2006 Annual Report - Melbourne Institute by The Faculty of Business and Economics, The University of Melbourne

melbourne institute

of applied economic and social research

annual report 2006 and outlook 2007

www.melbourneinstitute.com © 2007 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research. COPYRIGHT: All rights reserved. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing of the Publisher. ISSN 1441-1423 (Print) ISSN 1447-8080 (Online) Various photos by Les O’Rourke Photography, The University of Melbourne and others. Designed and edited by Laura A’Bell. Subedited by Rachel Derham. Printed and bound by Impact Printing.

Contents

Director’s Report

Highlights 2006

Outlook for 2007

The HILDA Survey

Applied Macroeconomics

Applied Microeconomics

Labour Economics and Social Policy

Contributions to Policy Analysis and Knowledge Transfer

Melbourne Institute Forums

Making the Boom Pay Conference

Advisory Board, 2006

Our Staff, 2006

Staff Publications, 2006

Seminars and Presentations, 2006

Publications by Subscription

Finance and Performance Indicators

Page 1 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Director’s Report

Professor John Freebairn, Director

2006 was a successful and exciting year for the Melbourne Institute, and 2007 promises further development towards meeting our objective of providing quality research information as a basis for a more informed policy debate on some of the big economic and social issues facing Australia. In this annual report you will read more about the many research projects undertaken in 2006 and in progress in 2007.

Some measures of activity in 2006, and some notable highlights, are as follows. In terms of the traditional measures of academic research output, members of the Melbourne Institute published one book, two edited books, seven chapters, 37 refereed journal articles and 15 refereed conference papers in 2006. Commissioned research projects were delivered on time and to the satisfaction of our clients, with some appearing as reports and working papers detailed later in this report. The various indicators of economic activity in Australia were published on time and with good media coverage. A new labour market series, the Manpower-Melbourne Institute Employment Report was launched, and the TD Securities-Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge moved from its trial to its adult life stage. Wave 5 of the HILDA survey was completed over the year and released in February 2007. It is pleasing to report continued growth in the number of users of the HILDA data, and that the HILDA survey has been added with similar panel data for four other countries in the Cross-National Equivalent File. Four issues each year have been published of the Australian Economic Review and the Mercer-Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends. In late 2006 the Australian Economic Review was included in the Social Sciences Citation Index. In November the fourth Economic and Social Outlook conference, “Making the Boom Pay”, jointly organised with The Australian, was held at the University of Melbourne. It was attended by over 350 people, with the papers and discussion covering a wide range of policy issues facing Australia over the next decade or two. The Melbourne Institute Economic Forums, held four times in Canberra and three times in Melbourne over lunch on a topical policy issue, were successful with up to 200 guests attending each forum. During 2006, Melbourne Institute staff gave 91 presentations at conferences in Australia and internationally. Staff contributed to the public policy discussions in the print, radio and TV media. A quarterly newsletter and regular updates of our website help spread the results of recent research and highlight forthcoming activities. I am delighted to record two specific instances of recognition of staff excellence in research over 2006. Dr Penny Smith was awarded the Chancellor’s Prize for best PhD thesis in the Social Sciences in the University of Melbourne. Associate Professor Guyonne Kalb (with co-author Denise Doiron of UNSW) was awarded the Best Paper Prize for an article in the Economic Record. 2007 promises to be another successful year with a number of new developments. As at March 2007 we have 39 academic staff and eight professional staff, and a budget of over $11.5 million for the year. The Melbourne Institute has nine PhD students, and staff are co-supervisors for another ten students in other departments of the university. Included in the budget are four new ARC grants and a large NHMRC grant obtained in 2006. Commissioned research, including the HILDA Survey with the Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs and the SPRC contract with the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations, continue to provide most of our funds. New and developing areas of research include the topics of health economics, better understanding the underlying causes of obesity and evaluating policy options, economics of education and labour skills, development of the MITTS model for analysing changes in taxation, social security, childcare and retirement income policy options, and some environmental economics issues. I would like to record my special thanks to all members of the Melbourne Institute Advisory Board, and especially the Chair, Tony Cole, for their time and excellent advice. The Board meetings have been especially valuable in helping the Melbourne Institute think through opportunities and to evaluate options for future research and knowledge transfer to the broader community. The many successes of the Melbourne Institute are a tribute to the dedication of all academic and professional staff. I am especially grateful for their hard work and good cheer, and for their willingness and skills in working together for each other on a never ending range of changing issues and tasks.

Page 2 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Highlights 2006

The fourth Melbourne Institute Economic and Social Outlook conference, titled “Making the Boom Pay”, jointly organised with The Australian newspaper, was held in November and was attended by around 350 people.

At the end of 2006, the Melbourne Institute employed 47 staff, which represents an increase of 42% since 2001.

The Applied Macroeconomics area launched a new product – the Employment Report – in association with Manpower, the international recruitment and human resources solution firm.

The Australian Economic Review is included in the prestigious Social Sciences Citation Index (only the second nonspecialist economics journal from Australia to be included).

Under the leadership of Professor Anthony Scott, the Melbourne Institute won a National Health and Medical Research Council Health Services Program Grant worth a total of $2.1m over five years.

The quantum of research output by Melbourne Institute staff remains very healthy, with a total of 3 books, 7 chapters in books and 39 journal articles published during 2006.

The Melbourne Institute continued to maintain its high public profile, with media mentions numbering approximately 2,500 for the year.

Melbourne Institute staff were Chief Investigators on five new Australian Research Council grants (one Linkage and 4 Discovery) worth a total of $1.4m and representing a success rate of 80%.

In 2006, competitive grant revenue at the Melbourne Institute increased by 75% from 2005.

The fifth wave of the HILDA Survey was completed, with a wave-on-wave response of almost 95 per cent recorded. This is comparable to the rates achieved in other world-leading surveys of this kind.

Page 3 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Outlook for 2007 Overview

Nurses’ Labour Markets

The biggest change for the Melbourne Institute in 2007 will be in its leadership. Professor John Freebairn’s two-year appointment came to an end in April when he moved back to the Department of Economics at the University of Melbourne. We are pleased to announce, however, that Stephen Sedgwick has accepted an offer of a five-year appointment as the Melbourne Institute’s new Director, commencing August 2007. Stephen comes with impeccable economic credentials, especially in the area of public policy. He was a Chief Economic Advisor to the Prime Minister (Bob Hawke) and has served as Chair of the Industry Commission and Seretary of the Commonwealth Departments of Finance and of Education, Training and Youth Affairs. Most recently he has been an Executive Director of the Asian Development Bank. Major focal points of activity during 2007 will be the various research programs that are supported with either Australian Research Council (ARC) or National Health and Medical Research Council funding (NHMRC). There are nine different projects funded through these sources which in total will add just over one million dollars to Melbourne Institute revenues in 2007. This level of funding from national competitive grants is unprecedented in the Institute’s history. Following is a brief discussion of just a few of the many interesting research projects and initiatives that the Institute will be involved in during 2007.

Funded by an ARC Linkage grant with the Victorian Department of Human Services, the Institute will commence a major study of the nurses labour market in Australia. The project is concerned with nurses’ labour supply, including recruitment and retention, and will focus on the relative impact of pay and non-pay aspects of nurses’ jobs. A survey of nurses will be conducted, and an already established behavioural economic model of factors influencing labour supply will be extended.

Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life (MABEL). The Australian Longitudinal Survey of Doctors A new NHMRC project was approved at the end of 2006. This is a joint project between the Health Economics program, led by Professor Tony Scott, and the Department of General Practice and the School of Rural Health at Monash University. The project title is “Understanding the Dynamics of the Medical Workforce to Improve Health and Equity of Access: the Australian Longitudinal Survey of Doctors”. The aim of this research is to examine the factors influencing doctors’ labour supply decisions through the establishment of the Australian Longitudinal Survey of Doctors (ALSD). The research will provide a rigorous analysis of medical workforce decisions that underpin workforce distribution and the working patterns of doctors.

Page 4 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Social Policy Research Services Contract We are now entering the third year of our second contract to provide Social Policy Research Services for the Australian government. Now managed by the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations, the Institute’s research program for 2007 includes research on the following topics: • the incidence of work-related injury and illnesses and the outcomes for workers; • intergenerational correlation of labour market outcome; • wage transitions of apprentices; • the determinants of how long women spend out of the labour force following the birth of a child; • teenage parents and income support, education and paid work; and • skills acquisition, employability and the employment choices of income support recipients.

Outlook for 2007 The ManpowerMelbourne Institute Employment Report In November 2006, the Applied Macroeconomics team produced the first monthly issue of the ManpowerMelbourne Institute Employment Report. The Report provides forecasts of the growth in employment for Australia and the main States. The forecasts are based on a time series model which utilises historical information as well as exclusive forward information contained in surveys conducted by the Melbourne Institute and by Manpower. The Report contains both point and interval forecasts of expected employment. During 2007 the Report will be updated monthly to provide timely on-going information about the outlook for employment.

Innovation and Uncertainty

(contâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;d)

Economics of Education

This project is funded with the support of an ARC Linkage Project grant. It seeks to identify the major sources of uncertainty with respect to innovation, and involves a large survey of Australian businesses that have been patent applicants in the recent past.

The HILDA Survey 2007 will see the 7th wave of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey conducted. The Melbourne Institute will also host the 3rd HILDA Survey Research Conference, in July. Keynote speakers include Professor Frank Stafford, Director of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics at the University of Michigan and Professor Richard Burkhauser, the Sarah Gibson Blanding Professor of Policy Analysis and Professor of Economics at Cornell University.

2007 will see the initiation of a new research agenda on the longterm economics of education by the Labour Economics and Social Policy area. The first initiative as part of this research program will be a comparative study of the economics of graduate earnings, overeducation and labour market performance in Australia and UK. It will involve collaboration with researchers from the University of Swansea in the UK. The Australian end of the study will be funded from the financial reserves of the Institute, but with the hope that over time the program will become financially self-sufficient.

Some of the Melbourne Institute staff

Page 5 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

The HILDA Survey Wave 5 Response

Wave 7

Data Users

The undoubted highlight of 2006 was the response rates achieved for Wave 5. Completed interviews were successfully obtained with 94.4 per cent of respondents from Wave 4, a rate that puts the HILDA Survey on par with other leading household panel surveys conducted elsewhere in the world. Furthermore, response rates among both children turning 15 years of age and other new sample entrants were also up on those recorded in previous waves. The confidentialised unit record data from this wave was released, on schedule, in January 2007.

Development work commenced on the Wave 7 questionnaires, with skirmish testing of new content conducted in November. Proposed innovative features for Wave 7 include: • repeat of the module on retirement and transitions to retirement previously included in Wave 3 (but with additional questions about planning for retirement); • extension of the existing short sequence of questions on workrelated training; and • new questions on literacy and numeracy, smoking history, diet, and methods of pay determination. In combination with the Wave 7 testing, we are also commencing work on redesigning the HILDA Survey instrument for administration via computers, with the expectation that at some later wave we will convert to computer-assisted personal interviewing.

Use of the HILDA Survey data continues to grow. There were over 300 orders for release 4, well up on all previous waves. This brings the cumulative number of users of any wave of HILDA Survey data to close to 700. More importantly, use of the HILDA data is reflected in a growing number of academic journal articles, conference papers, reports and other assorted publications. For example, the HILDA bibliography (on the HILDA Survey web site) lists 20 journal articles published in 2006 that used the HILDA Survey data. The HILDA Survey data are also prominent in a growing number of government and government commissioned reports, including, for example, a report by the Productivity Commission on nonstandard employment, and reports commissioned by the Australian Fair Pay Commission and the Australian Government Office for Women.

Wave 6 The other major activity during 2006 was the testing of the Wave 6 survey instruments and the commencement of the Wave 6 fieldwork. The main innovative feature of Wave 6 is the inclusion of questions designed to measure household net worth. This topic was previously included in Wave 2 and thus will provide data users with the first ever person-level measures of changes in household wealth in this country. Significant new content was also added to the self-completion questionnaire. Questions are being asked for the first time about height and weight, and there are numerous new questions designed to improve our understanding of social capital. The battery of items about household expenditure, first included in Wave 5, has also been retained and extended.

Page 6 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

The HILDA Survey Families, Incomes and Jobs Report The HILDA Survey team released its own report during 2006. Titled “Families, Incomes and Jobs”. This is the first of what we hope will be an annual production. The aim of this publication is to provide the public with an easy to read reference tool that summarises what the HILDA Survey data are revealing about changes in the lives of ordinary Australians. The report is available for download from our website. A second report, covering material from the first four waves, has been drafted, and should be available during the first half of 2007.

(cont’d)

Conference Activity

User Training

The HILDA Survey was prominent at two major conferences during 2006. First, was the Methodology of Longitudinal Surveys Conference, held at the University of Essex in July, and featuring representatives from all of the world’s leading longitudinal surveys. Four papers were presented by HILDA Survey data users and members of the HILDA Survey Project team at the Conference, with one of those papers to be published in a special conference monograph. HILDA was represented not only by members of the Melbourne Institute team, but also by senior staff from the Department of Families, Communities Services and Indigenous Affairs (the data owners) and from ACNielsen (the fieldwork provider). The second conference of note was the first ACSPRI Social Science Methodology Conference, held at the University of Sydney in December. Three sessions at this conference were devoted to the HILDA Survey.

As in previous years, we held a training course for data users. This year it was held in Canberra, on 7-9 August, in conjunction with a training course on panel data analysis run by ANU. The course was attended by 67 people, which was close to maximum capacity (we had spaces for 68 people).

CNEF Another significant milestone achieved during 2006 was the incorporation of the HILDA Survey into the Cross-National Equivalent File (CNEF). Prior to 2006, the CNEF provided a set of equivalently defined variables from four panel studies covering four different countries (Britain, Canada, Germany and the USA). The addition of the HILDA Survey makes Australia the fifth member of this exclusive club. Maintained by researchers at Cornell University in the USA, the CNEF data are designed to allow cross-national researchers not experienced in panel data analysis to access a simplified version of these panels, while providing experienced panel data users with guidelines for formulating equivalent variables across countries. Most importantly, the equivalent file provides a set of constructed variables (for example pre- and postgovernment income and international household equivalence weights) that are not directly available on the original surveys. Details on how to access the CNEF data files can be found on the HILDA Survey web site.

The HILDA Survey Team

Page 7 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Applied Macroeconomics Highlights in 2006

Research in 2006

Manpower-Melbourne Institute Employment Report

Economic Indicators and Business Cycles

In November 2006, the Applied Macroeconomics team produced the first monthly issue of the ManpowerMI Employment Report. The Report provides forecasts of the growth in employment for Australia and the states of: Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. The forecasts are based on a time series model which utilises historical information as well as exclusive forward information contained in surveys conducted by the Melbourne Institute and by Manpower. The Report contains both point and interval forecasts of expected employment. The Report will be updated monthly to provide timely on-going information about the outlook for employment.

Modelling Changes in Output Volatility in the Global and Domestic Economies This project aims to understand a stylised fact of economic growth— the global and domestic decline in the volatility of the quarterly growth rates of output in several major economies since the mid-1980’s. The research provided evidence on the relative importance of changes in macroeconomic policy and luck – in the sense of fewer common international shocks – in explaining the observed moderation of global economic fluctuations. (Penny Smith) Decomposing Macroeconomic Time Series into Permanent and Transitory Components This research is concerned with understanding techniques to decompose a macroeconomic time series into its permanent (trend) component and its transitory (recurrent fluctuations around the trend) component. A framework for investigating business cycle asymmetry by allowing regime switches in both the permanent and transitory components has been developed. (Chin Low)

Research Grants

The Applied Macroeconomics team was awarded an ARC Discovery Grant for the project ‘Consumption, Housing Wealth and Financial Wealth in the Long Run’. Faculty Grants were awarded for the following projects: ‘Micro Evidence from the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Survey Index: A Vector Autoregression Analysis’ and ‘Forecasting Australian Time Series with a Large Variable Set’. Publications

Journal publications include articles in Economics Letters, Applied Financial Economics, Computational Economics, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, North American Journal of Economics and Finance and the Australian Economic Review.

Page 8 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Macroeconomics and Financial Behavior

Rating Transitions: How Do They Vary with the Business Cycle? The aim of the project is to analyse the dynamic behaviour of migration transition matrices and to determine its co-variation with economic conditions. A new econometric approach has been developed to estimate a multi-state latent factor intensity model. The approach has been applied to analyse the changes in Standard and Poor’s long term credit ratings and how they were affected by macroeconomic conditions. (Michael Chua, Guay Lim and Penny Smith) A Currency Union Between Australia and New Zealand? This project examines the case for a monetary union, involving a common currency and a common central bank, between Australia and New Zealand. It gives a statistical profile of features of the economies that are relevant to the economic debate. The analysis follows a neo-Mundellian framework that separates the macroeconomic effects from the microeconomic effects. It examines the effects on individual goods, financial and foreign exchange markets, and discusses public choice issues. (Lei Lei Song)

Applied Macroeconomics Inflation

Comovement between fuel inflation and general inflation in Australia Recent rises in oil prices have caused much concern. This project examines the relationship between the general price level and the relative price of fuel by measuring correlations from VAR forecast errors. The results suggest a significantly positive correlation between quarterly changes in the relative price of fuel and the CPI, at least in the short to medium term from two to four years. The finding has important implications for measuring the long-term trend in inflation as relative price changes in fuel contain important information about future inflation. (Lei Lei Song) Another Look at Models of Inflation Dynamics There is a growing consensus that the level of inflation is positively related with inflation uncertainty (or volatility). This project tests the performance of a wide-variety of inflation models that account for possible nonlinearity and the stochastic behaviour of inflation and inflation volatility within a flexible Markov-switching GARCH framework. The empirical results indicate that linear models fail to model adequately regime dependence in UK and US inflation dynamics and that this mis-specification could potentially lead to spurious inference about the role of inflation volatility on the determination of the level of inflation. (Michael Chua)

(cont’d)

Other Outputs

DSGE Models and Macroeconomic Policies

Central Bank Learning and Inflation Targeting Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium macro models have become widely accepted frameworks to analyse the effects of macroeconomic policies. This project considers the effects of policies in an environment where the central bank learns about the evolution of key economic variables. A recent study explores the effects of incorporating the rate of growth of Tobin’s Q as an additional target to inflation for monetary policy in a learning environment. The simulation results show that state-contingent Taylor rules which monitors inflation and Qgrowth are welfare improving. (Guay Lim) Prior information and DSGE models Bayesian analysis of dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium models is becoming ever more widespread, both in academic and policy making circles. One aspect of this phenomenon which has received little attention to date is the role of the prior distribution of the model parameters. This project considers implications of several commonly used joint priors, such as the prior probability of the model having no solution. The research also considers the fit of a model when the prior on one parameter is changed, holding others constant at prior means. (Penny Smith)

The Applied Macroeconomics team is also responsible for the following publications: • Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends • Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity • Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment • Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment: NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia • TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge • Melbourne Institute Wages Report • Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations • ING DIRECT – Melbourne Institute Household Saving and Investment Report

Media Successes In 2006, the Applied Macroeconomics team again received an enormous amount of media attention. The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment consistently topped the Melbourne Institute monthly media analyses and other products also received attention during 2006.

Page 9 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Applied Microeconomics Overview Major areas of research in 2006 included the economics of health, innovation and intellectual property, and education. The health area has mainly concentrated on nursing labour markets, the role of carers, and the productivity within the public hospital system and primary care. The industrial economics team has continued its work on the intellectual property system and enterprise performance, and the education group has concentrated on the international standing of Australian universities.

Health Economics The development of this research area since April 2005 has involved a number of grant applications to the NHMRC and ARC, in addition to building new links with State and Commonwealth governments. Research has a focus on incentives, behaviour and organisation of the health care system, in addition to some work on the determinants of health: • Health care workforce, labour markets and incentives for health professionals; • Health insurance and health care finance; • Performance, incentives and competition in health care; • The economics of primary health care services; and • The economics of obesity.

A number of new grants were awarded with two notable successes from the ARC being: • Economic Modelling of the Nurses’ Labour Market (ARC Linkage with the Victorian Department of Human Services); and • Blended payment systems for GPs. Evaluation of a national experiment (ARC Discovery grant). Performance in the primary care sector was also an interest of research: • Evaluation of the effect of Divisions of General Practice on performance in primary Care (Australian General Practice Network). • Innovative models of primary health care delivery (Australian Primary Health Care Research Institute). Research with collaborators in the UK began on the economics of obesity, funded by the UK Medical Research Council, which we hope to develop in an Australian context in 2007. Research continued on hospital performance and efficiency funded through an ARC linkage grant with the Victorian Department of Human Services. A number of other grants

Page 10 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Paul Jensen Congratulations are extended to Dr Paul Jensen who was promoted to Senior Research Fellow during the year.

were submitted and are pending. Work was also completed on the impact of care giving on carers for the Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs. Publications in these areas have been submitted or are being prepared for submission for peer reviewed journals.

Industrial Economics Nine research projects have been undertaken within the industrial and innovation area covering topics from trade marks, firm productivity and firm survival. Two projects were undertaken in trade marks and branding. Alfons Palangkaraya and Jongsay Yong analysed both the presence of parallel imported products and the threat of such presence and found that it will reduce the domestic distributor’s market development investment, ceteris paribus. Paul Jensen and Beth Webster examined the effects of market power and product differentiation on demand for grocery products in Australia over the period 2002 to 2005. Three papers were completed on firm productivity. In the first paper, Alfons Palangkaraya and Andreas Waldkirch looked at the link between the patterns of trade-revealed comparative advantage and net inward foreign direct investment in five developed countries: France,

Applied Microeconomics Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In the second, Alfons Palangkaraya and Jongsay Yong examined the link between plant turnover and productivity using Indonesian plant-level data for the period of 1990-95. They found that although new plants enter with relatively lower productivity levels, they exhibit the highest productivity change during the early years. Finally, Alfons, Jongsay and Andreas Stierwald looked at Australian firms and found evidence, though somewhat weak, that larger and older firms are on average less productive. Furthermore, they found stronger evidence for a high degree of inertia in terms of productivity ranking within an industry. Paul Jensen, Beth Webster and Hielke Buddelmeyer completed three papers on the relationship between firm survival and innovation. While successful innovation contributed to firm longevity, current innovation was associated with higher death rates. In addition, they found the new firms

tended to flourish in more innovative industries but were more susceptible to macroeconomic downturns than established firms. Paul Jensen and Beth Webster examined the relation between firms’ learning styles and their main forms of appropriating profits. Using survey data from over 600 Australian firms they found evidence to confirm the “paradox of openness” and other effects of firms’ management of knowledge flows such as the complementarity between patents and secrecy.

Education Economics Ross Williams and Nina Van Dyke continued their work on evaluating the international academic standing of Australian universities. A major study on rating disciplines in Australian universities was completed. The study involved both a survey of leading academics both within Australian and internationally, and the compilation of quantitative measures of performance. Seven disciplines

(cont’d)

were evaluated: Arts & Humanities, Business & Economics, Education, Engineering, Law, Medicine, and Science. There was a strong correlation between the survey results and the performance measures. The results indicate that in about 25 cases disciplines in Australian universities rate in the top 100 in the world; the standout performers are Science at ANU and Medicine at the University of Melbourne. In a commissioned study, individual departments within the University of Melbourne were evaluated against research performance in other leading Australian departments. Nina Van Dyke, Paul Jensen, and Beth Webster completed the report of employers’ views on the quality of University of Melbourne graduates.

The Applied Microeconomics Team

Page 11 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Labour Economics and Social Policy Overview 2006 proved to be an exciting and productive year for the Labour Economics and Social Policy (LESP) research program. The Social Policy Research Services (SPRS) contract under the management of the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR) entered its second year and has continued to be a rewarding partnership. 2006 saw the completion of all 2005 projects, the commencement of eight new projects and agreement on a further eight new projects to commence in 2007. The team expanded during the year, with the arrival of two Research Fellows, one Research Officer and several other offers of employment made to commence in 2007.

Several LESP team members were successful in obtaining ARC/ NHMRC Grants. Publication activity remained strong, with one book, eight journal articles and twelve working papers and reports published during the year. Conference activity and participation was also high, with LESP staff contributing to many notable national and international conferences, Making the Boom Pay: Economic and Social Outlook Conference (Melbourne, November), the Australian Conference of Economists (Perth, September), the Nordic Seminar on Microsimulation Models (Norway, July) and the Econometric Society Australasian Meeting (Alice Springs, July). The LESP research program recorded a financial surplus, which will be invested in capacity building and the pursuit of high quality research.

Social Policy Research Services Contract 2006 was the second year of the research partnership with DEWR. There were several changes to the management of the contract, the main one being that Professor Kostas Mavromaras took over from Professor Mark Wooden as Chief Investigator in July. A highly successful first SPRS annual conference was organised by DEWR in May with impressive participation by the Melbourne Institute’s staff. Plans are being made for a second SPRS Conference to be held in September 2007. Several meetings of the Research Management Committee were held throughout the year both in Canberra and Melbourne. The last meeting in November saw the official approval and endorsement of the 2007 Research Agenda. Projects started and/or completed in 2006 are listed below in Table 1.

Table 1: SPRS Projects in 2006 SPRS projects carried over from 2005 and completed in 2006 01/05

Income support reliance in Australia

02/05

Previous income support experience of people granted DSP

03/05

An examination of welfare transitions using the first three waves of the HILDA Survey

05/05

Labour force outcomes for the mature age population

07/05

The dynamics of income support receipt among ‘new’ income support customers

08/05

Duration analysis of income support spells initiated by unemployment

09/05

Transitions from casual employment in Australia

SPRS projects started and completed in 2006 04/06

Mature age employment and workplace strategy

SPRS projects started in 2006 and continuing in 2007 01/06

Use of informal childcare and decisions on work by income support recipients

02/06

Stepping stones—do low paid jobs lead to increased earnings and lower welfare dependency over time (‘low pay dynamics’)?

03/06

Possible cost shifting from workers compensation to income support for people with work-related disabilities

05/06

Location economics of income support recipients

06/06

Skill shortages and the absence of wage pressures

07/06

Working credits—a low cost alternative to universal income tax credits?

08/06

Link between changes in employment and changes in income support.

Page 12 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Labour Economics and Social Policy (cont’d)

Economic Evaluation of Obesity Prevention In July 2006 researchers in Aberdeen and Melbourne launched a multidisciplinary study with the objective of finding effective and efficient ways of helping to prevent adults from becoming obese and then suffering the ill-health caused by the condition. The study involves specialists in economics, public health, clinical nutrition, systematic review, epidemiology and sociology. They have joined forces to carry out an economic evaluation of lifestyle interventions, such as dieting and exercise, which aim to prevent obesity in adults. Professor Kostas Mavromaras, was the original Principal Investigator of the project and will continue to lead the Melbourne based component of the research team, which also includes other Melbourne Institute staff members, Ms Alison Goode and Professor Tony Scott. The research team will spend three years taking a multi-phased approach to the study. It will begin with a review of existing data about methods for preventing obesity. As part of this study, the researchers hope to speak to people who are obese or at risk of becoming overweight about their perceptions of obesity and its prevention. Researchers will also gather information on good and bad lifestyle interventions by speaking to GPs, regional health boards, NHS Health Scotland, NHS Health Quality Improvement Scotland, NICE (National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence) and the UK Department of Health. They will also analyse the large amounts of data that have been collected over many years within the UK to estimate how changes in lifestyle might lead to changes in the risk of obesity and in

the incidence of diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer, and their related costs. The project has a great deal of potential for further innovative multidisciplinary research on obesity in Australia.

Smaller Projects and Consultancies Modelling the Demand for Childcare and Household Labour Supply This project was commissioned by the Australian Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, providing an update on earlier research. This project started in December 2005 and the draft report was submitted in August 2006. The Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS) Model: Training and Technical Assistance The Commonwealth Treasury negotiated a contract with the Melbourne Institute for the provision of training in and assistance with the Melbourne Institute’s microsimulation model in 2005. Several training courses on MITTS were delivered to the Department in 2006 and a small project to calculate labour supply elasticities was also undertaken. Women and Retirement

The Australian Government Office for Women commissioned a report, ‘Aspects of Retirement for Older Women’, which was completed and published in July 2006. Coverage of the Federal Minimum Wage Project commissioned by the Australian Fair Pay Commission.

Characteristics of Employers of the low paid Project commissioned by the Australian Fair Pay Commission. Poverty Lines Agreement has been reached with Westpac to produce on a continuing basis a quarterly, regional level Poverty Lines report. Federal Government Funding of Non-Government Schools This was undertaken for the Yeshivah Centre. International Reform Monitor Since 1999, the Melbourne Institute has been a partner organisation of the International Reform Monitor project, a network of representative organisations from 15 OECD countries. Initiated and coordinated by the Bertelsman Foundation (Germany), the network monitors and produces publications on developments in labour market policy, industrial relations and social policy in member countries. Other Projects Several smaller projects were undertaken in 2006, advising the Department of Treasury and Finance (Victoria), the Productivity Commission, and the Taskforce on Care Costs.

Collaboration with the Brotherhood of St Laurence During 2006, a new position, the Ronald Henderson Research Fellow, was established at the Melbourne Institute, and is jointly funded by the Brotherhood and the Melbourne Institute. The position, occupied by Dr Rosanna Scutella, works with the LESP team providing collaboration with the Brotherhood on issues concerning the disadvantaged people of Australia.

Page 13 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Labour Economics and Social Policy (cont’d)

ARC Successes Several members of the LESP team were successful in obtaining ARC Grants in 2006: ARC Discovery • Yi-Ping Tseng (with A/Prof Garry Barrett, School of Economics, University of New South Wales and Professor Tom Crossley, Department of Economics, McMaster University), ‘Understanding the Saving Behaviour of Australian Households: Private Retirement Provision and the Policy of Forced Saving’, funding of $300,000 over 3 years. ARC Discovery • Guyonne Kalb (with Professor John Creedy, Department of Economics), ‘The effects of the tax and social security system on labour supply and social welfare’, funding of $345,000 over 3 years. ARC Linkage • Guyonne Kalb and Anthony Scott (with John Creedy and Michael Shields, Department of Economics), ‘Economic Modelling of the Nurses’ Labour Market in Australia’, funding of $410,239 over three years. The linkage partner is the Department of Human Services.

Finances and Staffing in 2006 As projected, the program ended the year 2006 with a considerable financial surplus. Staffing developments reflected a healthy increase in demand for the LESP team’s contract services. Key changes were: • Dr Seamus McGuinness commenced as a Research Fellow in June 2006. • Dr Sung-Hee Jeon commenced as a Research Fellow in September 2006. • Dr Rosanna Scutella returned to the Melbourne Institute as the Ronald Henderson Research Fellow in July 2006. • Dr Yi-Ping Tseng returned to the Melbourne Institute from her study leave at McMaster University in July 2006. • Mr Mark van Zijll de Jong commenced as a Research Officer in November 2006. Several other offers of employment were made during 2006 and are planned to start in 2007. There will also be some new positions created within the LESP team in 2007. At the end of 2006, the LESP research program employed 18 researchers with the equivalent of 16.1 full-time employees.

Economic Society of Australia Best Paper of 2005 Associate Professor Guyonne Kalb was awarded a prize for having contributed the best paper of 2005 in the Economic Record, 81(254), 215–36. She won this prize jointly with Dr Denise Doiron from the University of New South Wales. The paper is titled ‘Demands for Child Care and Household Labour Supply in Australia’.

Page 14 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

John Freebairn, Ken Henry, Ross Garnaut

Contributions to Policy Analysis and Knowledge Transfer One of the Melbourne Institute’s strategic objectives is to contribute to economic and social policy discussion in Australia. Indeed, this objective has a major influence on almost all of the Institute’s activities. Examples of some of the more obvious ways the Institute has contributed to enhancing policy debate in 2006 follow: • Organisation of our 4th Economic and Social Outlook Conference, in association with The Australian newspaper (see pp. 17-18). • Organisation of our quarterly forums in Melbourne and Canberra (p. 16). • Provision of key economic indicators, including: the WestpacMelbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity; the WestpacMelbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment; the TD Securities-Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge; and the Manpower-Melbourne Institute Employment Report (pp. 32-33)

• Publication of The Australian Economic Review, arguably Australia’s leading academic journal specialising in policy-relevant applied economic research (p. 31). • Delivery of Release 4 of the HILDA Survey data set to over 300 individual users (p. 6). • The HILDA Survey was included in the Cross-National Equivalent File (CNEF). • Close to 100 presentations made by staff members to a wide range of audiences, both in Australia and overseas (pp. 28-31). • Preparation of commissioned reports for a wide range of

government and agencies, including: the Australian Fair Pay Commission; the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations; the Department of Families, Communities Services and Indigenous Affairs; and the Australian Government Office for Women. • Publication of 29 papers by staff members on a range of topics in our Working Paper Series. • Extensive contribution to the electronic and print media, as reflected in approximately 2500 media mentions according to our media log service.

Page 15 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Melbourne Institute Forums Economics Forum in Melbourne The Melbourne Institute Economics Forum in Melbourne entered its ninth year in 2006 and generated considerable interest. The quarterly forums were well attended. Luncheons were held on 6 April at the Sofitel, 13 July at the Park Hyatt and 19 September at the Grand Hyatt in Melbourne. At each forum, the Melbourne Institute’s forecasts were presented and discussed by Associate Professor Mark Crosby (Melbourne Business School and Research Associate of the Applied Macroeconomics research program). A particular policy issue was also covered and discussed at each forum. The forums were chaired by Mr Tony Cole AO (Mercer Investment Consulting) and Mr Phil Ruthven (IBISWorld).

Topics and Speakers in 2006 Reforming the Health Care System: Lessons and Future Directions (6 April) Professor Tony Scott (Melbourne Institute) Dr Richard Scotton (Health Economist) Mr Peter Allen (Department of Human Services) Are Deficits a Problem? (13 July) Professor John Freebairn (Melbourne Institute) Professor Max Corden (John Hopkins University and The University of Melbourne)

The Dynamics of Economic and Social Change: Insights from HILDA (19 September) Associate Professor Bruce Headey (Melbourne Institute) Mr David Hazlehurst (Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs) Professor Mark Wooden (Melbourne Institute)

Public Economics Forum in Canberra In 2006, the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra continued into its eighth year and maintained strong interest levels. The quarterly forums were well attended. Luncheons were held on 11 April, 21 September and 21 November at the Hyatt Hotel and 11 July at Old Parliament House in Canberra. At each luncheon the Melbourne Institute’s forecasts were presented by Associate Professor Mark Crosby (Melbourne Business School and Research Associate of the Applied Macroeconomics research program), and special topics were canvassed. Each forum was chaired by Dr Ken Henry (Department of the Treasury).

Topics and Speakers in 2006 Reforming the Health Care System: Lessons and Future Directions (11 April) Professor Tony Scott (Melbourne Institute) Mr Andrew Podger (Institute of Public Administration Australia) Are Deficits a Problem? (11 July) Professor John Freebairn (Melbourne Institute) Professor Max Corden (John Hopkins University and The University of Melbourne)

Page 16 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

The Dynamics of Economic and Social Change: Insights from HILDA (21 September) Mr David Hazlehurst (Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs) Professor Mark Wooden (Melbourne Institute) Associate Professor Bruce Headey (Melbourne Institute) A Skilled Workforce for the Future (21 November) Professor Kostas Mavromaras (Melbourne Institute) Dr Peter Boxall (Department of Employment and Workplace Relations)

On 2 and 3 November 2006, the Melbourne Institute and The Australian held their fourth joint Economic and Social Outlook Conference, entitled ‘Making the Boom Pay: Securing the Next Generation of Prosperity’. The conference brought together a varied range of leading thinkers from academia, politics, public service, business, unions and community groups to discuss the relative merits of policy options for Australia over the next decade. The sessions covered by the conference were: • Setting the scene: Making the boom pay • Some big challenges and opportunities: Will the resources boom go on and on? • A fair go for all Australians: Maintaining opportunity and prosperity • Powering the Boom • The new workplace • Pre-school and school • Federalism in the future: Will the next wave of reform deliver? • Work, welfare and family • The new health agenda • Overcoming the water shortage • Social policy in action

• The next wave of tax reform • Urban congestion • Universities in the next decade • Caring for an older Australia • Road blocks to prosperity The speech at the Gala Dinner was given by the Secretary to the Treasury, Dr Ken Henry, who talked about ‘Managing Prosperity’. At lunch on the first day, Vice-President of CRA International Professionals, Dr Brian Fisher talked about the prospects for the natural resources industry and their implications for other sectors of the economy. At the lunch on the second day of the conference, the Leader of the Opposition, The Hon Kim Beazley MP, spoke about a more productive set of CommonwealthState relations for better economic reform. The sessions were well attended over the two days of the conference, with over 350 delegates in attendance. The conference was covered extensively in The Australian and other media. Copies of papers and presentation slides are available for free download from our website www.melbourneinstitute.com.

Speakers and Chairs The Hon Tony Abbott MP Professor Ian Anderson (The University of Melbourne) Mr Gary Banks (Productivity Commission) The Hon Kim Beazley MP Mr Grant Belchamber (Australian Council of Trade Unions) The Hon Julie Bishop MP Professor Jeff Borland (The University of Melbourne) Dr Peter Boxall (Department of Employment and Workplace Relations) Dr Neil Bryon (Productivity Commission) Ms Melinda Cilento (Business Council of Australia) Professor Harry Clarke (La Trobe University) Mr Tony Cole (Mercer Investment Consulting) Professor Glyn Davis AC (The University of Melbourne) Dr Craig Emerson MP Dr Brian Fisher (CRA International Professionals)

Page 17 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Michael Stutchbury, Paul Kelly, Chris Richardson

Professor John Freebairn (The University of Melbourne) Professor Ross Garnaut AO (Australian National University) Ms Julia Gillard MP Ms Pru Goward (Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission) Professor Ann Harding (The University of Canberra) Professor Ian R Harper (Australian Fair Pay Commission) Associate Professor Bruce Headey (The University of Melbourne) Mr Don Henry (Australian Conservation Foundation) Dr Ken Henry (Department of the Treasury) Professor Warren Hogan (University of Technology, Sydney) Mr Andrew Johnson (Australian Council of Social Service) Associate Professor Guyonne Kalb (The University of Melbourne) Mr Paul Kelly (The Australian) The Hon Lynne Kosky MP Mr Steven Münchenberg (Business Council of Australia) Ms Susan Linacre (Australian Bureau of Statistics) Ms Jenny Macklin MP Ms Raymattja Marika (Reconciliation Australia) Professor Kostas Mavromaras (The University of Melbourne)

Professor Barry McGaw AO (The University of Melbourne) Mr George Megalogenis (The Australian) Dr Alan Moran (Institute of Public Affairs) Mr Tony Nicholson (Brotherhood of St Laurence) Professor Kevin O’Connor (The University of Melbourne) Dr Jonathan Pincus (Productivity Commission) Mr Michael Raper (National Welfare Rights Network) Ms Shelley Reys (Arrilla – Indigenous Consultants and Services) Mr Chris Richardson (Access Economics) Professor Field Rickards (The University of Melbourne) Mr John Ringham (SA Water) Ms Angela Robertson (GM Holden Limited) Professor Anthony Scott (The University of Melbourne) Associate Professor Martin Sevior (The University of Melbourne) Mr Rod Sims (Port Jackson Partners Limited) Professor Fiona Stanley AC (Australian Research Alliance of Children and Youth) Mr John Stanley (Bus Association Victoria) Mr Mike Steketee (The Australian)

Page 18 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

The Hon Dr Sharman Stone MP Mr Michael Stutchbury (The Australian) Mr Francis Sullivan (Catholic Health Australia) Mr Wayne Swan MP Professor Neil Warren (The University of New South Wales) Dr Elizabeth Webster (The University of Melbourne) Professor Ross Williams (The University of Melbourne) Mr Alan Wood (The Australian) Professor Mark Wooden (The University of Melbourne) Professor Mike Young (The University of Adelaide)

Advisory Board, 2006 Chairperson

Mr Tony Cole AO, Principal – National Practice Leader, Investment Consulting, Mercer Investment Consulting Members

Professor Margaret Abernethy, Dean, Faculty of Economics and Commerce, The University of Melbourne Ms Carol Austin, Investment Services Director, Contango Asset Management Mr Gary Banks, Chairman, Productivity Commission Dr Peter Boxall, Secretary, Department of Employment and Workplace Relations Professor Max Corden, Professorial Fellow, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Ms Rachel Derham, Business Manager, Melbourne Institute Mr Bill Evans, General Manager, Economics, Westpac Banking Corporation Professor John Freebairn, Director, Melbourne Institute

Dr Jeff Harmer, Secretary, Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs Dr Christopher Kent, Head of Economic Research, Reserve Bank of Australia Professor Guay Lim, Professorial Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute Adjunct Professor Alison McClelland, Executive Director, Strategic Policy, Research and Communications Division, Department of Victorian Committees Professor Kostas Mavromaras, Professorial Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute Mr Tony Nicholson, Executive Director, Brotherhood of St Laurence Mr Phil Ruthven, Executive Chairman, IBISWorld Mr Bill Scales AO, Chairman, Port of Melbourne Corporation Associate Professor Elizabeth Webster, Principal Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute Professor Mark Wooden, Professorial Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute

New Members in 2006

Mr Grant Hehir, Secretary, Department of Treasury and Finance, Victoria Professor John McKenzie, Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research), The University of Melbourne

Members of the Melbourne Institute’s Senior Management Group: from left to right, Mark Wooden, Guay Lim, Kostas Mavromaras, Rachel Derham, John Freebairn, Beth Webster, Tony Scott.

Page 19 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Our Staff, 2006 Research Staff Director Professor John Freebairn MAgEc NE PhD Davis FASSA Professorial Research Fellows Professor Guay Lim BEc MEc PhD ANU (Director, Applied Macroeconomics) Professor Kostas Mavromaras BA Hons Piraeus DPhil York (Director, Labour Economics and Social Policy) Professor Anthony Scott BA Hons Newcastle MSc York PhD Aberdeen Professor Mark Wooden BEc Hons Flin MSc Lond (Deputy Director and Director, HILDA Project) Principal Research Fellows Associate Professor Bruce Headey BA Oxf MA Wisc PhD Strath (Deputy Director, HILDA Project (HILDA Research)) Associate Professor Guyonne Kalb MEc Erasmus PhD Monash Associate Professor Elizabeth Webster BEc Hons MEc Monash PhD Camb (Director, Applied Microeconomics Research Program) Senior Research Fellows Dr Paul Jensen BEc USyd PhD UNSW Dr Roger Wilkins BCom Hons MCom Melb MSc Wisc PhD Melb Dr Jongsay Yong BA BSocSc Hons MSocSc NUS MA PhD Brit Col

Research Fellows Dr Hielke Buddelmeyer MA Vrije PhD NYU Dr Lixin Cai BEd Henan MA Renmin MEc PhD ANU Dr Michael Chua BEc Hons PhD UNE Mr Wang Sheng Lee BA (Eco) Colby MA Michigan (from 1 January 2006) Dr Chin Nam Low BSc Hons MSc London PhD Monash (from 1 May 2006) Dr Sung-Hee Jeon BA Ewha Women’s MA PhD York (Toronto) (from 15 September 2006) Dr Seamus McGuinness BSc (Econ) MSc Queen’s PhD Belfast (from 1 June 2006) Dr Umut Oguzoglu MA PhD Guelph Dr Alfons Palangkaraya BSc UMo MA Penn St PhD Ore St Dr Rosanna Scutella BCom Hons PhD Melb Dr Penelope Smith BEc Hons UWA MCom PhD Melb Dr Lei Lei Song BA E.China MSc Wuhan MEc W’gong PhD Melb Dr Yi-Ping Tseng BEc Taiwan PhD ANU Dr Nina Van Dyke BA Stanford MA PhD U Calif (until 31 December 2006) Dr Julia Witt HonBA Toronto MA PhD Guelph Dr Melanie Davern BSc Hons Melb/ Deakin PhD Deakin (HILDA Survey Analyst) (until 4 September 2006) Mr Simon Freidin BBSc Hons GradDipCompSc LaT (HILDA Survey Database Manager and Analyst)

Page 20 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Ms Alison Goode BA Hons Newcastle Upon Tyne MSc Aberdeen (HILDA Survey Analyst) Mrs Glenys Harding BEc ANU GDipEc Melb (Database Manager and Analyst) (until 31 December 2006) Ms Nicole Watson BSc UWA GDipMgtSc Canb MMedStat Newcastle (Deputy Director, HILDA Project (Survey Management)) Research Officers Mr Paul Agius BA GDipSoc LaT MSc (Applied Statistics) Swinburne (HILDA Database Support Officer) Mr David Black BCom Hons Melb Ms Suzan Ghantous BCom BEc Hons Monash MCom Melb Ms Thi Hong Ha Vu BEc Newcastle Hons ANU Ms Anne Leahy BCom GCertClassics Melb (Survey Data Analyst) Ms Diana Warren BCom MCom Hons W’gong Mr Mark van Zijll de Jong BCom Hons Lincoln (from 8 November 2006) Research Assistant Ms Kerry Ware

Our Staff, 2006 Professional Staff Business Manager Ms Rachel Derham BSc Melb Publications Manager Ms Nellie Lentini BA Monash Communications and Publicity Manager Ms Laura A’Bell Functions Manager Ms Penelope Hope BA LaT Finance Officer Mr Chris Bowden BA/BSc Monash MCom Deakin Computing Systems Officer Mr Woei Tian Liew BSc MSc LaT GDipEc Melb Executive Assistant to the Director Ms Heidi McLean BA Hons UTas MCom Melb (until 12 July 2006) Administrative Assistant, HILDA Mr Duane Barron (until 6 January 2006) Ms Philippa Moore BA Hons UTas (from 22 March 2006) Administrative Assistants Ms Michelle Best BEnvSc LaT Ms Rosy Qin BCom DipEd Melb (until 19 April 2006) Ms Michelle Wilson BA Hons Melb (from 19 June 2006)

PhD Students Passed Kinga Elo In progress (Melbourne Institute students) David Black Matthew Forbes Yashar Gedik Wang-Sheng Lee Andreas Stierwald Ekki Syamsulhakim

Sam Tsiaplias Thi Hong Ha Vu Diana Warren In progress (External students) Catherine Bao (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne) Omar Bashar (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne) Tim Beckett (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne) Avril Horne (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Melbourne) Cara Jones (Department of Political Science, The University of Melbourne) Sze-Young Lim (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne) Jui Saprungrueng (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne) Sue Taylor (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne) Russell Thomson (Division of Economics, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University) Chris Wiew (School of Population Health, The University of Melbourne) Honorary Adjunct Professors Appointments Professor Jeff Borland MA PhD Yale FASSA, Head, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Professor John Creedy BSc (Eco with Stats) Brist BPhil (Eco) Oxf FASSA, Truby Williams Chair of Economics, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne

(cont’d)

Dr Robert Dixon BEc (Hons) Monash, PhD Kent, Reader, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Professor Bill Griffiths BAgEc Hons UNE PhD Illinois FASSA, Professor of Econometrics, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Professorial Fellows Professor Robert Drago BS Tulsa MA PhD Mass/Am, Professor of Labor Studies and Women’s Studies, Pennsylvania State University Professor Alan Duncan BA Hons Manc DPhil York, Professor of Microeconomics, School of Economics, The University of Nottingham Professor Ross Williams BCom Melb MScEc PhD Lond FASSA Principal Fellows Dr Ernst Boehm AUA BEc Hons MEc Adel MCom Melb DPhil Oxf Dr Mark Crosby BEc (Hons) Adelaide MA PhD Queen’s Associate Professor – Economics, Melbourne Business School Dr Gary Marks BSc Hons MSc Melb PhD Qld Associate Professor Michael Shields BA Hons Stafford MSc Health UNY PhD Leic, Associate Professor and Reader, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne Senior Fellows Dr Denise Doiron BA Monc MA PhD UBC, Department of Economics, The University of New South Wales Dr Mark Rogers BSc Lond MSc Warw PhD ANU, Harris Manchester College, Oxford University

Page 21 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Staff Publications, 2006 Books and Monographs Creedy, J. and Kalb, G. Labour Supply and Microsimulation: The Evaluation of Tax Policy Reforms. Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, United Kingdom.

Edited Books Bosworth, D. and Webster, E. (eds), The Management of Intellectual Property. Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, United Kingdom. Creedy, J. and Kalb, G. (eds), Dynamics of Inequality and Poverty. Elsevier: Oxford, United Kingdom.

Book Chapters Bosworth, D. and Webster, E. ‘Intellectual Capital and Intellectual Property: An Economic Perspective’ in Bosworth, D. and Webster, E. (eds), The Management of Intellectual Property. Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, United Kingdom. pp. 85–107. Griffiths, W. and Webster, E. ‘Trends in the Value of Intellectual Property in Australia’ in Bosworth, D. and Webster, E. (eds) The Management of Intellectual Property. Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, United Kingdom, pp. 146–158. Freebairn, J. ‘Some Economics of Floods’ in Poiani, A. (ed), Floods in an Arid Continent (Advances in Ecological Research). Academic Press, India, pp. 180–199. Harris, M.N., Tang, K.K. and Tseng, Y. ‘Employee Turnover: Less is Not Necessarily More?’ in Baltagi, B. (ed), Panel Data Econometrics: Theoretical Contributions and Empirical Applications. Elsevier: Oxford, United Kingdom, pp. 327–350. Jensen, P. and Palangkaraya, A. ‘Innovation scoreboards: An Australian perspective’ in Bosworth, D. and Webster, E.

(eds), The Management of Intellectual Property. Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, United Kingdom, pp. 159–176. Low, C. and Anderson, M. ‘Random Walk Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models’, in Milas, C., Rothman, P. and van Dijk, D. (eds), Non-linear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, Elsevier Science: Amsterdam, Netherlands, pp. 247–280. Scott, A., Sibbald, B. and Laurant, M. ‘Changing Task Profiles’ in Rico, A., Saltman, R.B. and Boerma, W. (eds), Primary Care in the Drivers Seat? Organisational Reform in European Primary Care. Open University Press: Maidenhead, United Kingdom, pp. 149–164.

Journal Articles Refereed Agius, P.A., Dyson, S., Pitts, M.K., Mitchell, A. and Smith, A.M.A. ‘Two Steps Forward and One Step Back? Australian Secondary Students’ Sexual Health Knowledge and Behaviors 1992– 2002’, Journal of Adolescent Health. 38(3): 247–252. Agius, P., Pitts, M. K., Dyson, S., Mitchell, A.M. and Smith, A.M.A. ‘Pregnancy and Contraceptive use in a National Sample of Australian Secondary School Students’, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health. 30(6): 555–557. Bosland, J., Weatherall, K. and Jensen, P. ‘Trade Mark and Counterfeit Litigation in Australia’, Intellectual Property Quarterly. 10(4): 347–377. Buddelmeyer, H., Freebairn, J. and Kalb, G. ‘Evaluation of Policy Options to Encourage Welfare to Work’, Australian Economic Review. 39(3): 273–292.

Page 22 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Cai, L. and Kalb, G. ‘Health Status and Labour Force Participation: Evidence from Australia’, Health Economics. 15(3): 241–261. Cai, L., Creedy, J and Kalb, G. ‘Accounting for Population Ageing in Tax Microsimulation Modelling by Survey Reweighting’, Australian Economic Papers. 45(1): 18–37. Cai, L. ‘An Analysis of Duration on the Disability Support Pension Program’, Australian Economic Papers. 45 (2): 106–126. Creedy, J., Kalb, G. and Scutella, R. ‘Income Distribution in Discrete Hours Behavioural Microsimulation Models: An Illustration’, Journal of Economic Inequality. 4(1): 57–76. Freebairn, J. and Quiggin, J. ‘Water Rights for Variable Supplies’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 50(3): 295–312. French, F., Andrew, J., Awramenko, M., Coutts, H., Leighton–Beck, L., Needham, G., Scott, A. and Walker, K. ‘Why Do Work Patterns Differ Between Men and Women GPs?’, Journal of Health Organisation and Management. 20(2): 163–172. Fry, T. and Webster, E. ‘Conflict Inflation: Estimating the Contributions to Wage Inflation in Australia During the 1990s’, Cambridge Journal of Economics. 30(2): 227–234. Goh, M. and Yong, J. ‘Impacts of Code–share Alliances on Airline Cost Structure: A Truncated Third Order Translog Estimation’, International Journal of Industrial Organization. 24(4): 835–866. Goh, S.K., Lim, G. and Olekalns, N. ‘Deviations from Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in Malaysia’, Applied Financial Economics. 16: 745–759.

Staff Publications, 2006 Headey, B. ‘Subjective Well–Being: Revisions to Dynamic Equilibrium Theory Using National Panel Data and Panel Regression Methods’, Social Indicators Research. 79(3): 369–403. Jensen, P. and Webster, E. ‘Firm Size and the Use of Intellectual Property Rights’, Economic Record. 82(256): 44–55. Jensen, P., Palangkaraya, A. and Webster, E. ‘Disharmony in International Patent Office Decisions’, Federal Circuit Bar Journal. 15(4): 679–704. Johnson, D. and Yong, J. Costly Ageing or Costly Deaths? Understanding Health Care Expenditure Using Australian Medicare Payments Data’, Australian Economic Papers. 45(1): 57–74. Lim, G. and McNelis, P. ‘Central Bank Learning and Taylor Rules with Sticky Import Prices’, Computational Economics. 28: 155–175. Lim, G., Maasoumi, E. and Martin, V. ‘A Re–examination of the Equity Premium Puzzle: A Robust Non–parametric Approach’, North American Journal of Economics and Finance. 17(2): 173–189. Lim, G.C., Martin, G.M. and Martin, V.L. ‘Pricing Currency Options in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility and Non-normalities’, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 16(3): 291-314. Low, C., Anderson, M. and Snyder, D. ‘Single Source of Error State Space Approach to the Beveridge– Nelson Decomposition’, Economics Letters. 91(1): 104–109. Ma, A., Roberts. E., Elliott, R., Bell, D.N.F. and Scott, A. ‘Comparing the NES and LFS: An Analysis of the Differences Between the Data

Sets and their Implications for the Pattern of Geographical Pay in the UK’, Regional Studies. 40(6): 645–665. Marks, G. ‘Influences on, and the Consequences of, Low Achievement’, The Australian Educational Researcher. 33(1): 95–115. Marks, G. ‘Are Between- and WithinSchool Differences in Student Performance Largely due to SocioEconomic Background? Evidence from 30 countries’, Educational Research. 48(1): 21–40. Marks, G. ‘Family Size, Family Type and Student Achievement: CrossNational Differences and the Role of Socioeconomic and School Factors’, Journal of Comparative Family Studies. 37(1): 1–24. Marks, G., Cresswell, J. and Ainley, J. ‘Explaining Socioeconomic Inequalities in Student Achievement: The Role of Home and School Factors’, Educational Research and Evaluation. 12(2): 105–128. Mavromaras, K. and Scott, A. ‘Promotion to Hospital Consultant: Regression Analysis Using NHS Administrative Data’, British Medical Journal. 332: 148–151. McGuinness, S. ‘Overeducation in the Labour Market’, Journal of Economic Surveys. 20(3): 387–418. McGuinness, S. and Bennett, J. ‘Examining the Link between Skill Shortages, Training Composition and Productivity Levels in the Construction Industry: Evidence from Northern Ireland’, International Journal of Human Resource Management. 17(2): 265– 279.

(cont’d)

Scott, A., Gravelle, H., Simoens, S., Sibbald, B. and Bjoke, C. ‘Job satisfaction and quitting intentions. A Structural Model of British General Practitioners’, British Journal of Industrial Relations. 44(3): 519–540. Scott, A., Wordsworth, S., Sullivan, F. and Heaney, D. ‘An Extra Pair of Hands? An Evaluation of Salaried Payment for GPs in Scotland’, Primary Health Care Research and Development. 7(2): 165–171. Song, L. and Freebairn, J. ‘How Big Was the Effect of Budget Consolidation on the Australian Economy in the 1990s?’, Australian Economic Review. 39(1): 35–46. Webster, E. and Jensen, P. ‘Investment in Intangible Capital: An Enterprise Perspective’, Economic Record. 82(256): 82–96. Webster, E., Marks, G. and Wooden, M. ‘Reforming the Labour Market for Australian Teachers’, Australian Journal of Education. 50(2): 185–202. Williams, R. and Dawkins, P. ‘Towards a Level Playing Field for Australian Universities and Students’, Economic Papers, 25(3): 205-220. Witt, J., Brauer, P., Dietrich, L. and Davidson, B. ‘Human Resources and Cost Estimates of Adding a Registered Dietitian to Ontario Family Health Networks’, Canadian Journal of Dietetic Practice and Research. 67(Supplement): S30 – S38. Wooden, M. ‘Implications of Work Choices Legislation’, Agenda – A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform. 13(2): 96–116.

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Staff Publications, 2006 Journal Articles – Non Refereed Scott, A. ‘The Productivity of the Health Workforce’. Australian Economic Review. 39(3): 312–317. Williams, R. ‘Introduction to the Policy Forum: Economics of Sport’, Australian Economic Review, 39(4): 409-11.

Refereed Conference Proceedings Buddelmeyer, H. and Verick, S. ‘The Dynamics and Persistence of Income Poverty in Australia’, Proceedings of the 35th Australian Conference of Economists. Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia. Buddelmeyer, H., Freebairn, J. and Kalb, K. ‘Evaluation of Policy Options to Encourage Welfare to Work’, Proceedings of the 35th Australian Conference of Economists. Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia. Buddelmeyer, H., Jensen, P. and Webster, E. ‘Innovation and the Determinants of Firm Survival’, Proceedings of the 35th Australian Conference of Economists. Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia. Buddelmeyer, H. and Wilkins, R. ‘The Effect of Tightening Smoking Regulations on Individual Smoking Rates,’ European Society for Population Economics Annual Conference, Verona, Italy. Cai, L. ‘Effects of Health on Wages of Australian Men’, Proceedings of the 35th Australian Conference of Economists. Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia.

(cont’d)

Heitmueller, A. and Mavromaras, K. ‘On the Post-Unification Development of Public and Private Pay in Germany’ Proceedings of the 35th Australian Conference of Economists. Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia. Jensen, P. and Webster, E. ‘Managing Knowledge Flows through Appropriation and Learning Strategies’, European Association for Research in Industrial Economics Annual Conference papers. Kalb, G. and Buddelmeyer, H. ‘Labour Supply and Welfare Participation in the Australian Population: Using Observed Job Search to Account for Involuntary Unemployment’, Proceedings of the Australasian Econometrics Society Meetings. Econometric Society, Australia. Lee, W. ‘Propensity Score Matching and Variations on the Balancing Test’, Proceedings of the Australasian Econometrics Society Meetings. Econometric Society, Australia. Lim, G. and McNelis, P. ‘Inflation Targeting, Learning and Q Volatility in Small Open Economies’, Proceedings of the Australasian Econometrics Society Meetings. Econometric Society, Australia. Mavromaras K, Goode, A. and Zangelidis, A. 2006. ‘An Empirical Investigation of the Influence of Employment Status on the Relationship Between Obesity and Healthy Eating for UK Females’, Proceedings of the Australasian Econometrics Society Meetings. Econometric Society, Australia.

Page 24 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Oguzoglu, U. ‘Empirical Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects’, Proceedings of the Australasian Econometrics Society Meetings. Econometric Society, Australia. Song, L. ‘Comovement between Fuel Prices and the General Price Level in Australia’, Proceedings of the Australasian Econometrics Society Meetings. Econometric Society, Australia. Watson, N. and Wooden, M. ‘Modelling Longitudinal Survey Response: The Experience of the HILDA Survey’, Proceedings of the ACSPRI Social Science Methodology Conference. Wilkins, R. ‘Personal and Job Characteristics Associated with Underemployment,’ Proceedings of the 35th Australian Conference of Economists. Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia.

Melbourne Institute Working Papers Anderson, M., Low, C. and Snyder, D. ‘Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition with Markov Switching’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 14/06. Buddelmeyer, H., Freebairn, J. and Kalb, G. ‘Evaluation of Policy Options to Encourage Welfare to Work’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 9/06. Buddelmeyer, H., Jensen, P. and Webster, E. ‘Innovation and the Determinants of Firm Survival’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 15/06.

Staff Publications, 2006 Cai, L., Vu, H. and Wilkins, R. ‘Disability Support Pension Recipients: Who Gets Off (and Stays Off) Payments?’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 18/06. Chua, M. and Suardi, S. ‘Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Jump Diffusion Process with GARCH Errors’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 28/06. Corden, W.M. ‘Those Current Account Imbalances: A Sceptical View’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 13/06. Dixon, R., Freebairn, J. and Lim, G. ‘Time-Varying Equilibrium Rates of Unemployment: An Analysis with Australian Data’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 11/06. Drago, R., Wooden, M. and Black, D. ‘Long Work Hours: Volunteers and Conscripts’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 27/06. Drago, R., Wooden, M. and Black, D. ‘Who Wants Flexibility? Changing Work Hours Preferences and Life Events’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 19/06. Greenhalgh, C., and Rogers, M. ‘Intellectual Property Activity by Service Sector and Manufacturing Firms in the UK, 1996-2000’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 3/06.

Greenhalgh, C. and Rogers, M. ‘Trade Marks and Market Value in UK Firms’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 4/06 Jensen, P. and Webster, E. ‘Managing Knowledge Flows through Appropriation and Learning Strategies’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 6/06. Jensen, P. and Webster, E. ‘Market Power, Brand Characteristics and Demand for Retail Grocery Products’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 5/06. Jensen, P., Webster, E. and Buddelmeyer, H. ‘Innovation, Technological Conditions and New Firm Survival’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 26/06. Lim, G.C. and McNelis, P.D. ‘Fiscal and Current Account Balances in a Model with Sticky Prices and Distortionary Taxes’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 21/06. Lim, G.C. and McNelis, P.D. ‘Inflation Targeting, Learning and Q volatility in Small Open Economies’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 22/06. McDonald, D. ‘150 Issues of The Australian Economic Review: The Changing Face of a Journal over Time’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 1/06.

(cont’d)

Palangkaraya, A. and Waldkirch, A. ‘Relative Factor Abundance and FDI Factor Intensity in Developed Countries’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 12/06. Palangkaraya, A. and Yong, J. ‘Entry, Exit, and Productivity of Indonesian Electronics Manufacturing Plants’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 8/06. Palangkaraya, A. and Yong, J. ‘Parallel Imports, Market Size and Investment Incentive’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 25/06. Palangkaraya, A., Stierwald, A, and Yong, J. ‘Is Firm Productivity Related to Size and Age? The Case of Large Australian Firms’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 7/06. Scutella, R. and Wooden, M. ‘Effects of Household Joblessness on Subjective Well–being’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 10/06. Smith, P. ‘Bayesian Inference for a Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 20/06. Song, L. ‘The Comovement Between Fuel Prices and the General Price Level in Australia’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 17/06.

Page 25 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Staff Publications, 2006 Tseng, Y., Vu, H. and Wilkins, R. ‘Dynamic Properties of Income Support Receipt in Australia’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 23/06. Watson, N. and Wooden, M. ‘Modelling Longitudinal Survey Response: The Experience of the HILDA Survey’, Melbourne Institute HILDA Discussion Paper 2/06. Watson, N. ‘Options for a Top–up Sample to the HILDA Survey’, Melbourne Institute HILDA Discussion Paper 1/06. Wilkins, R. ‘Personal and Job Characteristics Associated with Underemployment’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 16/06. Witt, J., Scott, A. and Osborne, R. ‘Designing Choice Experiments With Many Attributes: An Application To Setting Priorities For Orthopaedic Waiting Lists’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 24/06. Yong, J., Palangkaraya, A., Webster, E. and Dawkins, P. ‘The Income Distributive Implications of recent Private Health Insurance Policies in Australia’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Working Paper No. 2/06.

(cont’d)

Melbourne Institute Report Series Headey, B. ‘A Framework for Assessing Poverty, Disadvantage and Low Capabilities in Australia’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Report Series No. 6. Headey, B. ‘Jobless Households: Longitudinal Analysis of the Persistence and Determinants of Joblessness Using HILDA Data for 2001–03’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Report Series No. 7.

Other Reports and Working Papers Black, D., Oguzoglu, U. and Wilkins, R. ‘Reliance on Income Support in Australia: A Dynamic “IncomeBased” Analysis Using Payments’ Administration Data’, Report for the Australian Government Department of Employment and Workplace Relations. Buddelmeyer, H., Wooden, M. and Ghantous, S. ‘Transitions from Casual Employment in Australia’, Report for the Australian Government Department of Employment and Workplace Relations. Buddelmeyer, H. and Vu, H. ‘The Dynamics of Income Support Receipt among ‘new’ Income Support Customers’, Report for the Australian Government Department of Employment and Workplace Relations.

Page 26 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Cai, L. Vu, H. and Wilkins, R. ‘Previous Income Support Receipt of Entrants to the Disability Support Pension’, Report for the Australian Government Department of Employment and Workplace Relations. Cai, L., Ghantous, S. and Wilkins, R. ‘Duration Analysis of Income Support Spells Initiated by Unemployment’, Report for the Australian Government Department of Employment and Workplace Relations. Crossley, T. and Jeon, S. ‘Joint Taxation and the Labour Supply of Married Women: Evidence from the Canadian Tax Reform of 1988’, Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 404, McMaster University. Crossley, T., Hurley, J. and Jeon, S. ‘Physician Labour Supply in Canada: a Cohort Analysis’, Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 410, McMaster University. Dent, C., Jensen, P., Waller, S. and Webster, E. ‘Research Use of Patented Knowledge: A Review’, Report No 2006/2, for OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry (STI). Paris, France: OECD Publications. Dent, C., Palangkaraya, A., Waller, S., Webster, E., Weatherall, K., Bosland, J., Rotstein, F. and Pryor, S. ‘Pharmaceutical Patents in Australia. Patent Policy and the Rights of Patent Holders’, Report for Medicines Australia. Goode, A. and Watson, N. ‘HILDA User Manual – Release 4.0’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.

Staff Publications, 2006 Headey, B., Freebairn, J., Mavromaras, K., Oguzoglu, U. and Warren, D. ‘Mature Age Employment: Who Works, Who Does Not, and Why? Policy Options for Increased Employment’, Report for the Australian Government Department of Employment and Workplace Relations. Headey, B. and Verick, S. ‘Jobless Households: Longitudinal Analysis of the Persistence and Determinants of Joblessness Using Hilda Data for 200103’, Report for the Australian Government Department of Employment and Workplace Relations. Headey, B., Warren, D. and Harding, G. ‘Families, Incomes and Jobs: A Statistical Report of the HILDA Survey’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research. Johnson, D. and Wilkins, R. 2006. ‘The Causes of Changes in the Distribution of Income in Australia: 1982 to 199798’, Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs Social Policy Research Paper No. 27. Kalb, G., Wilkins, R. and Wooden, M. ‘Synthesis of Melbourne Institute Research, 2000 to 2005’, Report for the Australian Government Department of Employment and Workplace Relations. Leahy, A. ‘Management and Innovation in the 21st Century: Statistical Summary Report for Respondents 2005’, IPRIA Occasional Papers.

Mavromaras, K., Lee, W. and Black, D. ‘An Examination of Welfare Transitions Using the First Three Waves of the HILDA Survey’, Report for the Australian Government Department of Employment and Workplace Relations. McGuinness, S., Freebairn, J., and Mavromaras, K. ‘Characteristics of Minimum Wage Employees’, Report for the Australian Fair Pay Commission. McGuinness, S., Mavromaras, K. and Webster, E. ‘What are the Characteristics of the Employers of the Low Paid in Australia’, Report for the Australian Fair Pay Commission. Scutella, R. and Sheehan, G. ‘To Their Credit: Evaluating an experiment with personal loans for people on low incomes’, Brotherhood of St Laurence. Available on www.bsl. org.au. Van Dyke, N. ‘Employer Feedback on Quality of University Graduates: Evaluation Cycle 2004’, The University of Melbourne. Van Dyke, N. (ed.) ‘R&D Intellectual Property Scoreboard 2005: Benchmarking Innovation in Australian Enterprises’, The University of Melbourne. Warren, D. ‘Aspects of Retirement for Older Women’, Report for the Australian Government Office for Women, Commonwealth of Australia.

(cont’d)

Williams, R. and Van Dyke, N. ‘Rating Major Disciplines in Australian Universities: Perceptions and Reality’, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, November.

Research Higher Degree Theses Elo, K. 2006. ‘Foreign direct investment decisions with country risk and barriers to capital movements: the special case of capital controls’

Page 27 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Seminars and Presentations, 2006

Buddelmeyer, H. ‘Innovation and the Determinants of Firm Survival’, 35th Australian Conference of Economists, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, 25–27 September. Buddelmeyer, H. ‘The Dynamics And Persistence Of Income Poverty In Australia’, 35th Australian Conference of Economists, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, 25–27 September. Buddelmeyer, H. ‘The Dynamics of Income Support Receipt Among New Income Support Customers’, Social Policy Research Workshop, Department of Employment and Workplace Relations, Canberra, 2–3 May. Buddelmeyer, H. ‘Transitions from Casual Employment in Australia’, Social Policy Research Workshop, Department of Employment and Workplace Relations, Canberra, 2–3 May. Cai, L. ‘Be Wealthy to Stay Healthy: The Case of Older Australians’, The 28th Australian Conference for Health Economists, Perth, 28–29 September. Cai, L. ‘Effects of Health on Wages of Australian Men’, 9th Annual Labour Econometrics Workshop, University of South Australia Adelaide, 11–12 August and 35th Australian Conference of Economists, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, 25–27 September. Cai, L. ‘Health Status and Labour Force Status of Older Working–Age Australian Men’, Far Eastern Meeting of the Econometric Society (FEMES), Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, 9–12 July. Chua, C.L. ‘Is There a Unit Root in East–Asian Short–Term Interest

Rates?’, Far Eastern Meeting of the Econometric Society (FEMES), Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, 9–12 July. Freebairn, J. ‘2006–07 Budget’, Monash University, Peninsula Campus, 11 May. Freebairn, J. ‘Economic Principles for the Allocation of Water’, University of Sydney, 13 September. Freebairn, J. ‘Investment and Saving Drive Deficits and Debts’, Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum, Canberra, 11 July and Melbourne Institute Economic Forum, Melbourne, 13 July. Freebairn, J. ‘Macroeconomic Outlook for 2007’, Sydney Finance Conference, 28 September. Freebairn, J. ‘Some Policy Issues in Providing Retirement Incomes’, Australian Social and Economic Policy Lecture Series, Demography & Sociology Program, Australian National University, 6 June and Melbourne Institute Workshop Series, 18 July. Freebairn, J. ‘Tax Mix Change’, Making the Boom Pay: Economic and Social Outlook Conference, University of Melbourne, 2–3 November. Freebairn, J. ‘Taxation and Its Distribution by Level of Government in Australia’, Kunming City, P R China, 21 July. Freebairn, J. ‘The Ageing Population: Some Policy Issues’, Department of Finance and Administrative Services, Canberra, 29 June. Freebairn, J. ‘The Case Against Regional Subsidies’, Growing Regions Conference, Brisbane, 25 July.

Page 28 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Freebairn, J. ‘The Power and the Passion: An Economic Perspective’, University of Melbourne, 17 August. Freebairn, J. ‘Workshop on Research Methodology’, Productivity Commission, Lindenderry, 11 May. Goode, A. ‘Investigating Recall Bias in Reported Events using HILDA, Waves 1– 5’, ACSPRI Social Science Methodology Conference, Sydney University, 10–13 December. Headey, B. ‘Happiness: Revising Dynamic Equilibrium Theory to Account for both Short Term Stability and Long Term Change’, Social Science Research Center, Berlin, 2–3 July. Headey, B. ‘Poverty in Australia: Interstate Comparisons’, Spotlight on Social Justice – SACOSS Conference, Adelaide, 18–19 October. Headey, B. ‘Poverty, Capabilities and Australia’s (COAG’s) New Human Capital Reform Agenda’, Making the Boom Pay: Economic and Social Outlook Conference, University of Melbourne, 2–3 November. Jensen, P. ‘Centenary of Trade Marks in Australia 1906–2006: An Economists Overview’, International Patent Attorney’s Association, Melbourne, 12 July and Sydney, 13 July. Jensen, P. ‘Innovation, Technological Conditions and New Firm Survival’, University of Melbourne, 22 November. Jensen, P. ‘Trade Marks and Demand for Retail Grocery Products’, Presentation to the IPRIA Advisory Board, Melbourne, 6 April. Jensen, P. ‘Labelling Characteristics and Demand for Retail Grocery Products’, European Association for Research in Industrial Economics (EARIE) Conference, University of Amsterdam, 25–27 August.

Seminars and Presentations, 2006 Jensen, P. ‘Patent Examination Decisions and Strategic Trade Behaviour’, Department of Economics, University of Adelaide, 5 May; European Association for Research in Industrial Economics (EARIE) Conference, University of Amsterdam, 25–27 August and 1st Annual Conference of the European Policy for Intellectual Property (EPIP) Association, European Patent Office, Munich, 7–8 September and Invited Presentation, George Washington University Law School, Washington DC, 11 September. Kalb, G. ‘Children, Labour Supply and Childcare: What do we know’, Economic and Social Outlook 2006 Conference, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 2–3 November and Social Policy Research Workshop at the Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, 27–28 November. Kalb, G. ‘Labour Supply and Welfare Participation in the Australian Population: Using Observed Job Search to Account for Involuntary Unemployment’, Seminar at Statistics Norway, Oslo, Norway, 6 June and Econometric Society Australasian Meeting, Alice Springs, 4–7 July and Department of Economics and the Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University, 4 October. Kalb, G. ‘Childcare Demand and Household Labour Supply in Australia: Update and simulation’, Seminar at the Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, 20 October. Kalb, G. ‘Evaluation of Policy Options to Encourage Welfare to Work’, Seminar at the School of Accounting, Economics and

Finance, Deakin University, Burwood Campus, 26 April and Seminar at the Department of Economics and the Department of Econometrics, Monash University, Caulfield Campus, 28 April and Invited Lecture at The 8th Nordic Seminar on Microsimulation Models, Oslo, Norway, June 8–9 and 35th Australian Conference of Economist, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, 25–27 September. Lee, W. ‘Evaluating the Effects of a Mandatory Government Program using Matched Groups within a Similar Geographic Location’, Melbourne Institute Seminar Series, 27 November. Lee, W. ‘Propensity Score Matching and Variations on the Balancing Test’, Econometric Society Australasian Meeting, Alice Springs, 4–7 July and 3rd Conference on Policy Evaluation, Mannheim (Germany), 27–28 October. Lee, W. Discussant of ‘How Do Employment Effects of Job Creation Schemes Differ with Respect to the Foregoing Unemployment Duration?’ by Hujer, R. and S. Thomsen, 3rd Conference on Policy Evaluation, Mannheim (Germany), 27–28 October. Lim, G. Discussant of ‘Public Policy, Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth in Singapore’, Melbourne– NUS Joint Research Symposium, 14–15 December. Lim, G. ‘Inflation Targeting, Learning and Q Volatility in Small Open Economies’, Econometric Society Australiasain Meeting, Alice Springs, 4–7 July and Reserve Bank of Australia Seminar, 7 December.

(cont’d)

Mavromaras, K. ‘A Skilled Workforce for the Future’, Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum, Canberra, 21 November. Mavromaras, K. ‘An Empirical Investigation of the Influence of Employment Status on the Relationship between Obesity and Healthy Eating for UK Females’, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, University of Sydney, 5 May, Econometric Society Australasian Meeting, Alice Springs, 4–7 July and Australian Health Economics Annual conference, Perth, 28–29 September. Mavromaras, K. ‘On the Post– Unification Development of Public and Private Sector Pay in Germany’ Economics Program Seminar Series, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, 2 June, and Australian Conference of Economists, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, 25–27 September. McGuinness, S. ‘Assessing the Impact of Marketing Assistance on the Export Performance of Northern Ireland SME’s’, Irish Economic Association Conference, Wexford, 28–30 April and European Network on Industrial Policy (EUNIP) Conference, Limerick, 20–22 June. McGuinness, S. ‘Assessing the Impact of Skill Shortages on the Productivity Performance of High– tech Firms in Northern Ireland’, Irish Economic Association Conference, Wexford, 28–30 April. McGuinness, S. ‘How Biased are the Estimated Wage Impacts of Overeducation: A Propensity Score Matching Approach’, Irish Economic Association Conference, Wexford, 28–30 April.

Page 29 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Seminars and Presentations, 2006 McGuinness, S. ‘Intra and Inter– Generational Changes in the Returns to Schooling 1991–2002’, Irish Economic Association Conference, Wexford, 28–30 April. Oguzoglu, U. ‘Empirical Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects’, Microeconometrics Seminar Series, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 29 March and the Econometric Society Australasian Meeting, Alice Springs, 4–7 July. Palangkaraya, A. ‘A Comparative Analysis of Patent Examination Outcomes at the Australian, European, Japanese and US Patent Offices’, Melbourne Institute Workshop Series, 21 November. Palangkaraya, A. ‘Disharmony In A Harmonised System: What Drives Different Outcomes at the Worlds Patent Offices’, IPRIA Public Seminar, Brisbane, 28 November and Sydney, 29 November and Melbourne, 1 December. Palangkaraya, A. ‘Patent Examination Decisions and Strategic Trade Behaviour’, All China Economics International Conference – City University of Hong Kong, 21 December. Scott, A. ‘Designing DCEs with Many Attributes: An Application to Priority Setting for Orthopaedic Waiting Lists’, Seminar to Health Economics Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, 22 June and Seminar to Health Economics Group, University of Newcastle, July. Scott, A. ‘Economic Outcomes in Systematic Reviews’, Workshop on Assessing Complex Interventions in Cochrane Systematic Reviews, National Institute of Clinical Studies, Melbourne, May.

Scott, A. ‘Health Care Reform in Australia: Big Bang or Damp Squib?’, Melbourne Institute Economics Forum, Melbourne, 6 April and Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum, Canberra, 11 April. Scott, A. ‘Does Regional Pay Solve Doctor Shortages? Implications for the Cross National Mobility of Doctors’, 6th European Conference on Health Economics, Budapest, 6–9 July. Scott, A. ‘Funding hospitals. Competition or Co–operation?’, Biennial Health Conference, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 14–16 November. Scott, A. ‘Improving the Productivity of the Health Workforce’, Making the Boom Pay: Economic and Social Outlook Conference, University of Melbourne, 2–3 November. Scott, A. ‘The Value of the Network.’, Annual General Practice Network Forum, Gold Coast, 25–28 November. Scutella, R. ‘The Brotherhood’s Social Barometer: Issues facing Australia’s Youth’, Anglicare, Canberra, 25 September. Scutella, R. ‘Effects of Household Joblessness on Subjective Wellbeing’, Australian Institute of Family Studies Seminar, Melbourne, 22 June. Smith, P. Discussant of ‘A re– examination of some recent empirical non–linear real exchange rate models’ by Daniel Buncic, 2006 PhD Conference in Economics and Business, Australian National University, Canberra, 8–10 November. Song, L. ‘Comovement between Fuel Prices and the General Price Level in Australia’, Australasian Macro Workshop in Sydney, 20–21

Page 30 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

(cont’d)

April and Econometric Society Australasian Meeting, Alice Springs, 4–7 July and Australian Treasury, 24 November. Song, L. ‘Discussion on Dynamics of Corporate Credit Spreads in Korea’, The 11th Australasian Macroeconomic Workshop, Sydney, 21 April. Song, L. ‘Response of Consumption to Interest Rates, Income and Credit in Australia’, Australian Treasury, Canberra, 27 October. Van Dyke, N. ‘What do Employers Think of University ff Melbourne Graduates: Results from the Employer Feedback Survey 2005’, Melbourne Institute Seminar Series, 10 October. Warren, D. ‘Labour Force Outcomes for the Mature Age Population’, Social Policy Research Workshop, Department of Employment and Workplace Relations, Canberra, 2–3 May. Watson, N. ‘Evaluation of Alternative Income Imputation Methods: the HILDA Experience’, Methodology of Longitudinal Surveys, University of Essex, Colchester, 12 July. Watson, N. ‘Options for a Top–up Sample to the HILDA Survey’, ACSPRI Social Science Methodology Conference, University of Sydney, Sydney, 11 December. Webster, E. ‘Innovation and Firm Survival’, Melbourne Institute Workshop Series, 6 June and RMIT School of Finance and Business, Melbourne, 21 July. Webster, E. ‘Determinants of International Patent Examination Outcomes’, Innovation Seminar Series, Haas Business School, University of California, Berkeley, 13 September.

Seminars and Presentations, 2006 Webster, E. ‘Innovation and the Determinants of Firm Survival’ Seminar Series, Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), Mannheim, 4 September. Webster, E. ‘Managing Knowledge Flows through Appropriation and Learning Strategies’, European Association for Research in Industrial Economics Annual Conference, Amsterdam, 25–27 August. Wilkins, R. ‘Duration Analysis of Income Support Spells Initiated by Unemployment’, Social Policy Research Workshop, Department of Employment and Workplace Relations, Canberra, 2–3 May. Wilkins, R. ‘Income Support Reliance in Australia’, Social Policy Research Workshop, Department of Employment and Workplace Relations, Canberra, 2–3 May. Wilkins, R. ‘Personal and Job Characteristics Associated with Underemployment,’ Melbourne Institute Workshop Series, 12 September and Australian Conference of Economists, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, 25–27 September. Wilkins, R. ‘The Effect of Tightening Smoking Regulations on Individual Smoking Rates’, European Society for Population Economics Annual Conference, Verona, Italy, 22 June. Williams, R. ‘Bibliometrics and Ranking of Disciplines and Universities’, Research Forum, University of Melbourne, 7 June. Williams, R. ‘Ranking of Melbourne Disciplines/Departments’, Conference of Deans and Heads, University of Melbourne, Lorne, 7 February.

Witt, J. ‘Welfare Effects of Banning Genetic Information in Insurance Markets: The Case of the BRCA1/2 Genes’, ANU, 1 November. Wooden, M. ‘Does the Australian Fair Pay Commission Matter?’, Public Lecture, University of Melbourne, 15 November. Wooden, M. ‘Identifying Factors Affecting Longitudinal Survey Response’, Methodology of Longitudinal Surveys Conference, University of Essex, Colchester (UK), 12–14 July. Wooden, M. ‘Modelling Longitudinal Survey Response: The Experience of the HILDA Survey’, ACSPRI Social Science Methodology Conference, University of Sydney, 10–13 December. Wooden, M. ‘Modelling Non– response in Panel Survey: the HILDA Experience’, Melbourne Institute Workshop Series, 20 June. Wooden, M. ‘The Changing Nature of Work: Review of Melbourne Institute Research, 2000–2005’, Social Policy Research Workshop, Department of Employment and Workplace Relations, Canberra, 2–3 May. Wooden, M. ‘The HILDA Survey: The First Five Years (or so)’, Department of Economics Seminar Series, Macquarie University, 25 August. Wooden, M. ‘Who Wants Flexibility? Changing Work Hours Preferences and Life Events’, Conference of the International Association for Feminist Economists, University of Sydney, 7–9 July.

(cont’d)

Wooden, M. ‘Work Choices: Will it Make a Difference?’, BIS Shrapnel Business Forecasting Conference, Sofitel Hotel, Melbourne, 7 March and Four Seasons Hotel, Sydney, 9 March. Wooden, M. ‘Working Time: Insights from HILDA’, Melbourne Institute Economic Forums, Melbourne and Canberra, 19 and 21 September. Yong, J. ‘Is Firm Productivity Related to Firm Size and Age? The Case of Large Australian Firms’, 2006 Far Eastern Meeting of The Econometric Society, Beijing, China, 9–12 July. Yong, J. ‘Measuring Hospital Productivity Performance’, Victorian Department of Human Services, Melbourne, 6 June. Yong, J. ‘Measuring Quality of Hospitals’, Victorian Department of Human Services, Melbourne, 11 December. Yong, J. ‘On the Legal Treatment of Parallel Imports: An Economic Perspective’, Melbourne Institute Workshop Series, 28 April.

Page 31 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Publications by Subscription Melbourne Institute Journals Australian Economic Review

In 2006 the format of the Australian Economic Review (volume 39) remained unchanged, and continued to retain its strong emphasis on issues of contemporary policy relevance. A Policy Forum was published in each issue. The Policy Forums covered the trade versus aid debate, energy markets, Australia’s health workforce, and the economics of sport.

The contributed articles covered a diverse mix of topics. Each issue contained both a special article for tertiary students, and a data survey to highlight the availability and attributes of different databases. A summary of the composition of articles published in the Review in recent years is provided in Table 2. Table 3 provides information on the receipt, progress and decisions taken on submissions of contributed articles in 2006, and in earlier years for

comparison. Over the year, 68 new articles were submitted, about 15 per cent higher than in recent years. The backlog of accepted articles awaiting publication is now two issues. Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends

This quarterly publication is sponsored by Mercer Investment Consulting. It provides an authoritative analysis of the international, national and state economic environments, with a

Table 2: Articles Published in the Australian Economic Review, 2003 to 2006 Type of Article

2003

Invited Articles

2004

2005

2006

Contributed Articles

Policy Forum

Data Surveys

For the Student

463

464

469

456

Pages

Table 3: Contributed Articles, 2003 to 2006 Contributed Papers Brought forward from previous year (a) Submissions during year

2003

2004

2005

2006

Decisions Made Accepted: Published Accepted: In queue

Rejected/withdrawn

Resubmit

In process

TOTAL

Note:

(a) Sum of acceptances in queue, re-submissions and articles in process.

Page 32 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Publications by Subscription particular focus on reading the business cycle. In particular, it includes forecasts generated by the Melbourne Institute Time Series Forecasting Model. In addition, most issues include one or more special topics of current interest. Publication of this journal ceased at the end of 2006—issue 4.06 being the last issue.

Melbourne Institute Economic and Social Indicators Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity

Published monthly, the Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity examines movements in leading and coincident indicators of economic activity in Australia, together with comparative data from overseas. Indexes of economic activity are designed to enhance the decisionmaking process of financial and business managers as well as policy makers by anticipating and identifying turning points in the economy. Each index blends several variables which reflect different aspects of the economy; their combination is intended to give a more representative picture than would any one indicator by itself. Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment

The Consumer Sentiment Index is an average of five component indexes which reflect consumers’ evaluations of their household financial situation over the past year and the coming year, anticipated economic conditions over the coming year and the next five years, and buying conditions for major household items. Assessments

(cont’d)

Melbourne Institute Wages Report

about future unemployment are also recorded. Each quarter, consumers are also surveyed about their views on buying conditions for cars and dwellings, the wisest place to invest savings and economic news recall. This report is produced monthly. Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment: NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia

Each quarter key consumer sentiment data are published in relation to New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. In June 2006, the South Australian Consumer Sentiment Index was included in the report. Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations

The consumer inflationary expectations measures are designed to represent the average householder’s expected rate of consumer price changes over the coming 12 months. The survey produces a direct measure of inflationary expectations as consumers are asked whether, and by how much, they believe prices will go up or down. The report is produced monthly.

This report records employees’ (self-reported) wage changes over the previous 12-month period. This survey has been designed to capture the growth in wage rates per hour. It adds to our knowledge about wages and provides a useful alternative to Australian Bureau of Statistics measures of earnings per person and a complement to the labour cost index. This report is produced quarterly. ING DIRECT – Melbourne Institute Household Saving and Investment Report

This survey-based report contains information about households’ current and future saving behaviour, their reasons for saving, the structure of household assets and debts, and households’ assessments of the best ways to invest savings. This report is produced quarterly. TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge

TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute have developed a monthly inflation indicator to give markets and policy makers a monthly update on inflation trends. Based on the methodology used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics to calculate the quarterly consumer price index, this publication estimates month-tomonth price movements for a wideranging basket of goods and services across the main capital cities. This report is produced monthly.

Page 33 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Publications by Subscription Manpower – Melbourne Institute Employment Report

This report provides forecasts of the growth in employment for Australia and the states of Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. The forecasts are based on a time series model which utilises historical information as well as exclusive forward information contained in surveys conducted by the Melbourne Institute and Manpower. The report contains both point and interval forecasts of expected employment. This report is updated monthly. Poverty Lines: Australia

Poverty Lines: Australia is a quarterly newsletter that updates the Henderson Poverty Line as defined in the 1973 Commonwealth Commission of Inquiry into Poverty. It is standard reference material for those concerned with social welfare policy in Australia. Minimum income levels required to avoid a situation of poverty are presented for a range of family sizes and circumstances. The updated poverty lines take into account changes in the average income level of all Australians, reflecting the idea that poverty is relative. Each issue includes a table indicating changes in the purchasing power of the poverty lines and a table comparing welfare payment levels with poverty lines for various family types.

Other Melbourne Institute Publications Melbourne Institute News

Melbourne Institute News was introduced in late 1999 to keep people abreast of various developments at the Melbourne Institute. Stories cover a range of items from all three major research programs, the HILDA Survey, conferences, forums and seminars. This newsletter is produced quarterly. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series

The Melbourne Institute working papers are indicative of research projects undertaken within the Melbourne Institute. In 2006, 28 working papers were produced. Melbourne Institute Reports

The Melbourne Institute publishes ad hoc reports on important economic and social topics investigated by Melbourne Institute researchers. Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey Annual Report 2006

The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey is a household-based panel survey, which aims to track all members of an initial sample of households over an indefinite life. Further, the sample is automatically extended over time by ‘following rules’ that add to the sample any

Page 34 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

(cont’d)

new children of members of the selected households as well as new household members resulting from changes in the composition of the original households. Accompanying the release of the fifth wave of data from the HILDA Survey, the Annual Report provides information on the activities undertaken for the HILDA project thus far. Highlights from the Wave 5 data, together with a list of publications and information on how to access the HILDA data, are included in the report. Families, Incomes and Jobs: A Statistical Report of the HILDA Survey

The aim of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey is to provide, on an annual basis, a new type of social statistics for Australia—longitudinal panel statistics describing the ways in which people’s lives are changing. The Statistical Report of the HILDA Survey contains short reports and statistical tables covering the four main areas of HILDA: households and family life, incomes and wealth, employment and unemployment/ joblessness, and life satisfaction and well-being. Particular emphasis is given to the persistence of problems over the first three years of the HILDA survey (for example, the persistence of poverty over three years).

Publications by Subscription R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard 2006: Benchmarking Innovation in Australian Enterprises

This publication is the most comprehensive assessment to date of the innovative activities of large Australian enterprises. It provides an invaluable information source for benchmarking and competitor analysis. The innovative activities covered by the report include the latest available information on the level of R&D and applications for intellectual property (patents, trade marks and designs). The report includes an innovation index, ranking Australiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most innovative firms; R&D expenditure and intensity rankings for parent companies; the level and intensity of intellectual property applications for parent companies; and industry listings (all measures combined). This is the ninth report produced in this series. Copies can be purchased from IPRIA, University of Melbourne.

Media Activities In 2006, identified media mentions maintained a very high level of approximately 2,500 references. This was a similar figure to 2005, which saw a 110 per cent increase from 2004. These media references to the Melbourne Institute and its staff were noted in the print media and on television and radio. Melbourne Institute staff and products were cited in The Australian, The Weekend Australian, The Australian Financial Review, The Age, The Sunday Age, Herald Sun, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Canberra Times, The Courier Mail, The West Australian, Northern Territory News and various other newspapers. There were also media mentions in various international newspapers, journals and magazines, even as diverse as Marie Claire and Rolling Stone.

(contâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;d)

Staff at the Melbourne Institute were regularly featured as television and radio guests, participating in public debate through contributions to all media outlets. An on-line expert guide is available at www.findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au. In addition, products from the Melbourne Institute were regularly featured on national television and radio shows during 2006.

The Melbourne Institute maintained a very high level of media mentions in 2006 further increasing its profile as a leading economic and social research institution.

Page 35 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

Finance and Performance Indicators Income of the Melbourne Institute, 2002 to 2006 Income Non-University funds

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

$4,773,959

$7,116,242

$7,706,733

$8,506,488

$9,051,614

made up of: Subscription services

$188,859

$200,069

$127,383

$137,366

$134,806

Forums/Conferences

$345,935

$318,221

$144,063

$228,197

$264,478 $7,931,174

Contract research

$4,039,946

$6,457,114

$7,133,888

$7,728,851

Grants

$199,219

$140,838

$301,399

$412,074

$721,156

Faculty of Economics Department allocation

$150,000

$397,630

$1,115,240

$1,218,209

$1,178,320

Other University funds Total Income

$852,929

$616,448

$794,409

$510,798

$754,128

$5,776,888

$8,130,320

$9,616,382

$10,235,495

$10,984,062

Performance Indicators, 2002 to 2006 A. Staffing

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

15%

$170,219 –63%

$122,838 –28%

$301,399 145%

$412,074 37%

$721,156 75%

Other Public Research Grants

$2,911,180 –12%

$5,927,229 104%

$6,069,664 2%

$6,535,050 8%

$7,931,174 21%

Industry and Other Research Funds

$1,653,559 103%

$1,320,251 –20%

$1,335,670 1%

$1,559,364 17%

$399,284 -74%

Total External Research Income

$4,734,958 3%

$7,370,318 56%

$7,706,733 5%

$8,506,488 10%

$9,051,614 6%

Refereed Journal Articles: weighted DEST points

22 58%

18.5 –16%

27.5 49%

32.9 33%

20.7 -37%

Total Publications: weighted DEST points

29.8 76%

19 –36%

37.6 98%

54.1 77%

38.7 -28%

27 –27%

21 –22%

25 19%

50 80%

29 -36%

4.5 0%

5 11%

5 0%

540 –4%

268 –50%

246 –8%

277 13%

305 10%

$478,965 –8%

$548,548 15%

$566,288 3%

$615,756 9%

$781,587 27%

3. References to the Melbourne Institute in the media

956 62%

1,235 29%

1,196 –3%

2,479 107%

2,483 0%

4. References to the Melbourne Institute in Parliament

15 150%

21 40%

12 -43%

34 183%

13 -62%

$5,776,888 3%

$8,130,320 41%

$9,616,382 18%

$10,235,495 6%

$10,984,062 7%

Melbourne Institute Staff Total Number (as at December) B. Research Performance Indexes 1. Research Income National Competitive Research Grants

2. Publications

Refereed Journal Articles (count) 3. Higher Degree Students Research Higher Degree Students (full-time equivalent) Research Higher Degree Completions

C. Indicators with Respect to Business, Government and Public Policy Debates 1. Subscriptions to Melbourne Institute Products (excluding Australian Economic Review) 2. Value of Subscriptions and Sponsorship

C. Financial Performance 1. Total Income

Page 36 – Annual Report 2006 and Outlook 2007

annual report 2006 and outlook 2007

Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Level 7 Alan Gilbert Building 161 Barry St The University of Melbourne Victoria 3010 Australia P: +613 8344 2100 F: +613 8344 2111