Research & Insight
Bi-annual leasing broker survey January to June 2021 (H1 2021)
The purpose of this survey is to provide a general market overview only. Although every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate, the BVRLA cannot accept any liability whatsoever for any inaccuracy contained within it, nor for any damage or loss, direct or indirect, which may be suffered as a result of any reliance placed upon the contents provided, whether arising in contract, tort or in any other way. Advice should always be obtained from your own professional advisers before committing to a specific action.
Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside
Research & Insight January to June 2021
LEASING BROKER / SMALL FLEET H1 2021
• The BVRLA broker channel fleet grew by 8% to 392,993 compared to the end of H1 2020. • The total vehicle fleet size reached a new high in H1 2021 and has continued to grow throughout the pandemic. • The proportion of new car BCH contracts with maintenance dropped in H1 2021 by three percentage points to 42%. • New vehicle contracts have returned to growth after falling last year. The number of new car contracts rose 22% year-on-year in H1 2021 and vans by 23%, compared to falls of 13% and 12% respectively for the same period last year. Key Findings (Cars) • • • • •
The car fleet grew 11% year-on-year during H1 2021 to 290,425 New car contracts rose by 22% following last year’s decline. Sales reached 91,889, which is 6% higher than the highs achieved in H1 2019. PCH is the main driver of growth, accounting for 64% of new contracts, compared to BCH which took 33%. During H1 2021, demand for new car contracts for both PCH and BCH was higher than pre-pandemic levels. The proportion of new BCH contracts that are regulated remained broadly unchanged during H1 2021.
Vans • •
• •
The LCV broker fleet grew 1% year-on-year during H1 2021. Despite the LCV fleet growing in size, it accounts for a smaller proportion of the overall fleet amid accelerating demand for cars. The LCV fleet accounted for 26% of the total fleet in Q1 2021, compared to 28% for the same period last year. Business customers account for 96% of the overall van fleet. BCH accounts for 67% of the van fleet, with finance lease taking 26%. Demand for PCH increased significantly in H1 2021 to just over one quarter of new orders, compared to 10% last year and a historic average of less than 5%.
From June 2019 results in the Leasing Broker results are presented using a moving annual total rather than providing a total for the calendar year. This allows consistent comparisons of 12 months for all totals. This is only relevant in the first half report in each year. In all cases where a moving annual total is used rather than a calendar year, the suffix M will be used. In all cases where the end of the period being reported is at the half year, the prefix H1 will be used.
Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside
Research & Insight Vehicles on fleet Vehicles on fleet
LCVs CARS
43628
76874
81284
184779
192457
90964
100830
101166
59187
120458
148819
2014
2015
2016
2017
211448
2018
237281
261295
102568
2014
2015
2016
H1 2017
H1 2018
H1 2019
H1 2020
H1 2021
CARS
120,458
148,819
184,779
192,457
211,448
237,281
261,295
290,425
LCVs
43,628
59,187
76,874
81,284
90,964
100,830
101,166
102,568
164,086
208,006
261,653
273,740
302,412
338,111
362,461
392,993
2014
2015
2016
H1 2017M
H1 2018M
H1 2019M
H1 2020M
H1 2021M
CARS
53,604
63,179
81,974
75,805
72,393
86,672
75,056
91,889
LCVS
19,588
23,862
28,839
28,152
25,999
29,268
25,699
31,546
73,192
87,041
110,813
103,957
98,392
115,940
100,754
123,435
2014
2015
2016
H1 2017
H1 2018
H1 2019
H1 2020
H1 2021
21,324
28,361
35,960
7,678
18,992
25,833
24,014
29,130
7,788
15,559
17,687
4,410
9,681
9,866
336
1,402
29,112
43,920
53,647
12,087
28,672
35,699
24,350
30,532
290425 New contracts
2019
2020
2021
New contracts LCVS CARS 28,839
28,152
23,862
31,546
29,268
25,699
25,999
53,604
2014
2015
81,974
75,805
72,393
2016
2017
2018
86,672
2019
75,056
2020
Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside
CARS LCVS
19,588 63,179
Net additions
91,889
2021
Research & Insight 2014
2015
2016
H1 2017
H1 2018
H1 2019
H1 2020
H1 2021
73,683
79,709
84,841
84,638
84,662
85,545
95,766
99,118
4,183
4,445
4,863
4,740
4,438
3,789
3,473
2,912
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
604
641
675
643
578
519
420
320
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
765
BUSINESS ALL
78,470
84,795
90,379
90,020
89,678
89,853
99,659
103,115
PCH
Cars on fleet BCH Finance lease Subscription Business other Fleet management only
36,111
57,572
87,619
95,796
115,267
141,491
155,985
183,075
Salary sacrifice
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
Personal other
5,877
6,452
6,781
6,641
6,503
5,937
5,651
4,217
PERSONAL ALL
41,988
64,024
94,400
102,437
121,770
147,428
161,636
187,310
120,458
148,819
184,779
192,457
211,448
237,281
261,295
290,425
2014
2015
2016
H1 2017M
H1 2018M
H1 2019M
H1 2020M
H1 2021M
30,562
28,706
31,808
29,619
26,527
27,811
24,286
30,667
1,706
1,585
1,489
1,344
1,041
834
644
728
ALL
Cars: New contracts BCH Finance lease Subscription
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
224
222
277
202
136
85
97
109
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
571
BUSINESS ALL
32,492
30,513
33,574
31,164
27,703
28,730
25,027
32,074
PCH
Business other Fleet management only
18,898
30,363
46,121
42,484
42,745
56,369
48,645
58,823
Salary sacrifice
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
Personal other
2,214
2,308
2,279
2,157
1,946
1,573
1,384
992
PERSONAL ALL
21,112
32,671
48,400
44,641
44,690
57,942
50,029
59,815
ALL
53,604
63,184
81,974
75,805
72,393
86,672
75,056
91,889
* Business other refers to contract purchase, credit hire and lease purchase. Personal other refers to HP and PCP.
Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside
Market share: cars on fleet by finance type BCH
PCH
61% 54% 47% 46% 39%
50% 44%
55% 40%
Other 60%
36%
37%
34%
30%
9%
2014
63%
60%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Market share: new contracts cars by finance type BCH PCH Other 57%
56%
56%
39%
39%
65%
65%
64%
32%
32%
33%
59%
48% 45% 35%
37%
8%
7%
5%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Research & Insight
2014
2015
2016
H1 2017
H1 2018
H1 2019
H1 2020
H1 2021
BCH
26,219
36,030
45,653
48,942
55,576
64,620
65,126
68,479
Finance lease
15,981
20,367
26,643
27,274
29,277
29,694
29,484
26,425
LCVs on fleet
Subscription Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL PCH
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,099
1,908
2,609
2,721
2,863
2,654
2,624
1,679
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
129
43,299
58,305
74,905
78,937
87,716
96,968
97,234
96,712
303
864
1,953
2,334
3,245
3,852
3,928
5,844
Salary sacrifice
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Personal other
26
18
16
14
3
10
4
12
PERSONAL ALL
329
882
1,969
2,347
3,248
3,862
3,932
5,856
43,628
59,187
76,874
81,284
90,964
100,830
101,166
102,568
2014
2015
2016
H1 2017M
H1 2018M
H1 2019M
H1 2020M
H1 2021M
11,992
14,366
18,131
18,378
17,929
20,635
16,717
16,945
6,827
7,817
8,383
7,652
6,264
6,640
5,903
6,055
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
554
1,042
995
839
668
596
586
441
ALL
LCVs: New contracts BCH Finance lease Subscription Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL PCH Salary sacrifice
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
19,373
23,225
27,509
26,868
24,860
27,871
23,206
23,449
201
608
1,327
1,282
1,138
1,393
2,491
8,097
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Personal other
14
29
3
2
1
4
2
1
PERSONAL ALL
215
637
1,330
1,284
1,139
1,397
2,493
8,098
19,588
23,862
28,839
28,152
25,999
29,268
25,699
31,546
ALL
* Business other refers to contract purchase, credit hire and lease purchase. Personal other refers to HP and PCP.
Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside
Market share: LCVs on fleet by finance type BCH
Finance lease
Other
60%
61%
59%
60%
61%
64%
64%
37%
34%
35%
34%
32%
29%
29%
67%
26%
3%
5%
6%
6%
7%
6%
6%
7%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Market share: new contracts LCVs by finance type BCH Finance lease Other 61%
60%
63%
65%
69%
71%
65% 54%
35%
33%
29%
27%
24%
23%
4%
7%
8%
8%
7%
7%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
23%
27% 19%
12%
2020
2021
Research & Insight MAINTAINED CONTRACTS
New car contracts
35% of the overall fleet and 34% of new car contracts are maintained. Other
The proportion of BCH cars with maintenance contracts declined for the third year in a row during H1 2021, with a year-on-year fall of three percentage points. The proportion of PCH contracts with maintenance was unchanged during the first half of 2021, after showing some growth in demand during 2020.
48%
PCH
29%
BCH
40%
New car contracts
35%
34%
Long term decline
Stable
36%*
2019 36%*
2020 37%*
2018 37%*
2019 35%*
H1 2020 M
H1 2021M
BCH
49%
50%
48%
45%
42%
PCH
25%
28%
28%
29%
29%
0%
0%
0%
73%
48%
New LCV contracts Other
2020 35%*
All LCVs on contract
New LCVs contracts
26%
35%
Decline
Stable levels for all finance products.
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 Prepared* by Research and Insight Manager, Phil* Garthside* * * 39% 40% 31% 38% 34%
100% H1 2019 M
42%
PCH
2020 34%*
86% 37%
BCH
LCV new contracts
58%
14%
Maintained 63%
41%
0%
* from expanded survey of maintenance.
80%
H1 2018 M
Finance lease
2018
60%
H1 2017 M
Other
All cars on contract
Non-maintained
58%
20%
Cars new contracts
Maintained
71%
42% 0%
For vans, both BCH and PCH showed strong growth in new contracts signed during the first half of the year, with BCH rising eight percentage points and PCH by 15 points. The penetration of maintenance contacts in new PCH agreements is double the level of two years ago.
52%
20%
Non-maintained
59%
40%
60%
80%
100%
H1 2017 M
H1 2018 M
H1 2019 M
H1 2020 M
H1 2021 M
BCH
35%
39%
36%
33%
41%
PCH
16%
21%
15%
22%
37%
Finance lease
0%
0%
0%
37%
14%
Other
0%
0%
0%
100%
42%
Research & Insight REGULATED CONTRACTS
New car contracts
66% of the overall car fleet is regulated. Other
New car PCH contracts were almost all regulated during H1 2021, although there was a slight decline from 99% last year to 94%. Less than one in 10 new cars under BCH contracts were regulated. There has also been a slight decline in the proportion of BCH contracts for new vans that are regulated, falling from 18% last year to 15% during H1 2021.
All cars on contract
66%
All LCVs on contract
23%
New car contracts
64% New contracts
LCVs
40%
41%
PCH BCH
94% 9%
6%
0%
20%
40%
Cars new contracts BCH PCH Other
60%
H1 2017 8% 98% 42%
Regulated Non-regulated
91% 80%
100%
H1 2018 8% 99% 53%
H1 2019 9% 100% 62%
H1 2020 10% 99% 63%
H1 2021 9% 94% 41%
New LCV contracts Other
33%
67%
Finance lease
33%
67%
PCH
Regulated
100%
BCH
15% 0%
LCV new contracts BCH PCH Finance lease Other Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside
59%
0%
Non-regulated
85% 20%
40%
H1 2017 M 21% 100% 34% 16%
60%
H1 2018 M 20% 100% 31% 18%
80%
100%
H1 2019 M 18% 100% 25% 14%
H1 2020 M 18% 100% 25% 12%
H1 2021 M 15% 100% 33% 33%
Research & Insight
Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside