Business24 Newspaper (March 30, 2020) by Business24 Online

EDITION B24 | 24

MONDAY MARCH 30, 2020

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Ofori-Atta to unveil GH¢1bn COVID-19 package today

Ports to work amid partial lockdown

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INTERNATIONAL MARKET

*EXCHANGE RATE (INT. RATE)

USD$1 =GH¢5.6896*

EXCHANGE RATE (BANK RATE)

USD$1 =GH¢5900.*

*POLICY RATE GHANA REFERENCE RATE *INFLATION RATE PRODUCER PRICE INFLATION:

14.5%* (YET TO BE SET) 7.8%* 11.8%

BRENT CRUDE $/BARREL NATURAL GAS $/MILLION BTUS GOLD $/TROY OUNCE CORN $/BUSHEL COCOA $/METRIC TON COFFEE $/POUND:

91 DAY TREASURY BILL INTEREST RATE

14.7586%

SUGAR $/POUND

AVERAGE PETROL & DIESEL PRICE:

GHc 5.13*

SILVER $/TROY OUNCE:

-2.50 ($26.23) -0.10 ($1.63) -39.50 ($1,486.30) -8.75 ($335.25) -34.00 ($2,284.00) +5.70 ($108.30) -0.22 ($10.67) -0.50 ($12.00)

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MONDAY MARCH 30, 2020

News/Editorial 1

Wash your hands 2

Cover your cough 3

If you are sick, wear mask Brought to you by

Editorial: Assessing economic implication of a lockdown, right move. The government is facing calls to escalate the measures to deal with the spread of COVID-19, with the case count rising exponentially. Calls for a lockdown to be considered or imposed on the entire country to limit the spread of COVID-19 have come from the Ghana Medical Association (GMA) and the Trades Union Congress (TUC), as well as individual medical experts. The President, following the calls, has instructed the Finance Minister “to work

out the implications of any further measures on the economy and how to put in place economic measures—what people call a stimulus programme—to ensure that these measures don’t adversely hurt the economy and people.” In the coming days, Business24 sources say, Parliament will be briefed on the measures once final decisions have been made. The decision to assess the full impact of the lockdown is fully supported by Business24, given the structure of the Ghanaian economy. The economy is largely

informal with millions of people who live on ‘hand-to-mouth’ basis. A lockdown is likely to exacerbate the economic impact of the virus in Ghana and put many vulnerable people who will lose their livelihoods at risk of starvation or death—unless the government makes available provisions for their sustenance. As noted by Information Minister, Kojo Oppong Nkrumah, “Calling for it is not the difficult part but handling the various scenarios—the millions of Ghanaians who literally live on a hand-to-mouth

basis daily. If you lockdown everything for 14 days, what happens to them? What happens to those who need sanitation, toilet facilities? You need to consider all of those. What are the security dimensions? They are all options being considered.” Business24 supports the idea of a comprehensive assessment of the economic implications of a lockdown, in-as-much-as it is needed to contain the spread of the COVID-19.

Ofori-Atta to unveil GH¢1bn COVID-19 package today BY EUGENE DAVIS Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta is expected to present to Parliament details of government’s GH₵1 billion Coronavirus Alleviation Programme for individuals and small- and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) today. According to Business 24 sources in Parliament, Mr. Ofori-Atta will be in the House on Monday the likeliest to detail who qualifies and also outline the modalities for accessing the fund. President Nana AkufoAddo, in a national address on Friday, announced the billion-cedi package as part of efforts to ease the economic pain of the virus. This follows an earlier move by the Bank of Ghana

to improve the flow of credit and liquidity to households and businesses amid warnings that economic growth could plummet to 2.5 percent due to the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19. “As a responsive government, we will continue to implement bold measures to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus on businesses and households and ensure that job losses are minimised,” President AkufoAddo said. “The Minister for Finance has been directed by me to prepare, for approval by Parliament, a Coronavirus Alleviation Programme to address the disruption in economic activities, the hardship of our people, and to rescue and revitalise our industries. He will, then, immediately make available a

minimum of one billion cedis (GH¢1 billion) to households and businesses, particularly small- and medium-scale enterprises.” Ghana has now joined other sub-Saharan African countries that have, in line with the trend observed in developed countries, employed both monetary and fiscal policy measures to offset the impact of the fast-spreading viral disease on their economies. The package announced by President Akufo-Addo also included an extension of tax payment deadlines for businesses and a six-month moratorium to be offered by banks on principal debt repayments to firms in the hardest-hit industries. In addition, banks are expected to reduce their lending rates by 2 percentage points from

April 1. Two-week lockdown The surge in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases forced the government to announce a partial lockdown of parts of the country, starting from today. “Prevailing circumstances mean that stricter measures have to be put in place to contain and halt the spread of the virus within our country, especially in Accra, Tema, Kasoa and Kumasi, which have been identified by the Ghana Health Service as the ‘hotspots’ of the infections. “Even though it may be said that the number of our infections is still, relatively, low, if we act now purposefully, we have a chance of preventing an escalation of our numbers,” President Akufo-Addo said in his address.

continued from page 1

Editorial Team Dominic Andoh: Editor Eugene Kwabena Davis (Head of Parliamentary Business & Commodities) Benson Afful (Head of Energy & Education) Patrick Paintsil (Head of Maritime & Banking)

days, but I’m afraid our dependable capacity may fail, as in the coming days demand may exceed supply if there is [a] lockdown.” Ghana’s current installed power capacity is 5,082.5 megawatts (MW), of which dependable capacity is 4,613MW. Independent power producers are responsible for 44 percent of dependable capacity, while the state-owned producers (i.e. Volta River Authority and Bui Power Authority) account for 56 percent. The Energy Commission, the sector regulator, pegs peak demand (6pm-10pm) for 2019 at close to 2,700MW,

Marketing Alexander Lartey Agyemang (Business Development Manager) Ruth Fosua Tetteh (Dept. Business Development Manager) Gifty Mensah (Marketing Manager) Irene Mottey (Sales Manager) Edna Eyram Swatson (Special Projects Manager ) Events Evelyn Kanyoke (Snr. Events Consultant) Finance/Administration Joseph Ackon Bissue (Accountant) Ampomah Akoto (Director of Operations)

while off-peak demand is under 2,000MW. With millions of people set to stay at home due to the lockdown, this could boost demand for electricity, especially residential demand in the off-peak hours. This could possibly be offset, though, by a fall in demand from commercial or nonresidential customers in light of the closure of most businesses and institutions in the areas affected by the lockdown. Despite the excess dependable capacity over peak demand, actual availability, according to power producers, rarely exceeds 2,700MW due to inadequate or unreliable fuel supply and transmission system failures.

According to Mr. Apetorgbor, “the greatest limitation to sustainable and reliable operation has to do with consistent and adequate flow of gas for a sustained operation.” While pointing out that gas supply so far is good, with adequate arrangements being made to sustain suppliers’ operation, he called on the government to arrange for sufficient cash flow to power generators to support their operations in these times. Power tariff reduction The chamber also called for a reduction in end-user tariff to help minimise the impact of the lockdown on businesses and households. “I support the call for the Public Utilities Regulatory

Commission (PURC) to consider a downward review of end-user tariffs in this critical season, by taking out the add-on components of the end user tariff that can be done without.” Add-on components such as statutory levies and charges could be rescinded, he suggested, or the government could use the opportunity to negotiate for a reduced gas price to drop the cost of generation. On whether the lockdown will affect their operations, he said: “For us the IPPs, our operators are being locked down at their various duty posts with adequate logistics to be comfortable at post and keep the lights on.”

NEWS

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MONDAY MARCH 30, 2020

Ports to work amid partial lockdown BY PATRICK PAINTSIL Minority Leader in Parliament, Haruna Iddrisu, has maintained that the country will struggle should the current confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) escalate in the coming days. “If coronavirus gets worse in the country, lives would be lost, we do not have the A Ghana’s seaports will remain open during the partial lockdown of the country, but with a scaled-down scope of operations, according to a statement from the Ghana Ports and Harbours Authority (GPHA). “As gateways to Ghana’s international import and export trade in all types of goods including food and medicines, the ports in Ghana, just like ports in other parts of the world, must remain open to ensure the continuous supply of essential commodities,” read the statement signed by its Director-General, Michael Luguje, and copied to Business24. Per the statement, staff and officials of the GPHA, Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) Customs, shipping lines, freight forwarders, and other port users with special need to access the ports will work during the lockdown, but they must be duly recognised or authorised by the GPHA as having business to do within the port community. Other sector players including state regulatory agencies, stevedores, and Inland Container Depot (ICD) workers can go about their usual functions with permit and authorisation from the ports operator.

Vessel- and ship-handling service providers will operate round-the-clock weekly to unload and load cargo for ships arriving and departing, the statement added. The GPHA and shipping lines will also be offering some respite to shippers, as rent and demurrage that may accrue on essential goods during the lockdown period will be waived. Also, for cargo deliveries, a special dispensation has been given for full, unrestricted import clearance of all cargoes currently already received to storage in Tema Port for Ghana and in transit. Cargoes currently already onboard ships on the high seas and coming to be unloaded in Tema for the local market, or in transit to the landlocked countries, will also enjoy similar provisions. To facilitate identification

and permission of persons authorised to access the ports for designated work, GPHA shall issue a special permit codenamed “GPHA-Covid-19 Harbour Permit”, which will serve as proof that the bearer is permitted to leave his/her home to work in the port. The statement further urged strict adherence to all other precautionary protocols that have been put in place to curtail the spread of the coronavirus within the port community. It said: “All other previously circulated protocols remain in force; these include the prohibition of ship’s crew and passengers from disembarking in port, and requirement for all ships arriving to wait at quarantine anchorage to be screened by Port Health Service and cleared before the ship will be brought into port.” President Nana Addo

Dankwa Akufo-Addo last Friday announced a partial lockdown of parts of the country that are deemed to be the epicentres of the novel coronavirus pandemic. The Tema Municipality, which hosts the country’s largest and busiest seaport, was affected by the directive, but per the GPHA statement, work will still go on, albeit in a guided approach. health-wise as a country. The USA with its established health system is struggling, Italy and Spain are also struggling,” he told the media at Parliament House on Friday. The Ghana Health Service report, The Health Sector in Ghana – Facts and Figures 2017, stated that in 2016 there were 1003 clinics, 404 hospitals, 855 health centres, and 3 psychiatric hospitals. In 2016, there were 3,365 doctors, 14,791 community

health nurses, 7,662 midwives, 619 pharmacists, and 13,231 registered general nurses. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the recommended doctorpatient ratio is one doctor to 1,320 patients but in Ghana, the national doctor-to-patient ratio stands at one doctor to about 8,000 patients, a situation that falls short of international best practice. His comments comes after a High Court in Accra dismissed an injunction application seeking to stop the National Identification Authority from continuing with its registration in the Eastern Region. According to the court, the NIA’s decision to go ahead with the registration is not against the President’s directive suspending all public gatherings. “I am disappointed by the court’s ruling, so it means we are prioritizing elections at the peril of Ghanaian lives that can only be disappointing, I least expected that from the courts of Ghana, but once it is a court ruling it means every Ghanaian will decide to continue with his or her normal lives that will not be good for the country,” Mr. Iddrisu said. As at Friday, March 27, there were 137 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Ghana. It is estimated that 97% of all confirmed cases are travelers who brought the disease from outside the country. Two persons have made full recoveries while Four (4) persons, who had tested positive for the virus, but were aged and had other serious, underlying medical conditions, have lost their lives.

US$100m COVID-19 cash to part-finance NADMO for fumigation exercise – MP suggests Deputy Chairman of the Defence and Interior Committee of Parliament, Collins Owusu Amankwah, has urged the need for the National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO) to lead the ongoing nationwide fumigation exercise of markets. Speaking to journalists in Parliament House, he explained that portions of the US$ 100 million voted by President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo to combat the COVID-19 pandemic should be made available to the disaster management body for its activities. As part of national efforts to prevent the spread of the coronavirus in Ghana, Government through the Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development,

Manhyia North MP, Collins Owusu Amankwah

last Monday deployed about 1,300 sprayers to disinfect 137 markets in 28 Metropolitan and Municipal Assemblies in the Greater Accra Region.

The exercise which was extended to the Ashanti Region Friday is expected to cover the whole nation. According to the Manhyia

North Member of Parliament, NADMO which has the technical capability in disaster management must, be integrated into the national

action as the lead focal institution with the fumigation exercise to enable it execute its public function to the citizenry. The Nation, he said, is at war with COVID 19 hence the urgent need for the ongoing fumigation exercise to be extended to all corners of the country but not markets alone. Mr. Owusu Amankwah, who described the outbreak as a security threat, urged all the security agencies in the country to effective collaborate to curb the potential security impacts of COVID 19 on the nation. He also encouraged all citizens to abide by the Presidents directives such as hand-washing with soap and water and social distancing in order to stay safe.

MONDAY MARCH 30, 2020

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NEWS

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MONDAY MARCH 30, 2020

Residents of Larteh Akuapem briefed On LV Bifurcation Project To raise awareness and deepen Community knowledge of the objectives behind the Low Voltage Bifurcation (LVB) Project, currently being implemented in the Akuapem North Municipality, a Team drawn from the Millennium Development Authority (MiDA), Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) and Power Factor (GH) Ltd, the Works Contractor for the Project, has engaged with a cross-section of residents and Community Leaders at a Townhall Meeting in the Larteh Akuapem Township. The meeting, organised by Colan Consult, one of the four (4) Community Engagement and Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) Consultants for MiDA, discussed the Project’s benefits, expected impacts on their assets and livelihoods, measures put in place by the project to manage the impacts and threw light on any other issues that may concern Project Affected Persons (PAPs). Community Leaders and ECG’s customers had pertinent questions answered during the meeting.

Representatives of a Grievance Redress Committee (GRC) set up by the project to manage grievances that may emanate from the Project, were out-doored to the gathering. The LV Bifurcation Project being implemented by MiDA in seven Districts of ECG’s Southern Distribution Area, will directly benefit an estimated 560,000 Customers, living in 53 towns and communities. The beneficiary ECG Districts are Kaneshie, Dansoman, Achimota, Mampong Akuapem, Roman Ridge, Kwabenya and Legon. Frequent power outages, resulting from the inability of existing transformers to carry loads from increasing electricity demand in these areas, distribution losses and poor quality lighting, are some of the challenges being addressed through the Project. The Chief Executive Officer of MiDA, Martin Eson-Benjamin, explained that the Project was being carried out in collaboration with the major beneficiary, ECG. “We are installing 24

higher capacity transformers in Larteh and Akropong to improve the quality of electricity in these two towns and ensure Customer satisfaction.” he said. He also explained that the Project was being implemented in needy Communities selected by ECG, adding that “the use of Compact funds will enable ECG to invest its own resources for planned service upgrades in other Communities. He called for cooperation

and forbearance from the Communities, as the implementation of the Projects will be accompanied occasionally, by planned outages. He added that the interventions under the MCC-funded Compact Program are necessary and the beneficiary Communities are implored to accept the challenges that the occasional outages, to be carefully supervised by ECG, may bring. Every effort will be made to advise and inform the affected Communities well

ahead of any planned outages. Ing. Mark Wilson, the Mampong Akuapem District Manager of ECG, expressed ECG’s appreciation for MiDA’s intervention in the fast-growing Larteh Township and reiterated the need for the Community’s support and collaboration during the implementation of the much-needed LVB Project. He was particularly thankful to the Chiefs, the Elders and customers in Larteh for the excellent support and cooperation they have given to the Utility Company during the many years of power supply to the Larteh Township. The LV Bifurcation Project is one of the four Sub-Project Activities that make up the ECG Financial and Operational Turnaround (EFOT) Project and is being funded by the US Government’s the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), through the US$308 million Ghana Power Compact Program. The LV Bifurcation Project Activities in all the selected ECG Districts are expected to be completed by August 2020.

Health system can’t support high COVID-19 cases – Haruna Iddrisu BY EUGENE DAVIS Minority Leader in Parliament, Haruna Iddrisu, has maintained that the country will struggle should the current confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) escalate in the coming days. “If coronavirus gets worse in the country, lives would be lost, we do not have the capacity health-wise as a country. The USA with its established health system is struggling, Italy and Spain are also struggling,” he told the media at Parliament House on Friday. The Ghana Health Service report, The Health Sector in Ghana – Facts and Figures 2017, stated that in 2016 there were 1003 clinics, 404 hospitals, 855 health centres, and 3 psychiatric hospitals. In 2016, there were 3,365 doctors, 14,791 community health nurses, 7,662 midwives, 619 pharmacists, and 13,231 registered general nurses. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the recommended doctorpatient ratio is one doctor to

Minority Leader in Parliament – Haruna Iddrisu

1,320 patients but in Ghana, the national doctor-to-patient ratio stands at one doctor to about 8,000 patients, a

situation that falls short of international best practice. His comments comes after a High Court in Accra dismissed

an injunction application seeking to stop the National Identification Authority from continuing with its registration

in the Eastern Region. According to the court, the NIA’s decision to go ahead with the registration is not against the President’s directive suspending all public gatherings. “I am disappointed by the court’s ruling, so it means we are prioritizing elections at the peril of Ghanaian lives that can only be disappointing, I least expected that from the courts of Ghana, but once it is a court ruling it means every Ghanaian will decide to continue with his or her normal lives that will not be good for the country,” Mr. Iddrisu said. As at Friday, March 27, there were 137 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Ghana. It is estimated that 97% of all confirmed cases are travelers who brought the disease from outside the country. Two persons have made full recoveries while Four (4) persons, who had tested positive for the virus, but were aged and had other serious, underlying medical conditions, have lost their lives.

NEWS

MONDAY MARCH 30, 2020

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Shipping lines move business Coronavirus fight: GIPC supports Korle-Bu, Ghana online amid Covid-19 scare Health Service

The Ghana Investment Promotion Centre (GIPC) in support of the country’s fight against the deadly COVID-19 Pandemic, has donated over 3,000 Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs) to the Healthcare sector. The items, comprising of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) overalls, gloves, goggles and cardinal health equipment were presented to the Ghana Health Service (GHS) and the Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital on Friday March 27, 2020. Receiving the donation on behalf of the Ghana Health Service, the Director General – Dr Patrick Kuma Aboagye, expressed his appreciation to the Centre stating “The Health Sector is stretched, and will be stretched if we don’t do well now”. He encouraged corporate Ghana to assist as regular cases were still being managed by sector workers in addition to COVID-19 cases. The GIPC’s donated items to GHS will be shared among various medical facilities assigned to deal with the pandemic in Ghana. Sinotruck, a Chinese heavy truck assembly plant in Ghana, through the GIPC, also donated an amount of GHC 50,000 to the Ghana Health Service. The contribution was announced by the Chief Executive Officer of the GIPC, Mr. Yofi Grant during the Cen-

tre’s donation. He said: “This is just a token of our support to the Ghana Health Service and all those who are on the frontline in this battle against the COVID-19 virus. We know that these items are in huge demand as they are not manufactured in the country. Any resource we can use to make these available to ensure the safety of lives to support the efforts of our health sector workers, we will do. We believe that it’s our responsibility and hope that many others will rally to the call and support this fight.” The GIPC continues to adhere to the Presidential Directives on COVID-19 and assures the public of their safety when dealing with them through protocols in place at the Centre. All GIPC applications and accompanying payments will continue to be made and received at the front desk of our offices in Accra, Kumasi, Tamale and Takoradi. The Center has adjusted working arrangements for its staff and is currently operating a shift system to ensure safety and wellbeing of its workers. Enquires and meetings may be made by telephone or prearranged video conference. The Centre remains committed to serving its clients and encourages the general public to observe all precautionary measures issued by the Government.

Executive Secretary of SOAAG, Perpetua Osei-Bonsu

BY PATRICK PAINTSIL Shipping lines and their agents operating in the country have moved their business activities online, as part measures to reduce physical presence of customers in their offices, and in line with government’s safety directives in the wake of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In a statement issued by its umbrella body, the Shipowners and Agents Association of Ghana (SOAAG), signed by its Executive Secretary, Perpetua Osei-Bonsu, the association indicated that the decision was in the interest of the wellbeing of both customers and staff of its member companies. The action, according to the association, was also in support of measures outlined by the government to prevent the outspread of the disease [Covid-19] in the country.

“We wish to stress on the need for customers to do away with physical presence at our offices and encourage them to use members’ online/e-platforms,” the statement copied to Business24 stated. It added that: “Customers are being entreated to make use of online banking platforms to effect their payments…, we entreat the cooperation of all to ensure our safety during these difficult times.” The statement also announced plans of the shipping lines to reduce the number of staff reporting to work within the period of the pandemic whilst assuring that utmost precautionary measures will be in place for persons that may have to be in the offices to work. “Furthermore, safety measures have been put in place to ensure that customers who need to call at our offices have access to the essential basics for their protection,” the statement further stated.

Sustaining business in the midst of covid-19 A few questions to help business and institutional leaders in Ghana initiate diagnostic assessments of the readiness of their organisations to navigate the Corona virus crisis and contain the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. We recommend the following key areas for your review. Organisational Results •

• •

Assess the impact on your 2020 plans so far, the rest of 2020 in your estimation the liquidity of the organisation What risks (internal and external) do you have to manage? How do you plan to mitigate any negative effects on the rest of your 2020 results?

•

What opportunities can you identify to help you mitigate risks and how can you exploit them?

Organisational Model •

• •

Will your operating model remain relevant should this crisis continue over an extended period? What technological options can you leverage to remain relevant? Explore the options and implications of remote working for your people and your clients?

External Communication •

What updates do you have for key clients, and walk-in/retail clients?

•

What updates are you seeking from your corporate clients?

Internal Communication •

•

Designate a single point of responsibility to receive and share information during the crisis. Focus on official facts. Avoid hype, or speculation from unofficial sources.

Contact Ishmael Yamson & Associates on 0244781819, 0202018141, or info@ieyamson.com for support to conduct your diagnostic. Commercial Partners •

Who is speaking with your banks about any

•

potential pressure on your operations and your ability to honour any obligations? Similarly if you have any major suppliers who are the key interface to deal with possible negative effects in a proactive manner?

People •

•

How are we going to keep your people safe if they must come into work? How do you sustain the confidence of your employees in the plans of the organisation to weather the crisis?

Governance • Consider regular physical or electronic meetings of the Executive Leadership to update itself. • Keep your Board updated on the evolving issues. • Put in place visible hygiene protocols to generate confidence at the workplace. Contact Ishmael Yamson & Associates on 0244781819, 0202018141, or info@ieyamson. com for support to conduct your diagnostic

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F E AT U R E

MONDAY MARCH 30, 2020

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NECESSITY BRINGS INNOVATION:

ICT can help to overcome Coronavirus challenges and grab the opportunity to innovate

BY DIANA VAN DER STELT

It is a sad reality that some of the biggest innovations come from periods of war, where governments, armies or people in need were forced to push hard to find solutions to very pressing problems. For instance, the Second World War is said to be a big source of new inventions like penicillin, programmable computers and mass radio just to mention a few. In the same way, the current pandemic is challenging us. As a businessperson, you may have concerns on the continuity of your company while many public lives have stopped and business is slowing down to avoid the spread of the virus. This is a good moment to look at the opportunities to make the best out of this situation Technology can help to continue your business remotely. In the last two weeks, multiple companies have asked their personnel to work from home. For some, this has been challenging not all of their staff know how to do that. Moreover, a big concern: how do you know that they are actually working? Go digital and online with your staff – quick wins Move your files and documents to the cloud and authorize the right people to use them. You will probably be able to quickly install a free

tool like Dropbox or Google Drive to share documents with particular people, so they can work on these documents together remotely. Equip your personnel with laptops and an internet connection to work from home or reimburse them for the costs that they incur with their private equipment and data bundles. Use video-conferencing for meetings: here too, there are various tools that can be used for free as a quick win, like SKYPE, Google Hangouts or Microsoft Teams. Note that some of these services have been overcrowded lately, but still work quite well. Introduce an agile way of working: the scope of this article does not allow us to explain in depth how SCRUM or other agile project management methods work, but some key elements can help you to keep track of what your staff is doing while they are not in the office, such as the use of a joint planning board (www.trello.com) to track people’s tasks; short daily standup meetings to get clear what everyone is going to do during the day; and weekly online demos. Project management applications like SLACK or ASANA can also help to manage your remote teams. Next steps of digital transformation Your current sales, customer contacts, and supplies may be

affected badly by the current situation as it has become difficult to have personal physical contact and have meetings. The current crisis may tempt you to speed up some good practice in digital innovations. Service your business processes with SAAS (online software as a service) IT solutions: for most common administrative processes such as financial accounting, human resource management and inventory, there are affordable or even free software applications available online. For example, www.wave.com is a financial accounting application that can be used for most small and medium sized enterprises, and even takes care of sending out invoices automatically for you with email. www. hubspot.com can also assist your sales team professionally online. Both tools have a free version too. Some of the business processes unique for your company may require a simple web-application tailor made for you. Step into digital marketing: while your target audience is staying at home, they may still be listening to the radio or watch television. However, this may be the right time to replace your billboard, posters and flyers by a good social media presence. A good digital marketing strategy takes time, but a good Facebook or Instagram page

for your product or service is indispensable and you can start that today. E-commerce and homedelivery are a good alternative for your real life shop and can reach many more customers. It is actually not too expensive to get a simple website and a web shop running to showcase and sell your products online. Currently in Europe and the US, companies who are into home delivery are getting massive turnovers while ordinary shops and restaurants have to close their doors to the public. Do not waste your time but equip yourself While you are facing down time in your business activities or suddenly have a lot of extra spare time at home, you can grab the opportunity to update your digital skills and be prepared for digital transformation on a personal level. There are multiple courses online that you can use to enhance your skills, either by watching YouTube instruction videos, or getting free or very affordable courses via Udemy, Coursera or EdX where the best universities of the world allow you to follow their classes for free. Beware of “wardriving” and phishing While many people work from home, new risks emerge too. Cyber criminals are driving around to look for vulnerable Wi-Fi networks to

hack. Virtual private networks (also known as VPNs), provide all staff who work from home with online protection by creating a secure connection with another network such as the office network and then encrypts traffic between those two points. So getting a reliable VPN service for your company is very important. Of course, VPN credentials can also be stolen, for example when your employees fall for phishing attacks. Multi-factor authentication (MFA) can help prevent these VPN accounts from unauthorized attacks.

Author: Diana van der Stelt, Sales Director at Trinity Software Center, Kumasi and director at Maxim Nyansa IT Solutions Foundation in Tantra Hills, Accra, a training center for ICT professionals. Member, Institute of ICT Professionals, Ghana. For comments, contact (www.trinitysoftwarecenter.com; dianavanderstelt@trinitysoftwarecenter.com)

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E N E R GY

MONDAY MARCH 30, 2020

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Vivo Energy Supports Lorry Parks on COVID-19 Prevention As a contribution to the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, Vivo Energy Ghana, the distributers and marketers of Shell branded products and services has donated boxes of hand sanitizers and liquid soaps to some lorry parks to ensure basic hygiene is observed in the discharge of their duties. In addition, the company has equipped its Shell service stations with hand sanitizers and other cleaning solutions as a precautionary measure against the virus. Customer Service Champions have also been engaged to wash their hands regularly and sanitize them as often as possible when transacting business with customers and on the Point of Sale devices. In an interview, the Managing Director of Vivo Energy Ghana, Mr. Ben Hassan Ouattara reiterated the company’s robust Health, Safety, Security and Environment (HSSE) procedures, especially at the forecourt to ensure the safety of customers.

“As we continue to follow the President’s directives, we need to maintain basic personal hygiene to minimize the spread of COVID-19. As a company that believes in safety, we owe it a duty to the citizenry to support them in this difficult time. At Shell, your safety is our priority and we will continue to observe all the safety protocols prescribed by the Ghana Health Service at our Shell service stations,” he said. He further reminded everyone to follow the safety measures, particularly regular and thorough hands washing, social distancing, and respiratory hygiene among others to keep everyone safe from contracting the virus. At the 37 Lorry park, the Vice Chairman of the GPRTU 37 Branch, Mr. Richard Mensah who received the items expressed his appreciation to the management and staff of Vivo Energy Ghana for supporting them with the hand sanitizers and liquid soaps to keep them safe from

the CODVID-19 pandemic, noting that their work exposes them more to the virus. “I wish on behalf of my colleagues, thank Vivo Energy Ghana for these items. We need them at this critical time

and you will all agree with me that our work exposes us more to the virus because our work involves people. I am very happy that these items will help us protect ourselves and passengers against the

virus,” he said. Mr. Commodore Mensah, who received the items on behalf of Shell retailers, also commended the timely intervention by Vivo Energy Ghana.

World’s Wind Power Capacity Increases Nearly 20% in Record Growth The growing demand for renewable energy led to record setting growth in windpower capacity as technology has made harnessing wind power increasingly efficient and more wind farms have been completed and have joined the electrical grid, according to The Telegraph. The Global Wind Energy Council reported that in 2019 wind power capacity grew by 60.4 gigawats, which was 19 percent more than 2018. The report credited growth in offshore wind, which made up one-tenth of new wind farm installations for the first time. As for onshore wind power, the report noted that the U.S. and China were the world’s largest markets for wind power development. The two resource intensive countries while producing an outsized amount of greenhouse gasses also make up nearly two-thirds of the world’s growth in wind power, according to The Guardian. India, Spain and the UK rounded out the top five. The Global Wind Energy Council had expected this year to set more records with a forecast of 20 percent growth in the year ahead, but it cautioned that it may not come to fruition due to the novel coronavirus global pandemic. The importance of maintaining physical distance around the world could slow the construction of energy projects as part of a slowdown in infrastructure development.

However, the council urged governments around the world to use an investment in renewable energy to spur economic recovery, according to The Guardian. Ben Backwell, CEO at the Global Wind Energy Council, said wind energy was continuing to enjoy consistent growth as a result of having “unequivocally established itself

as a cost-competitive energy source worldwide,” as Business Green reported. “Established market players such as China and the US accounted for nearly 60 per cent of new installations, however, we see emerging markets in regions such as South East Asia, Latin America and Africa playing an increasingly important role in the years

to come, while offshore wind is also becoming a significant growth driver,” he added. Recently, the head of the International Energy Agency, Dr. Fatih Birol, warned that the world would lose momentum in its transition to clean energy sources unless governments around the world use renewable energy infrastructure as a means to galvanize

a workforce and grow global economies, according to The Guardian. “We have an important window of opportunity,” said Birol. “Major economies around the world are preparing stimulus packages. A well-designed stimulus package could offer economic benefits and facilitate a turnover of energy capital which have huge benefits for the clean energy transition.” Despite the growth, Blackwell noted that the world needs an overwhelming investment and commitment to a rapid and dramatic shift to renewable sources of energy in order to keep global heating under 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. “We are still not where we need to be when it comes to the global energy transition and meeting our climate goals,” he said, as Business Green reported. “If we are to have any chance at reaching our Paris Agreement objectives and remaining on a 1.5C pathway, we need to be installing at least 100GW of wind energy annually over the next decade, and this needs to rise to 200GW annually post-2030 and beyond. This will mean stronger measures to push incumbent fossil fuels off the grid and a shake-up of administrative structures and regulation to ensure we can go out and build.” (Ecowatch)

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Emirates ground crews give an emotional send-off to last flights Emirates ground crews around the world have bid farewell to their last operating flights back to Dubai. EK 005 to London Heathrow, which departed at 1605hrs on 24 March was the last flight to take off from Dubai. EK 262 from Sao Paulo, which landed at 2235hrs (local time) was the last flight to arrive on 25 March into Dubai. Emirates’ outstation airport teams from 39 stations including Prague, Newark, Seoul, London Stansted and Zurich devotedly sent off their last passenger flights before the suspension took effect. Over the next weeks Emirates’ operational teams will focus on

preparing for service resumption. As per UAE government directives to protect communities against the spread of COVID-19, Emirates has temporarily suspended all passenger flights from 25 March 2020. The airline will resume passenger services as soon as it is possible to do so. In the meantime, Emirates is still busy deploying its fleet of Boeing 777 freighters, bolstering international air cargo links for the transport of vital goods, including medical supplies and food, around the world.

Ethiopian Extends Solidarity to Africans, Delivers Emergency Medical Supplies

Ethiopian Airlines, the Pan-African carrier, has delivered medical supplies donated by Jack Ma, the founder of China’s e-commerce giant Alibaba, to 39 African Countries within 5 days. Ethiopian has transported Jack Ma’s support including testing kits, masks and protective suits. Following its historical track record of serving Africa in both good and bad times, Ethiopian has once again demonstrated a great gesture of solidarity to the African people. Launched by Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Dr. Abiy Ahmed and Alibaba Foundation, the relief initiative is part of the actions taken towards implementing Africa’s continental strategy for preventing the spread of COVID-19. Regarding the delivery of medical supplies, Mr. Tewolde GebreMariam, Ethiopian Airlines

Group CEO, remarked: “We would like to thank our Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed and Mr. Jack Ma for giving us the opportunity to serve the people of Africa in this globally challenging time. With a guidance of our Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed and donation of Mr. Jack Ma as well as collaboration of our partners, we are happy to announce that we have delivered the COVID-19 test kits, protective masks and other necessary medical supplies to 39 African countries in the last 5 days. In most of these African airports, Ethiopian Cargo airplanes are the only ones delivering these life-saving emergency medical supplies.’’ The delivery has so far exceeded the half way mark with more distribution plans to be continued in the coming days.

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Africa’s race against COVID-19 KEVIN WATKINS There are now worrying signs that the COVID-19 virus has taken root in SubSaharan Africa, the world’s poorest region. The window of opportunity to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe is still ajar, but keeping it open will take decisive national action and international cooperation. Until recently, the low number of reported cases in Africa was fueling complacency. Perhaps higher temperature was limiting COVID-19 transmission rates. In a region with more children (who are less susceptible) and fewer elderly people than elsewhere, some experts conjectured that demography was offering some protection as well. But the time for complacency is over. The Director General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, former health minister of Ethiopia, has urged Africa to wake up to the COVID-19 threat. Governments and aid donors are now preparing for the worst, belatedly responding to a coronavirus trajectory bearing the hallmarks of Europe’s experience: a small initial caseload that then grows exponentially. Sub-Saharan Africa currently has 1,305 confirmed cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus – less than 1% of the world total. Just 11 countries have more than 20 confirmed cases. Europe alone reported over 4,000 new cases in the 24 hours before I wrote this commentary. But these headline figures obscure the scale of the pandemic threat. With few countries equipped to test for COVID-19, reported cases may represent the tip of an iceberg – and the numbers are growing fast. While most early cases were “imported” by visitors arriving from Europe, several countries – including South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, Liberia and the Democratic Republic of Congo – are now reporting community transmission. Many African governments are now acting with greater resolve than some European governments. Countries like Senegal and Nigeria are testing and tracking cases. Airports are being closed either fully, or to visitors from countries with high numbers of reported cases. Public gatherings and funerals have been prohibited in Ghana. Schools have been closed in several countries. Social distancing is being encouraged. But Africa’s governments and communities cannot contain this pandemic alone. Even with multi-billiondollar cash injections, some

of the world’s strongest health systems are buckling under the coronavirus strain. With roughly one-third of hospitalized patients requiring intensive care, COVID-19 is overwhelming hospitals, health workers, and medical infrastructure, especially supplies of personal protective equipment and medical oxygen. Witness the crisis in Italy’s Lombardy region and the United Kingdom’s National Health Service. If prevention and containment fail and COVID-19 spreads, Africa’s health systems will be unable to withstand the burden. Chronic underinvestment and a deficit of more than three million health workers has left countries unable to meet even the most basic healthcare needs, let alone respond to COVID-19. No region is further from universal health coverage. Half the population has no access to modern health services. Public health spending averages just $16 per person – far short of the $86 per person needed to finance basic health provision. There are just seven hospital beds and one doctor for every 10,000 people (Italy has over 34 beds and 40 doctors). Consider medical oxygen, a vital part of the treatment regime for COVID-19 patients suffering from the acute respiratory distress accompanying viral pneumonia. It is sometimes forgotten that Africa already

has a pneumonia epidemic that kills over 400,000 children each year. As the Australian pediatric consultant Hamish Graham has shown, many of these deaths could be averted through antibiotics and medical oxygen. The problem is that medical oxygen is seldom available. While health systems are on the front line of the fight against COVID-19, the pandemic poses far wider threats. Weak demand in China has already hit commodity prices. Recession in Europe and falling oil prices will hurt the region’s major economies. African growth forecasts are being revised downward, with potentially devastating consequences for poverty. Millions of children’s education will be disrupted as schools close. The most disadvantaged could be forced by poverty into labor markets or, in the case of adolescent girls, early marriage. In contrast to the situation in 2008, public debt and limited access to international credit markets constrain governments’ ability to increase spending on safety nets, health, and economic infrastructure. That backdrop, added to the sheer scale of the coronavirus threat, makes international cooperation more critical than ever. Unfortunately, responses to date have been half-hearted. To its credit, the World Bank has put in place a package of fast-track financing that

will help strengthen health systems. But the money is flowing too slowly. It is now urgent that the Bank’s finance is converted into publichealth preparedness for the diagnosis, treatment, and containment of COVID-19. Real preparedness will require ruthless prioritization. Apart from early promotion of social distancing, countries in East Asia that have contained the pandemic more successfully have used largescale testing to isolate carriers, trace contacts, and break chains of transmission. Africa must follow that example. Without more testing, an outbreak could go undetected until it’s too late. That’s why the effort by the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development and the government of Senegal to develop a rapid diagnostic test is so important. The next few weeks are critical. Working with African health ministries, the WHO is well placed to support the development of frontline plans for COVID-19 containment, including the finances needed for testing and diagnostic equipment, medical supplies, and protective clothing. There is a ready-made vehicle for supporting these plans. Yet donors have still failed to fund fully the WHO’s $675 million emergency appeal launched in January. Fiscal support is the second line of defense. Africa urgently needs commitments from the

International Monetary Fund to inject liquidity. Current emergency credit lines – around $10 billion for all lowincome countries – are just too small. Apart from providing a fiscal helicopter, both the IMF and the World Bank should be working together to support the health, education, and safety-net investment that will be so critical to recovery. Africa may seem a remote concern for policymakers in the rich world. But if there is one thing coronavirus has taught us, it is that pandemic viral threats don’t respect borders. This is not a disease that can be beaten in our own backyards. It must be beaten globally, or it will not be beaten at all. And now we must beat it in Africa.

Kevin Watkins Kevin Watkins is the CEO of Save the Children UK. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020. www.project-syndicate. org

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A pandemic is no time for us economic sanctions BY JEFFREY D. SACHS AND FRANCISCO RODRÍGUEZ Over the past several years, US President Donald Trump’s administration has unilaterally imposed harsh economic sanctions on several countries whose governments it seeks to punish. These measures are inhumane, violate international law, and cause pain and suffering among the people that the United States claims it wants to help. With the whole world now facing the COVID-19 pandemic, US sanctions have also become a direct threat to the survival of people inside those countries – and everyone else. They should be immediately lifted. It is no coincidence that Iran and Venezuela, two countries targeted by the US, are both being hit hard by the pandemic. Iran accounts for just 1.1% of the world’s population but an astounding 11.2% of COVID-19 deaths, while Venezuela appears to be on the verge of a massive outbreak, judging from the rapid spread of the disease since the first diagnosis in that country 12 days ago. American sanctions have weakened both countries’ health infrastructure by curtailing access to foreign exchange and the capacity to import key medical inputs. In Venezuela, studies show that financial and oil-sector sanctions have cost the Venezuelan economy at least $17 billion a year since 2017, or more than four times the country’s level of non-oil imports. While sanctions are far from the only cause of the economy’s collapse, they were the driving factor behind the massive contraction in 2019, during which Venezuela lost onethird of its GDP. As UN Human Rights Chief Michelle Bachelet warned last August, the sanctions “are extremely broad and fail to contain sufficient measures to mitigate their impact on the most vulnerable sectors of the population,” with “far-reaching implications on the rights to health and to food in particular.” Sanctions have had a dramatic effect on Iran’s economy as well. Oil production plummeted by 1.8 million barrels per day, to almost half the pre-sanctions level, after the Trump administration withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal. Last October, Human Rights Watch reported that US economic sanctions were “causing unnecessary suffering to Iranian citizens,” and that the consequences for patients with rare diseases could be “catastrophic.” Iran now has the second-highest rate of mortality from COVID-19, second only to Italy. Economic sanctions are pre-

mised on the idea that increasing ordinary people’s daily hardship will place growing pressure on their government. As US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo put it in February 2019, owing to the resumption of sanctions, “things are much worse for the Iranian people, and we are convinced that will lead the Iranian people to rise up and change the behavior of the regime.” Rather than suspending economic sanctions during the pandemic, the Trump administration has actually tightened them, making it even harder for affected countries to access foreign exchange and exacerbating the effect of the global collapse in oil prices. Just this past week, as Iran’s death toll reached one thousand, the US Treasury Department blacklisted nine companies, including a social security investment arm, for dealing with the country’s petrochemical sector. On March 12, the US sanctioned a Russian company for helping sell Venezuela’s oil abroad, while pressuring companies in India, China, and Spain to halt all purchases from Venezuela. As a result of sanctions, the few traders still willing to buy Venezuelan oil are demanding discounts of up to $23 per barrel, forcing the country to sell below its production cost and erasing its only major source

of revenue. The US authorities disingenuously argue that the sanctions carve out exceptions for transactions related to humanitarian goods. Those who deal with Iran know that this is false. It’s like telling someone who has just lost their job and income that they can still go to a store and buy whatever they want. Moreover, economic sanctions not only reduce the targeted country’s capacity to pay for essential inputs; they also dramatically increase the regulatory and reputational risk of doing any business whatsoever with that government. Almost all private-sector firms thus decide not to take the gamble – or to charge high fees for doing so. Furthermore, it is nearly impossible to achieve compliance with the quarantines and social-distancing measures recommended by public health experts to stem the COVID-19 unless governments can compensate workers who stay at home. Countries whose public finances are battered by sanctions have little ability to fund these subsidies. For this reason, both Iran and Venezuela have asked the International Monetary Fund for emergency disbursements to help deal with the pandemic. The IMF has so far responded to Venezuela’s request by saying that it cannot be considered

until its members agree on which of the country’s dueling political factions is recognized as the legitimate government. This is a direct consequence of the egregious US decision last year to break with diplomatic tradition by recognizing a government that has no control over its territory and calling on others to follow suit. Economic sanctions don’t just harm people in the sanctioned countries. They raise the risk that these countries will become regional COVID-19 epicenters, making any efforts by neighboring countries to stem the tide self-defeating. Containment efforts must be global, and at-risk countries must be able to count on all necessary international assistance. Sanctions by the government of the world’s largest economy make this impossible. The US should immediately suspend all economic sanctions on countries that are struggling to deal with the disease. The Treasury Department should also issue guidelines that indicate that any dealings with personally sanctioned government officials are admissible when restricted to their official functions. The US should also stop blocking efforts by affected countries to obtain multilateral financing to deal with the emergency. US economic sanctions have

caused millions of people to suffer, and soon they could kill tens of thousands, if not far more. Exacerbating civilians’ suffering to try to change their government’s conduct is ethically wrong and prohibited by international law. Pursuing this strategy during the worst health crisis the world has faced in modern times demonstrates reckless disregard for human life and contempt for the norms of civilized behavior.

JEFFREY D. SACHS

Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, Francisco Rodríguez is Director of Columbia’s Center for Sustainable Development and the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. Francisco Rodríguez is an economist and Director of the Oil for Venezuela Foundation. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020. www.project-syndicate.org

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A Greater Depression? BY NOURIEL ROUBINI The shock to the global economy from COVID-19 has been both faster and more severe than the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and even the Great Depression. In those two previous episodes, stock markets collapsed by 50% or more, credit markets froze up, massive bankruptcies followed, unemployment rates soared above 10%, and GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 10% or more. But all of this took around three years to play out. In the current crisis, similarly dire macroeconomic and financial outcomes have materialized in three weeks. Earlier this month, it took just 15 days for the US stock market to plummet into bear territory (a 20% decline from its peak) – the fastest such decline ever. Now, markets are down 35%, credit markets have seized up, and credit spreads (like those for junk bonds) have spiked to 2008 levels. Even mainstream financial firms such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley expect US GDP to fall by an annualized rate of 6% in the first quarter, and by 24% to 30% in the second. US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has warned that the unemployment rate could skyrocket to above 20% (twice the peak level during the GFC). In other words, every component of aggregate demand – consumption, capital spending, exports – is in unprecedented free fall. While most self-serving commentators have been anticipating a V-shaped downturn – with output falling sharply for one quarter and then rapidly recovering the next – it should now be clear that the COVID-19 crisis is something else entirely. The contraction that is now underway looks to be neither V- nor U- nor L-shaped (a sharp downturn followed by stagnation). Rather, it looks like an I: a vertical line representing financial markets and the real economy plummeting. Not even during the Great Depression and World War II did the bulk of economic activity literally shut down, as it has in China, the United States, and Europe today. The best-case scenario would be a downturn that is more severe than the GFC (in terms of reduced cumulative global output) but shorter-lived, allowing for a return to positive growth by the fourth quarter of this year. In that case, markets would start to recover when the light at the end of the tunnel appears. But the best-case scenario assumes several conditions. First, the US, Europe, and other heavily affected economies would need to roll out widespread COVID-19 testing, tracing, and treatment mea-

sures, enforced quarantines, and a full-scale lockdown of the type that China has implemented. And, because it could take 18 months for a vaccine to be developed and produced at scale, antivirals and other therapeutics will need to be deployed on a massive scale. Second, monetary policymakers – who have already done in less than a month what took them three years to do after the GFC – must continue to throw the kitchen sink of unconventional measures at the crisis. That means zero or negative interest rates; enhanced forward guidance; quantitative easing; and credit easing (the purchase of private assets) to backstop banks, non-banks, money market funds, and even large corporations (commercial paper and corporate bond facilities). The US Federal Reserve has expanded its cross-border swap lines to address the massive dollar liquidity shortage in global markets, but we now need more facilities to encourage banks to lend to illiquid but still-solvent small and medium-size enterprises. Third, governments need to deploy massive fiscal stimulus, including through “helicopter drops” of direct cash disbursements to households. Given the size of the economic shock, fiscal deficits in advanced economies will need to increase from 2-3% of GDP to around 10% or more. Only

central governments have balance sheets large and strong enough to prevent the private sector’s collapse. But these deficit-financed interventions must be fully monetized. If they are financed through standard government debt, interest rates would rise sharply, and the recovery would be smothered in its cradle. Given the circumstances, interventions long proposed by leftists of the Modern Monetary Theory school, including helicopter drops, have become mainstream. Unfortunately for the bestcase scenario, the public-health response in advanced economies has fallen far short of what is needed to contain the pandemic, and the fiscal-policy package currently being debated is neither large nor rapid enough to create the conditions for a timely recovery. As such, the risk of a new Great Depression, worse than the original – a Greater Depression – is rising by the day. Unless the pandemic is stopped, economies and markets around the world will continue their free fall. But even if the pandemic is more or less contained, overall growth still might not return by the end of 2020. After all, by then, another virus season is very likely to start with new mutations; therapeutic interventions that many are counting on may turn out to be less effective than hoped. So,

economies will contract again and markets will crash again. Moreover, the fiscal response could hit a wall if the monetization of massive deficits starts to produce high inflation, especially if a series of virus-related negative supply shocks reduces potential growth. And many countries simply cannot undertake such borrowing in their own currency. Who will bail out governments, corporations, banks, and households in emerging markets? In any case, even if the pandemic and the economic fallout were brought under control, the global economy could still be subject to a number of “white swan” tail risks. With the US presidential election approaching, the COVID-19 crisis will give way to renewed conflicts between the West and at least four revisionist powers: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, all of which are already using asymmetric cyberwarfare to undermine the US from within. The inevitable cyber attacks on the US election process may lead to a contested final result, with charges of “rigging” and the possibility of outright violence and civil disorder. Similarly, as I have argued previously, markets are vastly underestimating the risk of a war between the US and Iran this year; the deterioration of Sino-American relations is accelerating as each side blames the other for the scale of the

COVID-19 pandemic. The current crisis is likely to accelerate the ongoing balkanization and unraveling of the global economy in the months and years ahead. This trifecta of risks – uncontained pandemics, insufficient economic-policy arsenals, and geopolitical white swans – will be enough to tip the global economy into persistent depression and a runaway financial-market meltdown. After the 2008 crash, a forceful (though delayed) response pulled the global economy back from the abyss. We may not be so lucky this time.

Nouriel Roubini is CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business, NYU. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020. www.project-syndicate.org

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How africa’s economies can hedge against covid-19

BY IBRAHIM ASSANE MAYAKI In 2018, 44 countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Area at an extraordinary summit in Kigali. There are now 54 signatories. The agreement will create a tariff-free economic environment to spur business growth, boost intra-continental trade, spark industrialization, and create jobs. To mitigate the economic fallout from COVID-19, African Union (AU) member countries and the continent’s institutions should implement the AfCFTA swiftly. The AfCFTA paves the way for Africa – with 1.2 billion people and a cumulative GDP of $2.5 trillion – to become the world’s largest common market. But with the coronavirus hitting the global economy, a worldwide recession is looming. The crisis is bound to have destabilizing effects on our fragile economies as the health crisis worsens. Africa must be prepared. Although the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting Africa the least, the majority of African countries have chosen to preempt the crisis by restricting non-essential travel and gatherings and closing schools and universities. It is impossible to

know whether these measures will stem the health contagion, but Africa will no doubt experience economic contagion. Africa’s main partners in Europe, and possibly China, are already suffering, and the continent’s economy is still largely extroverted – and thus highly dependent on global demand, especially for raw materials. The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa estimates that losses in export earnings are expected to reach $101 billion, including $65 billion for oil-producing countries. Health spending could burden state budgets on the continent by at least $10 billion. There are also fears of food shortages and breakdowns in the pharmaceutical supply chain. Two-thirds of African countries are net food importers, and the situation for medicines is similar. As for the health crisis, the recurring threat of Ebola has given some African states experience in slowing a pandemic. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo and in West Africa, where the 201416 Ebola pandemic hit Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the response to COVID-19 is being organized rapidly. Na-

tional health institutions have reinforced their institutional capacities. The number of African centers capable of performing diagnostic tests has increased from two to 40 in a month, thanks to the World Health Organization, and the AU Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has received a large donation of COVID-19 testing kits from China. Now, the year-old African Medicines Agency must become operational to ensure the coordination of a pharmaceutical manufacturing plan for the continent. Aside from the health effects, the looming global recession is bound to destabilize Africa’s economies and transform their structure, trade, and commercial channels, as well as how people work and study. Under these circumstances, Africa has no choice but to rely on its own resilience, strengths, and agility, rather than hoping for external salvation, to mitigate the impact of the coming crisis and prepare for the next cycle of globalization. More than ever, new technology will be called upon to play a critical role. African companies must speed up their digital transition to remain

attractive, which means that governments must accelerate their rollout of essential telecommunication infrastructure, including fiber optics and high-speed Internet, and invest in human capital and capacity building. The effort will be complex and demanding, but the time has come for large-scale mobilization. In this context, there is a pressing need to reduce the continent’s high trade dependence on non-African partners. The AfCFTA can help facilitate this, but that means dismantling tariff and non-tariff barriers as much as possible, and intensifying the economic regionalization processes that have now begun. The liberalization of tariff barriers on 90% of products, for example, was originally scheduled to take place over five years. This timeframe must be reduced. As it stands, Africa is the least integrated continent. Intra-African trade accounts for less than 16% of the continent’s total trade. Once fully operational, the AfCFTA could boost intra-African trade by 60% in just three years. The agreement will be a catalyst for endogenous development,

through trade, with the extension of value chains across the continent helping to lay the groundwork for industrialization. The acceleration of the AfCFTA is above all a matter of political will. The cost of dismantling the customs taxes that weigh on intra-African trade amounts to $3.5 billion, or a little more than 0.1% of the continent’s GDP. Rescinding these taxes will result in virtually no shortfall, and will unlock the continent’s endogenous growth potential. Maximizing the possibilities of the AfCFTA will be an effective shock absorber as long as the pandemic, and uncertainty about its course, keeps the global economy depressed. It will also make Africa an attractive proposition when the global economy turns around. The continent has no time to lose.

Ibrahim Assane Mayaki, former Prime Minister of Niger, is CEO of the African Union Development Agency’s New Partnership for Africa’s Development (ADA-NEPAD). Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020. www.project-syndicate.org

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Toward a coherent economic strategy for covid-19

BY: JOHN B. TAYLOR

The United States needs a clearer economic strategy to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. While the crisis is unique in many ways, the economic-policy approach following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, seems to be the most useful historical analogue. Like today, that episode involved a sudden, surprise attack that threatened the entire economy, and thus required a rapid response. The immediate task was to sever al-Qaeda and its collaborators’ sources of financing without disrupting financial flows, economic activity, and the reciprocal relationships needed for economic growth. In the end, this strategy proved successful. The economy did not tank, and the 9/11 Commission later awarded the economic-policy response its only “A” grade. Having a strategy is essential. But equally important is that the strategy accurately describe the economic problem at hand. It then must offer specific short- and long-term policies to confront that problem, and it must explain clearly how those measures will achieve their intended ends. Finally, the strategy also must include a plan to guide implementation by the relevant departments of government, the private sector, and US allies around the world. Today, the big problem is that

otherwise sensible efforts to limit the spread of COVID-19 – shelter-in-place mandates, social distancing, businesses closures, travel restrictions – are hitting the economy hard and will continue to do so for some time. With both the US federal government and many state governments – including California, New York, and Washington – having issued orders restricting commerce to varying degrees, people are beginning to worry that the cure might be worse than the disease. But measures to limit the contagion are not the only threat to the economy and markets. So, too, are many of the economic-policy responses currently under consideration. For example, one-time payments to households, while understandable on humanitarian grounds, will neither open up markets nor give firms an incentive to hire. Past experience – namely, the rebate payments issued after the onset of the 2008 financial crisis – shows that such “stimulus” measures do not in fact stimulate. Because people assume that the payments will be temporary, they tend to save rather than spend the disbursement. To be sure, some elements of the US response are more favorable to markets, including the Federal Reserve’s creation of new facilities to keep credit flowing, and efforts by the private sector to expand health-care facilities and produce more personal protective equipment for healthcare workers and patients.

But these are exceptions. The broader trend has not been in favor of the kind of free-market policies that are essential to economic growth. More to the point, the US has no clear strategy, which is why recent piecemeal responses have faltered. On March 16, the White House released “15 Days to Slow the Spread,” its formal guidelines for confronting the COVID-19 crisis. In the few remaining days of this month, the US must develop an economic strategy that does not override the market. Policies to open markets need not be inconsistent with sound public-health policies. The federal government should not shrink from encouraging more market transactions, rather than trying to smother all economic activity. Now is a great time for people to order (online) that $2,000 Peloton exercise bike they’ve been hearing about, or to upgrade their home-computer equipment. To facilitate e-commerce during the crisis, the Federal Aviation Administration could ease its restrictions on the use of drones for home delivery, especially now that fewer commercial airliners are flying. For my part, I am offering my spring economics course online. According to the student ratings that have come in, the product is just as good as the on-campus course I have been giving for years. The crisis also creates an opportunity for regulatory reform. The US strategy could seek to repeal – or at least sus-

pend – many of the rules that hamper growth, while also placing a moratorium on new regulations that risk undercutting employment. One obvious place to start is the 1920 Merchant Marine Act (the Jones Act), which restricts the transportation of goods between US ports by requiring that they be carried on American-made and -operated ships. Rescinding this rule would lower freight costs and open up more distribution channels. Longstanding proposals to streamline the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of new drugs would also be consistent with both the pandemic response and economic growth. By the same token, repealing occupational licensing would open up sectors of the labor market to people who have long been shut out. The plague of unnecessary licensing has spread over the years to include everyone from tour guides and florists to interior decorators. This is not a partisan issue. Under former President Barack Obama, the White House Council of Economic Advisers concluded that runaway licensing requirements “raise the price of goods and services, restrict employment opportunities, and make it more difficult for workers to take their skills across state lines.” Finally, Congress should adopt a bipartisan agreement that there will be no tax increases for the foreseeable future. That commitment alone would provide a real economic boost, and it would be espe-

cially welcome now that some are already calling for tax increases. The tax-hike chorus is sure to grow louder once the deficit from the economic-policy response starts to grow. In sum, the paramount economic problem today is that the response to the pandemic is restricting rather than opening markets. While there will be pressure to relax these restrictions in the weeks ahead, a better strategy would be to deploy more market-opening measures that are consistent with public-health imperatives. The US must take steps to limit job-destroying regulations and avert growth-sapping tax increases – before it’s too late.

John B. Taylor, Under Secretary of the US Treasury from 2001 to 2005, is Professor of Economics at Stanford University and a Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. He is the author of Global Financial Warriors and Choose Economic Freedom (with George P. Schultz). Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020. www.project-syndicate.org

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MONDAY MARCH 30, 2020

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Open letter to the ambassador of the republic of South Korea in Ghana Friday March 27, 2020 His Excellency Kim Sungsoo Ambassador of the Republic of Korea in Ghana Accra, Ghana. Dear Sir, I write to you in these difficult times when our two countries as well as the rest of the world remain united in the fight against the deadly Coronavirus pandemic. It is my prayer that, as a matter of urgency, we find a solution to save lives and that all bereaved families would find some solace and consolation. Ambassador Kim, I, and I am sure almost all Ghanaians, have a huge respect and reverence for your country not only because we have maintained very fruitful diplomatic and bilateral relations that have lasted over the decades, but also because we are a huge consumer of Korean products; be they cars, mobile phones or services. There is some significant unity and mutual respect amongst us and indeed, COVID-19 has reminded us all in a very striking but cruel way that the world has become a global village where we must be each other’s keeper because what happens in one country affects the other and if one of us is not free, none of us is free. It is this unity of purpose that can help us overcome the world’s economic woes and therefore I am a firm believer of a free enterprise and liberal economy where investment opportunities remain open to all. I do know you are also a firm believer in the ‘Ghana Beyond Aid’ vision. I am sure you have followed the disagreement that has enveloped an attempt by Customs Uni-Pass International Agency (CUPIA), an agency of the Korea Customs Service (KCS) to invest in Ghana’s ports systems and take over operations of the Ghana National Single Window (GNSW), a service that is currently being delivered excellently well by two indigenous Ghanaian-owned companies, West Blue Consult and Ghana Community Network Services Limited (GCNet). CUPIA, from your country, is in partnership with Ghana Link Network Services Limited to execute the task on operating the GNSW in Ghana and I respectfully remind you, by this letter that a country’s reputation, credibility, integrity and even motives can be affected by the brand it associates or partners with. There is a disturbingly embarrassing documentation by the Government of Sierra Leone over a contract the

government of that country awarded one of the companies of Ghana Link to offer in Sierra Leone, similar port services that CUPIA of Korea Customs is entering into a partnership with Ghana Link to do in Ghana. I have attached copies of that report to this letter just to further your due diligence checks on the company your country’s CUPIA is partnering. The terrifying documents were written and signed by the Chief Minister of Sierra Leone, the Solicitor General of Sierra Leone and the Financial Secretary of the Ministry of Sierra Leone. You would discover that the Government of Sierra Leone did not only terminate the contract it had with the Ghana Link subsidiary, but also froze the company’s accounts and accused it of tax evasion and an inability to develop and operate a single window system in that country although this was a major requirement in the contract. Your Excellency, the Government of Sierra Leone contracted Africa Link Inspection Company (ALIC) a subsidiary of Ghana Link Network Services Limited to develop, implement and keep up-to-date Computerized Risk Management System and to develop and operate single window concept, among other services for the country. Six years after the contract was signed the Ministry of Finance in Sierra Leone undertook a financial and technical audit of the work being done by ALIC, owned by Ghana Link. The official audit and technical reports made the following findings: 1. As part of the agreement, ALIC was to develop the single window concept for Sierra Leone. This part of the agreement was not complied with or implemented by ALIC. 2.ALIC is 100 percent owned by Ghana Link. 3. The company tax liability was about Le. 45 Billion.

There was no evidence ALIC had paid corporation tax to the Government. 4. There was Revenue loss to the Government of Sierra Leone. 5. ALIC had not been complying with section 4.3 of the agreement in respect of training programmes dealing with local and overseas training courses in the areas of Computerised Risk Management System, Transaction Price data and other areas of inspection. 6. ALIC financial statement shows a loan of UD$4Million from its parent company, Ghana Link. This is however at variance with the amount shown in the Balance Sheet of Le 6 Billion as at December 31, 2017. 7. ALIC’s US Dollar loan from Ghana Link carries an interest rate of 30 percent which is extremely higher than the commercial rate and this was suspected to be a strategy to evade tax payment as interest payments are deductible before dividend payments. Based on the above and other findings, on January 30, 2020, Sierra Leone’s Chief Minister, Professor David J. Francis wrote to the Ministry of Trade and Industry instructing it to terminate the government’s contract with Ghana Link and ALIC. Your Excellency, it is surprising that this is the same company your country’s Customs is partnering in Ghana to develop and operate the same single window and trade facilitation services for which its contract in Sierra Leone was terminated. There are several credible companies, investors and students here in Ghana that can be empowered or partnered for clean investments as your country has demonstrated all over the continent to the admiration of the world. It is worthy of note that the Ghana Link-CUPIA Korea partnership to develop and operate a single window system in Ghana has so far been

a demonstration of technical incompetence and sheer unpreparedness despite the unrestrained political support it has enjoyed from a few key top government appointees. Their piloting exercises have not lived up to expectation and have exposed them to ridicule. Your Excellency, Ghana LinkCUPIA still do not have a single window system that has been tested and demonstrated here in Ghana and up till date trade facilitation and declaration a Ghana ports is still being done by the existing vendors, West Blue and GCNet despite. We have a saying in Ghana that he who keeps silent in the face of a wrong doing is guilty of that same wrong doing. You cannot keep silent over this anomaly sir. Civil Society groups, policy think-tanks and relevant stakeholders in Ghana have unanimously publicly condemned the Ghana Link/CUPIA contract and cautioned it would lead to revenue loss and disrupt Ghana’s trade facilitation achievements. Legal brains have also questioned portions of the contract, for instance, there is agitation that termination of the Ghana Link/UNI-PASS contract by the government either voluntarily or through material breaches occasioned by it, attracts graduated fees of between US$93 million in the first year to US$12m in the tenth year. Given that the UNIPASS/Ghana Link Network Services single window contract was awarded for US$40 million for ten years. The contract even demands that the systems being operated by the two Ghanaian companies; GCNet and West Blue, their intellectual properties, should be taken from them and handed over to Ghana Link/CUPIA before they can work. Truly, Government has written to the two companies to hand over their systems, an incredible directive meant to work against indigenous Ghanaian companies to the advan-

tage of a foreign competitor from your country. Financial brains have questioned the economic sense of the Ghana Link/UNI-PASS contract which states that the processing fee for the UNI-PASS system will be 0.75% of Free on Board (FOB), compared to the existing combined fees of GCNet (0.40% of FOB) and West Blue (0.28% of CIF) which sums up to 0.68%. However, as government receives 35% out of the GCNet’s 0.40% fee, in real terms, GCNet receives 0.26% (0.40% less 35%). This means the total cost to government under t The Ghana Institute of freight forwarders (GIFF) have also raised red flags over the fact that it took Ghana Link in collaboration with CUPIA of Korea Customs Services some five days to successfully make just one single declaration of imported goods into Ghana, an embarrassing evidence the company is not ready to take over the operations of the Ghana National Single Window Among the groups that have publicly spoken against the Ghana Link/CUPIA Korea contract and planned takeover of the GNSW include the Alliance for Social Equity and Public Accountability (ASEPA), Good Governance and Advocacy Group Ghana (GGAGG), Vanguard of Truth, IMANI Center for Policy and Education, members of the Minority in Ghana’s Parliament, and Watchdog Journalists. Your Excellency, these genuine concerns and their continuous nature rub very negatively on the reputation of your government and on your country per the brand association. Many of Ghana’s youth and future leaders are observing keenly almost in disappointment and wondering what the exact motive of CUPIA of KCS may be and why the company and your country has agreed to associate itself in this untidy situation. My humble self, concerned journalists, relevant stakeholder groups and civil society groups are keeping our fingers crossed in wait of a response from you. We would have booked an appointment for a group meeting but we are restrained because of the order to observe social distancing as a way of containing the further spread of COVID-19. We, however, respectfully await a response from you. Thank you. Sincerely yours, Halifax Ansah-Addo niihalifax@yahoo.com +233242186444