Research & Insight
Bi-annual leasing broker survey December 2020
The purpose of this survey is to provide a general market overview only. Although every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate, the BVRLA cannot accept any liability whatsoever for any inaccuracy contained within it, nor for any damage or loss, direct or indirect, which may be suffered as a result of any reliance placed upon the contents provided, whether arising in contract, tort or in any other way. Advice should always be obtained from your own professional advisers before committing to a specific action.
Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside
Research & Insight July to December 2020
LEASING BROKER / SMALL FLEET H2 2020
• • • •
The BVRLA broker channel fleet grew by 6% to 379,617 compared to the end of 2019. The total vehicle fleet size reached a new record in 2020 and is nearly three times the fleet size recorded in 2013. The proportion of new car BCH contracts with maintenance dropped in 2020 by four percentage points to 44%. New contracts for cars were down 9.5% year-on-year, but this represents a recovery in demand compared to even greater falls during H1 2020. • New contracts for vans fell 9.9% year-on-year. Key Findings (Cars) • • • •
New contracts for PCH were double those of BCH, but demand for both fell in 2020. The PCH car fleet share hit a new high in 2020; BCH a new low. The proportion of BCH maintained contracts fell to 44% for cars, while the proportion of PCH contracts remained steady at 29%. The proportion of regulated new BCH contracts fell during 2020.
Vans • • •
After faltering in H1 2020, the van sector returned to growth at the end of H2 2020, as PCH demand drove orders. The total LCV fleet has reached more than 100,000 vehicles for the first time, nearly triple its 2013 size. While the proportion of BCH on the overall fleet reached a new high, its share of new contracts stabilised in 2020 as PCH demand rose.
* In 2019 approximately 1/3 of the increase to the total broker fleet was due to business reorganisation and 2/3 due to market growth.
Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside
Research & Insight Vehicles on fleet
Vehicles on fleet
LCVS CARS
99,645 76,874
86,283
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
CARS
99,134 120,458 148,819 184,779 200,943 221,708 257,256 279,590
LCVs
35,840
ALL
134,974 164,086 208,006 261,653 287,226 316,205 356,901 379,617
100,027
94,497
43,628
59,187
76,874
86,283
94,497
99,645
100,027
59,187 35,840 99,134
43,628 120,458
2013
2014
148,819
2015
184,779
2016
200,943
2017
221,708
2018
257,256
2019
279,590
2020
New contracts
New contracts
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
CARS
38,726
53,604
63,179
81,974
70,861
80,235
86,161
77,985
LCVs
11,416
19,588
23,862
28,839
27,268
27,552
27,176
24,478
ALL
50,142
73,192
87,046 110,813 98,129 107,787 113,338 102,463
Net 2013 additions
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
LCVS 28,839
CARS
27,552
27,176 24,478
27,268 23,862 19,588 11,416 38,726
2013
81,974 53,604
2014
63,179
2015
2016
70,861
2017
80,235
2018
Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside
86,161
2019
77,985
2020
CARS
8,427
21,324
28,361
35,960
16,164
20,765
35,548
22,335
LCVs
3,329
7,788
15,559
17,687
9,409
8,214
5,148
382
ALL
11,756 29,112
43,920
53,647
25,573
28,979
40,696
22,717
Research & Insight
Cars on fleet
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
BCH
63,803
73,683
79,709
84,841
84,388
84,404
95,047
97,878
Finance lease
3,755
4,183
4,445
4,863
4,616
4,134
3,789
3,092
Business other*
567
604
641
675
610
500
519
1,157
BUSINESS ALL
68,125
78,470
84,795
90,379
89,614
89,038
99,355
102,127
PCH
25,381
36,111
57,572
87,619
104,828
126,451
151,979
172,620
Personal other*
5,628
5,877
6,452
6,781
6,501
6,219
5,922
4,843
PERSONAL ALL
31,009
41,988
64,024
94,400
111,329
132,670
157,901
177,463
ALL
99,134
120,458
148,819
184,779
200,943
221,708
257,256
279,590
Market share: cars on fleet by finance type BCH 64%
47% 39% 26% 10%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
BCH
23,403
30,562
28,706
31,808
27,761
26,235
28,550
25,126
Finance lease
1,162
1,706
1,585
1,489
1,198
857
768
698
Business other*
182
224
222
277
127
108
96
671
BUSINESS ALL
24,747
32,492
30,513
33,574
29,086
27,200
29,414
26,495
PCH
11,948
18,898
30,363
46,121
39,740
51,292
55,275
50,158
Personal other*
2,031
2,214
2,303
2,279
2,035
1,743
1,472
1,333
PERSONAL ALL
13,979
21,112
32,666
48,400
41,775
53,035
56,747
51,491
ALL
38,726
53,604
63,179
81,974
70,861
80,235
86,161
77,985
* Business other refers to contract purchase, credit hire and lease purchase. Personal other refers to HP and PCP.
Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside
30%
46%
Other 57%
59%
62%
42%
38%
37%
35%
61% 54%
2013
Cars: New contracts
PCH
52%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Market share: new contracts cars by finance type BCH PCH Other 60%
57%
56%
56%
39%
39%
64%
64%
64%
32%
33%
32%
48% 31%
9%
2013
35%
45%
8%
7%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Research & Insight LCVs on fleet
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
BCH
22,269
26,219
36,030
45,653
52,603
59,050
64,366
65,126
Finance lease
12,593
15,981
20,367
26,643
27,901
29,124
28,698
29,484
Business other*
809
1,099
1,908
2,609
2,833
2,704
2,633
2,624
BUSINESS ALL
35,671
43,299
58,305
74,905
83,337
90,878
95,697
97,234
PCH
124
303
864
1,953
2,935
3,606
3,944
3,928
45
26
18
16
11
13
4
4
PERSONAL ALL
169
329
882
1,969
2,946
3,619
3,948
3,932
ALL
35,840
43,628
59,187
76,874
86,283
94,497
99,645
101,166
Personal other
*
LCVs: New contracts
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
BCH
7,102
11,992
14,366
18,131
18,488
19,593
18,606
16,731
Finance lease
3,929
6,827
7,817
8,383
6,921
5,923
6,814
5,287
Business other*
288
554
1,042
995
682
630
587
548
BUSINESS ALL
11,319
19,373
23,225
27,509
26,091
26,146
26,007
22,567
PCH
83
201
608
1,327
1,177
1,404
1,165
1,910
*
14
14
29
3
0
2
4
2
PERSONAL ALL
97
215
637
1,330
1,177
1406
1169
1,912
ALL
11,416
19,588
23,862
28,839
27,268
27,552
27,176
24,478
Personal other
* Business other refers to contract purchase, credit hire and lease purchase. Personal other refers to HP and PCP.
Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside
Market share: LCVs on fleet by finance type BCH
Finance lease
Other
62%
60%
61%
61%
62%
65%
67%
59%
35%
37%
34%
35%
32%
31%
28%
26%
3%
3%
5%
6%
7%
7%
7%
7%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Market share: new contracts LCVs by finance BCH Finance lease Other type 62%
61%
60%
34%
35%
33%
63%
29%
68%
25%
71%
68%
68%
21%
25%
22%
3%
4%
7%
8%
7%
7%
6%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
10% 2020
Research & Insight MAINTAINED CONTRACTS 33% of the overall fleet and 29% of new contracts are maintained. Maintenance levels for cars under BCH dropped in 2020 by four percentage points to the lowest level since measurement for this figure began in 2016. Maintenance levels in new car PCH rose by 1%. Maintenance with BCH contracts for vans continued to fall, reaching the lowest level since this measurement began in 2016.
Total car contracts
2016
2017
2018
2019
202
BCH maintained
52%
52%
51%
53%
49
PCH maintained
25%
25%
26%
27%
28
21%
22
Other maintained
New car contracts Other
All cars on contract
New car contracts
35%
35%
Long term decline
Stable
2017
38%*
2018 36%*
2019 36%*
2017 35%*
2018 37%*
67%
PCH
29%
BCH
Maintained
71%
44% 0%
2019 35%*
33%
Non-maintained
56%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total LCV contracts
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
BCH maintained
42%
40%
40%
41%
38%
PCH maintained
14%
16%
16%
16%
14%
7%
4%
Finance lease (m)
All LCVs on contract
2017
39%*
New LCVs contracts
28%
12%
Decline
Decline
2018 38%*
2019
2017
39%*
37%*
2018 36%*
* revised from expanded survey of maintenance levels for all finance products.
Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside
13%
Other maintained
New LCV contracts
2019 34%*
Other Finance lease PCH BCH
83%
33% 36% 38% 0%
20%
17%
67% 64% 62% 40%
60%
Maintained Non-maintained 80%
100%
Research & Insight REGULATED CONTRACTS 56% of the overall fleet is regulated. The long-term growth in PCH is increasing the proportion of the fleet that is regulated. This is also starting to affect the LCV sector, where there has been a leap in demand for personal contracts in the past year.
Total car contracts
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
BCH regulated
10%
9%
9%
10%
10%
PCH regulated
100%
100%
100%
97%
100%
Other regulated
56%
54%
53%
52%
50%
New car contracts Other
50%
50%
PCH BCH
All cars on contract
67%
All LCVs on contract
24%
Non-regulated
93%
0%
Regulated
40%
Total LCV contracts
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
BCH regulated
19%
20%
19%
18%
16%
PCH regulated
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Finance lease (r)
36%
35%
34%
31%
31%
LCVs
Other regulated
60%
61%
68%
68%
68%
34%
New LCV contracts
68%
contracts
7%
0%
20%
New car contracts
New
100%
Other Finance lease PCH BCH
11% 23%
80%
89% 77% 100% 84%
16% 0%
Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside
60%
20%
40%
60%
100%
Regulated 0% 80%
100%
Non-regulated