Grant Thornton - Automotive Outlook - EU Exit Deal

BVRLA - Spotlight on business recovery Oliver Bridge Owen Edwards 14 January 2021

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Your speakers‌

Oliver Bridge

Director Business Consulting T: +44 (0)7917 503 489 E: oliver.w.bridge@uk.gt.com 3

Š 2020 Grant Thornton UK LLP.

Owen Edwards

Associate Director Business Consulting T: +44 (0)2078 652 291 E: owen.edwards@uk.gt.com

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The automotive sector outlook UK New Car Registrations 2021

UK New Car Production 2018 to 2025 1.60

1.76 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Best Case Source Grant Thornton & Cax Automotive

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© 2020 Grant Thornton UK LLP.

Jun

Jul

Aug

Worst Case

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1.52

1.40

2.02

2.00

Car production Actuals (m)

New Paasenger Registrations (m)

2.50

1.31

1.20 0.95

1.00

1.04

1.08

2021E

2022E

1.15

1.17

1.18

2023E

2024E

2025E

0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 -

Source SMMT

2018

2019

2020

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EU-UK agreement timeline

31 Dec End of Transition Period

Jan

5

1 January • Global tariffs in place for those that have not rolled over a deal • Physical declarations and customs checks start • NI Protocol in place • Points immigration system

© 2020 Grant Thornton UK LLP.

Feb

Mar

Apr

April • GB-NI full access to all aspects of TSS • NI checks and controls in place

To be confirmed…

• First meeting of the EU-UK Partnership Council • Working Group on Motor Vehicles and Parts Meetings & Agenda • Domestic policy agenda to complement trade policy

May

June

1 July Full UK customs procedures in place 31 Dec Proof of origin grace period ends

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EU-UK agreement highlights What it does..

What it doesn’t do..

• Zero Tariffs, Zero quotas for majority automotive products

• EU Customs facilitations or frictionless border, or eliminate

if they qualify • Rules of origin for electrified vehicles and batteries differ to ICE

• Secure future regulatory alignment and co-operation • Third Country content cumulation

• Grace period for proving origin for 2021

• Free movement of workers

• Auto Annex – working group on motor and parts

• Permanent data agreement

• Maintains data flows until adequacy is decided

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non-tariff barriers

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What is driving the automotive industry?

Short term supply of vehicles Electric vehicles Connected Autonomous vehicles Changing market, e.g. consolidation of companies Regulation 7

Š 2020 Grant Thornton UK LLP.

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Our automotive services

Brexit support Operational improvement

Safe Harbour Support

Raising finance

Tax

Audit and compliance

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Business planning and margin improvement

Š 2020 Grant Thornton UK LLP.

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