Coffee Market Outlook 15th Asia International Coffee Conference Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam 7 9D 7-9 December b 2009 NĂŠstor Osorio Executive Director
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
ICO composite indicator price Monthly: January 2000 to November 2009 150
140
130
120
US cents per pound
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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ICO group indicator prices Daily: 1 October 2008 to 30 November 2009 240 230 220 210 200 190 180
US cents per pound
170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50
Colombian Milds
Other Milds
Brazilian Naturals
Robustas
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
World Production Crop years 2000 to 2009 140 129.1
128.1 123.0-125.0
122.6 118.9
120
115.9
113.4
111 2 111.2 107.9 104.7
100
million bags
80
60
40
20
0 2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09*
2009/10*
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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Total production in 2008/09 Vietnam 14%
Africa 11%
Colombia 7%
Brazil 37%
South America 4%
Asia&Oceania 13%
Central America + Mexico 14%
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Production by type of coffee Crop year 2008/09
Robusta 49.5 39%
Arabica 78.6 61%
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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Production in Vietnam Crop years commencing 1990 to 2009 21 19.3 18.1 18
17.5 16.5 15.2
14.9 15
14.2 13.5
13.1 11.6
11.6
million bags
12
9
6.9
7.0
1997
1998
5.7
6
3.5
3.9
3.0 3
2.3 1.4
1.3
1990
1991
0 1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009*
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Production: 10 leading producers 2008/09 (Volume in 000 bags - % of world production) Brazil Vietnam Indonesia Colombia Mexico India Ethiopia Peru Guatemala Uganda
45 992 18 500 9 350 8 664 4 650 4 372 4 350 3 872 3 785 3 200
36.8 14.4 7.5 6.9 3.7 3.5 35 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.6
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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Total exports to all destinations Calendar years 2000 to 2009* 105 100
95.7
95 90
86.8
87.8 85.6
85
93.3
93.5
2007
2008
88.1
87.5 84.9
83.5
80 75 70 65
million bags
60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009*
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Value of coffee exports Calendar years 2000 to 2009* 18
16
15.3 13.6
14 12.8 12
billion US dollars
10.8 10
9.3 8.2
8 6.9 6
54 5.4
5.6 5.2
4
2
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009*
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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World consumption Calendar years 2000 to 2009 140 130.0
127.1
132.0
122.6
120 109.0
110.5
2001
2002
118.5
119.0
2004
2005
112 8 112.8
104.7
million bags
100
80
60
40
20
0 2000
2003
2006
2007
2008*
2009*
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Estimated consumption in 2008: 10 leading markets by volume (in million 60-kg bags) USA
21.7
Brazil
17.9
Germany
9.6
Japan
7.1
Italy
5.9
France
5.1
Russian Federation
3.7
Spain
3.5
Indonesia
3.3
United Kingdom
3.1
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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Consumption per capita: top 10 leading markets by volume (in kg (green equivalent) per year) Finland
12.6
Switzerland
9.1
Norway
9.0
Sweden
8.3
Iceland
8.3
Denmark
7.7
Germany
7.0
Estonia
6.9
Austria
6.5
Bosnia & Herzegovina
6.2
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
World consumption in 2008 (in million 60-kg bags) Africa 6.9 5%
Asia&Oceania 20.1 15% Central America + Mexico 4.8 4%
Europe 50.1 39%
North America 25.8 20%
South America 22.2 17%
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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World coffee consumption Evolution 2000 – 2008 (in thousand 60-kg bags)
2000
A Annual l 2008* growth (%)
Traditional markets
63 377 68 584
0.88
Producing countries
25 604 35 855
3.81
Emerging markets
15 744 25 565
5.53
WORLD TOTAL
104 725 130 004
2.43
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
World coffee consumption: Traditional markets Evolution 2000 – 2008 (in thousand 60-kg bags)
Total European Community Germany Italy France Spain United Kingdom USA Japan
2000 2008* 63 377 68 584 38 005 39 867 8 770 9 554 5 149 5 937 5 402 5 154 2 991 3 485 2 342 3 067 18 746 21 652 6 626 7 065
Annuall A growth 0.88 0.53 0.96 1.60 -0.52 1.71 3.04 1.61 0.72
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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World coffee consumption: Producing countries Evolution 2000 – 2008 (in thousand 60-kg bags)
Annual growth (%) 3.81 3.31 8.03 7.08 1.23 5.50 3.22
2000 2008* 25 604 35 855 13 075 17 526 1 664 3 333 1 189 2 200 1 642 1 833 938 1 518 7 098 9 444
Total Brazil Indonesia Mexico Ethiopia India Others
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
World coffee consumption: Emerging markets Evolution 2000 – 2008 (in thousand 60-kg bags)
2000
2008*
Annual growth (%)
Emerging markets
15 744
25 565
5.53
Russian Federation
1 863
3 716
7.97
Algeria
1 779
2 118
1.96
Ukraine
179
1 733
28.71
1 246
1 665
3 28 3.28
Australia
832
1 145
3.61
China*
859
940
1.01
Others
8 986
14 248
5.26
K Korea, R Republic bli off
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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Opening stocks in exporting countries Crop years 2000/01 to 2008/09 60 55.1
54.0
50
52.7 48.3
41.2
million bags
40
37.1
30
28.3 25.3
20
17 3 17.3
10
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Inventories in importing countries End of June: 2000 to 2009 30
25.9 25 5
23 23.5 21.1
million bags
20
18.8
18.7
Jun-01
Jun-02
22.2
22.1
Jun-07
Jun-08
21.1 19.5
15.5 15
10
5
0 Jun-00
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-09
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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Outlook 2009/10: Supply 1 Production costs – Steady growth in recent years – Prices of main inputs (fertilizers + petrol) oscillating – Labour costs remain high
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Outlook 2009/10: Supply 2 Influence of exchange rates: – In co countries ntries with ith exchange e change rates linked to the US$, price to producer has kept pace with recovery since 2004 – Vietnam: benefits of exchange rate linked to US$ off-set by high inflation 5% devaluation in Nov/2009 – In countries with flexible exchange rates (esp. Brazil and Colombia), appreciation of local currency in relation to the US$ reduces benefit of higher coffee prices since 2004 International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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Outlook 2009/10: Demand 1 Traditional markets 58% of world consumption p Changes in consumption habits (downtrading): – From outside the home to at home – Greater demand for lower-priced brands
Impact on total volume of consumption likely to be limited
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Outlook 2009/10: Demand 2 Producing countries 26% of world consumption Stable domestic prices Impact on total volume of consumption likely to be limited
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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Outlook 2009/10: Demand 3 Emerging markets 18% of world consumption p
Vulnerabilities: – Coffee continues to be considered a luxury item – Devaluation of local currencies vs. US$ increases price to consumer – Macro-economic M i weaknesses k ( (unemployment, l t lack of credit) can reduce demand
Impact on total volume of consumption still uncertain International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Outlook 2009/10: Prices Short term: – Low production in Colombia and Central America increased differentials for Washed Arabicas – Market strongly influenced by exogenous factors (stock markets, exchange rates)
Medium term: – Market influenced by expectations regarding Brazilian production for 2010/11
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World Coffee Conference Guatemala, 26-28 February 2010
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
g{tÇ~ çÉâ g www.ico.org International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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