Appointments

Standard Bank Jersey has appointed Andrea John (pictured) and Lisa Nelson to the board. Andrea joined Standard Bank Offshore Group as Head of Risk two years ago, overseeing the bank’s risk management strategy and policy. During her career she has served as Head of Banking for the Jersey Financial Services Commission and held senior roles at the Bank of England and Financial Services Authority in London. Lisa became Chief Financial Officer of Standard Bank Offshore Group this year, having held senior finance positions at HSBC and Bank of Bermuda. More recently, Lisa was CFO at Pacific Fund Systems.

TrustQuay has appointed Lawrence Nash as Programme Director, based in Jersey. Lawrence, who has extensive experience in operations and financial control, joins TrustQuay from LGL Group, where he served as Head of Change and Transformation for almost two years. Prior to this, he was Programme Director and led strategic projects at Ocorian, having previously been Financial Controller at Sanne. In his new role, Lawrence will help TrustQuay customers maximise the value of their software by improving system usage, adopting new features and increasing customer satisfaction.

IQ-EQ has recruited Helen Bougourd and Keren Bowen (pictured) as Directors in its private wealth team in Guernsey. Before joining IQ-EQ, Helen spent two years as a Client Relationship Director for Beauvoir Group. Prior to that, she worked for Trident Trust Company and NWH Global and as a fiduciary consultant in Guernsey. Keren joins IQ-EQ after 15 years with Guernsey trust company Artemis Fiduciaries, most recently as Director. During her 20 years in finance, Keren has worked with a range of ultra-highnet-worth individuals in various managerial roles for fiduciary providers. Crestbridge has promoted Brian Jemwa to lead its multijurisdictional real estate funds team. With a career in cross-border financial services spanning 19 years, Brian has extensive understanding of real estate funds, financial and risk management and control assurance reporting. He continues to act as a Director on several boards of regulated and unregulated entities. He joined the firm in Jersey in 2015, having worked for Deloitte for 12 years as an Audit Manager in Harare, Zimbabwe, and then as a Senior Manager in Jersey. A qualified Chartered Accountant, Brian is approved as a Principal Person by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.

NatWest has appointed Stuart Foster as Managing Director of Financial Institutions in Jersey, which brings all institutional customers into one franchise. Prior to this appointment, Stuart led the institutional banking business at RBS International, part of NatWest Group, while also serving on the board of NatWest Trustee and Depositary Services. Stuart joined NatWest Group more than 20 years ago and has held a number of management positions in the firm. He serves as a Non-Executive Director for Big Society Capital, where he also acts as the UK Bank Shareholder representative and is a member of the board.

PwC Channel Islands has promoted Alex Burne to Partner, with a focus on driving innovation and the technology transformation of the firm. On graduation from university, Alex relocated to Guernsey to take up a trainee role at PwC, qualifying as an auditor in 2003. He then completed a secondment to PwC in Sydney as part of the financial services audit team, returning to Guernsey with strong international connections. As a Director, Alex has played a key role in PwC’s resourcing strategy and audit transformation, serving as Transformation Leader since 2013..

Oak Jersey has named Jo Gorrod as its Managing Director. Jo joined Oak in 2018 as Client Services Director, having previously held the same position at Equiom Group in Jersey. With more than 20 years in the Jersey financial services sector, she has vast expertise working with UK residents and non-domiciled individuals. She also has extensive experience managing high-value commercial and residential property structures, focusing on the private client sector and handling complex arrangements for high-net-worth multinational families. In her new role, Jo will support the business in delivering its three-year strategy.

Nitrisha Doorasamy has been promoted to Senior Associate in Walkers’ Guernsey office. Nitrisha has been with the firm as an Associate since November 2018. She trained in South Africa and spent more than six years working in the trusts team of South African banking group FNB Wealth and Investments. Nitrisha’s practice is based on supporting local trust companies and high-net-worth individuals with asset protection and succession planning issues. She also works with Walkers’ Guernsey corporate law team on trust and company law and issues involving companies’ underlying trust structures.

Collas Crill has appointed Senior Associate Ian Petherbridge to its corporate, finance and funds team in Guernsey. Ian joins Collas Crill from South Africa, where he was a specialist consultant for Eversheds Sutherland. He has a transactional practice covering banking and financing, as well as mergers and acquisitions. He has advised on projects undertaken in African jurisdictions, several European jurisdictions and offshore jurisdictions. Ian was admitted as a legal practitioner in the High Court of Namibia in April 2007 and as a Notary Public in the Supreme Court of Namibia in 2012. Asset Risk Consultants (ARC) has appointed Stephen McMahon (pictured) to the role of Chief Executive Officer of ARC Group. Stephen, who also remains Managing Director of ARC’s Jersey office, has worked for the company since 2008, when he joined from the Bank of England. He takes over from ARC founder Graham Harrison, who becomes Executive Chairman. In addition, ARC has named Andrew Pollock, formerly a Director at ABN AMRO Asset Management Guernsey, as Managing Director of ARC Guernsey, Wayne McArdle beomes ARC Chairman, and former IT chief David Bartlett becomes Group COO.

HSBC has hired Philip Kurtenbach as Head of Investments and Wealth Solutions, as part of its push to evolve its wealth and personal banking proposition across the Channel Islands and Isle of Man. Philip joined HSBC 14 years ago after working in Germany, and for the past 11 years has served as an International Manager in the UK, US and Hong Kong. Most recently, Philip has been Global Head of Wealth Structured Products in London. In his new role, he will oversee the investments and wealth product offering across Global Private Bank, Premier and Personal Banking for the Channel Islands, Isle of Man and HSBC Expat.

Guernsey management consultancy CBO Projects has appointed Stuart Low as a Senior Consultant to deliver technology strategies and lead projects. Stuart has more than 35 years’ experience in Europe, the US and Asia. He has spent the past two years in Guernsey, most recently as a Programme and Change Director for TT&C Consultants, and before that a Portfolio Director for Agilisys. Before moving to Guernsey, he delivered change programmes for banks including HSBC. He has overseen strategy in manufacturing, and supported digital transformations in finance and motoring.

Stagflation, reflation, soft landing or slump?

Paul French, Senior Client Advisor at UBS Global Wealth Management in Jersey, shares UBS’s view of potential scenarios that will drive the market in the second half of 2022

EQUITY AND BOND markets are driven by stories, hopes and fears about the future path of growth and inflation.

The story of the first half of 2022 has been one of ‘stagflation’, with fears that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) will need to hike rates faster and further to contain inflation-driving bond yields higher and equities lower.

The question now is what story will drive the market over the second half of the year: ‘stagflation’, ‘reflation’, ‘soft landing’ or ‘slump’? And how will markets react?

Now that Fed officials have indicated how closely they are watching and reacting to monthly CPI prints, each inflation data point will likely cause volatility.

Yet it will take several months of data, at a minimum, for the market to gain some clarity on what narrative will dominate the second half of 2022. Investors should be prepared for that volatility as it presents both risk and opportunity.

Volatility is high and it can feel overwhelming for many investors. Here are four simple scenarios that describe the potential outcomes for markets by year-end, along with how investors should position themselves.

1. STAGFLATION – EQUITIES AND BONDS FALL AGAIN

S&P 500: 3,100 US 10-year yield: 4% Probability: 10% Fears that the Fed remains ‘behind the curve’ on inflation continue to dominate markets and bond yields rise. Higher bond yields make equities less attractive, and stocks fall.

How to invest

Manage a liquidity strategy: We recommend a liquidity portfolio that meets around three to five years of cash flow needs, consisting of a combination of cash, bonds and structured investments. Diversify with hedge funds: In times of high equity bond market correlations, hedge funds can help to diversify portfolios. Some hedge fund strategies – especially macro strategies – are designed to perform well in recessionary scenarios.

2. SOFT LANDING – MODEST EQUITY RECOVERY

S&P 500: 3,900 US 10-year yield: 3.25% Probability: 40% Inflation stays elevated, but investors gain confidence that it is falling under control, and bond yields do not move significantly higher. Corporate profit expectations project neither significant growth nor decline. Stocks rally modestly.

How to invest

Invest in value: Value stocks tend to outperform while inflation is above 3%. Evidence that corporate earnings can remain resilient would be particularly supportive of energy. We also like broad value with a quality tilt in the UK. Position for the era of security: As the war in Ukraine continues, governments and businesses alike are adapting to the new era of security – in terms of energy, cyber and food. Over the longer term, we think this will spur demand for carbon-zero, cybersecurity and agricultural yield solutions.

3. SLUMP – EQUITIES FALL BUT BONDS RISE

S&P 500: 3,300 US 10-year yield: 1.5% Probability: 40% A significant drop in economic demand means growth and inflation fall sharply and investors start to expect a significant drop in corporate profits, hurting equity markets. The Fed considers interest rate cuts, supporting bonds.

How to invest

Add defensives and quality: Investors can improve the resilience of equity portfolios by investing in quality income and defensive sectors like healthcare. We also recommend closing the gap in fixed income allocations with resilient credit. We also now prefer high-grade bonds. Make use of volatility: Capital-protected strategies may allow investors to use volatility to work in their favour and mitigate potential downside risks in case of a downturn in equity markets. Elevated volatility also presents opportunities to generate yield in FX, commodity and equity markets.

Investors should be prepared for volatility as it presents both risk and opportunity

4. REFLATION – STRONG EQUITY RALLY

S&P 500: 4,500 US 10-year yield: 2.75% Probability: 10% Inflation surprises to the downside, and a combination of a ceasefire in Ukraine, an end to zero-Covid policies in China and higher labour force participation, drive much investor risk appetite. Stocks rally sharply.

How to invest

Be selective in longer-term growth: An alleviation of market concerns about inflation could trigger a rally in growth stocks. We see opportunity for the long-term in growth stocks trading below long-term average valuations, in automation and robotics and in China. Invest in private markets: Investing in private equity following public market declines has historically been associated with strong returns. The average annual return on global growth buyout funds launched a year after a peak in the MSCI All Country World Index has been 18.6%, according to Cambridge Associates’ data since 1995.

To learn more or find out how UBS Global Wealth Management can help you reach your goals, visit www.ubs.com or contact Paul French at UBS in Jersey. n

FURTHER INFORMATION

Paul French, Senior Client Advisor, UBS AG, Jersey Branch 1, IFC St Helier, Jersey JE2 3BX Tel: 01534 701140 Email: paul.french@ubs.com