Conferência Internacional do Café da Ásia de 2009 - APRESENTAÇÃO OIC

Coffee Market Outlook 15th Asia International Coffee Conference Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam 7 9D 7-9 December b 2009 NĂŠstor Osorio Executive Director

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

ICO composite indicator price Monthly: January 2000 to November 2009 150

140

130

120

US cents per pound

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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ICO group indicator prices Daily: 1 October 2008 to 30 November 2009 240 230 220 210 200 190 180

US cents per pound

170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50

Colombian Milds

Other Milds

Brazilian Naturals

Robustas

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

World Production Crop years 2000 to 2009 140 129.1

128.1 123.0-125.0

122.6 118.9

120

115.9

113.4

111 2 111.2 107.9 104.7

100

million bags

80

60

40

20

0 2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09*

2009/10*

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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Total production in 2008/09 Vietnam 14%

Africa 11%

Colombia 7%

Brazil 37%

South America 4%

Asia&Oceania 13%

Central America + Mexico 14%

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Production by type of coffee Crop year 2008/09

Robusta 49.5 39%

Arabica 78.6 61%

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Production in Vietnam Crop years commencing 1990 to 2009 21 19.3 18.1 18

17.5 16.5 15.2

14.9 15

14.2 13.5

13.1 11.6

11.6

million bags

12

9

6.9

7.0

1997

1998

5.7

6

3.5

3.9

3.0 3

2.3 1.4

1.3

1990

1991

0 1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009*

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Production: 10 leading producers 2008/09 (Volume in 000 bags - % of world production) Brazil Vietnam Indonesia Colombia Mexico India Ethiopia Peru Guatemala Uganda

45 992 18 500 9 350 8 664 4 650 4 372 4 350 3 872 3 785 3 200

36.8 14.4 7.5 6.9 3.7 3.5 35 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.6

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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Total exports to all destinations Calendar years 2000 to 2009* 105 100

95.7

95 90

86.8

87.8 85.6

85

93.3

93.5

2007

2008

88.1

87.5 84.9

83.5

80 75 70 65

million bags

60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2009*

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Value of coffee exports Calendar years 2000 to 2009* 18

16

15.3 13.6

14 12.8 12

billion US dollars

10.8 10

9.3 8.2

8 6.9 6

54 5.4

5.6 5.2

4

2

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009*

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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World consumption Calendar years 2000 to 2009 140 130.0

127.1

132.0

122.6

120 109.0

110.5

2001

2002

118.5

119.0

2004

2005

112 8 112.8

104.7

million bags

100

80

60

40

20

0 2000

2003

2006

2007

2008*

2009*

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Estimated consumption in 2008: 10 leading markets by volume (in million 60-kg bags) USA

21.7

Brazil

17.9

Germany

9.6

Japan

7.1

Italy

5.9

France

5.1

Russian Federation

3.7

Spain

3.5

Indonesia

3.3

United Kingdom

3.1

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Consumption per capita: top 10 leading markets by volume (in kg (green equivalent) per year) Finland

12.6

Switzerland

9.1

Norway

9.0

Sweden

8.3

Iceland

8.3

Denmark

7.7

Germany

7.0

Estonia

6.9

Austria

6.5

Bosnia & Herzegovina

6.2

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

World consumption in 2008 (in million 60-kg bags) Africa 6.9 5%

Asia&Oceania 20.1 15% Central America + Mexico 4.8 4%

Europe 50.1 39%

North America 25.8 20%

South America 22.2 17%

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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World coffee consumption Evolution 2000 – 2008 (in thousand 60-kg bags)

2000

A Annual l 2008* growth (%)

Traditional markets

63 377 68 584

0.88

Producing countries

25 604 35 855

3.81

Emerging markets

15 744 25 565

5.53

WORLD TOTAL

104 725 130 004

2.43

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

World coffee consumption: Traditional markets Evolution 2000 – 2008 (in thousand 60-kg bags)

Total European Community Germany Italy France Spain United Kingdom USA Japan

2000 2008* 63 377 68 584 38 005 39 867 8 770 9 554 5 149 5 937 5 402 5 154 2 991 3 485 2 342 3 067 18 746 21 652 6 626 7 065

Annuall A growth 0.88 0.53 0.96 1.60 -0.52 1.71 3.04 1.61 0.72

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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World coffee consumption: Producing countries Evolution 2000 – 2008 (in thousand 60-kg bags)

Annual growth (%) 3.81 3.31 8.03 7.08 1.23 5.50 3.22

2000 2008* 25 604 35 855 13 075 17 526 1 664 3 333 1 189 2 200 1 642 1 833 938 1 518 7 098 9 444

Total Brazil Indonesia Mexico Ethiopia India Others

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

World coffee consumption: Emerging markets Evolution 2000 – 2008 (in thousand 60-kg bags)

2000

2008*

Annual growth (%)

Emerging markets

15 744

25 565

5.53

Russian Federation

1 863

3 716

7.97

Algeria

1 779

2 118

1.96

Ukraine

179

1 733

28.71

1 246

1 665

3 28 3.28

Australia

832

1 145

3.61

China*

859

940

1.01

Others

8 986

14 248

5.26

K Korea, R Republic bli off

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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Opening stocks in exporting countries Crop years 2000/01 to 2008/09 60 55.1

54.0

50

52.7 48.3

41.2

million bags

40

37.1

30

28.3 25.3

20

17 3 17.3

10

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Inventories in importing countries End of June: 2000 to 2009 30

25.9 25 5

23 23.5 21.1

million bags

20

18.8

18.7

Jun-01

Jun-02

22.2

22.1

Jun-07

Jun-08

21.1 19.5

15.5 15

10

5

0 Jun-00

Jun-03

Jun-04

Jun-05

Jun-06

Jun-09

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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Outlook 2009/10: Supply 1  Production costs – Steady growth in recent years – Prices of main inputs (fertilizers + petrol) oscillating – Labour costs remain high

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Outlook 2009/10: Supply 2  Influence of exchange rates: – In co countries ntries with ith exchange e change rates linked to the US$, price to producer has kept pace with recovery since 2004 – Vietnam: benefits of exchange rate linked to US$ off-set by high inflation  5% devaluation in Nov/2009 – In countries with flexible exchange rates (esp.

Brazil and Colombia), appreciation of local currency in relation to the US$ reduces benefit of higher coffee prices since 2004 International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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Outlook 2009/10: Demand 1 Traditional markets  58% of world consumption p  Changes in consumption habits (downtrading): – From outside the home to at home – Greater demand for lower-priced brands

 Impact on total volume of consumption likely to be limited

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Outlook 2009/10: Demand 2 Producing countries  26% of world consumption  Stable domestic prices  Impact on total volume of consumption likely to be limited

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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Outlook 2009/10: Demand 3 Emerging markets  18% of world consumption p

 Vulnerabilities: – Coffee continues to be considered a luxury item – Devaluation of local currencies vs. US$ increases price to consumer – Macro-economic M i weaknesses k ( (unemployment, l t lack of credit) can reduce demand

 Impact on total volume of consumption still uncertain International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Outlook 2009/10: Prices  Short term: – Low production in Colombia and Central America increased differentials for Washed Arabicas – Market strongly influenced by exogenous factors (stock markets, exchange rates)

 Medium term: – Market influenced by expectations regarding Brazilian production for 2010/11

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World Coffee Conference Guatemala, 26-28 February 2010

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g{tÇ~ çÉâ g www.ico.org International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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