2005 Annual Report - Melbourne Institute by The Faculty of Business and Economics, The University of Melbourne

melbourne institute

of applied economic and social research

annual report 2005 and outlook 2006

www.melbourneinstitute.com © 2006 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research. COPYRIGHT: All rights reserved. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing of the Publisher. ISSN 1441-1423 (Print) ISSN 1447-8080 (Online) Various photos by Argus Photography, Les O’Rourke Photography, The University of Melbourne and others. Designed and edited by Laura A’Bell. Subedited by Nellie Lentini. Printed and bound by Impact Printing.

Contents

Director’s Report

Highlights 2005

Outlook for 2006

Labour Economics and Social Policy

Applied Macroeconomics

Applied Microeconomics

The HILDA Survey

Contributions to Policy Analysis and Knowledge Transfer

Melbourne Institute Forums

Sustaining Prosperity Conference

Staff Publications, 2005

Seminars and Presentations, 2005

Our Staff, 2005

Advisory Board, 2005

Publications by Subscription

Finance and Performance Indicators

Page 1 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Director’s Report

Professor John Freebairn, Director

2005 was an exciting and successful year for the Melbourne Institute, and 2006 promises to build further on the dedication of all staff to providing quality research information as a basis for a more informed policy debate on the big economic and social issues facing Australia in the near future and over the next few decades. In addition to our traditional areas of expertise in labour economics, industrial economics, applied macroeconomics and the collection of economic indicators and the HILDA Survey data, considerable progress has been achieved in building expertise in health economics and in the comparative ranking of universities. In the annual report you will read more about the many research projects undertaken in 2005 and in progress in 2006 under the four areas of loose organisation of the Melbourne Institute: Labour Economics and Social Policy, Applied Macroeconomics, Applied Microeconomics, and the HILDA Survey. This report provides details of the several dimensions by which output of the staff of the Melbourne Institute might be measured. In terms of traditional measures of academic research, in 2005, members of the Melbourne Institute published three books, nine chapters in books, 50 refereed journal articles and 20 working papers. In most cases required reports on commissioned research were delivered on time to the satisfaction of our funders across government departments and agencies, not-for-profit organisations and businesses. The various indicators of economic activity in Australia continued to be published on time and with good media coverage, and the unit record data for the third and fourth waves of the HILDA Survey have been released. Four issues each year have been published of the Australian Economic Review and the Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends. The third Economic and Social Outlook Conference, Sustaining Prosperity, held in March–April 2005, was attended by 400 people, and a fourth is in planning for early November 2006. A very successful conference on research using the HILDA data was organised by the Melbourne Institute in September 2005. The Melbourne Institute Economics Forums, held four times each year over a lunch or breakfast in Melbourne and in Canberra on a topical policy issue, continue to be popular with up to 200 guests attending sessions. Staff members gave around 100 presentations at conferences in Australia and internationally. In 2005, two of our PhD students successfully completed their programs. For the first time, income and expenditure for the Melbourne Institute in 2005 exceeded the $10 million level. Transition of the Social Policy Research Services contract from the Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs to the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations occurred with few teething problems. The research programs with IPRIA were renegotiated for another five years. We were delighted with our success in gaining one new ARC Discovery grant and two new ARC Linkage grants.

Page 2 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Director’s Report

(cont’d)

2005 proved to be a year of review and strategic planning for the Melbourne Institute. A University Departmental Review commended the Melbourne Institute for its performance in recent years. Several benchmarking exercises placed the Melbourne Institute as a leader in terms of income and publications, but we are behind some in the number of higher degree research students. A new Strategic Plan for the period 2005–2009 was developed, discussed and then accepted, and it provides an important foundation for the preparation of annual Operating Plans and the monitoring of performance. During 2005 a number of new people joined the Melbourne Institute. Most notable was Professor Kostas Mavromaras, who now heads up the Labour Economics and Social Policy research program. Other academic staff members who commenced in 2005 were Dr Umut Oguzoglu, Dr Julia Witt, Dr Melanie Davern, Ms Alison Goode and Mr Paul Agius. In addition, Professor Tony Scott, who joined the Melbourne Institute in 2004, commenced full-time employment. New members of the professional staff include Ms Laura A’Bell and Ms Michelle Best. I would like to record my special thanks to all members of the Melbourne Institute Advisory Board, and especially the Chair, Mr Tony Cole, for their time and excellent advice. The Board meetings have been especially valuable in helping the Melbourne Institute think through opportunities and to evaluate options for future research and knowledge transfer to the broader community. The successes of the Melbourne Institute are a tribute to the dedication of all academic and professional staff. I am especially grateful for their hard work and good cheer, and for their willingness and skills in working together for each other on a never ending range of changing issues and tasks. Mostly this has been a rewarding and an enjoyable experience.

John Freebairn Director

Page 3 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Highlights 2005

Professor John Freebairn was appointed as Director of the Melbourne Institute, replacing Professor Peter Dawkins.

The Melbourne Institute and its staff were successful in winning one ARC Discovery and two ARC Linkage grants, worth $1m in total.

The third Melbourne Institute Economic and Social Outlook Conference entitled ‘Sustaining Prosperity’, jointly organised with The Australian, was held in March–April and was attended by around 400 people.

The count of publications by staff continues to grow. In 2005, three books, nine chapters in books and 50 refereed journal articles were published by staff—a total of 62 publications. This compares with 33 in 2004.

The second HILDA Survey Research Conference was held in September and was attended by almost 250 people.

The book Sustaining Prosperity, based on the 2005 Sustaining Prosperity Conference, was released.

For the ﬁrst time in the Melbourne Institute’s history, its total annual revenue exceeded $10m ($10.2m in 2005, up by 6% on the $9.6m recorded in 2004).

The HILDA Survey continued to generate enormous interest, with the number of registered users of the publicly released data exceeding 500 by the end of 2005.

The Melbourne Institute dramatically increased its proﬁle in 2005, with media mentions more than doubling in size to over 2,500 for the year.

The 2005 Faculty Audit commented positively about the Melbourne Institute, particularly on the quality and impact of research, links with government and success at raising revenue.

The Melbourne Institute unveiled and began to implement a new ﬁve-year Strategic Plan.

Professor Kostas Mavromaras commenced employment as the Head of the Labour Economics and Social Policy research program.

Page 4 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Outlook for 2006

Overview After a number of years of change, reflected for example in the significant growth in the size of the Melbourne Institute, marked changes in the composition of the Institute’s leadership team, and the adoption of a new strategic plan, 2006 is expected to be a year of consolidation. Emphasis will be placed on the successful delivery of research grants and contracts, improving the rate of acceptance in high quality academic publications, promoting the Institute as a place for postgraduate research training, and continuing to enhance the long-term viability of the health economics research program under the leadership of Professor Tony Scott. We will also continue to work towards building on our recent successes in winning national competitive research grants. Table 1 lists major research grant applications over the financial year 2005–06. Following is a brief discussion of some of the more significant developments and activities that are expected during 2006.

The Melbourne Institute Economic and Social Outlook Conference (organised jointly with The Australian newspaper) In November 2006 the Melbourne Institute and The Australian newspaper will host their fourth Economic and Social Outlook Conference. As in previous years we have invited a range of high proﬁle speakers drawn from politics, government, community organisations and academia.

Health Economics Research The Health Economics research program made signiﬁcant progress during 2005 winning its ﬁrst major research grant. During 2006 the program will build on this achievement through securing further research funding from government, the Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council and the UK Medical Research Council. Proposals have been developed in the areas of the economics of health care systems, the health workforce, and the socioeconomic determinants of health.

Intellectual Property Research Institute of Australia (IPRIA) Following an independent review in 2005, IP Australia and the University committed a further $0.8m a year to IPRIA, providing the launching pad for another wave of new research initiatives. The Melbourne Institute remains a key player in IPRIA, and is planning new studies of the market for patents and ideas, the intellectual property implications of the proposed China–Australia free-trade agreement, the transmission of knowledge spillovers through inventors, the degree of harmonisation of international patent applications, and the nexus between innovation and uncertainty.

Evaluating the Standing of Australian Universities Following the successful study of the international standing of Australian universities in 2005, Professor Ross Williams and his team are extending their work by evaluating the international standing of different disciplines in Australian universities. This report is due for release in 2006. They have also been commissioned to evaluate the research performance of departments within the University of Melbourne.

HILDA Survey 2006 will see the sixth wave of the HILDA Survey conducted, the key feature of this wave being the repetition of the wealth module previously included in Wave 2. It is also hoped that by years end the HILDA Survey will become the ﬁfth member of the Cross-National Equivalence File, a ‘harmonised’ data set with a focus on income measures that currently provides data for four countries—Canada, Germany, the UK and the US—and is maintained at Cornell University.

PhD Program In 2006, the Melbourne Institute embarked on a campaign to attract more research students. The campaign focused heavily on selling the value of working on on-going projects with Institute staff to prospective students. This campaign appears to have had immediate success with four students commencing or expecting to commence their PhD study during the year.

Page 5 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Outlook for 2006

Labour Economics and Social Policy The research capacity of the Labour program increased considerably during 2005 and is set to increase with further recruitment in 2006. This will reﬂect the successful outcomes of the 2005 ARC research grant applications and the strong demand for applied policy contract work. Core aims of the program in 2006 will be (i) the smooth and

(cont’d)

productive operation of the Social Policy Research contract with the Commonwealth Department of Employment and Workplace Relations; (ii) renewed efforts to engage actively in further policy work at the State and Commonwealth levels; and (iii) the commencement of activity on the two new ARC projects that were awarded in 2005. A number of new grant applications led by members of this program will

be submitted in 2006, seeking funds in excess of $2m over the next three years in the areas of (i) education and labour market performance; (ii) the obesity epidemic and national productivity; (iii) labour supply and the family; and (iv) further developments and applications of MITTS. Continuing emphasis on social policy research has been highlighted by a planned joint research fellowship with the Brotherhood of St Laurence.

Table 1: Research Grant Application Activities, 2005–06 Project Title

Chief Investigators

Grant Type

$ Sought

Economic Modelling of the Nurses’ Labour Market in Australia

Anthony Scott, Mike Shields, John Creedy, Guyonne Kalb, Christine Dufﬁeld

ARC Linkage

$560,240* (over 3 years)

Addressing Nurse Shortages in Australia: Understanding the Labour Market Behaviour of Nurses

Anthony Scott, Mike Shields, Christine Dufﬁeld, John Creedy, Jeff Borland, Guyonne Kalb, Elizabeth Webster, Marie Gertz

NH&MRC – Health Services Research Program Grant

$1,373,852 (over 4 years)

Applying Psychological and Economic Theory to Promote GP Uptake of EvidenceBased Management of Chronic Illness

David Dunt, Anthony Scott, Jenny Boldero, Doris Young, Heather Buchan

NH&MRC – Health Services Research Program Grant

$1,770,000 (over 4 years)

Understanding the Dynamics of the Medical Workforce to Improve Population Health and Equity of Access

Anthony Scott, Catherine Joyce, John Humphreys, Guyonne Kalb, Mark Wooden

NH&MRC – Health Services Research Program Grant

$2,684,608 (over 5 years)

Reducing the Burden of Overweight/Obesity in Australian Adults: An Economic and Health Policy Analysis

Kostas Mavromaras, Rob Carter, Ann Kavanagh, Anthony Scott, Guyonne Kalb, Boyd Swinburn, Janet McCalman, Bruce Headey

NH&MRC – Project Grant

$1,400,215 (over 3 years)

The Effects of the Tax and Social Security System on Labour Supply and Social Welfare

Guyonne Kalb, John Creedy

ARC Discovery

$434,000 (over 3 years)

Graduate Earnings, Over-education and Labour Market Performance

Kostas Mavromaras, Jeff Borland, Roger Wilkins

ARC Linkage International (Social Sciences Collaboration)

$211,000 (over 2 years)

Consumption, Financial Wealth and Housing Wealth over the Long Run

Greg Schwann, Guay Lim, Qi Zeng

ARC Discovery

$213,849 (over 3 years)

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Macro Models: Estimation and Extensions

Guay Lim

ARC Discovery

$323,168 (over 3 years)

Blended Payment Systems for Doctors: Evaluation of a Natural Experiment

Anthony Scott, Helena Britt, Paul Jensen

ARC Discovery

$192,185 (over 2 years)

Cochrane Systematic Review of Payment Systems for Primary Care Physicians and Implications for Australia

Anthony Scott, Lucio Naccerella, John Furler, Doris Young

Australian Primary Health Care Research Institute (Stream Five Extension Funding)

$100,265 (for 1 year)

* includes ﬁnancial contributions by partner organisations

Page 6 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Labour Economics and Social Policy

Overview 2005 was a year of high activity and expansion for the Labour Economics and Social Policy (LESP) research program. A major ARC project—The Dynamics of Economic and Social Change—was successfully completed, and two Faculty seeding grants were also completed, both leading to substantial further funding. Two new ARC projects were approved for a total of $690,000 over three years. The first year of the Social Policy Research Services (SPRS) contract under the management of the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR) saw the completion of nine projects, the continuation of six already agreed projects and agreement on eight new projects to commence in 2006. Kostas Mavromaras commenced in September as the new Director of the LESP research program. The team expanded to include an additional Research Fellow and a Research Officer, and a further three offers were made to Research Fellows, to commence in January, June and September 2006. One Early Career Grant application and one senior internal promotion were approved by the Faculty. The LESP research program recorded a financial surplus, which will be invested in capacity building and the pursuit of high quality research. A special program for the conversion of past SPRS output into journal articles was agreed for the 2006 work allocations. Publication activity remained strong, with six book chapters and 27 journal articles published by the staff of the program during 2005. In general, this was a highly successful year of hard work and high rewards.

Social Policy Research Services Contract This was the first year of research partnership with DEWR. A meeting with DEWR staff took place in December to discuss the new projects and general coordination between DEWR and the Melbourne Institute. It was decided that a total of eight new projects will be commissioned to start during 2006. The following projects were started and/or completed in 2005: SPRS projects carried over from 2004 and completed in 2005 • Comparisons of alternative specifications for labour supply models • Working time preferences in couple households • Understanding successful exits from the Disability Support Pension • Financial stress, wealth, poverty and indebtedness • The causes of long-term unemployment • Living arrangements of young children. SPRS projects started and completed in 2005 • 04/05 The dynamics of jobless households: using waves 1–3 to assess causes and consequences of persistent joblessness • 06/05 Synthesis of Melbourne Institute research: 2000–2005 SPRS projects started in 2005 and continuing in 2006 • 01/05 Income support reliance in Australia • 02/05 Previous income support experience of people granted DSP • 03/05 An examination of welfare transitions using the first three waves of the HILDA Survey

• 05/05 Labour force outcomes for the mature age population • 07/05 The dynamics of income support receipt among ‘new’ income support customers • 08/05 Duration analysis of income support spells initiated by unemployment • 09/05 Transitions from casual employment in Australia SPRS projects agreed to start in 2006 • 01/06 Use of informal childcare and decisions on work by income support recipients • 02/06 Stepping stones—do low paid jobs lead to increased earnings and lower welfare dependency over time (‘low pay dynamics’)? • 03/06 Possible cost shifting from workers compensation to income support for people with workrelated disabilities • 04/06 Mature age employment and workplace strategy • 05/06 Location economics of income support recipients • 06/06 Skill shortages and the absence of wage pressures • 07/06 Working credits—a low cost alternative to universal income tax credits? • 08/06 Link between changes in employment and changes in income support.

Page 7 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Labour Economics and Social Policy

Smaller Projects and Consultancies in 2005 Modelling the Demand for Childcare and Household Labour Supply This project was commissioned by the Australian Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, providing an update on earlier research. This project started in December 2005. The Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS) Model: Training and Technical Assistance The Commonwealth Treasury negotiated a contract with the Melbourne Institute for the provision of training in and assistance with the Melbourne Institute’s microsimulation model. Training was delivered over two courses during 2005. A third course on MITTS was delivered to the Department in March 2006 and a small project to calculate labour supply elasticities will also be undertaken. The contract allows for additional work and for user support to be provided if required. Women and Retirement A draft report was delivered to the Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs. University Early Career Researcher Grant This grant was awarded to Lixin Cai to investigate the impacts of health on labour supply and wages in Australia. Poverty Lines Agreement has been reached with Westpac to produce on a continuing basis a quarterly, regional level Poverty Lines report. Federal Government Funding of NonGovernment Schools This was undertaken for the Yeshivah Centre. Analysis of Vocational Education and Training Outcomes This was undertaken for the Chiﬂey Research Centre.

Analysis of Household Expenditure on Bank Fees This was undertaken for the Australian Bankers’ Association. International Reform Monitor Since 1999, the Melbourne Institute has been a partner organisation of the International Reform Monitor project, a network of representative organisations from 15 OECD countries. Initiated and coordinated by the Bertelsman Foundation (Germany), the network monitors and produces publications on developments in labour market policy, industrial relations and social policy in member countries.

ARC Project: The Dynamics of Economic and Social Change This program of research was built around the analysis of the HILDA Survey data with the purpose of examining research questions within the following three broad areas: • income, poverty and well-being; • labour supply and work incentives; and • the changing nature of work. Funding for this program came to an end in 2005, though it is likely to be some time before all outputs have been finalised. Within the income, poverty and well-being sub-program, our research has focused on three issues: (i) How important are economic considerations in influencing measures of psychological wellbeing, or happiness? (ii) How is wealth distributed across Australian households? and (iii) How should relative deprivation be measured and how pervasive is it in Australia? Under the leadership of Bruce Headey we are close to finalising a major report on the measurement of poverty and disadvantage in Australia.

Page 8 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

(cont’d)

With respect to labour supply and work incentives research, work undertaken by Lixin Cai and Guyonne Kalb has investigated health status impacts on labour force participation decisions. In their latest paper they make use of the panel nature of the HILDA data to better identify the causal links between health and labour force participation. Meanwhile, Jeff Borland has been leading a research project examining the experiences of the unemployed, with a particular focus on the degree of mobility out of unemployment and the factors that inﬂuence such transitions. Finally, activity in the third subprogram during 2005 was dominated by an investigation into long working hours (regularly working 50 hours or more per week) and the factors and characteristics associated with this work pattern.

Labour Market Transitions and Dynamics in Australia An ARC Discovery project worth $450,000 for the years 2006 to 2008 was awarded jointly to Mark Wooden, Jeff Borland and Kostas Mavromaras. This project will establish a program of research focused on understanding (i) the factors that inﬂuence and shape labour force participation; (ii) the consequences of different labour outcomes for individual Australians and their families; and (iii) the implications of related public policy. The focus will be on key transitions between welfare and work, unpaid work and paid work, between different types of employment, and between paid work and retirement. At the heart of the research program will be the longitudinal data collected in the HILDA Survey.

Work will commence in 2006 in the areas of (i) job security (Borland and Wooden); (ii) disabilities (Mavromaras and Heitmueller); (iii) welfare transitions (Borland and Mavromaras); and (iv) working time (Drago and Wooden).

The Experimental Evaluation of YP4: Is ‘Joining Up’ Services for Homeless and Jobless People a Net Benefit to Society? Funding of $240,000 for the years 2006 to 2008 was obtained jointly by the Melbourne Institute and the Department of Economics. Involving a collaboration with four not-forprofit organisations, Hanover Welfare, Melbourne Citymission, Brotherhood of St Laurence and Loddon Mallee Housing Services, the project will undertake a cost–benefit analysis of a trial program of coordinated service-provision for young homeless job seekers. The program is being implemented as a randomised trial to facilitate valid estimates for the costs and benefits of the program. Roger Wilkins and Yi-Ping Tseng (along with Jeff Borland from the Department of Economics) are the Melbourne Institute researchers involved in the project.

Faculty Seeding Grant: Behavioural Modelling of the Australian Tax and Transfer System During the second (and ﬁnal) year of this project, some new modelling developments were incorporated in the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS), including an approximate and quicker way of calculating conﬁdence intervals around predicted outcomes.

A number of new research projects were made concrete enough to allow us to pursue external funding. The grant facilitated the submission of two applications to the ARC jointly with the Department of Economics and the Melbourne Institute Health Economics research program. The proposed topics of investigation are the nurses’ labour market in Australia, and extensions to labour supply modelling. A third application, involving the development of a health microsimulation model to assist with the economic evaluation of obesity prevention interventions, was submitted to the National Health and Medical Research Council (NH&MRC). One further application is planned with Health Economics on the dynamics of the medical workforce. This grant facilitated the editing of a book on the dynamic aspects of inequality and poverty and the preparation and submission of ﬁve academic papers, with three already published, one at the revise and resubmit stage, and one having been recently submitted. It is possible that the resulting increased proﬁle has contributed to the commissioning of work by the Treasury and the Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, and to the invitation to speak at the 8th Nordic Seminar on Microsimulation in Oslo, Norway.

Faculty Seeding Grant: Program and Policy Evaluation and Design A collaborative research group was formed at the beginning of 2004, comprising researchers in the Melbourne Institute and the Department of Economics. The group aims to extend the existing program evaluation research expertise of group members and to promote

the development of the University of Melbourne as the leading research centre on microeconomic program and policy evaluation and design in Australia. Activities of the group undertaken in 2005 included research on several projects evaluating government programs, conference and seminar presentations, and conducting a postgraduate course in program evaluation in the Department of Economics. The group was also successful in securing an ARC Linkage grant to undertake evaluation of YP4.

Finances and Staffing in 2005 As projected, the program ended the year 2005 with a considerable financial surplus. Staffing developments reflected a healthy increase in demand for its contract services and for the successful outcomes of two ARC applications. Key changes were: • Dr Guyonne Kalb was promoted to Associate Professor. • Professor Kostas Mavromaras commenced employment as the new Director of the LESP research program in September 2005, taking over from Dr Roger Wilkins who served as the acting head for most of 2005. • Dr Umut Oguzoglu commenced as a Research Fellow. • Ms Suzan Ghantous commenced as a Research Officer. • Three further Research Fellow offers were made, to commence during 2006. At the end of 2005, the LESP research program employed 14 researchers with the equivalent of 12 full-time employees, and had achieved a research turnover of $1.6m.

Page 9 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Applied Macroeconomics

Overview 2005 was a year of consolidation and development for the Applied Macroeconomics team. Highlights during the year were: • The Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends was expanded to include articles of current economic interest. These included ‘A Fall in the US Dollar – Hard or Soft Landing for Australia?’; ‘Have Per Capita Levels of Economic Activity in the States Converged?’; and ‘The Rise of Inﬂation?’. • The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity was updated following a review of the performance of a wide-ranging set of leading indicators of Australian growth. A summary of the background analysis is contained in the article entitled ‘What Economic Indicators Have Led Australian GDP over the Past Decade?’, published in Quarterly Bulletin 3.05. • The TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Inﬂation Gauge was revised to conform to the move by the ABS to the 15th series of the Consumer Price Index. A background issues paper has been published on the Melbourne Institute’s website. • The Applied Macroeconomics team was awarded a Research Grant by the Melbourne Centre for Financial Studies for the project ‘Rating Transitions: How Do They Vary with the Business Cycle?’. • Journal publications have increased and included articles in the Journal of Applied Econometrics, Empirical Economics, Economic Record and the Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

International Business Cycles

Employment and Unemployment

Understanding business cycles continues to be a major area of research for the Applied Macroeconomics team. In a paper entitled ‘How Well Do Markov Switching Models Describe Actual Business Cycles? The Case of Synchronization’ (published in the Journal of Applied Econometrics), Penny Smith in collaboration with Peter Summers (Texas Tech University) evaluated the effectiveness of using a Markov switching model to measure the synchronisation of business cycles for several countries. A Bayesian Gibbs sampling approach was adopted. They find no evidence of a common Markov state, but some evidence of the propagation of country-specific disturbances across countries. This result adds to our understanding of the global transmission of business cycle shocks. An associated project aims to understand a stylised fact of economic growth, i.e., the global and domestic decline in the volatility of the quarterly growth rates of output in several major economies since the mid-1980s. Funded by a University of Melbourne Early Career Researcher Grant, Penny Smith aims to determine the extent to which there is a common international component in the observed decline in macroeconomic volatility as well as to conduct an investigation into its causes. The project aims to provide further evidence on the relative importance of changes in macroeconomic policy and luck—in the sense of fewer common international shocks—in explaining the recently observed moderation of global economic fluctuations.

A number of papers were completed by Robert Dixon, John Freebairn and Guay Lim on the ARC project ‘Worker Flows and Labour Market Policy in Australia’. In the paper ‘An examination of Net Flows in the Australian Labour Market’ (published in the Australian Journal of Labour Economics) they investigated the behaviour of net flows of persons between employment (E), unemployment (U) and not in the labour force (N) and the relationship of these flows to changes in the unemployment rate. They find that net flows are from U to E (even in recessions); net flows are from E to N (even in booms); and net flows are from N to U (even in recessions). They also find that the reason why the participation rate is negatively correlated with the unemployment rate is because net flows between E and N and net flows between E and U are highly and positively correlated. Another paper explored whether changes in standard hours of work, as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s, altered employment behaviour in Australia. An employment equation was estimated which included standard hours as well as the usual output, real wage and trend explanatory variables for the sample period 1969:1–2004:1. The results support the significance of standard hours. Moreover, when asymmetric adjustment was allowed, the employment decisions were found to respond much more quickly to changes in economic conditions in recessions than in other phases of the business cycle. The research is published in the Economic Record.

Page 10 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Macroeconomics and Financial Behaviour The behaviour of ﬁnancial variables such as share prices, house prices, interest rates and exchange rates play a crucial role in the macroeconomy. For example, understanding the nature of deviations of actual share prices from their fundamental values is of vital importance for practitioners in their portfolio evaluations and for policy makers in their assessment of ‘excessive exuberance’. This is the motivation behind the paper ‘Bounded Dividends, Earnings and Fundamental Stock Values’ (published in Empirical Economics) where Guay Lim proposed a method to assess when stock prices are over- or undervalued. Understanding the time-series behaviour of interest rates is also important for forecasting the macroeconomy. Chew Lian Chua in collaboration with Sandy Suardi (University of Queensland) applied advanced econometric techniques to explore the dynamic properties of a number of interest rates in their paper entitled ‘Is There a Unit Root in East-Asian Short-term Interest Rates?’ (Melbourne Institute Working Paper 14/05). They ﬁnd evidence of non-linearities in the form of Markov-switching dynamics and the mean-reverting behaviour of interest rates is dependent on both the level and volatility of interest rates. They also show that the occasional random walk and meanreverting dynamics of short rates can be attributed to macroeconomic fundamentals, exchange rate regimes and monetary policy objectives in these economies. Chew Lian Chua is currently supported by a Faculty Research Grant to extend the research to further our understanding of the size and power of unit root tests in the context of a range of alternative models of short-term interest rates.

Simulating Macroeconomic Scenarios

Other Outputs

Scenario analysis is one of the most useful macroeconomic tools of analysis and it was adopted by Lei Lei Song and John Freebairn in their paper entitled ‘How Big Was the Effect of Budget Consolidation on the Australian Economy in the 1990s?’ (published in the March 2006 issue of the Australian Economic Review). As the economy recovered from the 1991–92 recession, the need to improve the fiscal balance to lift national saving became the dominant influence on fiscal policy. The paper argues that spending cuts by the Federal government announced in 1996 had immediate effects on financial markets, with reduced long-term interest rates of about 50 basis points in 1996–97. Using a modified version of the TRYM model, the paper simulated the net macroeconomic effects of the expenditure cuts, fiscal consolidation and lower long-term interest rates. The authors find that the program of budget consolidation had a sizeable short- and mediumterm impact on the economy, raising GDP by up to three-quarters of a percentage point and reducing unemployment by 0.3 percentage points over the next two to three years. The findings of the paper imply that the dramatic deterioration in the US fiscal outlook since 2001 and the expected future budget shortfalls associated with an ageing population are likely to have adverse effects on the world and Australian economies.

The Applied Macroeconomics team is also responsible for the following publications: • Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends • Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity • Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment • Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment: NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia • TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inﬂation Gauge • Melbourne Institute Wages Report • Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inﬂationary Expectations • ING DIRECT – Melbourne Institute Household Saving and Investment Report • IdeaWorks Retail Probe.

Media Successes The Applied Macroeconomics team enjoyed an enormous amount of media attention during 2005. The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment consistently topped the Melbourne Institute monthly media analyses and the Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inﬂationary Expectations gained a much larger spotlight during 2005.

Page 11 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Applied Microeconomics

Overview Major areas of research in 2005 included the economics of health, innovation and intellectual property, and education. The health area has mainly concentrated on the effects of incentives to take up private health insurance, medical labour markets, and productivity within the public hospital system. The industrial team has continued its work on the efﬁciency of the intellectual property system and enterprise performance rights, and the education group has concentrated on the international standing of Australian universities.

Health Economics Tony Scott arrived from the UK in April to lead the Health Economics research program within the Melbourne Institute. A new Research Fellow in Health Economics, Julia Witt, arrived from Canada in September and she will assist with the development of the research program. An ARC Linkage grant on hospital quality, in collaboration with the Department of Human Services in Victoria, was awarded and started. This will apply economic models of product differentiation to the market for hospital services and is being led by Jongsay Yong. A grant from the Australian Primary Health Care Research Institute was also awarded, in collaboration with the Department of General Practice, on reviewing innovative models of primary health care delivery. Work also commenced with the Royal Melbourne Hospital examining the use of discrete choice experiments to set priorities on orthopaedic waiting lists. The development of the research program has involved a number of grant applications to the NH&MRC and ARC, in addition to building new

links with State and Commonwealth governments. Research will have a focus on incentives, behaviour and organisation of the health care system in the following areas: • Health care workforce, labour markets and incentives for health professionals • Health insurance and health care ﬁnance • Performance, incentives and competition in health care • The economics of primary health care services. These are under-researched areas of work within Australia and internationally, as well as being highly policy relevant. The methods used in these areas include the interrogation of large datasets using econometric techniques, through to the collection of data using specially designed surveys and experiments. Jongsay Yong, Alfons Palangkaraya and Nina Van Dyke undertook a major commissioned study on the impact of care giving on carers. The project involves a telephone survey of some 1,400 carers, and major areas of carers’ lives, including mental health, social activities, physical health, income and employment, ﬁnancial circumstances, etc. Four reports will be completed before mid-2006.

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Industrial Economics Six major research projects have been undertaken within the industrial and innovation area. Paul Jensen, Alfons Palangkaraya and Beth Webster completed two papers on the extent and causes of disharmony among international patent offices when they assess essentially the same patent application. They found extensive disharmony. After a minimum of eight years, only one-third of international applications had received the same assessment by the three major patent offices. Preference for local applicants was one of the reasons for this difference. Jongsay Yong, Alfons Palangkaraya and Andreas Stierwald are undertaking a firm-level study of productivity and exporting using unpublished ASIC and ABS data. A working paper, entitled ‘Is Firm Productivity Related to Firm Size and Age? The Case of Large Australian Firms’, has been completed. Two further papers relating export performance and productivity are in progress. Alfons Palangkaraya and Jongsay Yong have also been working on a project on parallel importing using unpublished industry- and firm-level data from the ABS. Paul Jensen and Robin Stonecash (AGSM) completed their study on efficient contracts for outsourced services and found, using data on water and sewerage network maintenance services contracts, that fixed-price contracts outperformed cost-plus contracts. Their analysis confirms the standard result that efficient contracts trade-off risk for incentives. Anne Wyatt (University of Adelaide), Sir Laurie Hunter (University of Glasgow) and Beth Webster continued their study on the

measurement of intangible investment by recommending that changing accounting standards to explicitly recognise expenditure on intangibles is the only consistent and cost-effective way to incorporate intangibles into management accounting. Bill Griffiths, Paul Jensen and Beth Webster undertook an empirical investigation of the effects of intangible capital on enterprise profits. They found that while both patents and trade marks had a consistent and significant positive effect on current profits, the effects of trade marks showed a strong positive trend. In addition to this research, Derek Bosworth and Beth Webster edited a book on the management of intellectual property. This is due for release in 2006. Nina Van Dyke and Alfons Palangkaraya released the 2005 R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard. Minor work was also prepared by Alfons Palangkaraya, Paul Jensen and Beth Webster on copyright, research exemptions within patent laws and comparative international patenting rates by technology areas.

Education Economics Ross Williams and Nina Van Dyke continued their work on evaluating the international academic standing of Australian universities. A new and improved ranking of Australian universities was published with the Australian National University and the University of Melbourne being the most highly rated. The work has attracted considerable international attention and Ross Williams gave an invited address to the ﬁrst world conference on rating universities which was held in Shanghai in June. The team is now extending its work to include the rating of disciplines in Australian universities. The University of Melbourne has commissioned the Melbourne Institute to provide a relative rating of departments and disciplines within the University. Nina Van Dyke undertook a survey of employers’ views on the quality of University of Melbourne graduates.

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The HILDA Survey

Wave 3 Data Release 2005 began with the release of our third set of unit record data files which now cover three waves of data. A key feature of this release was the inclusion of a new set of imputed income variables that were constructed using a method that takes account of the longitudinal nature of the data. Simultaneous with the data release we launched our new on-line version of the user manual. The hope is that users will be able to find everything they need to know to work confidently with the data from this single source.

Wave 4 Each year sees the culmination of another wave of interviewing. For the latest wave (Wave 4) we were able to successfully re-interview almost 92% of respondents from Wave 3. Further, over 78% of our initial responding sample from Wave 1 was interviewed in Wave 4. The conﬁdentialised unit record data set from this wave was released, on schedule, in January 2006.

Wave 5 Concurrent with the collection of Wave 4 data and their preparation for public release was the development and testing of instruments for Wave 5. The main innovation for this wave was the inclusion of a relatively large number of new questions on issues surrounding children and family formation. These new questions were designed with a view to enabling comparisons with similar data being collected in other countries as part of a wider United Nations research program. Other innovations of note in Wave 5 were as follows: • a series of questions designed to measure the incidence of leave and other absences from work;

• a series of questions identifying the presence of carers and caring responsibilities; • a mini-module about intentions and plans for the next three years; • questions on parents’ education; • a 40-item measure of personality (included in the self-completion questionnaire: SCQ); • a battery of household expenditure questions (in the SCQ); and • additional job characteristics items (again in the SCQ).

Data Users Arguably the most impressive HILDA Survey statistics do not come from the data, but concern the number of people who use the data. To date there are 500 registered users of at least one of the data releases. Moreover, the number of users continues to grow with each release. There were just over 200 users of release 1 and over 260 users of release 2, and at the time of writing the number of users of release 3 appeared to be heading towards 300. Given these numbers, it should not be surprising to learn that the HILDA Survey has, despite its comparatively young age, given rise to an impressive portfolio of publications. The HILDA bibliography (available on our website), for example, lists 61 articles in refereed journals and 20 other publications.

Research Conference The undoubted highlight of the year was the 2005 Research Conference held at the University of Melbourne on 29–30 September. Selection of papers and presenters was highly competitive, with almost 50 paper abstracts received from which 31 were selected. In addition, there were three invited speakers—Professor Peter Lynn, from the University of Essex

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(UK), Professor Jan van Ours, from Tilburg University (Netherlands), and Professor Mark Wooden (Melbourne Institute). Attended by 247 registrants, the conference was opened by the Hon Sussan Ley, who emphasised the importance of high quality data for policy decision-making and acknowledged that HILDA’s value in this regard had already been well established. By all accounts, attendees were impressed with most aspects of the conference, from the quality and diversity of the papers on offer to the ample scope for discussion from the ﬂoor to the efﬁciency of the conference organisation to the quality of the catering.

User Training Three separate training workshops were held during the year targeted at different audiences. The largest was held on the day prior to the Research Conference at the University of Melbourne. Capacity constraints restricted the numbers that could participate to 70, and we are pleased to report that the course was oversubscribed.

New Statistical Report An important innovation in 2005 has been the production of a new report presenting a summary of selected ﬁndings from the ﬁrst three waves. Titled Families, Incomes and Jobs, the aim of this publication is to provide the public with an easy to read reference tool that summarises what the HILDA Survey data are revealing about changes in the lives of ordinary Australians. This report will be available on-line in 2006.

Contributions to Policy Analysis and Knowledge Transfer One of the three core arms of the University of Melbourne’s ‘Growing Esteem’ strategic vision is called knowledge transfer, to complement research and research training, and teaching and learning. As part of its strategic objectives, the Melbourne Institute aims to contribute researchbased knowledge to economic and social policy discussion, and ultimately to better policy outcomes, in Australia. In 2005, and looking into the future, we approach this vision and objectives in a number of overlapping ways. These include: • Applied economic and social research to evaluate current and new policy options. Results of the research ﬁnd their way into the public domain via, for example: o reports on commissioned research to clients, with some later modiﬁed and released into the public domain o refereed academic publications as books, chapters in books and journal articles o presentations at seminars and conferences o working papers

• The organisation of special conferences using a mixture of Melbourne Institute and other speakers, including: o the Economic and Social Outlook Conference o the HILDA Survey Research Conference o quarterly Melbourne Institute Economics Forums in Melbourne and Canberra o participation in the organisation of the 34th Australian Conference of Economists • Provision of key economic and social data series. Examples include: o the HILDA Survey o Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity and Survey of Consumer Sentiment o TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inﬂation Gauge o ING DIRECT – Melbourne Institute Household Saving Report o Poverty Lines o Australian Patent Applications Scoreboard

• Publication of quarterly journals: o Australian Economic Review o Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends • Contributions to the media: o direct involvement in articles for newspapers and interviews for radio and television o providing background information to journalists • Membership of advisory boards and committees.

Parliamentary Mentions The Melbourne Institute identiﬁed 34 mentions in 2005 in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This represented an increase of 22 mentions, from 12 in 2004. In addition, many ministers commented publicly on Melbourne Institute projects, most of which can be found on our website in our media logs.

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Melbourne Institute Forums Economics Forum in Melbourne The Melbourne Institute Economics Forum in Melbourne entered its ninth year in 2005 and generated considerable interest. The quarterly forums were well attended. A breakfast was held on 6 July at the Hotel Soﬁtel and luncheons were held on 8 September at the Grand Hyatt and 1 December at the Park Hyatt in Melbourne. At each forum, the Melbourne Institute’s forecasts were presented and discussed by Associate Professor Mark Crosby (Melbourne Business School and Research Associate of the Applied Macroeconomics research program). A particular policy issue was also covered and discussed at each forum. The forums were chaired by Mr Tony Cole AO (Mercer Investment Consulting) and Mr Bill Scales AO (Port of Melbourne Corporation).

Topics and Speakers in 2005 Where Will Our Workers Come From? (6 July) Professor Guay Lim (Melbourne Institute) Professor Peter Dawkins (Melbourne Institute) Innovation the Key to Productivity Growth (8 September) Dr Amanda Caples (Department of Innovation, Industry and Regional Growth) Associate Professor Beth Webster (Melbourne Institute) Poverty and Opportunity: Measurement and Policy Issues (1 December) Associate Professor Bruce Headey (Melbourne Institute) Professor Peter Saunders (The Centre for Independent Studies) Mr Tony Nicholson (Brotherhood of St Laurence)

Professor Guay Lim, Melbourne Institute

Associate Professor Bruce Headey, Melbourne Institute

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Public Economics Forum in Canberra In 2005, the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra continued into its seventh year and maintained strong interest levels. The quarterly forums were well attended. Luncheons were held on 26 April, 29 June and 29 November at the Hyatt Hotel and 6 September at Old Parliament House in Canberra. At each luncheon the Melbourne Instituteâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s forecasts were presented by Associate Professor Mark Crosby (Melbourne Business School and Research Associate of the Applied Macroeconomics research program), and special topics were canvassed. Each forum was chaired by Dr Ken Henry (Department of the Treasury).

Topics and Speakers in 2005 Pre-Budget Assessment of the Economy and the Reform Agenda (26 April) Professor John Freebairn (Melbourne Institute) Mr Chris Richardson (Access Economics) Professor Mark Wooden (Melbourne Institute) Where Will Our Workers Come From? (29 June) Professor Guay Lim (Melbourne Institute) Dr Ralph Lattimore (Productivity Commission) Innovation the Key to Productivity Growth (6 September) Dr Ian Heath (IP Australia) Associate Professor Beth Webster (Melbourne Institute) Poverty and Opportunity: Measurement and Policy Issues (29 November) Associate Professor Bruce Headey (Melbourne Institute) Professor Peter Saunders (The Centre for Independent Studies) Professor Julian Disney (The University of New South Wales)

Dr Ken Henry, Secretary to the Treasury

Professor John Freebairn, Melbourne Institute

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Discussants at the Sustaining Prosperity Conference, 2005

Sustaining Prosperity Conference On 31 March and 1 April 2005, the Melbourne Institute and The Australian held their third joint Economic and Social Outlook Conference, entitled ‘Sustaining Prosperity’. The economic reforms of the past two decades have yielded an unprecedented level of national prosperity. At the same time, the Howard Government has been given a rare degree of political authority to further lift the economy’s productivity performance. A major theme of the 2005 conference was how Australia should proceed to extend the life of the economy’s expansion, confront the challenges of demographic ageing and further spread prosperity by tackling areas of entrenched disadvantage. The conference in March–April 2005 brought together a varied range of leading thinkers from academia, politics, public service, business, unions and community groups to debate the new national

reform agenda needed to sustain the economic prosperity enjoyed since the early 1990s. Policies examined included economic reform, industrial relations, welfare reform, tax reform, competition policy and the well-being of Australians. The sessions covered by the conference were: • The Well-being of Australians • The Medium and Long Term Economic Outlook • Education Policy: Universities, Schools and Technical Colleges • Industrial Relations, Welfare Reform and Workforce Participation • Federal–State Relations • Schools • Health • Tax • Universities • Indigenous Health

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• Welfare Reform and Workforce Participation • The Way Ahead. The speech at the Gala Dinner was given by the Treasurer, The Hon Mr Peter Costello MP, who talked about ‘Sustaining Prosperity: New Reform Opportunities for Australia’. At the lunch on the second day of the conference, the Leader of the Opposition, The Hon Kim Beazley MP, spoke about economic reform. The sessions were well attended over the two days of the conference, with over 350 delegates in attendance. The conference was covered extensively in The Australian and other media. A book based on the conference, entitled Sustaining Prosperity and edited by Professor Peter Dawkins and Mr Michael Stuchbury (from The Australian), was released in 2005.

Kim Beazley MP

Professor Elizabeth Harman, Vice Chancellor, Victoria University

Malcolm Turnbull MP

Speakers and Chairs

Professor Ann Harding (The University of Canberra) Professor Elizabeth Harman (Victoria University) Mr Peter Hendy (Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry) Dr Ken Henry (The Treasury) Ms Jackie Huggins AM (University of Queensland) Ms Belinda Jakiel (VicHealth) Mr Larry Kamener (The Boston Consulting Group) Mr Paul Kelly (The Australian) Dr David Kemp Mr Ian Little (Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance) Mr Andrew McCallum (Australian Council of Social Service) Ms Jenny Macklin MP Dr Richard Madden (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare) Professor Simon Marginson (Monash University) Professor Geoff Masters (Australian Council for Educational Research) The Hon Dr Brendan Nelson MP Mr Tony Nicholson (Brotherhood of St Laurence) Professor Kerin O’Dea AO (School of Health Research)

Ms Mary Ann O’Loughlin (The Allen Consulting Group) Ms Helen Owens (Productivity Commission) Mr Rod Pearse (Boral Limited) Mr Chris Richardson (Access Economics) Mr Bill Scales AO (Telstra) Professor Tony Scott (The University of Melbourne) Dr Brendan Shaw (Medicines Australia) Mr Rod Sims (Port Jackson Partners) Mr Mike Steketee (The Australian) Mr Michael Stutchbury (The Australian) The Hon Wayne Swan MP Mr Dennis Trewin (Australian Bureau of Statistics) Mr Malcolm Turnbull MP Professor Ross Williams (The University of Melbourne) Mr Alan Wood (The Australian) Professor Mark Wooden (The University of Melbourne)

Mr Gary Banks (Productivity Commission) The Hon Kim Beazley MP Professor Jeff Borland (The University of Melbourne) The Hon John Brumby MP Professor Brian Caldwell (Educational Transformations) Mr Michael Chaney AO (Wesfarmers) Professor Bruce Chapman (Australian National University) Mr Tony Cole (Mercer Investment Consulting) Mr Greg Combet (Australian Council of Trade Unions) The Hon Peter Costello MP Mr David Crawford (National Competition Council) Professor Glyn Davis AC (The University of Melbourne) Professor Peter Dawkins (The University of Melbourne) Mr Peter Dutton MP Dr Craig Emerson MP Professor John Freebairn (The University of Melbourne) Professor Ross Garnaut AO (Australian National University) Professor Robert Gregory AO (Australian National University)

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Staff Publications, 2005

Books and Monographs Bosworth, D.L. Determinants of Enterprise Performance. Manchester University Press: Manchester. Dawkins, P. and Stutchbury, M. Sustaining Prosperity. Melbourne University Press: Melbourne. Scott, A. and Wordsworth, S. Health Economics Masterclasses in Primary Care Research No. 9. Royal College of General Practitioners: London.

Chapters in Research Books Borland, J., Tseng, Y. and Wilkins, R. ‘Experimental and quasi-experimental methods of microeconomic program and policy evaluation’ in Quantitative Tools for Microeconomic Policy Analysis. Productivity Commission: Melbourne, pp 83–118. Buddelmeyer, H., Mourre, G. and Ward, M. ‘Recent developments in part-time work in EU countries: trends and policy’ in Labour Supply and Incentives to Work in Europe. Edited by R. Gomez-Salvador, A. Lamo, B. Petrongolo, M. Ward and E. Wasmer. Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, UK, pp 273–308. Creedy, J. and Kalb, G.R. ‘Behavioural microsimulation modelling with the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS): uses and extensions’ in Quantitative Tools for Microeconomic Policy Analysis. Productivity Commission: Melbourne, pp 247–292. Dawkins, P.J. and Williams, R.A. ‘Public funding of teaching and research in universities: a view from the south’ in Taking Public University Seriously. Edited by F. Lacobucci and C. Tuohy. Toronto University Press: Toronto, pp 121–137.

Freebairn, J.W. ‘Income tax reform’ in Sustaining Prosperity. Edited by P. Dawkins and M. Stutchbury. Melbourne University Press: Melbourne, pp 127–138. Freebairn, J.W. ‘Principles and issues for effective Australian water markets’ in The Evolution of Markets for Water: Theory and Practice in Australia. Edited by J. Bennett. Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, UK, pp 8–23. Headey, B.W. and Wooden, M.P. ‘Economic wellbeing and subjective wellbeing: the effects of income and wealth’ in Rethinking Well-Being: Essays on Health, Disability and Disadvantage. Edited by L. Manderson. API Network: Perth, pp 91–108. Headey, B.W. and Wooden, M.P. ‘Income, wealth and joblessness: insights from the HILDA Survey’ in Sustaining Prosperity. Edited by P. Dawkins and M. Stutchbury. Melbourne University Press: Melbourne, pp 60–93. Mavromaras, K.G. and Theodossiou, I. ‘Differences in the structure of gender differentials between Scotland, England and the UK: evidence from the BHPS’ in Changing Scotland. Edited by J.F. Ermisch and R.E. Wright. Policy Press: Bristol, UK, pp 139–152.

Refereed Journal Articles Bifﬂ, G. and Isaac, J.E. ‘Globalization and core labour standards: compliance problems with ILO conventions 87 & 98. Comparing Australia and other English-speaking countries with EU Member States.’ International Journal of Comparative Labour Law and Industrial Relations, 21(3):405–444.

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Bosworth, D.L., Massini, S. and Nakayama, M. ‘Quality change and productivity improvement in the Japanese economy.’ Japan and the World Economy, 17(1):1–23. Cai, L. and Gregory, B. ‘Unemployment duration and inflows onto the Disability Support Pension program: evidence from FaCS LDS data.’ Australian Economic Review, 38(3):233–252. Chua, M.C.L., Kew, H.Y. and Yong, J. ‘Airline code-share alliances and costs: imposing concavity on translog cost function estimation.’ Review of Industrial Organization, 26(4):462–487. Creedy, J. and Kalb, G.R. ‘Discrete hours labour supply modelling: specification, estimation and simulation.’ Journal of Economic Surveys, 19(5):697–734. Creedy, J. and Kalb, G.R. ‘Behavioural microsimulation modelling for tax policy analysis in Australia: experience and prospects.’ Australian Journal of Labour Economics, 8(1):73–110. Creedy, J. and Kalb, G.R. ‘Measuring welfare changes in labour supply models.’ Manchester School, 73(6):664– 685. Dawkins, P.J., Scutella, R. and Gregg, P. ‘Employment polarisation in Australia.’ Economic Record, 81(255):336–350. Dixon, R.J., Freebairn, J.W. and Lim, G. ‘An employment equation for Australia.’ Economic Record, 81(254):204–214. Dixon, R.J., Freebairn, J.W. and Lim, G. ‘An examination of net flows in the Australian labour market.’ Australian Journal of Labour Economics, 8(1):25–42. Doiron, D.J. and Kalb, G.R. ‘Demands for childcare and household labour supply in Australia.’ Economic Record, 81(254):215–236.

Drago, R., Black, D.J. and Wooden, M.P. ‘Female breadwinner families: their existence, persistence and sources.’ Journal of Sociology, 41(4):345– 364. Drago, R.W., Tseng, Y. and Wooden, M.P. ‘Usual and preferred working hours in couple households.’ Journal of Family Studies, 11(1):46–61. Elliott, R.F., Bell, D., Scott, A., Ma, A. and Roberts, E. ‘Devolved government and public sector pay reform: considerations of equity and efficiency.’ Regional Studies, 39(4):519– 540. Freebairn, J., Goddard, E. and Griffith, G. ‘When can a generic advertising program increase farmer returns?’ Australasian Agribusiness Review, 13(20):1–25. French, F., Andrew, J., Awramenko, M., Coutts, H., Leighton-Beck, L., Mollison, J., Needham, G., Scott, A. and Walker, K. ‘General practitioner non-principals benefit from flexible working.’ Journal of Health Organisation and Management, 19(1):5–15. Hamilton, K., Wyke, S., Sullivan, F., Scott, A., Taylor, R. and Ikenwilo, D. ‘A managed clinical network for cardiac services: set-up, operation and impact on patient care.’ International Journal of Integrated Care, 5:1–15. Headey, B.W., Marks, G. and Wooden, M.P. ‘The dynamics of income poverty in Australia: evidence from the first three waves of the HILDA Survey.’ Australian Journal of Social Issues, 40(4):541–552. Headey, B.W., Marks, G. and Wooden, M.P. ‘The structure and distribution of wealth in Australia.’ Australian Economic Review, 38(1):159–175. Headey, B.W., Wooden, M.P. and Muffels, R. ‘Money and happiness: the combined effects of wealth, income and consumption.’ Schmollers Jahrbuch, 125(1):131–144.

Hunter, L.C., Webster, E.M. and Wyatt, A. ‘Measuring intangible capital: a review of current practice.’ Australian Accounting Review, 15(36):5– 21. Inch, J., Bond, C., Lee, A., Scott, A. and Grant, A. ‘Scottish community pharmacists’ current involvement in and attitudes towards “extended service” provision: a national survey.’ International Journal of Pharmacy Practice, 13(4):289–301. Jensen, P.H. and Stonecash, R. ‘Incentives and the efﬁciency of public sector outsourcing contracts.’ Journal of Economic Surveys, 19(5):767– 787. Kalb, G.R., Kew, H.Y. and Scutella, R. ‘Effects of the Australian new tax system on income tax and beneﬁts: with and without labour supply responses.’ Australian Economic Review, 38(2):137–158. Lim, G. ‘Bounded dividends, earnings and fundamental stock values.’ Empirical Economics, 30(2):411–426. Lim, G. ‘Currency risk in excess equity returns: a multi time-varying beta approach.’ Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 15(3):189–207. Lim, G., Martin, G. and Martin, V. ‘Parametric pricing of higher order moments in S&P500 options.’ Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20(3):377–404. Marks, G. ‘Cross-national differences and accounting for social class inequalities in education.’ International Sociology, 20(4):483–505. Marks, G. ‘Immigrant students and student achievement: cross-national differences and the role of the home environment and schools.’ Ethnic and Racial Studies, 28(5):925–946. Marks, G. ‘Issues in the school-towork transition.’ Journal of Sociology, 41(4):365–385.

Marks, G. ‘The dynamics of ﬁnancial disadvantage in Australia.’ Agenda: A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, 12(4):309–322. Marks, G. and Cresswell, J. ‘State differences in achievement among secondary school students in Australia.’ Australian Journal of Education, 49(2):141–151. Marks, G., Headey, B.W. and Wooden, M.P. ‘Household wealth in Australia: its components, distribution and correlates.’ Journal of Sociology, 41(1):47–68. Mavromaras, K.G., McCausland, D. and Theodossiou, I. ‘Explaining student retention: the case of the University of Aberdeen.’ Widening Participation and Lifelong Learning, 7(3):24–26. Mavromaras, K.G. and Scott, A. ‘Promotion to hospital consultant in NHS Scotland.’ International Journal of Manpower, 26(7/8):660–672. Palangkaraya, A. and Yong, J. ‘Effects of recent carrot-and-stick policy initiatives on private health insurance coverage in Australia.’ Economic Record, 81(254):262–272. Quah, E., Saw, S.L.C., Tan, K.C. and Yong, J. ‘Effects of smoking on productivity: estimating aggregate production technology using crosssectional time series data.’ Journal of Developing Areas, 39(1):41–53. Simeons, S. and Scott, A. ‘Integrated primary care organisations: to what extent is integration occurring and why?’ Health Services Management Research, 18(1):25–40. Simeons, S. and Scott, A. ‘Voluntary or compulsory health care reform? The case of primary care organisations in Scotland.’ Health Policy, 72:351–358.

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Staff Publications, 2005

Skatun, D., Scott, A., Elliott, R. and Antonazzo, E. ‘The supply of qualified nurses: a classical model of labour supply.’ Applied Economics, 37(11):57–66. Smith, P.A. and Summers, P.M. ‘How well do Markov switching models describe actual business cycles? The case of synchronization.’ Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20(2):253–274. Song, L.L. ‘Do underlying measures of inflation outperform headline rates? Evidence from Australian data.’ Applied Economics, 37(3):351–366. Song, L.L. and Freebairn, J.W. ‘Policies to reduce unemployment: simulations with Treasury macroeconomic model.’ Economic Record, 81(255):351–366. Van Dyke, N. ‘Twenty years of university report cards.’ Higher Education in Europe, 30(2):103–125. Weatherall, K.G. and Jensen, P.H. ‘An empirical investigation into patent enforcement in Australian courts.’ Federal Law Review, 33(2):239–286. Webster, E.M., Wooden, M.P. and Marks, G. ‘Teaching and the teacher labour market: the case for reform.’ Australian Economic Review, 38(1):91– 98. Wilkins, R.K. ‘Do longer working hours lead to more workplace injuries? Evidence from Australian industrylevel panel data.’ Australian Bulletin of Labour, 31(2):155–170. Williams, R.A. ‘Federal–State financial relations in Australia: the role of the Commonwealth Grants Commission.’ Australian Economic Review, 38(1):108– 118. Williams, R.A. ‘Fiscal federalism: aims, instruments and outcomes.’ Australian Economic Review, 38(4):351–369. Wooden, M.P. ‘Minimum wage setting and the Australian Fair Pay Commission.’ Journal of Australian Political Economy, (56):81–91.

(cont’d)

Unrefereed Journal Articles

Melbourne Institute Working Papers

Buddelmeyer, H., Freebairn, J.W. and Kalb, G.R. ‘The Melbourne Institute analysis of the 2005 federal budget.’ Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, 2.05:19–21. Chua, M.C.L., Crosby, M., Lim, G., Smith, P.A. and Song, L.L. ‘A fall in the US Dollar – hard or soft landing for Australia? A scenario analysis.’ Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, 1.05:17–20. Chua, M.C.L. and Lim, G. ‘Forecasts for the States and Territories.’ Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, 1.05:12–15. Crosby, M. and Chua, M.C.L. ‘Have per capita levels of economic activity in the States converged.’ Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, 3.05:16–18. Smith, P.A. ‘United States.’ Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, 1.05:8–11. Smith, P.A. ‘What economic indicators have led Australian GDP over the past decade?’ Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, 3.05:19–22. Song, L.L., Chua, M.C.L., Lim, G. and Smith, P.A. ‘Treasury and Melbourne Institute forecasts and implications for the budget bottom line.’ Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, 2.05:16–18. Williams, R.A. ‘Financing public infrastructure: introduction to the policy forum.’ Australian Economic Review, 38(4):418–419.

Jensen, P.H. and Stonecash, R. ‘Contract Efficiency in the Presence of Demand and Cost Uncertainty.’ 1/05. Creedy, J. and Kalb, G. ‘Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling for Tax Policy Analysis in Australia: Experience and Prospects.’ 2/05. Borland, J. ‘Transitions to Retirement: A Review.’ 3/05. Griffiths, W.E., Jensen, P.H. and Webster, E. ‘The Effects on Firm Profits of the Stock of Intellectual Property Rights.’ 4/05. Jensen, P.H., Palangkaraya, A. and Webster, E. ‘Patent Application Outcomes across the Trilateral Patent Offices.’ 5/05. Palangkaraya, A., Jensen, P.H. and Webster, E. ‘Determinants of International Patent Examination Outcomes.’ 6/05. Tseng, Y.P. and Wooden, M. ‘Preferred vs Actual Working Hours in Couple Households.’ 7/05. Borland, J., Tseng, Y.P. and Wilkins, R. ‘Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Methods of Microeconomic Program and Policy Evaluation.’ 8/05. Cai, L. and Kalb, G. ‘Health Status and Labour Force Status of Older Working-Age Australian Men.’ 9/05. Cai, L., Kalb, G., Tseng, Y.P. and Vu, H.H. ‘The Effect of Financial Incentives on Labour Supply: Evidence for Sole Parents from Microsimulation and QuasiExperimental Evaluation.’ 10/05. Freebairn, J. ‘A Comparison of Alternative Tax Bases.’ 11/05.

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Drago, R., Black, D. and Wooden, M. ‘The Persistence of Long Work Hours.’ 12/05. Buddelmeyer, H. and Wilkins, R. ‘The Effects of Smoking Ban Regulations on Individual Smoking Rates.’ 13/05. Chua, C.L. and Suardi, S. ‘Is There a Unit Root in East-Asian Short-Term Interest Rates?’ 14/05. Hunter, L.C., Webster, E. and Wyatt, A. ‘Measuring Intangible Investment.’ 15/05. Hérault, N. ‘A Micro-Macro Model for South Africa: Building and Linking a Microsimulation Model to a CGE Model.’ 16/05. Hérault, N. ‘Trade Liberalisation, Poverty and Inequality in South Africa: A CGE-Microsimulation Analysis.’ 17/05. Freebairn, J. ‘Issues in the Design of Water Markets.’ 18/05. Scott, A. ‘The Productivity of Doctors in Australia: The “Flat of the Curve” and Beyond?’ 19/05. Smith, P.A. and Song, L.L. ‘Response of Consumption to Income, Credit and Interest Rate Changes in Australia.’ 20/05.

Melbourne Institute Report Series Harris, M. and Kalb, G.R. ‘Movement between beneﬁt types.’ Melbourne Institute Report Series No. 5.

Other Selected Papers and Reports Buddelmeyer, H., Mourre, G. and Ward, M. ‘Part-time work in EU countries: labour market mobility, entry and exit.’ European Central Bank Working Paper Series No. 460, European Central Bank: Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Buddelmeyer, H., Mourre, G. and Ward, M. ‘Part-time work in EU countries: labour market mobility, entry and exit.’ IZA Discussion Paper Series No. 1550, Institute for the Study of Labour: Bonn, Germany. Doiron, D. and Kalb, G.R. ‘Effects of child care demands and policies on household labour supply in Australia.’ Policy Research Paper Series No. 25, Department of Family and Community Services, Canberra. Marks, G. ‘Unmet demand? Characteristics and subsequent activities of university applicants not offered a place.’ Research Report No. 46, Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth, Australian Council for Educational Research, Camberwell.

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Seminars and Presentations, 2005

Black, D. ‘Workforce transitions following unemployment: analysis using HILDA.’ Melbourne Institute Workshop Series, 26 July. Black, D. ‘Workforce transitions following unemployment: analysis using HILDA.’ HILDA Survey Research Conference 2005, The University of Melbourne, 29–30 September. Borland, J.I. and Tseng, Y.P. ‘Does ‘Work for the Dole’ work?’ 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September. Buddelmeyer, H. ‘Workforce participation: what does it mean for child care? A summary of findings from the first two waves of HILDA data.’ Australian Child Care beyond 1 July 2005 – What You Need to Know, Caulfield Racecourse, 17 June. Buddelmeyer, H. ‘The effect of smoking ban regulations on individual smoking rates.’ Microeconometrics Seminar, The University of Melbourne, 30 March. Buddelmeyer, H. ‘The effect of smoking ban regulations on individual smoking rates.’ HILDA Survey Research Conference 2005, The University of Melbourne, 29–30 September. Buddelmeyer, H. ‘The economics of alcohol, tobacco and illicit drugs.’ Turning Point Alcohol and Drug Centre, 30 November. Buddelmeyer, H. ‘Challenges and opportunities in MITTS for building a bridge with lifecycle and macro models.’ The Next Generation: Building a Bridge between Microsimulation, Life-cycle, and Macroeconomic Models, Melbourne Institute Seminar, 9 May. Cai, L. ‘Health and labour force status of older working age Australian men.’ 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September.

Cai, L. ‘Health and labour force status of older working age Australian men.’ HILDA Survey Research Conference 2005, The University of Melbourne, 29–30 September. Cai, L., Kalb, G.R., Tseng, Y.P. and Vu, H.H. ‘The effect of ﬁnancial incentives on labour supply: evidence for sole parents from microsimulation and quasi-experimental evaluation.’ 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September. Chua, M. ‘Bayesian model averaging over distinct groups of models.’ 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September. Chua, M. ‘Forecasting patent and trademark applications.’ IP Australia, 8 September. Creedy, J. and Kalb, G.R. ‘Evaluating policy reforms in behaviour tax microsimulation models.’ 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September. Dawkins, P.J., Palangkaraya, A., Webster, E.M. and Yong, J. ‘The income distributive implications of recent private health insurance policies in Australia.’ 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September. Evans, M., Kelley, J., Sikora, J. and Treiman, D.J. ‘To the scholar go the spoils? The inﬂuence of parents’ scholarly culture on offspring’s occupational attainment in 331 societies. Inequality and mobility in family, school and work.’ International Sociological Association, Madrid. Freebairn, J. ‘Alternative tax bases.’ St Hilda’s College, The University of Melbourne, 2 August. Freebairn, J. ‘Budget and implications.’ Monash University, 12 May.

Page 24 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Freebairn, J. ‘Comments on industrial relations reform.’ Productivity Commission Workshop on Federal/ State Relations, 27 October. Freebairn, J. ‘Early days for water markets.’ Industry Economics Conference, La Trobe University, 30 September. Freebairn, J. ‘Early days for water markets.’ Productivity Commission, 4 October. Freebairn, J. ‘Gross labour ﬂows in Australia.’ Microeconometrics Seminar, The University of Melbourne, 27 July. Freebairn, J. ‘Income tax reform.’ Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum, Canberra, 1 April. Freebairn, J. ‘Income tax reform.’ Fabian Society, 12 November. Freebairn, J. ‘Indirect tax: a sleeping reform agenda.’ CEDA, 31 May. Freebairn, J. ‘Industrial relations and social welfare.’ Brotherhood of St Laurence, 11 October. Freebairn, J. ‘Labour market challenges and opportunities.’ Citigroup, 11 April. Freebairn, J. ‘Medium term economic outlook and policy implications.’ Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum, Canberra, 26 April. Freebairn, J. ‘Minimum wages and social equity.’ Victoria University of Technology, 18 October. Freebairn, J. ‘Reforming industrial relations and social equity.’ 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September. Freebairn, J. ‘Wages and employment of indigenous Australians.’ Bennelong Conference, 10 September.

Griffiths, W., Jensen, P.H. and Webster, E. ‘The effects on firm profits of the stock of intellectual property rights’, 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September. Headey, B. ‘A framework for analysing poverty, disadvantage and low capabilities.’ Melbourne Institute Economics Forum, Melbourne, 1 December. Headey, B. ‘A framework for assessing poverty, disadvantage and low capabilities.’ HILDA Survey Research Conference 2005, The University of Melbourne, 29–30 September. Jensen, P. ‘Examining biases in measures of firm innovation.’ Danish Research Unit for Industrial Dynamics (DRUID) Summer Conference, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark, 27–29 June. Jensen, P. ‘Determinants of international patent examination outcomes.’ Centre for Microeconometrics Workshop, The University of Melbourne, 11 May. Jensen, P. ‘Patent application outcomes across the trilateral patent offices.’ International Industrial Organisation Society Conference, Georgia Tech, USA, 8–9 April. Jensen, P. ‘Patent application outcomes across the trilateral patent offices.’ European Patent Office, Germany, 7 July. Jensen, P. ‘Patent application outcomes across the trilateral patent offices.’ 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September. Kalb, G. ‘Behavioural microsimulation modelling using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS).’ Workshop on Behavioural Microsimulation and the MITTS Model, Treasury, Melbourne, 15 February.

Kalb, G. ‘The effect of financial incentives on labour supply: Evidence for sole parents from microsimulation and quasi-experimental evaluation.’ Seminar for the Labor Group, Tilburg University, 14 June. Kalb, G. ‘The effect of financial incentives on labour supply: evidence for sole parents from microsimulation and quasi-experimental evaluation.’ XIX Annual Conference of the European Society for Population Economics at the Cité Universitaire, Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne, 16–18 June. Kalb, G. ‘The effect of financial incentives on labour supply: evidence for sole parents from microsimulation and quasi-experimental evaluation.’ Australian Labour Market Research Workshop, Australian National University, 5–6 December. Kalb, G. ‘Health status and labour force status of older workingage Australian men.’ Economics Workshop, Tilburg University, 22 June. Kalb, G. ‘Labour supply and welfare participation in the Australian population: using observed job search to account for involuntary unemployment.’ Centre for Microeconometrics Seminar, The University of Melbourne, 17 November. Kalb, G. ‘Work incentives and labour supply.’ Social Policy Research Workshop 2005, Department of Family and Community Services, Canberra, 28–29 November. Kelley, J., Evans, M. and Haller, W. ‘The authority transition: economic development and the causes and consequences of supervisory authority in 35 nations. Inequality and mobility in family, school and work.’ International Sociological Association, Madrid.

Lim, G.C. ‘Fiscal and trade balances in a model with sticky prices and distortionary taxes.’ Reserve Bank of New Zealand Workshop on DSGE Modelling, 12 August. Lim, G.C. ‘Population ageing and participation rates.’ Melbourne Institute Economics Forum, Melbourne, 6 July. Lim, G.C. ‘Taylor rules for open economies with endogenous risk premia.’ 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September. Mavromaras, K. ‘Discussant’, HILDA Survey Research Conference 2005, The University of Melbourne, 29–30 September. Mavromaras, K. ‘The estimation of job satisfaction with endogenous income.’ BHPS 2005 Conference, University of Essex, 30 June–2 July. Mavromaras, K. ‘The relationship between obesity and lifestyles.’ Health Economics Study Group, Oxford University, 9–11 January. Mavromaras, K. ‘The relationship between obesity, lifestyles and unemployment.’ Scottish Economic Society 2005 Annual Conference, Scotland, 29–31 March. Mavromaras, K. ‘Obesity and labour markets.’ Sheffield University Staff Seminars, Sheffield University, April. Palangkaraya, A. ‘International patent outcomes.’ Melbourne Law School, 6 September. Palangkaraya, A. ‘The productivity of large Australian firms.’ Melbourne Institute Workshop Series, 6 December. Scott, A. ‘For love or money? Alternative methods of paying physicians.’ Sustaining Prosperity Conference, The University of Melbourne, 1 April.

Page 25 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Seminars and Presentations, 2005

Scott, A. ‘Geographically differentiated pay in the labour market for nurses.’ Department of Economics, University of Queensland, August. Scott, A. ‘Incentives in medical careers.’ Centre for Health Economics, Monash University, July. Scott, A. ‘Incentives in medical careers.’ School of Population Health, The University of Melbourne, August. Scott, A. ‘Physician productivity in Australia: the ﬂat of the curve and beyond.’ 9th International Medical Workforce Collaborative Conference, Melbourne, 17 November. Scutella, R. and Wooden, M.P. ‘Effects of household joblessness on subjective wellbeing.’ 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September. Smith, P.A. and Song, L.L. ‘Response of consumption to income, credit and interest rates in Australia.’ 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September. Smith, P. ‘Bayesian inference for a threshold autoregression with a unit root.’ The University of Algarve, 30 September. Smith, P. ‘Bayesian inference for a threshold autoregression with a unit root with an application to international unemployment rates.’ Melbourne Institute, 15 November. Smith, P. ‘Comments on a Monte Carlo analysis of alternative tests of Contagion.’ 2005 Australasian Macroeconomics Workshop, 31 March. Song, L.L. Discussant on ‘Did sunspot forces cause the Great Depression?’ Australasian Macro Workshop, The University of Melbourne, 30 March.

Webster, E. ‘Appropriating innovation profits and firms’ learning behaviour.’ International Industrial Organisation Conference, Atlanta, USA, 8–9 April. Webster, E. ‘The changing nature of work.’ Australian Business Foundation, AGM address, North Sydney, 22 November. Webster, E. ‘Creative Capital Seminar.’ MJCC Event, Center for Innovation and Technology Commercialisation, 20 June. Webster, E. ‘Determinants of patent examination outcomes across the trilateral patent offices.’ International Industrial Organisation Conference, USA, 8–9 April. Webster, E. ‘Determinants of patent examination outcomes across the trilateral patent offices.’ World International Patent Office (WIPO), Switzerland, 30 June. Webster, E. ‘Determinants of patent examination outcomes across the trilateral patent offices.’ Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), France, 8 July. Webster, E. ‘The effects on firm profits of the stock of intellectual property rights.’ Danish Research Unit for Industrial Dynamics (DRUID) Summer Conference, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark, 27–29 June. Webster, E. ‘Innovation and intellectual property policy for the noughties.’ Melbourne Institute Economics Forum, Melbourne, 8 September. Webster, E. ‘Innovation and intellectual property policy for the noughties.’ Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum, Canberra, 6 September.

Page 26 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

(cont’d)

Webster, E. ‘Outcome metrics for public-sector research organisations, knowledge commercialisation Australia.’ Knowledge Commercialisation Australia, Holiday Inn, Adelaide, 11 November. Webster, E. ‘Trends in the value of intellectual property in Australia.’ Licensing Executives Society Annual Conference, Australia and New Zealand, Sydney, 17–18 March. Wilkins, R. ‘Disability Support Pension recipients: who gets off (and stays off) payments?’ Melbourne Institute Workshop Series, 13 December. Wilkins, R. ‘The effects of smoking ban regulations on individual smoking rates.’ Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics Seminar Series, Monash University, 14 October. Wilkins, R. ‘Findings and policy implications of recent economic research on disability and the Australian labour market.’ Transforming Disability Conference, Centre for Public Policy, The University of Melbourne, 9 November. Wilkins, R. ‘Discussant’, HILDA Survey Research Conference 2005, The University of Melbourne, 29–30 September. Williams, R.A. ‘Fiscal federalism: aims, instruments and outcomes.’ 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September. Witt, J. ‘Chronic disease management in Canada.’ Centre for Rheumatic Diseases, The University of Melbourne, October. Witt, J. ‘The welfare effects of banning genetic information in the life insurance market.’ Canadian Health Economics Study Group, May.

Wooden, M. ‘Assessing WorkChoices.’ AIG National PIR Group Conference, Canberra, 12 December. Wooden, M. ‘The Australian industrial relations reform agenda.’ 34th Australian Conference of Economists, The University of Melbourne, 26–28 September. Wooden, M. ‘Dissecting WorkChoices in less than 15 minutes.’ Edmund Rice Business Ethics Initiative Forum on Industrial Relations, Sydney, 28 November. Wooden, M. ‘The effects of income and wealth on subjective well-being.’ Australian Social Policy Conference 2005, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 20–22 July. Wooden, M. ‘The HILDA Survey: current issues and challenges.’ 2005 BHS Research Conference, University of Essex, Colchester, 30 June–2 July. Wooden, M. ‘The HILDA Survey four years on.’ Deakin University, Burwood, 22 April. Wooden, M. ‘The HILDA Survey: the first five years.’ Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 3 August. Wooden, M. ‘The HILDA Survey: the first five years.’ UTS, Sydney, 26 August. Wooden, M. ‘The HILDA Survey: progress and future developments.’ HILDA Survey Research Conference 2005, The University of Melbourne, 29–30 September. Wooden, M. ‘Income, wealth and joblessness: insights from the HILDA Survey.’ Sustaining Prosperity Conference, The University of Melbourne, 31 March–1 April.

Wooden, M. ‘The persistence of long work hours.’ Melbourne Institute Workshop Series, 23 August. Wooden, M. ‘The persistence of long work hours.’ HILDA Survey Research Conference 2005, The University of Melbourne, 29–30 September. Yong, J. ‘The distributive consequences of recent private health insurance policies in Australia: gainers versus losers.’ SER Conference, Singapore, 4–6 August. Yong, J. ‘Is firm productivity related to firm size and age? The case of large Australian firms.’ Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 2 August. Yong, J. ‘Population ageing and its implications on health care demand.’ Council of Social Service of New South Wales (NCOSS), Sydney, July. Zagorski, K., Kelley, J. and Evans, M. ‘The effects of economic growth, education, and income on subjective well-being: evidence from 33 nations.’ Search for a New World Order – The Role of Public Opinion, 58th Annual Conference of the World Association for Public Opinion Research, Cannes, 15–17 September.

Page 27 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Our Staff, 2005

Research Staff Director Professor John Freebairn MAgEc NE PhD Davis FASSA Professorial Research Fellows Professor Guay Lim BEc MEc PhD ANU (Director, Applied Macroeconomics Research Program) Professor Kostas Mavromaras BA Hons Piraeus DPhil York (Director, Labour Economics and Social Policy Research Program) Professor Anthony Scott BA Hons Newcastle MSc York PhD Aberdeen Professor Mark Wooden BEc Hons Flin MSc Lond (Deputy Director and Director, HILDA Survey) Principal Research Fellows Associate Professor Bruce Headey BA Oxf MA Wisc PhD Strath Associate Professor Guyonne Kalb MEc Erasmus PhD Monash Associate Professor Elizabeth Webster BEc Hons MEc Monash PhD Camb (Director, Applied Microeconomics Research Program) Senior Research Fellows Dr Roger Wilkins BCom Hons MCom Melb MSc Wisc PhD Melb Dr Jongsay Yong BA BSocSc Hons MSocSc NUS MA PhD Brit Col Research Fellows Dr Hielke Buddelmeyer MA Vrije PhD NYU Dr Lixin Cai BEd Henan MA Renmin MEc PhD ANU Dr Michael Chua BEc Hons PhD UNE

Dr Paul Jensen BEc USyd PhD UNSW Dr Umut Oguzoglu MA PhD Guelph Dr Alfons Palangkaraya BSc UMo MA Penn St PhD Ore St Dr Rosanna Scutella BCom Hons PhD Melb Dr Penelope Smith BEc Hons UWA MCom PhD Melb Dr Lei Lei Song BA E.China MSc Wuhan MEc W’gong PhD Melb Dr Yi-Ping Tseng BEc Taiwan PhD ANU Dr Nina Van Dyke BA Stanford MA PhD U Calif Dr Julia Witt HonBA Toronto MA PhD Guelph Survey Research Staff Mr Paul Agius BA GDipSoc LaT (HILDA Database Support Ofﬁcer) Dr Melanie Davern BSc Hons Melb/ Deakin PhD Deakin (HILDA Survey Analyst) Mr Simon Freidin BBSc Hons GradDipCompSc LaT (HILDA Survey Research Database Manager and Analyst) Ms Alison Goode BA Hons Newcastle Upon Tyne MSc Aberdeen (HILDA Survey Analyst) Mrs Glenys Harding BEc ANU GDipEc Melb (Database Manager and Analyst) Ms Anne Leahy BCom GCertClassics Melb (Survey Data Analyst) Ms Nicole Watson BSc UWA GDipMgtSc Canb MMedStat Newcastle (HILDA Survey Manager)

Page 28 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Research Ofﬁcers Mr David Black BCom Hons Melb Ms Suzan Ghantous BCom BEc Hons Monash MCom Melb Ms Ha Vu BEc Newcastle Hons ANU Ms Diana Warren BCom MCom Hons W’gong Research Assistant Ms Kerry Ware

Administrative Staff Business Manager Ms Rachel Derham BSc Melb Publications Manager Ms Nellie Lentini BA Monash Communications and Publicity Manager Ms Laura A’Bell Functions Manager Ms Penelope Hope BA LaT Finance Ofﬁcer Mr Chris Bowden BA/BSc Monash MCom Deakin Computing Systems Ofﬁcer Mr Woei Tian Liew BSc MSc LaT GDipEc Melb Executive Assistant to the Director Ms Heidi McLean BA Hons UTas MCom Melb Administrative Assistant, HILDA Mr Duane Barron Administrative Assistants Ms Michelle Best BEnvSc LaT Ms Rosy Qin BCom DipEd Melb

PhD Students Mr David Black Ms Kinga Elo Mr Yashar Gedik Mr Wang-Sheng Lee Mr Sam Tsiaplias Ms Ha Vu

Adjunct Professors and Associates Adjunct Professors Professor Jeff Borland MA PhD Yale FASSA, Head, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Professor John Creedy BSc (Eco with Stats) Brist BPhil (Eco) Oxf FASSA, Truby Williams Chair of Economics, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Professor Bill Grifﬁths BAgEc Hons UNE PhD Illinois FASSA, Professor of Econometrics, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Professor Danny Samson BEc PhD UNSW, Department of Management, The University of Melbourne

Professorial Fellows Professor Bruce Chapman BEc Hons ANU PhD Yale, Professor of Economics and Director of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, RSSS, The Australian National University Professor Robert Drago BS Tulsa MA PhD Mass/Am, Professor of Labour Studies and Women’s Studies, Pennsylvania State University Professor Alan Duncan BA Hons Manc DPhil York, Professor of Microeconomics, School of Economics, The University of Nottingham Professor Jonathan Kelley BA Camb PhD Berkeley, Director, International Survey Project, The Australian National University Professor Boris Schedvin BEc PhD Syd FASSA Professor Ross Williams BCom Melb MScEc PhD Lond FASSA Principal Fellows Dr Ernst Boehm AUA BEc Hons MEc Adel MCom Melb DPhil Oxf Dr Gary Marks BSc Hons MSc Melb PhD Qld Associate Professor Michael Shields BA Hons Stafford MSc Health UNY PhD Leic, Associate Professor and Reader, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne

Senior Fellows Dr Denise Doiron BA Monc MA PhD UBC, Department of Economics, The University of New South Wales Dr Mariah Evans BA Reed MA / PhD Chicago Dr Mark Rogers BSc Lond MSc Warw PhD ANU, Harris Manchester College, Oxford University

Page 29 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Advisory Board, 2005

Chairperson

Mr Tony Cole AO, Principal â&#x20AC;&#x201C; National Practice Leader, Investment Consulting, Mercer Investment Consulting Members

Professor Margaret Abernethy, Dean, Faculty of Economics and Commerce, The University of Melbourne Ms Carol Austin, Investment Services Director, Contango Asset Management Mr Gary Banks, Chairman, Productivity Commission Dr Peter Boxall, Secretary, Department of Employment and Workplace Relations Professor Max Corden, Professorial Fellow, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Professor Peter Dawkins, Director and Ronald Henderson Professor, Melbourne Institute (until April 2005) Ms Rachel Derham, Business Manager, Melbourne Institute Mr Bill Evans, General Manager, Economics, Westpac Banking Corporation

Professor John Freebairn, Director, Melbourne Institute Dr Jeff Harmer, Secretary, Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs Dr Ken Henry, Secretary to the Treasury, Department of the Treasury Dr Christopher Kent, Head of Economic Research, Reserve Bank of Australia Professor Frank Larkins, Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research), The University of Melbourne Professor Guay Lim, Professorial Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute Mr Ian Little, Secretary, Department of Treasury and Finance Associate Professor Alison McClelland, Associate Professor, Department of Social Work, La Trobe University Professor Kostas Mavromaras, Professorial Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute Mr Tony Nicholson, Executive Director, Brotherhood of St Laurence Mr Phil Ruthven, Executive Chairman, IBISWorld

Mr Bill Scales AO, Chairman, Port of Melbourne Corporation Associate Professor Elizabeth Webster, Principal Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute Professor Mark Wooden, Professorial Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute

Vale We wish to express our deepest sympathies to family and friends of Ian Little, who passed away on Tuesday 6 June 2006 aged 50 years. Ian was a great friend and supporter of the Melbourne Institute, serving on our Advisory Board since 1998, and he will be missed immensely.

From left to right: Professor Kostas Mavromaras, Dr Christopher Kent, Mr Bill Scales, Dr Jeff Harmer, Mr Tony Cole, Mr Gary Banks, Ms Rachel Derham, Ms Carol Austin, Professor Guay Lim, Professor John Freebairn, Associate Professor Elizabeth Webster, Professor Mark Wooden, Professor Max Corden, Mr Bill Evans, Dr Roger Wilkins.

Page 30 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Publications by Subscription

Melbourne Institute Journals Australian Economic Review

In 2005 the format of the Australian Economic Review (volume 38) remained unchanged, and continued to retain its strong emphasis on issues of contemporary policy relevance. A Policy Forum was published in each issue with topics on government policy and school performance, workplace relations reform, the ﬁnancing of public infrastructure, and behavioural economics.

The contributed articles, with three in each issue, covered a diverse mix of topics. Each issue contained both a special article for tertiary students, and a data survey to highlight the availability and attributes of different databases. A summary of the composition of articles published in the Review in recent years is provided in Table 2. Table 3 provides information on the receipt, progress and decisions taken on submissions of contributed

articles in 2005, and in earlier years for comparison. Over the year, 59 new articles were submitted, about 50 per cent higher than in recent years. The backlog of accepted articles awaiting publication is at most one issue. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends

This quarterly publication is sponsored by Mercer Investment Consulting. It provides an authoritative analysis of the international, national and state

Table 2: Articles Published in the Australian Economic Review, 2002 to 2005 Type of Article

2002

Invited Articles

2003

2004

2005

Contributed Articles

Policy Forum

Data Surveys

For the Student

462

463

464

469

Pages

Table 3: Contributed Articles, 2002 to 2005 Contributed Papers Brought forward from previous year (a) Submissions during year

2002

2003

2004

2005

Decisions Made Accepted: Published Accepted: In queue

Rejected/withdrawn

Resubmit

In process

Note:

(a) Sum of acceptances in queue, re-submissions and articles in process.

Page 31 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Publications by Subscription

economic environments, with a particular focus on reading the business cycle. In particular, it includes forecasts generated by the Melbourne Institute Time Series Forecasting Model. In addition, most issues include one or more special topics of current interest.

Melbourne Institute Economic and Social Indicators Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity

Published monthly, the Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity examines movements in leading and coincident indicators of economic activity in Australia, together with comparative data from overseas. Indexes of economic activity are designed to enhance the decisionmaking process of ﬁnancial and business managers as well as policy makers by anticipating and identifying turning points in the economy. Each index blends several variables which reﬂect different aspects of the economy; their combination is intended to give a more representative picture than would any one indicator by itself. Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment

The Consumer Sentiment Index is an average of five component indexes which reflect consumers’ evaluations of their household financial situation over the past year and the coming year, anticipated economic conditions over the coming year and the next five years, and buying conditions for major household items. Assessments about future unemployment are also

recorded. Each quarter, consumers are also surveyed about their views on buying conditions for cars and dwellings, the wisest place to invest savings and economic news recall. This report is produced monthly. Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment: NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia

Each quarter key consumer sentiment data are published in relation to New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. In June 2006, the South Australian Consumer Sentiment Index was included in the report and the report was renamed Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment: NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia. Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inﬂationary Expectations

The consumer inﬂationary expectations measures are designed to represent the average householder’s expected rate of consumer price rises over the coming 12 months. The survey produces a direct measure of inﬂationary expectations as consumers are asked whether, and by how much, they believe prices will go up or down. The report is produced monthly. Melbourne Institute Wages Report

This report records employees’ (self-reported) wage changes over the previous 12-month period. This survey has been designed to capture the growth in wage rates per hour. It adds to our knowledge about wages

Page 32 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

(cont’d)

and provides a useful alternative to Australian Bureau of Statistics measures of earnings per person and a complement to the wage price index. This report is produced quarterly. ING DIRECT – Melbourne Institute Household Saving and Investment Report

This survey-based report contains information about households’ current and future saving behaviour, their reasons for saving, the structure of household assets and debts, and households’ assessments of the best ways to invest savings. This report is produced quarterly. TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Experimental Monthly Inﬂation Gauge

TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute have developed a monthly inflation indicator to give markets and policy makers a monthly update on inflation trends. Based on the methodology used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics to calculate the quarterly consumer price index, this publication estimates monthto-month price movements for a wide-ranging basket of goods and services across the main capital cities. This report is produced monthly. In January 2006, this report was renamed TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge. Poverty Lines: Australia

Poverty Lines: Australia is a quarterly newsletter that updates the Henderson Poverty Line as deﬁned in the 1973 Commonwealth Commission of Inquiry into Poverty. It is standard reference material for those concerned with social welfare policy in Australia. Minimum income levels required

to avoid a situation of poverty are presented for a range of family sizes and circumstances. The updated poverty lines take into account changes in the average income level of all Australians, reﬂecting the idea that poverty is relative. Each issue includes a table indicating changes in the purchasing power of the poverty lines and a table comparing welfare payment levels with poverty lines for various family types.

Other Melbourne Institute Publications Melbourne Institute News

Melbourne Institute News was introduced in late 1999 to keep people abreast of various developments at the Melbourne Institute. Stories cover a range of items from all three major research programs, the HILDA Survey, conferences, forums and seminars. This newsletter is produced quarterly. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series

The Melbourne Institute working papers are indicative of research projects undertaken within the Melbourne Institute. In 2005, 20 working papers were produced. Melbourne Institute Reports

The Melbourne Institute publishes ad hoc reports on important economic and social topics investigated by Melbourne Institute researchers.

Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey Annual Report 2005

The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey is a household-based panel survey, which aims to track all members of an initial sample of households over an indeﬁnite life. Further, the sample is automatically extended over time by ‘following rules’ that add to the sample any new children of members of the selected households as well as new household members resulting from changes in the composition of the original households. Accompanying the release of the fourth wave of data from the HILDA Survey, the Annual Report provides information on the activities undertaken for the HILDA project thus far. Highlights from the Wave 4 data, together with a list of publications and information on how to access the HILDA data, are included in the report. Families, Incomes and Jobs: A Statistical Report of the HILDA Survey

The aim of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey is to provide, on an annual basis, a new type of social statistics for Australia—longitudinal panel statistics describing the ways in which people’s lives are changing. The Statistical Report of the HILDA Survey contains short reports and statistical tables covering the four main areas of HILDA: households and family life, incomes and wealth,

employment and unemployment/ joblessness, and life satisfaction and well-being. Particular emphasis is given to the persistence of problems over the ﬁrst three years of the HILDA survey (for example, the persistence of poverty over three years). R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard 2005: Benchmarking Innovation in Australian Enterprises

This publication is the most comprehensive assessment to date of the innovative activities of large Australian enterprises. It provides an invaluable information source for benchmarking and competitor analysis. The innovative activities covered by the report include the latest available information on the level of R&D and applications for intellectual property (patents, trade marks and designs). The report includes an innovation index, ranking Australia’s most innovative ﬁrms; R&D expenditure and intensity rankings for parent companies; the level and intensity of intellectual property applications for parent companies; and industry listings (all measures combined). This is the eighth report produced in this series. Copies can be purchased from IPRIA, University of Melbourne.

Page 33 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

Publications by Subscription

Australian Patent Applications Scoreboard 2004

The Australian Patent Applications Scoreboard is a comprehensive collection of data about the number of patent applications made in Australia each year. It is a useful reference across a number of disciplines and industries. As it contains a large amount of information about patent applications in an easily accessible form, the Scoreboard is a useful tool for enterprises that facilitate the commercialisation of research projects. For example, it allows users to see at a glance the areas of technology where patent activity is highest in 2003, and activity going back ten years. Copies can be purchased from IPRIA, University of Melbourne. Sustaining Prosperity

Australia is more prosperous than ever, but can this economic success be sustained? Where are the reform opportunities to ensure economic expansion? How should we face the challenges of an ageing population? How will we spread prosperity to the areas of entrenched disadvantage? These questions were the focus of the Sustaining Prosperity Conference, hosted by the Melbourne Institute and The Australian, in March–April 2005 at the University of Melbourne. A unique gathering of government ministers, opposition spokespeople, academic experts and business, social welfare and trade union ﬁgures debated a new national reform agenda to sustain prosperity. This book brings together the contributions of these and other leading Australians to examine the development of policies that will ensure a prosperous future for Australia. To purchase a copy, visit the Melbourne University Press website.

(cont’d)

Media Activities In 2005, identiﬁed media mentions increased by over 110 per cent. At least 2,500 references to the Melbourne Institute and its staff were noted in the print media and on television and radio—1,300 more than in 2004. Melbourne Institute staff and products were cited in The Australian, The Weekend Australian, The Australian Financial Review, The Age, The Sunday Age, Herald Sun, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Canberra Times, The Courier Mail, The West Australian, Northern Territory News and various other newspapers. There were also media mentions in various international newspapers, journals and magazines. Staff at the Melbourne Institute were regularly featured as television and radio guests, participating in public debate through contributions to all media outlets. An on-line expert guide is available at www.researches.unimelb. edu.au/mediacontact. In addition, products from the Melbourne Institute were regularly featured on national television and radio shows during 2005.

Page 34 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

With an increase of over 110 per cent in media mentions in 2005, the Melbourne Institute is certainly building on its proﬁle as a leading economic and social research institution with a diverse knowledge base.

Finance and Performance Indicators Income and Expenditure of the Melbourne Institute, 2001 to 2005 Income

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

$4,901,284

$4,773,959

$7,116,242

$7,706,733

$8,506,488

Subscription services

$189,695

$188,859

$200,069

$127,383

$137,366

Forums/Conferences

$111,558

$345,935

$318,221

$144,063

$228,197

$4,134,352

$4,039,946

$6,457,114

$7,133,888

$7,728,851

Non-University funds made up of:

Contract research Grants

$465,679

$199,219

$140,838

$301,399

$412,074

Faculty of Economics Department allocation

$150,000

$397,630

$1,115,240

$1,218,209

Other University funds Total Income

$535,679

$852,929

$616,448

$794,409

$510,798

$5,586,963

$5,776,888

$8,130,320

$9,616,382

$10,235,495

Expenditure Salaries

$2,042,948

$2,562,695

$2,515,255

$3,079,466

$3,592,593

Other expenditure

$3,520,924

$3,102,524

$4,798,833

$4,980,390

$6,543,516

Total Expenditure

$5,563,872

$5,665,219

$7,314,088

$8,059,856

$10,136,109

$23,092

$111,670

$816,232

$1,556,526

$99,386

Surplus

Performance Indicators, 2001 to 2005 A. Research Performance

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

$465,679 –8%

$170,219 –63%

$122,838 –28%

$301,399 145%

$412,074 37%

$3,327,032 432%

$2,911,180 –12%

$5,927,229 104%

$6,069,664 2%

$6,535,050 8%

$815,597 –5%

$1,653,559 103%

$1,320,251 –20%

$1,335,670 1%

$1,559,364 17%

$4,608,308 132%

$4,734,958 3%

$7,370,318 56%

$7,706,733 5%

$8,506,488 10%

Refereed Journal Articles: weighted DEST points

13.9 46%

22 58%

18.5 –16%

27.5 49%

32.9 33%

Total Publications: weighted DEST points

16.9 –2%

29.8 76%

19 –36%

37.6 98%

54.1 77%

Refereed Journal Articles (count)

37 16%

27 –27%

21 –22%

25 19%

50 80%

4.5 13%

4.5 0%

5 11%

5 0%

0.5

561 2%

540 –4%

268 –50%

246 –8%

277 13%

$517,976 3%

$478,965 –8%

$548,548 15%

$566,288 3%

$615,756 9%

591 na

956 62%

1,235 29%

1,196 –3%

2,479 107%

$5,586,963 112%

$5,776,888 3%

$8,130,320 41%

$9,616,382 18%

$10,235,495 6%

27.93 59%

28.88 3%

40.65 41%

48.08 18%

51.18 6%

1. Research Income National Competitive Research Grants Other Public Research Grants Industry and Other Research Funds Total External Research Income 2. Publications

3. Higher Degree Students Research Higher Degree Students (full-time equivalent) Research Higher Degree Completions

B. Indicators with Respect to Business, Government and Public Policy Debates 1. Subscriptions to Melbourne Institute Products (excluding Australian Economic Review) 2. Value of Subscriptions and Sponsorship 3. References to the Melbourne Institute in the media C. Financial Performance 1. Total Income D. Multiplier Effect for the University (ratio of total income to the Faculty’s base-line funding)

Page 35 – Annual Report 2005 and Outlook 2006

annual report 2005 and outlook 2006

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