NIGERIAN BREWERY INDUSTRY REPORT 2017
BUSINESSDAY RESEARCH & INTELLIGENCE UNIT
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BUSINESSDAY RESEARCH & INTELLIGENCE UNIT
NIGERIAN BREWERY INDUSTRY REPORT 2017
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NIGERIAN BREWERY INDUSTRY REPORT 2017
BusinessDay Research & Intelligence Unit (BRIU) is a Strategic Business Unit (SBU) within the BusinessDay Group, publishers of Nigeria’s leading business & financial newspaper. BRIU operates as an independent department within the organisation. The Unit’s products and services comprise: • Cutting-edge business intelligence and market research studies • Industry analysis & reports • Feasibility studies & business plans • Client-specific research projects and strategic planning • Polling and surveys covering industries and business segments Our areas of focus include market and industry research, data mining, and economic and financial analysis. BRIU seeks to provide you with rare insights from our robust economic forecasting models and analytics. We serve clients from such diverse corporate sectors as banking, insurance, financial services, manufacturing, healthcare, ICT. BRIU also consults for state and federal government ministries, agencies and departments. Our team of research analysts is committed to providing you with the latest insights and perceptions on current trends and developments in your sector, and providing you with intelligence on the Nigerian and global economies.
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Contents Page Objectives of The Report
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Executive Summary 7 Key Players In The Brewery Industry 8 Nigerian Breweries Plc. 8 Guinness Nigeria Plc. 9 SAB Miller Plc. 10 Industry Market Share: A Near Zero-Sum Situation 11 Guinness Lax Marketing or Weak Strategy: What Has Fuelled NB’s Dominance? 12-13 Has Market Share Impacted Profitability? 13 Gross Margin 14 Return on Asset 14-15 Return on Common Equity 15 Keeping Faith With Investors: Dividend Paid 15-16 Sowing and Reaping: How Investors Reacted 16-17 Message From Briu Market Survey 17 Taste and Preferences 17 Incentives from Distributors 18 Highest Selling Beer Brand/Brand Preference 18 Effect of Price changes 19 Did Recession Affect Consumption Pattern? 19
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OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT The spectacular growth in NB’s market share from 63 per cent in 2010 to 68 per cent in 2016 that triggered the interest of BusinessDay Research & Intelligence Unit, to examine the possible tool(s) that NB used to achieve the dominant market leadership. The report aims to explore the performance of firms in the Nigerian brewery industry from the point of view of profitability, market share, brand development, amongst other factors. In addition, information provided by the report will provide vital insight to investors and other stakeholders in the industry to make crucial decisions regarding their financial wealth.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Nigerian brewery industry is dominated by three brewing giants that are subsidiaries of key global brands – Nigerian Breweries (Subsidiary of Netherlands-based Heineken International), Guinness Nigeria (Subsidiary of Diageo, England), and SABMiller (Subsidiary of AB InBev, Belgium). Nigeria boasts of youthful population and the growing middle-class, potent factors that are propelling growth in the country’s brewery industry. Each of the brewing firms has numerous brands that compete for consumers’ patronage in the market. Over the last five years, the brewery industry has revealed a somewhat zero-sum scenario as Nigerian Breweries (NB) continues to grow market share each year, while Guinness Plc (Guinness) records the opposite – a shrinking market share. SABMiller has however not relented in its effort to carve out a part of the market for itself in the increasingly competitive industry. Interestingly, our field survey revealed that almost all the brands of NB has a consumer bonding and social engagement activities attached to them; Guinness brands have less of those activities. The average profitability of NB has moved in tandem with its market share, soaring above that of Guinness in the last five years. Specifically, while NB had impressive profitability value exceeding 50 per cent in years 2007, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, Guinness never attained such feat as the highest gross profit margin recorded was in 2008 (48 per cent). Similarly, of Bloomberg data showed that NB has consistently posted superior return on assets (ROA1) compared with Guinness. NB’s ROA hovered around 27 per cent in 2008, 2009, and 2010. In the same vein, the two brewers returned different proportions of their income to investors as dividend from 2007 to 2016. NB had a higher dividend payout ratio than Guinness from 2007 to 2009. However, Guinness’ dividend payout ratio caught up with that of NB in 2010 (at 88 per cent), and subsequently overtook the payout of the latter in 2011. Investors seem to have shifted their confidence from Guinness to NB in the last decade as a review of the share prices of the two brewing giants has revealed. As investors continue to bestow their investment faith on NB stock, its price has risen above that of Guinness, with the spread reaching N47.70 as at December 6 2017 in favour of NB.
1ROA is a measure of
profitability that shows what has been earned by each unit of resource used in the business
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KEY PLAYERS IN THE BREWERY INDUSTRY NIGERIAN BREWERIES PLC.2 Nigeria Breweries Plc (NB) is a subsidiary of Heineken NV, the Dutch brewing giants. NB was incorporated in 1946 with Star lager as the first brand of beer rolled out from its Lagos Brewery. Subsequently, it acquired Sona Systems Associates Business Management Limited (Sona Systems) and Life Breweries Nigeria in 2011. In 2014, the it concluded the merger process with Consolidated Breweries Plc, and added another three plants located in Ijebu Ode, Awo-Omama and Makurdi to boost its brewing capacity. Presently the company has 10 operational plants across Nigeria. The company boasts of the highest number of brands in the industry. These include Star Lager, Gulder Lager Beer, Legend Extra Stout, Heineken Lager, Goldberg Lager, Life, Continental Lager, Star Lite Lager, Ace Passion, Apple Spark, 33 Export Lager, Williams Dark Ale, Turbo King Stout, More Lager, Breezer, Ace Roots, Star Radler, Ace Rhythm, Star TripleX, Strongbow Cider, Maltina, , and Maltina Pineapple; Maltina Sip-it, Amstel Malta, Fayrouz, Climax Energy drink, Malta Gold, Himalt, Maltex.
2Information obtained from company’s audited accounts and Wikipedia
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GUINNESS NIGERIA PLC.3 Guinness Nigeria Plc. is a subsidiary of Diageo Plc of United Kingdom. The establishment of the Ikeja Brewery in 1963 marks the first overseas operation of the firm outside the Ireland and Great Britain. Exactly two years later, the company was listed in the Nigeria Stock Exchange. In 1974, the Benin plant was established to brew the Harp Lager. The Ogba plant was built in 1982 to brew Harp Premium Lager and in 2004, the fourth plant was set up in Aba, Abia state. Both the Benin and Ogba plants were expanded in the 90s to accommodate the brewing of more volumes of Guinness stout, with further expanssion in 2011 to meet the growing demands of Guinness products. Guinness Nigeria boasts of a rich and diversified portfolio brands spanning the beer, malt and spirit category. Among the brands are Guinness Foreign Extra Stout, Guinness Extra Smooth, Malta Guinness, Malta Herbs Lite, Harp Lager, Smirnoff Ice, Satzenbrau Lager, Dubic Lager, Dubic Malt, Snapp, Orijin Ready to Drink, Orijin Spirit Mixed Drink, Orijin Bitters, Smirnoff Ice Double Black with Guarana, Guinness Africa Special and Orijin Zero. With the expansion of the Benin plant came the introduction of a new production line. The company has been able to brew locally McDowell’s Number 1 Whiskey, McDowell’s VSOP, Gordons Gin - Moringa Citrus Blend, Royal Challenge Whisky, Smirnoff X1 - Vodka and Intense Chocolate. It’s flagship brands are the Guinness Extra Stout and the Harp Lager Beer.
3Information obtained from company’s
audited accounts and Wikipedia
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SAB MILLER PLC
SAB Miller Plc.4 South Africa Brewery Miller Plc (SAB Miller) is a South African firm established in 1895. It became the first industrial company to be listed on the Johannesburg Stock Market in 1897. Its formation of a UK based holding company made it to be listed on the London Stock Exchange. SAB Miller recently entered the Nigeria brewery market through its acquisition of Pabod Breweries, Intafact Breweries and International Breweries Plc. SAB Miller was acquired by Anheuser-Busch InBev (AB InBev) in October 2016. Prior to the acquisition it was the second largest brewery in the world, trailing behind AB InBev. The deal was valued at US$107billion according to the Chicago Tribune. The merger with AB InBev has no doubt helped the company to consolidated its position in the Nigerian beer market. In 2012, SABMiller established a $100million brewing plant in Onitsha; this plant produces the Hero Lager beer. SAB Miller is a regional player. Specifically, most of its brands have been strategically and tactically designed to target a specific regional segment of the market. The company employs different marketing strategy that deepens its market penetration. Among such strategies are cut-throat pricing, product availability, massive targeting of the informal market segment. With the acquisition of SABMiller by AB InBev, the latter now controls 75 per cent of Intafact Breweries, 82.8 per cent of Pabod Breweries, and 72.2 per cent of International Breweries. Presently, only International Breweries is listed on the Nigerian Stock exchange with a market capitalisation of N170.64 billion. The plan by AB InBev to establish the second largest brewery in Nigeria (a $450million mega plant) in Ogun state, and the plan to consolidate the assets and list the three aforementioned firms as one entity on The Nigeria Stock Exchange, will no doubt help fortify its arsenal in the fight for market supremacy at the Nigeria brewery arena. Brands of the brewery outfit include Hero Lager, Trophy, Castle Milk Stout, Castle lager, Redds, Eagle lager, 1960 Rootz, Miller Genuine Draft, Beta Malt and Grand Malt.
4Information obtained from company’s audited accounts and Wikipedia
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INDUSTRY MARKET SHARE: A NEAR ZERO-SUM VISTA
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An examination of the trend market share in the breweries industry reveals a scene from a zero sum game: while NB’s market share grew, Guinness’ market share shrunk. Market share of Brewers (%)
Source: Bloomberg; BRIU Analysis
While NB has maintained its grip on the brewery sector in Nigeria, having grown its market share by close to 10 percentage points in 7 years (its market share rose from 62.96 per cent in 2010 to 71.47 per cent in 20162), Guinness appears to be losing steam in the fight for market share. The market share of Guinness dropped by 14 percentage points in 7 years, from 37.04 per cent in 2010 to 23.23 per cent in 2016. In an industry with an estimated turnover of N295billion, Guinness’ loss appears to be NB’s gain as SABMiller mounts persistent challenge. SABMiller has been performing relatively better since its advent into the Nigeria brewery sector in 2009, having shown doggedness to grab an increasing share of the market. In 2012, its market share (using International Breweries, the company with publicly available financial statement, as an indicator) was 3.6 per cent. This increased to 4.3 per cent in 2013 and financial year 2014 and 2015 saw a marginal increase of 4.7 per cent in 2014. Its market share further rose to 4.8 per cent in 2015 and by 2016, it reached 5.3 per cent. Guinness Lax Marketing or Weak Strategy: What Has Fuelled NB’s Dominance? Until recently, when world’s largest brewers AB Inbev made an inroad into the breweries sector with an intent to leverage its financial and technical strength and exploit its brand equity to drag market share, many had wondered whether the country’s brewery industry was heading towards a monopoly. Again, what is NB doing to make its control of the market unassailable? Could what is/are Guinness’ actions or inactions through which it had inadvertently made NB the undisputed market leader? BusinessDay Research & Intelligence Unit (BRIU) sought to find explanations to these questions and made significant discoveries. 2Our
estimate of market share is based on information obtained from publicly available annual reports of the companies.
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Over the years, NB has aggressively pursued cost leadership, product development and market penetration. This has led to its significant growth as the brewer has averaged a rate of 9 per cent in the last two years. Specifically between 2014 and 2015, NB has introduced into the market such brands as Ace Roots, Strongbow Apple Ciders, Ace Passion, Ace Rhythm, Star Triple X and Star Radler alongside new product packaging in the key malt brands of Maltina, Amstel Malta and Climax energy drink. Guinness also followed by launching new products and rebranding existing ones between 2014 and 2017, but investors are still awaiting the impact of this effort. The company launched Orijin RTD in 2014, Smirnoff Ice Double Black with Guarana in 2015, Guinness Africa Special and the Orijin Zero which is a variant of the Orijin brand in 2016, and the Orijin Bitters in sachet format, Malta Guinnes Herbs Lite, McDowell’s Number 1 Whisky, McDowell’s VSOP, Gordons Gin- Moringa citrus blend, Royal Challenge Whisky, Smirnoff X1- Vodka and Intense Chocolate all in FY 2017. Instructively, NB has strengthened consumer loyalty through customer bonding and engagement activities. It has introduced social and promotional activities that include the following: • The Gulder Ultimate Promotion. • Star Music: The Trek Music Carnival. • Headline sponsorship of 2015 Lagos Fashion and Design Week by Heineken. • Fayrouz La’ Original Competition in Fashion, Modelling and Photography. • Amstel Malta headline sponsorship of African Magic Viewers Choice Awards. • 33 Export Friendship Promotions. • Life Continental Lager Sponsorship of Umu Oganiru Carnival • Goldberg sponsorship of Osun Osogbo festival • Joint sponsorship of Ojude Oba Festival by Goldberg and Maltina On the other hand, Guinness seems to have fallen short in terms of such promotional activities for its brand as it has promotional activities for only such brands as Malta Guinness (Malta Guinnes Game On Campaign), Harp lager (Harp Music Nite) and Guinness Stout (the Guinness Eye Center, LUTH and the ‘’Made of Black’ Campaign). SABMiller’s major promotional activities include a partnership deal between Castle Milk Stout and the football giant, FC Barcelona, and Beta Malt Sponsorship of Senior Secondary School debate and the execution of the ‘’Kick Start’’ initiative. Other promotional activities revolved around executing community development programmes and projects. Has Market Share Impacted Profitability? While it may not be said out rightly that market share of the brewing giants has affected their profitability positions, we have found that NB, with the highest market share, also has higher profitability on the average, compared with Guinness.
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GROSS MARGIN The gross margin of both firms remained impressive, with NB’s value exceeding 50 per cent in year 2007, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. Having stood at 53 per cent in 2007, NB’s gross profit margin fell to 49 per cent in 2008 and 46 per cent in 2009; it recovered in 2010 and 2011 to 47 per cent and 52 per cent, sliding to 50 per cent in 2012. High input cost has hit margins, causing it to decline in 2015 and 2016. Gross Margins
Source: Bloomberg; BRIU Analysis
On the other hand, Guinness has never attained a margin exceeding 50 per cent within the period under review. Its gross margin rose from 45 per cent in 2007 to an all-time high of 49 per cent in 2008. Margins declined to 48 per cent in 2009, remaining at 47 per cent in 2014 and 2015. Guinness margins also took a hit from high input cost, dropping to 43 per cent in 2016.
RETURN ON ASSET Return on asset for the two brewery giants in Nigeria has followed the same pattern - rising at a point only to fall sharply later.
Source: Bloomberg; BRIU Analysis
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Our analysis of Bloomberg data showed that NB has consistently posted superior return on assets (ROA4) compared with Guinness. NB’s ROA hovered around 27 per cent in 2008, 2009, and 2010. It commenced a steep fall in 2012 and by 2016, ROA stood at only 7 per cent. As it was with NB, so with Guinness in terms of ROA. Guinness’ ROA increased steadily from 2008 to and peaked at 21 per cent in 2011, after which is fell at a rate higher than that of NB. By 2016, its ROA has drifted into the negative zone (-1.55 per cent).
RETURN ON COMMON EQUITY The return on common equity (ROE) for the two firms commenced a gradual but consistent decline in different years. While Guinness’ ROA commenced its decline later than NB’s, it has fallen the most. Guinness Nigeria’s ROE rose consistently from 2007 to 2011; NB’s ROE rose only up to 2009, after which it started it consistent fall. NB’s ROE peaked at 70 per cent in 2009 but fell to less than 17 per cent in 2016. On the other hand, Guinness ROE peaked at 48 per cent in 2011, but consistently fell rapidly, plunging to -4.5 per cent in 2016. Return on Common Equity
Source: Bloomberg; BRIU Analysis
KEEPING FAITH WITH INVESTORS: DIVIDEND PAID The two brewers returned different proportions of their income to investors as dividend from 2007 to 2016. NB had a higher dividend payout ratio than Guinness from 2007 to 2009. However, Guinness dividend payout ratio caught up with that of NB in 2010 (at 88 per cent), and subsequently overtook the payout of the latter in 2011, apparently because NB started conserving its cash in order to exploit available investment opportunity. As at 2010, NB had planned to acquire majority stake in Sona Systems Associates Business Management limited and Life Brewery Companies Limited. NB’s capacity was already over stretched, so the company deemed that these acquisitions would help it surmount the capacity challenge, and ultimately assist it consummate its leadership position in the beer market. 4ROA
is a measure of profitability that shows what has been earned by each unit of resource used in the business
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The merger process was finalized in 2011/2012, delivering to NB the benefits of lower distribution cost, wider geographical spread, and deeper penetration of its products in the Nigeria beer market. Having remained constant at 60 per cent in 2011 and 2012, NB’s payout ratio jumped to 79 per cent in 2013 and 102 per cent in 2014. It declined to 98 per cent in 2015 and surged to 128 per cent in 2016. On the other hand, Guinness payout ratio rose to an all-time high of 89 per cent in 2013, falling to 50 per cent in 2014 before rebounding to 62 per cent in 2015.
Source: Bloomberg; BRIU Analysis
SOWING AND REAPING: HOW INVESTORS REACTED Investors seem to have shifted their confidence from Guinness to NB in the last decade as a review of the share prices of the two brewing giants has revealed a fascinating scenario. As at 2008, Guinness share price (N130) was higher than the share price of NB (N49). The difference in Guinness and NB stock prices continued to widen in subsequent years, up to 2013 when the gap was largest (N114). From 2014, there was a semblance of convergence in the share prices of both brewers as Guinness stock lost steam and NB stock resurged, apparently buoyed by the increasing dividend payout. As investors continue to bestow their investment faith on NB stock, its price has risen above that of Guinness, with the spread reaching N47.70 as at December 6 2017 in favour of NB.
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10-year share prices
Source: Bloomberg; BRIU Analysis
MESSAGE FROM BRIU MARKET SURVEY Drawing on the foregoing insight from our preliminary research, the BusinessDay Research & Intelligence Unit (BRIU) conducted a market survey in drinking joints, beer parlours and bars in Ikeja, Ebute Meta, Egbeda, Yaba, Victoria Island, and the Lekki areas of Lagos State. The purpose of the survey was to find out the obvious factors that have contributed to the shift in power from Guinness to NB by speaking to consumers and dealers of the different brands of both brewers. Findings from the survey are presented below.
TASTE AND PREFERENCES A significant portion of the consumers is influenced by the taste of the beers. Those who have developed a strong loyalty for a particular brand do so because of the taste. Market survey reveals that consumers prefer brands that have a bitter taste. Others prefer brands that are double-filtered, smooth, mild and average alcoholic content. Preferences for Beer Brands
Source: BRIU Market Survey BUSINESSDAY RESEARCH & INTELLIGENCE UNIT
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INCENTIVES FROM DISTRIBUTORS Incentives are believe to increase the turnover of firms that produces these beer brands. Such incentives like customize fridges, chairs, tables and so on create brand awareness. Most of the retailers get their products from distributors who deal with both Nigeria breweries, Guinness and SABMiller. Few of them have dealing with appointed agents of these brewery giants. Almost all places visited rated Guinness Nigeria high in terms of providing incentives like customized fridges, chairs and tables to retailers while they frown at Nigeria Breweries lackadaisical attitude in granting incentives to loyal retailers. The retailers confided in us that most of the distributors charged with providing this items to them end up keeping it for themselves. The manager of Ikeja Capital City Hotel at Oba Akran area of Ikeja complained bitterly about buying brands worth thousands of naira but with no incentives from breweries.
HIGHEST SELLING BEER BRAND/BRAND PREFERENCE Our survey reveals that 73 per cent of the retailers said that SABMiller’s Trophy was the highest selling beer brand; 18 per cent said 33 Export Lager sells most, while 9 per cent mentioned Goldberg as the highest selling brand of beer. Consumers of Trophy cited health reasons for preferring the brand – they believe the brand does not pose any negative health risk to them. Some other consumers gave varied responses for their brand preference, ranging mildness of the brands to their smoothness. Others said they prefer the brand because it doesn’t leave an odour in the mouth after consumption. For others, they prefer the brand because they want to wake up the next morning feeling very light, as if they never took any beer the previous night. Other popular beer brands as revealed by our survey include Goldberg, 33 Export Lager, Heineken and Guinness Stout. Best Selling Beer Brands
Source: BRIU Market Survey
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EFFECT OF PRICE CHANGES Pricing is one marketing strategy used by brewers to grab a sizable portion of the market. The price of each of the beer brands vary, depending on the place of purchase. While most beer brands are priced cheaply in local bars, they become expensive as we move to exquisite bars, lounges, and hotels especially for those that have brothels and viewing centres. Our research revealed that consumers are willing to pay a higher price for their favourite brands as long as such increase is within a reasonable range.
DID RECESSION AFFECT CONSUMPTION PATTERN? Majority of the retailers noted that recession has affected them as they experienced low patronage during the period. However, we found that consumers who have developed an intense taste and preference for a particular brand are less likely to be swayed by the pressures of recession. The manager of Leosub Lounge in Egbeda noted that though recession will compete with the meagre disposable income of consumers, most Nigerians tend pour out their frustration, anxiety and fears brought about by uncertainty on a bottle of bear.
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