Confidentiality, copyright & reproduction: This proposal is submitted by Ricardo Energy & Environment in response to the request for proposal issued by the BVRLA, discussed in a meeting that took place on 18th December 2023. It may not be used for any other purposes, reproduced in whole or in part, nor passed to any organisation or person without the specific permission in writing of the Commercial Manager, Ricardo Energy & Environment Ricardo Energy & Environment reference
Ref: ED19000
Date Issued: 09 January 2024
Ricardo Project Ref.: ED19000
Client Project Ref.: 7721626
Confidential: British Vehicle Rental and LeasingAssociation (“BVRLA”)
Technical contact: Tom Nokes Senior Consultant tom.nokes@ricardo.com
Approved: Andrea Dall’Oglio Associate Director andrea.dalloglio@ricardo.com
Commercial Contact: Lynn Stone Commercial Manager Lynn.Stone@ricardo.com
CONTENTS
Methodology
KPI Methodology: Demand
KPI Metric Approach
ZEV utilisation rate was used as an indicator of demand in the rental sector. The utilisation of ZEVs is compared to ICE to assess performance, where thresholds were defined as:
Rental Customer Demand (Parked, 2023 = Parked)
ZEV utilisation in rental fleet
Business Leasing
Demand (Cruising, 2023 = Cruising)
Personal Leasing Demand (Brakes on,2023 = Accelerating)
Percentage of ZEVs in leased fleet
• Equal or higher utilisation = Green
• Up to 10% lower utilisation = Amber
• More than 10% lower utilisation = Red
Data was collected by BVRLA by their members. ZEV cars have a utilisation rate of 73% compared to 85% for ICE cars, while ZEV vans have a utilisation rate of 81% compared to 88% for ICE vans. As the difference between ZEV and ICE is greater than 10% for both vehicle types, this metric is given a red score.
New additions of ZEVs in the business leasing fleet is compared to the overall uptake of ZEVs in the UK, where thresholds are defined as:
• More than 25% higher = Green
• Within 25% = Amber
• More than 25% lower = Red
Leasing fleet uptake data was collected by BVRLA from their members and whole market sales data is from DfT. New ZEV additions in the business leasing fleet (44%) are outperforming the uptake in the UK wide fleet (16%), resulting in a green score.
New additions of ZEVs in the personal leasing fleet is compared to the overall uptake of ZEVs in the UK, where thresholds are defined as:
Percentage of ZEVs in leased fleet
• More than 25% higher = Green
• Within 25% = Amber
• More than 25% lower = Red
Leasing fleet uptake data was collected by BVRLA from their members and whole market sales data is from DfT. ZEV uptake in the personal leasing fleet (16%) is less than 25% higher than the uptake in the UK wide fleet, resulting in an amber score.
KPI Metric Approach
Cost of fuel and energy (public)
(Updated metric)
Cost of Ownership (Brakes on, 2023 = Brakes on)
Cost of fuel and energy (home)
(Updated metric)
Cost of vehicle
KPI Methodology: Demand
The pence per mile (ppm) cost has been used to compare running costs for EVs and ICE vehicles. This metric compares the ppm of using public rapid/ultra-rapid charging vs using ICE vehicles, for which an average ppm is calculated using current petrol/diesel prices. Thresholds are defined as:
• More than 25% cheaper than ICE = Green
• Up to 25% cheaper than ICE = Amber
• More expensive than ICE = Red
2024 data is taken from ZapMap. In April 2024, average EV ppm of using public chargers (23) was more expensive than ICE (16.5), resulting in a red score.
The pence per mile (ppm) cost has been used to compare running costs for EVs and ICE vehicles. This metric compares the ppm of charging at home vs using ICE vehicles, for which an average ppm is calculated using current petrol/diesel prices. Thresholds are defined as:
• More than 25% cheaper than ICE = Green
• Up to 25% cheaper than ICE = Amber
• More expensive than ICE = Red
2024 data is taken from ZapMap. In April 2024, average EV ppm of charging at home (7) is more than 25% cheaper than ICE (16.5), resulting in a green score.
The average new vehicle cost of an EV is compared to an ICE, where thresholds were set as:
• Equal to or cheaper = Green
• Up to 25% more expensive = Amber
• Greater than 25% more expensive = Red
Data was provided by Auto Trader, based on the prices of all cars available to buy on the market each month. With a median cost of £49,165, BEV cars remain significantly more expensive than their ICE counterparts (£37,435), resulting in a red score.
KPI Methodology: Demand
KPI Metric Approach
The cost of depreciation for EVs and ICE vehicles is compared, using the monthly percentage movement of the residual cost of a 3-year old, 60,000 mile car. Thresholds for performance were defined as:
Used ZEV Market (Parked, 2023 = Brakes on)
Cost of depreciation
Percentage of dealers stocking BEVs
• Equal to or lower than ICE = Green
• Within 25% of ICE = Amber
• Greater than 25% more than ICE = Red
The data was supplied by CAP-HPI. In 2024, EV depreciation is greater than 25% higher than ICE, resulting in a red score.
Data from cap hpi indicates the percentage of franchised dealerships that are stocking EVs. This reflects a lack of consumer interest across both the new and used markets. The scoring for this metric was defined as:
• More than 75% of dealers stock EVs = Green
• 50-75% of dealers stock EVs = Amber
• Fewer than 50% of dealers stock EVs = Red
With 43% of franchised dealers stocking EVs, this metric is given a red score.
The time to sell a used ZEV and ICE cars is compared, using data from Auto Trader. Thresholds for performance were defined as:
Used ZEV sell times
• EV sell time equal or shorter = Green
• EV sell time within 10% longer = Amber
• EV sell time more than 10% longer = Red
With the average sell times of EVs (31.6 days) slightly longer than ICE (30.5 days) in 2024 thus far, this metric is given an amber score.
KPI Methodology: Infrastructure (1/3)
KPI Metric Approach
Annual deployment of public chargepoint numbers (Source: DfT) from 2015 to April 2024 were plotted against linear and exponential pathways towards the UK government’s 2030 target of 300,000 chargepoints.
Thresholds for performance were defined as:
Public charge point numbers
Public charging availability and reliability
(Cruising, 2023 = Cruising)
% charge points out of service
• Between exponential and linear pathway = Green
• Within 10% below exponential pathway = Amber
• More than 10% below exponential pathway = Red
With 59,670 chargepoints deployed in April 2024, the current trajectory falls between the linear and exponential pathways, corresponding to a green rating. This metric was given a 50% weighting towards the overall KPI, as both deployment and reliability of the network are critical.
The percentage of charge points that are out of service are a common metric for assessing network reliability. The Public Chargepoint Regulations which came into effect in 2023, set a target for 99% chargepoint reliability across the network of to be achieved within 12 months. Reliability levels in comparable regions were used to inform thresholds for performance:
• At 99% or higher = Green
• Between 90-99% = Amber
• Less than 90% = Red
With current levels of reliability estimated at 98.1%, this metric was scored amber. This metric was given a 50% weighting towards the overall KPI as both overall deployment and reliability of the network are critical.
KPI Methodology: Infrastructure (2/3)
KPI Metric Approach
The Public Chargepoint Regulations mandate that CPOs must now use Open Charge Point Interface (OPCI) to hold and open their data, ensuring standards are met. However, there is limited information on the progress towards achieving these standards. Data is available on proportion of the network which has live availability data. Thresholds for performance were defined as:
• More than 80% live data = Green
% network with live data
Public charging user experience (Brakes on, 2023 = Brakes on)
% network this pre-bookable
Ease of payment across network
% of network that is van accessible
• Between 60-80% live data = Amber
• Less than 60% live data= Red
The current proportion of the network with live data was determined using ZapMap data. Over 75% of ZapMap’s coverage has live data, which falls into the amber rating range. In future years thresholds may be updated on the basis of more comprehensive data being available on the proportion of the network with open data, reflecting the target set in the regulation. Each metric in this KPI was given a 25% weighting given their importance in relation to user public charging experience.
Only one London-based CPO was found to offer pre-booking of chargepoints as a service, which represent less than 5% of the charging network. Due to a lack of available data, thresholds were not defined. It is anticipated that thresholds will be set in future years, drawing upon increasing data availability.
Currently, there is no comprehensive dataset on the overall proportion of the network which is covered by roaming providers, but industry estimates place roaming coverage at 76% with a number of emerging platforms. Octopus Electroverse covers 80-85% of UK chargepoints, Paua and Allstar cover over 50%. Given the lack of available data, thresholds have not been defined but an amber score has been awarded based on available information of the market. In future years it is anticipated that threshold will be based on progress towards fulfilling the target set in the legislation.
No dataset was identified on the proportion of the charging network which is van accessible. Due to a lack of comparable information, thresholds were not defined. Nevertheless, this metric was given an equal weighting (25) towards the KPI score, as a lack of data on van accessibility is a key challenge for fleets.
KPI Methodology: Infrastructure (3/3)
KPI Metric Approach
Ease of implementati on (Brakes on, 2023 = Brakes on) Average grid connection times
The performance of DNOs against their targets on time-to-quote and time-to-connect can be assessed using data reported by Ofgem. Thresholds for performance were defined as:
• Met or exceed target = Green
• Within 10% of target = Amber
• More than 10% off target = Red
While 100% of DNOs met their targets for their Connections Guaranteed Standards of Performance, stakeholder feedback and other sources indicate that challenges with power connection for larger commercial installations persist. This results in an amber rating being awarded.
Local Authority engagement (Brakes on, 2023 = Parked)
Local authority engagement with fleets
BVRLA’s fleet friendly charging index tracks local authority (LA) engagement with fleets. Performance is based on the share of LAs with an EV infrastructure plan who are also engaging with fleets, with thresholds set as:
• More than 50% = Green
• Between 25-50% = Amber
• Less than 25% = Red
39% of Local Authorities with an EV infrastructure plan show some evidence of engaging with fleets, resulting in an amber rating being awarded.
KPI Methodology: Supply (1/2)
KPI Metric Rationale
This metric is based on two assessment criteria, with each weighted at 50% of the overall scoring:
1. The share of vehicles assessed as affordable, where the maximum price threshold was set to £30,000. Data on car prices were collected from EV Database, and van prices (for the top 20 models registered in 2023) from OEM published specification guides. Scoring thresholds were set at: less than 40% of total models below £30,000 = Red; between 40% and 69% = Amber; and greater than 70% = Green. For cars, 5% of models are below the threshold, with no vans priced below £30,000, resulting in a red scoring.
2. The correlation between the number of BEV models and the number of total registrations within each price band. Number of registrations within each price band derived using registration data from UK Government datasets and model prices (see above). Scoring thresholds were set using the correlation: Strong correlation for coefficient greater than 0.5 = Green; Weak correlation for 0.3-0.5 = Amber; and No correlation for coefficient lower than 0.3 = Red. The correlation coefficient between models and registrations was 0.35 and 0.3 for cars and vans, respectively, resulting in an amber scoring.
The resulting scores for each vehicle type were weighted by the car and van composition of total BVRLA member fleets. Combining the vehicle type scores resulted in an overall score marginally above the amber threshold. However, given the significance of the reduction in proportion of vehicle within the affordable threshold, and qualitative market analysis, an overall score of Red was assigned.
Vehicle efficiency (mi/kWh) performance was assessed by defining a minimum threshold of 3 mi/kWh for cars and van, and 1 mi/kWh for HGVs. Fleet efficiency data was derived from EV Database (cars) and OEM specification guides for the top 20 models (including model variants) for vans and trucks.
Of the models assessed, 84% of cars, 43% of vans, and 67% of HGVs exceeded their thresholds. These scores were weighted by vehicle composition of total BVRLA member fleets, resulting in an overall score of Green.
Vehicle charging speeds
This metric assessed the ability for electric vehicles to rapid charge, an important factor to ensure deployment in high-mileage environments. For cars, a threshold of 50 kW was used to assess whether models allowed rapid charging. For commercial vehicles, a higher threshold of 100 kW was used to reflect their higher daily mileage and payload requirements. For cars, charging speeds published on EV Database in mph (model dependent) were converted to kW using the average range and battery capacity of electric cars (model independent). For vans and trucks, specification guides for the top 20 models (including model variants) were used to identify the highest quoted charging speed. Scoring thresholds for each vehicle category were set at: over 70% models exceeding the charging speed thresholds = Green; 40%-69% of models exceeding the threshold = Amber; Less than 40% of models exceeding the threshold = Red.
Of available models, 96% of cars, 69% of vans and 36% of HGVs exceeded their respective rapid charging speed thresholds. The scores for vehicle types were weighted by car, van and HGV composition of total BVRLA member fleets, resulting in an overall score of Green.
Vans minimum range
A threshold of 200 miles for van range was used to assess the suitability of current models to high-mileage use cases, with ranges collected from vehicle specifications on manufacturer websites for the top 20 newly registered models (including model variants). Thresholds were set at: Over 70% models exceeding the range threshold = Green; Between 40% and 69% of models exceeding the range threshold = Amber; Less than 40% of models exceeding the range threshold = Red.
43% of top electric van models had a range greater than this threshold, resulting in a score of Amber.
KPI Methodology: Supply (2/2)
KPI Metric Rationale
ZEV product lead time
(Cruising, 2023 = Cruising)
ZEV product satisfaction
(Brakes On, New for 2024)
Average vehicle lead times
ZEV Sales and Origin
(Parked, 2023 = Accelerating)
Aggregated satisfaction with OEM services
In previous years, this metric compared the share of ZEV to ICE vehicles delivered within 6 months. Since the last assessment of lead times in 2023, there have been no changes reported by fleet operators or BVRLA members. An Industry Outlook survey published in December 2023 reports confidence in industry for continued new car supply improvements over 2024. Therefore, for cars and vans, the metric score is left unchanged from as Green (Cruising).
% of sales that are ZEV
This metric assesses the overall satisfaction of fleet operators with the provision of OEM services, through an annual survey of BVRLA members. Scoring for this metric was set at: aggregated OEM satisfaction of greater than 70% = Green; satisfaction of 40%-69% = Amber; and below 40% satisfaction = Red. A survey of BVRLA members in 2024 recorded an overall satisfaction at 69%, resulting in an overall score of Amber.
This metric assesses the development of ZEV registrations considering the ZEV Mandate targets for car and van sales from 2024 onwards. The latest SMMT UK New Car and LCV Registrations Outlook is used to compare forecast car and van BEV registrations against ZEV mandate targets. As well as the headline annual targets (22% for cars and 10% for vans in 2024), we also consider the adjusted whole market targets accounting for early year allowances (i.e. through sale of more fuel-efficient ICE cars. New Automotive estimate the real market wide target for cars is around 17.6%.
• At or above headline ZEV mandate target = Green
• Within adjusted ‘real’ and headline ZEV mandate target = Amber
• Below adjusted ‘real’ ZEV mandate target = Red
Forecast shares of 19.8% for cars and 8.3% for vans fall within adjusted ‘real’ and headline ZEV mandate target, resulting in an Amber score.
Number of qualified
ZEV technicians
Aftermarket Services
(Brakes On, 2023 = Cruising)
ZEV repair times and costs
This metric is weighted 50:50 using: data reported by the Institute of the Motor Industry on the number of dedicated technicians who have obtained IMI TechSafe qualification, and their analysis of whether there is a surplus of shortfall; and the wider Motor Trades . Thresholds for this metric were set as:
• Greater than 10% surplus of EV-trained technicians = Green
• Within 10% of the needed EV-trained technicians = Amber
• Greater than 10% shortfall of EV-trained technicians = Red With a continued surplus of technicians greater than 10% at the end of 2023, the metric was scored as Green.
This metric is weighted 50:50 between: the servicing and maintenance repair times and costs for ZEV and ICE vehicles, using data collected by Fleet Assist; and the repair times and costs of insurance claims of BEVs versus ICE (currently using data published by Thatcham Research in 2023). Thresholds were set for this metric as:
• ZEV repair times/costs less than ICE repair times/costs = Green
• ZEV repair times/costs within 10% of ICE repair times/costs = Amber
• ZEV repair times/costs more than 10% greater than ICE repair times/costs = Red
ZEV repair times are 30% shorter and parts cost 50% lower than for ICE vehicles, however insurance claim costs and repair times are 25% higher and 16% longer, resulting in a metric score of Amber.
