Military Unmanned Systems have become increasingly vital in modern warfare due to their numerous advantages and strategic contributions. These sophisticated technologies encompass unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), and unmanned maritime vehicles (UMVs), each offering unique capabilities for a wide range of military operations.
These systems can not only provide enhanced ISR capabilities, but also enable realtime data collection to provide critical analysis to support decision-making processes.
Join me this fall at the 2nd Annual Unmanned Systems West to comprehensively analyze the latest advancements, innovations, and strategic applications of unmanned systems in the military domain. This event is your unparalleled opportunity to connect with military and government officials, industry leaders, technology providers, and decision-makers, who are at the forefront of shaping the future of warfare.
As the US Navy is moving forward with its plans for a more distributed fleet in which intelligent, unmanned and autonomous platforms will play a significant role.
What do you foresee as the fleet to look like by 2033?
I would expect you to see over the next 10 years an evolving presence on unmanned vehicles, especially with the MQ 25 Stingray, which will be, by then being fully integrated into all the AIRWINGS, providing tanking services for the AIRWINGS, the MQ 4 Triton will be doing regular surveillance patterns for all the Combatant Commanders and the MQ 8C Fire Scout will be integrated in with MH 60s doing both ASW and ASUW missions for the smaller DDG’s and future frigates. As you get closer to 2033, you’ll start to see the emergence of the next-generation air defense and future vertical lift. Both of those will have an unmanned component, the collaborative combat aircraft, which will be flying with the NGAD 6th Generation Manned fighter, will be that loyal wingman concept that the Australians use and will come in a variety of mission capability packages. Also, I believe the future vertical lift will have a similar unmanned capability going along with it as well.
Admiral Mike Gilday, Chief of Naval Operations has called for (6) D’s, “More Distance – Deception –Defense – Distribution – Delivery & Decision Advantage” and the UxS will play a role in all or most of these. Do you agree? If so, is Manned-Unmanned Teaming at the heart of the future fleet?
I do agree. Unmanned systems will have a role in all 6 Ds. To enable all of these mission areas, manned-unmanned teaming will have to become a reality. Unmanned tanking for manned long-range strikes, which will be made up of unmanned platforms equipped with AAW, Strike, EW, and deception packages, will be core to future tactics with the emergence of Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). Logistics will also evolve into providing unmanned delivery considering 90% of the delivery requirements weigh less than 50 lbs. ISR has been and will continue to be primarily served by UxVs.
Looking at the future, where, in your opinion, Bryan does artificial intelligence and machine learning, you hear all about that, you know, what do you see that role in Navy modernization along the lines of what you were talking about or even greater?
I believe AI and ML are going to play a pivotal role in the future of unmanned vehicles, whether they’re air, surface, subsurface, or ground. A recent example is DARPA’s Alpha Dogfight., which they did in 2020, where they had an AI Autopilot operate a simulator against seven other AI Autopilots, and then as a final round, they had it against a manned simulator. In all five rounds, the AI won. That shows the potential of a strong AI, least in an aircraft vehicle, and you can easily transfer that to a surface, subsurface, or ground.
If you look at where we’re going with manned and unmanned teaming, AI is going to be essential, especially when you start to team it directly with another aircraft for the strike package or an air vehicle with a surface vehicle. If you look at the future scenarios that we put these vehicles in where you operate in a contested comms and strong EW environment, you cannot rely on a data link or man in the loop. They’re going to have to operate on their own. So that API and ML capability needs to mature to the point where they can actually operate in that environment. One last comment is how much are we going to allow the AI to run these vehicles in the future?
When we talk about lethality and autonomous platforms, (UUV, UGV, USV, utvs) and look at that whole autonomous vision, do you believe a human will always be in the loop or do you see at some point, systems operating independently completely ?
I don’t think it’s a binary answer to that one. I think we’ll always have some human in the loop for some degree of time and for certain operations, but as I mentioned earlier, when you look into the combat Environment to where you cannot have that assured link that assured comms, you’re going to have to rely on the autonomous capability of the vehicle to be able to operate on its own.
In machine learning, to give it the ability to adjust to changing conditions, it’s really not if but how much. What I mean by that is it’s going to have to be able to operate on its own. If it’s in a highly contested, high maneuvering environment with another aircraft, the pilot of the controlling aircraft is not going to be able to both maneuver himself and control the unmanned air vehicle. In a tightknit communications link, whereas in the long-range as we typically see now with Global Hawk, that range or satellites cannot be relied upon either for assured communications, at least in my opinion, for the future.
So the real question is how much risk are the services going to take and how much latitude will they give these unmanned vehicles with their AI and their ML to be able to adapt to change, but then be able to reel them back in, join up with the strike package or whatever mission they may be in and continue.
Keeping the DoD and US the most formidable Superpower against near peer adversarial threats, where do you see the most opportunity for Industry to affect positive change, saving lives, and costs using Unmanned Systems, A.I. ML. and Robotics?
Future unmanned systems need to take into account the environment they will be operating in. For example, in the Navy, unmanned air systems need to fit and be supported in either a CVN, L-Class, or surface ship environment. This will drive size, range, maintainability, and manning support. Survivability will drive cost. Overall, AI/ML will have a significant impact across all unmanned systems as we drive toward more autonomy and capability.
September 20–21, 2023
Four Points by Sheraton, San Diego, CA
