Institute they have decided to establish three sub-committees, one for each of the three research areas. At the time of writing two of these have already met and have been very helpful to the areas in question. The third will meet in the second half of 2002. A special mention again for Mr Tony Cole who, in addition to serving on the Board, chairs the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Melbourne and has taken the role of cochairing the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra and the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Sydney.

Administrative Staff and Technical Support

Left to right: Ms Rosy Qin, Ms Karen Roe, Ms Rachel Derham, Ms Fiona Zammit, Ms Lara Hammond, Mr Woei Tian Liew, Ms Penny Hope and Mr Jean-Luc Garlick

I would also like to take this opportunity of thanking the administrative and technical support team who play very important roles in ensuring the smooth operation of the Melbourne Institute.

OUTLOOK FOR 2002 AND 2003 Introduction Our strategic plan for 2001–2005 includes a target of approximately doubling our research output, being a leader in economic and social modelling as well as in the production, analysis and commentary on economic and social indicators, and being an increasingly influential source of ideas for government, business and community groups. Some of our planned activities in 2002–2003 are outlined below.

Social Policy Research The Melbourne Institute will continue its major program of social policy research for the Department of Family and Community Services. The three areas of research are: • Empirical Studies of the Interaction of the Labour Market and Social Security System (led by Jeff Borland) • The Supply and Demand for Income Security (led by Peter Dawkins and Guyonne Kalb) • Economic and Social Research on Families and Communities (led by David Johnson).

Launch of the First Wave of Data and Further Waves of the HILDA Survey In October 2002, the first wave of data from the longitudinal survey of Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) will be released. This project is led by Professor Mark Wooden under contract with the Department of Family and Community Services. The design and management of the HILDA survey will continue to be a major activity in 2002 and 2003. The second wave of data to be collected in 2002–2003 and released in late 2003 will include a module on wealth, funded by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

HILDA Conference in March 2003 In March 2003, a conference will be held to discuss some of the early findings from research using the HILDA data. Australian and international experts will also discuss the value of longitudinal data which will become available from the HILDA survey from wave two onwards.

Economic and Social Outlook Conferences (jointly with The Australian) First Economic and Social Outlook Conference by the Melbourne Institute and The Australian held on 4–5 April 2002, ‘Towards Opportunity and Prosperity’ This conference focused on many of the big policy issues of the day, such as sustaining productivity growth, reducing unemployment, higher education reform and the ageing population. The conference was attended by about 400 people and was covered extensively in The Australian and other media. Speakers included a number of leading politicians and business people, the Governor of the Reserve Bank and the Secretary of the Treasury, as well as leading experts from academia in Australia and overseas. It will be covered more fully in the 2002 Annual Report, but as it was a major event prior to the publication of this report, we give a brief report on page 27.

Second Economic and Social Outlook Conference by the Melbourne Institute and The Australian to be held on 6–7 November 2003 at the University of Melbourne Feedback from the Towards Opportunity and Prosperity Conference has been very positive and many people have suggested that we should organise a second conference of its kind in 2003. We are pleased to announce that the Melbourne Institute and The Australian have decided to proceed with the Second Economic and Social Outlook Conference, on 6–7 November 2003. More details of this conference will be circulated in late 2002 and early 2003.

Research on the Economics and Reform of the Health-Care System The Melbourne Institute has identified this area as one of major importance for policy-based research in Australia. In early 2002 the Institute co-organised a roundtable with the Productivity Commission in this area and released the proceedings at the Melbourne Institute’s June Quarterly Forums in Melbourne and Canberra. The Institute is also undertaking some research for the Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance in this area.

Research on the Economics of Education and Education Policy The Melbourne Institute has also identified the economics of education and education policy area as one of major importance for policy based research in Australia. Former Deputy Vice Chancellor, Professor Boris Schedvin, now a Professorial Fellow of the Institute, is editing a book which will explore the issues and the Institute is undertaking some research for the Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance in this area.

Intellectual Property Research The Melbourne Institute is successful as part of a University consortium in securing major funding for research on intellectual property issues. This was a joint proposal by the Faculty of Economics and Commerce, the Faculty of Law and the Melbourne Business School. Peter Dawkins coordinated the successful proposal which has led to the establishment of the Intellectual Property Research Institute of Australia (IPRIA). Associate Professor Andrew Christie of the Law School is the Director of IPRIA and Dr Elizabeth Webster of the Melbourne Institute is one of three Associate Directors. IPRIA will engage in an exciting program of research on economic, legal and business aspects of intellectual property.

Business Cycle Research The Melbourne Institute Centre for Business Cycle Analysis will continue with its ambitious academic research program aimed at: • developing a unified non-parametric framework for studying business cycles; • developing Markov switching, threshold autoregression and factor analytic approaches to studying business cycles; • developing its vector autoregression model for forecasting and policy analysis; and • understanding consumer sentiment, household saving behaviour and the formation of inflation expectations. In 2003, the Centre will have five PhD students working on a range of macroeconomic topics from the determinants of economic growth to the analysis of job vacancy data. The third business cycle conference will be held in the second half of 2003.

Mr Glenn Stevens (Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia) speaking at the inaugural luncheon of the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Sydney, April 2001

STAFF, ASSOCIATES AND RESEARCH STUDENTS Staff Members in 2001

Dr Joanna Sikora MA Wroclaw PhD ANU Ms Penny Smith BEc Hons UWA MCom Melb

Research Staff

Administrative and Technical Support Staff

Director and Ronald Henderson Professor Professor Peter Dawkins BSc Lough MSc Lond PhD Lough FASSA FIPA (Vic)

Business Manager Ms Fiona Zammit Dip Ed BEd Deakin

Professorial Research Fellow Professor Mark Wooden BEc Hons Flin MSc Lond

Finance and Information Technology Manager Mr Jean-Luc Garlick BSc Dip Hum Dip Eco Com LaT

Principal Research Fellow and Deputy Director Associate Professor David Johnson DipAgrEc NE BAgrSc MCom PhD Melb

Functions Manager Ms Karen Roe BA Hons MA LaT PGDACS Melb

Senior Research Fellow and Director of the Centre for Business Cycle Analysis Mr Don Harding BEc Dip Ec MEc ANU Senior Research Fellow and Director Enterprise Performance Research Program Dr Elizabeth Webster BEc Hons MEc Monash PhD Camb Senior Research Fellows Dr Mariah Evans BA Reed MA Ill PhD Chicago Dr Mark Harris BA Sussex GDipEc PhD Monash Dr Peter Summers BA MA MSc PhD Iowa Research Fellows Mr Simon Feeny BA Hons Portsmouth MSc Reading Mr Simon Freidin BSc Hons LaT GradDipCompSci LaT Dr Guyonne Kalb MEc Erasmus PhD Monash Ms Anne Leahy BCom Melb Ms Nellie Lentini BA Monash Ms Joanne Loundes BEc Hons Murdoch Ms Rosanna Scutella BCom Hons Melb Dr Lei Lei Song BA E.China MSc Wuhan MEc Wâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;gong PhD Melb Mr Duy Tien Tran BAgrEco Hons UNE Dr Yi-Ping Tseng BEc Taiwan PhD ANU Ms Nicole Watson BSc Hons UWA GradDipMgtSc Canberra Dr Roger Wilkins BCom MCom Melb MSc Wisc PhD Melb Research Officers Mr Michael Chua BEc Hons UNE Mr Matt Hammill BEc Newcastle BCom Hons Melb Mrs Glenys Harding BEc ANU Mr Hsein Kew BCom Melb Mr Woei Tian Liew BSc MSc LaT GDipEc Melb

Senior Administrative Officer Ms Rachel Derham BSc Melb Administrative Assistants Ms Lara Hammond Ms Penny Hope BA LaT Ms Rosy Qin (on leave in 2001)

Postgraduate Students Mr Yasar Gedik BEc Hons LaT MCom Melb Mr Matt Hammill BEc Newcastle BCom Hons Melb Mr Ben Jensen BCom Hons Melb Ms Joanne Loundes BEc Hons Murdoch Ms Rosanna Scutella BCom Hons Melb Ms Penny Smith BEc Hons UWA

New Staff Members in 2002 Research Staff Principal Research Fellow Associate Professor Tim Fry BA Hons Kent MA PhD Manc Research Fellows Mr Ben Jensen BCom Hons Melb Dr Jong-Say Yong BA BSocSc Hons MSocSci Sing MA PhD Brit Col Research Officers Ms Kelly Jarvis BEc Hons Monash Mr Tim Watts BCom BA Melb MA Boston

Staff Members in 2001â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2002

Professor Peter Dawkins

Mr Michael Chua

Ms Rachel Derham

Dr Mariah Evans

Mr Simon Feeny

Mr Simon Freidin

Associate Professor Tim Fry

Mr Jean-Luc Garlick

Mr Matt Hammill

Ms Lara Hammond

Mr Don Harding

Mrs Glenys Harding

Dr Mark Harris

Ms Penny Hope

Ms Kelly Jarvis

Mr Ben Jensen

Associate Professor David Johnson

Dr Guyonne Kalb

Mr Hsein Kew

Ms Anne Leahy

Ms Nellie Lentini

Mr Woei Tian Liew

Ms Joanne Loundes

Ms Rosy Qin

Ms Karen Roe

Ms Rosanna Scutella

Dr Joanna Sikora

Ms Penny Smith

Dr Lei Lei Song

Dr Peter Summers

Mr Duy Tien Tran

Dr Yi-Ping Tseng

Ms Nicole Watson

Mr Tim Watts

Dr Elizabeth Webster

Dr Roger Wilkins

Professor Mark Wooden

Dr Jong-Say Yong

Ms Fiona Zammit

Adjunct Professors and Associates in 2001 Adjunct Professors Professor Jeff Borland MA PhD Yale Adjunct Associate Professor, Melbourne Institute Associate Professor, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Research interests include analysis of the operation of labour markets in Australia, applications of microeconomic theory to labour markets, and the economics of sport. Within the Institute, Jeff is an associate editor of the Australian Economic Review. Professor John Creedy BSc (Eco) Brist BPhil (Eco) Oxf Adjunct Professor, Melbourne Institute Truby Williams Chair of Economics, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Research interests include income distribution, public economics, labour economics, and history of economic analysis. Within the Institute, John has been joint editor of the Australian Economic Review and contributed to tax and welfare research programs. Professor John Freebairn MAgrEcon NE PhD Davis FASSA Adjunct Professor, Melbourne Institute Head, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Research interests include taxation reform, labour economics, especially employment, infrastructure pricing and investment, and microeconomic reform. Within the Institute, John has made substantial contributions to research in the areas of unemployment and tax reform, public finance and public policy. Professor Danny Samson BEc PhD UNSW Adjunct Professor, Melbourne Institute Professor, Department of Management, The University of Melbourne Research interests include operations management, business competitiveness, strategy and e-commerce. Within the Institute, Danny contributes to the Enterprise Performance Research Program, is chief investigator of an ARC SPIRT Grant and is also involved in collaboration on research on innovation.

Professorial Fellows Professor Derek Bosworth BA Lanc MSc PhD Warw Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute Professor of Business Economics, Manchester School of Management, UMIST Research interests include economics of innovation and technical change, productivity and firm performance, and intellectual property. Within the Institute, Derek is a principal investigator in an ARC SPIRT Grant and is collaborating with the Enterprise Performance Research Program in the field of the economics of innovation. Professor Bruce Chapman BEc Hons ANU PhD Yale Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute Professor of Economics and Director of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, RSSS, The Australian National University Research interests include labour economics, the economics of education, applied econometrics, industrial relations and economic policy issues. Within the Institute, Bruce contributes to the Enterprise Performance Research Program and is a key contributor to economic policy debate. Professor Alan Duncan BA Hons Manc DPhil York Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute Professor of Microeconomics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham Research interests include welfare program evaluation, analysis of work incentives, static and behavioural tax microsimulation, econometric models of labour supply and labour market and welfare program participation. Within the Institute, Alan is a key contributor to the development of the MITTS model. Professor Jonathan Kelley BA Camb PhD Berkeley Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute Director, International Survey Project, The Australian National University, and Director and Principal Investigator, International Social Science Survey and International Survey of Economic Attitudes Research interests include quantitative sociology and social economics. Within the Institute, Jonathan produces the International Social Science Survey in conjunction with the ANU. He is a contributing author of the Australian Social Monitor and a key figure in the Social Policy Research Program. 14

Professor Boris Schedvin BEc PhD Syd Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute Research interests include economic history with particular interests in the transformation of the Australian economy and of Australian economic and scientific institutions during the course of the twentieth century. Within the Institute, Boris is a member of the Instituteâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Advisory Board and contributes to the research agenda in the areas of education policy, health policy research and intellectual property research.

Principal Fellows Dr Ernst Boehm AUA BEc Hons MEc Adel MCom Melb DPhil Oxf Principal Fellow, Melbourne Institute Research interests include the measurement and dating of the business cycle, and the economic history of Australia. Within the Institute, Ernst developed the leading, coincident and lagging indexes of Australian economic activity as well as the leading index of inflation. He published the results of these indexes in the monthly Westpac â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Melbourne Institute reports between 1985 and 1994. Associate Professor Bruce Headey BA Oxf MA Wisc PhD Strath Principal Fellow, Melbourne Institute Formerly the Director of the Centre for Public Policy, The University of Melbourne Research interests include welfare and distributional issues and social welfare policies in Western Europe and North America. Within the Institute, Bruce is the editor of the Australian Social Monitor and involved in social policy research.

Senior Fellows Dr Mardi Dungey BEc Tas PhD ANU Senior Fellow, Melbourne Institute Fellow Research, School of Pacific and Asian Studies, The Australian National University and Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, The Australian National University Research interests include exchange rate volatility, macroeconomic modelling and time series econometrics. Within the Institute, Mardi contributes to the Business Cycle Analysis Program. Dr Mark Rogers BSc Lond MSc Warw PhD ANU Senior Fellow, Melbourne Institute Tutor in Economics and Management, Harris Manchester College, Oxford University Research interests include economic growth and industrial organisation with a particular focus being on firm-level performance using Australian data. Within the Institute, Mark is involved in the creation and analysis of the Innovation Scoreboard and a major SPIRT project on the performance of Australian enterprises.

New Associates in 2002 Principal Fellow Dr John Nieuwenhuysen BA Hons MA Natal PhD LSE FASSA Principal Fellow, Melbourne Institute Research interests include taxation, industrial relations, industrial regulation, economic growth, immigration, welfare and poverty. Within the Institute, John will contribute to sourcing funds for research projects, developing new publications and our media coverage.

Senior Fellows Dr Denise Doiron BA Monc MA PhD UBC Senior Fellow, Melbourne Institute Senior Lecturer, University of New South Wales Research interests include industrial relations and bargaining theory, labour economics and labour and social policy. Within the Institute, Denise contributes to the Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies Program and is collaborating on a project which is estimating the demand for child care and labour supply in Australian households. Dr Mike Shields BA Hons Staffordshire MSc Health UNY PhD Leic Senior Fellow, Melbourne Institute Senior Lecturer, Economics, The University of Melbourne Research interests include labour economics, health economics and microeconometrics. Within the Institute, Mike is assisting with our research in the area of health economics. 15

ADVISORY BOARD Advisory Board Members in 2001 Chairperson Dr Peter Jonson, Professional Director

Members Ms Stella Axarlis, Managing Director, Bilcon Engineering Mr Gary Banks, Chairman, Productivity Commission Mr Tony Cole, Principal â&#x20AC;&#x201C; National Practice Leader, William M. Mercer Mr Michael Costa, Secretary, Labor Council of NSW Professor Peter Dawkins, Director and Ronald Henderson Professor, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne Mr Bill Evans, General Manager, Westpac Banking Corporation Father Nic Frances, Executive Director, Brotherhood of St Laurence Professor John Freebairn, Head, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Dr Peter Jonson Mr Don Harding, Assistant Director, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne Associate Professor David Johnson, Deputy Director, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne Professor Frank Larkins, Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research), The University of Melbourne Mr Ian Little, Secretary, Department of Treasury and Finance, Victoria Professor Peter Lloyd, Ritchie Professor of Economics and Director, Centre for Financial Studies, The University of Melbourne Associate Professor Alison McClelland, Associate Professor, Department of Social Work and Social Policy, La Trobe University Dr David Rosalky, Secretary, Department of Family and Community Services Mr Phil Ruthven, Executive Chairman, IBIS Business Information Professor Boris Schedvin, Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Academic Management), The University of Melbourne Mr Glenn Stevens, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia Dr Elizabeth Webster, Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne Professor Ross Williams FASSA, Dean, Faculty of Economics and Commerce, The University of Melbourne Professor Mark Wooden, Professorial Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne Ms Fiona Zammit, Business Manager, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne David Rosalky resigned in 2001 due to retiring from the public service and Boris Schedvin resigned due to retiring from the University of Melbourne. Michael Costa resigned due to entering the New South Wales Parliament. Stella Axarlis also tendered her resignation in 2002. Many thanks to them for their advice and best wishes for the future.

New Members in 2002 Ms Sharan Burrow, President, Australian Council of Trade Unions Mr Mark Sullivan, Secretary, Department of Family and Community Services

Professor Peter Dawkins

Mr Tony Cole and Dr Peter Jonson

Front row: Professor Peter Dawkins, Mr Tony Cole, Dr Peter Jonson, Associate Professor David Johnson, Professor Mark Wooden Back row: Dr Elizabeth Webster, Mr Gary Banks, Professor Ross Williams, Associate Professor Alison McClelland, Mr Mark Sullivan, Mr Glenn Stevens, Mr Ian Little, Associate Professor Tim Fry (in attendance), Mr Don Harding, Professor Frank Larkins, Ms Fiona Zammit, Mr Phil Ruthven, Professor Peter Lloyd, Professor John Freebairn, Ms Lara Hammond (Advisory Board Secretary)

Father Nic Frances and Professor Ross Williams

Mr Bill Evans

RESEARCH AREAS Melbourne Institute Centre for Business Cycle Analysis Introduction In 2001 the Melbourne Institute Centre for Business Cycle Analysis (MICBA) continued with its major program of research on business cycles as well as continuing to produce its regular publications on economic indicators and forecasting etc. These publications include the Mercer–Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Westpac–Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity, Westpac–Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment, Melbourne Institute Survey of Inflationary Expectations, and the ING–Melbourne Institute Saving Report.

Research Staff The MICBA is led by Mr Don Harding (Director) and Dr Peter Summers (Deputy Director) and comprises Dr Lei Lei Song (Research Fellow), Mr Michael Chua (Research Officer) and Ms Anne Leahy (Manager Economic Indicators). Ms Penelope Smith is a postgraduate student and Mr Matt Hammill who was previously a Research Officer is now a full-time postgraduate student. Mr Duy Tran who was a Research Fellow resigned to undertake a PhD at Duke University.

Research Output In 2001 the MICBCA staff authored six articles in refereed journals and three book chapters. The MICBCA’s international influence is demonstrated by the five fully written internal academic conference papers presented in 2001. Some highlights of these were that Don Harding and Adrian Pagan were invited to present a paper on ‘Monitoring the European Business Cycle’ to the CEPR/Banca d’Italia conference, 6–7 September. Peter Summers presented a paper on synchronisation of business cycles in the G7 countries to the regional meeting of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, Laguna Beach, California, 5–8 April. Peter was also an invited discussant at a conference on Recent Advances in Bayesian Analysis held in Marseilles, France, 14–15 June. One paper was presented to the European meeting of the Econometric Society held in Lausanne, Switzerland; three papers were presented to the Austral-Asia Meetings of the Econometric Society held in Auckland, New Zealand; and one paper was presented to the 21st International Symposium on Forecasting, Pine Mountain Georgia, USA. The MICBCA’s influence on the domestic academic debate is illustrated by the 10 papers that its staff authored and presented at domestic conferences and workshops. These comprised four papers to the Melbourne Institute workshop on Unemployment Modelling and Policy Analysis, two papers for the Workshop on Business and Economic Forecasting organised by Monash University, three papers for the Melbourne Institute conference on International Business Cycles and the Impact on Australia and one paper to the Conference of Economists. MICBCA staff were invited discussants at several conferences. In addition to the above, MICBCA staff reached out to present results of their research to business, government and the community at the Melbourne Institute Business Economics and From left to right: Dr Lei Lei Song, Ms Penny Hope, Public Economics Forums, private seminars and presentations to Ms Penny Smith, Dr Peter Summers, Mr Michael Chua, Ms Kinga Elo, Mr Don Harding and Ms Anne Leahy clients.

Business Cycle Conference The MICBCA organised a successful conference on International Business Cycles and the Impact on Australia, 8â&#x20AC;&#x201C;9 November. The keynote speaker was Dr Barry Hughes (Credit Suisse Asset Management). External speakers comprised Dr Glenn Otto (UNSW), Mr Bill Evans (Westpac), Professor Allan Layton (QUT), Dr Alan Oster (NAB), Dr Andrew Stone (RBA) and Dr Fashid Vahid (Monash). Speakers from the University of Melbourne comprised Dr Kalvinder Shields, Dr Peter Summers, Mr Don Harding, Dr Ă&#x201C;lan Henry, Mr Tim Kam and Ms Penelope Smith.

The International Business Cycles and the Impact on Australia Conference in progress

Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies Research Program Summary and Main Points The Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies Research Program (LSF) in 2001 had a budgeted income of about $3.7 million, however about $1.7 million of this was spent on survey costs associated with the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) project. The remaining $2.0 million paid the wages, on costs and support costs of the equivalent of about 13 full-time researchers. The Federal Department of Family and Community Services (FaCS) was the dominant source of funds for the program providing about $2.1 million for the From left to right: Mr Ben Jensen, Dr Roger Wilkins, Dr Jong-Say Yong, Dr Yi-Ping Tseng, Professor Mark Wooden, Dr Guyonne HILDA survey and an additional $0.75 million for a research contract. The next largest source of income was Kalb, Mr Hsein Kew, Ms Rosanna Scutella and Associate Professor David Johnson the Faculty of Economics and Commerce, which provided $0.4 million matched to the FaCS research contract. The main focus of the LSF in 2001 was consolidation and delivery in the two main program areas: the HILDA survey and the FaCS research contract. The LSF is responsible for the publication of two journals: the Australian Economic Review and the Australian Social Monitor. Efforts were made to develop new research programs in health and education. Other areas included the continued development of the International Social Science Research database facility and activities associated with the International Reform Monitor. 2001 also saw the continuation of the very successful series of quarterly Public Economics Forums in Canberra. HILDA is a longitudinal household survey to be conducted on a yearly basis among about 8,000 Australian households. The LSF has the task of designing the questionnaire for the survey, organising the collection of the data and devising and implementing a method of making the output from the survey available to researchers. 2001 was also the first year of a four-year contract with FaCS to provide economic research for the Department. Work in relation to this contract comprised much of the substantive achievement of the program in 2001. Work on the FaCS contract was undertaken in three areas: modelling, labour studies, and family and community studies. The LSF program employed a number of new staff and a top priority during 2001 was settling down the new staff and ensuring all perform well. New staff include Hsein Kew, Roger Wilkins, Guyonne Kalb and Simon Freidin. In addition Bruce Headey joined the program as an associate. The budget for 2001 was on track generating a profit of the order of $75,000.

Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey In 2000 the Commonwealth Department of Family and Community Services (FaCS) awarded the tender for the design and management of the HILDA survey, Australiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s first large-scale household panel survey, to the Melbourne Institute. The project is easily the Instituteâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest, with the contract initially worth $7 million over four years. Subsequent revisions to the scope of the project, however, have seen that sum increase to just over $9.6 million. While the focus of the survey is on income, labour market activity and employment, and families, its coverage extends to many other issues including, for example, health, lifestyle and subjective wellbeing. The first wave of the project was piloted during the first half of 2001 before being administered during the second half of the year. Survey participation involved a 10-minute interview with at least one member of the household, followed by 35-minute interviews with all persons aged 15 years and over. All of these interviews were conducted in person. All individual respondents were also asked to complete a leave-behind self-completion questionnaire. To encourage response, all households are offered up to $50 for participating in the survey. The aim was to conduct interviews at 7,800 randomly selected households from across Australia. The final outcome resulted in a responding sample of 7,682 households, achieved from a total of 11,693 in-scope households. The household response rate was thus 66 per cent which, while below our target, still compares favourably with recent international experience. This sample, in turn, generated interviews with 13,965 individuals. After cleaning and checking, a data set was submitted to FaCS in March 2001. A confidentialised public-use file together with supporting documentation will be available in October 2002. Meanwhile development and testing of survey instruments for the second wave have been proceeding. A major feature of the second wave is the incorporation of a specific module on wealth. Funded by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the main objective of this module is to estimate the level of net wealth holdings in Australian households. Wave 2 of the HILDA survey will go into the field in August 2002 and will extend through until March 2003. A third wave will go into the field in August 2003. The final format and content of that wave, however, have yet to be determined. Funding constraints, however, may compel us to have to switch from face-to-face interviewing to telephone interviewing. While analysis of these data is outside the scope of the contract with FaCS, the Melbourne Institute is keen to both encourage the wider use of these data and to seek funding from other sources for the analysis. To this end a submission for ARC funding was made in 2002. In addition, a conference focusing on the first wave of data is being planned (with FaCS) for March 2003.

Cover of the HILDA brochure

From left to right: Ms Nicole Watson, Associate Professor Tim Fry, Professor Mark Wooden and Mr Simon Freidin

Social Policy Research Contract with the Commonwealth Department of Family and Community Services (FaCS) The FaCS research contract was undertaken by three teams: labour markets (headed by Jeff Borland), family and community (headed by David Johnson), modelling primarily with the MITTS model 1 (headed by Peter Dawkins). Nineteen projects were undertaken during Professor Peter Dawkins Associate Professor Professor Jeff Borland 2001 and their titles are shown in Table 1. David Johnson There were problems with data availability for some projects (delays largely the responsibility of the client) and some other projects were late. However, in general FaCS was pleased with our work. A very successful workshop was conducted in December 2001 in Canberra. Researchers presented progress reports to a group of interested departmental and academic personnel. Many of the projects from 2001 will continue in 2002 but seven new projects have been selected from over 20 suggestions to commence in 2002 and there are likely to be others. Two of the new projects will utilise the HILDA database. Table 1: Titles of Projects Undertaken for FaCS Stream 1: Labour Markets

Stream 2: Family and Community

Stream 3: Modelling

1) Reliance on Income Support

8) Economic and Sociological Analyses of Families: Existing Research Findings

16) Policy Simulation of Aspects of the Tax System Using the MITTS – Interim Project

9) Economic and Sociological Analyses of Communities: Existing Research Findings

17) Effects of the Working Nation Social Security Reforms in July 1995: A Policy Simulation Using the MITTS

2) Effect of Changes to Activity Test Arrangements on Exit from Payments – A: Mutual Obligation 3) Effect of Changes to Activity Test Arrangements on Exit from Payments – B: Intensive Review 4) Movement Between Payment Types 5) The Impact of Social Policy Initiatives: A Review of the Literature 6) Effect of Changes to Activity Test Arrangements on Exit from Payments – D: Work for the Dole 7) Effect of Changes to Activity Test Arrangements on Exit from Payments – C: Job Seeker Diary

10) Family and Community Influences on Wellbeing 11) Neighbourhood and Family Effects on Employment and Employment Aspirations

18) Analysis of Incidence and Trends in Jobless Families in Australia 19) Comparison of Alternative Specifications for the Labour Supply Models in the MITTS

12) Attitudes to Provision for Old Age 13) Work and Family Directions in the US and Australia 14) Understanding and Improving Data Quality Relating to Low Income Households 15) Economics of Marriage and Divorce

Unemployment: Economic Analysis and Policy Modelling 2001 was the second year of an ARC linkage project, in association with the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations, the Department of Family and Community Services and the Productivity Commission. The Commonwealth Treasury and the Reserve Bank are also involved in an advisory capacity, and contributed to a conference held in August 2001 to discuss drafts of the various papers involved. 1

MITTS is a behavioural microsimulation model of the Australian tax and social security system. MITTS examines the effects of income tax and transfer payments policy changes on individuals and households in Australia. A distinguishing feature of MITTS is that it models labour supply responses to changes in taxes and benefits. The simulator consists of two closely integrated models. First, a ‘static’ model, MITTS-A, examines the effects of a specified change in the direct tax and transfer system, assuming that the labour supply, and hence pre-tax and transfer income, of each individual remains fixed. Second, a ‘behavioural’ model, MITTS-B, allows for the effects of labour supply variations in response to changes in the tax and transfer system.

The research conducted addressed the following questions. What determines the speed limits that constrain economic and employment growth? How can the level and/or composition of employment/unemployment be affected by productivity shocks, wage shocks, and fiscal and monetary policy? How can welfare reform affect the level of labour supply, employment and unemployment? What policy packages are suggested by the foregoing research? Contributors to the research included Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer from Monash Universityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Centre of Policy Studies, Ian McDonald, Jenny Lye, Jeff Borland and John Freebairn from the University of Melbourneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Department of Economics as well as Melbourne Institute staff. A number of working papers were produced in 2001, and the final papers including a policy paper by the two project leaders, Peter Dawkins and John Freebairn, are being released in 2002.

Long-Term Unemployment and Work Deprived Individuals: Issues and Policies Elizabeth Webster, together with Mike Dockery from Curtin University, presented a paper at the Creating Jobs: The Role of Government conference in Canberra in December. Their study showed that the incidence of very long-term unemployment has risen by nearly 1 per cent per annum since the late 1970s. Despite concerted active measures taken since the Job Compact was introduced in 1994 and highly favourable growth conditions, there remain nearly 100,000 people in Australia who have been unemployed for over two years. The majority of these people have been workless for a large portion of their working lives. There is broad consensus that the net impact effects of programs for the work-deprived are either small or very small. For all that has been tried, policy makers still do not know what programs work for different people and why. Webster and Dockery argued that this is due in part to deficiencies in past and ongoing evaluation efforts, including the lack of rigorous research designs and access to data for independent researchers. The analysis identifies five different clusters of work-deprived individuals. Policy suggestions include more targeted assistance for these clusters and enduring job creation programs.

How Segmented are Skilled and Unskilled Labour Markets: The Case of Beveridge Curves Lei Lei Song and Elizabeth Webster undertook a study to see if there is evidence that two distinct Beveridge curves for the skilled and unskilled aggregate markets exist. The results affirm the hypothesis and find that the unskilled labour segment is less efficient at matching workers with jobs, primarily due to higher labour turnover rates. Higher turnover rates can be indicative of a poor match between employers and jobseekersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; expectations. Other shift variables, such as the replacement rate, the incidence of long-term unemployment, the immigration rate and the market circumstances in the skilled segment were only found to be important for the unskilled sector curve.

Other Activities International Social Science Survey and Research Database Facility In collaboration with Jonathan Kelley of the Australian National University, the Melbourne Institute continued its involvement with the International Social Science Survey, Australia, and associated household survey research. Mariah Evans was the main Institute employee associated with this venture. Two projects were continued that involved the construction of research database facilities using data from past surveys. Funded primarily by the ARC, the two projects have been undertaken under the leadership of Jonathan Kelley and Mariah Evans. The work has also been supported by the Australian National University, Curtin University, La Trobe University, Monash University, University of Tasmania, Victoria University of Technology and Swinburne University. The first project establishes a database of national social science surveys of household unit record files using data undertaken between 1984 and 2000 on economic, social and political variables with emphasis on the labour market and on attitudes, starting from a base of existing efforts within the collaborating institutions. It pools 10 large, nationally representative samples of Australians (over 22,000 cases) from the International Social Science Surveys/Australia with over 300 variables and is known as the Australian Economic and Social Unit-Record Database (AESUD).

Also funded primarily by the ARC is the International Economic and Social Unit-Record Database (IESUD). This project enhances this database described above by adding exactly comparable data from large, representative national samples of Britain and the USA (over 25,000 cases for both Britain and the USA). They include variables corresponding to the great majority of those available in the Australian data. Second, the project adds exactly comparable data for Bulgaria, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands and Poland from the International Survey of Economic Attitudes. International Reform Monitor The Melbourne Institute is the Australian partner in an international forum for the discussion of interesting and current reforms in the fields of social policy, labour market policy and industrial relations. The forum is run by the Bertelsmann Foundation and provides the opportunity for international Dr Mariah Evans and Professor Jonathan comparisons of experience and knowledge in social policy. Kelley present the results of surveys on There are 15 members of the forum all from developed countries in Western education to the Melbourne Institute Europe and the Pacific rim. Twice a year, each country details current reforms Public Economics Forum in Canberra, November 2001 in the fields listed above. The reforms are compiled into a non-technical monograph aimed at a broad audience of policy makers, academics, public servants, business people and other interested persons. The publication is distributed within the member countries and is also available on the web at www.reform-monitor.org. It has proved to be a valuable means of comparing social policy in the member countries with over 80,000 visits to the website per year. The group meets each year to discuss the development of the project and to present findings on particular issues. David Johnson attended the 2001 meeting held in London. Economics of Education and Health The LFS program continued to seek ways to develop its research agenda in the area of health economics in 2001. It was a partner in an NH&MRC application for work to undertake research into the economics of health that would have provided work to the value of about $100,000 per year for three years. Unfortunately the application was rated highly but unsuccessful. A further application for work in the health economics area was made to the NH&MRC in the area of mental health, in the latter part of 2001. The LSF collaborated with the Productivity Commission to organise a roundtable on economics of health issues. A major project that continued in 2001 was an investigation of the returns to higher education and associated issues. Two papers were written. David Johnson and Roger Wilkins of the Melbourne Institute wrote a report for the University titled ‘The Net Benefit to Government of Higher Education: A “Balance Sheet” Approach’. Jeff Borland of the Economics Department wrote a paper calculating private and social returns to students from different discipline areas from investment in higher education. The project was sponsored by the Vice-Chancellor at the University of Melbourne. Public Economics Forums Four Public Economics Forums were held in Canberra during 2001. The first, on the subject of the macroeconomic outlook and monetary policy, was successful and attracted a large audience of public servants, parliamentarians and others. The second was on the subject of higher education, the third on the Job Network and the fourth on economic and social issues in education and parenting. Australian Social Monitor The Australian Social Monitor aims to monitor and analyse important social trends and attitudes. The goal is to publish work that is based on authoritative results from rigorous quantitative analyses that are peer-reviewed and based on large representative national sample surveys. Articles on economic sociology, labour economics, social and economic policy, electoral behaviour, and the determinants of social, economic and political attitudes are particularly welcome. Family, education, work, inequality and public opinion are key topics.

In 2001 six issues of the Australian Social Monitor were published, two to complete volume 3 and four in volume 4. From volume 4 the Australian Social Monitor was and will be published four times a year.

Staffing The LSF program calls on the services of 12 researchers and four support people (in addition to the front office). About a third of our research capability is in new appointments so settling in the new staff is a top priority. Two new Research Fellows started with the LSF at the start of 2001, Roger Wilkins and Guyonne Kalb. Hsein Kew started work in May as a Research Officer and has developed into a valuable member of the MITTS modelling team where most of his work lies. Associate Professor Bruce Headey joined the Melbourne Institute as a full-time Associate following his retirement as Director of the Centre of Public Policy at the University of Melbourne. Simon Freidin joined the HILDA team as the Database Manager.

Enterprise Performance Research SPIRT Project on Enterprise Performance The Performance of Government Trading Enterprises Pre- and Post-Reform During the 1990s there were several measures introduced to improve the efficiency and financial performance of government trading enterprises in Australia. Joanne Loundes has investigated whether there has been any change in the financial performance of government trading enterprises operating in electricity, gas, water, railways and ports industries as a result of these changes. She did not find any noticeable enhancement in the financial performance of most of these businesses, although railways From left to right: Dr Jong-Say Yong, Ms Kelly Jarvis, Ms Joanne Loundes, Associate Professor Tim Fry and Dr Elizabeth Webster have improved slightly, from a low base. Innovation and Performance: Benchmarking Australian Firms This study by Simon Feeny and Mark Rogers has empirically analysed the link between innovation and performance using a sample of large Australian firms, with a specific aim of developing benchmarking tools. Innovation is measured by firmsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; investment in R&D and applications for patents, trademarks and designs. An innovation index is constructed which incorporates a firmâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s innovative activities into a single figure after accounting for firm size. The index provides a ranking of the most innovative firms in Australia. Firms which have a higher (and lower) than expected performance outcome from their innovative activities are also identified. The Effect of Diversification on Firm Performance Mark Rogers has analysed the association between diversification and firm performance in a sample of up to 1,449 large Australian firms (1994 to 1997). Firm performance is measured by profitability and, for quoted firms, market value. Results from the full sample show that more focused firms have higher profitability. This result controls for firm-specific effects and other determinants of profitability. However, this association is not found in sub-sample regressions for listed firms. This is true both when either profitability or market value are used as a performance measure. The results may indicate that listed firms may be under closer scrutiny and competitive pressures that ensure, on average, that these firms are at their optimal degree of diversification. Enterprise Bargaining and Productivity: Evidence from the Business Longitudinal Survey The 1990s has seen bargaining and, more specifically, enterprise bargaining supplant arbitration as the dominant industrial relations paradigm. In large part, this change reflects widespread belief that enterprise bargaining would stimulate greater levels of productivity. Evidence in support of this link between enterprise bargaining and productivity, however, is both scant and unconvincing. In this study, Yi-Ping Tseng and Mark Wooden have re-visited the relationship between enterprise bargaining and productivity using data from the Business Longitudinal Survey. 24

Estimation of a simple production function using a random effects model revealed evidence of a strong contemporaneous relationship between registered enterprise agreements and productivity. Indeed, firms where all employees are on such agreements are estimated to have productivity levels that are 8.8 per cent higher than comparable firms but where no employees are covered by an enterprise agreement and are forced instead to rely on conditions specified in an industry award. However, despite this finding, it still proved impossible to establish a direct causal relationship between the introduction of enterprise agreements and subsequent productivity growth.

SPIRT Project with Business Council of Australia and CEDA Industrial relations reform has been an important thrust of Australian governments since the mid 1980s. At the same time there has been a great deal of change in the way that Australian enterprises have conducted their industrial relations. Hitherto, there has not been a thorough empirical analysis of the effect of these changes, either on the attitudes of Australian employees, or on the performance of Australian workplaces and enterprises. This project aims to examine the factors that influence the corporate approach to industrial relations and the effect of corporate approaches to industrial relations on the profitability of large enterprises in Australia. The study will in addition identify whether firms identified as pursuing a ‘pro-reform’ agenda in the area of employee relations are the better performing firms, and will explore any causal linkages that might explain the findings.

The R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard The 2001 edition of the R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard was released in early November. The Scoreboard is compiled by the Melbourne Institute, with assistance from IBISWorld and IP Australia. For the second year in a row, ResMed is at the top of the ‘Innovation Index’, which incorporates a company’s R&D, patent, trademark and design applications into a single figure. Out of the 50 Australian businesses listed in the Innovation Index table, 36 have regularly been members of the top 50 since 1998. Of these, 16 operate in the research-intensive Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing industry, with a further eight in Petroleum, Coal, Chemical and Associated Product Manufacturing. Although businesses may invest in R&D, patents, trademarks and designs, such investment does not always lead to the commercial launch of a new product or service. In order to supplement our information on R&D expenditure, patents, trademarks and designs, the Melbourne Institute conducted a survey asking firms about the extent of innovation within their business. The results indicate that product and process innovation is not always related to ‘inventions’, as measured by trademarks, patents and designs. Sony Australia, for example, had relatively few trademark applications in Australia for 1999, yet the vast majority of revenue over the past three years was from the launch of new products. Product launch is not the only source of innovation in firms. Process innovation is often believed to have a greater influence on profits, as such innovations are typically employed to improve efficiency. However, the results from our survey indicate that process innovation is correlated with product innovation, suggesting that innovative firms are likely to be innovative across the board.

The Rise in Intangible Capital and Labour Market Segmentation An area of interest for Elizabeth Webster is the implications for the labour market of the growing importance of intangible capital in the economy. Her thesis is that labour is becoming an important asset vis-à-vis physical capital as the asset structures of firms change over time. The peculiarities of labour assets are that they appreciate with usage rather than depreciate. In contrast with physical capital, over-use leads to an increase in their value and under-use leads to an erosion. The more able or those considered to have the most potential are generally recruited to the asset sector of the labour market where positive work experiences are reinforcing while the less able or those considered to have less potential are excluded. Accordingly, the work experiences and skills of the labour force become more polarised.

Individuals’ Wage Changes in Australia 1997–2000 Yi-Ping Tseng has examined Australian household data from over 4,000 individuals to assess how downwardly flexible nominal wages have been during the period 1997–2000. The data indicate that there is considerable downward rigidity. Only 7.4 per cent of workers who are still working the same hours in the same job experienced a cut in pay over the previous year. People in low-income households, unskilled and part-time workers and workers reliant upon the Safety Net (i.e. their wages are determined solely by award) are more likely to have received a pay cut than others. 25

Modelling Firm Innovation Using Panel Probit Estimators Mark Harris, Mark Rogers and Anthony Siouclis (from Monash University) have investigated firm-level innovation using three probit panel estimators, which control for unobserved heterogeneity, and a standard probit estimator. Results indicate the standard probit model is misspecified and that inter-firm networks are important for innovation.

Modelling the Effective Tax Rates of Australian Tax Entities Two reports completed during 2001 by Mark Harris and Simon Feeny are the final in the series of reports relating to a joint research project between the Australian Taxation Office and the Melbourne Institute. They estimated the probability that individual taxation entities are paying too little company tax given their entity-specific characteristics.

TOWARDS OPPORTUNITY AND PROSPERITY CONFERENCE On 4 and 5 April 2002, the Melbourne Institute and The Australian held their first joint Economic and Social Outlook Conference, entitled Towards Opportunity and Prosperity. This will be reported more fully in the 2002 Annual Report. However, as the planning of the conference was a major activity in 2001 and the conference took place prior to the production of this Annual Report, we provide a brief report on it here. The conference covered such issues as: • Australia’s economic and social performance in the areas Mr Ian Macfarlane, Governor of the Reserve Bank, of productivity, inequality etc. • Globalisation: world trade, living standards and inequality addressing the Gala Dinner • Education and the knowledge economy • Higher education reform • Population policy • Work and family • Ageing and retirement • The environment: Should we sign the Kyoto Protocol? • The Trade Practices Act and the branch office economy • Industrial relations and the ‘the new labour market’ • Competition policy, tax reform and other microeconomic reform The conference was opened by the Governor-General, Dr Peter Hollingworth, and speakers included leading academics, politicians, public servants, business people, and representatives of community groups. International experts, such as Gary Burtless (Brookings Institution), Alan Duncan (University of Nottingham), Robert Drago (Pennsylvania State University), joined together with leading Australian academics to discuss these major issues with important public figures. Speakers from the Melbourne Institute included Peter Dawkins, Mark Wooden, David Johnson, Don Harding, Peter Summers, Rosanna Scutella and Roger Professor Alan Gilbert, Vice-Chancellor, Wilkins, as well as Adjunct Professors Jeff Borland and John Freebairn. The University of Melbourne, with the The leading politicians involved included Federal Government Ministers, Tony Victorian State Premier, Mr Steve Bracks, at the conference lunch Abbott, Amanda Vanstone, Brendan Nelson and Kevin Andrews, and leading members of the Opposition, Simon Crean, Jenny Macklin, Mark Latham and Wayne Swan. The leader of the Democrats, Senator Natasha Stott Despoja, was also a speaker. Many other leading figures from government and business were also speakers, such as Ken Henry (Secretary of the Treasury), Allan Fels (ACCC Chairman), Graeme Samuel (National Competition Council Chairman), Gary Banks (Productivity Commission Chairman), Dennis Trewin (the Australian Statistician), Sharan Burrow (ACTU President), John Schubert (BCA President), Stan Wallis (Coles Myer Chairman) and Greg Bourne (Regional President of BP). The speech at the Gala Dinner was given by the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Ian Macfarlane, who talked about ‘The Australian Economy: Past Present and Future’. He highlighted the importance of having some outstanding universities in Australia and the case for higher education reform. These comments were much publicised in the media and provided a springboard for Brendan Nelson’s presentation to the conference the following day, on higher education reform. The conference was covered extensively in The Australian and other media and a book from the conference, being edited by Peter Dawkins and Paul Kelly, will be released in 2003. We were very grateful to the Productivity Commission, the University of Melbourne and the ABS who were conference sponsors. A special thank you also to David Armstrong (then Editor in Chief), Michael Stutchbury (Editor) and all those from The Australian, with whom we cooperated in this joint venture. More details of the conference and a more complete listing of speakers will be included in the 2002 Annual Report. 27

CONTRIBUTIONS TO POLICY ANALYSIS AND DEBATES One of the Melbourne Institute’s strategic objectives is to contribute strongly to economic policy analysis, discussion and development in Australia. Examples in 2001 included: • The Melbourne, Canberra and Sydney forums in March focused on the macroeconomic outlook. About 100 people attended each and we received very positive feedback on all three events. • The Melbourne, Canberra and Sydney forums in June focused on higher education policy. • The Melbourne, Canberra and Sydney forums in August or early September focused on the Job Network with special reference to the recent OECD report. About 350 people attended the three events. A Policy Forum in the Australian Economic Review will result. • The forums in December focused on economic and social issues in education and parenting (in Canberra), economic and social issues for business and government (in Melbourne), and downsizing in Australia (in Sydney as a joint function with CEDA). • Don Harding published an article on the macroeconomic impact of the oil price shock in the Mercer–Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, which created considerable interest at the forums. • Our ongoing economic indicators (e.g. Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index and Leading Index of Economic Activity) and forecasts continue to create considerable interest. • Our Social Policy Research Agenda involves a substantial research endeavour to inform current social policy discussions. • Mark Wooden has made many presentations to public audiences in various cities about the HILDA survey. • Mark Wooden was a speaker at a CEDA conference on Job Security in February/March 2001. • Peter Dawkins was appointed as a member of the Welfare Reform Consultative Forum in December 2000. It has been meeting regularly with the relevant ministers and public servants this year, to provide feedback on the government welfare reform policy proposals. • Peter Dawkins gave one of the Fred Gruen Lectures at the ANU in April on the subject of ‘The Industrial Safety Net and the Social Safety Net: Reflections of One of the Five Economists’. • Peter Dawkins’ report to the Business Council of Australia (with Simon Lambert, Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer) on a Quantitative Analysis of a Wage Tax Trade-Off was released in February. • We held ‘working conferences’ for about 40 people on Health Economics and Policy (in May) and Unemployment (August). • The Melbourne Institute was a co-host of a conference on Creating Jobs: the Role of Government, at the ANU in September. Peter Dawkins and Elizabeth Webster presented papers and Peter Summers was a discussant. • A public conference on International Business Cycles was held on 8–9 November by the Centre for Business Cycle Analysis. • The planning of our April 2002 Economic and Social Outlook Conference with The Australian was well developed. • Mark Wooden has received extensive coverage in the media in connection with his analysis of trends in working hours in Australia. • ‘Policy Forums’ were published in each issue of the Australian Economic Review, and included ‘Welfare Reform’, ‘Higher Education Funding’, ‘The Economics of Health and Health Policy’, and ‘Macroeconomic Policy and Exchange Rates’.

The Age, 2 February 2001

Microeconomic reform will boost R&D investment Peter Dawkins on the profits powered by research and innovations

Sydney Morning Herald, 30 April 2001

How consumer confidence surveys affect consumer confidence On the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Indexes of Consumer Sentiment

The Australian Financial Review, 6 April 2001

Dollar recovery On Glenn Stevens’ speech at the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum

The Australian Financial Review, 3 July 2001

GST short term benefits hard to find David Johnson on how the GST provides an incentive to work, but not to save

The Age, 1 August 2001

The survivors of downsizing Peter Dawkins upon the release of the report, Downsizing: Is it working for Australia?

Bulletin with Newsweek, 20 September 2001

Good-looking people get paid more On the lecture by Professor Daniel Hamermesh, a visitor to the Melbourne Institute

The Age, 27 November 2001

Working hours and overtime negotiation is best left to workers and managers, Australian Industrial Commission told On Mark Wooden’s report to the Industrial Relations Commission as an expert witness on working hours

The Australian, 27 November 2001

Towards Opportunity and Prosperity 2002 will hope to provoke national debate about economic and social challenges On the Towards Opportunity and Prosperity Conference

The Australian, 13 June 2001

Higher education suffering a shortfall On the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum quarterly luncheon 2.01

MELBOURNE INSTITUTE BUSINESS ECONOMICS FORUM IN MELBOURNE In 2001, the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Melbourne continued into its fifth year and generated considerable interest. Memberships fell from 25 members in 2000 to 22 members in 2001. The four quarterly forums were well attended. Breakfasts were held on 29 March, 5 June and 10 September 2001, as well as a luncheon on 27 November, at the Hotel Sofitel, Grand Hyatt or Park Hyatt in Melbourne. At each forum, the Melbourne Instituteâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s forecasts were presented and discussed, and special topics Dr Peter Summers delivering the were canvassed such as the macroeconomic outlook and monetary policy, higher quarterly forecasts education, the Job Network, and economic and social issues for business and government. In addition to Melbourne Institute researchers, Mr Don Harding and Dr Peter Summers, a number of external commentators were involved in the forums. These included Professor Bruce Chapman (ANU), Mr Saul Eslake (ANZ), Professors Alan Gilbert, Stephen King and Peter Lloyd (The University of Melbourne), Professor Jonathan Kelley (ANU), Mr Alan Oster (NAB), Professor Peter Sheehan (Victoria University of Technology), Dr Peter Shergold (Department of Education, Science and Training) and an overseas guest speaker, Dr Gary Burtless (Brookings Institution). The chairman was Mr Tony Cole (Mercer Investment Consulting).

Mr Don Harding speaking about the macroeconomic outlook and monetary policy

Mr Alan Oster, Mr Tony Cole (Chairman of the quarterly forums) and Dr Peter Summers at quarterly breakfast 4.01 on economic and social issues for business and government

Members Gold

Associate

Business Council of Australia Department of Innovation, Industry and Regional Development Department of Treasury and Finance Mercer Investment Consulting The University of Melbourne

ANZ Banking Group CEDA City of Melbourne Department of Premier and Cabinet Holden IBISWorld MindShare Australia National Competition Council Productivity Commission Shell Australia Urban Land Corporation Victorian Workcover Authority

Individual Institute for Private Enterprise Moreland City Council National Institute of Accountants The Salvation Army Victorian Auditor Generalâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Office

MELBOURNE INSTITUTE BUSINESS ECONOMICS FORUM IN SYDNEY In 2001, we commenced the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Sydney. In its first year, it made a good start in a highly competitive market. Memberships for the first year reached eight. The four quarterly forums were well attended. Luncheons were held on 5 April, 7 June, 12 September and 29 November 2001 at the Wentworth and Hilton Hotels as well as CEDA. The first forum was launched with a discussion of the macroeconomic outlook and monetary policy by researchers of the Melbourne Institute as well as Mr Bill Evans, General Manager of Economics at Westpac. Mr Don Harding, Mr Glenn Stevens, Mr Geoff Martin, Mr Bill Evans and Dr Peter Summers at the inaugural The following keynote speech on ‘Aspects of Australia’s Current Economic Situation’ by Mr Glenn Stevens, Deputy Governor of the luncheon 1.01 Reserve Bank of Australia, received much media attention. At subsequent forums, the Melbourne Institute’s forecasts were presented and discussed, and special topics were canvassed such as higher education, the Job Network, and downsizing in Australia. The last mentioned forum was a joint function with CEDA’s Sydney office, and was well received by their members and other invited guests. In addition to Melbourne Institute researchers, Mr Don Harding, Dr Peter Summers and Dr Mariah Evans, a number of other commentators were involved in the forums. These included Mr Bill Evans at the inaugural Professor Bruce Chapman (ANU) Professor John Ingleson (UNSW), Mr Andrew luncheon 1.01 on macroeconomic Norton (The University of Melbourne), Dr Peter Shergold (Department of Education, outlook and monetary policy Science and Training) and an overseas guest speaker, Dr Gary Burtless (Brookings Institution). The chairman was Mr Tony Cole (Mercer Investment Consulting).

Members Gold

Associate

Individual

ING Mercer Investment Consulting Reserve Bank of Australia Westpac Banking Corporation

Idea Works

Command Auto Group Department of Fair Trading The Smith Family

Mr Tony Cole CHAIRMAN OF THE QUARTERLY FORUMS

Members of the Western Australian Business Economics Forum in Perth (joint venture with IRIC, Curtin University of Technology) Australia Post BankWest CCD Australia City of Perth Curtin Business School, Curtin University of Technology Department of Land Administration Department of Productivity and Labour Relations Department of Resources and Development Evans and Tate Graduate School of Business

John Coombes and Co Landcorp Leader of the Opposition, West Australian Parliament Lotteries Western Australia Office Gas Access Regulation Reserve Bank of Australia WA Treasury Department Western Power Corporation Westralia Airports Corporation Woodside Energy

MELBOURNE INSTITUTE PUBLIC ECONOMICS FORUM IN CANBERRA

Dr Ken Henry CO-CHAIRMAN OF THE

Dr Michael Keating CO-CHAIRMAN OF THE

Mr Tony Cole CO-CHAIRMAN OF THE

QUARTERLY LUNCHEONS

In 2001 the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra continued into its third year and generated considerable interest. Membership increased from 17 members in 2000 to 19 members in 2001. The four quarterly forums were well attended. Luncheons were held on 4 April, 12 June, 30 August and 22 November at the Hyatt Hotel and Old Parliament House in Canberra. At each luncheon, the Melbourne Instituteâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s news was presented, and special topics were canvassed such as the macroeconomic outlook and monetary policy, higher education, the Job Network, and economic and social issues for business and government. In addition to Melbourne Institute researchers, Mr Don Harding and Dr Peter Summers, guest speakers included Professor Bruce Chapman (ANU), Professor Meredith Edwards (University of Canberra), Professors Alan Gilbert and Stephen King and Dr Mariah Evans (The University of Melbourne), Professors Robert Gregory AO, Glenn Withers AO and Jonathan Kelley (ANU), Dr Stephen Kates (ACCI), Mr Chris Richardson (Access Economics), Dr Peter Shergold (Department of Education, Science and Training) and an overseas guest speaker, Dr Peter Scherer (OECD). The Chairmen were Mr Tony Cole (Mercer Investment Consulting), Dr Michael Keating (ANU), and Dr Ken Henry (Commonwealth Treasury) who took the role upon the retirement of Mr Ted Evans.

Members Gold Australian Taxation Office Department of Family and Community Services Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources Parliamentary Library

Associate Australian Bureau of Statistics Department of Transport and Regional Economics Public Service and Merit Protection Commission

Professor Peter Dawkins, Dr Peter Scherer, Dr Ken Henry, Dr Peter Shergold and Professor Bob Gregory at quarterly luncheon 3.01 on the Job Network

Individual Australian Bureau of Statistics Department of Defence Department of Employment and Workplace Relations Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet Department of the Parliamentary Reporting Health Services Australia New Zealand High Commission Queensland Investment Corporation

Professors Meredith Edwards, Jonathan Kelley and Peter Dawkins, Dr Mariah Evans and Professor Glenn Withers at quarterly luncheon 4.01 on economic and social issues in education and parenting

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLES AND THE IMPACT ON AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE

Mr Alan Oster and Dr Peter Summers at a symposium discussing the economic outlook since September 11

Ms Penny Smith and Dr Farshid Varhid discussing leading and coincident indicators Dr Andrew Stone, Mr Timothy Kam and Dr Kalvinder Shields discussing monetary policy in an uncertain environment

The Melbourne Institute held the third of its biennial conferences on forecasting and business cycle analysis on 8–9 November 2001 at the University of Melbourne. In light of recent world events including the terrorist attacks on the United States and the collapse of Ansett Airlines, the focus was on international business cycles and their impact on Australia. The Melbourne Institute’s researchers, Mr Don Harding and Dr Peter Summers, were joined by national experts on international business cycles from the OECD, the USA, UK and New Zealand and a number of prominent Australian academics and representatives of business and the community sector. Notable speakers included Professor Peter Dawkins, Dr Ólan Henry, Mr Timothy Kam, Dr Kalvinder Shields and Ms Penny Smith (The University of Melbourne), Mr Bill Evans (Westpac Banking Corporation), Dr Barry Hughes (Credit Suisse Asset Management), Professor Allan Layton (Queensland University of Technology), Mr Alan Oster (National Australia Bank), Dr Glenn Otto (University of New South Wales), Dr Andrew Stone (Reserve Bank of Australia) and Dr Farshid Varhid (Monash University). The Melbourne Institute’s Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Analysis Research Program is notable for its emphasis on combining modern econometric techniques with the methods developed by Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell at the United States National Bureau of Economic Research. The objective of the conference was to convey the results and practical implications of that research to a broad audience from business, government and academia. Presentations at the conference covered the four broad areas of: • International transmission of business cycles; • Measuring and monitoring business cycles; • Issues related to the practical conduct of monetary policy; and • Coincident and leading indicators. In addition, there was a highly topical symposium on the economic outlook in light of the terrorist attacks in the United States, the collapse of Ansett and other recent events. A small but focused group of 36 people from Australia and New Zealand attended the conference. They represented commonwealth, state and local government, academia, banking and investment, embassies and the media. The papers presented at the conference were placed on the Melbourne Institute’s website and the topic of the economic outlook in light of the terrorist attacks in the United States was further addressed in the fourth issue for 2001 of the Mercer–Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends.

ROUNDTABLE ON HEALTH POLICY The Productivity Commission and the Melbourne Institute convened a Roundtable on Health Policy, with about 40 attendees, in March 2002. Sessions included: • international developments in health policy; • addressing cost pressures in health-care systems; • access and service delivery issues; and • supplier-induced demand and occupational regulation. Speakers included international visitors Professor Alan Maynard from York in the UK, and Professor Tom Rice from the University of California (Berkeley), as well as a range of Australian experts. The proceedings have now been published and were released at the Melbourne Institute’s Business Economics and Public Economics Forums in Melbourne and Canberra in June 2002.

Dr Jim Butler, Ms Jane Halton, Mr David Borthwick and Ms Helen Owens at the quarterly luncheon 2.02 of the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra

Members of the Roundtable, Professor Peter Dawkins, Ms Helen Owens, Professor John Freebairn and Mr John Paterson, discuss the proceedings of the health policy roundtable at the quarterly breakfast 2.02 of the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Melbourne

PUBLICATIONS BY SUBSCRIPTION Melbourne Institute Economic and Social Journals Australian Economic Review in 2001 The Australian Economic Review continued to attract a healthy supply of contributed articles during 2001. The front cover of the Review was changed, with an orange band added to conform to the distinctive blue and orange livery of the Melbourne Institute. The collaboration with Blackwells continues and it was pleasing to note in the 2001 annual report that revenue increased from $119,000 to $129,000. The increase is due to increased price, rising electronic subscriptions and rising rights and permissions fees. The number of hardcopy subscriptions remains static. In 2001, Professor Mark Wooden joined the panel of joint editors for contributed papers, replacing Professor John Creedy who retired at the end of 2000 after ten years of sterling service. Nilss Olekalns remained ‘For the Student’ editor, David Johnson remained managing editor and ‘Data Survey’ editor, and Stephen King became ‘Policy Forum’ editor. The format of the Australian Economic Review continued with the style that has been developed over recent years: the ‘Contributed Articles’ section continued to attract a strong rate of submission; ‘Policy Forums’ were published in four issues in 2001, and included ‘Welfare Reform’, ‘Higher Education Funding’, ‘The Economics of Health and Health Policy’, and ‘Macroeconomic Policy and Exchange Rates’. Each issue contained a ‘For the Student’ article: ‘Starting Research’, ‘Outsourcing Public Employment Services: The Australian Experience’, ‘Currency Unions, Currency Boards and Other Fixed Exchange Rate Arrangements’, and ‘Cost Benefit Analysis in Theory and Practice’. There were three ‘Data Survey’ articles: ‘Data for the Study of Road Crashes in Australia’, ‘A Hitchhiker’s Guide to the World’s Household Panel Data Sets’, and ‘The Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia’. In 2001, the Review published 45 articles, up on 39 published in 2000. The size of the Review was considerably more with a total of 487 pages. In Table 2, we show the distribution of articles by type for the last four years. Table 2: Published Articles in 1998–2001 Type of Article

1998

1999

2000

2001

Invited Articles Contributed Articles Policy Forum Data Surveys For the Student Pages

0 16 19 2 4 444

1 15 19 2 4 422

1 17 13 4 4 387

1 17 20 3 4 487

In 2001 we received 56 submissions in the Contributed Articles section, more than the previous year’s 39 submissions. Table 3 shows the number of submissions for the years 1998 to 2001. The acceptance rate for papers that have been published has been 34 per cent over the past four years (papers published as a percentage of submissions).

Table 3: Submissions in 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001* Contributed Papers

Brought forward from previous year** Submissions during year Decisions made Accepted: Published Accepted: In queue Rejected/withdrawn Resubmit In process

1998

1999

2000

2001

31 38 69

29 54 83

37 40 77

30 56 86

16 3 24 11 15 69

15 3 31 12 22 83

17 2 30 11 17 77

17 2 31 7 13 86

*Contributed articles only. **Sum of acceptances in queue, re-submissions and articles in process.

Australian Social Monitor The Australian Social Monitor aims to monitor and analyse important social trends and attitudes. The Australian Social Monitor is published with support from the International Social Science Surveys/Australia and ANUTECH at the Australian National University. Between us several important social and economic surveys are conducted. These include the IsssA which is Australia’s leading academic survey and co-founder of the 34-nation International Social Survey Programme.

Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends The Quarterly Bulletin is sponsored by William M. Mercer Pty Ltd and provides an authoritative analysis of international, national and state economic environments, with a particular focus on the state economies and on reading the business cycle. In addition, two issues cover a special topic considered to be of particular interest. The special topics covered in 2001 included the economic outlook after September 11, a simple macroeconomic analysis of the aftermath of the terrorist attacks, and macroeconomic effects of petrol prices.

Melbourne Institute Economic and Social Indicators Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity Published monthly the Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity examines movements in leading, coincident and lagging indicators of economic activity in Australia, together with comparative data from overseas. It also includes a quarterly leading index of inflation. Indices of economic activity are designed to enhance the decision making process of financial and business managers by anticipating and identifying turning points in the economy. Each index blends several variables that reflect different aspects of the economy; their combination is intended to give a more representative picture than any one indicator would by itself.

Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment The Consumer Sentiment Index is the average of five responses on consumers’ evaluation of their household financial situation over the past year, the coming year and the next five years, anticipations of economic conditions over the coming year and the next five years and a view on buying conditions for major household items; assessments of future unemployment are also recorded. Each quarter, consumers are also surveyed on their views on buying conditions for cars and dwellings, the wisest place for savings and economic news recall. This report is produced monthly.

Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment (NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia) Each quarter we present the same consumer sentiment data as in the Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment (except news recall data) on consumer sentiment for NSW, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations The Melbourne Institute Consumer Inflationary Expectations measures are designed to represent the average householder’s expected rate of consumer price rises over the coming twelve months. The survey is a direct measure of inflationary expectations as consumers are surveyed on whether and by how much they believe prices will go up or down. The report is produced monthly.

ING – Melbourne Institute Household Saving Report The Household Saving Report contains data on householders’ current savings behaviour, reasons for savings, current household asset and debt structure and their assessment of the best ways to hold assets. The report is produced quarterly.

Poverty Lines: Australia Poverty Lines: Australia is a quarterly newsletter that updates the ‘Henderson Poverty Line’ as defined in the 1973 Commonwealth Commission of Inquiry into Poverty. The Poverty Lines are standard reference material for those concerned with social welfare policy in Australia. The income levels of various sized families are used to ascertain when and where a poverty situation occurs.

Melbourne Institute Wages Report The Wages Survey records employees (self-reported) wage changes over the previous twelve-month period. This survey has been designed to capture the growth in wage rates. The report is produced quarterly.

Other Melbourne Institute Publications Produced in 2001 The R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard 2001: Benchmarking Innovation in Australian Enterprises This publication is the most comprehensive to date of the innovative activities of large Australian enterprises. It provides an invaluable information source for benchmarking and competitor analysis. The innovative activities covered by the report contain the latest available information on the level of R&D and applications for intellectual property (patents, trademarks and designs). The report includes an innovation index, ranking Australiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most innovative firms, R&D expenditure and intensity for parent companies, the level and intensity of intellectual property applications (patents, trademarks and designs) for parent companies, industry rankings (all measures combined) and innovation and internet usage during 1999â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2000. This is the fourth report produced in this series. Downsizing: Is it Working for Australia? This publication is the second volume of a major study (conducted by the Melbourne Institute and funded by the Myer Foundation in association with CEDA) of the impact of downsizing in Australia. The report assesses the impact of downsizing on employees and organisational structures in Australia. Findings include: older workers are more likely to be employed in downsizing firms than their younger peers, exit rates are higher for older workers and they have significantly lower chances of finding re-employment, men are more likely than women to experience downsizing, and workers in major urban areas are more exposed to downsizing. Also, the majority of employees leaving downsizing firms find other work without a significant increase in the period of unemployment between jobs, or drop in pay.

STAFF PUBLICATIONS, SEMINARS, PRESENTATIONS AND MEDIA COVERAGE Contributions to Books Dawkins, P J, ‘The Labour Market and International Competitiveness’, in A Bloch and P D Kenyon eds, Creating an International Competitive Economy, Basingstoke, Palgrave, 2001, 51–71. Summers, P M, ‘A Bayesian VAR Forecasting Model of the Chinese Economy’, in P J Lloyd and X Zhang eds, Models of the Chinese Economy, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2001, 290–304. Summers, P M, ‘Export-Led Growth in Asia: Long Run Relationships and Structural Change’, in A Bloch and P D Kenyon eds, Creating an International Competitive Economy, Basingstoke, Palgrave, 2001, 191–206. Webster, E M, Dockery, M, Bainger, T and Kelly, R, ‘Training for the Skilled Trades in Australia: 1980 to 2000’, in Training Reforms in Australian Apprenticeships: Research Readings, Adelaide, National Centre for Vocational Education Research, 2001, 179–198. Wooden, M P, ‘Efficiency in Markets: Labour and Industrial Relations’, in J Nieuwenhuysen, P J Lloyd and M Mead eds, Reshaping Australia’s Economy: Growth with Equity and Sustainability, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2001, 229–241.

Refereed Journal Articles Boehm, E A, ‘The Contribution of Economic Indicator Analysis to Understanding and Forecasting Business Cycles’, Indian Economic Review, Delhi, India, University of Delhi, Delhi School of Economics, 2001, 36: 1–36. Borland, J I, Dawkins, P J, Johnson, D T and Williams, R A, ‘Rates of Return to Investment in Higher Education’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 33–40. Bosworth, D L and Rogers, M L, ‘Market Value, R&D and Intellectual Property: An Empirical Analysis of Large Australian Firms’, Economic Record, Burwood, Australia, Economic Society of Australia, 2001, 77: 323–337. Chua, M C L and Griffiths, W E, ‘Bayesian Model Averaging in Consumer Demand Systems with Inequality Constraints’, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics – Revue Canadienne D’Agroeconomie, Ottawa, Canada, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society, 2001, 49: 269–292. Creedy, J, Duncan, A, Harris, M N and Scutella, R, ‘Wage Functions for Demographic Groups in Australia’, Australian Journal of Labour Economics, Murdoch, Australia, Murdoch University, 2001, 4: 296–317. Creedy, J and Scutella, R, ‘Earnings Distributions and Means-Tested Benefits’, Australian Economic Papers, United Kingdom, Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2001, 40: 373–386. Evans, M, ‘Does Informal Job Training Matter to Careers and Incomes’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 71–76. Evans, M, ‘Should Clerics Refrain from Politics: Australians’ Ideals, with International Comparisons’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 1–8. Evans, M, ‘Exits from Downsizing Firms’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 53–59. Evans, M and Kelley, J, ‘Educational Attainment of the Children of Divorce: Australia, 1940–1990’, Journal of Sociology, London, United Kingdom, Sage Publications Ltd, 2001, 37: 297–319. Evans, M and Kelley, J, ‘Downsizing: Employees’ Experiences’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 27–32. Evans, M and Kelley, J, ‘Are Tax Cheating and Welfare Fraud Wrong? Public Opinion in 29 Nations’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 93–102. Evans, M and Kelley, J, ‘Gender and Employment Biographies in Australia’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 103–105. 39

Evans, M and Kelley, J, ‘Trade-offs Between Time Spent on Work and Family Among Older Australians’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 79–82. Evans, M and Kelley, J, ‘Employment for Mothers of Pre-School Children: Evidence from Australia and 23 Other Nations’, People and Place, Melbourne, Australia, Centre for Population and Urban Research, Monash University, 2001, 9: 28–40. Evans, M, Kelley, J and Headey, B W, ‘Does Parental Marital Conflict Impair Their Children’s Education?’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 71–78. Harris, M N, ‘Modelling Export Flows in the APEC Region: Static and Dynamic Gravity Model Approaches’, Asia Pacific Journal of Economics and Business, Perth, Australia, Curtin University of Technology, 2001, 5: 97–118. Henry, O T, Olekalns, N and Summers, P M, ‘Exchange Rate Instability: A Threshold Autoregressive Approach’, Economic Record, Burwood, Australia, Economic Society of Australia, 2001, 77: 160–166. Kalb, G R, ‘Moving from Unemployment to Permanent Employment: Could a Casual Job Accelerate the Transition?’, Australian Economic Review, United Kingdom, Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2001, 34: 415–436. Kelley, J, ‘One Nation: Bane of the National Party?’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 77–87. Kelley, J, ‘Attitudes Towards Homosexuality in 29 Nations’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 15–22. Kelley, J, ‘Changing Educational Attainments of Women and Men in Twentieth Century Australia’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 63–66. Kelley, J and Evans, M, ‘Is There Life After Downsizing?’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 89–97. Kelley, J, Evans, M and Headey, B W, ‘Public Opinion on an Australian Republic: Changes Since the 1999 Referendum’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 41–45. Kelley, J, Evans, M and Headey, B W, ‘Marital Strife and Divorce in Australia’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 60–62. Loundes, J E, ‘Household Saving Behaviour in Australia’, Economic Papers, Australia, Economic Society of Australia, 2001, 20: 67–84. Loundes, J E, ‘Management and Industrial Relations Practices and Outcomes in Australian Workplaces’, Australian Journal of Labour Economics, Murdoch, Australia, Murdoch University, 2001, 4: 19–39. Scutella, R, ‘Labour Supply Estimates for Married Women in Australia’, Australian Journal of Labour Economics, Murdoch, Australia, Murdoch University, 2001, 4: 153–173. Sikora, J, ‘Is Corruption Necessary for Upward Mobility? Perceptions from 26 Nations in 1999/2000’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 83–88. Summers, P M, ‘Forecasting the Australian Economy During the Asian Crisis’, International Journal of Forecasting, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Elsevier Science BV, 2001, 17: 499–515. Webster, E M, ‘The Rise of Intangible Capital and Labour Market Segmentation’, Australian Bulletin of Labour, Australia, National Institute of Labour Studies Inc, 2001, 27: 258–271. Wooden, M P, ‘Are Non-Standard Jobs Sub-Standard Jobs?’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 65–70. Wooden, M P, ‘How Temporary Are Australia’s Casual Jobs?’, Work Employment and Society, United Kingdom, Sage Publications Ltd, 2001, 15: 875–883. Wooden, M P, ‘Industrial Relations Reform in Australia: Causes, Consequences and Prospects’, Australian Economic Review, United Kingdom, Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2001, 34: 243–262. Wooden, M P, ‘The Growth of “Unpaid” Working Time’, Economic Papers, Australia, Economic Society of Australia, 2001, 20: 29–44. Wooden, M P, ‘Union Wage Effects in the Presence of Enterprise Bargaining’, Economic Record, Burwood, Australia, Economic Society of Australia, 2001, 77: 1–18. Wooden, M P and Dawkins, P J, ‘Minimum Wages and the Fallacy of the Inflated Denominator’, Economic Papers, Australia, Economic Society of Australia, 2001, 20: 59–70.

Other Journal Articles Chua, M C L, Song, L L and Leahy, A E, ‘Forecasts for the States and Territories’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 9–15. Dawkins, P J, ‘The Case for Welfare Reform as Proposed by the McClure Report’, Australian Economic Review, United Kingdom, Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2001, 34: 86–99. Dawkins, P J, ‘The Economics of Health and Health Policy: An Introduction’, Australian Economic Review, United Kingdom, Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2001, 34: 291–294. Evans, M, ‘Do We Quarrel Over Housework?’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 32. Evans, M, ‘A Good System?’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 45. Evans, M, ‘Childlessness’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 47–48. Evans, M, ‘Marriage Among Seniors’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 89–90. Evans, M, ‘Spectrums of Political Support’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 107–108. Evans, M, ‘Increasing Seasonality of Births?’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 68. Evans, M, ‘Childhood Asthma Over Time’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 68. Evans, M and Kelley, J, ‘Greying Trade Unionists?’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 48. Evans, M and Kelley, J, ‘Maternal Employment: Moral Views’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 49. Evans, M and Kelley, J, ‘How Many Trade Union Members?’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 88. Evans, M and Kelley, J, ‘Jobs: Government’s Responsibility?’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 102. Evans, M and Kelley, J, ‘Management Reportcard’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 24–25. Harding, A D, ‘Macroeconomic Effects of Petrol Prices’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 1: 21–28. Harding, A D, ‘Assessing the Adequacy of Measures of Australia’s Price Competitiveness and Structural Change’, Australian Economic Review, United Kingdom, Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2001, 34: 458–466. Harding, A D, Song, L L and Summers, P M, ‘Australia: Outcomes and Outlook’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 2: 1–7. Headey, B W, ‘Social Capital: Australia is Well Endowed’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 62. Johnson, D T, ‘Introduction to Policy Forum on Welfare Reform’, Australian Economic Review, United Kingdom, Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2001, 34: 81–85. Johnson, D T, ‘Economic Issues in Health Policy’, Australian Economic Review, United Kingdom, Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2001, 34: 295–311. Kelley, J, ‘Safe When Home Alone?’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 8. Kelley, J, ‘Consequences of Working Long Hours’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 99–101.

Kelley, J and Evans, M, ‘Science: International Opinion’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 109–110. Leahy, A E, ‘Recent Shifts in Political Support’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 46. Leahy, A E, ‘Family Finances in the Next 12 Months’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 46. Leahy, A E, ‘Preferred Voting Patterns Over Time’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 106. Leahy, A E, ‘Economic Outlook: The Next 12 Months’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 106. Leahy, A E, ‘Major Party Preferences Over Time’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 23. Leahy, A E, ‘Consumer Sentiment Recovers from a Fall’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 23. Leahy, A E, ‘Recent Shifts in Political Support’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 67. Leahy, A E, ‘Economic Conditions: Next 12 Months’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 67. Leahy, A E, ‘Consumer Sentiment Recovers’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 98. Leahy, A E, ‘Recent Shifts in Political Support’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 98 Loundes, J E, ‘R&D and Intellectual Property’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 59. Scutella, R, ‘Jobless Households in Australia’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 69. Sikora, J, ‘Self-Employment by Industry: 1984–1999’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 50–51. Sikora, J, ‘Gender and Self-Employment’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 22. Song, L L, ‘The Aftermath of the Terrorist Attacks: A Simple Macroeconomic Analysis’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 20–22. Song, L L and Chua, M C L, ‘Forecasts for the States and Territories’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 9–15. Song, L L and Summers, P M, ‘Australia: Outcomes and Outlook’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 1: 1–5. Song, L L and Summers, P M, ‘Australia: Outcomes and Outlook’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 1–6. Song, L L and Summers, P M, ‘United States’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 1: 6–8. Song, L L and Summers, P M, ‘Australia: Outcomes and Outlook’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 1–6. Song, L L and Summers, P M, ‘United States’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 1: 6–8. Song, L L and Summers, P M, ‘United States’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 2: 8–9.

Song, L L and Summers, P M, ‘United States’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 7–8. Song, L L and Summers, P M, ‘Forecasts for the States and Territories’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 1: 9–14. Song, L L and Summers, P M, ‘Forecasts for the States and Territories’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 2: 10–16. Song, L L, Summers, P M and Leahy, A E, ‘Australia: Outcomes and Outlook’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 1–5. Song, L L, Summers, P M and Leahy, A E, ‘United States’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 6–8. Summers, P M, ‘The Economic Outlook After September 11’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 16–19. Summers, P M, ‘Melbourne Institute Leading Indexes of Employment’, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 3: 16–19. Webster, E M and Harding, G M, ‘Outsourcing Public Employment Services: The Australian Experience’, Australian Economic Review, United Kingdom, Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2001, 34: 231–242. Webster, E M and Johnson, D T, ‘The Equity of Labour Market Programs’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 40. Wooden, M P, ‘Trends in Extended Working Hours’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 78. Wooden, M P, ‘Long Working Hours: International Comparisons’, Australian Social Monitor, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, 4: 102–103.

Conference Proceedings Johnson, D T, ‘Reform of Indirect Taxation’, in R F I Smith ed., On the Way to the GST: Critical Analysis of the Proposals for Tax Reform in Australia in 1999, proceedings from the conference, Melbourne, 18 February 2001, Parkville, Australia, The Centre for Public Policy, 2001, 112–139.

Working Papers Boehm, E A, ‘The Contribution of Economic Indicator Analysis to Understanding and Forecasting Business Cycles’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 17/01. Creedy, J and Duncan, A, ‘Aggregating Labour Supply and Feedback Effects in Microsimulation’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 15/01. Creedy, J, Duncan, A, Kalb, G and Kew, H, ‘The Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS)’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 16/01. Creedy, J and Gemmell, N, ‘The Revenue Elasticity of Taxes in the UK’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 11/01. Creedy, J and Kalb, G, ‘Measuring Welfare Changes with Nonlinear Budget Constraints in Continuous and Discrete Hours Labour Supply Models’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 9/01. Creedy, J, Kalb, G and Kew, H, ‘The Effects of Flattening the Effective Marginal Rate Structure in Australia: Policy Simulations Using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 10/01. Dawkins, P, Gregg, P and Scutella, R, ‘The Growth of Jobless Households in Australia’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 3/01. 43

Duncan, A and Harris, M N, ‘Simulating the Behavioural Effects of Welfare Reforms Among Sole Parents in Australia’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 6/01. Feeny, S and Rogers, M, ‘Innovation and Performance: Benchmarking Australian Firms’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 7/01. Harris, M N, Gillman, M and Mátyás, L, ‘The Negative Inflation-Growth Effect: Theory and Evidence’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 12/01. Harris, M N, Rogers, M and Siouclis, A, ‘Modelling Firm Innovation Using Panel Probit Estimators’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 20/01. Kalb, G and Williams, J, ‘Delinquency and Gender’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 13/01. Loundes, J, ‘The Financial Performance of Australian Government Trading Enterprises Pre- and Post-Reform’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 5/01. Rogers, M, ‘The Effect of Diversification on Firm Performance’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 2/01. Song, L L, Freebairn, J and Harding, D, ‘Policy Options to Reduce Unemployment: TRYM Simulations’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 19/01. Song, L L and Webster, E, ‘How Segmented Are Skilled and Unskilled Labour Markets: The Case of Beveridge Curves’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 14/01. Tseng, Y-P, ‘Individuals’ Wage Changes in Australia 1997–2000’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 4/01. Tseng, Y-P and Wooden, M, ‘Enterprise Bargaining and Productivity: Evidence from the Business Longitudinal Survey’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 8/01. Webster, E and Bainger, T, ‘The Importance of Pecuniary and Non-Pecuniary Rewards in Job Choice’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 18/01. Webster, E and Johnson, D, ‘An Estimate of the Equity Effects of Labour Market Programs’, Melbourne, Australia, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2001, Working Paper no. 1/01.

Staff Seminars and Presentations Chapman, Bruce, ‘Special Topic: Financing Higher Education’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum quarterly breakfast, Melbourne, Hotel Sofitel, 5 June 2001. Chapman, Bruce, ‘Special Topic: Financing Higher Education’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum quarterly luncheon, Parkes, Old Parliament House, 12 June 2001. Chua, Chew Lian, ‘Bayesian Model Averaging in Consumer Demand Systems with Inequality Constraints’, paper presented at the ‘2001 Econometric Society Australasian Meetings’, Auckland, New Zealand, The University of Auckland, 6–8 July 2001. Dawkins, Peter, ‘Downsizing and Restructuring in Australia’, paper presented at the ‘Asia Pacific Change Leaders Symposium’ Melbourne, Marcus Evans, 15 October 2001. Dawkins, Peter, ‘Downsizing: Is it Working for Australia?’, speech at the launch of the ‘Downsizing: Is it Working for Australia?’ report, Melbourne, Committee for the Economic Development of Australia, 25 July 2001. Dawkins, Peter, ‘Employment, Joblessness and Welfare Reform in Australia’, paper presented at an employment forum, Melbourne, ACROD, 30 July 2001. Dawkins, Peter, ‘News from the Melbourne Institute’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum quarterly luncheon, Melbourne, Grand Hyatt, 27 November 2001. Dawkins, Peter, ‘Summary of the OECD Report’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum quarterly breakfast, Melbourne, Park Hyatt, 10 September 2001. Dawkins, Peter, ‘Summary of the OECD Report’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum quarterly luncheon, Parkes, Old Parliament House, 30 August 2001. 44

Dawkins, Peter, ‘The ‘Five Economist’s Plan’: The Original Ideas and Further Developments’, paper presented at the ‘Creating Jobs: The Role of Government Conference’, Canberra, The Australian National University, 9–10 September 2001. Dawkins, Peter, ‘The Social Security Safety Net and the Industrial Safety Net: Reflections of One of the ‘Five Economists’’, paper presented at the ‘Fred Gruen Lecture Series’, Canberra, The Australian National University, 6 April 2001. Dawkins, Peter, ‘Welcome and News from the Melbourne Institute (including Economic Forecasts and Research Findings on the Economics of Higher Education)’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum quarterly luncheon, Parkes, Old Parliament House, 12 June 2001. Dawkins, Peter, ‘Welcome and News from the Melbourne Institute (including Economic Forecasts and Research Update)’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum quarterly luncheon, Yarralumla, Hyatt Hotel Canberra, 22 November 2001. Dawkins, Peter, ‘Welcome and News from the Melbourne Institute’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum quarterly luncheon, Yarralumla, Hyatt Hotel Canberra, 4 April 2001. Dawkins, Peter, ‘Welfare Reform and the McClure Report’, paper presented at a seminar, Canberra, Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, 27 September 2001. Dawkins, Peter and Bosworth, Derek, ‘Private and Social Returns to Investment in R&D and Innovation and Implications for Public Policy’, paper presented at a seminar in Melbourne, Department of Premier and Cabinet, 29 June 2001. Dockery, Michael and Webster, Elizabeth, ‘Long Term Unemployment and Work Deprived Individuals’, paper presented at the ‘Creating Jobs: The Role of Government Conference’, Canberra, The Australian National University, 9–10 September 2001. Harding, Don, ‘Economic Update’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum quarterly breakfast, Melbourne, Hotel Sofitel, 5 June 2001. Harding, Don, ‘Non-Parametric Evidence on the Number and Nature of Equilibria in the Australian Unemployment Rate’, paper presented at the ‘Unemployment Conference’, Melbourne, Rydges Carlton, 16–17 August 2001. Harding, Don, ‘Overview of the Outlook for 2001 with a Special Emphasis on the Macroeconomic Effect of Petrol Pricing’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum quarterly breakfast, Melbourne, Hotel Sofitel, 29 March 2001. Harding, Don, ‘Overview of the Outlook for 2001 with a Special Emphasis on the Macroeconomic Effect of Petrol Pricing’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum quarterly luncheon, Yarralumla, Hyatt Hotel Canberra, 4 April 2001. Harding, Don, ‘Perspectives on Unemployment from a General Equilibrium Search Model’, paper presented at the ‘Unemployment Conference’, Melbourne, Rydges Carlton, 16–17 August 2001. Harding, Don, ‘Some Econometric Problems Arising from Regressions with Cyclical State’, paper presented at the ‘Econometric Society European Meetings’, Lausanne, Switzerland, Universite de Lausanne, 25–29 August 2001. Harding, Don, ‘Some Econometric Problems with Regression Using Constructed State Variables’, paper presented at the ‘Econometric Society Australasian Meetings’, Auckland, New Zealand, University of Auckland, 7–8 July 2001. Harding, Don, ‘Extracting, Analysing and Using Cyclical Information’, paper presented at the ‘International Business Cycles and the Impact on Australia Conference’, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 8–9 November 2001. Harding, Don and Pagan, Adrian, ‘Extracting, Analysing and Using Cyclical Information’, paper presented at the ‘Monitoring the Business Cycle Conference’, Rome, Banca d’Italia, 6–7 September 2001. Harris, Mark N, ‘Modelling EMTRs: Evidence from Australia’, paper presented at the ‘Industry Economics Conference’, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 11–12 July 2001. Johnson, David, ‘Economic Issues in Health Policy’, paper presented at the ‘Economics of Health and Health Policy Conference’, Melbourne, Productivity Commission, 24 May 2001. Johnson, David, ‘Families and Communities: A Stocktake of the Literature’, paper presented at the ‘Research Findings Workshop’, Canberra, Department of Family and Community Services, 12 December 2001. Kalb, Guyonne, ‘Demonstration of the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS)’, demonstration at the ‘Social Policy Research Services Workshop’, Canberra, Department of Family and Community Services, 12 December 2001.

Kalb, Guyonne, ‘Discussant of ‘The Impact of the Mutual Obligation Initiative on Income Support Recidivism’ by Linda Richardson’, discussion at the ‘Labour Econometrics Workshop’, Sydney, University of New South Wales, 10–11 August 2001. Kalb, Guyonne, ‘From Juvenile to Adult Offender: An Investigation into the Determinants of Juvenile Arrests and the Relationship between Juvenile and Adult Arrests’, paper presented at the ‘Econometric Society Australasian Meeting’, Auckland, New Zealand, University of Auckland, 6–8 July 2001. Kalb, Guyonne, ‘The Impact of Social Policy Initiatives on Labour Supply Incentives: A Review of the Literature’, paper presented at the ‘Unemployment Conference’, Melbourne, Rydges Carlton, 16–17 August 2001. Kelley, Jonathan, ‘Some Economic and Social Issues Relevant to Business and Government: Returns on Private Compared to Public Schooling, Attitudes to Economic Reform, Attitudes to Free Trade and Privatisation, Attitudes to Trade Unions and Centralised Negotiations’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum quarterly luncheon, Melbourne, Grand Hyatt, 27 November 2001. Kelley, Jonathan and Evans, Mariah, ‘Some Economic and Social Issues in Education and Parenting: Returns on Private Compared to Public Schooling, Mothers at Work and Children’s Education, The Use of Education at Work’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum quarterly luncheon, Yarralumla, Hyatt Hotel Canberra, 22 November 2001. Loundes, Joanne, ‘A Dynamic Panel Analysis of the Profitability of Tax Entities’, paper presented at the ‘Industry Economics Conference’, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 11–12 July 2001. Loundes, Joanne, ‘Industrial Relations Outcomes and Productivity Growth’, paper presented at the ‘30th Annual Conference of Economists’, Nedlands, University of Western Australia, 23–26 September 2001. Loundes, Joanne, ‘Innovation, Productivity and Profitability in Australian Enterprises’, paper presented at the ‘La Trobe Workshop Series’, Bundoora, La Trobe University, 1 June 2001. Loundes, Joanne, ‘The Dynamic Performance of Australian Enterprises’, paper presented at the ‘PhD Conference in Economics and Business’, Nedlands, University of Western Australia, 8–9 November 2001. Scutella, Rosanna, ‘The Growth of Jobless Households in Australia’, paper presented at the ‘30th Annual Conference of Economists’, Nedlands, University of Western Australia, 23–26 September 2001. Smith, Penny, ‘New Coincident Indicators for Australia’s Major Trading Partners’, paper presented at the ‘International Business Cycles and the Impact on Australia Conference’, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 8–9 November 2001. Smith, Penny, ‘Synchronisation of Business Cycles in the G7 Countries: Evidence from Bayesian Analysis of Markov Switching Models’, paper presented at the ‘2001 Econometric Society Australasian Meeting’, Auckland, New Zealand, The University of Auckland, 6–8 July 2001. Song, Lei Lei, Freebairn, John and Harding, Don, ‘Policy Options to Reduce Unemployment: TRYM Simulations’, paper presented at the ‘Unemployment Conference’, Melbourne, Rydges Carlton, 16–17 August 2001. Song, Lei Lei and Webster, Elizabeth, ‘How Segmented Are Skilled and Unskilled Markets: The Case of the Beveridge Curves’, paper presented at the ‘Unemployment Conference’, Melbourne, Rydges Carlton, 16–17 August 2001. Summers, Peter, ‘Economic Update and Forecasts’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum quarterly breakfast, Melbourne, Hotel Sofitel, 29 March 2001. Summers, Peter, ‘Economic Update and Forecasts’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum quarterly luncheon, Yarralumla, Hyatt Hotel Canberra, 4 April 2001. Summers, Peter, ‘Melbourne Institute Economic Update Including a New Leading Index of Employment’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum quarterly breakfast, Melbourne, Park Hyatt, 10 September 2001. Summers, Peter, ‘Melbourne Institute Economic Update’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum quarterly luncheon, Melbourne, Grand Hyatt, 27 November 2001. Summers, Peter, ‘New Leading Indexes of Employment from the Melbourne Institute’, presentation at the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum quarterly luncheon, Parkes, Old Parliament House, 30 August 2001. Summers, Peter, ‘Symposium: The Economic Outlook Since September 11’, paper presented at the ‘International Business Cycles and the Impact on Australia Conference’, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 8–9 November 2001.

Tseng, Yi-Ping and Tang, Kam-Ki, ‘Industry Specific Human Capital and Inter-industry Wage Differentials: A General Equilibrium Approach’, paper presented at the ‘30th Annual Conference of Economists’, Nedlands, University of Western Australia, 25 September 2001. Tseng, Yi-Ping (and Mark Wooden), ‘Enterprise Bargaining and Productivity: Evidence from the Business Longitudinal Survey’, paper presented at the ‘Industry Economics Conference’, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 11–12 July 2001. Webster, Elizabeth, ‘Award Restructuring and Career Paths’, paper presented at the ‘Research Forum on Australian Apprenticeships’, Melbourne, Eden on the Park, May 2001. Webster, Elizabeth, ‘The Trade Labour Markets’, paper presented at the ‘Planning Network Meeting’, Box Hill, Box Hill College of TAFE, 2001. Wooden, Mark, ‘The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and Quality of Life Measures’, paper presented at the ‘Third Australian Conference on Quality of Life’ Geelong, Deakin University, 16 November 2001. Wooden, Mark, ‘Are Jobs Becoming More Precarious?’, presentation at a seminar, Melbourne, Committee for the Economic Development of Australia, March 2001. Wooden, Mark (and Joanne Loundes), ‘How Unreasonable are Long Working Hours?’, paper presented at the ‘2001 Australian Labour Market Research Workshop’, Canberra, University of Canberra, 6–7 December 2001. Wooden, Mark and Watson, Nicole, ‘The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey: An Introduction for Economists’ paper presented to the ‘30th Annual Conference of Economists’, Nedlands, University of Western Australia, 23–26 September 2001.

Media Coverage 591 references to the Melbourne Institute were identified in the print media and on radio or television in 2001. Melbourne Institute staff were reported or products were cited in The Australian, The Australian Financial Review, The Age, The Sunday Age, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Daily Telegraph, The West Australian and various radio and television stations. Notable inclusions in the Institute’s media coverage in 2001: ‘Supplementing low wages with tax credits’, The Australian, 9 July 2001 ‘Higher education suffering a shortfall’, The Australian, 13 June 2001 ‘GST short term benefits hard to find’, The Australian Financial Review, 3 July 2001 ‘Microeconomic reform will boost R&D investment’, The Age, 2 February 2001 ‘Working hours and overtime negotiation is best left to workers and managers, Australian Industrial Commission told’, The Age, 27 November 2001

FINANCE AND PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Table 4: Income and Expenditure of the Melbourne Institute 1997–2001 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Income Non-University Funds made up of $1,366,062 Subscription Services $277,838 Research Consultancies $736,501 Grants $351,723 Faculty of Economics Base Grant $175,000 Other University Funds $214,500 Total Income $1,755,562

$1,742,783 $326,978 $728,057 $687,748

$2,032,641 $376,613 $1,068,191 $587,837

$2,299,358 $312,420 $1,282,342 $704,596

$4,901,284 $296,976 $4,038,629 $465,679

$150,000 $218,390 $2,111,173

$150,000 $125,125 $2,307,766

$150,000 $188,426 $2,637,784

$150,000 $535,679 $5,486,963

Expenditure Salaries Other Expenditure Total Expenditure

$1,179,267 $571,472 $1,750,739

$1,423,132 $676,060 $2,099,192

$1,482,567 $824,817 $2,307,384

$1,721,936 $885,090 $2,607,026

$2,042,948 $3,420,924 $5,463,872

$4,823

$11,981

$383

$30,758

$23,092

Surplus

Note: The budget is on an accrual basis. Research income is allocated in the year in which the work is done. Table 5: Performance Indicators a Research Performance Research Income National Competitive Research Grants Other Public Research Grants Industry and Other Research Funds Total External Research Income Publications

Refereed Journal Articles Total Publications

Higher Degree Students

Research Higher Degree Students (Full-Time Equivalent) Research Higher Degree Completions

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

$234,128 13% $199,316 157% $503,475 65% $936,921 59% 12 9% 71 42% 4.5 80% –

$346,577 48% $341,171 71% $550,857 9% $1,238,605 32% 34 183% 115 62% 5 11% 1

$380,952 10% $361,938 6% $630,050 14% $1,372,940 11% 41 21% 156 36% 3 –40% 1

$506,508 33% $625,200 73% $855,230 36% $1,986,938 45% 34 –17% 115 –26% 4 33% 0

$465,679 –8% $3,327,032 432% $815,597 –5% $4,608,308 132% 37 9% 132 15% 4.5 11% 0.5

175 30%

258 47%

505 96%

550 9%

561 2%

$448,338 18% 193 66%

$504,178 12% 213 10%

$528,472 5% 303 42%

$500,620 –5% 188 –38%

$517,976 3% 591 314%

$1,755,562 15%

$2,111,173 20%

$2,307,766 9%

$2,637,784 14%

$5,586,963 112%

11.70 15%

14.07 20%

15.39 9%

17.59 14%

37.25 112%

Business, Government and Public Policy Debates Subscriptions to Melbourne Institute Products (Excluding Australian Economic Review) Value of Subscriptions and Sponsorships References to the Melbourne Institute in the Media Financial Performance Total Income

Multiplier Effect for the University (Ratio of total income to the Faculty’s base-line funding)

Note:(a) Figures in italics represent the percentage increase/decrease each year. These figures are provisional. In particular the measures of research output need to be confirmed.