BVRLA - Spotlight on business recovery Oliver Bridge Owen Edwards 14 January 2021
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Your speakers‌
Oliver Bridge
Director Business Consulting T: +44 (0)7917 503 489 E: oliver.w.bridge@uk.gt.com 3
Š 2020 Grant Thornton UK LLP.
Owen Edwards
Associate Director Business Consulting T: +44 (0)2078 652 291 E: owen.edwards@uk.gt.com
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The automotive sector outlook UK New Car Registrations 2021
UK New Car Production 2018 to 2025 1.60
1.76 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Best Case Source Grant Thornton & Cax Automotive
4
© 2020 Grant Thornton UK LLP.
Jun
Jul
Aug
Worst Case
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1.52
1.40
2.02
2.00
Car production Actuals (m)
New Paasenger Registrations (m)
2.50
1.31
1.20 0.95
1.00
1.04
1.08
2021E
2022E
1.15
1.17
1.18
2023E
2024E
2025E
0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 -
Source SMMT
2018
2019
2020
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EU-UK agreement timeline
31 Dec End of Transition Period
Jan
5
1 January • Global tariffs in place for those that have not rolled over a deal • Physical declarations and customs checks start • NI Protocol in place • Points immigration system
© 2020 Grant Thornton UK LLP.
Feb
Mar
Apr
April • GB-NI full access to all aspects of TSS • NI checks and controls in place
To be confirmed… • First meeting of the EU-UK Partnership Council • Working Group on Motor Vehicles and Parts Meetings & Agenda • Domestic policy agenda to complement trade policy
May
June
1 July Full UK customs procedures in place 31 Dec Proof of origin grace period ends
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EU-UK agreement highlights What it does..
What it doesn’t do..
• Zero Tariffs, Zero quotas for majority automotive products
• EU Customs facilitations or frictionless border, or eliminate
if they qualify • Rules of origin for electrified vehicles and batteries differ to ICE
• Secure future regulatory alignment and co-operation • Third Country content cumulation
• Grace period for proving origin for 2021
• Free movement of workers
• Auto Annex – working group on motor and parts
• Permanent data agreement
• Maintains data flows until adequacy is decided
6
non-tariff barriers
© 2020 Grant Thornton UK LLP.
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What is driving the automotive industry? Short term supply of vehicles Electric vehicles Connected Autonomous vehicles Changing market, e.g. consolidation of companies Regulation 7
Š 2020 Grant Thornton UK LLP.
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Our automotive services
Brexit support Operational improvement
Safe Harbour Support
Raising finance
Tax
Audit and compliance
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Business planning and margin improvement
Š 2020 Grant Thornton UK LLP.
Transactional advisory