RETURNING TO RANGELAND: LAND REPURPOSING IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

by Jack Rice for the California Cattlemen’s Foundation

So far, 2023 has us worried more about what happens when we have too much water, than too little. Atmospheric rivers, accumulating snow and saturated soils have us thinking about flooding more than subsidence. Add in widespread power outages, and for those of us in Humboldt County an earthquake, and it is no wonder everyone is buying emergency food kits.

While the precipitation is a blessing for our parched state and the food kits might not be a bad idea, we all know that the myriad of water issues haven’t gone anywhere. For the most part these issues all seem like threats that we have to battle against, but there may be opportunities amidst the adversity.

One such opportunity for the ranching community may be found in the concept of land repurposing.

It is generally acknowledged that implementation of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) will result in some irrigated farmland being repurposed to another use that consumes less water. While I do not think many readers want to see land come out of production, the reality of land repurposing is no great surprise to many ranchers. For the past several decades ranchers have watched orchard developments migrating into the foothills, with many wondering just how long this would continue. I believe it is safe to say that in the San Joaquin Valley this era is over. Now the question is whether some of those orchards could go back to rangeland.

The term “land repurposing” is a relatively new addition to California’s water policy lexicon. Arriving a few years after passage of the SGMA in 2014, this new term reflects a challenging reality for many in agriculture, but may also offer some intriguing opportunities for cattle ranchers.

The basic principle is relatively simple: in certain areas of California, particularly areas without water districts delivering surface water, often called “white areas,” there is more land being irrigated than can be supported by available groundwater. The result has been declining groundwater levels and a “critically over drafted basin” designation by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).

Until local agencies began developing Groundwater Sustainability Plans as required by SGMA, this imbalance was largely overlooked.

Once these plans were developed, however, it became apparent that change was inevitable.

As with finances, there are only two ways to balance an over drafted water budget: increase supply or reduce demand. Basins with the most significant groundwater overdraft generally plan on doing both. And while increasing supply must remain the primary objective, the reality is that a significant amount of currently irrigated land in the San Joaquin Valley will be repurposed to some other use that doesn’t use as much water.

Exactly how much land will be repurposed and to what use that land will be put is a question that has garnered a lot of attention recently.

In a 2019 report, the Public Policy Institute of California estimated that the total amount of land transitioning out of irrigated agriculture would be 500,000 – 750,000 acres. A study done for the Water Blueprint for the San Joaquin Valley estimates that without better water policies, up to 1 million acres may be fallowed because of reduced groundwater and surface water availability with an accompanying loss in farm revenue of $7.2 billion per year.

Exactly how much land actually ends up being repurposed will depend largely on water policy decisions that are beyond the scope of this article. Whether it is a few hundred thousand acres or a million acres will be determined by whether California takes immediate action to capture, convey, and store more surface water.

But even under the best scenarios, every informed water manager I have spoken with acknowledges that there is not enough water available to keep irrigated all the acreage that is planted. In areas without surface supply some land will be repurposed.

The question is, what will the land be repurposed to?

Numerous possibilities have been discussed including solar, groundwater recharge basins,