Quarter 3, 2020
The purpose of this survey is to provide a general market overview only. Although every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate, the BVRLA cannot accept any liability whatsoever for any inaccuracy contained within it, nor for any damage or loss, direct or indirect, which may be suffered as a result of any reliance placed upon the contents provided, whether arising in contract, tort or in any other way. Advice should always be obtained from your own professional advisers before committing to a specific action.
2
Key results 2020 quarter 3 A changing market The BVRLA Overall Fleet (OF) for cars and LCVs is 2,506,416. This is made up of 83% cars (2,083,208) and 17% LCVs (423,208). The OF has dropped by -1% (down 26,556) compared to the preceding quarter. These numbers include all cars and LCVs in the BVRLA fleet except PCP, daily rental & credit hire. Trading during Quarter 3 continued to be influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, although the quarter was a relatively calm period as restrictions were eased and greater levels of economic activity allowed; this was tempered by regional restrictions designed to ensure local lockdowns were only enforced where the risk was highest. In July 2020, Prime Minister Boris Johnson set out plans for a "significant return to normality" in England from as early as November, while shielding advice for the clinically vulnerable was paused in England and Scotland; the ‘Eat Out To Help Out’ scheme launched in August, while pupils were urged to return to schools once term started in September.
However, for most businesses trading conditions remained difficult and the BVRLA RG fleet reduced in size during the quarter by 4.4% compared to the previous year, with the business contract hire car fleet falling close to the 1 million mark; this fall was only partially offset by consumer demand that continues to rise and now represents nearly one quarter of the car fleet. The continuing expansion of the PCH fleet indicates there are opportunities for growth in this difficult market, including LCVs, which have played a vital role in the pandemic response by underpinning remote services and home delivery. Electrified vehicles are also arriving in greater numbers and reshaping the new car market. Hybrids, plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles surged to 36% of total leased car deliveries during the quarter, driven by corporate demand where tax incentives can deliver savings worth thousands of pounds to drivers who switch from petrol or diesel. With signs of lockdown easing, there was an uptick in business confidence, but this may prove to have been shortlived as the pandemic worsened during Q4 2020 and uncertainty over the likelihood of a Brexit deal remained until the final days of the year.
3
Introduction and methodology Definition of groups Overall Fleet (OF)
2,506,416 2,083,208
Sample
423,208
A Sample Group (SG) of members are surveyed quarterly (light green left) to calculate a growth multiplier for each finance product and vehicle type which is used to calculate overall volumes for all members (and within a year for any members departing during the year) by finance product and vehicle type. There were 16 respondents this quarter.
Group (SG)
Type
Reporting Group (RG)
YES
Business
YES
847,862
580,415
267,447
YES
Consumer
YES
297,578
292,533
5,045
NO
Business
YES
605,280
458,298
146,982
NO
Consumer
YES
34,648
33,602
1,046
NO
ALL
CAR
A new methodology has been used for the last four quarters.
LCV
Figures reported throughout the Quarterly Leasing Report are of a wider group called the Reporting Group (RG), and this includes members who are current at the start of the reporting year, provided they have been members for the preceding three years. Reported trends are therefore the result of market changes rather than changes in membership. Members included in the RG change once a year. Their volumes are collected once per year in the annual membership census.
Business
NO
86,516
83,828
2,688
NO
Consumer
NO
20,532
20,532
0
The third group includes members who have joined within the last three years, and Motability which is excluded from the survey for other reasons.
NO
Consumer
Excluded
614,000
614,000
0
The SG accounted for 64% of the RG. The RG is 71% of the Overall Fleet (OF). The SG is not a true representative sample of the OF because it excludes captives and PCP vehicles, and it samples disproportionately more large fleets than small. Further work will be carried out to encourage more captives and small fleet providers into the SG.
4
Introduction and methodology The methodology for the survey was amended in December 2019 in the following ways: First, we have removed the concept of risk fleet, focussing instead on consumer and business fleets which are dominated by PCH and BCH respectively. The large PCP fleets, mainly reported by manufacturer captives, are excluded. Salary sacrifice and ECOS are recorded as consumer; and salary sacrifice is reported separately to contract hire. Daily rental and credit hire continue to be excluded from the survey. Second, we have added a range of new measures including a more comprehensive look by contract type at the following: the number of maintained contracts; the number of contracts for new and used cars, and the number of contracts derived from different channels to market. Channels to market categories will require further work because the “Other” group is too large. Third the fuel types have been adjusted to categories now in general use focussing on petrol and diesel, plug-in versus non-plug-in hybrids, and BEVs. The distinction between petrol and diesel hybrids has been dropped, and HEV, FCEV and MHEV has been adopted as sub-sets of non-plug-in hybrids. These detailed measures are surveyed using the Sample Group but expressed in the proportions found, as volumes for the whole Reporting Group.
Managing compliant publication of members’ data The BVRLA have agreed a number of safeguards around disclosure of members’ data. Some data has not been disclosed in accordance with these safeguards, and has been marked “Redacted.” A summary of the rules is as follows: First, it has been agreed that the release of any market data from the fleet leasing survey will be withheld for a minimum of three months. Second, data will be only be provided as aggregated totals derived from sufficient members that the performance of individual members is not revealed. In all cases the minimum necessary number of members will be five. Third, processes for collection and processing of member data have been established to protect the confidentiality of members’ data. A copy of the full data compliancy guidelines is available from Phil Garthside at the BVRLA.
December 2020
5
The BVRLA fleet The BVRLA Overall Fleet including cars and LCVs is 2,506,416 of which 83% are cars and 17% are LCVs. This figure excludes short term rental, credit hire, and PCP finance (the latter predominantly from manufacturer captives). The BVRLA Reporting Group fleet volumes are summarised below. The Reporting Group (RG) contains all members who have reported fleet sizes in all of the last three years. The RG has diminished -4.4% year-on-year in 2020 Q3 (down 82,512 to 1,785,368). This comprises a fall of -6% in cars (down 86,955 to 1,364,848) and an increase of +1.1% in LCVs (up 4,443 to 420,520), although the rate of growth is diminishing compared to the past two quarters. Vehicle
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
2020 Q3
ALL
1,852,049 1,876,361 1,890,590 1,917,054 1,904,337 1,894,286 1,893,953 1,896,308 1,877,413 1,877,319 1,867,880 1,858,650 1,840,079 1,810,263 1,785,368
CAR
1,455,696 1,475,161 1,491,456 1,518,615 1,502,543 1,487,622 1,488,521 1,484,455 1,463,857 1,461,078 1,451,803 1,442,061 1,417,851 1,385,338 1,364,848
LCV
396,353 % Y/Y
2017 Q1
401,200 2017 Q2
399,134 2017 Q3
398,439 2017 Q4
401,794 2018 Q1
406,664 2018 Q2
405,432 2018 Q3
411,853 2018 Q4
413,556 2019 Q1
416,241 2019 Q2
416,077 2019 Q3
416,589 2019 Q4
422,228 2020 Q1
424,925 2020 Q2
420,520 2020 Q3
ALL
11%
9.3%
7.5%
5.0%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
-1.1%
-1.4%
-0.9%
-1.4%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-3.6%
-4.4%
CAR
12%
11%
8.7%
6.0%
3.2%
0.8%
-0.2%
-2.2%
-2.6%
-1.8%
-2.5%
-2.9%
-3.1%
-5.2%
-6.0%
LCV
3.9%
4.1%
3.4%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.6%
3.4%
2.9%
2.4%
2.6%
1.1%
2.1%
2.1%
1.1%
6
BVRLA car fleet The BVRLA Overall Fleet for cars is 2,083,208 of which 54% is business fleet and 46% is consumer fleet. This figure excludes short term rental, credit hire, and PCP finance (the latter predominantly from manufacturer captives) and recognises Motability as a consumer finance product. The Reporting Group shrank in 2020 Q3 by -6% year-on-year (down 85,955 to 1,364,848) continuing a trend of reductions that started in Q3 2018. Year-on-year, business fleet reduced in size by -8.7% (down 99,350 to 1,038,713) in 2020 Q3, the largest fall to date in a trend that began in Q2 2018. Consumer fleet increased in size year-on-year by 4% (up 12,395 to 326,135) although growth has slowed significantly since last year, when the quarter on quarter increase reduced from 2.6% in 2019, to 0.7% in 2020. Cars by Product Type
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
2020 Q3
ALL
1,455,696 1,475,161 1,491,456 1,518,615 1,502,543 1,487,622 1,488,521 1,484,455 1,463,857 1,461,078 1,451,803 1,442,061 1,417,851 1,385,338 1,364,848
BUSINESS
1,223,566 1,237,255 1,243,070 1,256,733 1,241,697 1,221,841 1,207,337 1,189,176 1,169,647 1,155,176 1,138,063 1,124,809 1,097,740 1,061,388 1,038,713
CONSUMER % Y/Y
232,130 2017 Q1
237,906 2017 Q2
248,386 2017 Q3
261,882 2017 Q4
260,846 2018 Q1
265,781 2018 Q2
281,184 2018 Q3
295,279 2018 Q4
294,210 2019 Q1
305,902 2019 Q2
313,740 2019 Q3
317,252 2019 Q4
320,111 2020 Q1
323,950 2020 Q2
326,135 2020 Q3
ALL
13%
11%
8.7%
6.0%
3.2%
0.8%
-0.2%
-2.2%
-2.6%
-1.8%
-2.5%
-2.9%
-3.1%
-5.2%
-6.0%
BUSINESS
9.2%
8.5%
6.3%
3.6%
1.5%
-1.2%
-2.9%
-5.4%
-5.8%
-5.5%
-5.7%
-5.4%
-6.1%
-8.1%
-8.7%
CONSUMER
33%
25%
22%
20%
12%
12%
13%
13%
13%
15%
12%
7.4%
8.8%
5.9%
% Cross ALL
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
4.0% 2020 Q3
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
BUSINESS
84%
84%
83.3%
83%
83%
82%
81%
80%
80%
79%
78%
78%
77%
77%
76%
CONSUMER
16%
16%
17%
17%
17%
18%
19%
20%
20%
21%
22%
22%
23%
23%
24%
7
BVRLA car market Percentage growth in business and consumer car fleet
Business and consumer car fleet by quarter 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0
40% 30% 20% 10%
0% -10% 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
BUSINESS
CONSUMER
2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 BUSINESS
CONSUMER
8
BVRLA LCV fleet 430000
The overall size of the BVRLA LCV fleet is 423,208 of which 98% is business fleet.
425000 420000
The Reporting Group ended 2020 Q3 totalling 420,520 (99% of the overall fleet), which increased year-on-year during 2020 Q3 by 1.1% (4,443), although the total fleet is lower compared to Q1 and Q2, 2020.
415000 410000 405000 400000 395000 390000 385000
380000 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3
Business
Product Type
2017 Q1
Consumer
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
2018 Q1
Although there is a substantial percentage increase in consumer financed LCVs, this is from a very low base, so the rise only represents a small volume of vehicles year-on-year (1,268). Business finance continues to dominate, accounting for 99% of the market during Q3 2020, although growth of 0.8% (3,175 to 414,429) is the lowest year-on-year increase recorded over the period shown on the chart below. 2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
2020 Q3
ALL
396,353
401,200
399,134
398,439
401,794
406,664
405,432
411,853
413,556
416,241
416,077
416,589
422,228
424,925
420,520
BUSINESS
392,943
397,185
394,686
393,923
397,345
401,986
400,830
407,244
408,850
411,502
411,254
411,881
416,292
418,254
414,429
3,410
4,015
4,448
4,516
4,449
4,678
4,602
4,609
4,706
4,739
4,823
4,708
5,936
6,671
CONSUMER % Y/Y
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
6,091 2020 Q3
ALL
3.9%
4.1%
3.4%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.6%
3.4%
2.9%
2.4%
2.6%
1.1%
2.1%
2.1%
1.1%
BUSINESS
3.6%
3.8%
3.0%
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.6%
3.4%
2.9%
2.4%
2.6%
1.1%
1.8%
1.6%
0.8%
CONSUMER
55%
57%
57%
43%
31%
17%
3.5%
2.1%
5.8%
1.3%
4.8%
2.1%
26%
41%
% Cross
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
26% 2020 Q3
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
BUSINESS
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
98%
99%
CONSUMER
0.9%
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.1%
1.4%
1.6%
1.4%
ALL
9
BVRLA car market by finance product Year-on-year, the decline of business contract hire is accelerating, falling 11% in Q3 2020 (down 92,644 to 770,856), the lowest figure shown. Consequently, the total across all business and personal finance products has fallen 6% (86,955 to 1,364,848) despite consumer finance growing 4% (up 12,395 to 326,135), mostly from personal contract hire. Finance Product Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL
2017 Q1 941,477 29,921 17,148 235,020 1,223,566 165,663 Redacted Redacted 232,130 1,455,696
2017 Q2 941,116 27,909 19,563 248,667 1,237,255 174,298 Redacted Redacted 237,906 1,475,161
2017 Q3 929,962 29,256 19,775 264,077 1,243,070 180,641 Redacted Redacted 248,386 1,491,456
2017 Q4 933,682 29,168 17,477 276,406 1,256,733 193,877 Redacted Redacted 261,882 1,518,615
2018 Q1 927,051 27,078 17,304 270,264 1,241,697 200,346 Redacted Redacted 260,846 1,502,543
2018 Q2 919,231 26,312 16,422 259,876 1,221,841 207,790 Redacted Redacted 265,781 1,487,622
2018 Q3 913,563 25,993 16,172 251,609 1,207,337 226,812 Redacted Redacted 281,184 1,488,521
2018 Q4 903,880 25,070 15,125 245,101 1,189,176 243,186 Redacted Redacted 295,279 1,484,455
2019 Q1 889,471 24,888 16,192 239,096 1,169,647 250,260 Redacted Redacted 294,210 1,463,857
2019 Q2 878,366 25,322 16,188 235,300 1,155,176 256,528 Redacted Redacted 305,902 1,461,078
2019 Q3 863,500 25,582 14,770 234,211 1,138,063 265,854 Redacted Redacted 313,740 1,451,803
2019 Q4 853,986 27,148 15,924 227,751 1,124,809 271,663 Redacted Redacted 317,252 1,442,061
2020 Q1 829,861 26,430 15,634 225,815 1,097,740 272,377 Redacted Redacted 320,111 1,417,851
2020 Q2 793,171 26,273 14,480 227,464 1,061,388 271,264 Redacted Redacted 323,950 1,385,338
2020 Q3 770,856 25,793 15,839 226,225 1,038,713 276,353 Redacted Redacted 326,135 1,364,848
% Y/Y Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL
2017 Q1 5.9% 6.6% 15% 24% 9.2% 45% 15.4% 6.7% 33% 12%
2017 Q2 4.6% 2.6% 12% 27% 8.5% 36% -0.8% 4.4% 25% 10.8%
2017 Q3 1.9% 3.5% 38% 24% 6.3% 30% 8.3% 2.8% 22% 8.7%
2017 Q4 -1.1% -2.4% 1% 25% 3.6% 27% 3.1% 2.8% 20% 6.0%
2018 Q1 -1.5% -9.5% 1% 15% 1.5% 21% 1.2% -19% 12% 3.2%
2018 Q2 -2.3% -5.7% -16.1% 4.5% -1.2% 19% 8.5% -24% 12% 0.8%
2018 Q3 -1.8% -11.2% -18.2% -4.7% -2.9% 26% -13% -26% 13% -0.2%
2018 Q4 -3.2% -14.0% -13.5% -11.3% -5.4% 25% -15% -32% 13% -2.2%
2019 Q1 -4.1% -8.1% -6.4% -11.5% -5.8% 25% -19% -38% 13% -2.6%
2019 Q2 -4.4% -3.8% -1.4% -9.5% -5.5% 24% -20% -9.0% 15% -1.8%
2019 Q3 -5.5% -1.6% -8.7% -6.9% -5.7% 17% -18% -5.5% 12% -2.5%
2019 Q4 -5.5% 8.3% 5.3% -7.1% -5.4% 12% -17% -7.7% 7.4% -2.9%
2020 Q1 -6.7% 6.2% -3.4% -5.6% -6.1% 8.8% -9.8% 37% 8.8% -3.1%
2020 Q2 -9.7% 3.8% -10.6% -3.3% -8.1% 5.7% -7.2% 22% 5.9% -5.2%
2020 Q3 -11% 0.8% 7.2% -3.4% -8.7% 3.9% -0.7% 8.7% 4.0% -6.0%
% Cross Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL
2017 Q1 65% 2.1% 1.2% 16% 84% 11% 2.2% 2.3% 16% 100%
2017 Q2 64% 1.9% 1.3% 17% 84% 12% 2.0% 2.3% 16% 100%
2017 Q3 62% 2.0% 1.3% 18% 83% 12% 2.2% 2.3% 17% 100%
2017 Q4 62% 1.9% 1.2% 18% 83% 13% 2.2% 2.3% 17% 100%
2018 Q1 62% 1.8% 1.2% 18% 83% 13% 2.2% 1.8% 17% 100%
2018 Q2 62% 1.8% 1.1% 18% 82% 14% 2.1% 1.8% 18% 100%
2018 Q3 61% 1.7% 1.1% 17% 81% 15% 2.0% 1.7% 19% 100%
2018 Q4 61% 1.7% 1.0% 17% 80% 16% 1.9% 1.6% 20% 100%
2019 Q1 61% 1.7% 1.1% 16% 80% 17% 1.8% 1.2% 20% 100%
2019 Q2 60% 1.7% 1.1% 16% 79% 18% 1.7% 1.6% 21% 100%
2019 Q3 60% 1.8% 1.0% 16% 78% 18% 1.7% 1.6% 22% 100%
2019 Q4 59% 1.9% 1.1% 16% 78% 19% 1.6% 1.5% 22% 100%
2020 Q1 59% 1.9% 1.1% 16% 77% 19% 1.7% 1.7% 23% 100%
2020 Q2 57% 1.9% 1.0% 16% 77% 20% 1.7% 2.1% 23% 100%
2020 Q3 56% 1.9% 1.2% 17% 76% 20% 1.7% 1.9% 24% 100%
50% 30%
6%
45% 25%
4%
40% 20%
2%
35% 15%
0%
30%
-2%
25%
-4%
20%
-6%
15%
-8%
10% -5%
-10%
5% -10%
-12%
0% -15%
8%
Personal contract hire
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3
Business contract hire
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3
10
BVRLA fleet car market year-on-year growth business and personal contract hire, fleet management Fleet management only
10% 5%
0%
11
BVRLA LCV market by finance product The LCV market grew 1.1% year-on-year with business accounting for the vast majority of demand. Finance Product Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Consumer other CONSUMER ALL ALL
2017 Q1 264,093 70,170 18,741 39,939 392,943 3,402 Redacted Redacted 3,410 396,353
2017 Q2 272,166 70,692 15,021 39,306 397,185 4,007 Redacted Redacted 4,015 401,200
2017 Q3 274,610 71,428 12,044 36,604 394,686 4,438 Redacted Redacted 4,448 399,134
2017 Q4 278,893 70,928 8,245 35,857 393,923 4,506 Redacted Redacted 4,516 398,439
2018 Q1 279,108 72,726 8,064 37,447 397,345 4,437 Redacted Redacted 4,449 401,794
2018 Q2 283,071 73,590 7,756 37,569 401,986 4,667 Redacted Redacted 4,678 406,664
2018 Q3 282,554 74,891 7,353 36,032 400,830 4,591 Redacted Redacted 4,602 405,432
2018 Q4 286,133 76,492 7,107 37,512 407,244 4,598 Redacted Redacted 4,609 411,853
2019 Q1 287,505 77,540 7,330 36,475 408,850 4,672 Redacted Redacted 4,706 413,556
2019 Q2 286,862 77,932 7,415 39,293 411,502 4,706 Redacted Redacted 4,739 416,241
2019 Q3 285,749 78,814 7,328 39,363 411,254 4,790 Redacted Redacted 4,823 416,077
2019 Q4 286,292 79,538 7,706 38,345 411,881 4,674 Redacted Redacted 4,708 416,589
2020 Q1 288,895 77,753 9,464 40,180 416,292 5,901 Redacted Redacted 5,936 422,228
2020 Q2 2020 Q3 289,040 291,071 78,715 79,107 10,271 7,753 40,228 34,498 418,254 414,429 6,636 6,049 Redacted Redacted Redacted Redacted 6,671 6,091 424,925 420,520
% Y/Y Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL
2017 Q1 12.8% 11.5% -56.6% 1.7% 3.6% 55.3% 0.0% 55.1% 3.9%
2017 Q2 13.3% 8.8% -59.9% -2.2% 3.8% 57.1% 0.0% 56.9% 4.1%
2017 Q3 11.7% 6.2% -57.9% -11.5% 3.0% 56.6% 25.0% 56.5% 3.4%
2017 Q4 8.8% 2.4% -63.4% -14.6% 1.0% 43.2% 25.0% 43.2% 1.3%
2018 Q1 5.7% 3.6% -57.0% -6.2% 1.1% 30.4% 25.0% 30.5% 1.4%
2018 Q2 4.0% 4.1% -48.4% -4.4% 1.2% 16.5% 25.0% 16.5% 1.4%
2018 Q3 2.9% 4.8% -38.9% -1.6% 1.6% 3.4% 10.0% 3.5% 1.6%
2018 Q4 2.6% 7.8% -13.8% 4.6% 3.4% 2.0% 10.0% 2.1% 3.4%
2019 Q1 3.0% 6.6% -9.1% -2.6% 2.9% 5.3% 230% 5.8% 2.9%
2019 Q2 1.3% 5.9% -4.4% 4.6% 2.4% 0.8% 220% 1.3% 2.4%
2019 Q3 1.1% 5.2% -0.3% 9.2% 2.6% 4.3% 200% 4.8% 2.6%
2019 Q4 0.1% 4.0% 8.4% 2.2% 1.1% 1.7% 209% 2.1% 1.1%
2020 Q1 0.5% 0.3% 29.1% 10.2% 1.8% 26% 6.1% 26% 2.1%
2020 Q2 2020 Q3 0.8% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 38.5% 5.8% 2.4% -12% 1.6% 0.8% 41% 26% 9.4% 27% 41% 26% 2.1% 1.1%
% Cross Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL
2017 Q1 67% 18% 4.7% 10% 99% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 100%
2017 Q2 68% 18% 3.7% 9.8% 99% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 100%
2017 Q3 69% 18% 3.0% 9.2% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2017 Q4 70% 18% 2.1% 9.0% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2018 Q1 70% 18% 2.0% 9.3% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2018 Q2 70% 18% 1.9% 9.2% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 100%
2018 Q3 70% 19% 1.8% 8.9% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2018 Q4 70% 19% 1.7% 9.1% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2019 Q1 70% 19% 1.8% 8.8% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2019 Q2 69% 19% 1.8% 9.4% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2019 Q3 69% 19% 1.8% 9.5% 99% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 100%
2019 Q4 69% 19% 1.8% 9.2% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2020 Q1 68% 18% 2.2% 9.5% 99% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 100%
2020 Q2 2020 Q3 68% 69% 19% 19% 2.4% 1.8% 9.5% 8.2% 98% 99% 1.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.4% 100% 100%
12
Maintenance contracts - cars Nearly three quarters of cars under business contract hire are sourced with maintenance contracts, compared to just 25% of those sourced under personal contract hire. Salary sacrifice is the most likely to be sourced with maintenance (98% for the total maintained fleet). Overall, 77% of business funding includes maintenance, compared to 29% of consumer contracts.
CARS
Not maintained 898,722 466,126
Product Type Maintained
ALL
TOTAL 1,364,848
Total New maintained maintained 66% 49%
Business contract hire
Business
562,405
208,451
770,856
73%
72%
Finance lease
Business
6,007
19,786
25,793
23%
3.8%
Business other
Business
8,726
7,113
15,839
55%
26%
Fleet management only
Business
226,225
0
226,225
100%
100%
803,363
235,350
1,038,713
77%
56%
Business ALL Personal contract hire
Consumer
70,095
206,258
276,353
25%
25%
Salary sacrifice
Consumer
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
98%
95%
Personal other
Consumer
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
7.2%
89%
95,359
230,776
326,135
29%
36%
Consumer ALL
13
Maintenance contracts - vans 56% of the business fleet for vans is maintained compared to 12% of the consumer fleet. Business contract hire is most likely to include maintenance, with 65% of the total fleet maintained.
Vans
Product Type
ALL
Maintained
Not maintained
TOTAL
233,773
186,747
420,520
Total New maintained maintained 56% 87%
Business contract hire
Business
189,374
101,697
291,071
65%
66%
Finance Lease
Business
4,935
74,172
79,107
6.2%
25%
Business Other
Business
2,211
5,542
7,753
29%
7.7%
Fleet management only
Business
36,498
0
36,498
100%
100%
233,018
181,411
414,429
56%
74%
Business ALL Personal contract hire
Consumer
747
5,302
6,049
12%
20%
Salary Sacrifice
Consumer
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
100%
N/A
Personal other
Consumer
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
19%
0%
755
5,336
6,091
12%
20%
Consumer ALL
14
Regulated contracts - cars The minority of business contracts are regulated (6.1%); the vast majority of consumer contracts are regulated (94%). With the continuing growth of personal contract hire, a larger proportion of the fleet could be subject to regulation in the coming years.
Regulated Cars
Not regulated 369,647 995,201
Product type Regulated
ALL Business contract hire
Business
Finance lease Business other Fleet management only
TOTAL 1,364,848
Total New regulated regulated 27% 39%
53,181
717,675
770,856
6.9%
Business
363
25,430
25,793
1.4%
0%
Business
5,086
10,753
15,839
32%
12%
Business
4,822
221,403
226,225
2.1%
19%
63,452
975,261
1,038,713
6.1%
2.7%
Business ALL
3%
Personal contract hire
Consumer
274,261
2,092
276,353
99%
100%
Salary sacrifice
Consumer
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
40%
7%
Personal other
Consumer
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
86%
83%
306,195
19,940
326,135
94%
95%
Consumer ALL
15
Regulated contracts - vans LCVs are predominantly financed by businesses, but increasing take-up of personal contract hire agreements is increasing the proportion of regulated agreements, which now account for 13% of the fleet.
Regulated Vans
Non regulated 56,292 364,228
Product Type Regulated
ALL
TOTAL 420,520
Total New regulated regulated 13% 12%
Business contract hire
Business
29,721
261,350
291,071
10%
5.2%
Finance lease
Business
20,017
59,090
79,107
25%
15%
Business other
Business
482
7,271
7,753
6.2%
1.6%
Fleet management only
Business
Business ALL
0
36,498
36,498
0%
0%
50,220
364,209
414,429
12%
5.7%
Personal contract hire
Consumer
6,030
19
6,049
100%
100%
Salary Sacrifice
Consumer
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
100%
N/A
Personal other
Consumer
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
100%
100%
6,072
19
6,091
100%
100%
Consumer ALL
16
New versus used car finance Used car finance accounts for just 2.2% of the BVRLA car fleet, driven predominantly by consumer demand. Although this is a fraction of the market, it represents a potential area for growth in the face of struggling new car sales, particularly as consumers search for affordable ways to source vehicles.
Used car market
Product Type
ALL
30,641
1,334,207
1,364,848
2.2%
New reg Used 0.8%
Used
New
TOTAL
Total Used
Business contract hire
Business
3,487
767,369
770,856
0.5%
0.1%
Finance lease
Business
365
25,428
25,793
1.4%
9.6%
Business other
Business
2,208
13,631
15,839
14%
7.3%
Fleet management only
Business
30
226,195
226,225
0.0%
0.0%
6,090
1,032,623
1,038,713
0.6%
1.0%
Personal contract hire
Business ALL Consumer
4,195
272,158
276,353
1.5%
0.3%
Salary Sacrifice
Consumer
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
1.4%
0%
Personal other
Consumer
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
77%
1.2%
24,551
301,584
326,135
7.6%
0.4%
Consumer ALL
17
New versus used van finance Used van finance represents 1.3% of the total BVRLA van fleet. Unlike used car finance, the small level of demand is driven by businesses, with the majority opting for business contract hire.
New versus used cars
Product type
ALL
Used
New
TOTAL
Total Used
New Used
5,640
414,880
420,520
1.3%
0.3%
Business contract hire
Business
3,389
287,682
291,071
1.2%
0.1%
Finance lease
Business
694
78,413
79,107
0.9%
0.4%
Business other
Business
163
7,590
7,753
4.2%
15%
Fleet management only
Business
1,250
35,248
36,498
2.1%
0.0%
5,496
408,933
414,429
1.3%
0.4%
Business ALL Personal contract hire
Consumer
141
5,908
6049
2.3%
0.5%
Salary Sacrifice
Consumer
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
0.0%
0.0%
Personal other
Consumer
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
13%
0.0%
146
5,945
6,091
2.4%
0.5%
Consumer ALL
18
Contract mileage and duration Data on new registrations indicates that new contract duration and mileage is lower than the fleet average across all categories. LCVs have the longest contract length, with a fleet average of 70,900 miles and four years; for cars, those under business contract hire are secured for a significantly higher mileage than vehicles on personal contract hire, although the duration of contracts is broadly similar, at around three years.
Mileage (mile) Fleet Cars
LCVS
Duration (months)
New reg
Fleet
New reg
Business contract hire
50,600
45,300
39
37
Personal contract hire
24,600
22,000
36
33
Average
70,900
67,400
48
45
19
Profile of total car fleet fuel type The leasing industry and its customers are leading the way towards decarbonisation of transport and this is reshaping the car fleet of BVRLA members. The change is most clearly shown in figures for new deliveries, where orders for zero-emission capable vehicles now exceed diesel by a substantial margin; the trend suggests they will soon exceed petrol to become the most popular option on order books. The impact on the total BVRLA leasing fleet is less dramatic because the volume of car sales covered by new deliveries during Q3 2020 was significantly lower than previous years because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even so, nearly one-fifth of the BVRLA fleet leasing fleet now has some form of electrification.
CAR – FUEL TYPE
% POINT % POINT TOTAL* CHANGE NEW* CHANGE Y/Y Y/Y
PETROL
34%
1.2
43%
-9.8
DIESEL
49%
-9.7
21%
-17
BEV
3.1%
2.4
15%
13
PHEV
5.3%
-0.2
7.2%
3.0
HEV
6.5%
MHEV
1.6%
FCEV
0.0%
BVRLA new deliveries
BVRLA leasing total fleet
43%
49%
36%
34%
17%
21%
6
1.9% 0.1%
11
2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3
12%
Diesel
Petrol
Electric
2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Diesel
Petrol
Electric
20
Profile of electric vehicles and hybrids
BVRLA new registrations electric and hybrid
BVRLA Total Fleet Electric and Hybrids
15% 8.1%
14%
5.3%
7.2%
3.1%
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
BEV
2019 Q1
PHEV
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
Non plug-in hybrids
2020 Q2
2020 Q3
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
BEV
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
PHEV
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
Non plug-in hybrids
2020 Q2
2020 Q3
21
Cars by fuel type and finance product Cars by Fuel Type Total ALL Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only Business ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other Consumer ALL
Petrol
Cars by Fuel Type Additions ALL Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only Business ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other Consumer ALL
Petrol
Diesel 34% 24% 43% 38% 34% 27% 59% 49% 55% 58%
BEV 49% 55% 38% 52% 51% 54% 35% 23% 41% 34%
Diesel 43% 23% 39% 63% 41% 29% 70% 17% 60% 68%
PHEV 3.1% 3.9% 7.5% 1.7% 1.3% 3.4% 1.6% 11% 1.2% 2.2%
BEV 21% 22% 29% 15% 19% 22% 15% 12% 36% 18%
HEV 5.3% 7.1% 6.2% 4.4% 4.0% 6.4% 0.8% 16% 1.2% 1.9%
PHEV 15% 21% 25% 3.3% 23% 21% 4.4% 41% 3.2% 4.8%
MHEV 6.6% 9.2% 5.3% 3.8% 2.6% 7.6% 3.4% 2.1% 0.6% 3.1%
HEV 7.2% 12% 0.8% 8.1% 7.3% 10% 2.1% 23% 0.3% 2.1%
FCEV 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.2%
MHEV 12% 17% 6.6% 11% 8.2% 15% 8.3% 6.5% 0.3% 7.1%
TOTAL 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FCEV 1.9% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
TOTAL 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
22
Profile of total car and LCVs by CO2 emissions Average CO2 emissions for BVRLA member new car registrations fell from 107g/km to 105g/km in 2020 Q3 compared to Q2, a new low and around 8% lower than the national average. The whole BVRLA car fleet showed a slight rise to 112.9g/km. CO2 emission figures for LCVs rose slightly for both the overall fleet and new registrations, but the year-on-year trend is down. Average emissions for total fleet (g/km) 2020 Q3 BOTH* 2020 Q2 BOTH* 2020 Q1 BOTH* 2019 Q4 BOTH* 2019 Q3 BOTH* 2019 Q2 BOTH* 2019 Q1 BOTH* 2018 Q4 BOTH* 2018 Q3 BOTH* 2018 Q2 BOTH* 2018 Q1 BOTH* 2017 Q4 BOTH* 2017 Q3 BOTH* 2017 Q2 BOTH* 2017 Q1 BOTH* 2016 Q4 NEDC 2016 Q3 NEDC 2016 Q2 NEDC 2016 Q1 NEDC 2015 Q4 NEDC 2015 Q3 NEDC 2015 Q2 NEDC 2015 Q1 NEDC 2014 Q4 NEDC 2014 Q3 NEDC
BVRLA
BVRLA
National Average
BVRLA
BVRLA
CARS fleet
CARS New registrations
CARS new registrations
LCVS fleet
LCVS New registrations
112.9 111.3 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.1 113.4 113.2 113.0 110.1 112.6 112.6 112.6 112.9 113.1 114.4 115.3 116.0 117.7 117.8 117.8 118.3 119.5 121.2 121.5
105.0 107.0 109.0 113.0 116.8 118.5 118.2 118.0 113.0 111.3 112.0 112.7 111.7 111.8 110.8 110.9 110.7 111.0 110.7 112.2 112.6 113.0 112.6 114.7 116.7
114.2 114.9 118.3 125.1 126.9 129.7 128.8 128.0 127.0 123.6 122.5 122.3 121.3 121.3 120.5 120.8 120.2 120.4 119.8 120.5 120.8 122.1 122.3 123.1 123.8
162.8 162.5 163.0 164.0 164.0 164.0 165.5 165.8 165.3 167.2 169.7 169.0 169.0 169.4 174.5 174.5
158.9 156.6 157.0 158.0 159.9 161.3 161.7 165.3 161.4 161.5 163.1 160.7 160.7 162.0 165.9 167.6
Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) was first introduced in Q3 2017. From Q4 2018 all new car registrations have been reporting emissions using WLTP only. The proportion of vehicles using NEDC in the BVRLA fleet will progressively decrease until the end of Q3 2019 after which all emissions will report using WLTP.
23
Profile of cars and LCVs by CO2 emissions Business contract hire has shown a rapid decline in emissions for new vehicles, in response to government incentives that provide substantial company car tax reductions to drivers who swap from petrol or diesel to electrified alternatives, particularly BEVs. Customers opting for personal contract hire are much more likely to opt for a petrol vehicle, accounting for 70% of new PCH orders.
180
Car CO2 emissions by finance product
170
140 BVRLA LCVS Whole fleet
g/km
150 BVRLA LCVS New registrations
140
National Average CARS new registrations
130
130
120
g/km
160
110 100
120
BVRLA CARS New registrations
110
90
BVRLA CARS Whole fleet
80
100 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
Date
2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
BCH Total PCH Total
BCH Additions PCH Additions
24
Business Confidence Indicators Business confidence can change rapidly in the current economic environment and even minor changes can lead to a more positive or negative outlook. Before news of the latest lockdown, confidence seemed to be returning, but a third Coronavirus wave and emerging post-Brexit supply issue may have a negative impact in future.
Fleet leasing Sector
UK Economy 100%
BVRLA
100%
CBI
50%
50%
0%
0%
-50%
-50%
-100%
-100% 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q2 Q4 Q2
2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q2 Q4 Q2
Fleet Size
2020 Q2
2019 Q4
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q1
2018 Q3
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2017 Q4
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q1
2016 Q3
2016 Q1
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80%
Confidence measures take the form of improve/stay the same/ diminish in relation to the next six months compared to current. Confidence is reported “on balance� ie the percentage quoted is the difference between the percentage of respondents who took the view and the percentage who held the opposing view. CBI confidence index taken c. one month after end of quarter.