Main Economic Developments July 10, 2017
Research and Monetary Policy Department Daily data are updated every Thursday (previous office day if it is a holiday). Other data are updated on the announcement day at 16.00
Contents
Inflation Developments
p. 3-13
International Developments
p.14-30
Labor Market Developments
p.31-36
Balance of Payments Developments
p.37-50
Public Finance Developments
p.51-57
Financial Intermediation and Loans Developments
p.58-73
Financial Markets Developments
p.74-84
Economic Activity Developments
p.85-101
2
Inflation Developments
3
CPI and Special CPI Indicators (Annual Percentage Change) 14
CPI
B
C
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: June 2017.
4
CPI and Subgroups (Annual Percentage Change) 35
Services
Core goods
Food
Energy
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
Source: TURKSTAT.
Food: Food and alcoholic beverages. Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold Last Observation: June 2017.
5
Services Inflation (Annual Percentage Change) 24
Other
Communication
Transport
Restaurants and hotels
Rent
24
19
19
14
14
9
9
4
4
-1
-1
-6
-6
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: June 2017.
6
Inflation Trend Main Inflation Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized) B
C
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: June 2017.
7
Inflation Trend Services Prices (Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized) 16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: June 2017.
8
Inflation Trend Core Goods Prices (Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized) 20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold Last Observation: June 2017.
9
Inflation Trend Diffusion Index (Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Average) CPI
B
0,6
0,6
0,5
0,5
0,4
0,4
0,3
0,3
0,2
0,2
0,1
0,1
0,0
0,0
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Diffusion index is calculated as the ratio of the number of items with increasing prices minus the number of items with decreasing prices to total number of items within a given month. Last Observation: June 2017.
10
Contribution to Annual Inflation (Percentage Points) 14
Energy
Services
Core goods
Food
Alcoholic bev. tobacoo and gold
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Food: Food and alcoholic beverages. Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold Last Observation: June 2017.
11
Domestic PPI (Annual Percentage Change) 25
Domestic PPI
Manufacturing Industry Prices
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: June 2017.
12
Inflation Expectations (Annual Percentage Change) 10
24 Months
12 Months
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
Source: CBRT
Last Observation: June 2017.
13
International Developments
14
Global Inflation (Annual Percentage Change) 10
Advanced Countries
Developing Countries
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Israel. Developing Countries: China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Argentina, Thailand, Czechia, Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Philippines, Ukraine, Vietnam, Chile, Peru, Egypt, Morocco.
Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
Last Observation: May 2017.
15
Core Inflation (Annual Percentage Change) Developing Countries
Advanced Countries
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Israel. Developing Countries: China, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Thailand, Czechia, Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Chile, Peru.
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, CBRT.
Last Observation: May 2017.
16
Global Growth (Annual Percentage Change) 10
Advanced Countries
Developing Countries
Developing Countries excluding China and India
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Israel. Developing Countries: China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Argentina, Thailand, Malaysia, Czechia, Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Philippines, Ukraine, Chile, Peru, Morocco.
Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
Last Observation: 2017 Q1
17
Global Policy Rates (Percent) Advanced Countries
14
Developing Countries
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Australia, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Hong Kong, Israel, New Zealand. Developing Countries: Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Thailand, Czechia, Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Philippines.
Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
Last Observation: May 2017.
18
Markit Global PMI Indices
70
Manufacturing
Services
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
Source: Markit.
Last Observation: May 2017.
19
US House Prices (January 2005 = 100) (Seasonally Adjusted) 130
Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index
S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (USA nationwide)
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: March 2017.
20
PMI (Manufacturing)
65 US
Eurozone
Japan
China
50
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Source: Markit.
Last Observation: May 2017.
21
Unemployment Rates (Percent) 14
US
Eurozone
UK
Japan
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: May 2017.
22
Commodity Prices S&P-GS Indices (January 2005 = 100)
350
Energy
Industrial Metals
Agriculture
Headline
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
23
Commodity Prices S&P-GS Indices (Annual Percentage Change) 120
Headline
Energy
Industrial Metals
Agriculture
120
70
70
20
20
-30
-30
-80
-80
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
24
Risk Appetite VIX
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
25
Spread (OIS Spread) (Percent) US Dollar
Euro
4,0
4,0
3,5
3,5
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
-0,5
-0,5
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
26
GIIPS Countries: Yield Spread (over Bunds) Portugal
Spain
Italy
Greece (right axis)
18
36
16
32
14
28
12
24
10
20
8
16
6
12
4
8
2
4
0
0
Source: Bloomberg.
GIIPS: Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
27
GIIPS Countries: Unemployment (Percent) Portugal
Ireland
Spain
Italy
Greece
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: Bloomberg.
GIIPS: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain Last Observation: June 2017.
28
Portfolio Flows (Billion US dollars) All developing countries, weekly fund flows 12 10
Equities
Bonds
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16
Source:EPFR.
Last Observation: 28 June 2017.
29
Portfolio Flows (Billion US dollars) All developing countries, 52-week cumulative 95
95 Bonds
75
Equities
75
55
55
35
35
15
15
-5
-5
-25
-25
-45
-45
-65
-65
-85
-85
-105
-105
Source: EPFR.
Last Observation: 28 June 2017.
30
Labor Market Developments
31
Unemployment Rate (Percent) Unemployment Rate (%)
18
Non-farm Unemployment Rate (%)
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: March 2017.
32
Employment (Thousand People) 24000
Non-farm Employment
Farm Employment (right axis)
6600
6300 22000 6000 20000 5700
18000
5400
5100 16000 4800 14000 4500
12000
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
4200
Last Observation: March 2017.
33
Participation Rate (Percent) 54
52
Participation Rate %
Non-farm Labor Force/Population 15+ (%) (right axis)
46
44
42 50 40 48 38 46 36
44
42
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
34
32
Last Observation: March 2017.
34
Employment by Sectors (Thousand People) 2200
Construction
Industrial (right axis)
5800
5500
2000 5200 1800 4900
1600
4600
4300 1400 4000 1200 3700
1000
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
3400
Last Observation: March 2017.
35
Employment by Sectors (Thousand People) 16000
Services
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: March 2017.
36
Balance of Payments Developments
37
Foreign Trade
25
Export
Export (excluding gold)
Import
Import (excluding gold)
Import (excluding gold and energy)
25
23
23
21
21
19
19
17
17
15
15
13
13
11
11
9
9
7
7
5
5
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: May 2017.
38
Thousands
(Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Billion USD)
Foreign Trade
300
300 Export
Export (excluding gold)
Import
Import (excluding gold)
Import (excluding gold and energy)
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: May 2017.
39
Thousands
(12-month cumulative, Billion USD)
Real Import and Real Export (Index 2010=100, Seasonally Adjusted, 3-month Moving Average) 160
150 Export
150 140
Export (excluding gold)
Import
Import (excluding gold)
Import (excluding gold and energy) 140 130
130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80
80
70
70
60
60
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: April 2017.
40
Real Import and Real Export (Index 2010=100, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly) 150
Export
Import
Import (excluding gold and energy)
Export (excluding gold)
Import (excluding gold)
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
41
Current Account Balance (Seasonally Adjusted, Billion USD) Current Account
Current Account (excluding energy and gold)
Current Account (excluding gold)
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: April 2017.
42
Current Account Balance (Seasonally Adjusted, 3-month Moving Average, Billion USD) Current Account
Current Account (excluding energy and gold)
Current Account (excluding gold)
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: April 2017.
43
Current Account Balance (12-month Cumulative, Billion USD) Current Account
Current Account (excluding energy and gold)
Current Account (excluding gold)
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40
-50
-50
-60
-60
-70
-70
-80
-80
-90
-90
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: April 2017.
44
Current Account Balance 0
0
-10
-1
-20
-2
-30
-3
-40
-4
-50
-5
-60
-6
-70
12-month cumulative
-7
3-month moving average (Seas. Adj., right axis) -80
Source: CBRT.
-8
Last Observation : April 2017.
45
Thousands
(Excluding Gold, Billion USD)
Current Account Balance
10
1
0
0
-10
-1
-20
-2
-30
-3
-40
-4
-50
-5
-60 -70 -80
Source: CBRT.
12-month cumulative 3-month moving average (Seas. Adj., right axis)
-6 -7 -8
Last Observation : April 2017.
46
Thousands
(Billion USD)
Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP) Current Account
Current Account (excluding energy and gold)
Current Account (excluding gold)
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
47
Main Sources of External Finance* (3-month cumulative, Billion USD) Portfolio and Short Term
FDI and Long Term
CAD
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
Source: CBRT.
*Long term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors’ long term net credit and bonds issued by banks and the Treasury. Short term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors' short term net credit and deposits in banks. Last Observation: April 2017.
48
Main Sources of External Finance* (12-month cumulative, Billion USD) 100
Portfolio and Short Term
FDI and Long Term
CAD
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
Source: CBRT.
*Long term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors’ long term net credit and bonds issued by banks and the Treasury. Short term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors' short term net credit and deposits in banks. Last Observation: April 2017.
49
Real Exchange Rate CPI Based REER* (2003=100) 150
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
REER
70
Developing Countries Based REER 60 50
Source: CBRT.
Developed Countries Based REER
60 50
*Real effective exchange rate. Last Observation: June 2017.
50
Public Finance Developments
51
Contributions To Primary Expenditures* (12-Month Cumulative, Contribution To Annual Percentage Change) Capital Expenditures
Current Transfers
Good and Services Purchases
Compensation of Employees
Primary Expenditures
26
26
22
22
18
18
14
14
10
10
6
6
2
2
-2
-2
Source: Ministry of Finance. * Principal items have been selected.
Last Observation: May 2017.
52
Contributions To Tax Revenues (12-Month Cumulative, Contribution To Annual Percentage Change) VAT on Imports
Special Consumption Tax
Domestic VAT
Corporation Tax
Income Tax
Tax Revenues
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
Source: Ministry of Finance. * Principal items have been selected.
Last Observation: May 2017.
53
Central Government Budget Revenues and Expenditures (12-Month Cumulative, As Percent of GDP) Budget Revenues
Primary Expenditures
23
23
20
20
17
17
14
14
Source: Ministry of Finance, Medium Term Program (2017-2019). * Medium Term Program (2017-2019) target.
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
54
Central Government Budget Balance (12-Month Cumulative, As Percent of GDP) Budget Balance
Primary Balance
6
6
3
3
0
0
-3
-3
-6
-6
Source: Ministry of Finance, Medium Term Program (2017-2019). * Medium Term Program (2017-2019) target.
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
55
Program Defined Primary Budget Balance (12-Month Cumulative, As Percent of GDP) Primary Budget Balance (Program Definition) 4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Source: Ministry of Finance, Undersecreteriat of Treasury, Medium Term Program (2017-2019). * Medium Term Program (2017-2019) target.
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
56
EU Defined Public Debt (As Percent of GDP) Public Debt Stock 60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
Source: Undersecreteriat of Treasury, Medium Term Program (2017-2019). * Medium Term Program (2017-2019) target.
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
57
Financial Intermediation and Loans Developments
58
Total Loans* (Year on Year Change, Percent) 45
Total Loan Growth
Total Loan Growth Rate (FX adjusted)
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: CBRT.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks) Credit cards included NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
59
Commercial and Consumer Loans* (Year on Year Change, Percent) Consumer Loans
Commercial Loans (FX adjusted)
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: CBRT.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks) NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
60
Total Loans* (Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent) 50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: CBRT.
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks) Credit cards included NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
61
Commercial and Consumer Loans* (Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent) Commercial Loans
60
Consumer Loans
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
Source: CBRT.
-10
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks) NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
62
Consumer Loans* (13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent) Housing
50
Other
Automobile
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
Source: CBRT.
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks) NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
63
Total Loans* (Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent) 50
Total Loans (2017)
Total Loans (2007-2016)
Total Loans (2016)
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: CBRT.
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks) Credit cards included NPLs Excluded Last Observation 30 June 2017.
64
Consumer Loans* (13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent) 50
Consumer loans (2017)
Consumer loans (2007- 2016)
Consumer loans (2016)
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: CBRT.
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks) NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
65
Commercial Loans* (Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent) 50
Commercial loans (2017)
Commercial loans (2007-2016)
Commercial loans (2016)
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: CBRT.
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks) NPLs Excluded Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
66
Non-Performing Loans (Percent) 7,0
Total Loans
Commercial Loans
Consumer Loans
7,0
6,5
6,5
6,0
6,0
5,5
5,5
5,0
5,0
4,5
4,5
4,0
4,0
3,5
3,5
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
Source: CBRT. Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
67
Bad Cheque Ratio (Percent) Bad Cheque Ratio (number)
12
Bad Cheque Ratio (amount)
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: June 2017.
68
Loan Rates (Flow, Annualized, Percent, 4 Week-Average) Automobile
Housing
Commercial
Other
26
26
23
23
20
20
17
17
14
14
11
11
8
8
5
5
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: 23 June 2017.
69
TL Commercial Loan Rate (Flow, 4-Week Average, Percent) 24
Commercial Loan Rate
Commercial Loan Rate-Deposit Rate Spread (right axis)
8
22
7
20
6
18
5
16
4
14
3
12
2
10
1
8
0
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: 23 June 2017.
70
TL Commercial Loan Rate (Flow, 4-Week Average, Percent) Commercial Loan Rate
Commercial Loan Rate (Excluding Corporate Overdraft Account and Corporate Credit Cards)
18
18
17
17
16
16
15
15
14
14
13
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: 23 June 2017.
71
TL Commercial Loan Rate (Flow, 4-Week Average, Percent) Commercial Loan Rate-Deposit Rate Spread 7
Commercial Loan Rate (Excluding Corporate Overdraft Account and Corporate Credit Cards) - Deposit Rate Spread
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: 23 June 2017.
72
Indebtedness and Leverage Ratios of Non-Financial Companies Listed on BIST Liabilities and Equity to Total Assets (Conglomerates are excluded, for 259 firms, Percentage Share) 1,2
TL Liabilities /Total Assets 28,3% Equity /Total Assets 40,2%
Euro Liabilities / Total Asset 12,4%
USD Liabilities / Total Assets 18,8%
Other FX Liabilities/ Total Assets 0,2% Source: FINNET, Public Disclosure Platform (1) Including data for 259 non-financial corporations listed on BIST. (2) Non- financial companies using FX fonctional currency, financial institutions and conglomerates are excluded from this sample.
Last Observation: December .2016.
73
Financial Markets Developments
74
Average Funding Cost of CBRT
Outstanding Value (Billion TL)
CBRT Average Fund Rate (Right Axis, Percent)
140
14
120
12
100
10
80
8
60
6
40
4
20
2
0
0
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
75
BIST Repo-Reverse Repo Overnight Market Rates (Percent) Interest Rate Corridor
Repo-Reverse Repo Market Overnight Rates (5 Day MA)
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Source: BIST, CBRT.
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
76
CBRT Rates and BIST Overnight Rates (Percent) Interest Rate Corridor One Week Repo Rate LLW Lending Rate
CBRT Average Funding Cost (5 day MA) Interbank Overnight Repo Rates_Closing (5 day MA)
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
77
Turkish Lira and Emerging Market Currencies (01.11.2011=1, values vis-a-vis USD) 2,2
Turkey
Average of Emerging Economies
Turkey/Emerging Countries
2,2
2,1
2,1
2,0
2,0
1,9
1,9
1,8
1,8
1,7
1,7
1,6
1,6
1,5
1,5
1,4
1,4
1,3
1,3
1,2
1,2
1,1
1,1
1,0
1,0
0,9
0,9
Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
Emerging market currencies include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, Romania against USD.
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
78
Implied FX Volatility (1 month) 35
35
30 Emerging Countries
30
Turkey
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: Bloomberg.
Emerging market currencies include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, Romania against USD.
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
79
Implied FX Volatility (12 months) 30
30
Emerging Countries
Turkey
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
Source: Bloomberg.
Emerging market currencies include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, Romania against USD.
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
80
Currency Basket and EMBI
4,3
Currency Basket
EMBI+ Turkey (right axis)
500
4,1 3,9
450
3,7 3,5
400
3,3 3,1 2,9
350
300
2,7 2,5
250
2,3 2,1
200
1,9 1,7
Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
150
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
81
EMBI
EMBI Europe
EMBI Turkey
EMBI Latin America
EMBI Asia
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
82
Relative EMBI (03.01.2012=1) EMBI Europe
EMBI Latin America
EMBI Asia
EMBI Turkey
1,7
1,7
1,6
1,6
1,5
1,5
1,4
1,4
1,3
1,3
1,2
1,2
1,1
1,1
1,0
1,0
0,9
0,9
0,8
0,8
0,7
0,7
0,6
0,6
0,5
0,5
0,4
0,4
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
83
Yields Across Maturities (Percent) 0.5 year
1 year
2 year
4 year
10 year
13
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
84
Economic Activity Developments
85
Annual GDP Growth (Percentage) 15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
86
GDP (Seasonally Adjusted, 2009=100)
160
140
120
100
80
60
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
87
Final Domestic Demand and Imports (Seasonally Adjusted, 2009=100) 180
Final Domestic Demand*
Imports of Goods and Services
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: 2017 Q1. * Final domestic demand approximately calculated by CBRT.
88
Imports and Exports (Seasonally adjusted, 2009=100) Exports of Goods and Services
Imports of Goods and Services
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
89
Quarterly Growth of GDP (Seasonally Adjusted, Percentage) 8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
90
Industrial Production Index (Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100) 140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: May 2017.
91
Import Quantity Index (Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100) 140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: April 2017.
92
Capital Goods Production and Imports (Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100) Capital Goods Imports 140
130
Capital Goods Production (rhs) 180,0
160,0
120 140,0 110
120,0 100 100,0 90
80
70
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
80,0
60,0
Last Observation: For Production May 2017. For Imports April 2017.
93
Intermediate Goods Production and Imports (Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100) Intermediate Goods Imports 155
145
Intermediate Goods Production (rhs) 130,0 125,0 120,0
135 115,0 125
115
105
110,0 105,0 100,0 95,0
95 90,0 85
75
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
85,0 80,0
Last Observation: For Production May 2017. For Imports April 2017.
94
Consumption Goods Production and Imports (Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100) Consumption Goods Imports 130
Consumption Goods Production (rhs) 140,0
120 130,0 110 100
120,0
90 110,0 80
70
100,0
60 90,0 50 40
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
80,0
Last Observation: For Production May 2017. For Imports April 2017.
95
Capacity Utilization Rate (Seasonally Adjusted, Percentage) 85
85
80
80
75
75
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: June 2017.
96
Export and Domestic Orders Expectations Over the Next Three Months (Increase-Decrease, Seasonally adjusted) Export 40
30
Domestic 40
30
20 20
10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20
-30
Source: CBRT.
-30
-40
Last Observation: June 2017.
97
PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) 60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
Source: Markit.
Last Observation: June 2017.
98
Real Sector Confidence Index (Seasonally Adjusted) 125
125
115
115
105
105
95
95
85
85
75
75
65
65
55
55
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: June 2017.
99
Investment Tendency * (Increase-Decrease, Seasonally Adjusted) 40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40
-50
-50
-60
-60
Source: CBRT.
*Question number 23 from Business Tendency Survey: Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? Last Observation: June 2017.
100
Consumer Confidence Indices
130
120
Bloomberg HT
TURKSTAT-CBRT (rhs)
120
110
110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70
60
50
Source: Bloomberg HT, TURKSTAT, CBRT
60
50
Last Observation: For TURKSTAT –CBRT June 2017. For Bloomberg HT June 2017.
101
Main Economic Developments July 10, 2017
Research and Monetary Policy Department